Popovich and McClinton

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Spurs fans are delirious right now. DeJuan Blair is a beast. We couldn’t be happier to have him. His granddad, or some clever imposter, kindly left a message in our comments. Welcome to the lovefest.

If someone asks what effect trading for Richard Jefferson and drafting DeJuan Blair has on a fanbase, the answer is that people start seeing Rasheed Wallace more often than the sasquatch.  Even if the rumors are true, I’m sure it’s nothing more than Timmeh and Sheed getting in a little fishing.

We’re all a little giddy. Why not pour a little more kerosene on the fire?

Nando De Colo is a solid player, and one that could contribute to the team down the road. But I want to turn our attention to Jack McClinton, a stud shooter that could get lost in the self-congratulatory frenzy.

Maybe the Spurs do moneyball. If Blair had not slid to 37, R.C. Buford has indicated the Spurs would have selected McClinton with that pick. Buford made a striking assertion: Jack McClinton was the best shooter in the draft.  The numbers bear this out. Luke Winn writes:

A league scouting director whom I trust — partly because he insisted that UCLA’s Luc Richard Mbah a Moute was the biggest second-round sleeper last year, even though this scout’s team didn’t get him — told me last week to watch out for Miami’s Jack McClinton. He’s an undersized shooting guard (just under 6-1 in shoes), but there are teams that believe he can become an instant-offense guy off the bench, somewhat like Eddie House has provided for the Celtics.

I used Synergy’s data to look at how complete a scorer McClinton was last season compared to other shooting/combo guards in the draft, breaking down the chart into five categories: PPP on guarded catch-and-shoot situations, PPP on unguarded catch-and-shoot situations, shots off the dribble, shots taken off screens and shots in one-on-one situations.

There’s some evidence here that McClinton is a legit prospect, if he can overcome his lack of height. He’s by far the best catch-and-shoot prospect in unguarded situations, at 1.80 PPP. On a roster with a star who consistently draws help on drives, McClinton could play a valuable role by merely spreading out defenses and knocking down wide-open threes. He’s no slouch in guarded catch-and-shoot situations, either, ranking fourth in that group at 1.07 PPP. (The best contested shooter is North Carolina’s Wayne Ellington, at 1.31 PPP, and that fact may help him get a first-round contract.)

What sets McClinton apart from the rest of this group is his ability to efficiently create his own shot, as he’s the only player above 1.00 PPP in shots taken off the dribble or in one-on-one situations — meaning defenses will have to respect his driving ability on the perimeter.

You can find a chart here that suggests Jack McClinton is a better shooter than Stephen Curry and James Harden.

But what intrigues me more about McClinton is the endorsement he got from Popovich, sans Buford. In his post-draft press conference, Buford said the Spurs fell in love with McClinton not just because he could shoot, but because he was the best defender they worked out.

Maybe that’s post-draft hyperbole. But let’s remember something: Popovich has a tremendous eye for point guards (in this case, a “specialty” guard). His eyes trusted a teenage Tony Parker, saw something of a scam in Beno Udrih, and identified an unheralded combo guard from IUPUI as a Day 1 contributor.  The Spurs don’t help anyone by kidding themselves about McClinton’s ability to defend. If after two workouts they saw him as a lockdown defender, I’ll bet they’re correct.

Assuming McClinton makes the team, the Spurs should have great depth and diversity in their backcourt. It will be difficult to find minutes for everybody, but a foursome of Parker-Hill-Mason-Ginobili looks great, especially if Michael Finley and Jack McClinton have their back. If Finley doesn’t pick up his deal, Malik Hairston or a player like Austin Nichols can occupy the 6th guard spot.  The backcourt looks solid. In fact, it projects out as one of the best in the league.

The Spurs know what kind of players compliment their system and core. After the 2008 Finals, Popovich and crew decided they needed to move beyond offensively-challenged guards. Watching Eddie House play effectively against the Lakers sparked an interest amongst the Spurs brass. They began their search for an instant offense specialty guard, and it ran through Jannero Pargo, Salim Stoudamire, Blake Ahearn and DeMarcus Nelson. Pargo took another contract, Stoudamire suffered injury, Ahearn didn’t pan out, and Nelson was snatched from Austin by the Bulls. If McClinton shows up as a bulldog defender and knocks down shots, he’ll stick. The Spurs will have their Eddie House. We’ll know soon enough.

  • CGD

    Great pick-up indeed, especially in the 50 range.

    I’m a first time poster. I want to take the chance to give you guys your do for writing this wonderful blog. A few sports columnist at a certain south Texas newspaper could learn a few things about how to write well researched pieces.

