Monday, July 6th, 2009...10:45 am
No Room for Error
After rumors surfaced yesterday evening that the Spurs are potentially interested in Glen Davis, I came to an anxiety-induced realization: In the 2009 offseason arms race, there is no room for error.
Just to be clear, I don’t believe the Spurs are going to sign Davis: In DeJuan Blair we already have a stronger, longer, and I believe fundamentally more talented version of Davis. The rumor is probably just an attempt by Davis’ agent to net his client a larger contract. If a team as savvy as the Spurs is interested, shouldn’t you be too?
That being said, in some people’s opinion, acquiring Davis would not be a disaster. But at this point, the Spurs aren’t trying to avoid disasters: We are trying to build a championship roster. If we spend a significant percentage of our MLE on a player who can’t rebound and can’t defend elite big men, we will be a significant step behind next season’s contenders.
At this point, five organizations have fully committed themselves to the 2010 title hunt: Boston, Cleveland, Los Angeles, Orlando, and San Antonio. On the edge of this group lurks Portland, who still has the financial flexibility to acquire a player that takes them to the next level (although the amount of players who have the talent to do so is rapidly growing smaller). Despite the moves we’ve already made this offseason, I still think the Spurs, as currently composed, are only the 5th best team in the league.
Consider that. This roster, which is probably the most talented roster we have had since 2006, is still surpassed by 4 other franchises. That’s why this Davis rumor is so much more severe than it may appear. Davis is a fine player: a relatively average role player who can be relied upon to hit big shots in big games. A team could do worse. But at this point, the Spurs have specific needs, needs that must be met if we intend to win a fifth ring. And Davis, however likeable he may be, does not fulfill those needs.
85 Comments
July 6th, 2009 at 10:53 am
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Glen-Davis-in-San-Antonio-Fine-by-me?urn=nba,174939
spurs get davis according to yahoo sports but no other source confirms???
July 6th, 2009 at 10:55 am
Zainnn,
That is the article I linked in my piece. The report is speculative. Dwyer links to a Comcast Sports Network New England story that says Davis “could be gone to San Antonio.”
July 6th, 2009 at 10:56 am
McDyess. McDyess. McDyess.
July 6th, 2009 at 11:00 am
Also the fact that he’s a restricted free agent makes it less likely as well, right? We’d have to wait for Boston to decide while unrestrcited FAs are signing contracts. I really hope this is not true.
July 6th, 2009 at 11:03 am
Listening to Bill Simmons, The Sports Guy, rip apart Glenn Davis all last season has me very scared that we would use our money on a player that basically duplicates what we already have. I would be much more excited about picking up Channing Frye, who in my opinion fits our needs much more.
July 6th, 2009 at 11:33 am
what about the birdman, I bet we could pick him up very cheap. third in blocked shots last year, coming off the bench. Or I,ve heard rumors that kendrick perkins may be gone as he has had a falling out with doc that may be why they pushed so hard for sheed
July 6th, 2009 at 11:44 am
McDyess just does not excite me. He’s very solid, but how much of an upgrade is he from Kurt Thomas?
The best options I see are trading for Camby or signing “Birdman” Anderson. There just aren’t that many legit center prospects out there.
Someone on another site mentioned trading for Diop…at this point Rasho is better than nothing…. Maybe we should simply hope and pray for Splitter to come and solve all our problems…
July 6th, 2009 at 11:45 am
Didn’t I read somewhere that Birdman is really popular in Denver and likely to get resigned?
July 6th, 2009 at 11:56 am
Travis,
You got it, McDyess. Hopefully it works out. McDyess would be a great compliment to Duncan.
July 6th, 2009 at 11:58 am
I don’t think we have a chance at either Camby or Birdman. Birdman will be resigned and I don’t know how willing LA will be to trade Camby since they just got rid of Randolph. I agree that McDyess isn’t too big of an upgrade over Thomas (although I think he is defensively on the pick and roll), but he’s our best option left.
And I just can’t shake this feeling that the Spurs know something we don’t and are waiting to pull the trigger on something. Not sure if that means Splitter, but I just have a feeling about it with how they let Sheed go without much fight.
July 6th, 2009 at 12:03 pm
” Despite the moves we’ve already made this offseason, I still think the Spurs, as currently composed, are only the 5th best team in the league.”
I think this statement is true with the exception of Orlando. With Hedo gone and Gortat probably leaving I think they’ll slide a bit.
I’m optimistic, like many comments on this blog, that that the Spurs will surprise us with something good and putting us right there with the Lakers. It’d be nice to have a solid team together for a whole year instead of trying to pick someone up at the trade deadline if needed.
July 6th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
I agree, prospects are dim at this point for acquiring an impact big man. Camby and Birdman probably aren’t going anywhere…if there isn’t a Splitter surprise coming the Spurs are likely to remain the 4th or 5th best team in the League….
July 6th, 2009 at 12:08 pm
I agree with Greg. Sheed was too big of a prize for us to pursue passively unless the FO has something else up their sleeves (and we all know Haislip isn’t it). Hmmm….
Signing McDyess would be nice, he plays tough, boards well and can hit that open jumper at least as well as KT. Even with McDyess though, our best hope of winning a championship rests with Ginobili returning to the level he was playing at before the 08 playoffs.
July 6th, 2009 at 12:16 pm
I don’t think the Spurs were prepared to offer Sheed a 2 year deal and hamper the chance to sign Splitter next summer. They probably feel they can sign someone like McDyess and not blow up their future plans.
July 6th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
McDyess nearly averaged a double-double this past season. I’d say that’s a better upgrade than KT.
Why is everyone thinking that we’ve just now identified the missing piece to a championship team and behold, it’s here at the MLE!
The foundation is here already folks.
July 6th, 2009 at 12:22 pm
I agree with NL about the Spurs being the 4th best team in the league (ahead of Orlando) at this point.
But if you’re ranking chances of winning the championship, I think Orlando may be higher just because, ceteris paribus, they have a better chance of making it to the finals (where anything could happen). Even if Orlando has to go through both the Cavs and the Celts to get to the finals, they will have an easier road than the Spurs (who, presumably will have to go through the Lakers).
July 6th, 2009 at 12:39 pm
We have scorers now (parker, manu,RJ, and duncan)we need Defense.Defense. Defense (birdman can block shots) Let’s be boring again and play defense, the offense will come.
July 6th, 2009 at 12:49 pm
Regarding Orlando, I’m not sure — I think they’re a better regular season team, but I think they also just lost the size mis-match that played so much in their favor in the playoffs this year. Carter is the better talent, other things being equal, but Turkoglu and Lewis each made the other more deadly because virtually no one else has athletic guys big enough to defend both of them when they’re on the floor at the same time. I think losing Turkoglu will hurt them more than they realize.
July 6th, 2009 at 12:56 pm
I hear this talk about us signing the big baby davis, and I hope that the spurs have talked to the celtics front office and we’ve agreeded to sign davis, and trade him and finley or bonner or someone else other than the big 4 for kendrick perkins
July 6th, 2009 at 12:59 pm
Gray, I read on espn that david lee(knicks) might only make the qualifying offers of 1.8 or 2.6 mil for one year. any chance the spurs give him a look? he’s a good player and someone who can make a difference. spurs still have the 5.6 mle since they did not use it on sheed. i think Lee would be way better than big baby davis, younger and more athletic than mcdyess, and more developed than a channing frye. plus he is still a young player. think the spurs have looked at him at all?
