Playoff Scenarios: The Final Edition

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Ed. Note: Playoff seeding is very complicated. If you think I made a mistake, say so in the comments sections and I’ll correct it as quickly as possible. That being said, I believe everything written below is accurate.

Today is the final day of the regular season. As things currently stand, spots 2-7 in the Western Conference are still up for grabs. The highest the Spurs can finish is third. The lowest is fifth. A few days ago I wrote a piece (#8) for the Daily Dime discussing the possible outcomes but let’s go over the all the different scenarios one last time.

First and foremost, if we lose, we will be the fifth seed. If Houston loses and Portland wins, we will face Houston in the first round. If both win, both lose or just Portland loses, we will face the Blazers.

For the rest of the article, every scenario is based upon the premise that we win this evening.

If Houston wins, they are the Southwest division champs. After their victory over New Orleans on Monday, they drew even with the Spurs’ record against the division (both teams are now 9-6) and hold the tie-breaker (wins against playoff teams in own conference). If Portland loses and Houston wins, we will face Portland in the first round as the 4th seed. If Portland wins, we will face them as the fifth seed.

If Houston loses, the Spurs are Southwest division champs and the 3 seed. Even if Portland wins, we will win the tie-breaker in that instance because division champ is the initial tie-breaker; head-to-head record comes second.

No matter what happens, we will not face New Orleans in the first round. The Hornets are currently in 6th; the Mavericks in 7th (both with a record of 49-32). The only way we can move into third is with a Hornets loss and a Mavericks win (Dallas faces Houston tonight). In that instance the Mavs would move into 6th, setting up a first round match-up with the Spurs.

So, ladies and gentlemen: Who would you rather face? The Houston Rockets, the upstart Blazers or our old nemesis, the Dallas Mavericks?

  • Latin_D

    Can’t we face the Suns instead? Please? Oh well, then I choose the Mavs.

    It’s sad, because my pick was the Hornets. Right now they’re looking off-balance - although I might be singing a different tune after tonight’s game, of course.

  • David R.

    Also, it is interesting that unless Houston loses and the Spurs win we will get the Lakers in the second round. That being said I think that we want to win and also hope for a Mavs win. Not only do the Spurs avoid the Lakers for an additional round (making an upset by Houston or Portland possible), but we also will either get Denver or New Orleans (at home) in the second round. That just seems like a much easier road to the WCF.

    I think that this team needs two good rounds of adjusting to playoff basketball sans Manu and George Hill to really mesh. Maybe Pop will get his lineups in order and a rythem can develop. Parker and Duncan will play like they always do in the playoffs and Mason can get fully un-slumped and Gooden can continue to get comfortable with the defensive schemes.

    And maybe Portland and Houston win and the playoffs are more of a trial by fire.

  • Kevin

    Definitely the Mavs. I live in Dallas, and I actually miss the Spurs/Mavs rivalry. I also miss putting those punks in their place, so beating them would be fun too.

  • Will

    I wish we could play the Rockets. Mavs and Blazers don’t sound too good for a first round match-up. On the other hand looking at the whole playoff picture the 3rd seed would be better because of either Denver or the Hornets in the 2nd round.

  • Jimbo

    Anyone but the Blazers. The Blazers are EXACTLY the kind of super-athletic, long-armed, young team that would give the Spurs fits.

  • http://www.themilkcarton.com Tyler

    The Mavs no question. The Rockets are playing REALLY well right now, even with the fear that Yao isn’t 100% on his foot.

    Also, I don’t think anybody wants to play the Blazers, even if said team has home-court advantage. The Blazers could be this year’s Golden State Warriors; upstart team that most people think is a bit too young to do anything, but really is peaking at just the right time to win a round (or two).

    I would much rather play the Mavs. They’re our nemeses, but that would only give us more of a reason to perform well. Also, if we win that series, we would play the winner of Denver/New Orleans. Denver would be a pretty favorable second round matchup, as they clearly don’t have the bodies inside to be able to deal with us.

  • ruth bader ginobili

    I’d say Dirk and Aldridge are harder matchups than Yao. But Tony could score at will against the Blazers’ and Mavs’ point gurads, but not against Houston.
    I’ll just pretend that I really wanted whatever scenario ends up happening.

  • Andres

    I think for playoff success Spurs would prefer to face the Mavs, the “easiest” way to the conference finals goes through Dallas.

  • Greg

    I agree. I think the Rockets are the best match up for us. Slow, low scoring, grind it out kind of games. Although I don’t think it would be too physical of a series, especially for Timmy if Yao guards him. And that would be important. But I agree that facing the Lakers in the 2nd round isn’t exactly a great scenario either.

  • Jose

    Spurs should be praying they get the Mavs. It they get Houston or Portland they are done.

