How Should the Spurs Spend Their MLE?
L.J. Ellis has written a superb breakdown of the top big men free agents available to the Spurs. I’m with him, and the majority of our commenters, in naming Rasheed Wallace the most attractive free agent available. I’d rank Antonio McDyess just behind Wallace, but beyond those two I’d think carefully about resourcing a significant chunk of their MLE for another traditional big. This might come as a surprise to some, but let me explain.
The Consensus
The prevalent assumption is that the Spurs will target a big with their MLE. Looking at their roster, it’s clear that their front court is a big man short after the trade that dealt both Kurt Thomas and Fabricio Oberto for Richard Jefferson. Around the draft, members of the front office indicated that San Antonio would target a big with their exception money. Come Wednesday, we’ll learn what player they have in mind.
The current frontcourt is Tim Duncan, Matt Bonner, Ian Mahinmi, DeJuan Blair and James Gist (not yet signed, only rumored). Or, put differently, one All-Time great, one role player, and three promising, but uncertain young players. The Spurs would benefit by adding a proven veteran to the mix, especially considering that the best teams in the league feature Shaquille O’Neal, Dwight Howard, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. The best way to attack these players is to draw them away from the rim, forcing them to chase guys off the arc, or make them run through a gauntlet of screen and rolls. Clearly Wallace can do those things, and his length and defensive chops match up nicely with the Pau Gasol’s of the world.
The argument in favor of Rasheed Wallace is convincing. If the Spurs are able to land Wallace, they should do it. Let’s call this Plan A.
A Forgotten Consideration
The only drawback to chasing Rasheed Wallace is the question of contract length. In an ideal situation, the Spurs would sign Wallace to the full MLE for only one year. But it’s hard to imagine Sheed agreeing to such an offer. He’ll want a two or three year deal, no doubt. The reason contract length concerns me is Tiago Splitter.
The Spurs have taken gigantic steps forward this offseason transforming into a younger, more athletic version of themselves. They can continue this trend by adding Tiago Splitter next offseason, but he’ll cost a fair chunk of the MLE. He turns 25 next January, so this seems like a more prudent way to tie up their long term money. If the Spurs sign Sheed to a multi-year deal now, it could jeopardize their ability to sign Splitter later. Aside from the difficulty of committing so much money to the front court, the Spurs may not be an attractive option to Splitter if they can’t offer him significant minutes.
If the Spurs simply let Matt Bonner drop at the end of next season, is that enough? I’m not sure.
I understand that the Spurs won’t, and shouldn’t, put championship 5 on hold for the potential of signing Tiago Splitter later, but he’s still an important consideration.
Thinking Outside the Box
Because of this, I’d like to suggest a contingency plan. The Spurs should not commit themselves to a second rate big (read: Nesterovic), especially at the cost of the full MLE. Instead, they should target a combo forward who can split time behind Jefferson or alongside Duncan at the 4.
The combo forwards I have in mind are (in order) Lamar Odom, Marvin Williams, and Charlie Villanueva. These three players–in their varying degrees of availability–should be more appealing to the Spurs than many of the bigs available. If the Spurs were to follow the contingency route, they’d still need to plug their hole in the middle. I’ll address that in a moment.
Lamar Odom
J.A. Adande recently offered this assessment:
The reality is a team that is looking to spend money could use the midlevel exception of approximately $5.6 million in starting annual salary to make an offer to Ariza, although folks in the league expect the Lakers to retain him. Meanwhile, a Western Conference executive believes “if you’re in position to use the full midlevel for a couple of years, you’ll get [Odom].”
While Odom is more of a 3 than a 4, permanently moving Duncan to the 5 and allowing Odom to start next door is a workable option for San Antonio. The Spurs could play Odom at both forward positions, allowing him his due playing time while providing rest for Richard Jefferson and run for DeJuan Blair and Ian Mahinmi.
Odom is also uniquely interesting because of his ball handling ability. The Spurs could run small or big with as many as four ball handlers on the court at one time. Pop has done this in the past, but always by running an undersized wing at 4. Odom would allow Coach Popovich to run occasional micro ball sets, but with a player who isn’t so micro.
Best of all, Odom in a Spurs uniform is better than Odom in a Lakers uniform. The Spurs get a little bit better, and the Lakers get a little bit worse.
Marvin Williams
Williams is both restricted and less of a star than Odom, but he’s a great player that would fit nicely in San Antonio. He has a good midrange game, emerging three point range, and isn’t a primadonna who needs the ball. I don’t doubt that he could accept a 5th man role without complaint.
The most intriguing thing about Williams is his age. At 23, he’s still a few years away from his peak, but he’s improved his game with each season in the league. In terms of transitioning to the next generation, Williams has the right game and age to stick in San Antonio for several years. This will sound funny, but he could be groomed as Richard Jefferson’s eventual replacement.
