Offseason Breakdown: Drew Gooden and the Frontcourt

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I plan a long series of posts considering the Spurs roster, with consideration toward individual players and larger roster issues. At points, these posts might overlap with thoughts on the upcoming draft (forthcoming shortly). But they will be tagged differently. I wasn’t sure where to start with my offseason analysis, but Pop’s DNP of Drew Gooden in last night’s loss seems like a good place.

Should the Spurs resign Drew Gooden? I think not. Let me explain.

The 2010 Cap Strategy

The Spurs are currently in good cap position for 2010. I think they could abandon their 2010 free agent strategy, but only for a few specific circumstances. One such circumstance would be the ability to take on a star player in a trade. I call this the Vince Carter Exception. But it could also apply to odd circumstance players such as Josh Childress. If the Spurs can land an impact player, they should. Damn the 2010 torpedoes. Otherwise, it makes sense for the Spurs to stay the 2010 course.

Resigning Drew Gooden for the full MLE (his asking price, methinks) messes with all this. He played well as a Spur, but I’m not sure he makes a lot of sense for the team going forward, especially if it compromises the Spurs ability to land an impact player via trade or through 2010 free agency. As good as Gooden is, he’s a role player. With the health concerns that surround the team’s age, they need to swing for the fences. The team needs to add a game changer. And they’ll need cap space to make that happen. Gooden only makes sense on a one year deal or if he’ll take a less than market value multi-year contract, but I doubt he’ll have much interest in those options.

The 2010 talks tends to center around bigs such Amare Stoudemire, Chris Bosh, Yao Ming and Dirk Nowitzki. But those players only have opt out clauses next summer. They may not be on the market. It will be interesting to see whether or not the cold economy discourages those guys from leaving money on the table. In that case, the Spurs might want to modify to a 2011 plan, or some such. You can find a helpful list of the player pool here. The current assumption, however, is that many of those players should be available. The Spurs should fall into a wait and see holding pattern.

Ian Mahinmi and Tiago Splitter

The three important things to know about Drew Gooden’s game is that he’s an excellent low post scorer, mediocre rebounder and below average defender. The Spurs are best served to find a post option that reverses Gooden’s characteristics. In other words, they need a player who is an above average post defender, solid rebounder and merely decent at scoring the ball.

The Spurs have two players in their immediate pipeline whom might answer those calls. The first is Ian Mahinmi, who is signed to an inexpensive rookie contract. Mahinmi has shown lots of promise, but no one really knows what the kid has to offer. He set out the season due to injury, but was scheduled to be a part of the rotation last season. I’m not suggesting he is at Gooden’s level, but, on a cost-benefit analysis, if he can give the Spurs 6 and 6 at only 1 million a season, he’s probably a better option than Gooden. He’s also an able shot blocker and post defender, something the Spurs need.

We recently learned that Tiago Splitter could be available to the Spurs in the near future. He’s precisely the sort of big that San Antonio needs to add up front. But he’ll cost the Spurs more money than a typical rookie. The Spurs can’t afford to tie up their frontcourt cap with Gooden if they plan to bring Splitter over.

Other Options

I haven’t said as much yet, but I’m operating under the assumption the Spurs could move much of their frontcourt in a trade(s). I don’t think there is any guarantee that Fabricio Oberto, Kurt Thomas and Matt Bonner will be on next year’s team. They could be, but their contracts may be needed to accommodate a trade. One of the reasons the Spurs should be fine moving one or all of those players is that they have a couple end of the bench frontcourt options available–players that would occupy the same pine that Fabricio Oberto did this season.

I’ve already mentioned Ian Mahinmi and Tiago Splitter, but let me throw out a couple more names. Robertas Javtokas‘ Russian contract has expired. He’s at least as good as Oberto and the Spurs own his rights. If he’ll sign at an affordable price, he’s a great option as a low minute rotation player. Another option is Toros standout Dwayne Jones. Jones has played professionally with the Cavs and now has a season with Austin on his resume. He’s a good rebounder who understands the system. The Spurs could sign him for 1/3 of what Oberto makes and get the same scoring and board production. Finally, the Spurs own the rights of James Gist, who is something of a combo forward. He’s a long shot, but would benefit from a Spurs roster spot and the opportunity at a season-long Toros assignment. With Gist, a lot depends on his summer league productivity.

