Monday, April 6th, 2009...7:38 pm

Losing at Russian Roulette

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The fan in me wants to rally the troops, to find a reason to believe that all is not lost. But Manu Ginobili is done for the year; Tim Duncan is running on tired legs. The Spurs hopes of a fifth championship run are pushed, in knowing resignation, into the yet to be written pages of preseason prediction.

Pundits have often said that the Spurs’ advanced age would be their undoing. But Coach Popovich, and all the rest of us, myself included, liked to glory in the fact that the team is “old as dirt.” There is a great advantage to having a team steeped in professionalism and veteran savvy. Every season-even this unfortunate, injury riddled campaign-is a quiet march to 50+ wins. In their worst years, the San Antonio Spurs are better than all but a few teams. Take this year: there hasn’t been a single stretch when the Spurs were firing on all cylinders, but I’d still pick them, sans Manu Ginobili, in a 7 game series against every team in the league, save the Cavs, Lakers, Celtics and Magic. That’s an incredible statement, I know. But it’s true. Let it sink in. This franchise is measured by a standard of excellence that is inconceivable to most. But the punditry of decline spoke clearly, just over the shoulder, predicting demise. “They’re too old,” the voices buzzed and droned. “They’re too old.”

But the Spurs were willing to play the game of Russian Roulette; the Spurs were willing to bet that a team loaded with veterans had a 5 in 6 chance of pushing through to a championship. It was an all or nothing gamble that had paid off several times over. One cannot overstate how crucial the presence of veteran role players has been to San Antonio. The Spurs took their chances, and the gun never discharged. Click. Click. Click. Deep breath. Click. Click. They were winning at Russian Roulette. Until now. This is the season the bullet revolved into the chamber. When the Spurs pulled the trigger, the season collapsed to the floor, clumsily slumping toward death.

Need I remind you? Manu Ginobili is showing that his body is increasingly fragile. Every bit the hero, Manu Ginobili is now relegated to a suit, forced to sit behind the bench muttering “Judas” to his feet. He began the season on the shelf, and has since returned. The seemingly ageless Bruce Bowen is seemingly absent. An all NBA defender a year ago, the 37 year old defensive stopper is approaching his stop. Kurt Thomas is still a good defender, but his lateral mobility is quickly morphing into that of a bowling ball in mud . He will be 37 next season. Michael Finley, at 36, is better suited as a deep bench option, not as a starter logging 30+ minutes per game. And Tim Duncan? His tired legs are this season’s memorial to mortality. All things go.

Where do the Spurs go from here?

Strangely enough, I believe the answer is to immediately begin building for a fifth championship. The season is lost, but the franchise is far from ruin. It’s time to reload, to find a way forward. What this entails for this season is fairly simple: let the young guys play. Provide them with postseason minutes. How far can Tony Parker and half of Tim Duncan drag Drew Gooden, Roger Mason Jr., George Hill and, perhaps, Malik Hairston into the playoffs? I’d like to know. For reasons related to Peter Holt’s pocketbook and the development of their bench, I’d like to see the Spurs point their face like a flint toward the Western Conference Finals. 10 home playoff games places a big bright healthy smile on the faces of revenue and reconstruction. Give the fans a sense of better days to come. Get them excited for next season.

The Spurs are not far removed from returning a championship squad next season, health provided. But what the Manu Ginobili injury, and the ravages of age, mean for the off season is the stuff of a future post. It would be foolish to say his continuing injuries do not raise macro questions. But what this means for the front office, his contract, and the supporting cast is not yet clear. I do know this: any meaningful postseason experience the Spurs can provide George Hill will pay huge dividends later. In San Antonio it’s all about winning championships. This season’s aspirations have gone like sand through the fingers. But next season’s hopes remain a nice wet lump of clay. Sit down, Pop. Start turning the wheel.

33 Comments

  • This is just so sad, I think all of you should get on Manu’s page on FB and leave some messages of support.

    Next season all will be better: http://www.facebook.com/home.php?#/pages/ManuGinobili/71769686933

  • Absolutely brilliant post. I found out about the injury during a Con Law class this evening. Less than an hour after I got out, I received a text from a friend. “Should have traded Manu a while ago. Told ya.”