The problem, of course, is that Williams is an above average defender against wings and occasional points, not big forwards. He could guard some power forwards effectively, such as LaMarcus Aldridge, David West, Dirk Nowitzki. But his defense against a more imposing post player would put the Spurs at a disadvantage. The other side of this, however, is that Gregg Popovich could throw all sorts of Nellie-like small ball sets at the opposition by running Williams at the 4. For every unfavorable match up, Pop could create one to the Spurs’ advantage. He could play small and quick with the 6’10” Williams. That beats Mike Finley or Ime Udoka at the 4.
And, it should be noted, despite his thin frame, Williams is an excellent rebounding wing. Spurs fans know that Ime Udoka was effective on the boards, even when playing out of position at the 4. Williams’ per minute board numbers mirror Udoka’s. Plus, Williams is a natural catch and shoot player with tremendous defensive length. By splitting his time at both forward positions, it would be easy to get him 25 – 30 mpg.
Charlie Villanueva
The downside to Villanueva is three-fold. First, his defense is mediocre. He wants to be offensive option one or two, and the Spurs would want him as a 5th or 6th option. And he’s not nearly as good a three point shooter as he thinks. The upside? He can score from all over the floor and would punish defenses who slacked off him or over committed elsewhere. The opposing defense would have to account for him. This is how L.J. Ellis put it:
If the Spurs want to go after a young player who could blossom into a star, Villanueva is a good choice. Though he’s more of a small forward, he could get away with playing power forward on the Spurs.
At 6-foot-11, Villanueva is a capable rebounder, picks up a decent amount of blocks and steals, and has improved his passing over the last year. However, where he shines is offensively. He put up 16.2 points per game this past season in only 26.9 minutes per game.
Villanueva can shoot from the perimeter, score around the basket and knock down the mid-range jumper. When it comes to scoring, sky is the limit for him.
The Associated Press is reporting that the Bucks will not make an offer Villanueva. He is available.
The Remaining Problem
The combo forward contingency allows the Spurs to add long term talent to their roster . And, in terms of assets, it allows the Spurs to stockpile a bunch of tradable parts in the event their 2009 reload misfires. Good and good. Still, how much can the Spurs reasonably expect from Mahinmi and Blair. They would still need to add an inexpensive but reliable traditional big to the front court.
As a matter of conjecture, here’s my best guess at the coming roster:
Parker/Hill/McClinton;
Ginobili/Mason/Finley;
Jefferson/Hairston/Williams;
MLE/Blair/Gist
Duncan/Mahinmi/Bonner
So, either Hairston, Gist, Williams or McClinton would not make next year’s team. There is plenty of roster flexibility to add a big, but it would come at the cost of a young prospect. So who would the Spurs target?
Fabricio Oberto is the obvious choice, but represents the last generation not the next. Not all bad. Tim Duncan is last generation too. Oberto knows the system. After Fab Oberto, I wonder about Dwayne Jones, who stood out last season with the Toros. Jones is a scrappy player. He’s great on the boards and could play if the Spurs were in a pinch. Robertas Javtokas?
Talent is Talent
Ultimately, I think the Spurs shouldn’t limit themselves to a traditional big, although prioritizing one makes sense. If Wallace or McDyess are not available, making a run at a combo forward and waiting a year on Splitter seems like a prudent back up plan. That’s my rationale, at least. My free agent wish list is ordered something more along the lines of Wallace, Odom, McDyess, Williams, Varajao, Villanueva, Pachulia, Nesterovic, and Gortat.
The Spurs already have their plan in place. And they’ll unveil it soon enough.
Great post! However I tend to disagree. I believe the Spurs need a legit center. Duncan can play center. But it requires a lot more effort on his part. It takes more of a toll on his body.
That’s why the Bonner’s and Thomas’s played center, though undersized. It allowed Duncan to exploit the matchup.
Sheed would be a good fit. But I think Gortat would fit better. 7″0, 26 and has the chops for defense. Gortat can run the floor and guard the Dwight’s of the world. It would spell Duncan time from center. Sure we will have to throw a multi – year contract at him. But can’t the Spurs trade Bonner?
There are better 4 man in the league then Bonner. Not to mention what Blair can bring. A lot is uncertain. But the Spurs do have a chance to land a good big.
Is there any reason that Drew Gooden wasn’t mentioned in this article?
Did Drew get out of Pop’s favor in the playoffs, or what do you think is the reason that the Spurs are letting him walk away into free agency?
Zeus,
Gooden is a talented scorer, but not much more. The Spurs need to add defense and very specific skill sets. They have enough offense, especially with the return of Ginobili and the addition of Jefferson. If you remember, for as good as Drew Gooden played for the Spurs last season, he still received a DNP-CD from Pop in the final game. He’s just not a good fit. Sheed is twice the player, and fits perfectly.
