Monday, November 30th, 2009...8:21 am
On the Five Game Winning Streak
The San Antonio Spurs defeated the Philadelphia 76es 97-89 last night, extending their winning streak to 5. The Spurs are now 9-6.
So far as winning streaks go, the current run is nothing to brag about. The Spurs have played 4 of 5 at home, beating Washington, Milwaukee, Golden State, Houston and Philadelphia. Prior to those five victories, San Antonio lost three in a row, and against playoff caliber competition. One could argue that that streak was more telling, that losses to Oklahoma, Dallas and Utah were more indicative of where the Spurs currently stand in Western conference pecking order.
The truth probably lies somewhere in between.
There are noteworthy points on each side of the argument, but it seems to me like the Spurs are ascending.
Richard Jefferson
The Spurs pessimist, certain to demur, will point to Richard Jefferson’s uneven play, wondering what the offseason fuss was all about. Jefferson has looked decidedly mediocre on most nights, despite a couple convincing early season performances. What’s the deal?
Unfortunately for the Spurs, the main concern with Jefferson is that he’s not impacting the game enough on the defensive end. His man defense is good, but not great. The Spurs consistently look to George Hill and Keith Bogans to guard the opposing team’s best perimeter players. Hill and Bogans relish the role of defensive stopper, and they also bring the goods. This is something the Spurs wanted from Richard Jefferson, and could still use, but have yet to see.
The worry here can’t be explained away by a lack of understanding. This is not a matter of Jefferson learning the system. This is a lack of defensive intensity.
It’s a pity for Jefferson, too. His offensive contribution might increase if he were more of a menace on defense. Simply put, he’s not playing poorly; he’s just not asserting himself at either end of the court. This is something Jefferson can improve now.
Defensively, it’s tough to award him more than a C.
On offense, Jefferson is in search of his niche with the Spurs, and we should expect him to take time finding it. RJ is not a particularly creative dribbler, and so his drives to the hoop depend on his ability to attack when the floor spacing bends in his favor. He’s kind of a Corey Maggette in the sense that he attacks the hoop straightaway. See Richard lower his head. See Richard drive to the hoop.
That’s not a bad thing. It’s just a matter of spacing and chemistry. Although, the Spurs would help Jefferson immensely if they could find him more often in transition.
He’s earned an incomplete on offense.
Jefferson’s lackluster defensive play highlights a lurking roster deficiency, one that is extremely difficult to quantify.
Wanted: More Grit
David Thorpe is fond of saying that energy is a skill. He’s right, and it’s helpful to remember that “intangibles” are unique to the skill sets of players and teams. Back when the Spurs were the defensive kings of the league-it’s a shame we have to couch such statements in the past tense-their team defense was gritty. Bruce Bowen and Robert Horry, for example, were physical players, not afraid to use their hands and hips on defense. Steve Nash was always one bump away from the scorers table.
Like it or not, good defensive teams are physical. The best two defensive teams I’ve watched this season, Boston and Charlotte, never tire of laying a body on the other bodies. When chesting guys off their cut-line isn’t effective, both teams are happy to straight push the opposition off course. Richard Jefferson needs to play with more grit. DeJuan Blair needs to learn grit. George Hill, Keith Bogans and Antonio McDyess are almost pestering, but need to take their defensive brattiness up a level.
Beginning to Board
The second area of concern for the Spurs has been rebounding, something we’ve repeatedly mentioned in this space. But the Spurs have turned the ship.
San Antonio started the season near the bottom of the league in terms of their offensive and defensive rebound rate, but they’re much improved. Their defensive rebound rate is near the top of the league, and they rank in the middle with regard to offensive boards. That’s not such a bad place for the Spurs, especially considering that they prefer transition defense to offensive boards. They actually won the battle of the boards by plus-5 during their 3-game losing streak. It’s a story fading to black.
Most of San Antonio’s losses this season-the recent three game skid included-were a tale of the team lacking energy, of not looking sharp. The team as a team is beginning to come into focus.
A Defense on the Mend
The first and most important place of focus is defense. The team played dreadful D over the course of the first half dozen games, but that’s no longer the case.