    Do you agree? I don’t for several reasons. (1) Manu’s too valuable to this team. He knows the system like clockwork, has excelled in it, and is forever cemented on the SA Mt. Rushmore as part of the Big Three. (2) The market sucked this year, and there is no reason to expect that what little we would have got in return would have paid any sort of dividends this postseason. (3) Yes, he played in the Olympics. Yes, I was upset. But he has heart. That’s why he played. He can’t help but play 100%, 100% of the time. Even when his body won’t let him.

    In a later text, another more optimistic friend put it better than I am now. When it’s your year, you just feel it. As a fan, you just know. I got it in 2007. Celtics fans got it last year. Cavs fans are getting it this year. I haven’t really felt that way all year long. Next year’s another story, though. You’re right. If we want to feel that way next season, we have to start investing now to see dividends in 2010.

  • An uplifting post but this is really hard to take. I’d put this up there with the .4 shot and the manu foul against the mavs. Time to go get lifted.

  • Its sad to see Manu out for the season. But this could be a blessing in disguise. The Spurs need to invest in young players this summer. The Spurs have a whole stock full of talent in Austin. It would, also behoove the Spurs to invest in a wing player that isn’t over 30, or close to 30. To, me this forces the Spurs to, cringe, spend money on young talent.

    I like the idea of that. It seems the Spurs rode the old savvy vets, a bit too long. The Spurs now look to the future of the next group of players.

    This would enable the Spurs to start building around Parker. Give him shooters, and high-flyers. Get a decent post player (cough, cough Drew Gooden). Lower the minutes Duncan plays. The Spurs can still be in contention.

    But it requires the Spurs to take risks and to remain smart at the same time. To be frank, I’m little excited of the prospect, of getting young fresh legs in the Alamo City

    The Spurs need to look real deep this summer. This summer could be a setback, or a transition in the right direction. I’m hoping for the latter.

  • Well now we expect to lose. So Spurs should just go out there and play ball. Let’s see what happens.

  • Excellent post and I too wonder how Pop will play this and hope the young guys get playoff minutes; they have the unknown/x-factor that we will need and Manu always provided. If the Spurs go down in the 1st for the first time since 2000 (another post-season cut short via injury), the one upside would be rest for TD and even TP plus the hard reality that some changes are needed. But if our guys once again take down some hopeful upstart in the 2nd round, I’ll feel as proud as I can without having a championship to show for it. Everyone already had us buried and yet what flawed team in the West is supposed to take down S.A., even sans Manu, outside of L.A.? The optimist in me says, get focused, finish with home wins over Portland, Utah (keeping both winless in S.A. since 2002 and 1999 respectively) and New Orleans. Along with guaranteeing that none of those three will have any confidence in winning a playoff game here, it also assures staying in the 2/3 slot and avoiding L.A. till the WCF. In a dream scenario, someone else will have knocked them out or beat them up.

    The realist knows that we’ll likely win a 1st round series on experience, great play from TP and the will of Duncan but may be left with little in the tank afterward. Even now we’re playing with little sense of urgency and rotations that have no personality. This is not the rhythm or focus that breeds playoff success. My trust is Pop has a plan even if he doesn’t fully know what the end result will be. I think come playoff time we were going to see more Bowen and Hill even before we lost Manu. This now guarantees it. Perhaps a return to prioritizing defense and praying that the law of averages allows wide open 3pt shots to again be successful is what is most needed.

  • Caleb,

    I hate to treat anyone as sacrosanct, even Manu. Only Duncan has that status, to my mind. Last offseason would have been the time to trade Manu. But Pop would never trade him. Never. The question is, how much should the Spurs pay to extend him? Or, should they, gulp, let him walk after next season?

