Monday, May 4th, 2009...5:42 am
Offseason Breakdown: The Cap
There are a lot of things I want to talk about in the Offseason Breakdown series. And, judging from the comment thread under the first installment, you have a lot on your mind too. Here’s what’s ahead: my thoughts about what direction the team should go with its backcourt, how to address the small forward situation and special considerations for the 2009/10 season. But before we get to all that, we need to spend a little time discussing the salary cap. What follows is a framework for discussion, not an exact picture. It’s impossible to know the exact picture until after the league sets its 2009-10 cap parameters.
Earlier this season, I offered up a cap breakdown for your reading enjoyment. Several months have passed and I was happy to see that Bruno from SpursTalk has done the same thing with a terrific post that improves on mine in every way. Much of what follows is indebted to him. Here’s the skinny:
- The Tax Line Should Be Around 70 million, maybe a bit higher.
- There is no reason to believe the Spurs will exceed the tax threshold, so this is functionally a hard cap for San Antonio.
- The Spurs will have their MLE (5.8 ish), LLE (2 million) and minimum salary exceptions-825,000 or 457,000, depending on the player. Obviously, these numbers are approximate.
- The Spurs must carry at least 13 players on their roster.
So, what’s the number? First, no matter how you break things down, the Spurs cannot get under the cap. The exceptions listed above represent their spending ability this summer. Second, the Spurs’ final cap number depends largely on 3 players: Michael Finley, Fabricio Oberto and Bruce Bowen.
Michael Finley has a player option that he must decide to pick up by July 1. That’s an important date. We’ll come back to it in a minute. But if Finley picks up his option, the Spurs are on the hook for his 2.5 million dollar contract. It’s also worth noting that the Spurs are not able to trade Finley without his consent. The ball is in his court.
Fabricio Oberto has a partially guaranteed salary. This means that if he is waived by July 1, teams only have to pay him 1.9 of his 3.8 million dollar contract. In other words, there is a strong chance that he’ll either be traded or waived by July 1.
Similarly, Bruce Bowen is only owed half of his contract if waived by August 1. His full deal is worth 4 million, so that reduces his waived-by money to 2 million, for all you math wizards out there.
You’re probably starting to see why July 1 is such an important date. Here’s the last wrinkle. For trade purposes, the full contract number, not the partial guarantee number, is used for salary match purposes. As you know, team’s in the NBA must match salaries at 125% for a trade to be legal. The incoming and outgoing players must be paid essentially the same amount of money. This is why you see so many 2 and 3 for 1 deals in the NBA. It’s about getting the math to work. But in reality, team’s are only taking on 3.9 (rather than 7.8) million if they trade for Bowen and Oberto before July 1. If they give up a player who is owed, say, 25 or 30 million, over the next 3 years, that’s a huge cap coup. The Spurs actually have about 29 million in expiring contracts, but only Oberto and Bowen are partially guaranteed.
If the Spurs trade Oberto and Bowen prior to July 1, the receiving team would waive them and pocket huge savings. If the Spurs can’t find a trade partner, we should expect to see them waive Oberto and Bowen. In both cases, we should expect the Spurs to be active between now and July 1. It will be a busy summer, early and often.
So assuming Finley picks up his option and Bowen and Oberto are traded or waived, the Spurs cap number is at about 65 million for 9 players. Assuming the tax line comes in at 70 million-ish, the Spurs can at least spend most of their MLE. If Finley doesn’t pick up his option, the Spurs will have all their exception money available without fear of incurring a tax penalty. As a fan, you should want Finley to forgo his 2.5 million and retire and the tax line to be set at a number closer to 71 million. Every dollar it comes in beneath that number will effect the Spurs ability to sign free agents with their exception money. We won’t have a final number from the league for a couple months. And the Spurs will have to field a team of at least 13 players.
Also, it’s worth noting that if the Spurs were to move into the first round of the draft, whomever they select would count against the cap. I can’t see the Spurs doing this unless it is to draft and stash an international player. It would also cost them a player or some cash to get into the first round. I can’t see that either. I’m sorry if this disappoints those of you who were hoping they’d move up to grab a player.