During their 5-game winning streak, San Antonio is beating opponents by 13.2 ppg. More impressively, the Spurs are holding opponents to 40.9% shooting. They’re doing a much better job of closing the lane and contesting shots than earlier in the season. The Spurs’ defense is solid trending toward fierce, but, as noted above, still lacks the requisite attitude of a top defensive team.
Tony Parker as Less Than Tony Parker
Neither Manu Ginobili nor Tony Parker are off to hot starts this season. Each player has nursed minor injuries, and neither is playing at his accustomed level of dominance. But this is an area where player efficiency ratings-especially those with a large sample size-are a help.
Manu Ginobili is an easy case. His current PER is 22.99. His average over the past 5 seasons is 23.19. In other words, when Manu is healthy, he’s capable of giving the Spurs the same boost toward a championship as in past seasons. He’s fragile, but resilient.
Tony Parker is out-of-sync. His current PER, 18.98, is down almost 5 points from last season. One should expect his per minute production to increase, and as that happens the Spurs’ already fifth ranked offense should improve too. John Hollinger projected Tony Parker to PER at 21.85 this season. That might be a smidgen high, but there is no reason to think Parker won’t end up closer to 22 than 18.
Here’s the point: the full-time return of Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili will improve the team. (I know, Captain Obvious strikes again.) But improvement is not simply a matter of their being on the court. The point is a little more subtle.
When Parker and Ginobili are playing, the Spurs are a better team. But it’s also true that when Parker and Ginobili are playing Parker and Ginobili are better. Their full-time return should allow each player to work his way to full-strength.
Best Bench in the NBA
So far as Jefferson, Parker and Ginobili are off to rough starts, the Spurs’ core is struggling. San Antonio’s bench, on the other hand, is remarkably good. It’s the best bench in the league, and mostly without its key cog. Matt Bonner is playing the best basketball of his career, George Hill is steady, but not sensational, and DeJuan Blair is a burst of energy whenever he steps onto the court.
The bench is not without issues, of course. Roger Mason Jr., for example, is slowly working his way out of a shooting slump. But on more than one occasion this season the reserves have carried the starters. If the bench can maintain its current level of play, the improved play of the final five will transform San Antonio into a unmistakable title contender.
Tim Duncan Still Dominant
The best thing about the first fifteen games of the season-the reason for the most optimism-is the play of Tim Duncan. Duncan is currently leading the Spurs in points (18.5), rebounds (10.8), and blocks (2.0). He’s third on the team in assists (3.7). The advanced player metrics suggest that Tim Duncan is one of the top 5-10 players in basketball, whether one considers PER (28.13, fourth in the league) or Adjusted PER (27.06, sixth in the league for players averaging over 30 minutes per game).
To say Tim Duncan is playing well this season is an understatement. He’s playing 6 points higher than his projected PER. And he’s doing so at less than 32 minutes per game. Some nights, like last night, players like DeJuan Blair give the Spurs the added luxury of giving their old warhorse rest. This is a fringe benefit to the team’s surging bench.
I’m not certain why Tim Duncan is playing so much better this season than last. Perhaps it’s the weight he lost in the offseason. Maybe it’s the improved cast. Whatever the case, he’s in top form.
Maintaining his league-leading form over a long season is crucial for the Spurs. With Duncan playing this well, opposing teams must think long and hard about whether to double Tim Duncan. That decision, one that is out of the Spurs’ hands, goes a long way in determining San Antonio’s offense.
Adding one thing to another, the Spurs are a long way from their best basketball. But they’re moving in the right direction.
36 Comments
November 30th, 2009 at 9:18 am
One thing that I noticed during the win streak is the aggressive play of Tony Parker. During the losing streak, TP seemed out of rhythm and too complacent to let other players do the work. The last 5 games he’s been picking his spots to attack the basket more and it’s translated beautifully.
I can’t quite figure out RJ. His offense seems that it will come when he’s more comfortable. At the moment it feels like he is worried about stepping on the big 3′s toes. The last few games though, he’s been cutting nicely off the ball.
So far, ‘Dyess has been wonderful. I don’t think that it’s a coincidence that we began this win streak when he got inserted into the starting lineup.
Lastly, the bench and Pop have done wonderfully in this win streak. Pop is willing to play the hot hand and it’s lived up well. During the Rockets game, Bonner wasn’t playing well, Pop kept Dyess in. When Blair picked up his game last night, Dyess got some extra rest. It’s wonderful to have some options at every position.