(Finally, there is Pops Mensah-Bonsu, who is not available. That’s because the Spurs screwed the pooch by not buying out Jacque Vaughn and retaining Pops. We live. We learn. We try to move on. Hindsight is 20/20 this side of Manu Ginobili’s ankle injury, but I wish the Spurs had shown better judgement. This is not a Gooden/Mensah-Bonsu either/or. The Spurs should have signed both, but this was only possible by showing JV the door. Yet another regretful side effect of second-guessing George Hill.)

What Type of Player Could the Spurs Use?

Beyond the things listed above, we all know the Spurs could use a shot blocker. Tim Duncan has been the only true shot-blocker on the team since Rasho Nesterovic left, and Rasho’s defense obviously paled in comparison to David Robinson’s. Kurt Thomas is an excellent interior defender, but not as much of a shot blocking threat. Neither is Drew Gooden.

The Spurs could also use a big who can spread the floor. Matt Bonner is their current option, but he is not a Robert Horry replacement. Bonner’s virutal non-existence in the postseason, after a remarkable season in which he played to his ceiling, should have the Spurs thinking about pulling the plug on the New Hampshire Experiment. They’ve seen all that he has to offer. Perhaps they try something else.

The Spurs would also benefit from a big who is able to guard face-up 4s such as David West and Dirk Nowitzki. This is a long standing roster need. The combination of Matt Bonner and Ime Udoka is not the right answer.

Rasheed Wallace

Rumors of Rasheed Wallace’s desire to join the Spurs began back in February, and they continue down to the present. Wallace meets all of the Spurs frontcourt needs, save one. He’s old. But that’s actually not a bad thing this time around. Signing Wallace on a one year deal for part or all of the MLE fits within the Spurs 2010 strategy and answers current roster needs–he can block shots, defend and knock down threes. Signing Wallace to a short term contract also gives the Spurs roster flexibility in light of other possibilities, such as adding Tiago Splitter in 2010.

Verdict

In all likelihood the Spurs are better served to let Drew Gooden walk, especially if they’re able to sign Rasheed Wallace in free agency. Under that scenario, the Spurs would look to include the contracts of one or two bigs in a trade deal for an impact wing. Maybe that’s possible, maybe not. In any case, if the Spurs aim high they could remake their frontcourt rotation this offseason. After the dust settles, I’m hoping they return a roster of 5 bigs that looks something like:

Duncan/Wallace/Thomas/Mahinmi/Javtokas or Jones

This scenario is hopeful that Thomas steps away in 2o1o and is replaced by Tiago Splitter.

It’s a risky gamble to take on a few pairs of old legs. But it preserves their 2010 aspirations and provides some correctives to current roster issues.

  • http://jacemannba.blogspot.com Jaceman

    Great post, I think though that the Spurs really ought to look into the free agency for some solid wings. One thing I think that the Spurs need to add, or perhaps change, because the Big 3 are getting older, is upgrading the likes of Finley and Bowen into players that can create their own shot. I would try to upgrade the wings first.

  • ThatBigGuy

    Very nice post. Everything you say is very logical and could work pretty well on every front if it comes together like suggested. One side note, I’m not sure Dwayne Jones is good enough even for a token roster spot. I’ve seen him in person and he seemed really slow. He didn’t have any explosion in traffic either. But I guess if he’s cheap, he can have Fab’s (lack of) minutes for 1/3 the price.

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    Money is the enemy, my friend.

    The Spurs only have exception money to work with. They don’t have anything under the cap. In other words, roughly 5 million in midlevel and another 1 and change in their vet minimum. Assume Wallace signs for at leat 3.5 of the MLE. What wing are the Spurs going to sign for less than 2 million? You see the rub? They’ll either have to land a big or a wing through a trade.

    Having said that, I absolutely agree with your assessment of the wing situation. No question the Spurs need to upgrade. But creativity is the theme of this offseason. I’m gonna deal with all these issues, one post at a time for the next few weeks.