Sheed all the way baby!! And please find a home for a Bonner. Good guy but so mediocre. When he is hitting threes hes serviceable. When hes missing threes he aint doing anything else. One dimensional is an understatement.
I wonder if Villanueva and Gooden are actually quite similar, and would fare about the same in the System. Both can score but neither seem to be much for defense.
Hollywood,
Good point, except there is a difference. Villanueva can score from anywhere, including beyond the arc.
Thanks for your thoughtful post. I agree with your Plan A scenario whole heartedly. However, I don’t think that signing Rasheed Wallace to a multiyear deal is as big as an issue as one may think. Here is why:
(1) At the age of 35 (by season start), Wallace is not likely to command a deal larger than two year. More than that is just too much risk for most teams to take on;
(2) Spurs can always let Bonner walk next year and keep Sheed as the shooting big. All the while they can give Splitter time as the “traditional” center; and
(3) Assuming Splitter comes next year, the Spurs have consistently held that starting jobs need to be earned. It stands to reason that no matter when Splitter comes he’ll have to earn his post. Forget Sheed of a moment, what happens if Ian or Blair have break out years?
Moving on though… The most intriguing part of your post for me concerns the “contingency plan,” and specifically your discussion on Marvin Williams (a guy I’ve been really high on for some time).
Sadly, even if we extend an offer sheet with the full MLE to William (approx 6M), he is slated to make over 7M next season (according to Hoopshype.com anyway). That’s (1) not enough to pry him from the Hawks since they owe him that money anyway; and (2) leaves us with only the LLE to pick up a big (Oberto may choose a more lucrative European offer after all).
So if we were to get him, I think it would have to come via trade. The problem is that we can’t offer the Hawks the financial relief they seek beyond what Williams already provides them (i.e., he’s an expiring contract too.) I think the only way to nab him is by trading contracts (i.e., Bonner+ Fin package) AND trading our first rounder next year. The question then is, do you think Williams is worth the pick?
CGD,
Good take.
You’re probably correct about Splitter, although there are several variables there. Ian Mahinmi, for example.
Regarding Williams, yes, I would give up Finley, Bonner and a pick. Although, I don’t know that it would come to that.
You would take Rasho over guys like Chris Anderson? I don’t get that, he’s awful.
Yeah,
I would prefer Rasho. Good in the locker room and solid defender against people like Shaq. Plus, he is a good high pick and roll guy. I wouldn’t want Chris Anderson. He’d cost too much for too long–and he’s one off the court incident away from being unmovable. He can be someone else’s headache.
Great post, Tim. I agree with the priority list if we use our MLE on an extra big man. That’s also what the FO said they intend to do with that money.
I’m wondering, though, if we might take another look at the Camby trade again and use our MLE on a back-up shooter. For example, Mason/Bonner for Camby doesn’t quite work, but if we added a sign-and-trade of one of our expiring contracts to that deal (maybe Jacque Vaughan?), I think the numbers would work (don’t know if you can add other players in a sign-and-trade deal, though). The Clips would save money and bolster their back-court, and we’d fill a need while only taking back an expiring contract.
We could then use a portion of our MLE on a bench scorer, which it seems should be cheaper and easier to get. For example, if some starter-quality guys find the economy preventing them from getting more than a mid-level offer from other teams, we might be able to pick up a guy like Mike Bibby, Eddie House, or Anthony Parker who would at least match what Mason gave us last year.
Shawn Marion can play some 4. Might be available for the MLE. Great rebounding numbers. I think he’d be an interesting option to say the least. Wouldn’t be unlike the spurs to sign the guy everyone has forgotten/written off.
Great post Tim/Graydon, although I would like you to expand even more (I’m demanding I know) to consider alternate situations where we make trades to get the big man and if necessary how to address the voids created by this strategy.
Wesley, I believe Marion is too much into himself to come here and be a 5th option and see limited minutes as a “power” player. He wanted out of the best situation possible to be in a place where he could be “the man” despite being very limited on offense and like DW12, being very limited in creating his own shot. But who knows, maybe he has learned something and wants to go to a winning team now.
Channing Frye seems like the proto-typical Spur and you fail the mention him. At 26 he has the time and ability to blossom into a solid 4 and the Spurs can probably get him using 1/2 of their MLB.
http://www.theorangerock.blogspot.com/
CGD
Just throwing this out there…Even though this is all hypothetical at this point I think it’s important to remember that when talking about how we’re competing for all these players who are being offered the MLE by other teams as well (or in Williams’ case maybe a little more) the Spurs can offer them “extra salary” in the form of no state income tax. Definitely a draw for these guys who are probably taking cuts anyway.
Great article Tim. I also liked the comprehensive analysis LJ did for the bigs that we have available to us:
So, basically, you’re talking about two different scenario’s that you see the Spurs going in
1) Sheed OR McDyess at the MLE, and using Hairston/Finley/Williams as Jefferson’s backup
OR
2) Odom, Williams, Villanueva, or Frye (I included him cuz I think he fits our system even a bit better than Villanueva) at the MLE, and possibly Oberto and Dwayne Jones as a backup traditional big should Mahinmi/Blair/Gist underperform?
