Pop Culture, Vol. 5

by

LMA2

We’ve shied away from the traditional recaps you can find all over the interwebs, but we still have a few thoughts after each game. For more as they happen, be sure to follow 48MoH on Twitter. You’ll find our post-game grades in emoji form there.

Trevor Zickgraf

Going 3-0 against three potential playoff teams on the road, even if they’re Eastern Conference playoff teams, would’ve been impressive. Alas, Bradley Beal made an amazing move in order to make a difficult shot and the Spurs will return home 3-2 instead of 4-1. It’s really not that big of a deal. You really can’t say they deserved to win this game. First Washington jumped to a 19-2 lead to start the game. The Spurs figured some things out, came roaring back and then let their guard down a bit and let the Wizards regain some confidence before halftime. Closing time featured some missed shots from Leonard. Shots he certainly can make, but he didn’t and that’s OK. All of the things that happened tonight are OK. It just shows the Spurs are still polishing this gem of a roster they’ve put together. More proof that this season might have a little bit different of a process? The Spurs were playing their third road game in four nights and Pop still played everyone regular minutes (Tim Duncan was the lowest starter with 27).

Signs of encouragement are everywhere still. Kawhi is a monster plain and simple. Tony Parker got things going tonight, showing that consistency may not be there but he’s going to have some really nice nights. Aldridge is clearly still figuring things out, but the shots he and the Spurs want to take are there and they’re going to fall on a consistent basis eventually. Lastly, can I count on everyone’s support if I slowly and quietly start banging the “Manu For 6th Man Of The Year” drum? It’s a soft banging. Nothing too noisy. Yet.

Matthew Tynan

Take a guess at what LaMarcus Aldridge is shooting from mid-range this season.

Just an awesome 26 percent.

The Spurs’ newest acquisition is something of a polarizing player, in that he shoots a LOT of mid-range jumpers — 788 attempts from that area last year, to be exact. The entire Rockets team took 732 during the 2014-15 season. Total.

And that’s the thing about Aldridge. The mid-range game has begun to head the way of the dodo in recent years, as modern analytics have correctly identified it as the least efficient shot in basketball. Which makes sense. The farther you are from the basket, the tougher it is to make a shot, so why not just step back a bit and make it worth three points?

Chances are, if you’re reading this website, you’re already well aware of the statistics. Like, I’m explaining to you how to solve 2 + 2 = x. So here’s the thing: Aldridge is going to keep shooting long 2s, and you’re going to like it. Well, you may not, but regardless, he’s going to keep shooting them.

But the mid-range game is still a weapon. Hell, Tony Parker made a career out of being able to hit that jumper off a screen. As offenses have gone to a more “rim or 3-point line or bust” mentality, so have defenses. The focus has drifted toward protecting the paint and stretching out to defend the deep ball. Defensive closeouts hardly even exist anymore. That simple basketball tenet is being replaced with the “fly-by and recover” technique, aimed to force 3-point shooters in a few steps.

My point is — and sorry for the tangent — the mid-range area is a spacious playscape these days, and by acquiring LMA and replacing guys like Marco Belinelli, the Spurs are zigging a bit while most of the NBA is zagging. Aldridge is shooting 27.5 percent on “open” or “wide open” shots taken more than 10 feet from the basket, per SportVu data; he shot 42.8 percent from the field in the same situations last season, and a freaky 47.3 percent the season before. That gap is going to close sooner rather than later.

The offense has gone through lulls at various points during the first five games, and this is a big reason why. We expected these growing pains, though.

  • Tyler

    Ya hit the nail on the head - LA is simply not making shots. Per vorped.com, LA is a sizzling 1/10 from the top of the key.

    Even despite the offensive struggles, SA lead by 6 point with 5 minutes to go against both Washington and OKC. To me, that’s a positive sign for things to come.

    But how about the defense? Could it actually be better?

  • Justin

    Look we get it…Kawhi is a monster, Tim is GOAT, Tony will have his nights, Manu is still such a joy to watch.

    Can we actually talk technical basketball on here again? When are one of you guys going to address the elephant in the room, or not in the room anymore? The key to the Beautiful game was the floor spacing and open shots it created. With the loss of Tiago/Baynes, the Spurs no longer have the most important piece of the puzzle which was the big man who crashed to the rim on every single pick and roll. This made teams protect the front of the rim, creating a defensive rotation and skip pass for an open look or another rotation. These spurs are now a pick and pop team, relying more on iso and individual plays opposed to motion offense or pick and roll. The spacing goes to crap and you’ll see all year long, minimal points in the paint opportunities as well as a lower 3 pt fg percentage.

    The only player on our team who has any roll in his game, is Boban, and he may need to be used much more sooner in order for defenses to have to collapse or at least stay honest in their defensive assignment of protecting the rim on the roll man. This simply isn’t the game of LMA or West, and I was wondering if Pop would try to program Duncan to taking on this role, but he stops at the top of the circle for a 19 ft jumper.

