Memphis Grizzlies 97, San Antonio Spurs 104

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For the first time this season, the Spurs look like a team that can consistently beat quality opponents. Last night’s advanced box score tells the story in numbers, but the game also gave rise to a few developing trends. I’d like to use this recap to highlight this game’s place in that context.

George Hill. Gregg Popovich inserted Hill into the lineup six games back, and, on an individual level, the results are impressive. As a starter Hill is averaging 15.9 points while shooting 46.9% from the field. He’s aggressive on offense and defense, gets to the rim and does his best to pester his man. Most importantly, Hill’s play making abilities have improved throughout the season. Earlier this year, he did a poor job of including others in the action, which is not such a great thing for a point guard. But, as I said, he’s improved on that front. The only disadvantage to increasing Hill’s minutes is that the Spurs-whether featuring Hill-Parker, Hill-Ginobili, or Ginobili-Parker-are typically outsized by opposing backcourts. Smart coaches, Phil Jackson-smart coaches, will look to exploit their size advantage in a playoff series.

The decline of small-ball. With the gradual return of Matt Bonner and the inclusion of Antonio McDyess into the starting lineup, the Spurs are not featuring as much small-ball. This is a two game sample, and other factors come into play, but their interior defense looks better because of it. And the spacing that Bonner and McDyess provide is helping to open things up for their guards. San Antonio’s smalls play better when the team goes big.

I’m not a small-ball basher. It has its place. But the Spurs are a better team when their personnel allows them to serve small-ball up as a side dish, not an entree. At heart San Antonio is a defensive team. And there are two shot-bothering bigs at the heart of their defense.

Starting Antonio McDyess also provides the benefit of bringing DeJuan Blair off the bench. In my estimation, Blair’s hustle and energy serve the Spurs better in that capacity.

By quarter scoring. Unfortunately, there is at least one discouraging trend. San Antonio has consistently played better basketball in the first half of the game, jumping out to a big lead before seeing it diminish through the final two quarters. This was the case last night, and it has played out this way since opening night.

 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Spurs 25.8 26.3 23.9 24.5
Opponent 23.4 24.9 23.9 23.4
Times Leading 28 27 24 -
Times Trailing 11 14 18 -
Draw 4 2 1 -

*Numbers courtesy of hoopstats.com

This final talking point, the fact that the Spurs are a better during the game’s opening quarters, is difficult to assess. My gut tells me it’s a combination of two factors. The first is that the new guys aren’t executing as well down the stretch because the Spurs’ reduced playbook doesn’t allow Gregg Popovich the range of halftime adjustments he’s enjoyed in the past. The other gut-level guess is obvious: the Spurs’ best three players are either old or injured. LJ Ellis of SpursTalk takes up this discussion in his recap.

Without Tony Parker, the Spurs put their offense in Tim Duncan’s hands — and with good results. Duncan facilitated the offense well, made smart decisions and kept everyone involved. When he looked for his own shot, he was decent but he did take a lot of awkward shot attempts. In his last five games, he’s shooting just 35.8% (28-for-81) from the field. Defensively, he was a step slow sometimes when it came do help defense — though his individual post defense was very solid. All in all, Duncan played a heady game but didn’t look 100% physically. Why? Not sure but hopefully it is just fatigue.

Manu Ginobili continues to have very similar outings. While he’s struggling converting his field goal attempts, he’s making fantastic passes and he’s playing with a lot of energy. Another common thread is the fact that Ginobili is fading down the stretch of games. He was 0-for-3 against Memphis in the fourth quarter. On the season, Ginobili is shooting just 35.3% from the field in fourth quarters, including 23.1% from beyond the arc.

For these reasons, and several others aside, I’m increasingly convinced that the Spurs are an impact player away from a championship. They need to land more punches over the back 24, and some of this is helped by not whiffing on as many swings. But adding another slugger would help.

  • drowningindallas

    Who would be on your short list of “sluggers” the Spurs could add?