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    About Jones: that might be true. No reason to doubt you. I think he has enough for a spot. I suspect the Spurs will invite him to summer league and training camp. Depending on what happens on the trade front, he could get a roster spot by default. But I’ll wait and see. Maybe he’ll just earn one.

  • Jose

    Great post,love the insight. I think the Spurs most glaring weakness is the small forward. I feel like the Spurs most address that first. Via trade, or signing a free agent. The Spurs need a wing player who is young and can jump. Not to mention one that can defend, and has offensive capabilities.

    Second, if Gooden is willing to sign for less and signs for a year. I think its worth the risk. Sheed is talented, no doubt. But will he play with heart,is the bigger question.

    Lastly, the Spurs should’nt put all their aspirations for the future,in 2010. Sure they are a stock load of talent. But the economy will play a huge role. Plus they are plenty of other teams in the running in 2010. There will be competition for all the free agents.

    The Spurs can find game- changers before and after 2010. What I’m saying is don’t put all your marbles in 2010. There are other scenarios that could be more beneficial for the Spurs in the future.

  • Big50

    I’ve been lurking for a bit and I enjoy your posts. I think this is a very interesting topic and I look forward to your future insights.

    I will say that as far as the Spurs front line, I really like Thomas, I think he’s a great backup for TD. That being said I like the way Gooden can score. If we bring in Mahinmi and he plays well with Duncan, how does our bench look? I don’t know if Gooden will work, but I like the idea of a scoring big in the second unit with Thomas.

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    There are two ways to respond to your question. The first is to say that the Mahinmi and Wallace should provide as much scoring (or more) than Gooden, and less expensively. The second is to ask what type of scoring? In this case, Wallace is as adroit on the block as Gooden, but with the added bonus of Pop’s much loved three ball. Wallace’s ability to stretch the floor is a big consideration.

  • SpurredOn

    I’m looking forward to the ideas you and Graydon have been saving up since it became clear this season would not end with a championship (that would be when Manu went out for good). The insight is refreshing and helps me move forward.

    Jose - Your worry about Sheed playing with heart (or more likley with full focus and discipline) is legit but recall, he had his most productive seasons under Pop’s buddy, Larry Brown. I think Sheed is at his best when he’s not expected to be the alpha with all the pressure on his shoulders. In some ways, he is Horry. Remember Horry’s short stint in Phoenix? Some guys mentally drift when playing for coaches they don’t respect and/or in an unsuccessful environoment. That wouldn’t be an issue here and we could use someone who’s unafraid to make big shots in the playoffs and would send a physical message to guys like Damp and Terry when they act like jerks.

  • Jesse Blanchard

    Moving forward, the Spurs are still a championship team with Manu Ginobili reasonably healthy, but I’m not sure it is safe to expect him to hold up a whole year.

    Offensively the Spurs biggest problem was the inability of any other Spurs player to further breakdown a defense while it is rotating. Go back and watch how hard the Mavs closed out on Spurs shooters, chasing them off the three-point line while completely unafraid any of the role players would hurt them off the dribble. This allowed the Mavs to send extra help on Tim Duncan or Tony Parker while covering Spurs shooters.

    Normally after a double team on Duncan or a Parker drive the ball would eventually swing to Ginobili, who was brilliant at further breaking down a scrambling defense. Roger Mason, and at this point in his career, George Hill, just are not up to providing this (Mason being merely a shooter and Hill lacking the creativity at this point).

    Finding another superstar is not a viable option at this point, but someone who can provide an approximation of the slashing/shooting skill set Ginobili brings. Especially in the second unit where it was painfully clear that no one could create a shot (Mason stepping behind a screen and shooting a three-pointer off the dribble does not count).

    Keeping in mind that the likes of Ben Gordon and Hedo Turkeyglue have played their way out of our price range, the Spurs best bet is to find a Flip Murray (who happens to be a free agent, according to ESPN’s list) type. Trevor Ariza and Grant Hill are possibilities worth looking into.

    The Spurs role players, Bruce Bowen, Ime Udoka and Roger Mason, are actually solid but they need specific type of players around them to work (players who can create).

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    This is gonna be a fun series. One of the great things about all these comments is that each one, in some way, anticipates a future post. Good stuff, dear friends. Good stuff. Keep in coming.

