Saturday, August 8th, 2009...9:22 am
Ludden’s Summer Overview
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Johnny Ludden continues to lead the Spurs coverage pack. His latest piece for Yahoo! is can’t miss, with plenty of helpful details about the motivations and factors that made this summer’s makeover possible. Read it here. What I learned:
- The Spurs’ were motivated by the challenge of overcoming the Lakers, not from a desire to avenge their first round defeat.
- Pop on the ability to compete while staying beneath the tax line: “But the way the talent has shifted in the league, it’s almost impossible to do that now.”
- Peter Holt saw a roster overhaul as an important step in making the team attractive to ticket buyers. This strikes me as a basic spend money to make money business call.
- The roster moves have led to a partial recovery at the box office.
- San Antonio abandoned their 2010 free agent aspirations for two reasons. First, the recession created unique opportunities for trades with teams hoping to unload big contracts. We knew that. But the second reason is telling. The Spurs’ ability to attract a significant free agent had diminished because of their descent into the middle of the playoff pack. Waiting was not a viable option.
- Peter Holt was influenced by Tim Duncan’s stated desire to win more championships.
- Tim Duncan is 15 lbs thinner after a summer that has included little more than weight training. Pop wants Duncan “to start the season out of shape.” Just like last season, Popovich plans to limit Duncan’s low post work until late in the season.
But those bullets don’t really do Ludden justice. Go read his column, minus my filter.
41 Comments
August 8th, 2009 at 10:10 am
Great insight from Johnny Ludden. Thanks for the link Tim.
Some very telling information of the impact the economy is having on NBA teams.
Keep buying merchandise and tickets Spurs fans. We have an owner who cares (take notes Sarver).
August 8th, 2009 at 10:52 am
Great article. I know SPURS fans should be used to this by now, but it never ceases to amaze me how a recent four time champion continues to slip under the radar. All the off season hype is still going to other teams. The dynamic that Holt and Pop have created for this new look SPURS will, in my opinion, really be something to behold this season. During Summer league, I saw flashes of David Robinson seeing Mahinmi continue to just beat other bigs to spots and down the court. I saw Georgie directing traffic with confidence and throwing it down at every opportunity. Blair… well… the dude’s just nasty. Hairston.. who knew the guy had a jump shot? These guys are just gonna get better playing with the big three. It’ll be a little bumpy out the gate as this promises to be Pops toughest coaching job as the SPURS’ head man. Just hang in there and be exited SPURS fans. We’re in for a real show!
August 8th, 2009 at 10:57 am
Love Johnny’s work, thanks for the link!
August 8th, 2009 at 11:46 am
Wow, so the Spurs tried for Vince Carter before Richard Jefferson… I’m not sure that we missed out on anything there
August 8th, 2009 at 12:32 pm
The article is a good read, however, like any Spurs article, it has the usual over the top slobbering towards the Lakers, and the overly cautious approach with the Spurs, mainly that they can now hope to compete with them. As if this Lakers team is unbeatable. No question it’ll be a tough task, but let’s not act like this Spurs roster isn’t clearly capable of getting it done.
When the Lakers acquired Gasol in Feburary ’08, no one said “well the Spurs are the defending champions and have been the model franchise in sports for a decade, so the Lakers have no chance”. Instead, they said this move makes them at least co-favorites, and by the time the playoffs rolled around it was clear they were the favorites. It’s typical though, when the Lakers are on top they’re unbeatable, and when the Spurs are on top they’re vulnerable. That’s always been the mindset of fans and media alike.
Duncan being down to 240 will help to lessen the stress and the pounding on his knees, and should improve his agility and mobility, but that being said, if he’s to primarily defend centers, it would be more helpful to weigh 255-260. The Spurs already lack a true space eating big man, with Blair now their only big checking it at over 250. This may hurt them against the O’Neal’s and the Howard’s, but overall I think it’ll be a good thing.
August 8th, 2009 at 1:17 pm
Rye, not to disagree with how most media types treat the Lakers and Spurs when they’re on top or defending champs, but… Ludden used to be the Spurs beat writer for the SA Express, so I don’t think he can be categorized with most national press. And in this particular article, I don’t necessarily disagree with Ludden. Until the new Spurs get on the court it’ll be difficult to know how good they’ll be. Of course, the same can be said of the Lakers and how good they’ll be once Artest, inevitably, starts acting up.