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    @drowingindallas: Honestly, they should have their options. It’s a good trade market for them. And it doesn’t have to be Stoudemire/Iguodala big to work. The Spurs could aim smaller and still get big results.

  • Tyler

    I got excited the other day when the trade talk shifted from Stoudemire to Tyrus Thomas. I’ve felt since last year that the piece they were missing was an athletic 4 who can block shots and rebound. A player like Thomas would be a good matchup against Marion/Nowitzki/Odom/Nene/Martin et al. As LJ Ellis pointed out, Duncan is still a good on the ball defender, but not as good on the helpside and I think Thomas would help here too. Finally, I feel like we’ve all gotten comfortable with Duncan’s knee problems but I still worry that he’s playing too many minutes and that, like last year, he’ll have a late season flare up. Another quality big who could legitimately guard centers would take some of the pressure off of Pop to ride Duncan. Basically I think Thomas or a similar player could be a sort of Nazr Mohammed lynchpin to a title run.

  • lvmainman

    The Spurs have no deterrents at the rim. Especially since Theo Ratliff doesn’t play. Also, McDyess is still slow at help and can’t block a shot like Ratliff can.

    I still hate the Bonner and Blair on the floor at the same time. Choose one and let Ratliff play. These 2 were fortunate to get defensive rebounds last night. Because of both their determination and grittiness and the refs letting them play without calling fouls for once, they were successful. I don’t think that will always be the case.

    The Spurs should try to trade for Bosh. Use the Rockets(McGrady), Jazz(Boozer), Wizards(Jamison), Suns(Stoudamire), etc. as a 3rd team to help facilitate the trade.

    Still mad the Spurs missed on Stephen Jackson. He scored another 30 last night. Having him in place of Bogans/Finley would’ve been huge.

  • http://espn.com jacob

    @Tim

    I know I may get flamed for saying this but after watching the team play without Tony several times this year, I think Jefferson would do better coming off the bench. Upon Tony’s return, I would consider having RJ come off the bench to get a lot of quality minutes alongside Manu and Hill. Tony doesn’t involve RJ as much as he needs in order to get going momentum wise(although he does do a decent job), and I also see RJ’s natural strengths come into more of the forefront when Tony is gone, thus not taking away from his game. Hill and Manu together create a faster more aggressive pace that RJ has thrived upon. This would of course mean that Pop would need to start Bogans at the three and Mason at the two(which mase should be fine with since he’s done it before and produced well). I think that with Mason’s spacing and Bogan’s ‘defense first’ role would compliment Tony’s aggressiveness better and would allow McDyess and Tim to do their thing too. Bonner, Finley and Mahinmi could then be dealt for that impact player mentioned in your article.

    Parker - Hill
    Mason - Manu
    Bogans - Jefferson - Hairston
    Duncan - Blair
    McDyess - ??? - Ratliff

    BTW, I cant get enough of your (collectively) stuff!
    awesome write-ups!

  • Tristan Wilkins

    I think we are fine. Yes we have alot of problems in a bunch of areas, but that’s what happens when you bring in almost a new entire roster. People are bashing the spurs left and right and i am sick of it. What we need is better transition and execution down the stretch. I have had my doubts, but they are just feelings of why arent we better than the Lakers of hell even the Mavs. We are just getting warmed up i think. Now about Mr. Theo. Play the man more, but consider this, we savin the bigs for playoff time, and we all know we gonna make it to the palyoffs. WE ARE!!! We have put up a decent record with a whole new team. Next year we gonna be the team, watch. It takin awhile to get these guys used to each other and finding each other. So all in all we gonna be fine. Don’t add a piece we can’t transdcend to our playbook, our mentality. We mess up what we really don’t have goin. GO SPURS!!!

