Looking back at the trade

by Jesse Blanchard

“What the Spurs lose is their best combination of shooting, defense, and competent (though not spectacular or dynamic) ball handling. But so far as skill sets go, [George] Hill on offense was a dime a dozen shooting guard with some plus ball handling ability that fulfilled the role far better than most role players.

Defensively he was not Bruce Bowen, and likely never will be. This is not a criticism of his game, nor does it suggest that his presence will not be sorely missed. But to get better something had to give. And in Gary Neal, James Anderson, and some hopeful combination of Green or Butler, the Spurs can spell George Hill. What they cannot spell is a productive small forward who can hold his own in small lineups.”

-How Gregg Popovich could trade his favorite player, 48MoH

The Indiana Pacers will be in town this weekend, reuniting George Hill with the organization that drafted and nurtured his game through the first three years of his NBA career.

Back in the summer, when the trade was made, a home game against the Indiana Pacers would have been billed as “George Hill’s much anticipated return,” however, the “much anticipated” part becomes more muted with each sign of progress from Spurs rookie Kawhi Leonard.

Instead, Hill returns an ex-flame whom we recall fondly; though admittedly one that rarely crosses our mind at all these days.

That’s not so much a slight at Hill as it is a testament to how perfect a marriage the San Antonio Spurs and Kawhi Leonard have been.

It was only two years ago that national pundit and local fans were pushing the San Antonio Spurs to trade Tony Parker in favor of the cheaper, younger, and up and coming George Hill. But moving Parker then, even for a promising defensive big man, would have opened up a whole new set of problems the Spurs would have had to address.

And with another season with almost no statistical growth relative to his career numbers, coming off the end of his rookie season, the cheaper and up and coming labels for George Hill will have diminished some.

His time with the Spurs was always going to be limited so long as they employed Parker and Manu Ginobili. Hill was the Spurs fourth best player playing the same position as two of its best three players, and while he was a nice luxury, his skill set overlapped with theirs and ultimately provided nothing unique to the Spurs, just varying degrees of better and worse.

The Same, But Better

To accommodate Hill, the Spurs resorted to three guard sets, which hurt them against opponents with larger wings, as we saw in Memphis. The further Hill moved away from defending his natural point guard position, the less valuable his defensive prowess was. And again, defensive point guards are a nice luxury but can be a tad overrated in terms of impact.

It’s for these reasons I wrote if Kawhi Leonard simply turned out to be a role player of the same quality as Hill, the Spurs would have massively upgraded simply for having diversified their skill sets and upgrading a position of weakness at small forward.

To date, he has fulfilled that prediction, as the numbers show:

Player	PPG	RPG	Blk/Stl	APG	FG%	3FG%	MPG	PER
George Hill 2010-11	11.6	2.8	1.2	2.5	45.3	37.7	28.3	14.64
Kawhi Leonard 2011-12	8.3	5.4	1.8	0.9	49.7	38.3	24.8	17.08
Kawhi Leonard (Starting SF)	13.8	7.8	2.3	1.2	55.7	42.3	33.2	—

 

The nine games Leonard has spent as the team’s starting small forward are a small sample size, but the numbers should be sustainable even if the three-point shooting regresses some, and long-term there stands room for improvement. And though I realize focusing in on Hill’s starting numbers would have granted him a statistical boost, for the purposes of this analysis I left them off because Leonard is a full-time starter now, whereas Hill only served as an emergency stand-in during injuries.

Dime-a-Dozen Shooting Guards

“What George Hill has been capable of doing in his brief NBA career is provide quality defense–more versatile than lock down, but quickly reaching that status–while providing better than average competency in your standard dime a dozen shooting guard skill set on offense.”

-The other shoe has finally dropped; now does it fit for Hill? 48MoH

Hill mostly retained his value because the low costs of his rookie contract. In the grand scheme of the NBA, the “Three-and-D” role player is important to the Spurs system, but one that is easily replaceable—even if Hill shows better proficiency at it than most.

If Kawhi Leonard alone justifies this trade, and he does, the development of Danny Green as a rotation player puts this move decidedly in the Spurs favor.

Player	PPG	RPG	Blk/Stl	APG	FG%	3FG%	MPG	PER
Danny Green 2011-12	8.4	3.7	1.6	1.4	41.5	38.2	23.7	13.82

While Green represents a downgrade (even with slightly improved numbers post All-Star break) from Hill, that he has been able to fit the same role around the league average closes much of the gap from what the Spurs surrendered in the trade, while also finding more time for Gary Neal.

Defensively, Green proved to be just as versatile a defender, having spent time on everyone from Chris Paul to Kevin Durant, and from my observations appears to excel in fighting over screens; remaining attached to the ball handlers hip without fouling.

Solving for Pattern

But perhaps the most important part of the trade is that the Spurs appear to have, in the words of Timothy Varner, solved for pattern.

“Richard Jefferson is a problem. He’s overpaid. He under-performs. His contract threatens to cripple the Spurs under a more restrictive, cap-tight CBA. Jefferson is a mediocre defender but the Spurs need a wing stopper and the only thing RJ’s defense has put a stop to is Gregg Popovich’s long suffering, patient, and tender disposition.

RJ is, in hindsight, a bad solution. He didn’t improve the thing he was meant to fix wing production; Bruce Bowen was 10x the basketball player RJ is, box scores be damned! And his presence has created new problems that didn’t exist prior to his arrival. He’s an organ that is polluting the organism.”

-On the Spurs, the 2011 NBA Draft, and solving for pattern, 48MoH

The depth and versatility that so enriches the Spurs this season has been made possible solely by the better than expected production of Kawhi Leonard.

Without Leonard proving ready to take over the starting small forward position, do the Spurs take on a risk like Stephen Jackson? Without his rebounding presence from the small forward position, could the Spurs maximize the strengths of its frontline?

For all its versatility, there isn’t a dominant rebounder on the front line beyond a fully engaged Tim Duncan. Leonard’s unique skill set and length, not to mention the addition of Stephen Jackson, allows Popovich to deploy a number of different combinations that somehow make perfect sense.

In short, even if Leonard did not prove to be the better player—and all indications are that he will—he already has proven to be the better fit.