August 8th, 2009 at 1:53 pm
I realize that Ludden used to cover the Spurs for the Express-news, but I didn’t differentiate between national and local media, I specifically used the general term “media”, meaning local/former local writers do it as well.
I don’t disagree about “having to prove it with this group” but it’d be nice if everyone stopped pretending like the Lakers core is more decorated, tested, and proven than the Spurs core, because it’s just not true.
The Lakers deserve the title of favorites, but would any true basketball fan be surprised if the Spurs defeated them in the WCF next season? All I’m saying is the difference isn’t nearly as much as many would have you believe, and short term I actually think the Spurs have a slightly higher upside.
August 8th, 2009 at 6:58 pm
Rye, I think it is both Popovich’s and the Spur’s nature to be humble and give the Lakers (or other teams credit). Most of the comments in his article talking about the Lakers being the favorites were mentioned by someone from the Spurs. And, going back to ’08, I guess the Lakers should ahve been the favorites considering they’ve come out of the west the last 2 years.
All that said, I think the Spurs had the best offseason of any team in the league by far and, given they are healthy, should be at least co-favorites with the lakers. I am excited as much as anyone about the upcoming season.
August 8th, 2009 at 7:06 pm
Great article by Ludden, thanks for the link Tim…
this offseason is really slow… can’t wait to see the new look Spurs take the floor. On paper, this roster could be the most loaded team during the Duncan era… if all the players are healthy and thier roles snug into place. We could be celebrating a championship by June… its too early to tell but with the Spurs’ system and with Coach Pop manning the sidelines i don’t think we should expect any less… Go! Spurs Go!
August 9th, 2009 at 9:37 am
Thanks Tim for the link. You guys do a great job feeding us fans the inside scoop about the team. I cant wait for the season to start. This is the first time that I am more excited about the basketball season than football. I am huge Cowboy fan so I look forward to every season. I have a feeling this will be a fun season to watch. I really want to see Blair in the starting five early in the season. Do you think he will get some minuets with the starting five? Thanks again.
August 9th, 2009 at 10:00 am
It looks like the Spurs may be going a bit leaner in order to score quicker. It may be the best option in order to beat the Lakers is to focus on outscoring the Lakers and using defensive strengths when necessary. Of course this is all speculation.
Great article posted.
August 9th, 2009 at 11:27 am
I think we have a great team assembled to challenge, and hopefully beat the Lakers. They do the deserve the credit because they have come out of the West for two straight years, but the spotlight, more often than not, has been on what is going down in Hollywood, so Rye I’ll bac you up on that one.
But the thing is, as long as I can remember, the Spurs have never really been able to stop Kobe Bryant. So solution to beating the Lakers, assemble the right pieces to guard everyone else on their team(which I believe we have) and let Kobe get his 30, 40, or even 81 if he wants. The guys like Odom, Gasol, Fisher, Farmar have been the ones who have gotten us with their role play
August 9th, 2009 at 1:49 pm
What team has ever really been able to “stop” any all-time great? It doesn’t happen, that’s part of the reason they are who they are. Has any specific team consistently stifled Duncan throughout his career? No, at some point or another, he’s dominated them all, notably the Lakers.
I’ve already agreed with the point about them being the favorites, they’ve earned that title, but this whole notion of them being so far superior that you can only hope to have a chance is ludicrous, and we as Spurs fans should know that more than anyone. The Spurs have had a lot of really good and some great teams over the years, but did we, or the media, EVER act like no one had a chance against them? No.
BayAreaSpursFan, there’s virtually no chance of Blair cracking the starting five, barring probably two injuries. Duncan and McDyess are the projected starters, and in the event one did not play, Bonner would probably fill in. Blair projects as the 3rd or 4th big man in the rotation and should see 15-20 mpg.
August 9th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
My main point about “stopping” Kobe Bryant is that if his teammates are stifled, the same goes for the Lakers as a whole, even if Bryant drops 30 a night, which is what you expect him to do.
On paper, it looks like the Spurs could beat the Lakers in a seven game series. But it’s hard to say for sure until we actually see what happens on the court.
