No Room for Error

by

After rumors surfaced yesterday evening that the Spurs are potentially interested in Glen Davis, I came to an anxiety-induced realization: In the 2009 offseason arms race, there is no room for error.

Just to be clear, I don’t believe the Spurs are going to sign Davis: In DeJuan Blair we already have a stronger, longer, and I believe fundamentally more talented version of Davis. The rumor is probably just an attempt by Davis’ agent to net his client a larger contract. If a team as savvy as the Spurs is interested, shouldn’t you be too?

That being said, in some people’s opinion, acquiring Davis would not be a disaster. But at this point, the Spurs aren’t trying to avoid disasters: We are trying to build a championship roster. If we spend a significant percentage of our MLE on a player who can’t rebound and can’t defend elite big men, we will be a significant step behind next season’s contenders.

At this point, five organizations have fully committed themselves to the 2010 title hunt: Boston, Cleveland, Los Angeles, Orlando, and San Antonio. On the edge of this group lurks Portland, who still has the financial flexibility to acquire a player that takes them to the next level (although the amount of players who have the talent to do so is rapidly growing smaller). Despite the moves we’ve already made this offseason, I still think the Spurs, as currently composed, are only the 5th best team in the league.

Consider that. This roster, which is probably the most talented roster we have had since 2006, is still surpassed by 4 other franchises. That’s why this Davis rumor is so much more severe than it may appear. Davis is a fine player: a relatively average role player who can be relied upon to hit big shots in big games. A team could do worse. But at this point, the Spurs have specific needs, needs that must be met if we intend to win a fifth ring. And Davis, however likeable he may be, does not fulfill those needs.

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  • sydneylla

    Tim-

    Humor my free agent fantasies for a moment. If we were to sign McDyess for the MLE (as I argued agressively for above), would we still have anything left to reasonably sign the likes of Rasho? Or did the Haislip BAE signing make that a non-starter?
    In an ideal but still-fathomable world, I see him as a servicable backup at the 4 or 5, especially since his Spurs system reaquantanceship period would be near nil. I realize that even if it could be done, there might not be enough roster spots for everyone. But I’m curious about the financial feasibility. Could it even be done?

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    Sydeylla,

    Non-starter. Once our MLE is used up, we’re stuck. At that point we’re left with minimum contracts (summer league and/or training camp), rookie contracts and trades.

    The Spurs don’t have to use all of their MLE on one player. Theoretically, they could sign McDyess for 4 million and leave some change in case they want to chase a late season addition such as they did with Drew Gooden last year. But McDyess will probably ask for a receive the full MLE. The full MLE will come in at 5.8, or so.

    As things currently stand, the Spurs will have the expiring contracts of Matt Bonner and Mike Finley to use in February if they need to trade for another player.

  • Robby

    Tim,

    I hope the Spurs won’t just use the full MLE on one Player. They have pretty good bigs already… in TD, Haislip, Blair, Gist and Mahinmi. (but the mostly not proven, i’m hoping that Haislip, Blair, Gist and Mahinmi won’t be busts so i’m keeping my fingers crossed)

    about a possible trade, i think Finley has a bird right so he can refuse a trade correct?

  • drew

    Tim,

    thanks for the clarification. i was unaware that the BAE was how the Spurs signed Haislip.

    now all hopes for getting Splitter this year are pretty much off, correct? if he can get a lot more next year, then there’s no reason he’d come over now.

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Graydon Gordian

    To all those who think we are better than the Magic,

    I definitely think you have a point. The Spurs have improved this offseason, and I agree that, with the loss of Hedo and Gortat, the Magic have gotten slightly worse (even with the acquisition of Carter).

    But I still believe Orlando is better than SA, or for conservative reasons, I will continue to argue so for the time being.

    First and foremost, just because the Spurs got better and the Magic got worse does not mean the Spurs got better than the Magic. The Spurs lost in 5 games in the first round; the Magic made it to the Finals. It would take a significant amount of improvement for a first-rounder to overtake a team that made it to the Finals. I am optimistic; I don’t know if I am that optimistic.