    Just my thoughts..

  • BirdsDecision

    Never thought about Tiago and Baines as spacers, but that makes sense. I just think that the early ‘struggles’, if you can call them that, are a function of not having a 4th quarter rotation down yet. It’s going to be hard to figure it out. With three big men that seem like they almost have to be on the floor to close game (Duncan, Aldridge, and Diaw) I think it’s natural to have some figure-it-out time. I also think that the Spurs, when Duncan would demand a double team, used to play a little more isolation ball. If Kawhi and Aldridge start demanding doubles on a regular basis, would isolation, then passing out of doubles, be an offensive plan with teeth? Difference doesn’t always mean deficit, and the fun little secret about “Spurs Basketball” is that it doesn’t actually exist, the team has changed quite a lot over the years based on age and skill set.

  • Tyler

    I don’t necessarily agree that we’ve lost the “roller” part of the equation, at least with the starters. For example TD can (and will) be every bit as good as Splitter was at rolling to the rim. He’s just as athletic (even now) as Splitter, plus he’s much longer.

    I think the struggles we’re seeing is simply a function of adding a much more dynamic player to the equation and figuring out how to use him. In many ways, the offense with Splitter was simple - you knew every screen Splitter set was going to be followed by a roll to the rim, and it worked. Now, with the added versatility comes more option. And with more options, at least early on, I think you’re seeing more mistakes.

    The goal of almost all good offenses is to move the defense from side to side; to create seems that compromise the defense so that the ball can get into the paint. Given time, I think SA’s starters have a chance to be every bit as good as they’ve ever been. There is more versatility, shooting and athleticism than any Spurs team before it. I see no reason to believe this offense can’t be a top 5 unit.

  • Tyler

    True. re: “Spurs Basketball” = whatever gives you the best chance to win. Pop certainly doesn’t care about style. He’d be happy winning 57 games even if the score was 60-59 every night.

  • Justin

    Cheers Tyler. I was hoping at the beginning of the year that TD would fill the Splitter role, because he’s so much better. But I honestly think it’s a programming thing. Euro bigs roll instinctively, American bigs pop, especially LMA and West. TD usually doesn’t make it past the free throw line if he “rolls” this creating such a logjam and killing the spacing.

    What made the Spurs great from 02-09 was such great individual play from The big 3. What made the Spurs great from 11-15 was the motion offense and the beautiful game. Are we watching a shift back to early Spurs days, accompanied by lots of low percentage mid range jumpers and less breaking down of defenses through motion? I hope not.

    Just watch over the next few games how many times our screener fouls up the spacing by jamming up at the free throw line. I’m curious to see the changes myself

  • Tyler

    The spacing will get better - there’s too much versatility for it not to. SA has too many guys that are too good from too many different areas.

    One other thing I forgot to mention. With more pick and pops, you should have more chances for the second big or Kawhi to get a good, quick duck in the heart of the paint. I expect to see much more of that.

    Also, my biggest complaint so far on offense has been how far each big man has been forced to catch the ball on the block, LA especially. And while he’s probably more comfortable from midrange, I think he could do more damage by not only catching it deeper, but being more decisive and going quicker. He has a natural cadence, meaning he catches, takes a little time, surveys the floor, and then goes into his backdown/turn around jumper. I think he could keep guys off balance better by mixing it up - normal routine one time down, quick move off the catch next time, etc. It’s just something to watch. I’m sure as he gets more comfortable and has a better idea of where and when he’s going to get the ball, not only will he be better, but the unit as a whole should be much better.

    And as much as we talk about the offensive struggles, we’re pretty good already defensively! LA has been much better than advertised on that end.

  • jon walters

    Manu is no longer the closer = there isn’t really a reliable closer = the Spurs will lose a lot of close games they used to win = they are overrated. I see this team winning right around 50 games and going out quietly from the playoffs. Manu really meant THAT MUCH to the team and he isn’t the player he once was.

  • fkj74

    Jon we have closers . who is to be “the closer” is an open question. Some nights KL, some LA, also TP or TD or Manu. Basically we would be 5-0 if LA was hitting at his normal rate. Team is fine and the defense looks good if we are not turning the ball over, usually unforced. Go Spurs!

  • cohenbc1

    Couldn’t disagree more about Manu. You think he was the “closer” the last few years? If so, in what way has he stopped being it? In these first five games he’s played his best ball in years. His PER is 25! He’s shooting 53% from the field and 47% from 3!

    But I don’t think he’s been the “closer” since maybe 2011. Then it was Parker for a couple years, and in the championship season the system itself became the closer.

  • jon walters

    I agree completely that he has been great so far, but his minutes are so limited now. And I also hope I am totally wrong about the Spurs. In 2014 we were so good that we didn’t need closing, very few of the playoff games were even close. But I just couldn’t help but wonder in the two games we have lost what would have happened if we had the 30 year old Manu instead of the 38 year old one. He wasn’t even in the game down the stretch against OKC. This from someone who I thought was the best finisher in the league a few years ago.

