Nine Draft Day Thoughts
1. Graydon and I will be around this evening with a bunch of our friends. Every blog in the TrueHoop Network will broadcast the same draft chat, pulling together fans and pundits from across the league. If you want to represent Silver and Black, be sure to join us. The fun begins around 5 pm CST. If you plan to enjoy the draft in the company of silver and black clad strangers, the Spurs and Toros are both hosting parties this evening. Follow the links for more information. You can watch the draft on ESPN 360.
2. We should expect to be surprised this evening. Leading up to the draft, we’ve done our level best to provide you information about those prospects who make the most sense for San Antonio. But the Spurs play with their cards close to the vest, and often surprise on draft night. Think George Hill. Think Ian Mahinmi.
Here’s my advice: don’t knee jerk. The Spurs are pretty good at what they do. One thing I learned at the Draft Combine is that every team is swimming in a sea of information about each player. Draft selections are not made lightly. Last year, I wasn’t thrilled by the Spurs draft. But looking back, they did just fine. They selected a talented reserve guard in George Hill, and found two players in the second round who stand a good chance of making this year’s roster. Malik Hairston and James Gist. Given where they selected, they could not have done much better.
3. How does the Richard Jefferson trade play into the draft? This is an interesting question because it goes against most of our immediate assumptions. When the Spurs landed Jefferson, my thought was that the remainder of their offseason would be restricted by the boundaries of luxury tax. But this doesn’t appear to be the case. In the last 24 hours R.C. Buford and Gregg Popovich have indicated the Spurs will aggressively seek out opportunities for further improvement in the weeks ahead. That being said, tonight is an open book.
If there is an opportunity to move into the first round, I expect the Spurs to take it. Look for them to target picks mid to late first, in hopes of catching passed-over talent.
4. Yesterday, Gregg Popovich said the Spurs would like to use their MLE on a “4”. Maybe that’s Antonio McDyess, maybe it’s Drew Gooden. We don’t know. But knowing the position is helpful. Unless someone like DeJuan Blair slides and the Spurs can buy/trade up to get him, I don’t expect the team to draft a power forward. But they can be crazy deceptive like that.
Tuesday night, R.C. Buford said the team might bring in one of their past picks from overseas to fill out the roster. He spoke with confidence about the possibility, but didn’t name anyone in particular. No problem. It’s a pretty easy list to narrow. In all likelihood, he’s referring to James Gist or Robertas Javtokas. Given the loss of Thomas and Oberto, and the need to add athleticism to the frontcourt, either player would make sense as an inexpensive roster addition. Tiago Splitter is still a year out.
Putting that all together, it’s easy to see the Spurs drafting a wing unless someone slides. And honestly, other than Richard Jefferson, San Antonio doesn’t have a true small forward on roster. Now is the time to put a developing player behind their new acquisition.
5. How could moving into the first round benefit the team? The obvious answer is that the talent is better. But it goes deeper than that. The Spurs have holes in the frontcourt and they need a reserve wing to groom behind Jefferson. I suspect Marcus Williams has a strong chance of assuming Jacque Vaughn’s role as third point, but the Spurs could perhaps go in that direction. We know they worked out several point guards leading up to the draft.
The late first round rookie salary scale could be a real help to the Spurs cap situation, provided they select guys who would contribute right away. Beginning at pick 18 and scaling down through 30, rookies are guaranteed 1.2 million to 824,000. Finding another George Hill at those prices would be huge.
6. DraftExpress: “Three teams that are looking to move into the first round are Miami, San Antonio and Houston. The Heat are supposedly looking at Taj Gibson and the Spurs are intrigued by Omri Casspi and Jonas Jerebko.”
7. Earlier in the week, Graydon and I received an email from a reasonably connected source saying the Spurs were trying to move to 22 in order to select Omri Casspi. Maybe that’t true, maybe it’s not. Since there was no way of knowing, we adopted a watch and see posture. Well, the Blazers did trade for the 22nd pick this evening. ESPN offers this take: “Why would the Blazers move up two spots in the draft? The word around the league was the Kings had zeroed in on Omri Casspi with the 23rd pick. Casspi could be a good pick for the Blazers to either keep or to bring over this year to provide more toughness in the front court.” It looks like Casspi will be off the board by 23.
8. I really like a handful of players the Spurs could select in the 2nd round. I hope they keep all of their picks and draft and stash or take a chance on someone to groom in Austin. This is not to say they’ll find a keeper in the second, but they can take a few stabs at a few potential-laden prospects. Maybe they get lucky. My list: Sergio Llull, Victor Claver, Nando De Colo, Danny Green, Patrick Beverley, DaJuan Summers, Sergey Gladyr, Emir Preldzic and Joe Ingles.
9. The Spurs took a big step forward by trading for Richard Jefferson. But the Lakers, the Shaq Cavs, and the Magic are still better teams. We shouldn’t expect anyone the Spurs draft at 37 to help their cause in a series against those teams. If the Spurs want to get into that class of contention, Jefferson really must become one of a few vital new pieces. The Spurs best chance to minimize the gap between them and elite status is getting it right with their MLE. Buford says he’s going to be aggressive this offseason. And that’s because he has no choice. It’s time to go all in.