Personally, I like option two better. It would give us more flexibility to go small with our rotation, but also be able to body up reasonably well against the Lakers (especially if we steal Odom). Plus, it doesn’t fill up the spot that Splitter might fill next year.
Also, why isn’t Gortat higher? We could probably get him cheap (for less than the full MLE?), and he’d be a really good body behind Duncan.
Just a thought…
Even though this is all hypothetical at this point I think it’s important to remember that when talking about how we’re competing for all these players who are being offered the MLE by other teams as well (or in Williams’ case maybe a little more) the Spurs can offer them “extra salary” in the form of no state income tax. Definitely a draw for these guys who are probably taking cuts anyway.
I want to disagree about a few things
1) I think Birdman would be a good asset and I don’t think he’s a headache anymore. He seems to have turned his life around and if anyone watched those specials on him during the Denver LA series, I’m inclined to believe everything is behind him. I don’t think he’ll leave Denver but I think he’s definitely worth a long look
2) Marvin Williams has talent absolutely, he also is frustratingly inconsistent, takes some games off and has some injury history. I think he has a ton of potential but there are some aspects of his game and his approach to the game that definitely need work
3) The posts says that Villanueva is not as good of 3pt shooter as he thinks he is….
I disagree. For a big man, he’s a very good 3pt shooter and a very good outside shooter regardless… this is from “Cavs: The Blog” via TrueHoop
http://www.cavstheblog.com/?p=403
“Most “shooting†big men settle for universally inefficient mid-range jumpers, which makes going to them on spot-up looks a poor play over time. Charlie V’s ability to shoot the three makes him one of the best-shooting bigs in the league; his 46.2% eFG on jumpers means he’s more efficient from outside than Kevin Garnett, LaMarcus Aldridge, Big Z himself, Jeff Green, Udonis Haslem, Lamar Odom, David West, Chris Bosh, Antawn Jamison, the list goes on. Only a few starting big men are better outside shooters than Villenueva, and most of them are well-known three-point assassins: Rashard Lewis, Troy Murphy, Dirk Nowitzki, et al. So the ability to stretch the floor would definitely be the biggest point in Charlie V’s favor.”
So I think he is a very intriguing option too
4) Finally, I think I might be one of the few people on this blog that is not overly excited about the idea of Rasheed Wallace. I would much rather have Gortat or Odom or even maybe Marion than ‘Sheed
TIM
Sorry for the double post – the first one I sent in I got a 404 error so I reposted. oops.
Hey Tim,
As always, first, I would like to commend you on your excellent post. Now to address the issue that you bring up.
I generally agree that there needs to be a big that can play next to Tim Duncan. While Bonner has shown that he can, he’s not the ideal fit. I also agree that for a full MLE, Rasheed Wallace should not be had for more than possibly two years, though preferably for one. Of course, there aren’t a whole lot of other options at this point that can really effectively play next to Duncan. Personally, I’m more of a mind to find a center and leave Duncan at the PF position, but I also understand that outside of possibly Wallace, center-eligible free agents such as Gortat or Pachulia and such don’t bring the skills really needed to help Duncan, that skill set being the ability to spread the floor. While there is the possibility Oberto might return, I also don’t believe he is the answer either. At this juncture, from free agency alone, I would have to say that ‘Sheed is probably the best bet. I believe Lamar Odom would probably be the most interesting piece to look at, though I believe that he may or may not be the answer that we’re seriously looking for. I also have my doubts that Odom can be had for the MLE alone, but I could be wrong about that. In terms of Marvin Williams, I would love him as a wing player, as a solid SF who can nail threes and defend, but with the addition of Jefferson, that makes his role somewhat redundant, as I can’t see either one playing the off-guard position, even then, it doesn’t solve the big man issue. The only other player I can think of that would be effective via free agency would probably be Rasho Nesterovic, and he probably wouldn’t command the entire MLE. Should he opt out, Mehmet Okur would be a dream, but again, not to be had for the MLE alone.
However, I believe that there is still one additional issue then that still needs to be addressed in addition to that of a big man, and I believe it better addressed in free agency than that of a big man. That issue would be perimeter defense. While I don’t see Jefferson as a defensive liability, he certainly isn’t going to be the guy you’d want to assign the toughest assignments to night in and night out. And while Jefferson isn’t a defensive liability, the remaining wings outside of Ginobili (Mason and Finley) are. There are still a couple of tradeable assets that the Spurs have, were I Buford, I would put Mason on the block and see what kind of attention he garners. I wouldn’t be opposed to trading Finley, Mason, and Bonner for someone like Marcus Camby, then filling in the gaps with free agents. My list would include the likes of Josh Childress, Marquis Daniels, and maybe Dahntay Jones. If we were to trade for someone, I would recommend DeShawn Stevenson. However, I believe resolving the wing issue would be easier in free agency.