November 30th, 2009 at 9:21 am
I think an under-reported part of our season so far has been our schedule, where we seem to have two or three days off after every game.
I cannot remember a season where we have played so few games coming into december, and it seems the disjointed schedule has affected the players as well, case in point is our next game against the celtics on thursday after playing on sunday.
I know our team is old and could use the rest, but a day should be more than enough, i’m not asking for back to backs but this stop-start schedule has to have an effect on the cohesion and continuity of the team, especially with all the new faces.
November 30th, 2009 at 9:29 am
Great article Tim, and I second your thoughts on the importance of defensive “grit.”
I think McDyess has it. I suspect Bogans may, or may be capable of learning to perform with it in big games. I think Blair had it at the college level and is quickly learning it at the pro level. We already know Ginobili, Duncan, and Finley have it (Finley more so on the offensive side, with his clutch shots). Bonner does not seem to have it and may not be able to learn it, though I won’t rule it out completely. George Hill seems to already have a modicum of it, although he needs to prove himself capable of providing it in bigger doses in bigger games. Theo Ratliff has a shadow of it. Hairston and Haislip may be capable of it as well, but they need minutes to earn Pop’s (and our!) trust.
I’m more confident in this team now than I was when we were 4-6, but it is a long season, and dethroning the defending champions is (literally) a lofty goal. Here’s to hoping we have enough grit to do it.
November 30th, 2009 at 9:32 am
Gritty Defense : My contention with that point would be, I think, currently Georgie, Dyess, and Bogans are playing smart pestering defense without fouling for the most part depending on refs(though George had a few foul prone games). Smart pestering is good enough I think without taking it to more physical D with more chance of foul calls. While playing Celtics for instance, my only prayer is that Perkins doesn’t kill any of our guards driving to the hoop. I would rather we do not do that.
Your point regarding RJ is well made. He sure can bring more intensity and pestering to his D.
Regarding the bench, Blair has a long way to go in terms of p&r defense. But talking about Georgie, I think he is way more than just steady, he is almost close to sensational in my book. He has tenacity and is unafraid and is really learning fast game to game. Plus he is very composed. Other than some of his out of control drives to the hoop, he is making excellent decisions on the court! Pity, Mace was looking good with his shooting since the new puppy.
November 30th, 2009 at 9:33 am
Not only has our W5 streak come against patsies, it’s come against patsies whose starting bigs are out injured. No wonder Duncan has been scoring at will.
During the losing streak, Duncan was going on on one way too often and slowing down the offense.
I think there’s a connection here….
November 30th, 2009 at 9:35 am
Upside, upside, upside. The Spurs are 9-6 playing mediocre basketball. Despite the rough start and injuries they are 4-5 vs. .500+ teams. (I was surprised that Sacramento is .500.)
Upside - With Parker running the point, he is impacted the most trying to integrate all the new players. The more he plays with the new team, the better his turnover/assist ratio will be.
Upside - Richard Jefferson has been in mediocre mode since he was traded from New Jersey. Pop will get the best out of him over the course of the season. He has to re-learn the intensity of a championship squad.
Upside - Ginobili has time to get his confidence back. Once he is back in his groove, the Spurs will be scary dangerous.
Upside - Bogans seems a solid fit in the starting lineup. As he continues to master the Spurs defensive system, he could be a lockdown defender.
Upside - Dido for McDyess. He looks better every week on both sides of the ball.
Bonner and Finley are solid bench players. They were solid bench players last year too.
November 30th, 2009 at 10:04 am
[...] critical of Jordan Hill’s pre-game focus (SLAM Online) >>Another writer critical of Richard Jefferson’s defense (48 Minutes of Hell) >>NBA & ABA players who attended the University of Arizona [...]
November 30th, 2009 at 10:55 am
George Hill’s on ball defense is pretty good. However, I think his p/r defense is very suspect. He always seems to get stuck on the screen and never gets through. I’m sure he’ll learn how to in time, but he’s far from being a lockdown defender yet.
November 30th, 2009 at 11:35 am
I vaguely recall Duncan putting up big numbers and big minutes during a stretch in the early part of last season, when the team was ravaged by injuries- basically carrying the Spurs, and I think he’s doing it again; carrying the Spurs through the unavoidable transition from last year’s roster to the reworked roster of this season.