  • Caleb,

    I agree with you. Putting money aside for the moment, guys that are responsible for your winning championships & can still contribute at or near that level (even if you have to somewhat save them for the playoffs) deserve the loyalty. Too many memories and to much trust, for one. Number two, who else you gonna get? With a guy like Manu we’re talking about a professional who leads, competes at the highest level, is a great teammate and who responds under pressure. No drama, no off court headaches and he makes the guys around him better. Younger legs and more minutes help get you through the regular season but some guys help lead others to championships and some guys don’t. It’s why, in a lesser though not less important piece to the DNA puzzle, Bowen is still on the roster. When the games get tough you need guys you trust and who know the system more than guys who make great highlights but give up as much as they score (see: Stoudemire, Amare).

    This is not to say the roster can’t get younger or more athletic; doing so would shave some minutes from Manu and TD and help complete a more likely championship puzzle. It’s just to say that such a roster spot should come at the expense of someone else.

  • Am I still the only Spurs fan that doesn’t want us to resign Manu?

  • Why wouldn’t we want to resign Manu? I love Manu, I’m sure the Spurs organization loves him and hopefully he loves this team. If so, he’s not going to ask for an expensive, long term contract because he knows his body is becoming injury prone.

  • ahhh, the morning after. tough news for us spurs fans. man, hopefully the spurs can hold on to at least a 4 seed.

    manu is already missed as you can tell from the diehard comments.

    should we have traded him? debatable. but we didn’t, cause we know when manu is healthy, there aren’t that many better at his position.

    so what now? its time for roger mason jr to step up. he has a few games to get out of his funk and then come playoff time he needs to be our 08-09 version of sean elliot, jaren jackson, stephen jackson, steve kerr, the guy that knocks down timely 3pt daggers that either keeps us in the game , puts the game out of reach and/or closes out the game.

    its time for popp to get our guys to play some consistent defense.

    expectations aren’t high with manu out now. i hope whoever we meet in the playoffs will sleep on us, cause i know parker and duncan will step up. hopefully the rest of the team does too, especially you roger mason jr.

    go spurs go!

  • Caleb,

    First off, thanks for allowing me to be the friend you threw under the bus! ha. But seriously, i’m not pessimitic at all…if anything, i’m a realist. Reality says that Manu’s body will not hold up in a full 82 game season plus 20 or so playoff games again for a championship run. I’m not a basketball junkie who knows each players salaries, who’s a free agent, etc. But i know above all else, this is a business. If i’m an owner of the Spurs, I know that in order to maximize profit, we need to play in the most games possible. Odds are, the health of my players has quite a bit to do with how many playoff games we will see. Like I said in a follow-up text yesterday, Timmy is safe, he kept this franchise from picking up shop and relocating…he could run over a baby in his Land Rover and this city would still love him. But how many more turned ankles or stress fractures will we have to see before we start to turn on Manu…before we realize that another title run is over!? I’m a fan of Manu, he’s amazing, he has a huge heart and has a burning desire to win…i’m not denying that…I have let out my share of Charles Barkley “Ginobili’s” in my time…but the reality is that he’s a 31 year old in a 40 year old’s body…his body takes so much more abuse than the ‘average’ player, and that has added substantial years to his life.

    I’d also like to add that my burning passion as a Spurs fan has dwindled some in recent years…don’t get me wrong, I still love my Spurs…but after being at game 7 against the Pistons, how do you beat that as a fan?! Getting to see your team win in a game 7 is like climbing Everest…sure, there are other mountains to hike up, but none will compare with that one. I’m sure i’m in the minority on this one, but that’s alright with me.

  • Respectfully, I disagree with the post’s main premise that the Spurs can/should contend as soon as next year. I’m not saying I don’t want to win, just that THAT PREMISE ignores the fact that the SPuRS have dead weight.

    The Manu question can probably wait a year. Don’t resign Finley or Vaughn. Dont sign Rasho, or Juwan Howard, or Joe Smith and pretend youve improved. Go get Rasheed Wallace or Brandon Bass, or both. Try to trade your expiring 2010 contracts, yup Manu too, for an all-star so Duncan can be what he is now, a great 2nd option.

    I agree that people should not resurrect the Carter trade arguments because at the time, Duncan didn’t want to do it. End of story. But he will never be his MVP self again, so you now consider such talk. These arguments can wait, I should probably just mourn right now.

    As for the Lakers, “Crown their A**.”