    And, as I said, I agree that the Magic will regret losing both Turkoglu and Gortat. But, it is not as if the rest of the team will remain stagnant. Both Jameer Nelson and Dwight Howard will continue to improve this season. Remember that we haven’t seen the Magic with a fully healthy Jameer Nelson since January, when the Magic were playing very well.

    Although it is factually accurate to say they lost Gortat, Lee, and Turkoglu but only gained Carter, in a sense the Magic we saw during the postseason gained Carter and Nelson. Even though Nelson saw court time during the Finals, we was not the All-Star caliber player we saw during the first half of the season.

    I also think people are underestimating the importance of Ryan Anderson, who is the hidden gem in the Carter trade. Anderson is a promising young PF, and will contribute meaningful minutes for Orlando this season.

    A starting 5 of Jameer Nelson, Vince Carter, Rashard Lewis, Dwight Howard and either Ryan Anderson or a currently unsigned FA big is a very dangerous lineup.

    And last season, during Orlando’s regular season sweep of the Spurs, it wasn’t Hedo or Gortat who gave us problems: It was Nelson and Howard. Those problems still remain.

    I definitely think you can make an argument either way but, instinctively, I tend to favor the team that performed better the previous season.

  • examiner.com/spurs

    What I am saying is that teams don’t “upset” their way to the NBA Title. A.I.’s Sixers and Lebron’s Cavs that lost in an NBA Finals is about the closest thing in recent memory.

    They each had a superstar talent, but if you really follow the game you know this – It takes more than one Superstar to win the title.

    Generally, only a select group of teams has a realistic shot at a championship and when the Spurs won theirs – they were at or near the top in terms of talent alone.

    The product San Antonio plans to put on the floor this season, is in that elite group. As I said, it won’t be easy – but if your team does not reside in SA, LA, Cleveland, Orlando or Boston – you have no chance at winning a championship.

  • Episode IV: Manu Hope

    Various fans-

    We’re not talking about which team has a better chance to make the Finals. We’re talking about which team has a better chance to win a championship. If you are going to use the reasoning that “anything can happen” in the Finals, it seems that you would have to extend that argument to every other series.

    If you are willing to install the Lakers as prohibitive favorites in the West, they should be just as stacked for the Finals.

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    Robby,

    My understanding is that Finley has a right of refusal. So yes, you’re correct.

    The rules for this are kind of funny, as it sounds like you know. But for our other readers…basically, Finley gets a right of refusal because he’s playing on an expiring contract (with forthcoming Bird rights) and has been with the Spurs for four seasons. If he consents to a trade, he becomes Non-Bird free agent.

    It’s not a small thing. Devean George blew up the first Mavs-Nets Harris/Kidd trade by invoking his right of refusal.

    That’s how I remember it, at least.

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    Drew,

    Well, we’re half-guessing on Haislip. But reports are that he signed a guaranteed contract worth the exact amount of the bi-annual. We call horses with stripes zebras.

    He’s also a stud in Europe. No way he comes back to the NBA for anything less than guaranteed money.

    About Splitter: if the Spurs sign McDyess, then yes, Splitter is a goner until at least next season.

    However, there is some inducement for him to come now, if, in fact, Baskonia would accept a buyout. That inducement is an opportunity to start the clock on his second NBA contract. The second contract is the big one, and if he plays it right, he’ll still be young enough to warrant a sizable third deal or hefty extension. Age is an extremely important consideration when judging contract worth.

    Put differently, Splitter is 24. If he signs a 3 year deal prior to this season, he’ll be approaching his prime for his second deal, and should get a big pay day. Let’s say he goes with a standard 5 year with an ETO after year 4. That means he can get a last big deal while still in his young 30s. Personally, if not for his sister’s health, I would advised him to make the move last season simply to start the clock. But he’s still young enough.