This is all necessary backdrop for the posts to follow. Leave your questions and comments below. Tomorrow, we’ll roll out our first draft preview. But chew on the cap today.
21 Comments
May 4th, 2009 at 8:36 am
How likely is it that the Spurs will make a move with the Bowen/Oberto contracts before July 1? If they make it move, doesn’t it have to be for an “over-the-hump” player, someone the Spurs think will definitely get them over the hump next year when he is added to the group of Duncan-Parker-Ginobili-Mason-Hill-Thomas(?)-Bonner(?). Because I can’t see any team giving up a good player on an expiring contract for Bowen/Oberto, which means whoever the Spurs acquire won’t be an expiring contract, which could impede the Spurs’ longterm cap strategy of having no non-Duncan-Parker-Ginobili players signed after 2010.
Can you think of any players who fit the criteria? A player who would put the Spurs over the top, whose contract isn’t expiring, and whose team is looking to cut payroll (well, I guess that includes almost everyone).
You think the Hornets would deal Chandler intra-division? We know they’ll deal him intra-conference. The salaries don’t quite match, he’s schedule to make 11.5 mil, so you’d have to throw in another guy. Would he get the Spurs over the hump? Rebounder/shotblocker to take some pressure off Duncan?
What about Jamison on Washington? Their cap situation for next year is a mess, they have $37 mil locked up in Arenas, Jamison, and Butler (and another $7 mil locked up in ETAN THOMAS of all people).
Just throwing out some ideas…
May 4th, 2009 at 8:48 am
Do the Spurs have any second round picks?
May 4th, 2009 at 8:50 am
Great post and it’s nice to have a good explanation of what the Spurs are looking at this offseason. Kind of helps to gauge and limit everyone’s expectations, since we can see what can and can’t be done.
I just don’t see Finley retiring. I mean, why give up that kind of money and the fact that he’s going to play 35 minutes a game because Pop loves him.
I agree with you Francis, I think it would be tough to see someone trading for Bowen/Oberto unless they were giving up a big salary, and that could compromise the 2010 offseason. I don’t see NO trading Chandler, nor the Spurs taking the offer especially if Presti was smart enough to nix the deal over concerns of Chandler’s health. And from everything I’ve read, I think the Wizards are keeping their Big 3 in tact and trying to make a run at things next year once everyone is healthy.
I’ve heard rumors before about Marvin Williams from Atlanta. Didn’t know if he would work. And also about Richard Jefferson before the trade deadline. Is he a player that could be revisited? What about a swap with Charlotte for Ray Felton and Alexis Ajinca? Felton would give us another PG and Ajinca is a 7 footer from France who could stay with the Spurs or be sent down to work with the Toros. Larry Brown might like another leader like Bowen and glue guy like Oberto..
May 4th, 2009 at 9:51 am
So we need Finley to retire. Hopefully Pop’s loyalty and committment to him will help if/when he asks Finley to retire. I doubt Fin is worried about money seeing as he made a ton from Cuban. Plus he has a ring. His poor playoff performance (minus game 1) may convince him that his legs will no longer allow him to play at the level to which he is accustomed. Should he stay, I see him taking JV’s role at the end of the bench and getting in about 30 games next season.
May 4th, 2009 at 10:07 am
rasheed?
Gordon?
Hinrick?
May 4th, 2009 at 10:36 am
Jose, the Spurs have three 2nd round picks, which you can take as a good or bad thing. But seeing the way the Spurs draft, it’s a good thing.
I really hope Finley retires, just to help the team out. Even in his few years here, he seems more loyal to San Antonio than any other of his former organizations (probably because of the ring). Plus isn’t Mark Cuban still cutting Finley a check, or is that just a rumor?
Either way, I’m hoping for a J.R. Smith (even though he’s restricted) or Trevor Ariza, and either McDyess or Sheed. But if Splitter gets the chance to leave, there goes the MLE, and there goes the chance of getting a Marvin Williams or Trevor Ariza.