November 30th, 2009 at 11:41 am
I agree that the bench/role players look great, which is why I’m optimistic even with the slow start and .500ish record. With Hill, Finley, Bonner, Bogans, and Blair, doing exactly what they’re supposed to be doing, Spurs will be fantastic when the rest falls into place. Duncan’s playing well and healthy, and there’s no indication that Parker’s injury won’t clear up reasonably soon without long term effect. It’s going to be a good season for the Spurs.
November 30th, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Gotta think RJ will come around. So, so impressed with George Hill.
November 30th, 2009 at 2:02 pm
Good article. It’s amazing how a few home games against less than great opposition can turn things around a bit. This team needs time to gell and thumping a few bad teams gives them a little time and experience.
The bench so far this year is MILES ahead of where it was last year and Manu has really yet to play. Jefferson, Parker, and Ginobili have yet to really get off this season so you can imagine how good this team will be (if they continue to improve) come February or March.
I know there have been some Tony haters who have been wanting to trade him, but I really do think he is trying to transition his game from a 20/5 guy to a 15/8 kind of player. I believe he is attempting to be more of a distributor instead of a 20ppg scorer. His assists have been higher here in the last few games so I can appreciate his team first attitude.
It’s starting to become fun watching this team grow, but we’ve got Boston and Denver coming up so we can’t tiptoe through the pansies anymore. These should be some good tests to see how far this team has come in the last 8-10 games.
November 30th, 2009 at 2:34 pm
I agree with senorglory. I thought Duncan was an MVP consideration for the first half of the season for carrying the Spurs until the injury bug bit him on more than one occassion.
November 30th, 2009 at 3:35 pm
Great article. I don’t thing it can be emphasized enough how well Duncan is playing. He really does seem to have an extra kick to his step and Thank God he’s back to shooting his bank shot with good consistency.
My biggest concern was Tony. It just seems like he stopped attacking and was thinking too much. He seems to be settling down and is finally looking to get his. We need Parker being aggressive and being an offensive point to help create mismatch opportunities at more than one position (Duncan).
I’m still not giving up on RJ. He’s under performing, but there are still glimpses of what we might expect with a litle more time. Tim hit it on the head. We really have to get RJ involved in transition more. I know the SPURS are not traditionally a running team, but if we’re going to compete with the elites this year, we have to improve this phase of our game. Tony and Georgie are missing him on fast breaks and a few easy buckets for RJ really gets his confidence going.
We’re getting there. I expect a tough game against Boston. Believe it or not, our bench (especially Bonner) need to have a good game.
November 30th, 2009 at 3:42 pm
Now I want to see us win some against a good team with healthy big men. Duncan has been great lately, but he’s been scoring against injury-riddled front lines.
TP has been turning it over a lot too, seemingly more than in the past. He’s great at getting inside a thicket of opponents, but he’s been losing the ball a lot lately in that situation.
November 30th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
At some point, Keith Bogans is going to have to knock down a wide open shot on the offense end. Love his defense though.
November 30th, 2009 at 6:03 pm
I think it’s correct to focus on the defense because that’s a barometer of intensity and passion, which were in low supply to begin the season. Maybe fans put too much hope in RJ? Maybe he doesn’t know how to fit in? Whatever, he needs to play better for us to contend this year.
Also, hopefully Blair can continue his solid play from last game. Before that he had become lethargic and disinterested, yet as if a switch was turned, he came out and dominated like he did in preseason. Let’s hope that continues.
Also again, you are correct that Bonner is playing his best ever, though oddly it parallels the loudest cries to get rid of him. I still think he’s soft and could step up the intensity as much as anyone, but his shot is falling and he hasn’t crumbled since going to the bench, in fact I think he’s relishing the diminished responsibility.
Bonner, Blair, Manu, RMJ, and Hill make up a scrappy, high energy 2nd unit with a wide variety of skills, from shooting to rebounding to defense t the wizardry of Manu that ties it all together.
The season is getting more interesting, that’s for sure…
November 30th, 2009 at 9:25 pm
HEy, a win is a win is a win. I don’t care about who they beat. Would you rather they lossed against those subpar teams??
Besides, the Dallas and OKC game could have gone either way.
I’m not worried yet. The defense is getting there and once Manu is in a groove they will start to punish teams. Think about it they are 9-6 despite all the injuries.