As currently stands, I believe the roster will have a starting five of: Tony Parker, Roger Mason, Richard Jefferson, Matt Bonner, Tim Duncan with Manu Ginobili, George Hill, Michael Finley, Ian Mahinmi, Dejuan Blair, and Marcus Williams coming off the bench. Outside of George Hill and Tim Duncan there’s no one I would call defensively superior on the squad. I personally believe that Mason, Finley, and Bonner are all expendable, that’s about $9 million of tradeable assets there. Maybe Memphis is tired of Marc Gasol (and thus drafted Thabeet)?
My last resort for the big would be to look in the PF pool and see who’s available and move Duncan to center. As I stated before, Odom would probably top the list, especially while he’s not great defensively, he has the size and length to stop guys in the post, and the versatility to guard faster, more mobile PFs. Otherwise, I like Antonio McDyess, if he were cheaper, I’d say trade for Nick Collison. There’s really no one else I can see that’s promising in terms of being proven and big enough to handle large minutes on defensive assignments on big bodies.
Jace,
Pop has already said Jefferson will be his defensive ace, for good or ill. George Hill and Malik Hairston are good options, as well.
In terms of trade assets, I agree about Bonner and Finley. I’m ambivalent about Mason Jr. What could Bonner/Finley command on the market? I suspect their best return would be camp dump. Miami wants to be a player in 2010. What about Bonner and Finley for Dorell Wright and James Jones? Just an idea. Doesn’t save Miami much, but maybe they would bite.
What do you think? You’re the man on these things.
Jones and Wright would be interesting, and would definitely be upgrades over Finley. However, I’m going to stand by saying perhaps a big can be had via trade.
Boozer has apparently opted in for the next year with the Jazz – doesn’t that mean Millsap is now more available than he was before?
Thabeet is too much of a project to hope that Memphis is fed up with Marc Gasol, if anything he’d be a deadline acquisition, while that is a fairly ideal situation, I’m not going to keep my fingers crossed. I looked in the direction of DeShawn Stevenson because he seems to be the odd man out of the Wizards’ roster with a glut of guards in Arenas, Crittenton, Foye, McGuire, and Young, possibly even Miller. I think Andray Blatche might be another possibility if Wizards want to continue moving in the direction of JaVale Mcgee. Again, I’m of the mind that if we want a quality big man, we give up someone like Mason while his stock is high, since Mason is kind of a “what you see is what you get” kind of player, and I feel wing players can be more easily had (see Flip Murray) than bigs.
On trade possibilities, if I were to revisit Miami, I’d either first offer Moon a contract or ask for a sign-and-trade. I’m not sure who’s in the cost cutting mode, so I can’t say where to look for sure. Another interesting player I might look into would be Jeff Foster.
Nearly everywhere I look, people are overlooking Ryan Hollins. Very young, 7′, pogo stick, energetic, and we could probaby get him for half of the MLE, maybe less.
He likely wouldn’t command a lot of minutes, but he is fully capable of blocking shots and rebounding, and letting the other guys decide who’s going to score this time.
Added bonus, one less annoying bench presence in Dallas, Barea is enough.
This article actually changed my mind on the whole Sheed idea. I didnt want an old guy who is a character issue. But the more I think about it I think he’d be a good guy to teach the younger guys along side Timmy.
The one guy on the list that I would be upset if we settled for is Varejao….I have never seen anything out of him that makes me think he is worth anything…(see Eastern Conference Finals)
And Oberto worked ok in the Spurs system but he wasnt much more than a body to stick in there from what I could see….his defense was ok and his offense was worse….I’d personally rather keep Gooden than bring back Oberto.
I really like the idea of Villaneuva or Marvin Williams, simply because I think a long young player would be good for the Spurs. But then again, Villaneuva wouldn’t be a great fit necessarily and Marvin Williams doesn’t really fill the need of a big post presence to help Timmy out.
Great article and great info. Go Spurs Go!
Foster is paid over $12.5M in the next 2 years which is steep for a one dimensional player. I like the Blanche option though – reasonable contract of 3M a year for 3 more years and he has improved each year he has been in the league. I like Josh Boone from the nets and Ryan Anderson who the magic stole as part of the Carter deal. But it’s unlikely that their current teams would let them go…
There are a couple of nice young bigs capable of making the “leap” next year and I’m sure our FO has a strong feeling about who they might be.
I’m really excited for this FA because I have a real sense we are only one or two more pieces away.
Sheeds still the #1 option. I believe we offer him 2 years at the full MLE, let Bonner go next season to enable Tiago style money, and put Mason (and Findogs expiring) on the block for a perimeter stopper.