    Right now, he could have contracts at 24, 27, and an extension at 31. And then think about McDyess and Wallace. That forth contract, even in your mid-30s, can be nice retirement money. The longer Splitter waits…

  • Robby

    Thanks Tim for further clarification of the Finley situation, that’s how I remember it too… now lets get that BIG to play along with TD…

  • ThatBigGuy

    Graydon:

    Did you forget that we are gaining Manu as well? Doesn’t that warrant a move ahead of Orlando? You can’t say Orlando improves because they get Carter AND Nelson, and then not give the Spurs the same concession with the return of Manu. I think Orlando peaked and will slide from here on out unless Howard completely overhauls his offensive game and becomes a first option scorer. And honestly, after 2 years of personal tutelage under Ewing, if Dwight only has half a right jump hook now, he’s never going to have anything more than that. Orlando is only as good as Howard, and I think Howard has peaked.

    Also, you can’t use the “they made it to the Finals and we got bounced in the first round” line either. We were missing our second best player and our best player was hurt. We ran into a tough matchup in Dallas, while Orlando’s toughest test was beating LeBron 5 on 2.5. We’ve already beat LeBron.

    My top 5:
    LA
    Boston
    SA
    Orlando
    Cleveland

    Cleveland didn’t get any better with Shaq. He’s going to clog up the lane so much for Lebron, causing 2 scenarios: LeBron is going to get pissed at running into Shaq’s back on every drive and force a trade or something, or LeBron will just turn into a jumpshooter. Big Z may have been soft, but at least he could hit the corner 3 and stretch the floor to allow LeBron to attack the rim.

    Boston looks to be the best in the east, assuming Garnett is healthy. I put the Spurs after them because they have won a title more recently with the same lineup, plus they have the added bonus Sheed signing, which improves them on paper.

    The Lakers are the current champs, and will remain the favorite until they lose in the playoffs, whenever that may be.

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Graydon Gordian

    ThatBigGuy,

    I think you are absolutely right to point out the addition of Manu. The same principle I applied to Nelson applies to Ginobili. Fair point.

    But, in both of our losses to Orlando last season, Manu was healthy and on the court.

    Also, Howard is only 23 years old. I don’t think it is fair to say he has peaked.

    “Orlando’s toughest test was beating LeBron 5 on 2.5. We’ve already beat LeBron.”

    The 2007 version of the Spurs beat the Cavs. Last season’s Magic beat a much better version of the Cavs. How does that favor the Spurs? In my mind, the Magic beat a much better team, and did so with a squad that, at least temporally, remains more closely related to its current manifestation.

  • Robby

    ThatBigGuy,

    You have certainly have a point…

    but i think there are reasons why Graydon thinks Orlando is still better than the Spurs

    What to hope for

    1. Manu’s comeback should definitely not be
    ignored, but he’s coming back from injury and
    we don’t know how good and better he is right
    now (but i’m hoping he will return strong like
    Manu of ’05)

    2. We get RJ, that move really gives us a boosts in
    the wing spot. We think he’s a right fit but then
    again we still don’t know on how it will play
    out (we hope for the best of course!)

    3. We haven’t use our MLE so there’s hope here to
    improve our roster.

    4. Let’s See how things plays out after the summer
    league, by that time have a better grasps on
    who’s gonna make the team… lets keep our eyes
    on guys like Gist and Hairston

    5. George Hills development, with one year under
    his belt he might be a better player for the spurs.

    NOT sure yet

    1. We drafted Blair/McClinton about to sign
    Haislip, if we get lucky these guys will be the
    last pieces of the championship puzzle.
    (Blair for his rebounding, McClinton for his
    sharpshooting skills and Haislip for his athletic
    abilities.)

    * We still don’t know how will their games
    translate to the NBA, Haislip in particular
    struggled on his early years in the NBA but from
    what i’ve heard he improve alot (we hope!)
    (also lets cross our fingers on Blair knees!)