  • gospurs44

    I think Pops is a free agent. I saw him being interviewed during a Toronto/Texas baseball game last week.The announcers asked him if he was returning to the Raptors and he said he was a free agent. Unless that’s changed in the last few days.

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    Really? I thought the Raptors locked him up for summer league. Hmm. A link would be great.

    If he’s out there, then he should absolutely receive a summer league and camp invite. He could be a valuable and inexpensive guy for the bench. He showed an ability to play in the system in both his Toros and Spurs stints. He’s less complicated and younger than Javtokas and he’s better than Jones. Sign me up.

  • Duaneofly

    I don’t think it matters too too much who we get for a big / wing. Finley and Bonner are the bottom of the barrel at their positions, so most anyone else would be an improvement.
    We could sign Sheed for a year, then try and work a trade for perhaps Richard Jefferson. Than in 2010 Sheed leaves and Tiago replaces him.

  • gospurs44

    I think the Raptors may have given Pops a qualifying offer which means he is a restricted FA and they have the right to match any offer he gets.

  • Jesse Blanchard

    Another key missing to this year’s playoff run (or lack thereof) that can be acquired on the cheap is an energy player in the front court.

    Though not the typical athletic mold of an energy player, Fabricio Oberto played the role well during the Spurs last title run-keeping possessions alive, grabbing boards, and playing off of Tim Duncan.

    Duncan’s front court sidekicks this year: Matt Bonner offered shooting and little else (and not even that in the playoffs). Kurt Thomas is a solid interior defender, but not an active one. Drew Gooden is Drew Gooden and Oberto is done.

    ‘Pops’ was a potential answer, but he ended up in Toronto. While finding a skilled big like Rasheed Wallace would be nice, finding someone young, energetic and athletic enough to create chaos in the second unit should be a priority.

    The good thing about these Malik Rose (who happens to be a free agent, but I wouldn’t recommend for anything other than a Sean Marks role)-type players is that they are usually easy to find (Brandon Bass) and relatively cheap starting out.

    In a perfect world the anwers would already be inhouse with Ian Mahinmi. Other than that it’s just a matter of scrounging through the development league for someone who can fit this mold.

  • SpurredOn

    I’d like to go after Sheed (old, but brings toughness) and Ariza (young and a primary defender). We still need a primary backup for Tony that is not Hill. I see Hill taking more of Bowen’s minutes with the ability to finish at the rim (how beautiful was that last night, the dunk and even the missed layup?). He even hit a corner 3 in consecutive games. He can also take some of Manu’s minutes as we must account for him not being a 40 mpg player.

    For a PG backup, I’m thinking someone like Shannon Brown with the Lakers, who deserve credit for trading for him. A guy who can shoot the 3 (not Tony’s game) and be another player to break down a defense. We need more than TP, Manu and Hill. You’d like to have two if not three guys on the court at one time who can get to the rim when the big 3 are sitting or injured.

  • John

    My big question about this post is whether or not Rasheed would be WILLING to sign a one-year deal, regardless of how much it was for. The man is 34 - he’s got to realize this is his last shot at anything resembling a “long-term” contract (2-3 years) for more than the veteran’s minimum. Just curious.

  • Jesse Blanchard

    George Hill is a bit of a question mark to me. Not in that he’s an NBA player, but whether or not he would serve better as a trade asset.

    He might already be the best perimeter defender on the Spurs but that might not matter unless he develops enough of an offensive game to play next to Tony Parker.

    Like former Spurs pg Antonio Daniels, Hill is pretty much a straight line dribbler. If he can get a first step he goes straight at the basket and does a decent job at the rim, but he has little elusiveness in his game and lacks the penetration skills to play big minutes at point guard in the Spurs system.

    In the offseason Hill needs to develop a steady three-point shot, as a simple midrange will not suffice if he’s going to play next to Parker.

    All that being said, I’d trade him without hesitation if he can bring back a starting, athletic small forward.

    Not that I don’t like his upside, but the Spurs aren’t winning a title without Manu Ginobili and I would rather have a player that can be on the court with he and Parker than a bench player.

  • ThatBigGuy

    Anyway we can swing deals, via trade or unloading cap room to sign free agents, for Trevor Ariza and Anderson Varejao? Would those 2 not be perfect, at least on paper?