  • Dani

    If McClinton showed so much promise why didn’t other teams snatch him before SA’s 51st pick? Perhaps his size, or lack thereof, was too much to accept?
    But then again I can say the same thing about Blair, only it was his knees, maybe his size but mainly his knees. Maybe other GMs were getting way too picky . . Blair? no knees. McClinton? too small.
    Either way, it turned out great for SA. Can’t wait to watch them.

  • duaneofly

    I don’t think other teams passing over a player is a knock on them.
    Tony Parker was a late first round pick. Gilbert Arenas and Michael Redd were second round picks. Ben Wallace was undrafted.
    Kwame Brown was a #1 pick. Darko went before Melo, Bosh, and Wade. Tyrus Thomas and Marvin Williams were drafted before Chris Paul and Deron Williams.
    All those examples came right off the top of my head. If I searched previous drafts I could find a ton more examples of great players going late and crappy players going early.

    There’s nothing wrong with McClinton just because he was drafted late, there might be something wrong with a lot of other teams front offices though.

  • ThatBigGuy

    Has any team made as big of a jump from “solid/boring” to “super solid/exciting” in one off season as our boys? We now have a healthy Manu back, rested and ready to tear up things, Jefferson slashing and dunking on people, a rich man’s Eddie House, and semi truck who rebounds? Not to mention less of Finely. Could it be possible that we send 4 guys to the All-Star game next season? Should i be feeling this great, this early? Is there too many question marks? AHHHH!

    I.
    Can’t.
    Wait.

  • Samuel

    Color me in the excited category as well. Ridiculously so.

    But… perhaps we should temper our expectations just a little bit? Just so this doesn’t go from one of the most exciting seasons in recent years to one of the most dissappointing.

  • Area Man

    In following up on some of duaneofly’s points, other teams drafted for their own needs. Many of them may not have needed an undersized, “Eddie House”-like player in Jack McClinton; the Timberpups needed as many point guards as the the draft would allow, for example.

    The summer league reports will be interesting to to see in the coming weeks.

    As for the rotation, what’s going on with Jacque Vaughn? Very little has been said about him. What’s his situation? Has he commented at all about his future with the Spurs, since the first round exit?

  • funktron

    Right with you ThatBigGuy.

    I keep telling myself: Until it happens on the court, don’t get too yoked over all this fun stuff.

    But it’s hard not to like the product RC and Pop have put together. I was watching McClinton clips on YouTube and the guy can flat out shoot the rock from anywhere on the court and with guys in his face. He single-handedly kept them in games against Duke and UNC, and it wasn’t like he was sitting there taking wide open shots (though he made those when he did). He has all manners of getting off a shot, and he’s got a quick release. He also finishes at the basket well for a guy his size and has a pretty good first step. Rich man’s Eddie House sounds fine to me.

    And Blair – semi truck who rebounds. Love it. :)

  • Dani

    I think little has been said about Mr. Jacque Vaughn because alot of people (or at least Spurs fans) expect him to be gone and irrelevant for a team that needed to get younger and better. Adding RJ, Gist (as is the initial report) and gettin lucky in the draft only furthers that point. And we might be guilty in giving him the cold shoulder (i know i am) just because he couldn’t be effective as we would’ve liked. But perhaps not mentioning him was just the quiet consensus that he is no longer needed, especially now. And maybe it was just that obvious to him and the spurs FO, thats why there were no comments (just my speculation). However, I do appreciate what Jacque brought . . experience, unselfishness and hard work. But, its time to move on . . . and how exciting its been so far.

  • muwu

    McClinton did win the NCAA three point shot contest this year, if no one knew

  • Rambler

    What does all of this mean for Malik Hairston as well? His NBDL numbers are impressive, and seems to have all the tools to be a decent 2/3 combo sort of guy. Having said that – I just haven’t seen enough to know whether he is ready for the NBA next year (and I know even less about Gist – is this guy coming back to play in Austin or San Antonio?). Anybody got the scoop on how the bottom end of our bench is shaping up?

  • Ryan

    It’s always about size in the NBA anymore which is sad because there are a lot of talented smaller players out there. And with Blair he’s still 6’7 and it wasn’t all that long ago that the best power forwards were around that range. Charles Barkley and Dennis Rodman were only 6’6″. Larry Johnson was 6’7″ and Elton Brand plays a good 4 at 6’8. The problem with the league right now is they want everybody close to 7 foot but the problem is after about 6’6″ a person starts to lose coordination.

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  • duaneofly

    Isn’t Nate Robinson only 5’8? I’d consider him an average quality player, which isn’t a knock on him. So if our guy is only 5’11, I’m not too worried about that.