July 6th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
Kobes great, but the Lakers strength when they kill us has been that Gasol, Bynum, Odom frontline. When we try to match up with Duncan, Bonner, and a Rookie, and whoever else up front that succumbed to the Mavs, a deep playoff run is just not realistic. Shot blocking, shot blocking, shot blocking. It’s really that simple.
July 6th, 2009 at 1:20 pm
TrueFan-
I disagree with the notion that playing the Lakers will be more difficult than getting through the Celtics and Cavs back to back. If we are going on the assumption (which seems fair right now) that there are only 5 legit contenders and that Orlando/San Antonio are 4/5 that would leave standings something like this (apologies to Cleveland):
West:
1 - Lakers
2 - Spurs
East:
1 - Boston
2 - Cleveland
3 - Orlando
Orlando would have to beat Cleveland on the road, then Boston on the road, then the Lakers on the road in the finals.
San Antonio would have to beat the Lakers on the road, then Boston/Cleveland, likely on the road. The conference semifinals would be a home series against a second tier team… Portland? Dallas? 82 games away from the playoffs, this seems to be preferable overall.
Whichever team it happens to be in the semis, I think you have to say the odds are better for the #2 in the West than the #2 or #3 in the East.
I also have a gut feeling that catching Kobe and the Lakers before the title is directly on the line might give the challenger a better chance to win the series. In practice, of course, it may well come down to which teams are healthy at the right time.
July 6th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
It’s a little early to pencil the Spurs in as the two seed. In our own conference, look for the Hornets to bounce back. This will be the Trailblazers break through year, with or without Odom, I see there odds of the WCF as on par with San Antonio’s. I don’t see the Nuggets making the WCF’s again, but they will return with the same team, and a still improving JR Smith and Anthony. It’s difficult imagine the Rocket’s losing their Big Three and still competing, but theoretically Houston could still add McDyss and Marion to Ariza. Point is, much too early to pencil in a team whipped by the Mavericks into the number two spot.
July 6th, 2009 at 1:30 pm
oh lol thats cool well nice find man i always go on google news to find news about spurs and i guess you do too. well this aquisition of big baby just brings youth to our team. he also has much future potential as other people have told us before. hopefully he does not take up our mle and we can once again be the lakers nightmare in the finals this year!!!
July 6th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
I can’t see what Big Baby is going to bring to the team that we don’t already have. He is a role player, not a starter. He isn’t worth the MLE nor is it worth the risk that Boston would match or just leaves the Spurs in limbo for a week while other free agents are snatched up.
He is an average defender at best and poor rebounder. These are the two key areas the Spurs need to improve upon. We don’t need another big man who can score but not defend as we already have Bonner for that.
Now that Sheed is gone bring on McDyess.
July 6th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
I agree with ChillFAN about the Lakers’ frontcourt being our problem. Even moreso, I believe Gasol is the ultimate roadblock to another Finals appearance for the Spurs. Throughout the playoffs, a lot of TV and online commentators talked about Odom making the difference for the Lakers in the playoffs. My impression of the Lakers this past playoffs was that without Odom, they might not have won the championship, but without Gasol, they wouldn’t have been in the Finals in the first place. If the Lakers had paid attention to the writings of John Hollinger, they probably wouldn’t have lost more than 1 game to Houston or Denver. I believe our championship aspirations depend on how much we can neutralize Gasol. With that said, I don’t think Davis cuts it in advancing our goals, but McDyess might.
July 6th, 2009 at 2:03 pm
Big Baby is Bonner without a 3 pt shot, but better ball handling. Why would the Spurs waste time wanting him? He’d grab Blair’s minutes and stunt his growth.
The more I think about it, the best option other than McDyess left for the Spurs as a free agent is Rasho Nesterovic. He knows the system, can make a FT jumper or jump hook, and can help defensively.
The Spurs need a big (ie the length(6’10″ or taller) and heft(250 lbs or more)) to deal with the Bynum and Gasol, or Garnett, Wallace, Perkins, or Shaq and Z, or Oden and Pryzbilla, or Yao or Dwight Howard. No way Duncan can endure a regular season and playoff run, dealing with all these bigs by himself and have the energy and less wear on his knees to be effective. We need to replace the heft and savvy of Thomas and Oberto in the post against the better teams.
Birdman isn’t leaving Denver, Odom won’t leave l.a., Bass is good but too short, McDyess seems reluctant to leave Detroit, Gortat seems Dallas bound, Pachulia - is he good enough?, Hollins will get tossed around like a rag doll, Ely and Wilcox have low bball IQ’s, Oberto is his heart fixed?, Varejo is too limited offensively.
Nesterovic seems to be the best option left as a free agent.
Maybe the Spurs have a trade option up their sleeves, but I’m getting depressed. Why would Rasheed want to be a 6th man?
July 6th, 2009 at 2:13 pm
The Case for McDyess
Folks who are saying that McDyess wouldn’t really be an upgrade over Kurt Thomas have it half right and all wrong. The key point is that McD is the player Thomas was…three years ago. Let’s look at the numbers shall we? Both players entered the league in 95-96. KT is 2 years older but McD missed a full season because of his knees. So that’s basically 3 years of comparative basketball youth McD has on KT.
3 seasons ago (05-06), KT was putting 8.6 pts and 7.8 rbs for Phoenix in about 26.6 minutes per game. Those numbers seem like a reasonable predictor as to what McD will put up this season, based on what he did last year, especially since the players skill sets are remarkably similar.
Both are good post defenders, esp. vs. bigger 4′s and 5′s (which would also make things easier on Timmy). Both can hit the open mid-range jumper. Both are smart on-court players and solid off-court citizens.
Now who wouldn’t want a savvy starting big man who gives us about 9 points, 8 boards and 25 minutes a game and wouldn’t mind sharing time w/ young’uns like Blair and Mahinmi?
This sounds like an ideal fit, one that could move us up from the 5th best team in the NBA pre-season rankings right into the top 3. I think that single move takes us from pretender to contender in one fell swoop.
July 6th, 2009 at 2:16 pm
Ok, I’ve been reading some of the comments and wanted to weigh in.
First as far as ranking the NBA powerhouse I have us tied for 3rd.
1.Lakers- assuming they resign Odom
2.Celtics-close 2nd w/the addition of Sheed
3.Spurs and Cavs-both teams have to be tied until we see how they fill out their rosters, Spurs still need to shore up who is going to start next to Duncan (like I’ve said I am pulling for Mcdyess) and the Cavs still need one more athletic perimeter player not named Lebron. Once we see how these needs are addressed we can then accurately rank them, if the Cavs are able to pull off Marion or Grant Hill that puts them in front of us but if they have to settle for a Matt Barnes type and we do pull of getting Mcdyess I think that puts the Spurs in 3rd by themselves.
5.Orlando-I agree with the comment earlier that they are going to miss Turk more than they realize, it’s like the dont realize what got them past the Cavs, the Cavs werent able to match up with Rashard at the 4 and Turk at the 3, now they are talking of having a more traditional lineup moving Rashard to the 3 and playing VC at the 2, bad move. The only thing that made Rashard so valuable was his ability to pull opposing 4′s out to the perimeter and allow Dwight to dominate inside.
Also one of the comments said it was too early to rank the Spurs as the #2 team in the West and I disagree. The Hornets are trying to shed salary and is rumored to still be willing to dump Chandlers contract any way they can, possibly with a trade that would net them Ben Wallace who they would probably try to buy out. Also Peja and Mo Petterson will be one more year older.
Denver still has to prove to me that they can sustain what they had over a full season when they are no longer the surprise team, you know kinda like what Utah wasnt able to do a couple of years ago and New Orleans last year.