The thing that concerns me is RJ’s offense. He has to be explosive. He had two great games when Duncan was out. So we know it was a good trade. I agree with some that say he doesn’t want to step on any toes. When Duncan was out it was easy for him to take charge. I think once he gets used to playing more with TD then the offense will become easier.
Another thing was said about his intensity. I agree with that aswell. He played how many meaningless seasons with the Bucks? You don’t just turn on intensity after playing all those games that meant nothing. He’ll come around, I hope.
November 30th, 2009 at 10:50 pm
If rj gets a C on defense then bonner gets a F- other teams automatically center their game plan on attacking bonner when he’s in the game.
November 30th, 2009 at 11:01 pm
I remember a few seasons ago when we first picked up Finley, Pop told him a starting position wasn’t guaranteed because of his “big name” and he needed to earn it. At first he did. However I think over the 08 and 09 seasons Finley, and Bonner, took their starting positions for granted. When Pop benched them this season it was a wake up call, especially for Finley who had a couple sub 10 minutes games.
When minutes are earned, not given, it raises the intensity and play for every one.
November 30th, 2009 at 11:22 pm
RJ’s the most complicated story. He has the most expectations on him.
If you looked at his numbers from a statistical stand point, he’s giving a pretty good stat line, especially if you remove his first two horrible shooting games.
With that said, I do not think Pop has figured out how to use RJ. I think this is why RJ tries to defer because I don’t believe his role is fully set. I think Pop is playing the wait and see approach.
Also, I think Pop has been a little easier on the defense because of the emergence of Hill and Bogans. It seems like Pop is trying to have RJ get his offense going before his defense. Having said that, I’ve seen many times where Pop has pulled RJ out and reviewed the last play with him if he was involved in a big mistake.
Perhaps as the team gets to know one another, Pop will turn up the heat on RJ now that the team looks to be pushing forward, rather than falling backwards.
December 1st, 2009 at 11:09 am
Next 3 games vs Celtics, Nuggets, and Jazz will be a barometer as to where the Spurs stand. Winning 5 in a row against non- championship caliber teams might help with chemistry but otherwise is insignificant.
I’ll be pleased if we can go 2-1.
December 1st, 2009 at 6:25 pm
All good lots of upsides lets just hope the team can come together as expected.
@Hobson13 I think your spot on Tony doesn’t have to score 20ppg every night and is learning to pass more sometimes he does look out of sinc for this reason.
As always I’d like to see more of Hairston/Haslip and Mahinmi to see if they can do what we brought them here to do.
Any reason’s why they’re not playing?
December 1st, 2009 at 8:26 pm
Mostly because they arent needed, if i had to guess. Playing 15 deep would be completely insane, and the team wouldnt be able to gel. If i had to guess, if they are still around next year it will be their year (although it’s likely Haislip and Ian will have to fight Splitter for minutes). Finley will (likely) be gone and that will open up room for Hairston. This year, though, i doubt they are part of our 12 best players.
December 1st, 2009 at 9:11 pm
RJ can show intensity when he’s put in a place to actually perform, like in that one road game early in the year (was it Portland when he threw down that monstrous dunk on Oden… I think?)
Anyway, once the stars returned he took a back seat, just like Hill did last year. It may seem odd to compare RJ to Hill but their learning curve to the team seems somewhat similar. In fact, this is often the biggest problem with new players to our team - they want to fit in and play the team game, yet the fans and probably the coaches are hoping for them to play more assertively. This repeating situation seems to be a hidden kink in the system because players want to feel like they belong before they are emboldened to assert themselves.
Don’t worry about the ego. We need the id.
December 1st, 2009 at 10:14 pm
I see a lot of people are a bit down on RJ. The problem is NOT that he hasn’t been playing well since being a Spur. The problem is that he has never been a good player, whether this year or year’s past. I said it over and over in the offseason and was flamed a few times on this forum for it, but RJ is an AVERAGE nba player and a bad fit for the Spurs. His defense is bad and has always been bad. On the offensive side, he is a VOLUME shooter, an inefficient player. His numbers were good last year because he was the focal point of the offense, or one of them. He doesn’t fit in with the Spurs, because in SA he is a 4th option at best.