May 4th, 2009 at 12:01 pm
Jose,
The Spurs draft at 37, 51 and 53.
Tim
May 4th, 2009 at 12:06 pm
Francis,
Remember, the Spurs have other expiring contracts they could package with Oberto and Bowen. It’s just that those are fully guaranteed and the Oberto and Bowen are not.
In that scenario the Spurs would, as you suggest, be taking on a huge deal, like Vince Carter’s contract. A contract someone else really wants out from under. And, yes, that would blow up their 2010 plan. In addition to Carter, Richard Jefferson is a possibility. Rip Hamilton or Tayshaun Prince might be available. And it’s possible the Spurs could land a promising young player as a sweetener to take on a ugly deal. So, for example, the Knicks would likely include Lee is someone took Eddy Curry as part of the deal.
May 4th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
Greg,
If we made a deal with Charlotte, I see the Spurs asking for more. For example, I can see them giving up a pile of expiring deals for Gerald Wallace, Ray Felton and Ajinca-Ajinca, fwiw, is a player that I really like too, at least as someone to run in Austin.
May 4th, 2009 at 12:17 pm
I know that he is a restricted FA but what abt Paul Milsap? Esp if the Jazz decide to re-sign Boozer.
May 4th, 2009 at 12:19 pm
SpurredOn,
I think Finley stays. And his knowledge of the system would make him more or less as helpful as someone who is green behind the system ears. Obviously, what Fin has in knowledge he’s lost in athleticism. So it’s a lose-lose trade off.
May 4th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
Maybe, Maybe and doubtful.
May 4th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
John,
You’re correct, Finley continues to be paid by Mark Cuban. He’s made a couple hundred million in his career. So he’s not hurting for cash.
May 4th, 2009 at 12:54 pm
Navin,
From what I’ve read, people expect things to go the other direction. The Jazz will let Boozer go and try to resign Milsap.
May 4th, 2009 at 2:58 pm
got a question how do team options work, could you say sign a guy to a one year deal with a 4yr team option, so you could get under cap nxt year?
May 4th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
Jaffe,
The Spurs will be under the cap next year. Theoretically your scenario could work, but most players are not keen on being dumped after a year-they want a big contract, and they want it for as long as possible.
Tim
May 5th, 2009 at 12:30 am
I want to apologize for my hopefulness, and I readily acknowledge the risk in what I am proposing.
I really think the Spurs should do whatever they can to get Mr. Tiago Splitter in 2010. I have been watching all the games he’s played that I can on NBA TV and the internet, and I think he’s the real deal. I would be peeved if the Spurs did anything this summer that would make it hard for them to sign Splitter in 2010.
I know about putting all of one’s eggs in one basket, but he seems like the only person who could step in and help THIS Spurs team win a 5th title.
Just my 2-cents.
~jeff
May 5th, 2009 at 5:54 am
Actually, if the Spurs trade or waive Bowen and Oberto and Finley makes good on his player option, my math puts the Spurs at just over 60 million for 9 players not 65.
May 5th, 2009 at 6:26 am
[...] Cap As we discussed yesterday, the luxury tax threshold is likely to impose a hard cap on the Spurs. This is important because the Spurs will only have so much money to pay rookies, even on second [...]
May 5th, 2009 at 6:37 am
Someone emailed me with the same thought. I don’t have time now, but later tonight I’ll double check myself. But let me ask, have you included the 3.9 million the Spurs would owe to Bowen and Oberto? If you do that, it’s right around 65. Without that money, and including Finley, their number is closer to 61. I suspect that’s the number you’re working with.
This raises an interesting point. It’s far better for the Spurs to trade Bowen and Oberto than to simply waive them. That goes without saying, but there, I’ve said it.
June 23rd, 2009 at 4:07 pm
[...] below, Oberto’s contract isn’t guaranteed, so this could be a salary dump after all. 48 Minutes of Hell explains in a post from early May (hat-tip: Dan Feldman): Fabricio Oberto has a partially guaranteed [...]
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