Tuesday, May 11th, 2010...12:59 am
R.C. Buford: Trading Tony Parker would be crazy
San Antonio Spurs general manager R.C. Buford and head coach Gregg Popovich have a busy summer ahead of them, as should any front office whose team is swept out of the second round of the NBA playoffs. Point guard Tony Parker? Perhaps not so much.
In his exit interview on Monday, Buford dismissed Tony Parker trade speculation, calling Parker an integral part of the Spurs’ success and attributing such talk to his various ailments this season.
“I think that we would be crazy not to want a player like Tony in our program for a long time,” Buford said. “He’s been a big part of the success we’ve had, not only as an individual but as a part of the team.
“The speculation on Tony is placed outside of our organization, not internally.”
Perhaps making the decision a little easier, Tony Parker said in his exit interview that he is leaning towards skipping the World Championships this summer in favor of preparing for next season. Parker stated that he will meet with Popovich and the Spurs organization and make a decision by next week.
“I’m going to attack next season like a revenge,” Parker said. “I felt like I didn’t play as well as I did in 2009 so I want to come out blazing next year.
“I want to be really good next year so I’m really going to work hard this summer, even more than I did in the past.”
Plantar fasciitis and an assortment of other injuries robbed Tony Parker of his trademark quickness this season, leaving him a shell of the All-NBA point guard he was a year ago. A broken hand afforded him some time for his legs to recover and by the Phoenix Suns series his numbers were nearly back to what the Spurs have come to expect from him.
Tony Parker is an All-Star quality point guard with a reasonable contract who is theoretically in his prime, making him a valuable trade asset. But shouldn’t those reasons make the Spurs want to keep him?
Over at Yahoo Sports, Kelly Dwyer sums it up perfectly:
Trading Tony Parker? It’s worth exploring. Technically, Parker should be in his prime, but his status may have taken a dip with a flat 2009-10. He has a year left on his contract and could be perfect for a veteran team trying to get over the hump offensively, like the Spurs, but the returns would have to be perfect. “The returns” also involve George Hill playing full time point guard, and two seasons in, I just don’t know if he has that in him.
I will never understand the amount of criticism Parker receives from some of the San Antonio fans, but the guy truly is one of the most unique weapons in NBA history. He’s a slight NBA point guard who does not finish above the rim, and yet, his shot chart resembles that of an All-Star big man.
If the San Antonio Spurs are going to trade Tony Parker, it had better be for another All-Star with borderline All-NBA potential. And it would also almost assuredly have to be at a position other than point guard because there are only a handful of point guards in the NBA you would want over a healthy Parker, and Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo, Steve Nash or Chris Paul are not going anywhere.
And whoever that potential trade partner might be, even if it is a Chris Bosh, you almost have to make sure a starting point guard is included in the deal unless you plan on giving Manu Ginobili those responsibilities for 40+ minutes a night.
Trading Parker for anything less would be a financial move and signal a white flag from the San Antonio Spurs camp, or move for the future. But realistically, Tim Duncan is the window. There is no immediate championship contender beyond him.
More likely the help will come from Tiago Splitter and either the improvement Richard Jefferson or DeJuan Blair makes in their second year in the system, or Jefferson’s expiring contract near the trade deadline.
The moves this summer, they’re not about propping the window open for another decade. Please understand, it’s merely for another year or two-three at tops, if everything falls right.
For all the talk about aging, the Big Three showed enough in the playoffs to believe that simply renovating their supporting cast might be enough. But unless you have the best player on the planet (which Tim Duncan use to be), you need that third star. For the Spurs, that’s Tony Parker.
255 Comments
May 11th, 2010 at 1:32 am
Definitely crazy.
How about you guys do a post detailing what type players (or specific players) SA needs to get this offseason or next season?
May 11th, 2010 at 2:25 am
What about for bosh and calderon, throw in blair and mahimi?
May 11th, 2010 at 2:48 am
I have basically stated this exact post ad nauseam.
For some reason there are elements of our team that are so incredibly harsh on Frenchy.
I’ve also put forward the case all year that you can’t just trade him 1 for 1 to another team because if you don’t get a competent starting PG back you are screwing yourself.
You go from having a surplus of talent at the guard rotation to just barely covering if at all.
For all the strides George has made (and make no mistake he is the big improver this year), he still is not a playmaker in the strictest sense of the word, and whilst I don’t believe in pigeon holing players (the ridiculousness of calling TP a shoot first point guard for instance), George gets a huge % of his shots out of the spurs penetrate and dish style.
This is why I am dead against trading TP at all. Hold onto our strength which is our guard rotation, and aid our weak spots.
Dejaun improving his range, Malik Hairston becoming a more valuable minute sponge, George becoming a more complete PG.
Of course Adding Tiago is the killer, and having him actually be as good as advertised.
May 11th, 2010 at 2:49 am
@Jaffe
You don’t want Calderon as your starting PG (with the relevant salary) in a conference where the top teams (those you will likely meet in May and hopefully in June) start at the position Mr. Williams, Deron, Mr. Nash, Steve, Mr. Paul, Chris.
Calderon is a nice guy and could be a nice 7th or 8th man for a contender, but not a starter.
May 11th, 2010 at 5:33 am
I have never understood that talk, and it seems almost more foolish now. Tony is actually the cornerstone of this team right now. His speed, ability to penetrate and create his own shot are now what we work off of as we used to work off Tim.
I agree that we do not look down the road quite yet, and the guys showed they might have another run in them with some new life, BUT Timmy did start to look old in the Phx series. He cannot necessarily make a big impact on games at will anymore and those “off” games are becoming less of an aberation. His is still top 3 Power Forwards in the league, mind you, but he is now a mere superstar.
You could have talked me into maybe trading Manu (before the last part of the season!) but Tony is a building block. If we can get a productive Big to play alongside Tim (like a young McDyess), and someone to do what RJ was supposed to do, there is another run in that tank.
May 11th, 2010 at 5:40 am
Yeah I agree, even if you don’t like TP it’s hard to trade him. I think it’s clear we are not deep at guard right now. Trade TP and we get in trouble without a quality guard in return, but then why trade him in the first place? Do we really want to trade a good guard for what? Two average players, because the need for a guard in return hampers what we can get.
Splitter is the key to a good offseason. Get splitter, draft a wing (drafting 20 almost feels like number 1 after all these years) and get Temple or Hairston to crack the regular rotation and we’ve done well. This team is not that far off. Oh yeah, and get rid of Bogans and Mason.
May 11th, 2010 at 6:30 am
I don’t really think we should trade TP, I just think the front office should be open to all trade talk. Maybe put out the word that the Spurs are looking to make any deal, and see what pops up.
I don’t think our team needs to make a big overhaul to the roster, I mean, 2nd round of the playoffs isn’t THAT bad (unless you’ve won four titles and expect the finals every year lol). So a few tweaks to our bench and bringing over Splitter might be just what we need.
May 11th, 2010 at 6:48 am
The window named TD has closed! Look at the Phoenix front line, Collins and Amare. TD could not dominate against them? And defensively on P/R he was a liability! Sad but true. We need a primary shot-blocking center (I realize that they just don’t fall out of the sky) and TD can be the second (like David Robinson in 2003).
May 11th, 2010 at 6:54 am
Tim Duncan is as much “the championship window” right now as Robinson was in 2001. Still, don’t trade The Big Three. Find better role players and let Pop coach.
duaneofly-respectfully, “See what pops up,” is not a way to lead a franchise, or we will again get back players that do not fit-like Jefferson.
Last playoffs, the Spurs were a dying team. This year, they really accomplished something-even while I’m sitting here in Phoenix, very proud of them this postseason.
May 11th, 2010 at 6:56 am
@Tim-well said. Correction, 2003 not 2001.
May 11th, 2010 at 6:58 am
When healthy and at his sharpest, Tony Parker is always an indispensable asset for San Antonio. And, remember, he’s only 27 and has a better recovery time than the rest of the “ageing” Spurs. Note his determined remarks - “I intend to return with a vengeance” next season, or something to that effect - and you know he’ll be dead serious on making good on that vow.
George Hill, for all his improvement, is still a diamond in the rough; I prefer the 24-karat Parker at this point. Trading him for a big man may not be the wisest move at this point. Premier point guards like him are a premium in the NBA.
May 11th, 2010 at 6:59 am
and chris bosh is not a shot blocker.
May 11th, 2010 at 7:22 am
Perhaps they will look to trade Parker, perhaps the FO won’t. I love RC and Pop, but no one will come out and say, “Yes, we are looking to trade Player X.” As soon as you admit that, the trade value for Player X is compromised.
duaneofly
May 11th, 2010 at 6:30 am
“I don’t think our team needs to make a big overhaul to the roster, I mean, 2nd round of the playoffs isn’t THAT bad (unless you’ve won four titles and expect the finals every year lol).”
We got swept in the second round. In all reality, the Suns series wasn’t that close. You could tell the Spurs were barely hanging on in all 4 games. We didn’t even get to play the Lakers, who are supposedly the best team in the west. Spurs absolutely need a roster overhaul. We have three aging stars, one former star that struggled all year, and a pair of decent young players. Outside of that, we have nothing.
“So a few tweaks to our bench and bringing over Splitter might be just what we need.”
What bench? For the Spurs, the bench was the biggest flop in their entire post season campaign. We need to entirely retool the bench meaning we need at least 3 decent players to replace the Bonners, Bogans’, and Mason’s of the world. Trust me Duane, there’s a TON of stuff to do and while I believe that Splitter would go a LONG way, pinning our hopes on youngsters like Hairston and Temple is suicide.
bduran
May 11th, 2010 at 5:40 am
“Splitter is the key to a good offseason. Get splitter, draft a wing (drafting 20 almost feels like number 1 after all these years) and get Temple or Hairston to crack the regular rotation and we’ve done well. This team is not that far off. Oh yeah, and get rid of Bogans and Mason.”
I agree that Splitter is the key and Bogans and Mason should go. I would also throw Bonner in that category. He’s proven nothing in the last 3-4 years outside of being a +- champ. As I stated earlier, the team needs more than just Hairston and Temple. Who’s going to consistently hit a 3 pointer? Probably not Temple and certainly not Hairston. Who is going to come off the bench and play 15-20 minutes per night? Perhaps these two could do it, but we all know Pop’s aversion to playing the youngsters. In short, we should absolutely develop these guys, but the Phoenix series showed that we lacked a bench and 3 pt shooting. While Temple and Hairston can help a bit, they are not the full answers to this teams needs. We need either trades or good pickups in the Free Agent market to round this team into a contender.