  • sj_papi

    @jacob,
    i couldn’t agree with you more about RJ. The Hill-Manu-RJ combination plays more of a street style of ball with these guys making an effort to get up and down the court. It not only opens up RJ’s offensive repetoire, but really shows his skill as a playmaker. The dude has got game. I just don’t think TP is used to playing with that kind of athletecism. There have been opportunties all year that TP has missed for catching RJ for easy alley-oop attempts. Of course, i’m sure POP has him brainwashed at this point. Still, with a healthy squad and adding Blair to the mix, that second unit could really do some damage.

  • ribanez

    The Spurs have 2 consecutive wins against quality opponents. However, they need help defensively. I thought Mahinmi with his athleticism would have provided the additional interior defense that is needed. Maybe Tyrus Thomas gives them the answer but at what price ?

  • Daniel

    Igoudala/Dalembert basically guarantees the Spurs the championship, and Iggy replaces Ginobili after this season (though I hope we can get Manu for 3 yrs/$20M or something of the like)… Not sure why Philly is so interested in trading a top-10 wing player, but he’s a much better fit than Jefferson for the Spurs. Dalembert’s shot blocking is awesome and he’s been one of the top rebounders in the league for a couple years now. He just needs a fresh start.

    Trade could be done Finley/Jefferson/Mason/McDyess for Igoudala/Dalembert.

  • Sauce

    nice to see george hill holding his own and showing his athleticism. RMJ has been the forgotten spur it seems and I think RMJ may be more important for us than jefferson is (on the offensive end of course).

    but parker, hill and ginobli solidified in the backcourt, it seems pop has to either go with defense and a little offense in bogans or a gunner in RMJ.
    this is why i highly doubt hairston playing any significant games for the year.

    i would like to note, has anyone taken a look at ginobli’s shooting percentages? i believe he is shooting the ball below 40%.

  • http://mysa.com josh

    You spurs fans need to stop jumping off and on the bandwagon.you guys read an article about the spurs and their struggles and ya bash the spurs and how they are garbage and blah blah blah.than you see a decent game played by the spurs and you guys feel better!get it together.

  • Michael

    Daniel,
    I’ve been, and am crazy for Iguodala as a Spur in terms of both O and D but I warn you about Dalembert. His #s can be impressive but consider this:
    rebounds-offensive: Philly misses so many shots that he gets more chances for the boards and therefore has his #s inflated a little.
    blocks-he tries to block every shot. He may block 4 on a good night but he’ll swat and miss at 10. That’s 6 shots he leaves the rim wide open and the other team gets easy layups from a put back when the guy misses.
    However, I do agree that he needs a change of scenery and I hope it happens and he proves me wrong because he gets paid so much, but
    he is subject to J.R. Smith level mental lapses. That will never work in the Spurs system. So unfortunately I gotta say, please let Dalembert go in your mind. Other than that, even though it’ll probably never happen I’ll do an Iggy/Manu swap. There’s a future with Iggy.

  • Cory Clay

    Wow, has anyone read these two articles on CNNSI.com about the possiblities with the new CBA?

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/frank_hughes/01/29/labor.strife/index.html?eref=sihp

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/ian_thomsen/01/29/countdown.trade.deadline/index.html

    After reading these articles and knowing what a large role Peter Holt plays in these negotiations it all starts making sense why the Spurs were so anxious to take on Jefferson’s deal that expires at the same time as the current CBA and not take part in the Free Agent bonanza this offseason. After reading these stories I don’t expect the Spurs to take on ANY long term salary for any amount past the $4-$5 million mark.

    Previously I had expected Manu to get offered a $7 million/3 year contract and now I don’t even know if that’s in the cards, Manu might know this too which would explain why he has seemed so short tempered on the court recently with teammates.

  • Cory Clay

    Why is my comment awaiting moderation?

  • http://espn.com jacob

    4 of our regular rotation players for 2 of theirs isn’t a wise trade idea this late in the season… injuries could decimate the team when the number of available players are so limited.