In addition, I think the most apt comparison for Charlie Villanueva is Matt Bonner +. He spreads the floor and is dare i say it more athletic…not that mudguts wins the athletic stakes vs just about anyone he matchs up against. He just doesnt cut it anywhere else.
All that aside the main reason you don’t sign Chris Anderson aside from any percieved character issues (and they are there, the guy may be reformed right now but he doesn’t look at all like a spurs guy to me, how many times have you seen Tim Duncan block a shot then pretend to style his hair?), is it negates Tim being allowed to play PF on D if it eases his load. The Birdman is a great weak side shot blocker but he is not 7 foot tall and 270 lbs. If your going to keep Tim at C and can’t find a banger, you go for the combo forward who at least brings a bunch of other skills to the table and gives your team flexibility.
I like Jaces post. Agree with just about everything he says there. I’d entertained the same thought process about Marc Gasol. Do the Grizz really not know what they are holding in that guy?
He is a genuine banger, fearless and wide bodied. Grabbing Thabeet with the #2 Pick sure seems to say to me that the Spanish Grizzly Adams is not in Memphis’ future plans. Poor old Mehmet Okurs agent is apparently after at least $9 million per according to the reports i’m reading. In these seriously stringent financial times I think he may be in for a rude awakening.
If we can pick up a Big solid guy like Gasol through Trade or Gortat through the MLE, we really do make life so much easier for Tim. Of course Gortats going to look for his long term pay day and that would impact Tiago….
So many mountains to climb, so many rivers to cross….
I don’t know why more isn’t being talked about Antonio McDyess. I would prefer us signing him over ‘Sheed. For starters, he’s a much better rebounder than ‘Sheed. His defense is probably only a little bit worse than ‘Sheed, if not the same level. His character, basketball IQ, and ego are unquestionably a better fit for the Spurs. He is also the same age is Rasheed, and has played less games than him throughout his career. Sure, you could argue that he doesn’t have a 3 point shot, to spread the floor for Timmy, but he has really reliable 15-17 footer. And if you consider that Rasheed only shot 42.8% FG, and 35.4% 3P FG, McDyess seems like the better choice for me despite not shooting 3′s, but still having a 51% FG last season.
Now, as I’m sure some of you will probably point out, McDyess’ FT% is significantly lower than Rasheed’s, 70% compared to 77%, respectively. My argument for that would be both of them do not really get to the line much anyways, and I would definitely prefer a significantly higher FG% than a FT%, specially when considering players that don’t really get to the line.
Finally, I believe that McDyess could be had for part of our MLE, and probably won’t require as long a contract as Rasheed (McDyess could be convinced to sign for only one year, or two years tops). With the money that we save, we could focus on trying to get Splitter next year. And even if McDyess is still around next year, he will have no problem coming off the bench, seeing as how he is the consummate professional. Rasheed on the other hand, is not quite.
On a somewhat parallel subject, wouldn’t it have been better if we didn’t have to be worrying about this, and would have offered more money and not just 3 or 4 million (I forget how much) to Yiannis from Greece? Is he a better or on the same level as our free agent prospects that we’re considering using the MLE on?
I don’t know if anybody else has posted this but I think Channing Fry could be a good target for the spurs. He can defend both centers and power forwards adequately, rebound pretty well and the guy can shoot from the outside at a very nice clip for a guy of his size. He would give the spurs everything Rasheed does at half the price and no headaches.
Shawn,
Hollins is an intelligent, under the radar suggestion. But he’s restricted, and I’ll bet my poodle Cuban would match any offer San Antonio laid down. Clever thought, though.
More than one person has suggested Frye. Let me say this: he’s a decent player and might be had on the cheap. If the Spurs strike out with Wallace/McDyess and try for someone like Odom instead, then Frye becomes the other big I’m talking about.
All we need right now is Marvin Williams and Chris Anderson. As far as I know they might be both available. Two cheap, long, young role players that will bring some defence ,transition play and much needed energy of the bench.
Manufan,
It’s one or the other, not both. And either one is a difficult get.
Rasheed Wallace would be the perfect fit for the Spurs. A 2nd twin tower ala Robinson than can make 3’s. People said Horry (@ the time my 2nd choice was Donyell Marshall, thank goodness that didn’t work out) was washed up, especially after the Lakers playoff performance, but he got 2 rings with the Spurs. Plus Rasheed wouldn’t have to exert himself (ala Horry), Bonner could do the heavy lifting in the regular season and have Rasheed take over in the playoffs.
I would still look into a 2nd big (preferably a 7’0″ footer like Nesterovic) after getting a combo forward with the MLE, to bang with the likes of Shaq, Yao, Bynum, and Howard. I still remember how the likes of Kevin Willis and even Will Perdue outhustled Shaq up the floor for layups in the playoffs when they got limited minutes due to foul trouble on the starting center.
