NBA Playoffs Leaderboard: Who Do You Want to Play?

by Matthew Tynan

Hello there, friends. Here’s your Master’s Sunday morning leaderboard update, for the NBA Playoffs.

The last two nights have gone well for San Antonio. By virtue of Duncan’s game-sealing block of Harden’s final attempt on Friday, and the Clippers defeating the Grizzlies on Saturday, the Spurs are now in the driver’s seat for the second seed in the conference. The only other caveat here is that the Rockets have to win out and remain tied with the San Antonio.

Here’s why: At this point, the Spurs are tied in the loss column with Houston, Memphis, and Los Angeles, which means if each team wins its remaining games, there will be a four-way tie (56-26). San Antonio has the tiebreaker over the Rockets, but not against the Grizzlies or Clippers. Still, because it’s a tie between more than two teams in the same division¹, the tiebreaker scenario becomes most victories against the other two teams which with they’re tied.

¹Because Los Angeles did NOT win the Pacific — that title belongs to Golden State — they’re going to lose a tiebreaker to any team that would win the Southwest Division. The only tiebreakers they still have a chance to win is for the third and fifth seeds.

The Spurs are now 5-3 against the Grizzlies and Rockets, Memphis is 4-4, and Houston is 3-5. That would make San Antonio division champions, which would then win the tiebreaker over the Clippers.

So, if every team wins out from here, it would be (2) Spurs v (7) Mavs, (3) Clippers v (6) Rockets, (4) Trail Blazers v (5) Grizzlies (Memphis has home court), in the first round.

Spurs fans: You’re now Rockets fans for the rest of the season as well.

Spurs remaining schedule: Sun, vs. PHO, Wed, @ NO

But, crazily enough, not a single thing is decided with the 2, 3, 5, and 6 seeds. So many things can still happen. If San Antonio loses tonight, they’re back in the 6 spot. If Houston loses tonight, the Spurs are the 5-seed regardless of whether they win or lose by virtue of the fact they do not have a tiebreaker over the Clippers or Grizzlies.

What the Grizzlies want

If you’re a Grizzlies fan, aren’t you comfortable in that 5 spot? You’d get home court in the first round because you have a better record than the Trail Blazers, and you’d get to avoid San Antonio until potentially the western conference finals, if not completely. Yes, there’s the whole Warriors problem, but I’m not sure that’s as certain death as playing the Spurs.

Still, for Memphis to reach the 2-seed, it needs to win out (mathematically speaking, this isn’t true, but if they lose a game it’s probably curtains if you’re hoping for all three other teams to lose again, too) and get a loss from either the Spurs or Rockets. The Grizz hold the head-to-head, two-team tiebreaker over both of them, and by virtue of winning the division, over the Clippers, too. But, they’ve got to win out, and that won’t be easy.

Remaining schedule: Mon, @ GSW; Wed vs. IND.

What the Clippers want

First and foremost, they’ve got to win out to have a real chance at the 2-seed, but you’re also rooting for the Spurs, Rockets, and Grizzlies to lose. All three of them. Because if just one or two of the three lose, there will be a division-winner with the same record as the Clippers, therefore surpassing L.A. There’s kind of a lot going against them at the moment.

Sure, they’d like the second seed, but the third seed is probably just fine for the Clips, especially if they can avoid Memphis and San Antonio. Not that the Rockets are some easy matchup, but the Grizzlies get in their heads, and you just don’t really want the Spurs right now. So if everyone wins out, I think L.A. would be happy.

Note: The Grizzlies are kind of beat up right now, so that’s something to keep an eye on.

Remaining schedule: Mon, vs. DEN; Tue, @ PHO.

What the Rockets want

Plain and simple — Houston needs to win out and hope the Spurs and Grizzlies each lose a game. In this scenario, they would then win the division, and therefore the second seed. Obviously this is the most ideal, but if they get a loss from just one of three teams, it would bump them up a spot.

I don’t really know who Houston hopes to play. The Rockets can obviously beat any team in the conference on any given night, but they’re so injured. Without the services of Donatas Montiejunas and Patrick Beverley, they’re in a bit of a bad place. The lineup they have is dangerous, but matching up with the rest of the conference is going to be a problem, I think.

Remaining schedule: Sun, vs. NO, Mon, @ CHA, Wed, vs. UTA.

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