May 11th, 2010 at 7:33 am
You want to fix our biggest weakness, shooting, by letting our best shooter walk? Kind of silly.
Bonner shot 37% from the arc in the playoffs. Frye shot 38.5% (so far). And Frye has the luxury of standing out there with three other marksmen, Bonner is isolated. The Suns doubled off RJ all day but anyone who left Matt got a tongue-lashing from Gentry.
May 11th, 2010 at 7:46 am
I agree that we can’t trade TP. He’s too proud not to be better this year and if he skips the worlds and puts in gym time like George Hill did this summer, watch out. George Hill is pissed off too. This team knows their window is closing although sometimes effort is not enough. Tiago will be huge if he comes and fits into our system. As Pop said, it’s ridiculous to think the spurs will win ever year, but given their talent, fans certainly have high expectations…at least for another 2 or 3 years.
May 11th, 2010 at 7:48 am
Any chance the spurs look to move jefferson? I dont think he is a bad player, i just think he is the wrong fit for this team. They need a spot up shooter not another guy who penetrates to the hoop. Ideally, the spurs could try and get some sort of small forward who can knock down a consistent jumper, average 10 pts a night.
Also def want the spurs to let bonner walk. Suns compltely exposed him for being slow and he missed so many shots throughout the post season. Splitter and maybe sign an athletic 4?
May 11th, 2010 at 7:50 am
doggydogworld
May 11th, 2010 at 7:33 am
“You want to fix our biggest weakness, shooting, by letting our best shooter walk? Kind of silly.”
Your first sentence summed up half of our problems against Phoenix. Matt Bonner shot 37% from 3 and that’s the best we had. Dogg, 37% is a ludicrously mediocre number to shoot. So you mean to tell me that we are willing to overlook his lack of athleticism, his lack of rebounding, his lateral quickness, (or lack thereof) and his complete inability to hit in the clutch because he shoots a “blistering” 37% from 3? Come on Dogg, let your man crush on Bonner go. He’s already been here 4 years and had his chance. His salary can be better spent picking up someone who can really shoot.
P.S. Matt Bonner ranks 51st in 3pt% for all postseason players in 2010. Thats not exactly the torid shooting the Spurs need.
May 11th, 2010 at 7:53 am
Could Finley have helped us at all in the playoffs? He wasn’t shooting well before he left and he’s not getting much time in Boston, but something that’s been harped on was our inability to make a 3.
May 11th, 2010 at 8:01 am
Chillfan, I didn’t mean we should take whatever trade pops up, simply that we should be open to listening. On top of that, as Tim, Graydon, Jesse, and Andrew have all pointed out, we all thought the RJ trade was a great move! People only say different now because RJ didn’t end up being the star we thought he’d be.
On top of that, yes RJ killed our cap room, but would having Bowen, Thomas, and Oberto have resulted in us getting past the second round? Probably not, but I will admit we might have been able to find a better deal if we had waited until the trade deadline. Then again, hindsight is 20/20.
May 11th, 2010 at 8:12 am
I love the sentiment around here (at least, currently). Getting rid of Tony is a terrible idea. When he is healthy, there aren’t many other PGs that I’d rather have. This is a guard driven league. Look at the trouble that Cleveland is having with Boston because Rondo is dominating. Last season, TP was the motor that made the team GO and can get there again if healthy, and obviously motivated.
As for the rest of the team, Hobson makes a great point. You aren’t saying a lot when you say the best shooter “lit it up” with a 37% mark from 3. That just doesn’t cut it. I’ve been defending Bonner all season, but he has now proven 2 years in a row he doesn’t have playoff chops. I don’t care about regular season +/- numbers and shooting percentage. We need it in the post season, and he just isn’t cutting it. He seems to be a great teammate, but it may be time to let him go.
As for the draft, I’m excited about a pick at #20. Sure, it may be considered weak, but so was last year’s draft. There ended up being quite a few surprises in this year’s rookies, and feel confident that the Spurs can find an athletic wing who can be taught to defend and hit the corner 3 at that spot.
Even though we got swept, this was a promising year. I feel that the Spurs aren’t really that far away from being contenders again. Especially not if Tony and Manu come back at full strength. Go Spurs Go!
May 11th, 2010 at 8:14 am
The problem is that when Bonner is the ONLY guy that is really stretching the floor, everyone keys in on him. 37% for almost all contested 3 point shots isn’t bad at all. Put more sharpshooters out there, and he gets more open shots, ’cause they can’t all be covered.
So, priorities are… 3-pt shooters, a big man who can swat shots, and a good wing defender (preferably one that can knock down threes).
I think everyone realized Bruce Bowen was contributing, but these last few seasons have really hammered that point home. He was a HUGE part of what the Spurs did.
May 11th, 2010 at 8:14 am
@duanefly,
You make a really good point about hindsight being 20/20. If the Spurs had waited a few months for Captain Jack to become disgruntled in Golden State, they possibly could have traded for him. But there’s no way they would have known that was to happen. The team made a potentially great move by striking early. The move just didn’t pan out.
May 11th, 2010 at 8:16 am
And folks, remember. We took out the Mavs! We just ran into a Phoenix team that is peaking at the right time, with some of their guys playing absolutely phenomenal ball. We’re not as far off as we think. We don’t need to blow everything up.
May 11th, 2010 at 8:23 am
@ Sarge: As well as we played against the Mavs, please remember that they are probably the only team in the playoffs older than us!!
May 11th, 2010 at 8:26 am
If he doesn’t play europe and heal is plantar, he’s a total different play than what we saw during this season
May 11th, 2010 at 8:54 am
I have always thought trading TP was crazy. To me this all started when Williams/Paul came into the league and started dominating.
Suddenly TP wasn’t good enough because he wasn’t Williams or Paul. Suddenly having a top 5 PG in the league wasn’t enough because he doesn’t average 10 assists a game.
Our problem isn’t the guard rotation. It’s consistent shooting and help D from the big men.
May 11th, 2010 at 9:06 am
I’m not sure trading Bonner is a good idea. Even if he only hits 37% from 3 in the playoffs he still stretches the floor. Giving up a 3pt shooter isn’t a good idea at this point. If we can get other guys who fulfill this need then sure, but right now he provides something we need. I’d rather add guys who can hit a 3 than trade 1-1, even if it’s an upgrade.
May 11th, 2010 at 9:08 am
After reading this post, I take back what I said about trading Tony. But he must skip playing in the summer if he wants to help this team win. He is an old 27 year old.
The FO needs to instill fear in the rest of the league. No team is really scared of the Spurs. No team in their right minds would sleep on us either. But we are lacking that intimidation factor. Get Splitter and go for Bosh. If we can’t trade RJ in the offseason, leverage his expiring contract in February to make a mid-season move.
Only make a couple of minor changes with this team is not going to get it done. The west has upcoming teams in Portland and OKC which are only going to get better.
Let’s get one more for Timmy!
May 11th, 2010 at 9:24 am
On a separate note:
Reading ESPN’s draft blog, looks like the Spurs are bringing in Xavier Henry from Kansas (6ft 7 SG, 220lbs, 42% 3′s), and Paul George from Fresno St (6ft 7 SG/SF, 185lbs, 40% career 3′s) on Thursday. Chad Ford’s Mock draft had them going 15 and 28 respectively.
If Henry falls to 20, would be a nice pickup!
May 11th, 2010 at 9:30 am
We need to get rid of Bonner and Mason and Jefferson. Keep everybody but them three. Jefferson will never fit in so we need to trade him for a quality big man and draft a decent 2 guard or small forward. Another thing forget about Tiago Splitter he is not coming so use the mid level for another quality role player
May 11th, 2010 at 9:35 am
@Dingo, thats interesting. While I’m not familiar with either of them, they both have the size to play the SF position. Although much can change in a few days let alone months, from what I can tell, the only way we can truly get better is if we trade Jefferson and plug someone else into his spot. Can you say bye-bye RJ?
May 11th, 2010 at 9:38 am
honestly, i don’t see what the problem would be
i’m not a big fan of scoring pgs; as i coach, i’m not really expecting my pg to have a high scoring night…i expect them to facilitate, create, control, and support; things of which T.P. does little.
don’t get me wrong, as a scorer, Tony is up there, but because of the way NBA rules have evolved most PGs can put up big numbers, and do; so its nothing special.
the assists have to be there, the control is a must….i can lose Tony for a stronger “pg”….sorry!
May 11th, 2010 at 9:53 am
i belive in loyalty and all that, but i’m more of a brand loyalists and a realist. this playoff showed me somethin’, and i’ve come to realize that this is no longer Duncan’s team…down the line, Tim became a liability and as much as i hate saying it, a spade is what i call it. Spurs have to be built around Ginobli, and that means revamping the entire team, even changing styles. Duncan, Ginobli, McDyess, Blair, and Hill stay…outside of that, get your bags packed. Spurs need a real center, a facilitator, an aggressive SF, and two defensive minded shooters off the bench. lets go get it, it ain’t time to be friendly…that sweep was embarrassing.
May 11th, 2010 at 9:58 am
@Dingo & Hobson,
I don’t see Xavier Henry contributing immediately, which is what this team needs. He may end up being a REALLY good player in about 3 or 4 years. At that point, he’d end up being the core of the next era of the Spurs. I’d rather get somebody who can play now.
I don’t know much about Paul George, but what Ford had written about him on the Draft Blog sounded like a player that I could get behind.
May 11th, 2010 at 10:54 am
i would say that getting rid of a premier pg is foolish. tony parker is indeed a scoring machine, but he put up some nice assist numbers in the dallas series. if we had more dependable, legitimate deep threats other than matt bonner, i would expect tony’s assist numbers to go up. tony will have an allstar season nxt year.
i think bonner is most definately a valuable contributor. his ability to stretch the floor is amazing, but we need to split his minutes with some low post defense from mahnimi granted his return. matt bonner is a great situational big, but low post defense is a higher priority.
i personally like the idea of trading mcdyess. he had a great postseason, but we must consider our future this summer. dyess does not have much left to contribute and we need to find more long term solutions to go along with an already aging core that is struggling with athleticism. tiago should be a nice lane clogger, but we need an athletic big that can defend the pick-and-roll and defend the aldridge, bosh’s of the world and tiago doesn’t look like he has the feet to cover these guys.
i’ve been on the mahinmi bandwagon all year and i will be until we let him go. he will have a breakout season wherever he ends up and would could be that athletic big we need. anyone notice his shooting touch or low post moves? not bad
if we can sign some role-playing, spot up shooters, this team will be in good shape to contend. hopefully free agency, the talent pipline, or draft will help asses this hole.