July 6th, 2009 at 2:23 pm
I disagree completely and of course, this centers that each team is basically at full strength. Take Cleveland out of the mix in this respect.
While Lebron is probably the best player in the league, Mo Williams was the second best player on the team. Give me another example where a team had a “Mo Williams” as their second best player and won the NBA Title. Shaq is still a great talent too, but Mo Williams is still your third best player.
As for comparing Big Baby to Blair, that’s wishful thinking. Blair is the better rebounder but Davis has two NBA seasons of proof he can play in this league. His offensive game is also more complete.
If DeJuan Blair ends up being as good as Big Baby is right now, we won’t NEED to pick up anyone in free agency.
The measure of our free agent pickup will be very simple. If he ends up helping to defend the rim and rebound - he’ll be considered a success.
While the Spurs have already have what they need between Blair, Mahinmi, Bonner and Haislip - they also might not. Using the mid level is an insurance policy against it but it can also be more.
The Spurs could stay where they are right now and no team is discernibly better than San Antonio.
I’ve posed this question a million times - who did San Antonio UPSET on the way to 4 different Championships?
It won’t be easy - for San Antonio, LA, Boston, Cleveland, Orlando included - not the way these teams are equipped. But it should be fun and the Spurs won’t have to upset anyone to be recognized as the best of them. One for the thumb is in his sights and this year Timmy bringing a squad.
July 6th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
Posed this question a million times???-who did San Antonio UPSET on way to championships? Not sure what you even mean with the question. Do you mean that the Spurs CAN upset other teams? Or WILL upset other teams? San Antonio was arguably not the clear best team (on paper) in the West in 99, 01, or in 07 we were probably third best in the west. Meanwhile the Lakers had a great regular season last year and they won. We were never even in striking distance. Again, What’s your point?
July 6th, 2009 at 2:41 pm
It’s all starting to make sense. The Haislip signing, the rumored Davis offer that’s coming, the supposed interest in Bass and Frye, the not reportedly aggressively pursuing Wallace and/or McDyess (which is baffling).
The Spurs are fully committed to getting younger. That’s obvious, but after acquiring Jefferson, Blair, McClinton, and with Hairston and/or Gist expected to make the team in addition to Mahinmi being healthy, I suspect many felt that when coupled with the veterans they lost, that that would suffice, at least this off season, as far as getting younger. Apparently not.
If this team signs Davis, count them out in terms of competing for the championship. The front line would be way too undersized, inexperienced, and downright lacking in talent. No length, no shot blocking, limited rebounding. Have a look at the front lines of the other four contenders and the other two teams nipping at the Spurs heals (Blazers, Nuggets). Maybe they could beat the ladder two in a playoff series, but the former four? Not a chance.
Duncan needs to step in now while there’s still time and insist they sign McDyess. Otherwise, he’ll be battling amongst the trees virtually alone next season.
July 6th, 2009 at 3:25 pm
I know at least one person above mentioned Orlando not being better and I agree. They lost Turkoglu, Gortat, and Lee. Replaced them with Carter. That’s a net loss to me. And a big one.
July 6th, 2009 at 3:59 pm
Sensationalism at its best here. Everybody is really caught up in keeping up with other teams moves. How are the spurs the 5th best team? Orlando?? They basically trade Turk, Lee, and Alston for Carter. Its ridiculous to even say thats a break even at this point. The spurs are the only team not giving away or losing pieces to add free agents. Boston might be one of those teams but it seems they might have lost Big Baby.
Spurs dont need (want is another consideration) another superstar/alpha dog. In fact, there isn’t a sport in existence where a team of superstars fields the greatest collective unit. Big Baby effectively guarded Timmy (as much as Timmy can be guarded), and Boston rode the guy in the playoffs this year. He isn’t tipping anybody over the top, and certainly doesn’t deserve star money but he fills a roster nicely, which is exactly what San Antonio should be prioritizing.
Nobody in the NBA has a team head and shoulders above the other contenders, and they shouldn’t. If the Spurs had a choice of a healthy roster as is, or any free agent the choice would be clear. The spurs have their stars, and are currently in the process of building the suppourting cast. This is the best Duncan team assembled so far, and thats saying alot considering Duncan teams have defeated the Shaq/Kobe era. The idea isn’t to build a team that is the most dangerous, but to to develop a group where you know exactly what you’ll get every time, since its consistency that rules the playoffs. The Spurs obviously would have been a more talented team with Sheed, but throw a Big Baby (or any reasonably reliable skill set) in the mix and I’d trust a healthy Spurs team led by Pop to wear down playoff opponents. Health is concern one here, but Boston and San Antonio are the biggest summer winners. Considering injuries, Boston basically added Garnett and Sheed, and Spurs basically added Manu and RJ. The difference is that the spurs did it not only without losing usable role players (which Boston might do too if they keep Big Baby), but by adding them (Blair and these news guys I keep reading about). By the way, they also got younger and more explosive. Also, I’m pretty sure a healthy Spurs beat a healthy Celtics last year. As I’ll get to later, a close match isn’t the worst thing in the world.
The best/only thing you could say about Thomas and Oberto was that they were big. You certainly couldn’t rely on them to be effective against any of the other contenders so who cares if we lost them if our sights are on a title.
I never write on blog posts, but I’m stuck studying a lot recently and felt the urge. I’d say to trust the Front Office, and not be too dissapointed at trying to find a savior for a team that doesn’t need one. Use that money to find what they do need; anyone who will make them better than they already are when playing the contenders. They have already built a team that can win a title, and thats about all you can ask. Spurs fans have been spoiled, and should remember that when Spurs rosters have a capability to win they usually do.
July 6th, 2009 at 4:13 pm
ChillFAN-
I’m starting those standings with the widely (but loosely) held assumption that there are only 5 contenders for the NBA crown next year and that all of them stay healthy enough that they are slotted by overall quality.
Portland: These guys may indeed make a breakthrough this year. In fairness, they were a tiebreaker removed from being the #2 last year and it seems fair to say that they have room to improve with such a young, deep roster. Aside from the RJ pick up, the Spurs are getting Manu back. It seems to me that the Spurs have the considerable edge there.
Houston: Without Yao, this team is not a threat over the course of a season.
Denver: This team could certainly compete in the West. They’ll be fielding a team much like last years by all appearances and they really hit their stride near the end of the season. Again, a team that finished with the same regular season record as the Spurs. The Nuggets have stayed put so far. The Spurs have improved greatly. Ad in.
Dallas, Utah and New Orleans all have some compelling things working for them, but I don’t think any of them have 60 win potential. That could reasonably be what it takes to get the #2 seed in the West.
As with all predictions (however flawless), this is all subject to change. Injuries will happen. Good players will inexplicably lose it. Players that are off the radar right now will shift the landscape in a meaningful way. Some team will drop off as quickly as The Mighty Ducks between the first and second movies. Another team will improve as quickly as The Mighty Ducks during the movies.
Free agents can’t even sign yet… it is very early. Countless things will unfold before the first tip off and it only picks up from there. In the meantime, there is only the comfort of speculation… sweet, sweet speculation. I’m not suggesting we skip to the playoffs and take the 2 seed. I also do not think it is an unreasonable projection.
July 6th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
I know Dallas is reporting that Gortat is their man but until he signs the dotted line, anything is possible. Has Gortat and the Spurs held any meetings?
July 6th, 2009 at 5:14 pm
Why are people talking about signing Davis? The rumor came from a source that one of the writers for 48MoH verified as an unreliable source. Glen Davis adds nothing to our team. I’d be very upset if the FO signs him. He’s undersized, not superbly defensive, and not the rebounder we need. Blair is what Davis would be for us.