    2. Mahinmi’s comeback…. we don’t know what to
    expect from him yet and again he’s coming
    from an injury.

    3. Duncans health: Tim’s gotten a little older and
    he has a knee injury last season so lets hope he
    gets real healthy.

    4. Backup wing needs a little more work (Finley
    might not get the job done)

    5. Consistent outside shooting, during the early
    part of the last season Mason Jr. and Bonner fill
    this roles nicely…. however as the season
    progress and in to the playoffs they kind a M.I.A

    We have alot of reasons to be optimistics for our SPURS this upcoming season… but i say this, lets wait ’till we have the final roster, and wait some more, maybe 15-25 games into the season, then we might have a better claim on where we stand in NBA. Go Spurs Go!

  • El Jefe

    Im wondering if the spurs can just save thier MLE for a trade during the season?

    Also, is Marion completly off thier rader.

    And will someone tell me exactly how Drew Gooden pissed Pop off so bad that hes not really on the radar?

  • ChillFAN

    Michael, I appreciate the clarification. The Spurs did not UPSET their way to four championships, because in those years they had championship-caliber rosters, which they DO NOT have now.

    Here’s my point, and the point of this initial post: Tim Duncan is not the Tim Duncan of old! We MUST improve our roster with the MLE. Championship caliber or not, we need to change. In 2008, we had real problems scoring during the regular season, got into a street fight with the upstart Hornets and looked too old and tired against the Lakers in the WFC. In 2009, we essentially tried to enter the playoffs with the exact same tired team as 2008, with hopes for Roger Mason and a healthy Manu. Tim needs help, and Diop, Rasho or Gooden aint gonna cut it.

  • buns

    I’ve read a lot of name here and there. Granted the Spurs spend the MidLevel for a big, there seem to be a consensus that they also need a (cheap) athletic wing. Haislip may be a part of that, but i wonder why Matt Barnes hasn’t come to the conversation.
    Is it because there are too many possible wings? Or because I’m missing something with Barnes?

  • TrueFan

    Episode IV: Manu Hope —

    It’s axiomatic that you can’t win the finals without getting there first. If the Spurs have a tougher road to even get to the finals than the Magic have (which I believe is the case, for the reasons stated by myself and others above), then it follows that the Spurs have less of a chance of winning the championship than the Magic, even though the Spurs may be the better team. It’s that simple.

    And I agree with Graydon that Ryan Anderson is going to prove more valuable than most people realize. He doesn’t replace Hedo’s pick and roll ability (among other things), but he does give them a reliable outside shooter at the 4 position to leave things clear in the middle for Howard.

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  • Episode IV: Manu Hope

    TrueFan-

    I will agree with you that a team has to get to the Finals to win the championship. The playoff schedule has not been released yet, but I am confident that the format will not see a great departure from years past.

    The fact remains though: You can’t win the Finals without beating the other team that makes the Finals. If the Spurs have a 0% chance of beating the Lakers, as you suggest, and the Magic have a >0% chance of beating the Lakers… aren’t you obligated to say that the Magic are better than the Spurs?

    The Lakers were tested more by the Rockets and (arguably) the Nuggets than by the Magic last year in the playoffs. If Yao hadn’t been injured, the Lakers could easily have lost in the second round. The idea that the Lakers are invulnerable until the Finals and then suddenly beatable doesn’t hold up.

  • http://fundamentally-sound.blogspot.com Jaceman

    Timothy,

    Why would the Spurs need to talk to Presti though? Wilcox is an unrestricted free agent after being traded to the Knicks. He hasn’t found a spot on their rotation, and they drafted a younger version of him in Jordan Hill. I agree with the aim-small, miss-small philosophy, Wilcox is a relatively medium risk, medium to large reward. I’m not necessarily saying throw the MLE at him, but I don’t agree with throwing it at either McDyess or Davis either. Unless there’s another glaring roster need, would it hurt to split the MLE between the two? Is McDyess really garnering full-MLE level attention? He’s a great player, just not one I’m entirely comfortable paying that much money for.