May 11th, 2010 at 10:56 am
haha
asses this hole
ass
May 11th, 2010 at 10:58 am
Spurs need to keep the Big 3 and get better role players. But, if Tony Parker can be traded for 2 or 3 decent role players that option needs to be explored. For example, I’d have tried to trade Parker and Mason for Devin Harris(a pg younger than Parker), Courtney Lee(a youthful defender and 3pt shooter), and Kenyon Dooling(a backup pg) to help the Nets create more cap space for the offseason at the trade deadline.
Spurs got beat by Suns cheap role players in Grant Hill, Frye, Dudley, etc making $3 million a yr or less.
Spurs should pursue Raja Bell and Mike Miller if possible. But, I doubt they’ll play for $3 million or less. Bobby Jones should be a target, a possible Bruce Bowen clone.
http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Bobby-Jones-351
May 11th, 2010 at 11:08 am
I think aside from the possibility of an RJ trade netting a few rotation players, filling out the roster entirely with min. salary guys might be one of the biggest challenges.
Is there any chance that we might be able to nab a guy like Josh Howard for the min. or the bi-annual exception (assuming Washington doesn’t keep him)? He’s coming back from a really nasty injury, is over 30, and has had recent ‘character issues’; it may be a long shot, but it doesn’t seem entirely out of the question. If he flops, then it doesn’t cost much money, but if he returns to form, that would really be a huge improvement in our perimeter D.
May 11th, 2010 at 11:25 am
I don’t think we can win with the current 3 and mostly that is because of Duncan. I don’t think he can carry the team as he once used to (especially defensively). He can however play a role as the Admiral did for a young Duncan. That being said I think it would be worth exploring a trade with the Raptors for Bosh/Calderon for Parker/Jefferson (if Bash accepts that). I love Tony Parker and would hate to see him go, but I just don’t see the Spurs winning anything as they are now; even with small changes around the edges. As we’ve seen in the playoff Hill is not yet a true PG, and definitely not a creator, but than again we’ve won a title in ’03 with a young Parker that needed veteran help.
A front of Duncan/Bosh/Tiago/Blair would be something else. The backcourt would have some holes and the bench play would be lacking (probably).
May 11th, 2010 at 11:57 am
There seems to be several wing type players available in the neighborhood of 20 that would fill a need. So even though this is a weak draft, we may be able to get what we need.
Off the top of my head we have Xavier Henry, Luke Babbitt, Paul George, Damion James, and Gordon Hayward. We need someone this next year who can play decent defense on the wing, rebound, and hit corner 3s for 10-15 minutes a game.
Right now with lack of depth at the 3 we’re forced to play small with 3 guards a lot, which takes our already questionable guard depth down even further. Next year i’d love to eat up some minutes by drafting a wing and getting some play out of a longer guard like Temple.
May 11th, 2010 at 12:35 pm
All this talk of TP being untouchable is silly. Of course he can be traded, if the right match can be made.
What the Spurs need right now is a consistent scorer who can take the load off Tim and Manu (who aren’t going anywhere with those contracts) during the long regular season.
The truth is, our “Big Three” just aren’t big enough to beat the best teams anymore, regardless of the supporting cast.
Since Tony is our most tradeable asset, I say we think big. Parker and a draft pick could go to Golden State for Monta Ellis or to Minnesota for Al Jefferson. The salaries match and those guys are both young and under long-term contract. Most important, both are superior offensive players who could allow Timmy, Manu, Jefferson, McDyess, Hill and (hopefully) Splitter to pick their spots.
George Hill, Manu and some decent veteran pickup can handle the point guard duties just fine. Everybody says we have to compete with Nash, Deron Williams, Chris Paul etc. at the PG spot. But how many titles do those guys have combined? That’s right , zero. The point guard for the defending NBA camps is the less than intimidating Derek Fisher. We don’t need Parker to beat Nash. We need the Spurs to beat the Suns, Lakers and Cavs.
We need to shake things up to get to the mountaintop. I think the best way to do that is to find a young guy who can play lots of minutes, put up points and let our clutch oldsters step up when needed.
As currently constituted, even with the addition of Splitter, the Spurs are not a real contender.
To suggest otherwise is to play the ostrich-style head in the sand game.
May 11th, 2010 at 12:40 pm
First of all, lets not misread what Buford actually said. He certainly did not say what the title of the main post says: “Trading Tony Parker Would Be Crazy”. So, lets focus in on what RC really said, which is quoted within the body of the main post:
““I think that we would be crazy not to want a player like Tony in our program for a long time,” Buford said.”
That is NOT the same as what the title of the main post implies. The quote above is simply GM speak, which when translated for fans = “we’d only trade him if we can get the right pieces in return, and besides, I don’t really want to talk about that issue right now”. That is a much closer interpretation to what he really said, than “Trading Tony Parker Would be Crazy”. GM’s are not far removed from politicians, and I’m sure all remember the quote: “it depends on what the definition of “is” is. So, let’s be honest, no GM after just getting swept in the second round of the playoffs, is going to say to some reporter that he’s going to trade ANYBODY, on the entire team, let alone his starting point guard. Lets just admit that right up front.
For those of you that have read most of my posts on this blog, you know that I’ve been in favor of considering a trade of TP and/or Manu, for the simple reason that they carry by far our highest trade value. And the fact is, we need some significant upgrades on this team to compete at the top level, and we are simply getting OLD at key positions.
Look at the Suns, just for one example. “One” of the reasons that they beat us is that they’re simply YOUNGER, and quite frankly, this is a young man’s sport. The Suns have 10 of their 15 players at age 27 or younger, and 7 of those ten have been on their team and in their regular rotation the entire year. On the other hand, the Spurs have 8 of 15 on their roster at age 27 or under, but two were not even on their roster for most of the year, and only THREE of the eight were even in the regular rotation. Take a look at any of the teams that are either at the top now, or on the verge of SERIOUSLY contending. They’re all either young, or have their “key” players still in their prime years: LA, Cavs, Orlando, Jazz, Blazers, OKC (By the way, the only other “older” team, similar to us, is the Celtics - and I guarantee you, they will lose to Cleveland - the only reason they are staying in that series thus far is the “out of this world” performances by their “young” star, Rondo).
Thus, personally, I’m more in favor of looking at a trade for Manu than I am for TP (although I would look at offers for TP). Manu turns 33 in July, TP turns 28 next week. Those 5 years are a big difference, particularly with Manu’s injury history. Plus, it is harder to trade a starting point guard because the PG is inherently a critical component to your team.
Also, lets get this out of the way right from the top; I love Manu & TP. I very much appreciate their strengths, both as individuals and as players, and what they have done for the franchise over the years. I don’t take the prospect of trading them lightly in the least. That said, I’m also a business person. Sometimes you just have to make tough decisions for the long-term competitiveness of the organization. I’m quite aware of all the pros & cons of trading either TP or Manu, but in the final analysis, trading one of them for the “right” pieces needs to be done for the long-term health of this franchise. Otherwise, we are destined in the next 3-4 years to have several years where we are not true contenders, not in the playoffs, and/or perhaps even one or more “losing” seasons.
I’ll briefly lay out my case with a set of declarative statements in bullet points:
- we cannot win a title without getting more higher quality young players in our rotation.
- we cannot win a title without a shot-blocking “big” in the front court rotation.
- we cannot win a title without upgrading our perimeter “D”.
- we cannot win a title without more clutch three-point shooters.
- we cannot win a title by simply tinkering with minor additions around an aging big three.
- we may never get Splitter, and we certainly will not get Chris Bosh. We need to stop pinning our hopes on pipe dreams.
- we do not need to get a bonafide, established star in return for TP or Manu. We need to look for young stars in the making, and solid players that meet a specific need.
The fact is, financially speaking, we have NO prayer of meeting the great majority of these needs (we are WAY over the cap). Thus, we cannot meaningfully compete in the FA market. And, our needs are clearly too deep to tinker. Thus, we must trade a piece of real value (TP or Manu), AND hope at some point to get something useful back when we send RJ and his 15 mil. dollar salary packing. But lets be clear, RJ does not, and never will, represent the trade value necessary to even come close to meeting our needs that are indeed necessary for us to compete for a title again in the near future.
If you guys just want to idol-worship personalities, fine. I want to win a title again, and with the chance of more than one over the next several years. Unfortunately, that is not going to happen by leaving ALL of the big three intact. Very hard business decisions are in order at this time. I don’t want to end up like the Celtics of the 1990′s.
May 11th, 2010 at 12:47 pm
I’ll add these to my bullet points. I thought they were pretty obvious, but……
- we’re not going to win a title by playing our young bench players more.
- we’re not going to win a title by getting “lucky” in the draft this year.
May 11th, 2010 at 12:48 pm
I was wondering about Bonner’s sudden offensive outbursts the last 2 games, then realized he’s in a contract year. Players have their best years in contract years. Parker will have an unbelievable year next year, just like Manu had a great run this year. No reason to trade him, his salary is #3 on the team($12.6m). Tim’s salary this year($22m) and RJ’s($14m) saddled the team more than anything.
Tim deserved that for all he’s done and it’ll go down to 18.2m next year. Bogans was unspectacular in his contract year, Mason didn’t see the court enough to really better himself. McDyess is a good value for what he’s being paid, but we need another big.
Splitter would really give this team a boost. If you’re going to trade TP, you better get Bynum or a really good big in return.
May 11th, 2010 at 12:54 pm
@Syd
You prefer trade Tony Parker for Monta Ellis or Al Jefferson??? Ellis is a “me first” shoot first and ask questions later guard. He was the leader of a 26-56 team, and you want to trade an All-NBA PG for him? Please.
Al Jefferson played a so-so season as the main guy on a 15-67 team. That’s not all his fault, being that he was still recovering from knee surgery. But do you want to trade you only valuable trade asset for a guy that you are unsure will ever regain form? I say no.