    If the Spurs stick to their guns, they can land a quality player without having to touch Manu, Hill, Jefferson, Mcdyess, or RMJ at all.

    Bonner, Finley & Mahinmi are all movable pieces that dont hurt the depth of our rotation too much, and they all have expiring contracts to offer another franchise. This is the ticket, and I say the Spurs should try and land another inside defensive presence like Tyrus, but I’d like to see more opinions.

  • John

    Honestly I feel that people are focusing a little too much on the idea of bringing in another scorer when it’s really our defense that’s lacking. Bruce Bowen is really the kind of guy where you don’t realize how vital he was to our team until he’s gone. It’s nice that Jefferson gives us a strong 4th option, but what we really always needed from that position was a lock-down defender who could hit 3s from the corner to keep the defense honest while our big 3 attacked the rim.

    The Spurs in the past have ALWAYS gone through 5-6 minute stretches in games where they struggle offensively. The difference is, in the past our defense has been strong enough to hold the other team back while we went through our cool streaks, while this year we haven’t been able to rely on that consistently.

    If the Spurs felt he was healthy, I think Tayshaun Prince would be the ideal player for us, and his contract expires after next year. The question is whether or not we believe he’s healthy or not. Unfortunately, there just aren’t a ton of those kind of Bowen/Prince/Battier kinds of players in the league who also have enough offensive game to keep them from being a complete liability on the other side of the ball.

  • Dr. Love

    All this optimism makes me skeptical. The only thing last night’s game showed is that we can beat the Grizzlies when Rudy Gay is ice cold and Roger Mason shoots 80% in the fourth quarter.

    Once those two guys regress to their individual means, the Grizzlies win the ball game.

  • http://espn.com jacob

    We could trade for Camby, and that would really help!

  • Cory Clay

    My thoughts on some of the recent lineup changes:

    Timmy- Nothing needs to be said.

    Parker- We told you not to play for France!

    Mcdyess, -welcome to the 09-10 NBA season, glad you can join us!

    Manu-Blair,- if I was Vince McMahon this combo would be my new tag team champion.
    That is until the Manu heel turn, trust me it’s coming, have you seen Manu go off on Hill and Bonner in back to back games, yikes!

    Bogans- has been good in spurts, will give a hard clean foul when needed, but is almost too respected by his opponents. What pushed Bowen to that next level was the fact that whoever he was guarding not only had to be worried about being defended but also about being stepped on, undercut, and poked in the eye. I love Bruce Bowen but I’m sorry it’s true.

    George Hill-should and hopefully will be starting the rest of the season.

    RMJ-Instant offense off the bench, looks like he’s settling into his role.

    Jefferson-Finally is starting to look like a guy I would want to play with if I was playing a pick up game, not as many eye rolls or whiny facial expressions when he doesn’t get a pass, etc.

    The Spurs- could their be hope for this season yet??? I think so!

  • SpurredOn

    Didn’t the habit of earning big early leads only to lose them in the 3rd quarter start in last season’s playoffs? I recall being up big in the 1st halves of both games 1 & 4 vs Dallas, then seeing it quickly evaporate. Last year the problem was having no Manu, plus no scoring options outside of TD and TP. This season seems to mostly be due to less execution on defense and unforced turnovers that give up quick scores. I think both are related to the lack of familiarity with new & young players. The ability to stop an opponent’s run or get one key rebound late in the game is often about being where you’re supposed to be.

    I expect this to continue improving over the season. Cleaning up just a few mistakes would have this team with five extra wins at this point. The gap is not wide but it must be bridged for this squad to be more than a second round playoff team.

  • pastrypride

    I don’t see us as one impact player away from challenging the Lakers. Timmy looks great, but outside of him, we’ve just got a long, long list of guys playing ok to good. I don’t see how adding to that list, or having another ok or good player instead of one of the ones we’ve got, would change anything.

