Offseason Breakdown: Aiming Small
In Wednesday’s post, I suggested the Spurs needed to put their backcourt house in order. This might come about naturally as players develop and learn the system. The return of Manu Ginobili will help, as if I needed to tell you. But if I let the impression with any of our readers that the Spurs had some sort of crisis situation at guard, then forgive me. That’s not the case at all. It’s the position where the Spurs are strongest in terms of talent. What I do question, however, is whether the pieces all fit together. Or, more precisely, if the Spurs would not be better served exchanging a backcourt role player for another team’s wing.
Back around the trade deadline, Vince Carter to the Spurs rumors were flying fast and furious. The Star Ledger’s Dave D’Allessandro said the parameters of the deal was a pile up of expiring contracts and either George Hill or Roger Mason Jr. Somehow the deal never happened, but one would expect that other teams will engage the Spurs in similar discussions in the coming weeks. So, using Vince Carter as our example, the Spurs would have to pile up Bruce Bowen, Matt Bonner, Fabricio Oberto and Roger Mason Jr. for the math to work. Try your hand at the Trade Machine. If you substitute Richard Jefferson, the trade looks more or less the same. Technically, the Spurs could make these deals work by adding Kurt Thomas and subtracting Mason Jr., but one wonders if other teams would be willing to part with an impact player, even in a salary dump scenario, without getting some young talent back in return. Bruce Bowen, Kurt Thomas and Matt Bonner are all valuable players, but you can’t sell them to fans as easily as George Hill or Roger Mason Jr.
This is familiar history to many of you, so why rehearse it now? The point of this post is not to advocate for one trade scenario over another. My goals are more modest. Obviously, I’m not sure what the Spurs will do. Instead, I’m trying to give our readers a sense of what they could do, especially if they’re willing to part with Mace or Hill. Previously, I’ve indicated that given the choice of parting with either Mason or Hill, I’d prefer the Spurs retain Hill. But beyond this, Mason Jr.’s contract helps make the trade math work; Hill doesn’t make enough to put a dent in most trade scenarios.
The Carter and Jefferson scenarios represent something approaching a straight up salary dump. Over the past several months, the Spurs have only been rumored in mammoth deals. But I’m not convinced the Spurs couldn’t score big, even if they aimed smaller. Let me suggest a couple names that could be available one or two shelves below Vince Carter and Richard Jefferson, but who would still improve the Spurs wing situation. In other words, the Spurs have some flexibility to make a move on a smaller scale.
Josh Childress
The Atlanta Hawks own Childress’ rights, but after he left them for Greece the two parties amended their Christmas Card lists. If he returns to the NBA, it won’t be to Atlanta. It seems to me that an expiring contract and Roger Mason Jr. for Josh Childress is a fair deal-the Hawks would be getting both players for free. Prior to bolting, Childress turned down a 5 year, 33 million dollar offer from the Hawks. If the Spurs offered something closer to 7 or 8 million, he might consider it. That might be overpaying for him, but it’s overpayment for a 26 year old. From a basketball standpoint, the Spurs would be getting a starting SF/SGÂ and the Hawks would be getting two quality veterans, at positions of need, for nothing.
James Jones and Dorrel Wright
The Heat are thinking of moving Michael Beasley to small forward. If that happens they’ll have a long jam of players and contracts at the position. Moreover, they need more depth at point guard and center. Again, an expiring contract and Mason Jr. would work. All four players are playing on quasi-expiring contracts (only Jones’ first two years are guaranteed). I admit that this is scenario that might not improve the Spurs at all. It’s a risk, but it’s a low risk. If it doesn’t work, the 2010 strategy remains in tact and the Spurs carry their reload agenda forward.
But this does give San Antonio an opportunity to address their small forward situation. I suspect many of our readers will look at this scenario and shake their heads. But the incoming scoring would make up for Mason’s 11 ppg, Jones would provide 3 point shooting, Wright is an exceptional rebounder, and both players are long, capable defenders.
Aim small, miss small.
If the Spurs went this direction, they’d have a hole at shooting guard. But with George Hill, Dorell Wright, the draft, and options like Malik Hairston and Austin Nichols, they should be able to fill that hole. No worries.
Travis Outlaw or Martell Webster
The Trailblazers have too many small forwards. Way too many. Kevin Pritchard drives a tough bargain, and is not likely to trade with the Spurs. The longstanding rumor is that Pritchard wants to package a bunch of his better role players for a star point guard. So, it doesn’t look like there is a deal here. Nevertheless, the Spurs could wait out the summer to see of one of the players becomes available.
******
Returning to my point. The Spurs are not strictly limited to taking on a salary dump. Perhaps, they’d be willing to part with a good player at one position in order to satisfy a greater need at another. Moreover, the Spurs do not necessarily have to choose between trading for a big contract now or waiting until 2010 to reload. They could make a smaller move that left all or part of the 2010 free agent money in tact. I’m sure that you, our readers, have ideas of your own. If the Spurs have taught us anything, it’s that they’ll make an unexpected move. With a healthy Manu Ginobili, the Spurs are not far from championship form. I tend to think that if impact players like Vince Carter become available, the Spurs really ought to pull the trigger. But they could get back into the championship conversation by adding one or two quality role players. As fans we gravitate toward home runs, but singles and doubles can win games too.