What we need is a rebounder-shotblocker-big man defender. So I really wanted Sheed for SA. He could help Duncan guard the Shaqs, Paus, and Dwights of the world. (I personally believe in order to get through LA, we need to have two quality post defenders to match Bynum and Gasol). So who fits the bill? McDyess, Nesterovic, and (in my dreams) Splitter. McDyess fills the hole that Kurt Thomas left but slightly better (check syndeylla’s comment). Even though he’s not a superstar, he gives us the defense and rebounding we need. I like what Chi living spurs fan said. We don’t need another superstar such as Sheed. However, we NEED another post presence. Why oh why can’t we get Tiago Splitter?
Personally, I don’t understand why people are saying that we can’t sign someone to a two year deal at the MLE because we want to sign Splitter next year. In order to get in the NBA, Splitter will have to take a huge pay cut because he’ll be on a first round rookie contract. We should be able to pick him up easy with the biannual exception. Am I right? Plus, does anyone know the chances he comes this year?
He’s the center we need so Duncan can go where he’s best, the power forward position. Although Splitter isn’t the stellar rebounder we need, he would help immensely, especially defensively. I think of him like a Marcus Camby with average rebounding skill. If we could get him, I think every question would be answered. We could let Pop do the rest.
But as it stands right now, we need another post presence. Not necessarily another superstar. We already have 4 stars - and thats more than usual for a Spurs team. So anybody have any insight on the Splitter situation?
July 6th, 2009 at 5:16 pm
I’m not really sold on McDyess or Davis. While both are somewhat known factors, I don’t think either adds enough to the team to be worth the MLE. McDyess will get you 9-10 points and rebounds per game, on solid defense and efficient offense, that’s it. It’s solid, but with teams improving, is it enough? I’m not so certain, especially with any falloff due to age on the part of Manu and Timmy. Davis could put up similar numbers, and is younger and therefore has more upside, however, I’m not really convinced that an undersized power forward is really the key to what the Spurs need in their roster let alone starting rotation. If that’s the case, then you still end up starting Bonner, I’m under the understanding that the Spurs want an upgrade from Bonner, not necessarily someone that will replicate his production (3 pt shooting and height) but someone that can produce at least as if not more effectively than he does. Therefore, if we’re looking at players who we’re not going to pay the MLE for, and are a.) athletic and b.) have room to improve, I think Chris Wilcox deserves a shot. While he may not have had a good run around the Clippers, Sonics, Thunder, or Knicks, he certainly is a.) athletic and considering he’s only 26, I would say he still has some room for improvement, especially playing with such a singular talent as Tim Duncan. I think he hasn’t really had a chance, and I think he could be had for cheap. It certainly gives us options to work with, and I see him as possibly the Roger Mason of this year’s free agency.
July 6th, 2009 at 6:03 pm
I’m not too high on Wilcox but maybe he deserves a shot. other options will be Gooden, Bass, and McDyess to name a few…
July 6th, 2009 at 6:10 pm
Jaceman,
McDyess is a solid litany of jabs over several rounds. Wilcox is a roundhouse swing. The Spurs have all the roundhouses they need in Duncan, Parker, Ginobili and Jefferson. Aim small, miss small. Plus, I’d put good money on one of Blair, Mahinmi or Haislip (or more than one) exceeding expectations this season. 9/10 times the Spurs find people who can contribute, and in surprisingly good ways. You know this. You’ve written about it.
Re: Wilcox. The Spurs have no doubt talked with Presti about him. They probably voted him up or down based on that report.
July 6th, 2009 at 6:13 pm
If we’re looking for under-the-wire big men that might be available, what about Detroit’s other former Wallace from the championship season — Big Ben? This, of course, assumes that Phoenix buys him out this summer to save more cash.
I know that he’s stated his intention to retire, but maybe he could be talked into one more year at the right price.
July 6th, 2009 at 6:16 pm
Episode IV: Manu Hope — You are of course entitled to your opinion, but I stand by my contention that, as currently constituted, the Spurs are the 4th best (of the top five “favorites” for next season), but will have a harder time making the finals than Orlando.
As others have noted, Orlando has lost much more this offseason than Vince Carter could ever hope to replace. Nonetheless, I frankly don’t see much difference between Cleveland, Boston, and Orlando. I don’t think Shaq is enough (at this stage of his career) to put Cleveland over the hump. I have concerns about Garnett’s mileage and whether he will ever be the same player for Boston. Without him, they aren’t much of a contender, notwithstanding their “success” (overrated, in my opinion) this past postseason. Plus, Ray Allen is a year older, and though he has surprised me by extending his career this long, it really will start catching up to him at some point.
The Lakers, on the other hand, were clearly the most talented team in the league this year — it was the inconsistency of their effort that made them their own worst enemy. While I agree with others who have suggested that LA may ultimately regret letting Ariza go in favor of Artest, I think Artest brings a toughness that COULD be the mental toughness that would make the Lakers a truly great team. I know, I can’t believe I just implied that Artest could be considered a mentally tough player, but compared to the rest of the divas on that team….
Thus, even if Orlando had to beat the Cavs and the Celts on the road as you posit, they would merely be playing two teams of talent roughly equal to their own. For all the Spurs’ brilliance and, quite frankly, luck so far this offseason, their front court issues leave them a clear second to the Lakers (as much as I hate to admit it) in the West at this point, and thus, in my opinion, with a tougher road to hoe than Orlando to make the finals.
July 6th, 2009 at 6:19 pm
Ben Wallace? No thanks I would prefer Drew Gooden coming back over him.
July 6th, 2009 at 6:24 pm
Whatever happened to Yiannis Bourousis? weren’t the spurs going to offer him a contract? he would make an awesome starting center
July 6th, 2009 at 6:25 pm
well said Tim,
Can’t wait to see the Spurs final roster… i hope Blair, Mahinmi and McClinton or maybe Gists makes the team…
The only question left is who plays along TD? and who plays behind RJ? we know Finley is there… but i think we can imporve on that… Hairston might be the man… unless we still have trades coming up…
July 6th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
Drew,
The Splitter situation is a little different than you suppose. Splitter is not tied to the rookie scale as of next summer. The Spurs just used their BAE on Haislip, so it won’t be available again until 2011. Plus, Splitter will command more cash than that. He projects-via the fairly reliable wizardry of John Hollinger-as a 16/10 guy.
And besides, the rookie scale and BAE are exclusive of one another. Plus, there is the provision discussed in the first URL below. After we published the story contained within that link, everyone changed their language on Splitter. For example, Hollinger writes, “Tiago Splitter (Spurs) likely will be jumping to San Antonio a year from now, when the Spurs will no longer be bound by the rookie salary scale in signing him.” Prior to the post in question-and the work of those cited within it-everyone assumed and wrote that Splitter was bound by the rookie scale. No more.
http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2009/04/23/tiago-splitter-news/
http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2009/07/03/the-bucher-tweet/
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=EuropeanProspects-090623
July 6th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
The Express News is now refuting that the Spurs are close to making an offer to Big Baby. link here: http://blogs.mysanantonio.com/weblogs/courtside/2009/07/no-big-baby-off.html
July 6th, 2009 at 6:28 pm
Just saw this posted on express news about big baby, I think we can relax, for now..”No Big Baby offer imminent”
http://blogs.mysanantonio.com/weblogs/courtside/2009/07/no-big-baby-off.html
July 6th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
Martin,
He resigned with Olympiacos. Some think the Greek reports were cooked up by his agent. Although, dozens of Euro news outlets reported them. Of course, there was never any word from the Spurs one way or the other.