  • Jose

    Spurred On- good point about Sheed and Larry Brown. I would welcome Sheed to the Spurs. If he plays like he did for Brown. No doubt Sheed would be a huge addition.

    I do like the idea of Trevor Ariza in the silver and black. He’s 6’8, defends, and will only get better in that area. Not to mention he’s 23!

    George is still a question mark. But the guy can play. He will see increased minutes next year. His defense is good and he has potential on the offensive side.

  • Bryan

    Great post, Tim. It’s kind of a weird feeling to be thinking toward next year in the month of April, but it’s that thought that I think helped some of us get out of bed this morning. (Okay, maybe that was a bit extreme).

    I found a couple of articles on PMB, and it sounds like he isn’t under contract yet:
    http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/sport/more_sport/article6087030.ece
    http://www.hoopsaddict.com/2009/04/04/mensah-bonsu/
    It would be nice to see the Spurs get him back, but sounds like they’ll be getting some competition from Toronto.

    Rasheed would fit Pop’s desire for a shooting 4, but he looked pretty dispicable in that Cavs series. Maybe it was just because he was unmotivated… maybe it was because he is in the twilight of his career. He was averaging just north of 6/6 in that series. Should the Spurs really take a chance on him when we got burned so badly by Horry just last season?

    Of course, Bonner didn’t really pan out this offseason, so maybe Rasheed is an upgrade. I like the idea of keeping Thomas around as well. Javtokas might be interesting. He and Mahinmi would definitely be wildcards.

  • fingon5

    I am not ruling out bringing in Rasheed, but I feel like a lot of people are a little too high on this move. If we can get him cheap on a short term deal, it may be worth the risk, but let’s not understate the risk. He quit on the Pistons this year, and I would argue he did the same the year before when the Cavs were beating them. I don’t like my role players to selectively play hard, especially when that comes with technical fouls, constant complaining to the refs, and disrespect towards coaches. When he was in his prime, you probably find a way to live with that, but at this point he’s offensively extremely limited; he’s a far better three point shooter in his own mind than he is in reality. His defense would be nice, but the price must be right (low).

  • Navin

    What is real sad is that the one guy we let go, Brent Barry, was the guy we missed the most. He is a good ball-handler and an excellent 3pt shooter…… too bad!

  • John

    Lamar Odom and Trevor Ariza are both free agents this year, and the Lakers can’t afford both. Welcome to San Antonio, Trevor.

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    True, true, true. But I feel like all that is reflected in the paycut. MLE or less. Short contract.

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    Bryan,

    Great work on the links.

    The Cavs and Mavs might be better options for ‘Sheed. They will probably offer more money.

    I actually thought Bonner played very well this season. And, ironically, that’s why I want to see him go. He gave the Spurs everything he’s got this year, and it just doesn’t seem to be a good fit. Better to regroup, I think.

  • GMT

    I’ve been looking into the Lakers offseason situation and I think we might have a chance at getting either Ariza or Shannon Brown since both have expiring contracts and both would want more money than they are getting now, but Odom’s is expiring as well. Odom would have to take a cut in his contract in order for LAL to keep all three.

    I’m not really sure about my understanding of cap room, though. When it’s negative, e.g. Spurs’ cap is -$9,484,231, is that how much we are over the cap?

  • fingon5

    What type of decent wing do you really think we can get for some combination of our expiring bigs (Bonner, Thomas, and Oberto)? Maybe the down economy will allow us to pry somebody loose for that, but usually when teams trade decent players they want expiring contracts plus a good young player or a solid draft pick. I would guess that the only way we get a good player for our bigs is if they have a really onerous contract.

  • Jordan

    I know some people dislike Simmons’ take, but I would have to agree with him on Drew Gooden. Taken from his most recent article:
    “Know when I knew it was over for the Spurs? When they signed Drew Gooden. Good rebounder, decent inside scorer, total knucklehead. He grew a mini-beard on the back of his neck three years ago. He let down LeBron so many times that LeBron developed an actual “Drew Gooden disappointed me yet again and I might have to kill him soon” frown. When he went to Chicago, Cleveland immediately became a better team. The Bulls dumped him and they immediately became better. He’s exactly the type of player the Spurs NEVER sign: someone who looks better on paper than he actually is. I just thought it seemed like a desperate move. And it was.”