But for the record, the Lakers are not some collossal giant that no one can beat. They, like we have been in this decade, are just on top, and we, just like they have done, are the ones who try to measure up and take them off their throne this season.
And the Spurs have always been unappreciated, I’d rather win and be unappreciated, then get the attention that say LeBron gets, without having a title at all
August 9th, 2009 at 2:40 pm
Sorry, I meant “underappreciated”
August 9th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
Back to Duncan being down to 240 lbs. Everyone is talking about the Spurs potential inability to deal with big, athletic, quick footed wings, but how about mammoth, space eating centers? I know there’s not many, but look at the other contenders. They’re all bigger and thicker than the Spurs in the middle. Regular season it may not be much of an issue, but in the latter rounds of the playoffs, should the Spurs make it that far, it probably will be.
Individually, I’m not sure how good the Spurs will be defensively, but team-wise I expect that by the Rodeo trip/post-All-Star break the defense will be an improvement from a year ago.
What a change this season could be, in more ways than people are talking about. How’s this for one: the Spurs may actually have to outscore opposing contenders in order to beat them, rather than trying to slow it down, grind it out, and edge them, they may have to be the one’s who push the pace and try to turn it into, if not a track meet, then at least a triple digits game.
August 9th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
The lakers are more talented than any other team in basketball, at least on paper. The trouble with the lakers is that the only players on the team with the killer instinct are Kobe and Fisher. Fisher is now too old to play, so it all resides on Kobe’s shoulders.
This is a problem. He is the heart and soul of that team. When they pick up Kobe’s mentality, the lakers are unstoppable. But sometimes Kobe doesn’t bring it, and no one else really steps up to be the psychological leader. In these cases, the team turns into a soft punching bag.
But the reality is that listening to any analysis is a great waste of time. Even if they have no biases and are telling the complete truth to the best of their knowledge (both highly unlikely), it is the opinion of just 1 person. The best place to get real and correct forecasts is the market place. If you want to know how the economy will do 6-9 months into the future, the place with near 100% accuracy is the stock markets / futures markets. I am in the business and don’t ever remember when they were wrong —this recent economic collapse came in August 2008, and yet the stock market was down by 25% already by that time. The stock market decline began in Oct. of 2007. If you want to predict who will win the presidency, follow the futures betting -it always does better than any polls. And if you want correct analysis on who will win the NBA championship next year, follow the NBA futures betting and or las vegas odds. It is obviously not a sure thing, but it is better than any analysis. It is unbiased and determined via the market place.
This is from a betting site. Lakers and Cavs are now tied at about 2.25/1 while the spurs are at 11/1.
Odds to win 2010 NBA Championship:
Cleveland Cavaliers (9/4)
Los Angeles Lakers (9/4)
Boston Celtics (5/1)
Orlando Magic (6/1)
San Antonio Spurs (11/1)
Denver Nuggets (13/1)
Houston Rockets (15/1)
Portland Trail Blazers (18/1)
Utah Jazz (20/1)
Dallas Mavericks (40/1)
New Orleans Hornets (40/1)
Detroit Pistons (45/1)
Atlanta Hawks (50/1)
Chicago Bulls (50/1)
Miami Heat (50/1)
Phoenix Suns (50/1)
Philadelphia 76ers (60/1)
New Jersey Nets (75/1)
New York Knicks (75/1)
Washington Wizards (75/1)
Charlotte Bobcats (100/1)
Golden State Warriors (100/1)
Indiana Pacers (100/1)
Los Angeles Clippers (100/1)
Oklahoma City Thunder (100/1)
Sacramento Kings (100/1)
Toronto Raptors (100/1)
Milwaukee Bucks (125/1)
Minnesota Timberwolves (125/1)
Memphis Grizzlies (150/1
August 9th, 2009 at 7:02 pm
PS: don’t ask me why the rockets are rated so highly, as these odds are with the Yao information included. My only guess is that the Rockets played excellent ball without Yao. Against the lakers in last year’s playoffs, I thought they played better without Yao than they did with Yao.
Games 1-3 were with Yao. 2-1 for lakers
Games 4-7 without Yao. 2-2 tie
August 9th, 2009 at 7:59 pm
Rye,
Tim Duncan is 15 lbs thinner after a summer that has included little more than weight training. Pop wants Duncan “to start the season out of shape.” Just like last season, Popovich plans to limit Duncan’s low post work until late in the season.