July 6th, 2009 at 6:45 pm
Whoo-hoo! Color me happy.
July 6th, 2009 at 7:07 pm
[...] the options for Davis appear to be dwindling. The Spurs are said to be in the hunt, but the guys over at 48 Minutes of Hell aren’t thrilled about the notion of Baby taking up DeJuan Blair’s [...]
July 6th, 2009 at 7:09 pm
Tim-
Humor my free agent fantasies for a moment. If we were to sign McDyess for the MLE (as I argued agressively for above), would we still have anything left to reasonably sign the likes of Rasho? Or did the Haislip BAE signing make that a non-starter?
In an ideal but still-fathomable world, I see him as a servicable backup at the 4 or 5, especially since his Spurs system reaquantanceship period would be near nil. I realize that even if it could be done, there might not be enough roster spots for everyone. But I’m curious about the financial feasibility. Could it even be done?
July 6th, 2009 at 7:15 pm
Sydeylla,
Non-starter. Once our MLE is used up, we’re stuck. At that point we’re left with minimum contracts (summer league and/or training camp), rookie contracts and trades.
The Spurs don’t have to use all of their MLE on one player. Theoretically, they could sign McDyess for 4 million and leave some change in case they want to chase a late season addition such as they did with Drew Gooden last year. But McDyess will probably ask for a receive the full MLE. The full MLE will come in at 5.8, or so.
As things currently stand, the Spurs will have the expiring contracts of Matt Bonner and Mike Finley to use in February if they need to trade for another player.
July 6th, 2009 at 7:25 pm
Tim,
I hope the Spurs won’t just use the full MLE on one Player. They have pretty good bigs already… in TD, Haislip, Blair, Gist and Mahinmi. (but the mostly not proven, i’m hoping that Haislip, Blair, Gist and Mahinmi won’t be busts so i’m keeping my fingers crossed)
about a possible trade, i think Finley has a bird right so he can refuse a trade correct?
July 6th, 2009 at 7:36 pm
Tim,
thanks for the clarification. i was unaware that the BAE was how the Spurs signed Haislip.
now all hopes for getting Splitter this year are pretty much off, correct? if he can get a lot more next year, then there’s no reason he’d come over now.
July 6th, 2009 at 7:43 pm
To all those who think we are better than the Magic,
I definitely think you have a point. The Spurs have improved this offseason, and I agree that, with the loss of Hedo and Gortat, the Magic have gotten slightly worse (even with the acquisition of Carter).
But I still believe Orlando is better than SA, or for conservative reasons, I will continue to argue so for the time being.
First and foremost, just because the Spurs got better and the Magic got worse does not mean the Spurs got better than the Magic. The Spurs lost in 5 games in the first round; the Magic made it to the Finals. It would take a significant amount of improvement for a first-rounder to overtake a team that made it to the Finals. I am optimistic; I don’t know if I am that optimistic.
And, as I said, I agree that the Magic will regret losing both Turkoglu and Gortat. But, it is not as if the rest of the team will remain stagnant. Both Jameer Nelson and Dwight Howard will continue to improve this season. Remember that we haven’t seen the Magic with a fully healthy Jameer Nelson since January, when the Magic were playing very well.
Although it is factually accurate to say they lost Gortat, Lee, and Turkoglu but only gained Carter, in a sense the Magic we saw during the postseason gained Carter and Nelson. Even though Nelson saw court time during the Finals, we was not the All-Star caliber player we saw during the first half of the season.
I also think people are underestimating the importance of Ryan Anderson, who is the hidden gem in the Carter trade. Anderson is a promising young PF, and will contribute meaningful minutes for Orlando this season.
A starting 5 of Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, Dwight Howard and either Ryan Anderson or a currently unsigned FA big is a very dangerous lineup.
And last season, during Orlando’s regular season sweep of the Spurs, it wasn’t Hedo or Gortat who gave us problems: It was Nelson and Howard. Those problems still remain.
I definitely think you can make an argument either way but, instinctively, I tend to favor the team that performed better the previous season.
July 6th, 2009 at 7:48 pm
What I am saying is that teams don’t “upset” their way to the NBA Title. A.I.’s Sixers and Lebron’s Cavs that lost in an NBA Finals is about the closest thing in recent memory.
They each had a superstar talent, but if you really follow the game you know this - It takes more than one Superstar to win the title.
Generally, only a select group of teams has a realistic shot at a championship and when the Spurs won theirs - they were at or near the top in terms of talent alone.
The product San Antonio plans to put on the floor this season, is in that elite group. As I said, it won’t be easy - but if your team does not reside in SA, LA, Cleveland, Orlando or Boston - you have no chance at winning a championship.
July 6th, 2009 at 7:50 pm
Various fans-
We’re not talking about which team has a better chance to make the Finals. We’re talking about which team has a better chance to win a championship. If you are going to use the reasoning that “anything can happen” in the Finals, it seems that you would have to extend that argument to every other series.
If you are willing to install the Lakers as prohibitive favorites in the West, they should be just as stacked for the Finals.
July 6th, 2009 at 7:50 pm
Robby,
My understanding is that Finley has a right of refusal. So yes, you’re correct.
The rules for this are kind of funny, as it sounds like you know. But for our other readers…basically, Finley gets a right of refusal because he’s playing on an expiring contract (with forthcoming Bird rights) and has been with the Spurs for four seasons. If he consents to a trade, he becomes Non-Bird free agent.
It’s not a small thing. Devean George blew up the first Mavs-Nets Harris/Kidd trade by invoking his right of refusal.
That’s how I remember it, at least.
July 6th, 2009 at 8:04 pm
Drew,
Well, we’re half-guessing on Haislip. But reports are that he signed a guaranteed contract worth the exact amount of the bi-annual. We call horses with stripes zebras.
He’s also a stud in Europe. No way he comes back to the NBA for anything less than guaranteed money.
About Splitter: if the Spurs sign McDyess, then yes, Splitter is a goner until at least next season.
However, there is some inducement for him to come now, if, in fact, Baskonia would accept a buyout. That inducement is an opportunity to start the clock on his second NBA contract. The second contract is the big one, and if he plays it right, he’ll still be young enough to warrant a sizable third deal or hefty extension. Age is an extremely important consideration when judging contract worth.
Put differently, Splitter is 24. If he signs a 3 year deal prior to this season, he’ll be approaching his prime for his second deal, and should get a big pay day. Let’s say he goes with a standard 5 year with an ETO after year 4. That means he can get a last big deal while still in his young 30s. Personally, if not for his sister’s health, I would advised him to make the move last season simply to start the clock. But he’s still young enough.
Right now, he could have contracts at 24, 27, and an extension at 31. And then think about McDyess and Wallace. That forth contract, even in your mid-30s, can be nice retirement money. The longer Splitter waits…
July 6th, 2009 at 8:57 pm
Thanks Tim for further clarification of the Finley situation, that’s how I remember it too… now lets get that BIG to play along with TD…
July 6th, 2009 at 9:21 pm
Graydon:
Did you forget that we are gaining Manu as well? Doesn’t that warrant a move ahead of Orlando? You can’t say Orlando improves because they get Carter AND Nelson, and then not give the Spurs the same concession with the return of Manu. I think Orlando peaked and will slide from here on out unless Howard completely overhauls his offensive game and becomes a first option scorer. And honestly, after 2 years of personal tutelage under Ewing, if Dwight only has half a right jump hook now, he’s never going to have anything more than that. Orlando is only as good as Howard, and I think Howard has peaked.