    The fundamental reason we’re not a contender is that we’re not the same team as when we were a contender; we don’t have Bowen or anyone who can do close to what he did. Timmy, though a smart, talented player, is not an especially intimidating interior defender and neither are any of our other bigs. Manu’s old. We can talk about adding pieces or learning rotations, but the fact is, the Timmy-Tony-Manu window is closed, and Bowen had even more to do with it than we realized. Don’t get me wrong, those are still three very good players. But over the last two and a half years, they’ve given no indication of being more than very good, which is a long way from championship material.

    I also have to say, I haven’t seen a very impressive level of energy or hussle from this team, and I don’t buy the idea that games only matter starting with the Rodeo trip. If they all bought into winning a championship, and were going to play accordingly, they’d be doing so by now.

  • Beat Counselor

    Ok, what I saw in the Memphis game last night was that Bogans missed 3 or 4 WIDE OPEN 3 point shots. This CANNOT happen. Just horrible.

    Other than that, I’m not sure if our defense was all that great yesterday. We seemed to be just trading baskets most of the night. Randolph showed why he is an All-Star.

    @Daniel
    I agree that having Iguodala and Dalembert would virtually guarantee a championship if not this year then next. I’m a big Dalembert fan, but I suspect that I am biased by what I’ve actually seen from him (ironically). Everytime I see him play I wish he were a Spur. But, then again, I don’t watch the Sixers too often and everyone always seems to be down on him and his contract. On the other hand, anyone that can frustrate the ultra-friendly Dwight Howard enough to have him elbow them in the face has got to be somewhat of a defensive presence.

    And Jacob is probably right; this trade would create too much of a drastic change in to the mid-season roster to reasonably expect the team to gel by the post season. But on the other hand, look how well the Bulls did last year after their big trade.

    We should be going for a defensive minded big like Camby, Jeff Foster, Haywood or Dalemert (by himself). There have got to be more guys like this that I haven’t thought of…

  • junierizzle

    I agree with Tristan Wilkins.

    I think everything will be fine.
    These last two games have proved that all the Spurs need is some stability and height. Mcdeezy starting is the way to go.
    He was starting when they started to turn it around and then POP sat him and thats when the trouble began again.
    I still don’t think people know exactly how huge having Bonner back is.
    ANother thing, the win over the HAWKS would have been more impressive if the SPURS didn’t turn the ball over. Everytime the SPurs pulled away they just gave the ball right back to the HAWKS. They should be good once they tighten up.

    As for the SPURS older players getting tired in the first, I wouldn’t make a huge deal about it.
    I think the reason TD’s shooting percantage is down is because all of the recent small ball they’ve been playing, plus the SPurs get an insane amount of lay-ups. SO when TD gets the Ball he might be out of rythm. Same for MANU. If they keep playing like this then MANU won’t have to do so much and have more accuracy in the 4th.

  • Drew

    The slugger we need is Brendan Haywood. Shot-blocking 7-footer with only 6 mil for a contract. Interior D problem solved. I’ll let someone else decide who we should trade for him.

  • JT

    Why does everyone keep saying Timmy looks great. He’s game has deteriorated lately. Don’t know why but it isn’t the same as when the season started.

  • kaveh

    lvmainman,

    You are DREAMING on Bosh. The guy is an animal, and no team would trade him away. He is a player, only a few out there, that are worth MORE than they are getting paid.

    When there is a salary cap, players getting the Max are typically worth MORE than they are getting paid. It’s just like a GPA of 4.0. It is the highest possible score, so a hard working and relatively smart student may get a 4.0, but so will the smartest and hardest working individual on the planet.

    Players like Kobe/Lebron/Wade are worth FAR higher than their contract. Someone like Lebron may be worth $50m or even $100m per year easily. Strictly in a financial sense.

    Bosh is the same only to a smaller extent. He is a max contract guy. He is worth MORE than his max contract. No way any team in their right mind trades him, unless they are getting a guy or guys who are also worth a lot more than their contract.

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