Duncan being down to 240lbs at the start of the season is all part of the plan, i suspect he will be around 250-260lbs come playoff time… having him “light” at the start will help reduce the wear and tear on his knees.
I also don’t consider us having a “thin frontline” we have TD, Dice, Blair, Mahinmi, Bonner and Ratliff… (we maybe undersized though TD and Mahinmi being our tallest Bigs).
having said that, i do still believe the Spurs will rely on their DEFENSE rather than trying to outscore opponents specialy during the playoffs… We still have good if not great defensive bigs in TD, Dice and Ratliff… we can also wonder how things develop for both Mahinmi (a quick footed big who is great at altering/blocking shots during summer league play) and of course Blair (the space eater).
On paper, i think the Spurs match up well with anyone in the league and could really compete for the championship this upcoming season if everyone stays healthy…
August 9th, 2009 at 8:01 pm
and oh, i forgot Haislip he can be a rotation Big for us…
August 9th, 2009 at 8:19 pm
I was under the impression that those odds are partly determined by the share of betting a team attracts. Thus, if a great many bets were placed on the Lakers at this point, their odds would decrease correspondingly. I think that at this point, before the season begins, the sportsbooks probably rely on past performance as the number one indicator. Until you get to Houston, those teams are listed exactly in the order of their regular season records.
I don’t think there’s any way to make meaningful predictions (from the sportsbooks or otherwise) about the championship until we see these teams play. This is especially true for the Spurs, whose roster (at least among the upper tiers) has changed the most dramatically in the offseason.
I think Light Tim Duncan bodes well. He has a battle-tested big, physical counterpart in the frontcourt for the first time since David Robinson, and Pop’s going to take advantage of that. We can all agree that the lighter the load Tim carries defensively (figuratively and literally), the more he’ll have left in the tank for the playoffs. This is just the earliest decision with that goal in mind.
August 9th, 2009 at 10:33 pm
“I don’t think there’s any way to make meaningful predictions (from the sportsbooks or otherwise) about the championship until we see these teams play. This is especially true for the Spurs, whose roster (at least among the upper tiers) has changed the most dramatically in the offseason.”
I totally agree with you on this BB…
August 10th, 2009 at 1:33 pm
Robby,
These guys run mile(s) practically every day (or, at least every other day) on a basketball court throughout the season, yet you’re suggesting that Duncan will GAIN 15-20 pounds throughout the season? Most players, I would think, either stay around the same weight, or if anything lose weight throughout the season.
By thin, I don’t mean in numbers. Right now, there’s seven bigs under contract, which is probably more than any other team. In terms of weight though (Duncan: 240, McDyess: 245, Bonner: 240, Blair: 265, Mahinmi: 250, Ratliff: 235, Haislip: 230). Unless Mahinmi becomes a staple of the rotation, this will be an undersized, relatively thin front line.
I suspect the plan will be to, as always, win with defense. I’m just not sure how realistic that is when you consider how the Spurs match up, at least on paper, with the other four contenders.
August 10th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Rye,
You obviously don’t know about weight gain regimen/training…. i believe it can be done with Timmy D. as the season progresses… And this is what i think the Spurs will be doing.. “let TD gain weight as the season goes in preparation for the playoffs.” that is why they say Pop wants Duncan “to start the season out of shape.” (that is to ease his knees some burden early on). This is my opinion, i could be wrong although there is a good chance of the Spurs doing this. We’ll have to wait and see…
August 10th, 2009 at 5:11 pm
Robby,
I’ve watched the NBA for well over a decade and do not recall a single rotation player, mainly someone who plays about 33-34 mpg, noticeably putting on weight throughout the season. So you can sit there and play mr. expert all you want, the reality is this rarely, if ever, happens.
Case in point, Finley slimmed down from about 235-240 to about 220 last season. He looked svelte coming into training camp, and looked the same at the end of the season. There was no change.