  • http://fundamentally-sound.blogspot.com Jaceman

    Nevermind about the Presti question, read the post too quick.

  • TrueFan

    Episode IV: Manu Hope –

    In the words of the great Paul Newman movie Cool Hand Luke: “What we have here…. is a failure… to communicate.”

    I don’t want to beat this thing to death, but I just want to clarify that I’m not suggesting that the Spurs have a 0% chance of beating the Lakers. I’m saying that the Spurs’ chance of beating the Lakers seems smaller to me than Orlando’s chance of beating one or both of Cleveland and Boston to make it to the finals.

    I know you think this focus on “making the finals” is misguided because it doesn’t seem to take into account the ultimate goal, which is, of course, to win the championship. I see making the finals as a separate, distinguishable, and necessary precondition to winning the championship. Of course, you also have to beat the other team that makes the finals (which is quite clearly where your focus is) in order to win the championship. I think you and I are just focusing on two different sides of what is ultimately the same coin.

    But I’d also like to clarify that I am not suggesting “that the Lakers are invulnerable until the Finals and then suddenly beatable.” They are vulnerable all the time, quite frankly because they don’t have the overall toughness (including mental toughness) to utilize their superior talent on a consistent basis on both offense and defense.

    The bottom line of my original comment to this great post is this: The longer you have to wait until your team plays the best team in the league, the better chance you have that somebody else will beat them first (your references above to the Rockets and Nuggets support this point). Therefore, if we’re handicapping chances of winning the finals, the fact that the Spurs (who are not as good as the Lakers, at least not yet) would play the Lakers earlier in the playoffs than Orlando in and of itself means that the Spurs have a lesser chance of winning the championship than Orlando UNLESS 1) Orlando has to go through equally tough (or tougher) opponents (I just don’t think that the aged Celtics or the Cavs fit that bill); and/or 2) Orlando is vastly superior to the Spurs to begin with (which I don’t hear anybody suggesting, although there may be a debate about which team is marginally superior).

  • BlaseE

    On ranking teams:

    I think it is a safe assumption that Pop plays to win against bad teams and plays to investigate against good teams. The players obviously want to win, but Pop controls and lineups and schemes. Cleveland swept us in 2007 regular season to be crushed in the Finals by us in 4. Because of this, I put less emphasis on that Orlando season series. Did you think the Bucks were better than us last year?

    Sometimes it is also about team match ups. Our weakness last season was our athleticism (especially in the front court) so teams like Portland and Orlando have natural advantages against us because that is where they excel. Just because you match up well against the Spurs does not mean you are the better team.

    I’m not sure where we stand in the top 5, but I’m optimistic about RC adding the pieces we need so we can be legitimately optimistic in playoff match ups against any of those 4 other teams. Luckily, we only have to play 2 of them as a worst case scenario.

    It is a shame that this last season’s playoffs were marred by Manu, KG, Yao, and Nelson being injured which makes even evaluating last years playoff head to heads difficult.

  • idahospur

    For the past decade, most of the interest in the West has been building a team that can beat the Spurs. The Suns and Mavs both were seen as contenders with Dallas getting one year. Now, the focus is beating the Lakers. We can worry about Boston, Orlando, and Cleveland once we get to the Finals but we need to build a team that can match against LA. McDyess needs to be the MLE because Duncan needs games off during the season that McDyess can take care of Duncan’s role, at least for the night.

  • BlaseE

    Graydon/Tim:

    This is a random thought, but is Austin Nichols too good for summer league play? He isn’t on our summer league roster but did he make someone else’s? Any status updates?