    Portland is too, quick and young. Something the Spurs should address in the offseason.

    Houston has a mix of savvy vets, and young legs. The Rockets also play good D.

  • Dylan

    I’m not sure if anyone here listens to Bill Simmon’s podcast, but on the episode yesterday he discussed this exact issue with Ric Bucher and Marc Stein. They weren’t as optimistic about the Spurs, naturally, but they had some interesting things to say.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/simmons/index

  • SpurredOn

    Give me Dallas. 3 of the 4 games this season had no Manu so that helps with preperation. None had Gooden so that’s a new matchup to exploit. Plus, this is the playoffs, not some regular season “who knows where everyones mind is” game. TP can do to Kidd what Paul did in last year’s first round. Dallas is not physical and now counts on some young atheltic guys that may become frustrated with the physicality and pressure. Not saying it would be easy, but I see a 5-6 game series with less physical wear on the bodies and minds than Portland or Houston provide. There are reasons to like facing Houston as well but they defend much better and I’d rather have the guarantee that either they or Portland would be the Lakers’ 2nd rd opponent. That would surely wear them down and provides the best chance to knock them out early.

    I say #3 seed is best for the above reasons plus missing LA in the 2nd round and the matchup I really love: Denver in round 2. That team does not have the maturity, defense or mental toughness to beat the Spurs in a seven game series.

    Go Spurs Go! Either way, we need tonight’s game.

  • Dirk

    Bring it punks

  • ChillFAN

    Who should we hope to see in round one? The Mavericks. (I agree with the five solid previous votes for Dallas, and the other three “half-votes” who conceeded that it’s all about staying away from the Lakers.)

    Excellent comments. We’ll have a fight on our hands with any team.
    Jose, I’m not sure I share your pessimism v the Rockets and the Blazers.

    Maybe a theory I have needs revision because of the parity in the West bracket over the past two years, but: You should pick the first round opponent that most expects to lose:

    That’s the Mavericks, whose frustrated fans have already left for the Rangers. Cuban can’t wait to blow the team up. But I think the Rockets and Blazers are also just as ready w/their post-series excuses of blaming Yao&Battier/no-Tmac and inexperience, respectively.

  • Will

    So basically we should cheer for Dallas and the Spurs (of course) tonight.

  • J.J. Barea

    I’ll be waiting

  • Brandon Bass

    Here comes the boom

  • Jerry Stackhouse

    I’m coming back to serve you wimps a full plate of Stackhouse

  • NickyDubs

    Mavs.

  • Jason Terry

    Ready for another cheapshot Finley??

  • ThatBigGuy

    Mavs, Blazers, then Rockets. The Mavs know they can’t beat us because we own them mentally. We beat the young, athletic, upstart Hornets last year, I think we can do the same against the Blazers. The Rockets are just rock solid in all facets of the game, they are the most difficult match-up for us.

  • http://www.trailblazers.com Brandon Roy

    We want the Spurs.

  • Jeremy

    I say bring on the Blazers. I know they are young and talented and have given us trouble, but they are also the kind of team that is inexperienced and I could see have a hard time adjusting to the playoff atmosphere. Dallas always seems to play up to our level and New Orleans can be tough. Who cares, bring em on.

  • ChillFAN

    What, Josh Howard is too high to chime in? Stack, great to hear from you, I thought you were dead. Any Texas series would be fun, but the Rockets are long overdue for a Spurs-style playoff beat down.

  • GMT

    Mavs! Too bad Hill won’t be able to play against them. He did very well against them.

  • SpurredOn

    GMT - Maybe the Mavs are the perfect opponent for this excact reason. Pop will see all the minutes Hill played vs them in the reg season and know he has familiarity. So Pop can feel more comfortable giving him matchup minutes… Say maybe some chasing around Terry? Or Bereja? Could be a blessing in disguise for Hill and we fans.

  • http://jacemannba.blogspot.com Jaceman

    The obvious answer is Dallas. I think by and far they are the weakest and softest team in the NBA as they don’t have any major threats that can tide them over. Against a team full of jumpshooters and no one that really takes over games consistently, I think Pop can tinker and finalize his rotations and how to work in everyone effectively.

  • http://jacemannba.blogspot.com Jaceman

    Amend: Dallas is the weakest and softest team in the Western Conference playoffs.

  • Navin

    Nice ChillFan!

  • Will

    Where I am right now (Argentina) they would only show Dallas vs Houston, so I had to watch that game and root for Dallas. Which was… bad. I feel spoiled now. Of course I would have felt the same rooting for Houston 😉 But in any case the Spurs got #3 so I guess the sacrifice of having to cheer for the Mavs for one night is excused - I get at least 4 games to forget about it 😀