Also, you can’t use the “they made it to the Finals and we got bounced in the first round” line either. We were missing our second best player and our best player was hurt. We ran into a tough matchup in Dallas, while Orlando’s toughest test was beating LeBron 5 on 2.5. We’ve already beat LeBron.
My top 5:
LA
Boston
SA
Orlando
Cleveland
Cleveland didn’t get any better with Shaq. He’s going to clog up the lane so much for Lebron, causing 2 scenarios: LeBron is going to get pissed at running into Shaq’s back on every drive and force a trade or something, or LeBron will just turn into a jumpshooter. Big Z may have been soft, but at least he could hit the corner 3 and stretch the floor to allow LeBron to attack the rim.
Boston looks to be the best in the east, assuming Garnett is healthy. I put the Spurs after them because they have won a title more recently with the same lineup, plus they have the added bonus Sheed signing, which improves them on paper.
The Lakers are the current champs, and will remain the favorite until they lose in the playoffs, whenever that may be.
July 6th, 2009 at 9:45 pm
ThatBigGuy,
I think you are absolutely right to point out the addition of Manu. The same principle I applied to Nelson applies to Ginobili. Fair point.
But, in both of our losses to Orlando last season, Manu was healthy and on the court.
Also, Howard is only 23 years old. I don’t think it is fair to say he has peaked.
“Orlando’s toughest test was beating LeBron 5 on 2.5. We’ve already beat LeBron.”
The 2007 version of the Spurs beat the Cavs. Last season’s Magic beat a much better version of the Cavs. How does that favor the Spurs? In my mind, the Magic beat a much better team, and did so with a squad that, at least temporally, remains more closely related to its current manifestation.
July 6th, 2009 at 10:19 pm
ThatBigGuy,
You have certainly have a point…
but i think there are reasons why Graydon thinks Orlando is still better than the Spurs
What to hope for
1. Manu’s comeback should definitely not be
ignored, but he’s coming back from injury and
we don’t know how good and better he is right
now (but i’m hoping he will return strong like
Manu of ’05)
2. We get RJ, that move really gives us a boosts in
the wing spot. We think he’s a right fit but then
again we still don’t know on how it will play
out (we hope for the best of course!)
3. We haven’t use our MLE so there’s hope here to
improve our roster.
4. Let’s See how things plays out after the summer
league, by that time have a better grasps on
who’s gonna make the team… lets keep our eyes
on guys like Gist and Hairston
5. George Hills development, with one year under
his belt he might be a better player for the spurs.
NOT sure yet
1. We drafted Blair/McClinton about to sign
Haislip, if we get lucky these guys will be the
last pieces of the championship puzzle.
(Blair for his rebounding, McClinton for his
sharpshooting skills and Haislip for his athletic
abilities.)
* We still don’t know how will their games
translate to the NBA, Haislip in particular
struggled on his early years in the NBA but from
what i’ve heard he improve alot (we hope!)
(also lets cross our fingers on Blair knees!)
2. Mahinmi’s comeback…. we don’t know what to
expect from him yet and again he’s coming
from an injury.
3. Duncans health: Tim’s gotten a little older and
he has a knee injury last season so lets hope he
gets real healthy.
4. Backup wing needs a little more work (Finley
might not get the job done)
5. Consistent outside shooting, during the early
part of the last season Mason Jr. and Bonner fill
this roles nicely…. however as the season
progress and in to the playoffs they kind a M.I.A
We have alot of reasons to be optimistics for our SPURS this upcoming season… but i say this, lets wait ’till we have the final roster, and wait some more, maybe 15-25 games into the season, then we might have a better claim on where we stand in NBA. Go Spurs Go!
July 7th, 2009 at 12:26 am
Im wondering if the spurs can just save thier MLE for a trade during the season?
Also, is Marion completly off thier rader.
And will someone tell me exactly how Drew Gooden pissed Pop off so bad that hes not really on the radar?
July 7th, 2009 at 1:56 am
Michael, I appreciate the clarification. The Spurs did not UPSET their way to four championships, because in those years they had championship-caliber rosters, which they DO NOT have now.
Here’s my point, and the point of this initial post: Tim Duncan is not the Tim Duncan of old! We MUST improve our roster with the MLE. Championship caliber or not, we need to change. In 2008, we had real problems scoring during the regular season, got into a street fight with the upstart Hornets and looked too old and tired against the Lakers in the WFC. In 2009, we essentially tried to enter the playoffs with the exact same tired team as 2008, with hopes for Roger Mason and a healthy Manu. Tim needs help, and Diop, Rasho or Gooden aint gonna cut it.
July 7th, 2009 at 2:20 am
I’ve read a lot of name here and there. Granted the Spurs spend the MidLevel for a big, there seem to be a consensus that they also need a (cheap) athletic wing. Haislip may be a part of that, but i wonder why Matt Barnes hasn’t come to the conversation.
Is it because there are too many possible wings? Or because I’m missing something with Barnes?
July 7th, 2009 at 5:30 am
Episode IV: Manu Hope —
It’s axiomatic that you can’t win the finals without getting there first. If the Spurs have a tougher road to even get to the finals than the Magic have (which I believe is the case, for the reasons stated by myself and others above), then it follows that the Spurs have less of a chance of winning the championship than the Magic, even though the Spurs may be the better team. It’s that simple.
And I agree with Graydon that Ryan Anderson is going to prove more valuable than most people realize. He doesn’t replace Hedo’s pick and roll ability (among other things), but he does give them a reliable outside shooter at the 4 position to leave things clear in the middle for Howard.
July 7th, 2009 at 6:40 am
[...] Room For Error [ 48 Minutes of Hell [...]
July 7th, 2009 at 6:53 am
TrueFan-
I will agree with you that a team has to get to the Finals to win the championship. The playoff schedule has not been released yet, but I am confident that the format will not see a great departure from years past.
The fact remains though: You can’t win the Finals without beating the other team that makes the Finals. If the Spurs have a 0% chance of beating the Lakers, as you suggest, and the Magic have a >0% chance of beating the Lakers… aren’t you obligated to say that the Magic are better than the Spurs?
The Lakers were tested more by the Rockets and (arguably) the Nuggets than by the Magic last year in the playoffs. If Yao hadn’t been injured, the Lakers could easily have lost in the second round. The idea that the Lakers are invulnerable until the Finals and then suddenly beatable doesn’t hold up.
July 7th, 2009 at 7:22 am
Timothy,
Why would the Spurs need to talk to Presti though? Wilcox is an unrestricted free agent after being traded to the Knicks. He hasn’t found a spot on their rotation, and they drafted a younger version of him in Jordan Hill. I agree with the aim-small, miss-small philosophy, Wilcox is a relatively medium risk, medium to large reward. I’m not necessarily saying throw the MLE at him, but I don’t agree with throwing it at either McDyess or Davis either. Unless there’s another glaring roster need, would it hurt to split the MLE between the two? Is McDyess really garnering full-MLE level attention? He’s a great player, just not one I’m entirely comfortable paying that much money for.
July 7th, 2009 at 7:24 am
Nevermind about the Presti question, read the post too quick.
July 7th, 2009 at 7:56 am
Episode IV: Manu Hope -
In the words of the great Paul Newman movie Cool Hand Luke: “What we have here…. is a failure… to communicate.”
I don’t want to beat this thing to death, but I just want to clarify that I’m not suggesting that the Spurs have a 0% chance of beating the Lakers. I’m saying that the Spurs’ chance of beating the Lakers seems smaller to me than Orlando’s chance of beating one or both of Cleveland and Boston to make it to the finals.