  • brunostrange

    I was having a similar discussion on another blog. There is no “Spurs basketball,” stylistically speaking, though some believe the Spurs’ Beautiful Game is “Spurs basketball.” The style of play of the past 3-4 years was adopted because it gave SA the best chance to win. Before then, bruising defense and feeding Tim on the post was the name of the game. Obviously we’re morphing into something new again. “Spurs basketball” is simply what puts the team in the best position to win given the available personnel.

    I read a lot of griping about what’s wrong with the team (not from your comment, just in general), but come on - we’re five games into a season with a new roster that is going to take time to gel. Did anyone seriously think that they’d come out firing on all cylinders? If we’re having these conversations in February, I’ll be worried. Right now, it’s too soon.

    One note about the new 48MoH: I was an initial supporter of the new direction, but I dunno anymore. These Pop Culture bits are pretty much the same day in day out, and there’s very little depth to the content (the idea was more substantial content, no?). If the publishers really wish to go into a new, less conventional direction - they need to go all-in. This seems half-hearted. If this continues, don’t be surprised if most of your readership bails by the end of the season.

  • BirdsDecision

    I agree fully with what you’re saying about the Spurs changing style. As a Spurs fan my biggest worry is about Duncan leaving (in what? 4or 5 years, right?). The consistent part of the equation is Duncan’s versatility and leadership. What happens when things change and they need LA to guard 5’s? Or, if they need him to play traditional back to the basket style? Will he be talented enough and willing enough to make the changes? I hope so, whatever those changes are, but who knows what this looks like in a few years. A friend was arguing that TD is like the 6th most important player on the team, I’m a little bit of a nutty TD fan, so I countered with a worry/guess that the Spurs will win 50 games in every full season TD played in (is this fact?), and could loose 50 the year after he retires. Just a silly internet message board comment, but that’s what we’re here for.

  • Justin

    Bruno, couldn’t agree more! Cheers

  • MarkBarton

    C’mon 48 Minutes. Pull out of your funk. I like these recaps and you have some terrific writers. I know it’s hard to keep going but you gotta keep adding new content of you’re gonna go the way of Grantland.

  • Ryan McShane

    The Spurs starters have their old Spurs problems…. FANTASTIC defense, and middling offense.

    This is kind of a surprise for me - I thought the Aldridge/Splitter swap would be a drop on D and an improvement on O. Here’s why -

    The Spurs DON’T HAVE ANYONE PLAYING CENTER ON OFFENSE! Combine that with Kawhi’s vocalized need to score more often, and we have a real problem.

    The Spurs are starting three players with excellent moves power forwards usually make - backing down defenders with their back to the basket. Tim Duncan, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Kawhi Leonard. And they have four decent to excellent midrange shooters - Parker, Duncan, Aldridge, and Leonard. What ends up happening on so many possessions is that there are four guys running around the free throw line and Danny Green is waiting for someone to throw him the ball. Offenses can just have Danny’s defender hedge towards the paint to help. If his defender gets lost in the scrum, another defender can just pop out to Danny to defend the three if they need to.

    This would all be different if the Spurs had someone playing center and had either Kawhi or Aldridge spotting up on the three point line. What makes this difficult is that Aldridge still hasn’t found his role and Kawhi’s asking for a bigger piece of the pie.

    Alternatively, they need a player like Belinelli or Korver in the starting line-up to shoot threes coming off of screens. Danny Green is excellent at catching and shooting threes, but when he has to move a ton before the shot, he’s not so great. Belinelli, on the other hand, thrived the crazier the shot got. Neal did too. Patty Mills might be the closest approximation to those two, but his lack of size on D is problematic.

    Fortunately, the bench looks great and the starters’ D is amazing. They’re essentially tied for second in the league with the Golden State Warriors in defensive efficiency. And every one of the starters is great at moving the ball and their assist rate is fourth in the league. The problems these Spurs are facing are good problems to have and can only improve as Aldridge gets settled into a role and Kawhi/Aldridge finds ways to contribute on offense that don’t sacrifice Danny Green’s efficiency.

  • Ryan McShane

    This should all be taken in the context of comparisons to the Warriors. The Warriors have matched the Spurs on D but greatly outpace them on O.

  • brunostrange

    Agree. And though the Warriors are playing spectacularly right now, we all know the NBA is about the match-ups. Spurs have matched up pretty well against GS in the past; curious to see how the addition of LMA fits into the equation.

  • Ryan McShane

    The Spurs are like the Grizzlies in that they can grind it out on D, but their basketball IQ is just so much higher, they have better offense, and they have more depth. It will be interesting to see how the Spurs match up with the Warriors… but we’re going to have to wait until January 25th!