@Jim Henderson,
You make some very good points about this team having many needs and not really many assets with which to fill the needs. I’m just not so sure that there is a realistic trade out there that could help the team build for the future. What is it you suggest we get in return for Manu? A high draft pick? A budding star? Some young guys with lots of potential but without any current pedigree? Obviously, we aren’t getting Tyreke Evans, Steph Curry, or John Wall for TP.
May 11th, 2010 at 12:57 pm
@Hobson, you’re right it’s a huge problem that 37% led the team. But Sarge is right when he said Bonner’s percentage is depressed by our lack of other 3 point shooters. Look at how shooting percentages leap when a player joins the Suns. Frye, Dudley, Hill all are up 12-20% over their percentages elsewhere. Put Matt on that team and he’d shoot mid-40s.
And your 51st comment is silly. Players ahead of him include Tony Parker (2-3) and Tim Duncan (1-2). Maybe we should rebuild our offense around their 3 point marksmanship??? Include only players who actually shoot 3s (i.e. >15 attempts) and Matt was 28th. That’s still not acceptable but it will improve when he’s no longer our only option and defenders have to rotate away from him.
May 11th, 2010 at 1:00 pm
Syd
May 11th, 2010 at 12:35 pm
“Since Tony is our most tradeable asset, I say we think big. Parker and a draft pick could go to Golden State for Monta Ellis or to Minnesota for Al Jefferson. The salaries match and those guys are both young and under long-term contract. Most important, both are superior offensive players who could allow Timmy, Manu, Jefferson, McDyess, Hill and (hopefully) Splitter to pick their spots.”
Could you at least try to point out why the GSW & the T-Wolves would want to do these deals? Does it make sense to send a PG like to TP to the hodgepodge of players they have in Golden State, not to mention the fact that they have a guy like Curry branded as a starting point guard for that team for decades to come. What are the T-Wolves going to do with TP? Drive him insane? Can we be realistic here?!
“…. Tim and Manu (who aren’t going anywhere with those contracts)……”
Tim will not go, but Manu certainly still could.
“George Hill, Manu and some decent veteran pickup can handle the point guard duties just fine.”
Wrong. We would need more than a “decent” veteran pick-up.
“We need to shake things up to get to the mountaintop.”…….
“As currently constituted, even with the addition of Splitter, the Spurs are not a real contender.
To suggest otherwise is to play the ostrich-style head in the sand game.”
Now, those statements I agree with wholeheartedly.
May 11th, 2010 at 1:04 pm
Monta Ellis? Even Golden State fans complain about his lack of defense, something I didn’t think was even possible.
May 11th, 2010 at 1:06 pm
Some very good points here.
In a fantasy world, at this point in time, Tim would take a pay cut to $10mil/yr. Manu would redo his contract to $10mil/yr. and RJ would redo his contract to $6mil/yr. In that fantasy world, we would have the money to go after someone young and good. Unfortunately we have to deal with the reality that Tim’s and RJ’s salaries are handcuffing us so don’t expect any major signings or trades but maybe some cheap signings that work out great and put us over the top again. I can only wonder what would have happened had the team been playing as well for the entire season as they did from when Tony broke his hand up until Manu broke his nose…higher seed, rest down the stretch for Tim, Antonio, and Manu and quite possibly another finals appearance. Tony’s injuries and Manu’s poor play for the first 50 games put us in a hole that made us have to work so hard to earn the 7th seed. I think Manu’s broken nose and then Tony’s fall in game 3 when we were up by 18 were more detrimental than people realize.
May 11th, 2010 at 1:08 pm
Syd and Jim are right on the money. Buford NEVER said he wouldn’t trade Parker. Buford and to a lesser extent Pop are both politicians. They aren’t going to tip their hand or give away any long term plans.
@Syd, Although I’m not a big Monta Ellis fan, but a trade of Parker for Ellis plus Anthonly Randolf would definitely be interesting for the Spurs. I can almost promise you that GS would do this deal in a milli-second since they’ve been flashing around Anthony Randolf to anyone who would take Maggette or Ellis. I would LOVE to get Al Jefferson!
Another deal that would interest me would be Jefferson for Maggette, Randolf, and a sign a trade deal for Anthony Morrow who’s a Free Agent this summer. I don’t love Maggette(epecially his 3 year contract), but he would be a considerable upgrade over RJ. He simply has offensive skills that RJ has never possessed. We could get another VERY talented big in Randolf, whom Duncan could mentor, and also pick up an excellent 3pt shooter in Morrow who is a Free Agent and likely to leave anyway. We could sign Morrow to say a 3 year deal for $12mil. I think Golden State would do this since they are less than enamoured with #50 and are looking to shed salary. Maggette played VERY sparingly the last month of the season and I would have to believe they are looking to unload him. This is a riskier deal considering Corey’s contract, but has the potential to shore up a number of areas in one stroke.
May 11th, 2010 at 1:10 pm
Bryan
May 11th, 2010 at 12:54 pm
“What is it you suggest we get in return for Manu? A high draft pick? A budding star?”
I mentioned the following in a recent post, as the type of thinking we need to come to grips with. We need size, youth, competence, and potential that’s VERY obvious. Thus, an excerpt from a previous post as just ONE idea:
“We must be willing to evolve smartly to stay highly competitive! That MAY mean NOT committing to keeping Parker and/or Ginobli til death do us part. Otherwise we could end up like the Celtics of the 1990’s in the next 3-4 years. We need MORE high quality YOUNG talent on our team. Hell, all we know that we really have in this regard is Hill & Blair. That’s not enough. As a result, we should explore trades similar to the following: Ginobli & McDyess to OKC for 20 yr. old SG James Harden (who has star written all over his future, and he’s REALLY good right now), the 29 yr. old, and productive rotation player, the 6′10″, 255 pd. Nick Collison (or the 26 yr. old 7 footer, Krstic, if we’d prefer, because they would still have the up & coming star, Ibaka), and 23 yr. old, 6′9″, 251 pd. PF D.J. White (who has some promise), particularly if we’re never going to play Mahinmi, otherwise the third player could be someone else, or a 1st round draft pick; OKC has plenty of other young talent to choose from as well. They would love to have to have Manu, and would probably do that deal. Granted, this might not be the right type of deal for us, but we’ve got to start thinking along these lines if we want to avoid the potential of a “dark” half decade or more, starting mid-decade, or perhaps a bit earlier.”
Basically, I’m saying we need to upgrade our size, youth, and long-term potential. Now, not later!”
doggydogworld
May 11th, 2010 at 12:57 pm
I do think that Bonner is not too bad for the price, but we still need to acquire other shooters, somehow. Ans as you know, we don’t have much cash.
May 11th, 2010 at 1:14 pm
Jim,
I agree a lot with what you say, but I have a few issues. I know TD was is in decline, but we have won a championship with mostly veterans playing, just saying. I think the number one reason we need to get younger is to ease the transition when Manu and TD are gone. Losing them and having a bunch of Horry and Bowne types on the roster is a recipe for disaster. Ultimately, we need to get younger, we can disagree on as to why.
I do think that if the right trade appeared, the FO would make it and so would most of the people on this site. However, the consensus here seems to be that most of us don’t think the right trade will happen. I’m always interested to hear trade possibilities, it’s fun to speculate if nothing else.
I probably think that we are closer than you do to being a contender, but I agree we need more than tweaks. I think adding Splitter is more than a tweak nor is he a pipe dream. Our front office needs to make him a priority (and is from what I’ve read). From what I’ve read his coming is a real possibility, although of course it’s by no means certain. If it turns out he won’t come then I agree that another significant move must be made.
I don’t think it’s crazy to expect more from some of our young, bench players. Blair is a rookie who has a lot to figure out as an undersized post player and Temple is a rookie who we added towards the end. I believe Blair will continue to give us quality minutes and I’m hopeful about Temple. Rookies tend to get better.
As for the draft, I don’t think getting a 10-15 minute type player is unreasonable. It’s no guarantee but it happens all the time. Our FO seems to be a good judge of talent.
So what would make me happy? TD, TP, and Manu resting this summer, getting Splitter, hopeing for improvement from a couple of young guys, drafting a wing, and making a couple minor roster moves. Doesn’t have to happen this way, but I would feel good about our offseason. TP playing this summer or not getting Splitter would kill this plan.
May 11th, 2010 at 1:26 pm
@Dogg,
You’re defense of Matt Bonner is grasping at straws. We haven’t even addressed the fact that he’s unathletic, is a poor rebounder for his size, and his shot blocking is non-existent. You are now forced to defend what used to be his only strength…3pt shooting.
“Look at how shooting percentages leap when a player joins the Suns. Frye, Dudley, Hill all are up 12-20% over their percentages elsewhere. Put Matt on that team and he’d shoot mid-40s.”
Then let him go to the Suns! Perhaps you’re right and perhaps you’re wrong on this assumption. Their increase in percentages could be due to a number of factors; Steve Nash as PG, their vaunted ability to spread the floor with their pick and roll, or due to the fact that they are simply better players than Bonner. Bonner has been here 4 years and has yet to produce one memorable playoff moment. His game has yet to evolve into anything beyond a wide open 3pt shot. His ability to put the ball on the deck and drive is borderline obscene. Please, enough of Matt Bonner. He has had his opportunities and has yet to produce on the big stage.
May 11th, 2010 at 1:53 pm
Bynum to SA, Bosh/Parker to LA, LA + SA players to Toronto.
Let’s make it happen. Hill is good enough to be a starter. So let’s develop those D league kids, Jerrells and that other guy who has a pretty good stroke.
May 11th, 2010 at 1:55 pm
Bynum and Parker make the same amount. Bynum/Hill are young enough to build upon.
May 11th, 2010 at 1:56 pm
How about this,
Trade Ginnobli. Not because he is not a cool guy, but because he is aging, has durability issues, is turnover prone, and lacks consistency.
Could move Jeffereson if an opportunity arises to dump his salary and pick up a younger player or a draft pick.
Absolutely must get rid of Bonner, Bogans, and Mason. Regeardless of popular opinion, they give this team the identity of a weak ball club. One that no team in the leauge fears or respects.
Mahinmi is going into his 4th year of association with the Spurs. Keeping him, and actually working with him on his game this offseason, takes care of the back up center spot at a decent cost.