  • manufan

    Parker, Hill, ???
    Manu, Mason, McClinton
    RJ, Udoka, Gist
    Duncan, Gooden, Blaire
    ???, Mahinmi, Bonner
    That should be it. If Finley come back than I don’t see Udoka or Gist on the team. Spurs are gonna bring bunch of undrafted players to play in the summer league and try them out just to fill out Toros roster. One thing that I would like to see is Nando De Colo playing in the summer league just to see how he mesure against NBA prospects.
    Before season starts we need true point and starting big player. If we can’t find a realy good big guy than I would finaly shift Duncan to 5 spot and insert Gooden in the starting linup.

  • Big50

    Do we really want Eddie House? Look, I’m all for instant offense off the bench, but House is a one dimensional guy. Catch and Shoot. That’s all he can do. I hope McClinton turns into a better over all player than that. If he’s good on defense and his ball handling is good I see him being better than House.

  • DaniS

    Big50,
    Considering we were able to draft a player like McClinton as late as we did Im not sure there is much room for questioning his potential. If SA was drafting in the first round then there might be some merit to that. But, considering the “weak” label the draft had, SA didn’t quite amazing. I do agree with your last line though, if McClinton is better on defense (which RC said plainly that he was the best defender they worked out) and is already compared to Eddie House, then Jack is not like House, he is just a better player. Or at least as the potential to be.
    It has been noted that McClinton has drawn comparisons to E. House, but can play defense. Again, I just call that a better player.

  • DaniS

    Then again, the guy hasn’t played an NBA game yet. So we’ll see . . .

  • http://www.tacoma-upgrade.com Steven

    The Spurs shouldn’t bring back Gooden, it’d be a waste of a perfectly good roster spot. He proved he’s an OK offensive player who makes dumb decisions with little-to-no IQ when it comes to playing defense.

    I’m not sure what the answer at the 4 is, but we’d be better off bringing Gist in to play behind/in front of Blair and keeping Duncan there, but moving him to the 5 when it makes sense. Resign Oberto at the 5 as insurance and we are set (hoping that Mahinmi is better than horrible).

    Of course, that doesn’t mean the Spurs will play small-ball, they’ll have decent height and size at the 2,3 and 4 still. This should allow us to spread the floor and keep up with faster teams, while having the bulk to bang with the Lakers and Nuggets of the world.

  • Krista

    Big50… remember Steve Kerr in the 2005 playoffs? His “catch and shoot” off the bench against the Mavs saved that series for the Spurs. (And the Spurs could’ve used some instant offense this past year against the Mavs.) It’s not a waste of a roster spot to have a one-dimensional catch and shoot player. Sometimes that’s what is needed. That is also why teams do need role players… to fill a role.

  • Rye

    Even though I’ve read conflicting reports on this, I’ll say in the end Wallace signs, just because it’s been long rumored and logistically it makes sense. I’m also guessing that Finley picks up his player option. Assuming that happens, here’s my prediction for the opening night roster.

    Starters: PF- Duncan, SF- Jefferson, C- Wallace, SG- Mason, PG- Parker

    Bench: SG- Ginobili, PF- Bonner, SF/SG- Finley, PF- Blair, PG/SG- Hill, PF/C- Mahinmi, SG/SF- Hairston

    Inactive/D-League: SG/PG- McClinton, PF/SF- Gist

    This, to me is a championship caliber roster. The last three spots are interchangeable and can be altered according to match up. Weaknesses: Lack of proven length/defenders off the bench at the big positions, lack of proven defenders on the wings (an area Buford said the Spurs “won’t be negligent in pursuing”, I’m guessing Udoka or Diawara is brought in if Hairston isn’t deemed sufficient in this role), and lack of true point guards off the bench. All this of course pails in comparison to the importance of health, and establishing chemistry throughout the year due to all the turnover. I expect this group to be peaking right around the Rodeo Trip, and to be poised for a deep playoff run.

  • Daniel B

    Big50, he’s not going to be a one-dimensional player. Pop has already said that one of the main reasons he picked him up is because of his superb defensive skills.

  • Kay

    All very interesting comments. Good analysis.

    Is there still a role for Bowen when the Bucks release him? Will the Spurs offer him a spot for another year?

  • Jason

    Wow, have you guys who’ve been making rosters forgotten that free agency hasn’t even started yet? Expect the spurs to sign another serious big man like Wallace, or failing that maybe Gortat.

    I don’t think the answer is resigning Oberto or Gooden. I think Gooden might be done for a while, remember when he was coughing up blood after Game 2 against the Mavs and then mysteriously DNP-CD the rest of the series?

    The roster will change after free agency, one question will be if we want Ime or Malik Hairston to be our 3rd SF. Another will be which big man gets the MLE

  • Daniel B

    Jason, do you think we could still get Gortat? I was thinking about him the other day, and I remembered that the Magic traded Tony Battie, their other back up center. So would they be willing to give up Gortat? Or did they get another back up center that I didn’t hear about? Because that would leave them with Dwight Howard as their only center.

    Or am I just missing something completely?