  • I am, as everyone else posting here should be, vehemently opposed to trading Ginobili. Bringing up Carter’s name as a “replacement” is absurd. You guys want to try to replace a guy who plays every minute with heart and soul and leaves everything on the court for somebody who openly mailed it in to get traded to his current team? Give me a break. Let Manu take the summer off, sign him to a modest extension (maybe 2 more years after next at his current salary), and let him come back with a vengeance.

    And discussion of bringing in Rasheed Wallace doesn’t exactly start the youth movement that people have been clamoring for. I’ll pass on that one.

    I think anybody should be fair game in trade talks, aside from the big 3… Mason and Hill included. I like the idea of keeping Gooden around as well.

    As previously posted in the space (can’t remember if by Graydon or Tim), the Spurs seem to treat players as family as opposed to employees. I realize that in this economic climate the Spurs will probably have to be even more frugal than they usually are, but I hope the statement about family is true. Especially for players that meant so much to 3 of the 4 championships in SA.

  • TV,

    I see your point about the time to trade Manu being last offseason. But why would we have traded him? At the time, it was only one injury, albeit a prolonged one. I never thought I’d say this, but Steven A. Smith was absolutely right on First Take this morning. We love the fact that the NBA is globalized, but we cringe at the prospect of our foreign-born players representing their teams in the Olympics. Our American players are allowed, even commended, to take the risk, sometimes repeatedly, to compete internationally, but we’re fine with the risk because they usually return healthy. Manu didn’t. So do we pull the trigger immediately after his injury? We’re talking about Manu. This isn’t McGrady. This isn’t Grant Hill. It’s not like Manu’s entire career has been marked by injury. Just the past 1 1/2 seasons. That’s it! Before his ankle injury, he had already done too much for the team to lose his value overnight.

    I did throw Jeff (above) under the bus. (You’re still there, buddy. Sorry.) Who would we get and who would we have gotten for Ginobili? Who would have been able to contribute at his level for a proper price? I’ll take the business argument. What’s the most cost-effective decision? (SpurredOn gets my point.) Keeping one of the most popular guys on the team, who is well acquainted with the system, hoping that he recovers…or letting him go on a very expensive gamble? Maybe Ginobili is an expensive gamble, but he’s allowed us to return to the table time and time again. Even injured.

    Silver lining: At least now, when we do resign him — and we will — it will be for either less money than anticipated or with an insurance clause regarding injury. That way, if he does go through a full recovery, he’ll emerge a semi-bargain. Pipe dream, maybe. But also good business. There’s no reason to assume rebuilding or restocking for next season has to start without the Big 3 intact.

  • And yes, Jeff, watching Game 7 of ’05 would most certainly be like climbing Everest. I wish I could have met you at the top.

  • Rebuild please…That’s what I’m waiting for! Let’s center a team on Parker, allow Timmy to have a couple more good years before retirement, etc.

    On the topic of globalization and playing for national teams…I think the NBA is stuck in an difficult spot on this one. What happens if Kobe or LeBron get injured in the Olympics and never performs the same again!? We have an outcry and change the rules back to no more NBA players playing for team USA. What happens if this begins to happen in regards to other national teams that have players in the NBA? There’s a decent chance foreign players opt for more money in Europe, while still being allowed to play for their country in international competition. So, not sure how I feel about that one yet.

    Caleb, I don’t know who we should of traded Manu for, I don’t follow the NBA and their monetary contracts close enough to be able to give a completely educated answer to that one. Perhaps the Spurs weighted those options already and found that the best move was to not make one at all…I don’t know. My point is that Manu’s body just can’t take the abuse like he could a few years ago…he has a few more miles on him than his age lets on..and his physical style of play is not going to help that out any…he’s one more ankle tweek away from becoming Steve Kerr…outside jump shooter…and I think that ankle tweek is just a matter of time.

  • Wonderful, wonderful post. I 100% agree that the Spurs definitely want to look ahead to the future. I think the generic age blanket issue isn’t necessarily the problem, more the age of the role players like Fabricio Oberto, Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley, etc… While I have full confidence in Spurs scouts and all that, I’m not going to bank on another late 1st round steal like Tony Parker or end of draft highway robbery like Manu.