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  • http://jacemannba.blogspot.com Jaceman

    Considering the Spurs don’t really have a pick (I believe it was one traded to OKC for Kurt Thomas), I think Buford definitely has to think outside of the box. One player I’ve been pushing for since the regular season would be Argentine combo forward Walter Hermann. Spurs have to look closely for those Roger Mason-esque players, in the sense, that they’re solid and good, just that they get buried in the rotation and lose out on playing time.

  • ChillFAN

    Great comments, sorry to add disjointed thoughts, but here goes:
    Planning around Gooden for the next years is not the route we should take.
    Brents entire contribution was a good pass here or there and some funny commercials.
    Malik Rose, McDyss, odom???
    No, No, and H no.
    Sheed was someone that may have worked in 08, now he’s out of gas.
    Bonner would be okay off the bench.
    We have so many needs, but wing will probably have to wait a year, so need #1: help Duncan.
    Again Sheed MIGHT help, but probably won’t.
    What about the heats o’neal?

  • Condor

    Talking about bigs, I just cannot get over giving Scola away for nothing. Buford used to be a great GM before he got that Executive of the Year Award. I am not sure he is still able to do what is needed to bring the Spurs back into the hunt.

  • http://www.themilkcarton.com Tyler

    Great Read. I agree on most of your points.

    On an semi-unrelated note, the Portland Tribune said that either Sergio Rodriguez or Channing Frye will probably be available via trade this off-season. They both seem to fit the mold of Spurs players, Rodriguez more so as a back-up point. But Frye also could be a good young body next to Duncan.

    Is there a way we could package some guys to get either?

  • http://jacemannba.blogspot.com Jaceman

    Chillfan,

    If you want to talk about out of gas, Jermaine O’Neal has less in his tank than ‘Sheed does. It would be amazing if we could land someone like Mehmet Okur, but I don’t think that’ll happen. There aren’t really a good number of bigs out there right now available for grabs. I agree that we need to get Timmy help, I think that ‘Sheed would be best available.

    I’m actually not opposed to trading either/both Mason and/or Bonner if we can get someone of value, like say Marvin Williams or something. I honestly can’t think of anyone that teams would be willing to give up that you could get value for. I don’t know why I’d trade for Frye as right now he’s pretty redundant with Ian Mahinmi.

    We could still see if either Camby or Kaman are available perhaps?

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    Maybe. I thought they were both free agents. Neither has a future in Portland. And the Blazers need to free up roster spots. I’d bet they would come cheap. I’m not sure they would help the Spurs, though.

  • Condor

    Travis Outlaw is a guy at Portland I’d love to see in Spurs uniform. I just want to get a guy with a lot of fire and energy. ‘Sheed would be a great addition. Okur seems to be sleepwalking most of the time, even though he is a good player. I always thought that Kirilenko might fit very well with the Spurs.

  • drjeff

    Please, please….don’t give George Hill away.

    Hill, Mahinmi and Splitter in 2010 could make us great again.

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    drjeff,

    Mahinmi is a question mark. Splitter is a hope. Hill has upside, but not that high. The Spurs will need those three players and much more as they move forward.

  • ChillFAN

    Jaceman, thanks for your words on Jermaine O’Neal. This thread is so long, that what I am about to say I’ll probably repeat in the future: it doesn’t matter what bigs we have around Duncan, if there is no obvious rotation come playoff time, the Spurs should expect a different result next year.

  • ChillFAN

    Correction: the Spurs shouldN’T expect a different result.

  • Clark

    One small correction, Tiago would have to agree to his 1st round rookie scale salary which would be similar to Ian’s. That is a big reason why he didn’t come over this year because he got a bunch more Euros. Financially, our only hope to get him is that he sees 2010 (when he has an out in his contract) as his last chance for a while to get to the NBA and takes a pay cut to do it.

  • http://www.48minutesofhell.com Timothy Varner

    Clark,

    Welcome. I assume that you’re relatively new here. Good to have you.

    Re: Splitter, you’ll be interested to read this.

    http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2009/04/23/tiago-splitter-news/

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