  • iamjustjack

    Nice website. I’m a Lakers fan so probably not welcome here, but the Spurs have something that Boston, Cleveland, Orlando and most of the other wannabes do not: a great coach. Orlando will never win a title with its coach (Playoff experience doesn’t matter? Huh?), Boston has so much talent it won in spite of its coach (Let’s see how he handles Rasheed) and Cleveland has LeBron but its coach (who got the award only because of having the best won-loss record) likely cost the Cavaliers the Magic series. Los Angeles, obviously, has Jackson. The difference is that with Jackson the Lakers win the games the team should because of its talent; with Popovich the Spurs (and I’m not discounting the team’s talent, when everyone is healthy) win more than they should.

  • Episode IV: Manu Hope

    TrueFan-

    Quoting Cool Hand Luke is scoring some points for you, admittedly. I have a profound weakness for that movie.

    I don’t think it is a stretch to say the Lakers are heavy favorites to take the top seed in the West. Likewise, I think most of us can agree that the Spurs are looking very good for either #2 or #3 barring any major surprises. If the Spurs have to play the Lakers in the playoffs, it will most likely be to go to the Finals.

    Let’s assume that the Magic make it through the East. If the Lakers beat the Spurs, the Magic will have to deal with LA in the Finals anyway. If the Spurs can pull it out against the Lakers, we’d have a Spurs/Magic series. In this event, you’ve already said the Spurs are somewhat better and you’d have to like their chances.

    So, if the Lakers are the issue, banking on them getting knocked out by somebody else either relies on the Spurs being seeded #4, 5 or 8 or commits you to playing the Spurs in the Finals.

    Furthermore, I think we are sleeping on the Celtics here. This is a team that won the title two seasons ago. Last year, without their best player, they held a 3-2 lead against Orlando. Sure, they had some guys pick up part of the slack, but the Celts basically ran a 7-8 man rotation where Glenn “Potential Spurs Title Hopes Killer” Davis was playing about 30 minutes per game. They rounded out the rotation with Eddie “Dependable” House, Brian “Athletic For A Guy At Your YMCA” Scalabrine, and Stephon “I Am Still Paid To Play Basketball?” Marbury. Getting KG back and adding Sheed could bring this team back to dominance. Age is a concern, of course. Injuries are a bigger worry for them than most. But, if they are healthy at the end of the year, they are nearly as difficult to get by as the Lakers.

  • Paintitgreen

    Visiting here on a link from celticsblog.com. Just wanted to give the thoughts of an outside observer on the Spurs’ situation.

    First, I don’t think Big Baby helps you guys that much. I actually would be more excited for Blair if I were in your shoes. That’s not because I want to keep Davis (though I’d be happy to). I think he helps us best in a sign and trade for a good perimeter player, since he’s probably a little too good and would be paid a little too much to be a 4th big, and wouldn’t get enough playing time here behind KG, Perk and Sheed. He has better trade value than Brian Scalabrine, an expiring contract who actually is a serviceable 4th or 5th big for us (plus I’d personally love for us to open up space to keep Leon Powe and hope he can come back to be a playoff X factor), and we need to bring in some better perimeter bench players via trade. I say he doesn’t fit for you because really, what you need is a starting center to round out your team, and you should use the MLE toward that – using it on Davis would end up being a wasted opportunity, as the original poster accurately stated. And I agree, you need to build toward beating the Lakers. One of the reasons we had to get another big guy (granted, Mikki Moore was a huge misfire) was that Pau Gasol absolutely abused Glen Davis in regular season games. Davis hustles and tries and is lovable (you can’t beat the pictures of him during games that make him look like a cartoon character) but he is just too small to defend tall, lean, quick players. Gasol just passes over Davis’s head at will. You need a big guy to front Bynum so you can use Duncan on Gasol.

    Second, as for missed options – did you guys go after Gortat or Wallace? I thought both would have been perfect for you. I actually thought a month ago that Wallace would end up in SA or Cleveland since those teams, unlike the Celtics, would be able to offer him a starting spot and the same money. As for Gortat, I just thought it made perfect sense. At worst, he’s a big, fairly mobile body to reduce the pounding on Duncan and Bonner can sub for either guy as a change of pace big with Blair as a solid 4th for rebounding. At best, Gortat becomes one of the better starting centers out there. I was really surprised that Dallas, but not you guys, went after him.