Duncan, Parker, Blair, Mcdyess, Hairston and Hill…Possibly Jefferson. The rest of the roster should be released.
Spurs must take the upcomming draft seriously. They have some decent picks and could get value there. A nice 10 point/10rebound big to come off the bench at the 4 would be nice. No more scrubs or one dimensional Euro League types. Also, every player wont always be a choir boy. Desiring good character is commendable, but players should not have more character than talent.
Finally,
Its time for the Spurs and TD to face reality. Duncan’s days at PF are over. He no longer has the footspeed to contend with a league whose players are stronger, younger and faster each year.
However, TD is far from done…TD needs to move to center. He stillk has the skillset and Basketball IQ to handle most NBA centers. Center is not the strongest position in the leauge. Most centers are one dimensional guys that TD can school. If Tim decides to spend a lil time in the weight room this offseason and increases his strength, he will be fine.
Of course none of this dribble really matters…Just hope the team stops f-ing around and brings in players instead of more scrubs.
Lets all just hope that when the Spurs pick at #20 in this years draft, our reaction isnt the usual,
WHO?
May 11th, 2010 at 2:37 pm
@ballhog
Even moving him to center doesn’t do much.
Suns-He can’t guard Amare, if the Suns go small the Spurs can’t hang.
Lakers-Can Tim guard Bynum? Who knows, the dude’s always hurt.
Mavs-He can guard Dampier, but he’s gone next year, and he can guard Haywood but Haywood has shown he’s fast enough to get around Tim.
Jazz-depends on who they have and who’s healthy. Can’t guard Boozer, but he plays PF
Denver-He and Nene are probably equal
Portland-Who knows if Oden will ever be good, so he can neutralize him
OKC-Tim would have his way there.
I don’t know what role is best for Tim. I want him to rest and be at his best for the playoffs. I like seeing the fire in his eyes, when he can make shots.
May 11th, 2010 at 3:40 pm
The only reason to trade TP is if he says he’s leaving at the end of the year.
Trade TP talk is just stupid. No other way to put it.
I agree with MUWU, how about an article about what role players to bring in.
I’ll start it off.
How about Korver and Mike Miller. SPURS NEED SHOOTERS.
May 11th, 2010 at 4:59 pm
Draftexpress’ mock draft has us picking up Stanley Robinson of UConn. Sr., SF/PF, 6’9″ 225 lbs. Sr. averages of 14.5ppg and 7.6rpg on 52% FG’s and 45% 3′s. Pros: freakish athleticism, defensive potential, explosiveness, size for position, and ability to defend multiple positions. Cons: not much overall offensive polish, potential off court red flags, inability to reach free throw line, ability to create own shot. My analysis: FREAKISH ATHLETICISM. Let Chip get him for the summer. Can you imagine a 6’9″ freak of nature running breaks with Tony and Manu?
Chad Ford’s own mock draft has us picking up Damion James of Texas. SR., SF/PF, 6’8″ 224lbs. Sr. averages of 18.0 ppg and 10.3 rpg (Big 12′s all time rebound leader) on 50% FG% and 41% 3′s. Pros: physical toughness, energy/intensity, NBA body/NBA athleticism, commitment to playing defense. Cons: tweener, limited upside potential, inability to create for others. My analysis: seems like Blair, but one position smaller. Good Spur-type player, never gives up, hustles constantly, but he shot a very limited number of 3′s and may have reached his potential.
Out of these 2 mock drafts, I like Robinson’s decent skill base coupled with his huge potential. Freakish athleticism would be wonderful to have. Depending on his development and Hairston’s continued improvement, it would make Jefferson expendable, assuming we could find a trade partner.
James has a great motor, like Blair, but Blair’s lack of size (and 18 foot J) keeps his minutes down against about half the teams in the league and I’m afraid James would be in the same boat. I think getting James as a 27-30 pick would be good, but not at pick 20.
My 2 cents.
May 11th, 2010 at 5:07 pm
@ Jim Henderson,
How do you know that the Spurs can’t get Chris Bosh in a sign and trade? Have they tried yet?
IF Spurs offer Jefferson, rights to Splitter, and a draft pick, why wouldn’t the Raptors accept?
Chris Bosh is from Dallas, Chris Bosh would help in a big to play Aldridge/Nowitzki/Stoudamire etc, Chris Bosh is in his prime, can shoot FT’s, and is a team guy.
Raptors don’t want Bosh to walk away for nothing, need a SF upgrade over DeRozan and play uptempo and an expiring contract- Jefferson would fit, they need a pf replacement - Splitter would fit, and sweetner in a 1st or 2nd round pick.
Heat will offer Beasley and ?, Knicks will offer Lee and ?, and Rockets will offer Jordan Hill and Scola? The Spurs offer compared with others would be enticing, especially if the Spurs pursue Bosh and Spurs are his preference ala the Rashard Lewis deal with the Magic.
Your thinking is too myopic. Jessie listed about 20 are you serious deals in a previous post. If Gasol can be had for Kwame Brown, anything is possible.
May 11th, 2010 at 5:20 pm
Hobson13
May 11th, 2010 at 1:26 pm
I think you’re just a “little” hard on Bonner, in relation to his salary, but I agree, I would like to get a better player to fill his role, if possible. The problem is, we have a couple of very important needs that take precedent (e.g., signing a big), and getting a better shooter than Bonner at his price won’t be that easy, especially in light of our cap situation, and how league rules give incentive to re-sign your own players. I am troubled by his playoff 3-point shooting for the last two years, and so I’m definitely open to trying to sign & trade Bonner, or letting him go for free, if we can find a better replacement for around the same money or less. But I don’t want to steal money/trade value away from other more pressing concerns without a clearly better replacement.
Mason
May 11th, 2010 at 1:53 pm
For one thing, Hill may never be an acceptable starting PG for a championship team. In fact, I’d be willing to bet on it. I think he’s got great SG potential, but he needs to get his ass in the weight room, and eat a few more pizzas. Second, LA is not really a great fit for Parker. If anything, LA could use a distributor that does not dominate the ball much, and is not that interested in scoring. Someone like Jose Calderon would be a perfect fit for them. And third, I don’t think LA has any interest in giving up the 22 yr. old Bynum. Big guys like that are too hard to come by. Finally, the deal would require a sign & trade on the part of Bosh. Why in the world would one of the most sought after free agents want to submit himself to those kind of restrictions? Like I said in several previous posts, signing Bosh is a fairytale. It’s NEVER going to happen, so can we just drop it, and move on into the realm of reality?
BALLHOG
May 11th, 2010 at 1:56 pm
“Trade Ginobli.”
I do agree that he’s our most sensible trade bait, with still some considerable value in the tank, and a particularly good match for a young team that could use his veteran savvy, and championship experience. For example, a team like OKC, who has overdone it on the young side. If they would like to “seriously” challenge in the next couple years they need a guy like Manu. Yup, OKC is brimming with quality young talent, just the type of players that we need. It’s a good match for a big trade.
“Its time for the Spurs and TD to face reality. Duncan’s days at PF are over. He no longer has the footspeed to contend with a league whose players are stronger, younger and faster each year.
However, TD is far from done…TD needs to move to center.”
TD does play center part of the time now. That said, I do agree that this is a sensible thing to consider, moving TD more full time to the center position, on both the offensive and defensive ends. He simply does not have the lateral quickness anymore to take on his mostly younger counterparts at the PF spot. Also, specifically on the offensive end, he should rely more now on his little hook shot in the lane instead of setting up as much off the low block.
junierizzle
May 11th, 2010 at 3:40 pm
“How about Korver and Mike Miller. SPURS NEED SHOOTERS.”
You don’t want to trade anyone of value, but with NO cap space, you want to acquire the league leader in three-point percentage, or an excellent all-around player that’s currently making 10 mil. per year. No offense, but could we stick to reality here?
May 11th, 2010 at 5:31 pm
Bonners not the frigging issue.
He is perfectly reasonable 10 minutes per night player.
The problem is he averaged nearly double that per night due to lack of other personell.
At league average he becomes a solid 10th man.
What we really need is for someone to step up and take a huge chunk out of his minutes, to earn those minutes.
To do that they have to be able to actually shoot.
One of the worst lineups you can have is a lineup with no shooters. It’s one of the reasons Dejaun played a lot of minutes with Bonner but not with Duncan.
This is on Dejaun. If he gets any kind of pick and pop game going A’La McDyess, bang, he is going to get all the minutes he wants.
@ “D”
You don’t like scoring guards? So i’m guessing you don’t like either of Tony Parker or George Hill, since George sure isn’t a facilitator.
The spurs have a system, they want ball movement and execution to get shots, not some guy to bring the ball up the floor and pass it to someone else then spot up at the 3 point line.
You wont find that in Todays NBA. Williams, Paul, Nash, Rondo are all scoring points, they all penetrate they all have strengths and weaknesses but they all score the hell out of the ball.
May 11th, 2010 at 5:51 pm
lvmainman
May 11th, 2010 at 5:07 pm
“IF Spurs offer Jefferson, rights to Splitter, and a draft pick, why wouldn’t the Raptors accept?”
The question is, why would Bosh do that? He is a free agent, and is interested in getting the biggest contract he can get. HE’S IN CONTROL OF THE SITUATION, NOT THE RAPTORS. Would Lebron to a sign & trade? Would Wade do a sign & trade? I don’t think so. If it was a sign & trade to a team that had cap space, perhaps. But Bosh is unlikely to settle for RJ’s 14.2 million when he’s making 15.8 million now. And besides, I’m not sure the Raptors have much use for replacing Bosh’s expiring with RJ’s expiring, when they have Hedo manning the SF spot (no, he’s not an acceptable power guy when you’ve got Mr. Softy, Bargnani at center), and the other guy (Splitter) may never show up.
“Your thinking is too myopic.”
Your thinking is borderline delusional.
“Jessie listed about 20 are you serious deals in a previous post.”
Jesse has no idea what he’s talking about on that list, and it has very little to do with our ability to successfully unload RJ in the OFF-SEASON for anything other than dog crap.
“If Gasol can be had for Kwame Brown, anything is possible.”
Well, that’s true. Miracles can sometimes happen. Too bad we don’t have someone like Jerry West in our back pocket that has ties with Toronto, and can sell Bosh on the dreams of raising a banner at the AT&T center!