McDyess and Wallace are both old. Neither one can guard Dirk or any other mobile 4. Duncan is going to be our starting 5 by position, if not All-Star ballot label. Please, can we get a young, mobile 4? The Birdman is my front runner because he can be the weakside shot blocker we haven’t had since Fransico Elson (not that Elson was a stellar shot blocker, but when Bonner is your 5, Elson looked like Mutombo.)
Duncan cannot be that guy anymore; he must be our frontline guy on the ball in the middle. Timmy’s stats are going to suffer all the way around, but his presence will be even greater this next season. We MUST get younger and more athletic at the 4. Andersen would be very cheap and only a moderate risk, especially with the talent, energy, emotion, and swagger that he can bring.
I’m just sayin’.
You make a good case, however, Odom, Villanueva and Williams will all require multi-year deals.
And only Williams might be had at $5 million per.
If you’re looking for a one-year fix then yes Wallace is perfect. If the Spurs want a building block at center than ZaZa should be considered.
While Gortat is a better athlete, you’d have to bid more than Orlando is willing to match. Considering they traded Battie, I think they’ll match $5 million.
ZaZa is proven and he’s proven he’s not an elite center…so I think he could be had at 4-5 years and 4 million.
One guy everyone is discounting including the evaluation at SpursTalk is Channing Frye. I think it’s too early say he’s soft and can’t contribute – plus I think he could be had for $3 million a season leaving the window open for a backup point guard if Hill cannot handle that role.
You need someone to compliment Duncan and with Mahinmi and say a Frye, you’ve got some length and athleticism and shot blocking to help protect the rim, which I think is what the Spurs need.
Of course, would love to see Splitter eventually come to SA and of course, if we had just brought Scola over there wouldn’t even be a hole next to Duncan.
Can you imagine the defensive havoc we could wreak with Manu, Hill, Jefferson, and Andersen flying all over the place and Timmy just waiting silently, patiently in the middle? That just sounds exciting and scary.
Michael,
What’s wrong with signing them to a multi-year deal?
In my estimation, ATL would match an MLE offer for Williams. Recent reports, such as the one I quoted, suggest–to my surprise, I assure you–that Odom could be had for the MLE.
Re: Zaza. You think he’s available at 4 million per season. That’s probably right. If that’s the case, I’d prefer Splitter and spending that money on a combo forward.
I’m not sure we need another back up point. We have Hill and Mason Jr., plus Marcus Williams and Jack McClinton can both handle.
I’m in the camp that thinks Frye is too inconsistent and too soft.
I can live with McDyess.
I can live with Sheed.
Frye is a player that has had ample opportunity to excel in both Portland & New York. He has not been consistent enough in either locale to earn solid continuing minutes and a spot in future plans.
We don’t want or need that kind of a player, he is not good enough at any one aspect of the game to invest in. He is an Ok shooter for a big, an OK rebounder, an OK defender. We can get that kind of player all over.
Anderson is not going to help Timmy. If we get a big he has to be a big. We need him to play C and let Tims Knees relax a little when the matchup allows. The problem is that he is a weak side shot blocker, and is most comfortable defending PF’s.
He doesn’t spread the floor at all, not even a little bit. It means that the PF can stay at home and not get punished. That means its harder for Timmy to operate in isolation.
Add to that, his “swagger” which to be honest is the same kind of Sam Cassell my balls are massive “swagger” that i hate and to be honest I fell is ill placed on the spurs roster. I know Mason did it last year when he hit that shot vs the lakers but if you remember he was actually parodying Kobe who had done it after hitting a big shot just a play earlier that he though had won the whole thing.
If your going to go with a 4, then you go with a combo forward like williams, childress etc who gives you some kind of future value.
I don’t want Chris Anderson taking minutes we could be throwing at Ian or Blair at the 4 spot anyway.
also great discussion lol, i totally had forgotten about McDyess.
Sorry forgot to mention. Andray Blatche is the model of inconsistencey.
He can shot block and do all kinds of crazy stuff one game then go 0 for 10 the next without so much as a defensive stat to his name. As they say in the classics, he is still a “Project”. I’d prefer Frye which tells you how much i like Blatche.
Is there anyone left that we’re missing? Some euro? I think the Hawks have the rights to David Anderson a big aussie guy in Russia. Might be someone worth looking at?
Sorry, I’m straying from the MLE thread a bit again, but what about this trade idea if we’re looking for a 4 or combo forward rather than a center:
Bonner/Mason/Finley to Miami for Haslem/Jones
Miami gets more 2010 cap space by shedding Jones’ contract, and we address our 2 biggest needs while freeing up a roster spot to resign Oberto or Thomas if they’re released, and it still leaves us with our MLE money to add another front-court player.