    Third, with what’s left out there, I tend to agree that McDyess is the best option. He’ll probably cost less money – meaning you can get him and another guy – and he can start at center. He can rebound inside, but can also go out to 17 feet and clear space for Duncan. Lee would be a great addition too, but I don’t know if he’d sign an offer sheet at the MLE. I just don’t think he’d want to see New York match and then be stuck there on a relatively low contract for 5 years. Maybe he’d sign one for 2 years, though, and take the risk that NY won’t want to lose their 2010 cap space (if they match, Lee makes $11.5 mil over the next two years instead of $2 this year under a QO). It’s worth a risk. Pachulia could be a solid restricted FA target too. I just think all three of those guys could start next to Duncan while Davis really isn’t ideal for that role.

    Fourth, on your position relative to the rest of the league – I tend to agree the Celtics and Lakers are presently on top, but I think you’re right there in the thick of it with Orlando and Cleveland, and it comes down to the remaining moves – all three of you have your MLEs intact. You just need to use it better than they do. If you can pick up McDyess, Lee or Pachulia, I think you get an edge. A starting five of Parker, Mason, Jefferson, Duncan and one of those three, with Manu, Bonner, Finley, Hill, Blair and Udoka (you still have him, yeah?) off the bench is one of the better rotations in the league. I personally think the Spurs are the biggest threat to another Lakers-Celtics Final, depending on what moves are still to be made.

    Fifth, I’m pulling for you. One of my biggest disappointments this year (beyond KG’s injury killing our title hopes) was having to watch (actually, I didn’t watch, I lost interest in the series as Orlando continued to mangle it) Kobe receive the first ever Bill Russell Award. One of the most selfish, me-first (albeit great) players in the history of the NBA accepting an award named after the most selfless, team-first player and winner in the history of the NBA. Next season, as much as I’d like to see the Celtics destroy the Lakers in the Finals, I’d also love to see the Bill Russell Award go to one of the two players – Duncan and Garnett – who truly define all the things that made Russell the greatest winner in the game – teamwork, defense, mental toughness and intelligence. So I’d really love to see a drag-down barroom brawl between the Celtics and Spurs to decide the 2010 Finals. Best of luck to you guys.

  • Paintitgreen

    And by the way, for the earlier comments on Perkins – we in Boston have heard nothing about dissatisfaction with Perk. He was actually a big bright spot for us in the playoffs. Everybody is of the opinion that he will start and Rasheed will come off the bench so he can spot minutes at both the 4 and the 5. Rasheed will finish a lot of games because of his experience, lower foul rate, and more polished offensive games, but we are far from unhappy with Perkins, who’s also on a very reasonable contract for two more seasons.

    And if we were interested in dealing him, it wouldn’t be for a package including Davis, a guy who we could just match an offer for.

  • Joe

    Back to the Orlando issue for a second.

    We’ve talked about what both the Spurs and Magic have gained and lost so far this off-season, but it seems like we’re basically looking at the offensive stats. Let’s consider what’s changed on the defensive side.

    Keep in mind that Manu is one of our best defenders as well as being our best all-around offensive player, and RJ is no slouch on D, either. I think part of the reason why our front-court looked older and slower on D last year was that we didn’t have a single good defender on the wing to limit penetration when we had Finley and Mason on the court at the same time. Assuming Manu is healthy again, our D should be much closer to what it has been in our peek years again.

    Orlando just lost one of its better team defenders in Turkoglu, one of its best one-on-one perimeter defenders in Lee, and a pretty solid front-court defender in Gortat (if he goes to Dallas). Tony Battie also gave them quality minutes on the defensive side, and Alston was respectable on D, too. None of the additions — Nelson, Carter, and Anderson — are even average defenders.