August 10th, 2009 at 5:54 pm
I’m assuming that LBJ, Bynum, Dwight Howard, Shaq and Kendrick Perkins are the guys you’re worried about. It’s very difficult to find a good center with that kind of size (270+ lbs.) in the league; there just aren’t many available and even mediocre guys like DeSagana Diop cost big money. An extra fifteen pounds would certainly help Tim Duncan match up against those guys, but he definitely can’t play that kind of basketball all year long - we know this from last season. It’s a choice that’s going to have some drawbacks. But I want to stress that we have no idea how Pop plans on using those 7 bigs defensively. He’s a wily old man. The article also mentioned that TD’s been strengthening his legs, presumably to compensate for the weight loss, and his weak knees.
It’s an interesting approach, and I hope it works for the team, and extends Duncan’s career. But we’ll have to wait and see what happens.
August 10th, 2009 at 6:27 pm
Rye,
i’m no Mr. Expert as i said it might wrong about this and BB said it right :
“But I want to stress that we have no idea how Pop plans on using those 7 bigs defensively. He’s a wily old man. The article also mentioned that TD’s been strengthening his legs, presumably to compensate for the weight loss, and his weak knees.”
We are all speculating here, but still you can’t deny the reality that athletes (basketball players) can have a weight gain regimen… its a matter of more calorie and protein in take in fact most athletes can successfully gain ½ to 1 pounds of muscle weight per week if they eat enough food to meet their additional calorie and protein needs for
weight gain or and train properly.
But then again we have to wait and see if this is the Spurs’ approach…
August 10th, 2009 at 7:42 pm
I am really not very worried about Duncan on the defensive end of the court. He knows the game of basketball as much or better than anyone in the league. My concerns are with his post abilities on the offensive end. It may not have been such a big concern earlier in his career, but the way the league lets people abuse him I believe puts more wear on him than on the defensive end; especially when his jump shot isn’t falling, he needs those “easy baskets” in the paint to get in the zone. But then again with manu back and RJ on the squad, we might not need those baskets from TD so much. What do yall think?
August 10th, 2009 at 7:59 pm
I think TD will benefit with Manu and Tony penetrations (like in the past)… i also believe RJ’s ability to attack the rim will help TD on offense. The most important addition that i see would really help out TD is McDyess because of his midrange jump shots and good passing ability for a big man… can’t really wait ’till the season starts and see how our new look Spurs get it done…
August 10th, 2009 at 8:06 pm
Opponents are going to have to give someone big numbers this year, because they can no longer collapse their defense on Timmy like last season while you have Tony, RJ, McDyess, and Mason, and Manu sitting outside. Wow I cannot wait. I need my fix!
August 10th, 2009 at 8:15 pm
BB
You wrote:
“I was under the impression that those odds are partly determined by the share of betting a team attracts. Thus, if a great many bets were placed on the Lakers at this point, their odds would decrease correspondingly”
That’s my point exactly. These odds are decided by the marketplace. It is not an individual or a small group of people deciding what the odds are. The more people bet on the lakers, the more their odds RISE, thus making the payout less. Thus these odds are decided by the collective will of the market place —everyone with an opinion, and the money and confidence to back up said opinion, has an affect on the odds.
There is a saying in the speculative trading community -the market is always right. It is the number 1 rule for trading the investment markets. Fight the market and they’ll take you out in a body bag.
August 10th, 2009 at 8:38 pm
Good point TheRed&Black, if things pan out for the Spurs, that might happen often this upcoming season…
August 10th, 2009 at 9:37 pm
I see your point, Kaveh, but I still don’t think there’s any value in those odds other than to predict very roughly the rankings at the end of the regular season. If bettors have a say, keep in mind that LA’s market is bigger than any other competitive team’s, and closer to Las Vegas.
At the beginning of last season, the Magic were 25/1 odds to win, behind the Cavs, Bulls, Celtics and Pistons in the east.
The market is frequently wrong, or we wouldn’t ever witness the collapse of entire segments of the economy. I’m gonna keep saying it - we won’t know anything about this season until we start playing. My best guess favor the Lakers coming out of the west, strictly because they won last year, and kept that team intact. But there are 82 games and four rounds of playoffs between now and then, and that means it can only be a guess. You should bet on the Lakers before their odds get any lower. (rising odds = greater payout, fwiw)
August 11th, 2009 at 7:05 am
“The market is frequently wrong, or we wouldn’t ever witness the collapse of entire segments of the economy.” Excellent point, BB. You may be able to somewhat accurately predict next season IF all all the teams stood pat and barring injuries, but that is obviously not the case and won’t be the case.