I know you think this focus on “making the finals” is misguided because it doesn’t seem to take into account the ultimate goal, which is, of course, to win the championship. I see making the finals as a separate, distinguishable, and necessary precondition to winning the championship. Of course, you also have to beat the other team that makes the finals (which is quite clearly where your focus is) in order to win the championship. I think you and I are just focusing on two different sides of what is ultimately the same coin.
But I’d also like to clarify that I am not suggesting “that the Lakers are invulnerable until the Finals and then suddenly beatable.” They are vulnerable all the time, quite frankly because they don’t have the overall toughness (including mental toughness) to utilize their superior talent on a consistent basis on both offense and defense.
The bottom line of my original comment to this great post is this: The longer you have to wait until your team plays the best team in the league, the better chance you have that somebody else will beat them first (your references above to the Rockets and Nuggets support this point). Therefore, if we’re handicapping chances of winning the finals, the fact that the Spurs (who are not as good as the Lakers, at least not yet) would play the Lakers earlier in the playoffs than Orlando in and of itself means that the Spurs have a lesser chance of winning the championship than Orlando UNLESS 1) Orlando has to go through equally tough (or tougher) opponents (I just don’t think that the aged Celtics or the Cavs fit that bill); and/or 2) Orlando is vastly superior to the Spurs to begin with (which I don’t hear anybody suggesting, although there may be a debate about which team is marginally superior).
July 7th, 2009 at 8:06 am
On ranking teams:
I think it is a safe assumption that Pop plays to win against bad teams and plays to investigate against good teams. The players obviously want to win, but Pop controls and lineups and schemes. Cleveland swept us in 2007 regular season to be crushed in the Finals by us in 4. Because of this, I put less emphasis on that Orlando season series. Did you think the Bucks were better than us last year?
Sometimes it is also about team match ups. Our weakness last season was our athleticism (especially in the front court) so teams like Portland and Orlando have natural advantages against us because that is where they excel. Just because you match up well against the Spurs does not mean you are the better team.
I’m not sure where we stand in the top 5, but I’m optimistic about RC adding the pieces we need so we can be legitimately optimistic in playoff match ups against any of those 4 other teams. Luckily, we only have to play 2 of them as a worst case scenario.
It is a shame that this last season’s playoffs were marred by Manu, KG, Yao, and Nelson being injured which makes even evaluating last years playoff head to heads difficult.
July 7th, 2009 at 8:11 am
For the past decade, most of the interest in the West has been building a team that can beat the Spurs. The Suns and Mavs both were seen as contenders with Dallas getting one year. Now, the focus is beating the Lakers. We can worry about Boston, Orlando, and Cleveland once we get to the Finals but we need to build a team that can match against LA. McDyess needs to be the MLE because Duncan needs games off during the season that McDyess can take care of Duncan’s role, at least for the night.
July 7th, 2009 at 8:13 am
Graydon/Tim:
This is a random thought, but is Austin Nichols too good for summer league play? He isn’t on our summer league roster but did he make someone else’s? Any status updates?
July 7th, 2009 at 8:40 am
Nice website. I’m a Lakers fan so probably not welcome here, but the Spurs have something that Boston, Cleveland, Orlando and most of the other wannabes do not: a great coach. Orlando will never win a title with its coach (Playoff experience doesn’t matter? Huh?), Boston has so much talent it won in spite of its coach (Let’s see how he handles Rasheed) and Cleveland has LeBron but its coach (who got the award only because of having the best won-loss record) likely cost the Cavaliers the Magic series. Los Angeles, obviously, has Jackson. The difference is that with Jackson the Lakers win the games the team should because of its talent; with Popovich the Spurs (and I’m not discounting the team’s talent, when everyone is healthy) win more than they should.
July 7th, 2009 at 9:19 am
TrueFan-
Quoting Cool Hand Luke is scoring some points for you, admittedly. I have a profound weakness for that movie.
I don’t think it is a stretch to say the Lakers are heavy favorites to take the top seed in the West. Likewise, I think most of us can agree that the Spurs are looking very good for either #2 or #3 barring any major surprises. If the Spurs have to play the Lakers in the playoffs, it will most likely be to go to the Finals.
Let’s assume that the Magic make it through the East. If the Lakers beat the Spurs, the Magic will have to deal with LA in the Finals anyway. If the Spurs can pull it out against the Lakers, we’d have a Spurs/Magic series. In this event, you’ve already said the Spurs are somewhat better and you’d have to like their chances.
So, if the Lakers are the issue, banking on them getting knocked out by somebody else either relies on the Spurs being seeded #4, 5 or 8 or commits you to playing the Spurs in the Finals.
Furthermore, I think we are sleeping on the Celtics here. This is a team that won the title two seasons ago. Last year, without their best player, they held a 3-2 lead against Orlando. Sure, they had some guys pick up part of the slack, but the Celts basically ran a 7-8 man rotation where Glenn “Potential Spurs Title Hopes Killer” Davis was playing about 30 minutes per game. They rounded out the rotation with Eddie “Dependable” House, Brian “Athletic For A Guy At Your YMCA” Scalabrine, and Stephon “I Am Still Paid To Play Basketball?” Marbury. Getting KG back and adding Sheed could bring this team back to dominance. Age is a concern, of course. Injuries are a bigger worry for them than most. But, if they are healthy at the end of the year, they are nearly as difficult to get by as the Lakers.
July 7th, 2009 at 9:25 am
Visiting here on a link from celticsblog.com. Just wanted to give the thoughts of an outside observer on the Spurs’ situation.
First, I don’t think Big Baby helps you guys that much. I actually would be more excited for Blair if I were in your shoes. That’s not because I want to keep Davis (though I’d be happy to). I think he helps us best in a sign and trade for a good perimeter player, since he’s probably a little too good and would be paid a little too much to be a 4th big, and wouldn’t get enough playing time here behind KG, Perk and Sheed. He has better trade value than Brian Scalabrine, an expiring contract who actually is a serviceable 4th or 5th big for us (plus I’d personally love for us to open up space to keep Leon Powe and hope he can come back to be a playoff X factor), and we need to bring in some better perimeter bench players via trade. I say he doesn’t fit for you because really, what you need is a starting center to round out your team, and you should use the MLE toward that - using it on Davis would end up being a wasted opportunity, as the original poster accurately stated. And I agree, you need to build toward beating the Lakers. One of the reasons we had to get another big guy (granted, Mikki Moore was a huge misfire) was that Pau Gasol absolutely abused Glen Davis in regular season games. Davis hustles and tries and is lovable (you can’t beat the pictures of him during games that make him look like a cartoon character) but he is just too small to defend tall, lean, quick players. Gasol just passes over Davis’s head at will. You need a big guy to front Bynum so you can use Duncan on Gasol.
Second, as for missed options - did you guys go after Gortat or Wallace? I thought both would have been perfect for you. I actually thought a month ago that Wallace would end up in SA or Cleveland since those teams, unlike the Celtics, would be able to offer him a starting spot and the same money. As for Gortat, I just thought it made perfect sense. At worst, he’s a big, fairly mobile body to reduce the pounding on Duncan and Bonner can sub for either guy as a change of pace big with Blair as a solid 4th for rebounding. At best, Gortat becomes one of the better starting centers out there. I was really surprised that Dallas, but not you guys, went after him.