    I agree with Graydon’s point that the Magic had a higher baseline going into the off-season, but I think when you’ve considered the defensive side of the equation, they’ve lost quite a bit. I don’t know that we’ve caught up to them yet, but I’m not sure we have that much more ground to make up at this point.

  • Episode IV: Manu Hope

    Sorry, I meant Glen “Just One ‘N’ In My First Name” Davis. I was thinking of the 1980′s baseball player (who was only slightly worse at rebounding, similar PER).

  • chi living spurs fan

    Everyone is trying to rank those top teams, and it really isn’t worth it unless one of them is heads and shoulders above the rest. Also, “last year” isn’t a reliable measuring stick. “Last year” never has been reliable in sports. Also still, the regular season doesn’t mean a whole lot when evaluating the better teams. Some teams are much better built for the regular season, and will most likely earn top seeds. (past Mavs and Suns, current Lakers, last year Cavs, last year Magic)

    The top teams are too close to call a series now, and probably won’t be figured out til the end of next year. Changed and new teams usually produce inflated results until some team figures out a good defensive strategy. (Spurs would’ve been killed by the Hornets in 08 if they didn’t take Bowen off Paul and concentrate on shutting down Peja.)

    The top teams are close enough that obvious mis-matches aren’t enough to pick the series ahead of time. The winner of top contenders will come down to reactions, and the kinds of mis-matches that develop over the course of a 7 game series. If Spurs and Pistons in 07 played that series twn times I have no idea how many times each would win. I have no idea which team was “better”. I do know Spurs won the series. The Magic are mentioned the most because they are the ones that are most susceptible to all other contenders in a 7 game series.

    First off, they wouldv’e been killed by a healthy Boston and Boston got better. They barely squeaked by the Sixers, and barely squeaked by Cavs who also got better. Forgetting how much better or worse people got, the Magic’s fundamental problem is still the same and its a doozy. They are a team built on the jump shot. They only managed to beat the Lakers shooting a historical percentage. They have no front court scoring option. Dwight will get better, but better isn’t enough for that guy to be an offensive threat. 7 game series tend to take care of teams that play the shooting percentage just by letting time do its thing statistically. The odds that Magic make it through a healthy East are pretty low. Not to mention, Dwight tended to foul out of a lot of games and his backup (who is gone) was needed desperately. The Magic benefited more than any other team last year because of league infjuries, and still barely made it. They were hoping not to pull a match up with the Pistons. Really? Saying they got better is a stretch, they barely squeaked by as it was, every other contender in their conference got better, and they rely on the jumper.

  • ruth bader ginobili

    Gotta agree that San An has better title hopes than Orlando. Count me as not sold on the Artest trade. I think it was the good Dr. Nasmith who said, “you can’t run the triangle offense with an inefficient chucker stealing shots from your skilled center.”

  • Kaveh

    Hi spurs fans,

    I’m a huge lakers fan and have been checking out the other major team’s blogs (celtics/magic/cle/etc). I usually do not do this stuff in the offseason, but i’m still so pumped over this last year’s playoffs that i still need my daily fix. In any event, just to give a compliment to you guys, this board seems to be the most logical/realistic and thus classy board out of all of them. It’s a great read.

    I get tired of all those —we got Vince Carter and Ryan Anderson, this makes us the best team in NBA history ( i actually read that on a Magic board and the guy was being serious).

    Anyway, I think that the Spurs will be deadly next year. You need some ATHLETIC role players in my opinion. Ariza type of players. Posey type of players, etc. Also, it all depends on Ginobli. From what i’ve seen of Duncun, he is still a class act but has lost some of his ability. I’m not sure of Ginobli though. If he regains his health will he be as good as before? And will he regain his health?

    RJ is a very good player, but unfortunately for you guys he is a volume shooter. He needs his shots to be effective. I don’t think this will be a good fit for the spurs. In my mind Ginobli is the key. With him back, and the addition of RJ, you guys will be good enough to compete. However, the lakers are still the better team.

    Mcdysse is a great player. Take him if you can get him. His mid-range jumper is deadly.

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