Offensive Analysis: What if I Said ‘I Don’t Know’?
Incorporation of the NBA’s publicly viewable and increasingly sizable SportVU database has changed how we analyze the league, and it’s mostly for the better. It’s become much easier to watch the game without really watching the game, so to speak; or at least, it gives a wider scope through which to view both team and individual-player performances that typically aren’t easily noticeable when first viewing the game, not to mention a few things that are impossible to gauge with the human eye.
It’s like a giant box of truth candy: Some bites are sweeter than others, but they can all be used in some form or fashion to support a claim. Negative effects exist, though, and all too often we’re seeing quantitative analysis used as kindling to make the smoke being blown up your backside.
For example, as the typically high-octane Spurs head to what has to be the NBA’s coldest city on average, they do so boasting an offense frozen as the NBA’s seventh worst. All the statistics are there. San Antonio is playing at a slow pace — it’s actually middle of the pack, but that’s slow for the Spurs, relatively speaking — and its shooting aim has been just slightly better than that of an Imperial Stormtroopers. (More like Stormtrooper with the shot.) Here’s the thing: With all that’s available to us, we feel the need to supply an answer for everything, both because we expect it, and so do our readers.
And here’s the other thing: I have no idea why every Spur is shooting like he’s Josh Smith.
When you watch the games and follow up on the stats later that night or early the next morning, you search for the warning signs. What the hell is this team doing differently? Is it actually doing anything differently, or is it an optical illusion created by balls bouncing off the rim at a high rate?
Combing through the database yields no information that can give us, or at least me, conclusive answers. Shooting percentages are way down, but all the data that surrounds the actual act of shooting — spacing measures, proximity to the defender, time on the shot clock, assist chances — doesn’t reveal many differences that are more than negligible or can’t be explained by simply pointing toward the slower pace (i.e. the fewer possessions you have, the lower the totals will be in regard to certain stats).
The one thing I saw that has me just throwing darts at a board while spitballing to myself is the fact the Spurs are driving to the basket more this season, 31.1 times per game (1.04 points per drive) as opposed to 23.6 times a night (1.11 points per drive) last season. Why the hell is there such a big difference? It’s not like they’re getting better returns and emphasizing it more because of that. It’s not like that’s some super weird stat, but in a field of numbers, that’s one category (other than the shooting percentages themselves) that stands out to me.
I thought maybe this had something to do with the strategy the Mavs employed during the playoffs last season. Maybe teams were copying it a little bit — sticking to spot-up shooters and forcing the Spurs to beat them off the dribble. After all, the number of catch-and-shoot field-goal attempts are a bit down this year, and they did take a big dip during the 2014 postseason. But again, these numbers can be traced back to pace quite easily, and the dip from last season to this is less than two attempts per game. This isn’t the difference.
Still, what about spacing and shooters’ proximity to defenders? Negligible. They’re basically getting just as many quality looks as they did last season, per SportVU data.
Yet here’s the one that sort of bothers me: I’ve seen a lot of people point to the fact that San Antonio’s offense is passing the ball more times per game than it did even last season and concluding from that bit of information that they must be moving as they always have.
Well, no. Your eyes can tell you that’s not true. And furthermore, yes they’re moving the ball more, but they’re doing so in fewer possessions per 48 minutes and creating fewer assist chances per game than they did last season. Just passing the ball a lot doesn’t mean a thing if the passes aren’t being made to a player in a threatening position, and there doesn’t seem to be the same level of urgency.
More than 27 percent of the Spurs’ field-goal attempts are coming with seven seconds or fewer remaining on the shot clock. Compare that to 19.5 percent last season and you’re seeing the result of a slower pace. Remember, Gregg Popovich has always talked about how important it is for this team to move quickly and with purpose, and they’re not exactly flying around at lightning speed right now.
Something just doesn’t quite look right, but there’s always the easy thing to point to that we try and avoid for some reason: This team misses Tiago Splitter, Marco Belinelli, and Patty Mills. The latter two were first and third, respectively, in terms of 3-point shooting percentage, and the former is invaluable as a pick-and-roll partner for Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, and others. San Antonio’s value comes in the numbers they throw at the opposition in waves, and without these weapons at their disposal, they’re not nearly as lethal.
The Spurs are still formidable without these three, to be sure, but it’s that extra bench bump that makes them the best team in the NBA. They need a return to health, and along with it, a little more purpose and focus with the movements they make. The Timberwolves are a fun, young, athletic team, but they’re severely banged up right now, as Kevin Martin, Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic, Thaddeus Young, and Ronny Turiaf will all miss tonight’s game.
For the silver and black, Belinelli might be back in uniform, which would no doubt provide a lift to the cringeworthy shooting numbers the team is putting up. The defense is currently playing as well as it has in years, but the offense has got to figure out what’s grinding its gears.
Maybe a matchup with a bunch of rookies will help, but it’s going to be tough to take much away from this one, regardless. The Spurs should handle Minnesota, and with a game in San Antonio tomorrow night, should be trying to play starters as minimal minutes. I just want to see them score a bunch of points, because it’s been a while. Specifically, I want to see them start hitting the open shots they’re getting along the way.
Other than that, what do they have to do differently? Besides make the ball go in the damn basket, I don’t have a clue.