    I, like most others here, am greatly opposed to any trading of Manu, unless it nets the Spurs LeBron or Kobe or something, which, it won’t. That being said, I believe that most of the players on the Spurs do need to go. Finley, Vaughn, and Udoka all need to be left alone in free agency, Oberto and Bowen need to be jettisoned as expiring contracts, throw in Bonner and Thomas if the deal is right. That leaves a core of Parker, Duncan, Ginobili, Mason, Hill, Hairston, and Mahinmi.

    To be fully honest, I don’t anticipate a fully healthy season from Manu next season, but again, it’s only recently that he’s had injury, so this may not be a huge problem. From this season’s performance, I honestly don’t think the Spurs really “need” Manu healthy all 82 games, just however many games they play in the playoffs/Finals. Given a full off-season of rest, maybe it’ll be better this time around. Hopefully.

    Meanwhile, I’m not sure what you’re going to be able to get for the expiring contracts of Bowen, Oberto, Bonner, and Thomas, so I’ll leave that on the side for now. Not really sure which teams are looking to cut costs, so I can’t say for sure. Here, on the other hand are names that I think the Spurs should look long and hard at in terms of the free agency. I know, Spurs won’t be a huge player in the free agency, but I still think they can figure out another Roger Mason type deal.

    1.) Marvin Williams - Given that Hawks haven’t been able to reach a contract agreement to extend him, and might want to re-sign Mike Bibby, there might not be enough money in the pot for Williams, if the Spurs can land him, then that’d be great.

    2.) Josh Childress - Poor man’s Marvin Williams-lite. If you can convince him to come back from Greece then I seriously think that retaining him is the last thing on the Hawks’ mind, of course, it’s the Hawks’ front office I’m talking about here, so you can never be sure.

    3.) Marquis Daniels - Seriously, have you seen how he’s played given the injuries to Granger and Dunleavy? However, given that this is going to be Granger and Dunleavy’s team, there isn’t much of a future for him there, unrestricted free too.

    4.) Walter Herrmann - Andres Nocioni, 4x cheaper, 2x better. Can shoot the 3, can defend, and is Argentinian, that should count for everything. Also called Fabio. Seriously, I think that this guy would be a Roger Mason-esque steal if we can play him more.

    5.) Rasheed Wallace - Robert Horry + Dennis Rodman = duh

  • Marvin Williams or Josh Childress would be dreams, and would probably need to happen by way of trade. But, yeah, I’ve thought about those two as Spurs for a long time.

  • For those suggesting we should/should’ve traded Manu: How many times have you criticized a players’ lack of loyalty? It goes both ways. There are some players that you just don’t trade. There are so few players who are loyal to a team that when you have one you don’t throw them away.

    I want Manu to retire a Spur.

  • Jaceman, great post, thanks for the list. I remember Daniels being clueless when with the Mavs, but should pay closer attention to him. IMO, the Hawks will pay Williams before Bibby. It’s premature, but

    (1) Next year, I hope Pop relies on the Austin Toros development for more than a Rodeo Road Trip buddy.

    (2) I’m not adverse to the Spurs trading into this year’s draft as you are, Jaceman, because that’s where they’ve been most successful. You lose out on Batum by one pick and you score with Hill!!! That’s a team that knows its draft board, my friend. And the Spurs owners prefer those salaries.

  • This is a painful moment for me, and I honestly don’t want to revisit all the arguments going on at PTR, but I just wanted to commend you on a great post. The imagery was particularly fitting.

  • Jeff, I have to agree with your friend that there was no legitimate “trade Manu” option last year, nor is there one now, so I agree with dtw that “its not worth discussing.” And Krista is right that you “don’t trade players like Ginobili,” in the first place. He’s been THE DIFFERENCE between winning and losing for four years, and was the difference when we beat the Lakers in the regular season this year.

    Jeff you brought up a good question, though. Should we expect Manu for a full season next year? YES. I think that’s a realistic an expectation and whats expected from Tim Duncan. I say its a good question, though, because you can only have so many old dudes on the team-the other spots HAVE to be filled by youth. I wouldn’t let Finley, Udoka and JV stay on if they offered to play for free.