Third, with what’s left out there, I tend to agree that McDyess is the best option. He’ll probably cost less money - meaning you can get him and another guy - and he can start at center. He can rebound inside, but can also go out to 17 feet and clear space for Duncan. Lee would be a great addition too, but I don’t know if he’d sign an offer sheet at the MLE. I just don’t think he’d want to see New York match and then be stuck there on a relatively low contract for 5 years. Maybe he’d sign one for 2 years, though, and take the risk that NY won’t want to lose their 2010 cap space (if they match, Lee makes $11.5 mil over the next two years instead of $2 this year under a QO). It’s worth a risk. Pachulia could be a solid restricted FA target too. I just think all three of those guys could start next to Duncan while Davis really isn’t ideal for that role.
Fourth, on your position relative to the rest of the league - I tend to agree the Celtics and Lakers are presently on top, but I think you’re right there in the thick of it with Orlando and Cleveland, and it comes down to the remaining moves - all three of you have your MLEs intact. You just need to use it better than they do. If you can pick up McDyess, Lee or Pachulia, I think you get an edge. A starting five of Parker, Mason, Jefferson, Duncan and one of those three, with Manu, Bonner, Finley, Hill, Blair and Udoka (you still have him, yeah?) off the bench is one of the better rotations in the league. I personally think the Spurs are the biggest threat to another Lakers-Celtics Final, depending on what moves are still to be made.
Fifth, I’m pulling for you. One of my biggest disappointments this year (beyond KG’s injury killing our title hopes) was having to watch (actually, I didn’t watch, I lost interest in the series as Orlando continued to mangle it) Kobe receive the first ever Bill Russell Award. One of the most selfish, me-first (albeit great) players in the history of the NBA accepting an award named after the most selfless, team-first player and winner in the history of the NBA. Next season, as much as I’d like to see the Celtics destroy the Lakers in the Finals, I’d also love to see the Bill Russell Award go to one of the two players - Duncan and Garnett - who truly define all the things that made Russell the greatest winner in the game - teamwork, defense, mental toughness and intelligence. So I’d really love to see a drag-down barroom brawl between the Celtics and Spurs to decide the 2010 Finals. Best of luck to you guys.
July 7th, 2009 at 9:34 am
And by the way, for the earlier comments on Perkins - we in Boston have heard nothing about dissatisfaction with Perk. He was actually a big bright spot for us in the playoffs. Everybody is of the opinion that he will start and Rasheed will come off the bench so he can spot minutes at both the 4 and the 5. Rasheed will finish a lot of games because of his experience, lower foul rate, and more polished offensive games, but we are far from unhappy with Perkins, who’s also on a very reasonable contract for two more seasons.
And if we were interested in dealing him, it wouldn’t be for a package including Davis, a guy who we could just match an offer for.
July 7th, 2009 at 9:50 am
Back to the Orlando issue for a second.
We’ve talked about what both the Spurs and Magic have gained and lost so far this off-season, but it seems like we’re basically looking at the offensive stats. Let’s consider what’s changed on the defensive side.
Keep in mind that Manu is one of our best defenders as well as being our best all-around offensive player, and RJ is no slouch on D, either. I think part of the reason why our front-court looked older and slower on D last year was that we didn’t have a single good defender on the wing to limit penetration when we had Finley and Mason on the court at the same time. Assuming Manu is healthy again, our D should be much closer to what it has been in our peek years again.
Orlando just lost one of its better team defenders in Turkoglu, one of its best one-on-one perimeter defenders in Lee, and a pretty solid front-court defender in Gortat (if he goes to Dallas). Tony Battie also gave them quality minutes on the defensive side, and Alston was respectable on D, too. None of the additions — Nelson, Carter, and Anderson — are even average defenders.
I agree with Graydon’s point that the Magic had a higher baseline going into the off-season, but I think when you’ve considered the defensive side of the equation, they’ve lost quite a bit. I don’t know that we’ve caught up to them yet, but I’m not sure we have that much more ground to make up at this point.
July 7th, 2009 at 11:56 am
Sorry, I meant Glen “Just One ‘N’ In My First Name” Davis. I was thinking of the 1980′s baseball player (who was only slightly worse at rebounding, similar PER).
July 7th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
Everyone is trying to rank those top teams, and it really isn’t worth it unless one of them is heads and shoulders above the rest. Also, “last year” isn’t a reliable measuring stick. “Last year” never has been reliable in sports. Also still, the regular season doesn’t mean a whole lot when evaluating the better teams. Some teams are much better built for the regular season, and will most likely earn top seeds. (past Mavs and Suns, current Lakers, last year Cavs, last year Magic)
The top teams are too close to call a series now, and probably won’t be figured out til the end of next year. Changed and new teams usually produce inflated results until some team figures out a good defensive strategy. (Spurs would’ve been killed by the Hornets in 08 if they didn’t take Bowen off Paul and concentrate on shutting down Peja.)
The top teams are close enough that obvious mis-matches aren’t enough to pick the series ahead of time. The winner of top contenders will come down to reactions, and the kinds of mis-matches that develop over the course of a 7 game series. If Spurs and Pistons in 07 played that series twn times I have no idea how many times each would win. I have no idea which team was “better”. I do know Spurs won the series. The Magic are mentioned the most because they are the ones that are most susceptible to all other contenders in a 7 game series.
First off, they wouldv’e been killed by a healthy Boston and Boston got better. They barely squeaked by the Sixers, and barely squeaked by Cavs who also got better. Forgetting how much better or worse people got, the Magic’s fundamental problem is still the same and its a doozy. They are a team built on the jump shot. They only managed to beat the Lakers shooting a historical percentage. They have no front court scoring option. Dwight will get better, but better isn’t enough for that guy to be an offensive threat. 7 game series tend to take care of teams that play the shooting percentage just by letting time do its thing statistically. The odds that Magic make it through a healthy East are pretty low. Not to mention, Dwight tended to foul out of a lot of games and his backup (who is gone) was needed desperately. The Magic benefited more than any other team last year because of league infjuries, and still barely made it. They were hoping not to pull a match up with the Pistons. Really? Saying they got better is a stretch, they barely squeaked by as it was, every other contender in their conference got better, and they rely on the jumper.
July 7th, 2009 at 6:52 pm
Gotta agree that San An has better title hopes than Orlando. Count me as not sold on the Artest trade. I think it was the good Dr. Nasmith who said, “you can’t run the triangle offense with an inefficient chucker stealing shots from your skilled center.”
July 7th, 2009 at 9:36 pm
Hi spurs fans,
I’m a huge lakers fan and have been checking out the other major team’s blogs (celtics/magic/cle/etc). I usually do not do this stuff in the offseason, but i’m still so pumped over this last year’s playoffs that i still need my daily fix. In any event, just to give a compliment to you guys, this board seems to be the most logical/realistic and thus classy board out of all of them. It’s a great read.
I get tired of all those —we got Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson, this makes us the best team in NBA history ( i actually read that on a Magic board and the guy was being serious).
Anyway, I think that the Spurs will be deadly next year. You need some ATHLETIC role players in my opinion. Ariza type of players. Posey type of players, etc. Also, it all depends on Ginobli. From what i’ve seen of Duncun, he is still a class act but has lost some of his ability. I’m not sure of Ginobli though. If he regains his health will he be as good as before? And will he regain his health?
RJ is a very good player, but unfortunately for you guys he is a volume shooter. He needs his shots to be effective. I don’t think this will be a good fit for the spurs. In my mind Ginobli is the key. With him back, and the addition of RJ, you guys will be good enough to compete. However, the lakers are still the better team.
Mcdysse is a great player. Take him if you can get him. His mid-range jumper is deadly.
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