Now, please. Can we stop with the Bosh nonsense.
May 11th, 2010 at 7:15 pm
@ Jim
Free agents that re-sign with their current teams are allowed to add an extra year to the contract PLUS more money per year. Bosh probably would love a sign and trade to a team he likes, seeing as he gets out of Canada and still gets the max deal possible.
May 11th, 2010 at 7:24 pm
My Gawd! Did anyone else see Boston run over the Cavs? I’ve never bought into all this “Lebron is going to _____ hype,” but if they lose in the conference semifinals I can see him at least entertaining the idea of going to Chicago or Miami.
There’s NO chance of Lebron going to SA, but there are a lot of chips to fall before the offseason and it all could affect SA in some way or another.
May 11th, 2010 at 7:44 pm
Parker could leave after next season and the Spurs would get nothing. Trading him now would at least bring something in return. Not sayin they should definitely trade him, but they’d be stupid to not at least listen to offers.
May 11th, 2010 at 7:52 pm
Jim
You still wanna guarantee that Cavs victory after tonight?
May 11th, 2010 at 7:54 pm
I like Duncan-Manu-Parker-Hill-Blair staying on this team unless some crazy offers come in because the owner on the other team was high.
Bonner is good on this team, but he is currently our #3 option in the big men department (Duncan, Dice).
Blair will continue to get better and hopefully we will have Splitter next year.
I think Jefferson will fit in better next year, but having him work on corner 3′s would make him a huge factor. I would like to trade hmi but I don’t see anyone taking him.
Dice played well, but is getting old and will need to be limited on minutes from here out. He can share remainder minutes with Bonner.
Mason wanted to leave at trade deadline, so I see him getting released if RC can’t make a deal. Thanks for the memories Roger!
Bogans got paid $800K for the year. I see him getting the same offer but hopefully he sits more than plays. He’s good against the Nets.
Temple and Hairston could be the future of this team. Get them with some good summer trainers and bring them off the bench.
It took us almost to the end of the season to get things in order, and by then, the other teams in the West were ready too. Hopefully the FO takes a look at what is out there and brings some talent to SA.
May 11th, 2010 at 7:57 pm
@ Jim Henderson,
We’ll agree to disagree on facts. If Bosh wants to play for the Spurs and a max contract, a sign and trade would have to take place. If the Raptors don’t want Bosh to leave for nothing, they’ll do a sign and trade with the team Bosh wants to go to. Jefferson makes $15 mil next yr and Bosh would make $16.2 mil, which is a trade that works.
Bosh would find the Spurs appealing because it’s a good team, near Dallas, and he’d get paid.
We’ll agree to disagree.
May 11th, 2010 at 8:04 pm
If I am Bosh, I am looking for (cash and) a talented young squad with an elite PG and a solid defensive big…
Milwaukee? Chicago?
Rumor is Portland would like to package Aldridge to get back Bosh.
If CB wants to be close to Dallas roots, he’ll listen to offers from Mavs, Rockets, Thunder, and Spurs (but as they don’t have’s young superstars, so it’ a gamblegoing to any TX team.) I have to say that I don’t know that Bosh makes SA a lock, though. Bosh in his prime is no Tim Duncan, he’s a little over-rated, a bit to soft, and has struggled even in the east where a great big man should be perennially in the playoffs! I don’t see him as our savior.
SA is a tough spot, guards are not are biggest team, but quickly become a problem with injury or trade to 3 top guards.
Will DB develop (or be given a chance to)??? We are pretty much screwed if we don’t get Splitter or he’s not worth the wait. Tim and and an improved DB + Splitter MIGHT do it inside, but we have other holes too. Got to get rid of RJ and get an 2-way player back, got to. Don’t know who we could get back though. The only other hope is if we just pickup 3 stud role players, and draft really well.
At this point, we might as well go all in with the stars we have, and try to get a truly enviable 1-8roster, than try to build for post-Duncan success. In the past, I have touted the merits of trading Parker and letting Manu run the O more, but barring a truly great PG perennial all-star it is, in fact, too crazy a gamble (okay, for Joe Johnson? Okay maybe). Instead, let’s think of TP as sixth man, and hopefully he continually betters his marksmanship.
Manu, Hill, TP
TD, Splitter, DB +
???
J. O’Neal?
Igoudala?
a ronnie brewer/aron affalo as a back up?
??
It’s an uphill battle folks. Anyone we get is gonna be flawed and regretful on a given night.
… here’s to a great draft + off season!
May 11th, 2010 at 8:36 pm
There’s alot of improvement that can come from within the team. Ginobili and Duncan need to work on their conditioning so they can play longer and still be effective. I never understood why Ginobili could only play 30-1 minutes. I know it’s because the Spurs try to save him because he play’s at such a high level. Yet it’s important to be on the floor since you can’t help your team from the bench. Just keeping everyone’s minutes low in the regular season really doesn’t help them develop the conditioning they need to play longer in the playoffs.
I think everyone needs to work on their 3pt shooting, especially Parker and Jefferson. They can do it just not consistently enough. I think it will really open up Jefferson’s game. If guys run him off the line he should be able to attack the rim. That’s something Bowen wasn’t that good at. The problem with getting a 3pt specialist is that their usually only good at that one thing so it hurts when they’re not making shots. Jefferson should work with Bruce Bowen to improve his defense. It would have helped in the series if he could have bothered Nash on defense like Bowen was able to. The problem with the Spurs playing Ginobili on Nash was that it used up his energy for offense.
May 11th, 2010 at 8:41 pm
I can’t really read all of the comments here, but I’ll throw in my name on the “We probably shouldn’t trade him, but we should at least listen to offers” side.
May 11th, 2010 at 9:00 pm
What about a trade with Oklahoma. Oklahoma has 3 picks in the top 32 and Manu would be a good fit. Get Harden, Collison or Krystic, and 1 or 2 of their draft picks.
May 11th, 2010 at 9:15 pm
@Jim, I agree Bosh isn’t coming and I don’t really want him, but the reason he’d do a sign-and-trade is that’s the only way he gets on a good team. As a free agent he’s limited to teams with cap space such as the Knicks.
@Hobson, our back and forth on Bonner is boring everyone, including me. What we say is irrelevant, anyway. If someone offers him 4-5m he’s gone, at 2-3m he stays a Spur.
May 11th, 2010 at 9:24 pm
I find it funny that I had no idea what I was talking about when I provided that list of deals that were done for pure financial reasons. They were all legitimate examples of how a team traded for expirings, but there’s no time to explain everything, eh?
Anyways, getting to the heart of the matter, and there probably will be a post on this soon…the only teams that are going to want Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili are teams for which either player would put them over the top. You’re not going to get very good trade offers from such teams because gutting their young talent would put them back where they started.
I know, I know, you don’t want to slip into a mediocre or terrible team. But the truth of the matter is that every team eventually crumbles unless you pick up a top three pick in a good draft or Chris Wallace trades you a top three pick (Bill Simmons paraphrase, but true). Cavs-LeBron, Lakers-Bryant, Gasol, Suns-Amare, Magic-Dwight Howard, Celtics-trading their lotto picks for KG and Jesus. All of these teams were built by bottoming out long enough to grab a cornerstone player (or being handed them if you’re LA). We have three cornerstone pieces right now, rebuilding now would promise a mediocre team and waste Duncan’s last few years.
May 11th, 2010 at 9:49 pm
Re: Monta Ellis and Al Jefferson
Tony Parker is a much better point guard than Ellis. So I’m not sure where you upgrade. And I like Al Jefferson pre-injury, but even that guy doesn’t solve the Spurs biggest problem vs. the Suns-Pick and Roll defense…He actually makes it worse. Plus, a guy like that needs to start…do you turn Timmy into a spot up shooter?
May 11th, 2010 at 9:51 pm
A suggestion: Let’s trade Manu Ginobili AND Tony Parker for Andre Iguodala, Dalembert, and Lou Williams.
May 11th, 2010 at 9:52 pm
@Mason,
Are you serious about your trade proposal? You want a big man who has had serious leg problems early on who most likely will never reach his potential and has many years left on his contract? Also helping L.A. to get parker and bosh, along with Kobe and Gasol would make them unbeatable. I dont think the Spurs Front Office wants to Gift Wrap 3 more rings to the Lakers. I surely hope you were kidding about your trade.
May 11th, 2010 at 9:55 pm
The Spurs have 2 major issues size and 3 point shooting. Tony Parker is a great player but doesn’t help in either category. So its not totally crazy to consider moving him for the right pieces. Obviously they should call around and see if they cant move RJ first. Find a team looking for financial relief like Indiana steal Granger and a big maybe Hibbert or Hansbourough for some of our garbage. Get ATL to sign and trade Joe Johnson for RJ, draft a big in the first round, sign a couple guys like daniel gibson or mikeal pertrus who can shoot and make a couple more runs at it
May 11th, 2010 at 10:16 pm
ThatBigGuy
May 11th, 2010 at 7:15 pm
If Bosh signs for too much in relation to RJ’s 15.2 mil., we simply could not afford to absorb his contract without tightly circumscribing our ability to make other important additions. For example, we hardly have any shooters, and our defense on the perimeter is lacking. And again, why would the Raptors want RJ? To share minutes with Hedo? The Raptors need a power player to score in the paint, not a guy that’s an inconsistent scorer in transition. And granted, they’ll lose Bosh’s salary, but they’d still be paying RJ 15 mil. What for? If I was the owner, I wouldn’t.
Colin
May 11th, 2010 at 7:52 pm
“Jim
You still wanna guarantee that Cavs victory after tonight?”
Yes, I do, although I’m impressed that Boston is attempting a “Custers Last Stand”. They did win a title together a couple of years ago though, so you definitely can’t take them lightly. That said, if the Cavs were to lose, it’s a big choke. They have too much talent, and of course LeBron. If they pick up the intensity, they should still win this series.
Shawn
May 11th, 2010 at 9:00 pm
“What about a trade with Oklahoma. Oklahoma has 3 picks in the top 32 and Manu would be a good fit. Get Harden, Collison or Krystic, and 1 or 2 of their draft picks.”