Haslem doesn’t fill up the stats sheets, but he’s one of the toughest defenders in the league — he shut down Dirk in the last 4 games of the 06 finals. Jones plays D and hits 3′s — on paper, that’s exactly what we’re looking for in a back-up SF. Both seem like Spurs types of players.
If we then target a true center with our MLE, I think we’re in great shape.
Tim,
For what it’s worth, I the article you quoted about potentially being able to get Odom for the MLE was from June 13th. If I’m not mixing up my timelines, a lot has changed since then – in particular three contending teams have all made significant additions to their rosters. The impetus for the Lakers to re-sign both Odom and Ariza is probably stronger. I personally am skeptical (as you likely were) that he is a possibility.
I think Wallace and Odom, if possible for the MLE, are the top two targets, with a big drop off after that. And to be honest, I don’t know which I would prefer. Wallace brings the IQ, post excellence, and shot blocking, but Odom is much younger, and a better athlete who can guard the David Wests, LaMarcus Aldridges, and Dirks, not to mention combo 4s. With Odom, you know you’re getting every skill rolled up into one player, but I think he showed this year that he can be a perfect complimentary player, as he’ll pick and choose his skills depending on what his team needs, being able to rebound and score when Tim’s knees are aching, or pass and space when he’s at full force. Not to mention our ability to run true fast breaks if he, TP, and RJ are on the floor, while Tim can take the play off. Not to mention I’d feel a lot safer giving a multi-year deal to Odom than Rasheed, just on an age issue.
Also, Artest should be mentioned, if for nothing else than considering the full spectrum of options. He can definitely play small-ball 4, and would bring all the elite defensive and scoring skills we know he has. The question is always the head, and I think Tim and Pop have enough of a chance to keep him in control that we should take the option and evaluate it seriously. Because if we added him successfully to our SA brew, our defense would take another huge leap forward when it comes to shutting down the perimeter. Forgive me if Richard Jefferson, for all his talent, being our Kobe-LeBron-Vince-Melo etc stopper after years of Bowen’s brilliance worries me some.
Will the Spurs have Bowen and/or Oberto back? If so would Oberto need to be waived by July 1 and Bowen waived by August 1? If the Spurs get Sheed, where would that place them among the contenders? Is it likely De Colo will stay in Europe? How many of the Spurs free agents are likely to leave out of Vaughn, Udoka and Gooden? Who are the two most likely to play for Toros from the eventual 15 man roster? When is the summer league roster sorted out?
Jon i agree with you about Odom. If its multi year then he has to get preference. He’d be a tremendous asset.
I’d just like to play devils advocate here with Artest for a moment. There are various positives about his game when played within a team system. However..
He took some horrible horrible shots in Houstons playoff run. He laid the blame for his poor shooting at the end of that run squarely on an injured chest/shoulder. If he knows he can’t shoot, wtf he was continually jacking up contested off the dribble 3′s.
Also if you get Artest, you then have RJ, Artest, at SF fighting for minutes, and Artest has never been pleasant about being sat down. I.E go read through his history with Reggie Theus in Sacremento.
Theres a reason all he cost Houston was Donte Greene, a first rounder (Casspi) and bobby jackson. He is a very loose cannon. I understand he served his suspension, but is someone who goes into the stands to fight fans, a spurs kind of guy?
He is extremely ball hungry. Is known to dribble out the shot clock, and despite his stellar D, has never buckled down and played within a team concept for any length of time. His got more red flags than a Matadors closet.
Cam, I am no expert but just to my way of thinking,
Vaughn is gone for sure, Udoka is nearly certainly gone, and Gooden is also nearly certainly gone.
The most likely players to stay around the Toros next year are Malik Hairston, Marcus Williams, and James Gist probably in that order. It is very dependant on who gets snared during free agencey.
I.E Odom would seem to negate Marcus Williams, he can play the point forward position and is a proven performer. Hairston would probably be 3rd on the depth chart at SF right now behind RJ & findog, and he and Gist areplaying for an NBA roster slot this summer league.
Can free agents be signed on July 7 at the earliest? I hear Oberto and Bowen will likely be waived, so a good chance to return for Spurs, at least one of them? Do people think it is 50/50 that Sheed will choose Spurs?
After the Spurs traded for Jefferson, RC Buford said that Peter Holt challenged him to make moves that would improve the team. Many fans took this to mean that he had the go-ahead to spend the entire MLE on a big free agent, and all of the media outlets encouraged this angle by saying the Spurs were in the mix for Sheed. But the Spurs tend to go against conventional wisdom with many of their moves, and I’m still having a hard time seeing the small market, frugal Spurs owning one of the largest payrolls in the league next season. Last year many thought Maggette or Salmons might come, but it turned out to be the cheaper and more unheralded Roger Mason. In last year’s draft, many mentioned Chalmers or Courtney Lee, but it turned out to be the unheralded George Hill instead. I see the Spurs surprising us again with a middle tier free agent who is not a star or a big name. Who? I have no idea.