  • Joe

    Don’t sleep on Zaza Pachulia as an option, too. He’s not getting the exposure right now that Gortat is because the Magic made it to the finals, but he’s just as good, if not better.

    I’d say with Sheed as option #1 if available, McDyess as option #2, and Gortat or Pachulia as options 3a & 3b, we have a very good chance to vastly improve at the center spot if we’re willing to spend enough money.

  • duaneofly

    I’ll pass on McDyess. I put him in the same category as Finley. He’s old and done, but just can’t bring himself to give it all up. McDyess can still contribute, but not at a level that warrants taking minutes away from Blair and Gist.
    Zaza is a good idea though.

  • DaniS

    Kay,
    I know i wouldn’t mind having Bruce back. He could definitely add to the depth of the team but we’re unsure if the Bucks will buy him out yet even though it has been rumored that they may do so. But since it seems the priority right now is to find a big, a possible comeback from Bruce has taken a back seat. Notice the word “possible.” Until he is bought out and fair game, Bruce is not an option. And i think there is always a role for a 3-time NBA champ known as defensive ace. We’re just not quite sure if it’s with San Antone. I definitely think he would be welcomed back though.

  • Samuel

    I’d rather have McDyess than Rasheed… although surely there’s an option out there that isn’t pushing 40 that we can slide into the C spot.

  • http://poormansgm.blogspot.com Jaceman

    Interesting, if McClinton does turn out to be the next Eddie House or (for a more Spurs-oriented reference) Steve Kerr type player I think that’d be great. If he does pan out, I’m pushing even more for the trading of Roger Mason while his stock is high.

    In terms of a big, I think ‘Sheed is best available right now that would fit well next to Duncan. If he did opt out and we did have enough money, Mehmet Okur would be a dream.

  • Chris K.

    Surprisingly I think that Rasheed Wallace’s greatest asset, were he to become a Spur, is his attitude.

    I think the Spurs could use Wallace’s edge, his urgency, and his fire. Rasheed’s competitiveness has never been questioned, it’s his intelligence and ability to keep his cool that has been a problem.

    With the Spurs’ locker room, and on the downside of his career, perhaps those issues could become a thing of the past…

  • JayM61

    Important fact : Duncan will never play the 5. He already had stated that years back. He only plays the 4.
    Personal note: I think Drew Gooden is a good fit for the Spurs. Spurs really don’t need a dominant big man in the middle. Gooden’s game is the best compliment for Timmy. He has a decent outside shot, will be a good defender having to workout with Spurs program. And he is athletic too.
    P.S.
    If we get a player like Rasheed to play the 5, then maybe we can get rid of Matt Bonner by that time. It is just reasonable because Rasheed’s game plays alike with Bonner. But with Sheed’s length, he can really bother a lot of bigs in the west, especially Pau or Lamar….. Just as long as he keeps his cool though.

  • JayM61

    Rasual Butler would also be a good pick up. We can trade Roger for him !

  • http://bryanlounsberry.blogspot.com/ Bryan

    I’d like to add another piece of evidence for your claim about Pop’s recognition of point guard abilities: Who would have thought Jacque Vaughn would be able to add as many quality, if overlooked, minutes as a backup’s backup?

  • G7997

    Now that Fin has signed, we have the pieces to get Marcus Camby if the Clips wanna move him. Trading Fin, Mason and Bonner for Camby would be awesome. Imagine a roster like this:

    Starters:
    C:Rasheed Wallace (If rumors are true that he’ll sign MLE)
    PF:Tim Duncan
    SF:Richard Jefferson
    SG:Manu Ginobili
    PG:Tony Parker

    Bench:
    Marcus Camby
    Dejuan Blair
    George Hill
    Bruce Bowen(if he is released and then signs for minimum)
    Von Wafer (or someone similar willing to sign for the Bi-annual Exception)
    Ian Mahinimi
    James Gist
    Jack McClinton
    Malik Hairston
    Bobby Jackson (or similar PG that can be signed for the minimum)

    I know that there are a lot of IF’s in this possible roster, but I get excited thinking about this scenario. And for those of you that wonder why I have Wallace starting over Camby, it is because the floor will be spaced better when Duncan is on the floor.

  • gene

    if manu came back healthy i think that is the championship team we could say

  • gene

    i dont think sheed is a good option,,he’s always hot,not in the game but in the officials.

  • Kman

    Steven, who ever you are, do not bring back Oberto.. If you didnt notice how Gooden, in limited time mind you, locked down Dirk Nowitzki of all people, then you need to go back and watch.. Gooden was added to a team that already worked well together and was just looking for his in.. He has had an entire off season to workout with the team and will most likely have a better offensive and deffensive output this season.. Oberto was no where near consistent, even though I hate to say it because he always played with enormous heart and was one of the best offensive rebounders on the team

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