Kawhi Leonard: Gregg Popovich’s Monster
For years we’ve watched the development behind the scenes, as Spurs assistant coach Chad Forcier ran Kawhi Leonard through daily one-on-one drills that seemed simple and repetitive, yet clearly beneficial. Two-dribble pullups, left- and right-handed hook shots, baseline drives from both sides — each attempt looking exactly like the one before it. We all joke about Leonard’s robotic nature, that he’s a product of the Spurs’ machine and a Gregg Popovich laboratory experiment, but the truth is, that assessment is less jest than most think.
As the building blocks were being assembled, we wondered what sort of creature would emerge. It’s not often a player with such a raw set of offensive skills and somewhat average lateral quickness (for an NBA player, at least) develops into a star scorer. The 3-point shot developed early, but we can attribute that to spacing and perhaps the world’s best shooting coach; the defense, rebounding, and inside scoring ability really emerged during his second year, especially during the 2013 NBA Finals, but you’d expect that from a 6’7, 230-pound monster with a 7’3 wingspan and hands the size of tire rims.
The real questions were: Can he beat his man off the dribble when hounded on the perimeter? Can he handle the ball in Pop’s pick-and-roll system? Can he get his shot off whenever he wants, from anywhere on the floor? And when he’s caught up in a double-team or trap, can he find the open man and make the on-target pass? We’re finding out the answer to all these questions is the same: Yes. And it’s all happening right before our eyes in relatively staggering fashion.
Leonard’s Finals performance of 10 months ago left an indelible mark as his coming-out party, but we still had no evidence he could produce like that consistently. Popovich often remarked how the next step in his small forward’s development would be showing that sort of impact on a nightly basis, not just for a few games here and there. The early stages of his career had been cushioned by the soft landing pad Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili provide any player who finds his way through San Antonio, but the time to return the favor had approached quickly.
He had already helped revive the Spurs’ defense to contending form, but in an increasingly young and explosive NBA, the Big 3 needed more offense from a guy whose usage had never exceeded 18.3 percent and who only had a handful of plays designed to feature him as the top option.
Things didn’t exactly go smoothly for Leonard following San Antonio’s title-winning season, however. The Spurs didn’t extend his rookie contract (for good reason), which inevitably made all the headlines; he contracted a freak eye infection during the team’s preseason trip abroad that forced him to miss the regular-season opener and continued to affect his play upon his return; and he suffered a torn ligament in his shooting hand that kicked him to the bench for more than a month.
In a contract year, for a guy who was expected to shoulder a heavier workload, in a bid for the franchise’s first-ever repeat championship, things got off to a pretty awful start. Even as he returned to the starting lineup with a clean bill of health, Kawhi was not thriving in his increased role, and neither were the Spurs.
Prior to Feb. 27 — which marked the return of Tiago Splitter to the starting lineup and the start of San Antonio’s surge — his usage had jumped significantly, up to 22.5 percent, but the efficiency with which he played over the first three years of his career had fallen off precipitously. Leonard’s true-shooting rate had dropped to 53.2 percent, down from 60.2 percent the previous season, and he was struggling to grasp the reins of the system.
Over the first 39 games of his season, Kawhi’s offense was damaging for his team. The Spurs were scoring .768 points per possession (ppp) when Leonard was the primary ball-handler in the pick-and-roll, .776 ppp when he initiated offense in isolation situations, and just .783 ppp out of post-ups, according to Synergy Sports data provided to 48 Minutes of Hell. San Antonio as a team was scoring only 103.5 points per 100 possessions (pp100p), which amounted to the 13th best offense in the NBA at the time, a far cry from what it had been the previous couple of seasons. Of course, the hamstring injury to Parker and his lengthy recovery didn’t help matters at all, but that wasn’t what Leonard or the Spurs envisioned as they found themselves at 34-23 and balancing their heels on the back side of the playoff picture.
Then came the aforementioned return of Splitter to his regular starting spot, and with it, a Kawhi explosion. Not only has his usage jumped to 24.3 percent since that time, but his efficiency has mushroom-clouded (I made up a verb) on the back of a 62.7 true-shooting percentage.
The Synergy numbers might be even more impressive. Not only is he initiating pick-and-rolls, isolating, and posting up more often, but the Spurs are scoring at a ridiculous rate as a result. Since March 1, San Antonio is registering 1.1 ppp out of Leonard pick-and-rolls, 1.06 ppp in isolation situations, and 1.2 ppp when Kawhi drops down to the post, an increase of .29, .25, and .43 ppp, respectively.
Leonard’s defensive impact hasn’t lessened as a result of this offensive eruption, either. Over the last 21 games, the Spurs are outscoring opponents by 21.7 pp100p when Kawhi is on the floor while holding them to just 95.5 pp100p, and he’s flipping turnovers into points like a madman, using his arms and hands as snake-like extensions that strike and recoil in the blink of an eye.
Since Splitter’s return to the lineup, San Antonio is scoring 20.1 points per 48 minutes off turnovers when Leonard is on the floor, and just 15.2 when he’s on the bench. That would be the difference between the 2nd- and 21st-best marks in the league. And in an NBA era that’s been built on the pick-and-roll, Kawhi is blowing everything up. He’s holding PnR ball-handlers to .589 ppp this season — which is in the 90th percentile — and he’s forcing a turnover once in every four such possessions, per Synergy Sports.
What we’re watching in Leonard — a menacing defender who can guard anybody and is quickly finding out on the offensive end that he’s too big to handle for the majority of players at his position — is very rare. He is becoming the NBA’s pre-eminent two-way beast, contributing in every facet of the game. The discussion is no longer if he’ll become an All-Star, but when — so long as he stays healthy, obviously.
According to ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus metric (a player’s estimated on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions — RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors), Leonard has been the third-most impactful player in the league this year, just behind James Harden and Steph Curry, and ahead of the likes of LeBron James, Chris Paul, Anthony Davis, and Russell Westbrook.
Still, there has to be at least some uncertainty with the playoffs just days away. While Leonard’s emergence has helped propel the Spurs into another stratosphere since Feb. 27 — they’re beating teams by 15.8 pp100p during that time — there’s no question this team has become more top-heavy than it has been in recent years. With Kawhi on the floor this season, San Antonio is 12.1 points better than its opponents per 100 possessions, but just plus-1.1 when he’s on the bench. And the difference has been even more stark over the last 21 games — a net rating of 21.7 when he plays as opposed to 4.8 when he sits.
Should Leonard fall back to earth at some point, the Spurs might be in trouble if their bench doesn’t reignite the spark from almost a year ago. But there are no signs of regression at the moment, only progression. He is getting better with every game, and San Antonio’s chances at its first ever repeat are growing as Kawhi does.
From Pop’s laboratory to the Finals MVP stage and beyond, a monster has been created — one whose physicality belies his stoic demeanor. He’ll destroy you, and you’ll never hear it coming.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball-Reference and Synergy Sports.
