On the Five Game Winning Streak
The San Antonio Spurs defeated the Philadelphia 76es 97-89 last night, extending their winning streak to 5. The Spurs are now 9-6.
So far as winning streaks go, the current run is nothing to brag about. The Spurs have played 4 of 5 at home, beating Washington, Milwaukee, Golden State, Houston and Philadelphia. Prior to those five victories, San Antonio lost three in a row, and against playoff caliber competition. One could argue that that streak was more telling, that losses to Oklahoma, Dallas and Utah were more indicative of where the Spurs currently stand in Western conference pecking order.
The truth probably lies somewhere in between.
There are noteworthy points on each side of the argument, but it seems to me like the Spurs are ascending.
Richard Jefferson
The Spurs pessimist, certain to demur, will point to Richard Jefferson’s uneven play, wondering what the offseason fuss was all about. Jefferson has looked decidedly mediocre on most nights, despite a couple convincing early season performances. What’s the deal?
Unfortunately for the Spurs, the main concern with Jefferson is that he’s not impacting the game enough on the defensive end. His man defense is good, but not great. The Spurs consistently look to George Hill and Keith Bogans to guard the opposing team’s best perimeter players. Hill and Bogans relish the role of defensive stopper, and they also bring the goods. This is something the Spurs wanted from Richard Jefferson, and could still use, but have yet to see.
The worry here can’t be explained away by a lack of understanding. This is not a matter of Jefferson learning the system. This is a lack of defensive intensity.
It’s a pity for Jefferson, too. His offensive contribution might increase if he were more of a menace on defense. Simply put, he’s not playing poorly; he’s just not asserting himself at either end of the court. This is something Jefferson can improve now.
Defensively, it’s tough to award him more than a C.
On offense, Jefferson is in search of his niche with the Spurs, and we should expect him to take time finding it. RJ is not a particularly creative dribbler, and so his drives to the hoop depend on his ability to attack when the floor spacing bends in his favor. He’s kind of a Corey Maggette in the sense that he attacks the hoop straightaway. See Richard lower his head. See Richard drive to the hoop.
That’s not a bad thing. It’s just a matter of spacing and chemistry. Although, the Spurs would help Jefferson immensely if they could find him more often in transition.
He’s earned an incomplete on offense.
Jefferson’s lackluster defensive play highlights a lurking roster deficiency, one that is extremely difficult to quantify.
Wanted: More Grit
David Thorpe is fond of saying that energy is a skill. He’s right, and it’s helpful to remember that “intangibles” are unique to the skill sets of players and teams. Back when the Spurs were the defensive kings of the league–it’s a shame we have to couch such statements in the past tense–their team defense was gritty. Bruce Bowen and Robert Horry, for example, were physical players, not afraid to use their hands and hips on defense. Steve Nash was always one bump away from the scorers table.
Like it or not, good defensive teams are physical. The best two defensive teams I’ve watched this season, Boston and Charlotte, never tire of laying a body on the other bodies. When chesting guys off their cut-line isn’t effective, both teams are happy to straight push the opposition off course. Richard Jefferson needs to play with more grit. DeJuan Blair needs to learn grit. George Hill, Keith Bogans and Antonio McDyess are almost pestering, but need to take their defensive brattiness up a level.
Beginning to Board
The second area of concern for the Spurs has been rebounding, something we’ve repeatedly mentioned in this space. But the Spurs have turned the ship.
San Antonio started the season near the bottom of the league in terms of their offensive and defensive rebound rate, but they’re much improved. Their defensive rebound rate is near the top of the league, and they rank in the middle with regard to offensive boards. That’s not such a bad place for the Spurs, especially considering that they prefer transition defense to offensive boards. They actually won the battle of the boards by plus-5 during their 3-game losing streak. It’s a story fading to black.
Most of San Antonio’s losses this season–the recent three game skid included–were a tale of the team lacking energy, of not looking sharp. The team as a team is beginning to come into focus.
A Defense on the Mend
The first and most important place of focus is defense. The team played dreadful D over the course of the first half dozen games, but that’s no longer the case.
During their 5-game winning streak, San Antonio is beating opponents by 13.2 ppg. More impressively, the Spurs are holding opponents to 40.9% shooting. They’re doing a much better job of closing the lane and contesting shots than earlier in the season. The Spurs’ defense is solid trending toward fierce, but, as noted above, still lacks the requisite attitude of a top defensive team.
Tony Parker as Less Than Tony Parker
Neither Manu Ginobili nor Tony Parker are off to hot starts this season. Each player has nursed minor injuries, and neither is playing at his accustomed level of dominance. But this is an area where player efficiency ratings–especially those with a large sample size–are a help.
Manu Ginobili is an easy case. His current PER is 22.99. His average over the past 5 seasons is 23.19. In other words, when Manu is healthy, he’s capable of giving the Spurs the same boost toward a championship as in past seasons. He’s fragile, but resilient.
Tony Parker is out-of-sync. His current PER, 18.98, is down almost 5 points from last season. One should expect his per minute production to increase, and as that happens the Spurs’ already fifth ranked offense should improve too. John Hollinger projected Tony Parker to PER at 21.85 this season. That might be a smidgen high, but there is no reason to think Parker won’t end up closer to 22 than 18.
Here’s the point: the full-time return of Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili will improve the team. (I know, Captain Obvious strikes again.)Â But improvement is not simply a matter of their being on the court. The point is a little more subtle.
When Parker and Ginobili are playing, the Spurs are a better team. But it’s also true that when Parker and Ginobili are playing Parker and Ginobili are better. Their full-time return should allow each player to work his way to full-strength.
Best Bench in the NBA
So far as Jefferson, Parker and Ginobili are off to rough starts, the Spurs’ core is struggling. San Antonio’s bench, on the other hand, is remarkably good. It’s the best bench in the league, and mostly without its key cog. Matt Bonner is playing the best basketball of his career, George Hill is steady, but not sensational, and DeJuan Blair is a burst of energy whenever he steps onto the court.
The bench is not without issues, of course. Roger Mason Jr., for example, is slowly working his way out of a shooting slump. But on more than one occasion this season the reserves have carried the starters. If the bench can maintain its current level of play, the improved play of the final five will transform San Antonio into a unmistakable title contender.
Tim Duncan Still Dominant
The best thing about the first fifteen games of the season–the reason for the most optimism–is the play of Tim Duncan. Duncan is currently leading the Spurs in points (18.5), rebounds (10.8), and blocks (2.0). He’s third on the team in assists (3.7). The advanced player metrics suggest that Tim Duncan is one of the top 5-10 players in basketball, whether one considers PER (28.13, fourth in the league) or Adjusted PER (27.06, sixth in the league for players averaging over 30 minutes per game).
To say Tim Duncan is playing well this season is an understatement. He’s playing 6 points higher than his projected PER. And he’s doing so at less than 32 minutes per game. Some nights, like last night, players like DeJuan Blair give the Spurs the added luxury of giving their old warhorse rest. This is a fringe benefit to the team’s surging bench.
I’m not certain why Tim Duncan is playing so much better this season than last. Perhaps it’s the weight he lost in the offseason. Maybe it’s the improved cast. Whatever the case, he’s in top form.
Maintaining his league-leading form over a long season is crucial for the Spurs. With Duncan playing this well, opposing teams must think long and hard about whether to double Tim Duncan. That decision, one that is out of the Spurs’ hands, goes a long way in determining San Antonio’s offense.
Adding one thing to another, the Spurs are a long way from their best basketball. But they’re moving in the right direction.