Take two teams like the Spurs and Magic. They had so many additions and subtractions on their respective teams that it’s impossible to really know how much better they really became. We all generally agree that they got better, but the question is how much better?
The only way to know the real answer is to roll the ball out on the court and let the teams go toe-to-toe. The answer to all of our questions will become much more clear as the season progresses.
August 11th, 2009 at 8:18 am
David Robinson played at 235. I don’t recall that being an issue against bigger opponents. If playing at a lower weight helps Tim’s knees and lengthens his career than it is better for the Spurs. I’d rather have Tim on the court all season and get pushed around a handful of times than have him miss 30+ games and have opponents go around him easily if he is less mobile.
August 11th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
Robby,
I’m not suggesting athletes can’t gain weight in the off season, but in season, for a guy who plays 33-34 mpg, I don’t ever recall seeing a player in that situation putting on noticeable weight or bulk in season.
krista,
Robinson started his career at 235, but later played at 250. He was also 2 inches taller than Duncan, at 7’1”, and more athletic. I’m not saying it’s all bad, in fact I agree it’s mostly good (Duncan’s losing 15 pounds), but for this team to win a championship it could be another impediment if/when they get into series against the other contenders.
August 11th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
Great discussion.
Life has a way of dictating it’s own path. Looks like Gasol has something to divert his attention to http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/9921468/Lakers%27-Gasol-out-at-least-3-weeks-after-surgery
August 11th, 2009 at 4:16 pm
It occurs to me that with the ‘eye for talent’ that both RC and Pop have that the signing of Marcus and Ian Mahinmi is no accident. Marcus Haislip is more of a lighter, more athletic Hedo with his ability of shooting from any where on the floor, and the Ian Mahinmi addition, he just might be the NBA’s best kept secret in that he is very fast for a big man, and very athletic like D Rob (David Robinson). One can only hope that Ian is taking summer league tutorials from the Admiral the way that Bynum is apparently under the tutelage of Kareem. Could we bee witnessing the development of D Rob 2.0 in Mahinmi?
One can only hope.
We have SUCH a deadly line up as a starting 5 and impressive but also unproven bench in some players. I’m just stoked as I can maintain to see Timmy, Tony, Manu, RJ, and McDyess come on to the floor after a time out (hopefully called by the other team) for the final 3-4 minutes of important games building chemistry, and learning together how to close out games in preparation for closing out the last few games of the WCF and the ’10 NBA Finals. Who is REALLY going to stop that line up? Lebron can only guard one guy, and Shag
(misspelled on purpose) can only guard so much of the paint, Kobe will be forced to guard either Manu or RJ and won’t be able to provide much of any help defense, Pau’s Defense is as (in)effective as Dirk’s, and Byn(othing) is a no-show when it matters, and Ron Artest? Well when he has his temper tantrums, -and he will- will fade away like he did with the Rockets when it mattered. I’m not saying that the Spurs will sweep the Fakers and the Cavs if and when we meet them in the playoffs, but not only will SA be at full strength this season, but every team will need to respect everyone on the floor when the Spurs show up for the last 3-4 minutes in every 4th quarter they play against us.
August 11th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
Rye,
Got your point, i’m just speculating that “it might happen” i think it depends on how TD plays/comforl level on his current weight (240 lbs) as the season starts… if they (the Spurs) think he needs more weight later on they might ask him to gain 10-15lbs.
Regarding Finley, he really trimmed down last season, players to it for a reason Kobe also trimmed down during his MVP season probably to have more speed and agility. I’d say Gaining/losing weight is done base on a specific need.
As in Duncan’s case, the main reason that he was ask to trim down to 240lbs is to ease the pressure off he’s knees, He is also currently strengthening his legs for the same reason.
He might be asked to gain some weight as the season progresses IF the Spurs sees it that way otherwise he stays the same.
August 11th, 2009 at 6:17 pm
*comfort level i mean….
August 13th, 2009 at 9:07 am
[...] Johnny Ludden’s piece on the Spurs off-season moves for Yahoo!. (Massive hat tip: The great 48 Minutes of Hell). It’s just solid reporting, aided in part by the trust Ludden gained with people in the [...]
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