  • Would you keep a car that has a timing belt issue, and the engine is making some funny sounds, and you know the a/c is going to need some serious work this summer just because you had some great memories in that car? I don’t know who’s out there, what kind of ‘car’ you could trade it in for…but perhaps it’s time to start looking at the classified’s. That’s all i’m saying…

  • chillfan, I have to disagree with you about the Spurs being successful in the draft. The only 3 draft picks that have made any type of meaningful contribution under the Pop regime are Tim, Manu, and Tony. That’s 3 picks in 12 years and Tim was a can’t miss! Manu was one of the best prospects in Europe. Tony had played professionally for 3 years.The reason the Spurs are in the position they are in today is because of their inablility and/or unwillingness to draft and develop young players. Pops philosophy is to let them make their mistakes somewhere else. (Europe, NBDL). The problem is it’s not the NBA. At one time the FO was considered the best at “finding foreign talent”. I think they decided to get too cute with drafting foreigners and keeping them overseas to develop and now it’s costing us. This FO strength is finding veteran players that fit the Spurs system. I think you have to mix the two and they have fallen short in the draft.

  • I hate hearing all of the “trade Manu” noise going around, especially that coming from those that are in “I told you we should have traded him already” position. Injury is not justification for a previous opinion which I think most people will still say is flat out wrong.

    I liked how Caleb pointed out that Manu isn’t McGrady or Grant Hill, but I think even seeing what Grant Hill is doing now can still keep us confident about what Manu could do after regaining his health.

    I’m liking Jaceman’s prospecting, even Sheed. I think if Pop could keep him in check, he would definitely be a valuable pick-up for maybe 2 seasons and be a counterbalance for our possible “going young” roster shake up.

  • I really do hope i’m wrong. enjoy the summer and let’s see how it unfolds.

  • Jeff, to follow your analogy, it depends on the model. If it’s an old Lexus, you drive it until its used. In a bad market, people won’t trade up for a used Lexus. You’ve already started the payments anyway. You’re partly to blame for its issues, knowing the way you drive and the reason you bought the vehicle in the first place. And when all is said and done, a banged up Lexus will still crush a new Geo Prism. I should know; I drove a Geo for five years!

    I’ve always thought Ginobili is kind of like basketball’s Marion Barber. Everyone always knew the way he plays would impact his longevity. But we kept him anyway. We took the risk. I, for one, am glad we did.

    But I’m with you Jeff on the summer. This is going to be one to watch. Hopefully, we’ll see what the classifieds hold for our future either way, Ginobili or not.

  • Geo Metro…do they still make those? And i really thought you would have gone with an old diesel Volvo over the Lexus. Marian Barber…good comparison.

    This summer excites me…I think that Pop and RC will be forced to make some moves…which is very unlike them. They are usually the conservative types, but I think there will be a shift in that soon… I know they’re the reason we have 4 rings..they have my trust.

  • Jeff, your car trader analogy doesn’t exactly apply to players, but you shouldn’t shop a player when market value is the lowest. Let’s see if heals up before we start harvesting his organs.

    gospurs44, even if ignore the Parker and Ginobili picks (although that’s unfair, because they are genius picks), show me a team that’s picked better than this since 2001…

    http://statsheet.com/mcb/drafts/nba_team/San-Antonio-Spurs

  • when in rome…

  • Only Scola, Salmons and Barbosa are proven and they drafted Barbosa for PHX and Salmons for Phily. Both were traded on draft day. If you take them away that proves my point even more! Since Tony, how many have contributed to their success? zero. Think about this, in 8 years this franchise hasn’t had a draft pick play an important role on the team!

  • gospurs44 I guess we can agree to disagree,
    but in those years you did not mention George Hill, and the potential of Mahinmi and Marcus Williams. Just because the player never played for us doesn’t mean that the Spurs don’t pick ballers-I’m saying hold on to them.

    My point is, as a franchise, the Spurs success has come through the draft because they draft well.

    There are objective statistical measures of how the Spurs’ draft-the Spurs are always near the top.

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