Hey Shawn, you’re my man! Take a look at my post earlier on this thread:
Jim Henderson
May 11th, 2010 at 1:10 pm
“We must be willing to evolve smartly to stay highly competitive! That MAY mean NOT committing to keeping Parker and/or Ginobli til death do us part. Otherwise we could end up like the Celtics of the 1990’s in the next 3-4 years. We need MORE high quality YOUNG talent on our team. Hell, all we know that we really have in this regard is Hill & Blair. That’s not enough. As a result, we should explore trades similar to the following: Ginobli & McDyess to OKC for 20 yr. old SG James Harden (who has star written all over his future, and he’s REALLY good right now), the 29 yr. old, and productive rotation player, the 6′10″, 255 pd. Nick Collison (or the 26 yr. old 7 footer, Krstic, if we’d prefer, because they would still have the up & coming star, Ibaka), and 23 yr. old, 6′9″, 251 pd. PF D.J. White (who has some promise), particularly if we’re never going to play Mahinmi, otherwise the third player could be someone else, or a 1st round draft pick; OKC has plenty of other young talent to choose from as well. They would love to have Manu, and would probably do that deal. Granted, this might not be the right type of deal for us, but we’ve got to start thinking along these lines if we want to avoid the potential of a “dark” half decade or more, starting mid-decade, or perhaps a bit earlier.”
May 11th, 2010 at 10:32 pm
” (By the way, the only other “older” team, similar to us, is the Celtics – and I guarantee you, they will lose to Cleveland – the only reason they are staying in that series thus far is the “out of this world” performances by their “young” star, Rondo)”.
“Jim
You still wanna guarantee that Cavs victory after tonight?”
@JIM
I sometimes doubt your “expertise and assessment” and here above are two reasons.
Contrary to the Spurs, Pierce (vs Manu)performed,Rondo is TP (when 100%) starter, and the role guys are there, and CAVS just like MAVS are kinda of overrated teams , just like Suns who will get beaten by Lakers who themselves would probably loose in an highly competitive NBA FINALS vs Magic or Celtics!!
Then we all go to SOUTH AFRICA WC2010
Allez la FRANCE
May 11th, 2010 at 10:45 pm
SPURSGERMANY
May 10th, 2010 at 5:59 am
“facts: in game 1 the spurs were down one with 4:26 left. in game 2 the score was tied with 10:01 left. in game 3 the spurs were up one with 10:10 left. in game 4 the score was tied with 9:36 left.
every game this series was up for grabs in the final quarter, and the suns grabbed them all.”
Very bitter!!
AND WE DID NOT HAVE :
-A (Young) solid shot-blocker to defend Amare…
-A solid (1 or 2) 3 point-shooter(s) who make the 3s….(R.Bell)
-A stopper defender like Bowen(S.Battier), we really need to update here, dragic nash and co tunneled in the 4th like in a butter cake…..
-The POP willingly to adapt his system to his (best) players……
GH did it in sommer 2009 now Blair should and must do it…DEVELOP all 2010 summer long; i do not think he likes soccer (WC2010!!!),other!!
We got beat by our own guys(Judas-Steve Kerr and Alvin Gentry)!!
-Mason, Bonner, McDyess, Bogans, Jefferson:
POP HOLT BUFORD; just work something here financially ,technically do you clean or you dont
we do not want see us being beaten by a UA PHOENIX OR DALLAS; HOW MUCH MONEY YOU HAVE?? TRADE FIRST RJ TO CUBAN AND LET US GET DIRK!!!!
God Bless You All; WE ARE HEALTHY AND ALIVE; WE WILL COME BACK STRONGER NEXT YEAR( but please without Jefferson, Mason,and some other guys)
THE MANAGEMENT IS JUST TOO GOOD TO MESS UP THE LAST 2 YEARS OF OLD TIMMY.
POP if you stay put, what do you make with these guys : Hairston, Temple, Mahinmi, Gee, Jerrells(Blair,McDyess,Bonner)
WELL BUSY SUMMER 2010.
POP ,R.C BUFORD :
Please do not forget Nando De Colo ,an hell of a shooter, by far average a better shooter than most of the guys in NBA, that we (FANS!!) are talking about here.
He can make the 3s daggers , jumpshots, can penetrate and has an high Basket IQ!!!
AND he is a very good economical solution.
ALLEZ LA FRANCE
WC2010 WINNER
May 11th, 2010 at 10:46 pm
doggydogworld
May 11th, 2010 at 9:15 pm
“As a free agent he’s limited to teams with cap space such as the Knicks.”
I don’t think he’d mind playing on Miami with Wade for a premo contract. Do you?
Jesse Blanchard
May 11th, 2010 at 9:24 pm
“……… the only teams that are going to want Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili are teams for which either player would put them over the top.”
If that’s the case, OKC is one of them. See my trade proposal on this thread.
“You’re not going to get very good trade offers from such teams because gutting their young talent would put them back where they started.”
OKC has more QUALITY young talent than they know what to do with. Conversely, they have VERY FEW top quality veterans. Thus, if they want to truly challenge soon, they need to pursue a guy like the 33 year old Ginobli. They cannot win in the next few years without a talented veteran with considerable playoff experience. Manu would be a perfect fit there, and could put them over the top.
“We have three cornerstone pieces right now, rebuilding now would promise a mediocre team and waste Duncan’s last few years.”
Our “cornerstone” pieces looked a little tired up against the young, gun-slinging Suns. They’re simply too old now to be paired with a mediocre supporting cast, and we have no way of injecting life into that group without a trade of TP or Manu. No cap space, no money, and no magic wand. And trading one player is not rebuilding. On the other hand, not trading TP or Manu is consigning Duncan to 1st/2nd round playoff exits for the rest of his career.
May 11th, 2010 at 10:47 pm
i think you have to listen to offers, but we’re not likely to hear anything worth pulling the trigger.
my 2 cents is that we need just a few things to contend. the sad truth is that the 3 abandoned us, we had no shut-down bowen, and tim’s pick and roll d is diminished. so that’s what we get:
1. anthony morrow, as some have mentioned before, is one of the greatest shooters in the game today. i say we get him. mike miller is out of our price range. also, apparently we’re working out paul george from fresno st. interesting to see if we pick him up in the draft, though i’d rather see us pick a big.
2. a luc richard mbah a moute or jared dudley type. i don’t care who we go after as long as they can body up and shut down someone. hitting a corner 3 would be a nice bonus. yes i love bruce bowen. tasmin mitchell from lsu is someone to consider drafting in the 2nd round if free agents aren’t going to cut it.
3. yeah, we need splitter to make the jump. i have to go back on my prior opinions and agree with some here that a shot-blocking big would be ideal. i know people don’t want to give up on ian, but c’mon i’ve improved my game more rapidly in the last 2 years. let’s look at solomon alabi in the draft. at least he could give us some quality minutes on d.
May 11th, 2010 at 10:54 pm
SPURSGERMANY
May 11th, 2010 at 10:32 pm
““Jim
You still wanna guarantee that Cavs victory after tonight?””
Yes, I do, although I’m impressed that Boston is attempting a “Custers Last Stand”. They did win a title together a couple of years ago though, so you definitely can’t take them lightly. That said, if the Cavs were to lose, it’s a big choke. They have too much talent, and of course LeBron. If they pick up their intensity, they should still win this series.
May 11th, 2010 at 11:26 pm
Spurs’ problem this season was their lack of depth and outside shooting. They had hoped — vainly — that Mason would regain his form. Jefferson was acquired as an insurance against the perennial injuries plaguing the Big 3, but the move eventually backfired during the playoffs when the Big 3 all returned healthy and RJ was exposed as an ill-fitting piece in the Spurs’ offensive scheme. He couldn’t nail a jumper when his defender helped off him during the Phoenix series.
I don’t agree that SA should break up the Big 3. It’s still the team’s core and even though Duncan is not the dominant player he once was, the other two have shown during the playoffs that they are still All-Star caliber players. And Parker is just at the peak of his career. We really haven’t seen the Big 3 healthy all season, and when they got healthy the necessary support pieces weren’t there. Give the Big 3 at least another run next year.
Spurs just need to replace Mason and maybe Jefferson with shooters. They would also need to replace McDyess with a big, young man to provide TD with much needed help in manning the paint. McDyess has performed relatively well during the playoffs, but he’s old and TD would need someone to back him up for the long grind next season.
May 12th, 2010 at 2:32 am
The first priority this summer is sign Tiango Splitter, if we get that done it’s silly to trade Parker. If we don’t and the offer is right trading parker for a servicable point guard ( bibby ) and athletic boarderline all star ( Josh Smith ) might make sense. Atlanta might want Dice or Bonner (sign and trade) as well. The other option is to hold until Feb then trade RJ , teams would definetly find his $15 M of the books attractive. A team with an athletic big out of the playoff picture would certainly bite.
the spurs 20th 1st round pick hopefully turns into a rotation player. with that plus our starting 5, Hill splitter and blair , makes up our rotation.
May 12th, 2010 at 5:11 am
what part of that video does RC say that trading Tony would be crazy? Though I think it would be, I don’t think RC ever said that.
May 12th, 2010 at 6:04 am
It’s already been said by Jim Henderson, but there is no way Bosh lands in SA. He would have absolutely no leverage to force a trade to SA since he can’t sign outright. The Spurs signing Bosh is a pipe dream.
@Jim Henderson,
You’re right about OKC having a glut of young talent, and maybe they would be prime for a trade. But it seems that Presti keeps passing up opportunities to acquire veterans by giving up a couple of young guys. It seems that he just wants to let his team grow into a contender. Maybe he reconsiders, but I have a feeling he is going to stay the course after the Thunder made a decent showing in the playoffs this year.
@Jesse,
I like your trade proposal with the 76ers. I’ve always liked Iguodala - he seems like a Spurs type of player. But he makes max money. Do you really think the Spurs would swing a deal for a max contract when the player can’t be the best player on a championship team? I say no.
May 12th, 2010 at 6:14 am
Let’s be serious. Bosh isn’t coming to San Antonio. There’s tons of teams that make more seense and even if he just wanted to be close to Dallas, the Mavs, Rockets, and Thunder all make much more sense than the Spurs.
May 12th, 2010 at 6:40 am
DO NOT BREAKUP THE CORE OF THIS TEAM. GINOBILI, DUNCAN, & PARKER = SPURS FOR LIFE!!
IF PARKER IS TRADED, SAY GOODBYE TO THE SPURS FRANCHISE AS WE KNOW IT.