Anyone thinking that RJ is really a great player, just that he is not playing that great right now, is underer a great misapprehension. RJ is an average NBA player. Expect mediocrity from him and you won’t be disappointed.
December 1st, 2009 at 10:53 pm
Kaveh,
of course if you expect mediocrity from him you won’t be disappointed. If we expect the spurs to lose every game we wouldn’t be disappointed either.
Rj is not and never will be the best player on a contender. He’s best when he’s the 3rd option, as seen with the two nets teams. He will do fine here in SA.
Playing with new guys means you have to figure preferences out with each other. Not every trade works out like the gasol trade. I can’t count how many times RJ would cut and other Spurs would turn the ball over because they were expecting something else. Chemistry matters, and regardless of his shots, RJ isn’t entirely on the same page yet.
December 1st, 2009 at 11:14 pm
Kaveh,
I don’t think anyone expects RJ to score 20ppg or morph into Kobe, but it is obvious that he has not found his way on the offensive end. In the last 4 games he has taken 7,8, 5, and 9 shots. Thats ridiculous if you also take into account that Ginobili has been out. Over the last 4 games George Hill has taken as many shots!! Mason has taken more!! When Duncan and Parker were gone, and Manu and RJ were running the show, he was a stat sheet stuffer and he shot the ball well. This leads me to believe that he is either being too unselfish or is not being aggressive enough. I personally believe its the latter.
I agree that RJ is somewhat of a volume shooter, but he is on a much better team than in the past. A team that can create open shots for him instead of him being on a pitiful Bucks team where he had to do it all. He should be a much more efficient shooter this season compared to previous ones and I think he will once he finds his way.
The RJ situation reminds me of the Brent Barry situation a few years ago. Barry was a downtown bomber, but his first year was a bit rocky and he always seemed to be looking over his shoulder when he missed a shot. Finally Pop told him to just chill and shoot the damned ball. After a while, Barry played good defense (at least by his standards) knocked down his shots, and became a critical component to the team.
December 1st, 2009 at 11:29 pm
RJ has been unable to jump, at least off his left leg, for the past week or so. Don’t know if it’s injury or what. The first time I saw him go up for a dunk and fail to clear the rim I figured he jumped wrong. But it’s happened 3 or 4 times now, including once at Houston and once in the 76ers game.
December 2nd, 2009 at 1:42 am
I think Hobson’s comparison of RJ to Brent Barry is apt - Pop can’t really mold his defensive play as if he were a rookie. It takes some time for a veteran to develop the good defensive habits of a model Spurs forward, or even the scrappy intensity exhibited by our less coventionally solid guards. As long as he works on it, he’s doing his job.
As far as asserting himself on offense, maybe we should hire S. Jax as his life coach.
December 2nd, 2009 at 2:37 pm
here’s a thought: i figure one big factor we lost last season’s playoff series was the poor play and shooting of bonner, mason and finley. and sure, those guys are shooting well now, but are they gonna disappear again in the playoffs when defensive intensities are higher and their looks aren’t quite as open?
December 2nd, 2009 at 4:32 pm
I know we were not supposed to beat the Lakers this season (nobody can do that) but we were supposed to challenge them… I really thought we would be the 2nd best team in the NBA this year. I don’t know what is going on… I still have to believe by the end of the season nobody besides LA will have a better team.
December 2nd, 2009 at 5:37 pm
Im glad to see Kaveh is down on Rj. Hopefully the trend of will continue, as in last week he pointed out how bad McDyess is and that we shouldn’t expect much from him. McDyess only dropped 15 and 14 that night.
December 2nd, 2009 at 8:42 pm
Excellent point bigtee. I’m looking forward to the matchup tomorrow night, especially hoping to see Hill try to stop Rondo. If Kirk Heinrich (Chicago) can do it, i bet he can. They almost brawled last year and Rondo went running when it got too intense. I dont see Hill backing down.
December 3rd, 2009 at 6:31 am
[...] invoquer le temps d’adaptation aux systèmes pour expliquer ces absences défensives mais le blog 48 minutes of Hell rappelle qu’en défense, la qualité principalement attendue est l’intensité et Richard donne [...]
December 3rd, 2009 at 6:55 am
We just gone from second to third in a five-gear box. The improvement is apparent, but there’s a lot more to go.
Legler will regret his hubris.
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