May 12th, 2010 at 6:55 am
bosh does not come to san antonio and i don’t think trading an elite point guard is the right desicion. we may get a handful of contributors, but i don’t see us getting a bosh quality player.
@ jim
i don’t think trading manu is good for the franchise. i’m sure the at&t center was blowing up with people wanting to renew their season tickets when word got out that manu was resigned. even with age and injuries, manu puts asses in seats and that is arguably more valuble than making trades for title contention. trading manu would create a havoc amongst a fan base who will refuse to understand the business accumen of such a desicion.
trading antonio mcdyess may be one of our best options. perhaps we can acquire a veteran spot-up-shooter and hope that mahinmi or someone else can fill out the center/back up center position we may have to go deep into our pockets to earn acquire a player like splitter. i think our best case scenario is a productive summer for dejuan, tiago on his way, acquiring a solid shooter, and hoping that guys like mahinmi or hairston or temple can become rotation defenders and we get another steal in the draft. i just don’t expect anything splashy. even if we trade parker for some solid talent, we will still have to undergo a “jefferson” year of arduous adjusting to our system which would inevitably lead duncan limping towards another early exit.
i think there is a heavy degree of faith in the offseason
May 12th, 2010 at 7:39 am
Express News already has some vague chatter via NY Daily that NY wants in on TP and a Spurs source mentions that Spurs would have open interest. Not that it says much but this comes only 2 days after the end of the season….
May 12th, 2010 at 7:40 am
RJ,
I have to agree. Manu’s health is a gamble, but when healthy I would argue that he gives us more bang for our buck than anyone in the league. Trading him for someone younger hurts our chances at winning next year. Add to that the fact that he’s a fan favorite and sells tickets then I just don’t see how you trade him.
It’s hard to get a good value for trading someone older who’s good for someone who’s young with potential. If they’re young and already producing at a high level then they’re too valuable an asset to trade. If they’re not producing at a high level yet, (like Harden) then it’s a huge gamble, one you may take if you’re rebuilding but not one you take if you’re trying to make a deep run in postseason play.
May 12th, 2010 at 8:22 am
I read that article too, TK. The problem is, the Knicks have absolutely nothing to offer. Gallinari is their only valuable trade piece (and would probably make Pop cream his pants with his ability to space the floor). However, the Rockets gutted them with the McGrady trade. They don’t even have a 1st round pick in the next 2 years, nor their 1st round pick from last year. I don’t see the Spurs trading TP for Gallinari and anybody else on the roster.
May 12th, 2010 at 8:23 am
FYI -
I think Jesse was being facetious with his proposed trade to Phily….I’d rather not rehash that whole discussion….
On Chris Bosh, Wade, Lebron, et al: Most big time FA’s do get moved via sign and trade. Most times the team in which the FA is leaving want to end up with nothing in return. Though it’s correct that the current teams have no way to force a sign and trade on the FA, a sign and trade is almost always the best way for the FA to get to a decent team (most teams with cap space are usually in the rebuilding process). And this year, Miami is the only playoff team with enough cap space to sign a max player.
This year might be a little different. You have Miami, a playoff team, that might intrigue a top player outright, w/o the need for a sign and trade. And you have NY and Madison Square, the Mecca of basketball.
I’m not too good with predictions, but I’d be willing to bet that IF Bosh, Wade, or J. Johnson leaves their respective teams, it will be via a sign and trade. Lebron and Boozer, however, are two guys that I can see signing outright with an under the cap team.
Bosh - Colangelo has to get something in return. Losing the cornerstone of the franchise for nothing might lose him his job, and even thats no guarantee.
Wade - though I expect him to stay put, he’s from Chicago. In order for him to land there, I believe a sign and trade is necessary.
J. Johnson - w/o Johnson, Atlanta is still a borderline playoff contender, meaning they’ll want assets in return to try and compete in the future. However, signing with NY means a sign and trade isn’t necessary. Could go either way with him.
Lebron - This is the wildcard. His decision will greatly impact the rest of the FA class. Too early to tell what he’s going to do, but my gut says NY. If that’s the case, I doubt a sign and trade with NY is likely - what assets would the Cavs want?
Boozer - Jazz want to get under the cap. Under very few circumstances would they entertain taking on much salary in return. Also, Miami has been rumored the preferred destination for some time, which wouldn’t necessitate a sign and trade.
In short, I think we’ll see most of this FA class move via the sign and trade. I expect that market to be pretty hot this summer.
One more thing - moving TP would be a mistake - you’re essentially saying the Spurs cannot compete for a title in the next 2-3 years and you totally shut the already closing TD window. If you move TP, you might as well start a total rebuild/youth movement. I love George Hill and what he brings to the table, but he’s not a starting PG for a contender.
May 12th, 2010 at 8:29 am
@ David G
Exactly. The package the Spurs could put together isn’t close to what a team like Dallas or OKC could offer Toronto. A trade to SA would be more lopsided than the Gasol deal.
Also, don’t sleep on the Rockets - they have a lot of assets to offer in any sign and trade….those NY picks will look great if NY doesn’t sign Lebron or Wade….and plus, Darryl Morey is one heckuva GM.
May 12th, 2010 at 9:16 am
I don’t think NY has much to offer either. Gallinari would be beneficial but as a strong role player who, as you say, could spread the floor.
The article also mentions there is SA interest in Rudy Gay. I have no clue who would mention that from the front office, but say the Spurs could entice a 3rd team with NY to somehow pick Gallinari, Gay, and something extra while unloading TP and Jefferson (what if RJ’s contract was the deal breaker to get TP to NY).
I don’t know what is right or wrong and I would prefer to see Parker here in SA (as a major fan of TP and the community) but I feel there is room to wonder off of whats been documented (although just rumors).
Here’s the article link listed on the Express News…
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/basketball/knicks/2010/05/12/2010-05-12_if_san_antonio_guard_tony_parker_becomes_available_new_york_knicks_could_be_will.html
May 12th, 2010 at 9:24 am
@Bryan and TK, you are absolutely right. The Knicks have stripped their roster in an effort to get 2 big Free Agents this summer so they really have nothing to offer. If I could read the Knicks minds, I would guess that they are looking to sign and trade David Lee (who is an unrestricted Free Agent). I’ve always been under the impression that Lee was not in their long term plans so they would essentially be giving away someone they had no intention to sign to get Parker. Perhaps they would throw in Gallinari to make the trade look like this:
Knicks Get: Tony Parker $13.5mill/year
Spurs Get: David Lee (new contract at $10-11 mill/year) AND Danillo Gallinari at $3 mill/year
The specifics of this trade are speculative, but in theory, it would make a good deal of sense for both sides. The Spurs would get a great PF plus someone to space the court and the Knicks would get their first big free agent of the summer and be able to use Parker to lure another big fish. The Spurs could then use the MLE to either bring over Splitter, making the Spurs front line as formidable as the Lakers, or sign a good shooter or two.
Two comments about this highly speculative trade: Would Lee be enough to help Duncan with interior defense? Gallinari at 6’10″ plays the SF position, so where does this leave RJ assuming we can’t use Gall as a stretch 4? I know this possible trade isn’t perfect, but it does make a good deal of sense for both teams. I’m not neccessarily for or against this trade, but this has to be similar to what the Knicks are looking to do. What do you guys think?
May 12th, 2010 at 9:35 am
@Hobson,
I think Lee is a good player who brings lots of hustle to the table. However, I think Dejaun Blair can end up being almost as good at a fraction of the price. Lee also doesn’t answer the team’s interior defense problem, as he is a subpar defender.
But I had forgotten about the mention on the Spurs interest in Gay in the article. I guess there could conceivably be a 3-way trade in which the Spurs land Gay for Parker. And if we could get RJ off the books in the process, even better.
May 12th, 2010 at 9:40 am
DeJuan Blair would put up similar numbers as David Lee on that team. Lee is a better shooter but DeJuan is more athletic and his shot will improve. Both are the same height (as measured by standing reach, as my dad always says you don’t play basketball with the top of your head).
DeJuan is infinitely more cost-effective. Develop what we have instead of wrecking the team to duplicate existing players.
May 12th, 2010 at 10:57 am
David Lee and Gallinari. So the Spurs would be giving up on defense then?
May 12th, 2010 at 11:19 am
Exactly. And we know that is never happening under Pop’s watch.
May 12th, 2010 at 11:25 am
That NY Daily News article doesn’t seem very newsworthy to me — at the end, it also talks about how the Knicks might get Chris Paul. Ummmm, right, that’s going to happen.
May 12th, 2010 at 11:28 am
The Knicks are going to look to sign and trade David Lee. Not only is he an enticing asset to some teams, but moving him will free up enough room to possibly sign another good FA, although not a max guy. In theory, NY could land Lebron, Bosh/Wade, and another good piece (in the $6-8M range I believe though I’m not 100% sure on that).
As he pertains to the Spurs, I don’t see how much better we get with Lee. Sure, he’s a good player, but Dejaun should replicate a lot of what Lee brings to the table (IF Dejuan continues to improve, which I think he will) at a fraction of the price. The best bargains in the NBA are productive players still in their rookie contracts. Plus, as other have pointed out, Lee doesn’t exactly light the world on fire defensively.
And Gallo? Great shooter, but again, not great defensively.
May 12th, 2010 at 11:54 am
Jim
We’ll see on your Cavs-Celtics assessment. I’m not quite buying your take on that one…………….If the Cavs lose I wouldn’t consider it a choke. They had more wins this regular season which makes them look great, but they aren’t necessarily “better” than the Celtics. The Celtics have a championship and the Cavs haven’t figured out how to win one…..yet. The Celts still need to close ‘em out to make it real.
May 12th, 2010 at 12:07 pm
I really think we’re barking up the wrong tree, here. The FIRST question is what we can get for RJ, right? If we can get role players who fill at least 2 of the 3 big needs we have (shooting, shot-blocking, & defense on the wings) in a salary dump for RJ, then I don’t think it makes any sense to trade Tony.
May 12th, 2010 at 12:14 pm
Outside of Gasol has any salary dumb really worked out in the past few years? What role players would a team give up for Jefferson? I personally I’m not counting on Jefferson giving the Spurs more than he gave them this year.
May 12th, 2010 at 12:36 pm
Would anyone be against a sign and trade for Rudy Gay? He’s no lockdown defender but he’s as good an addition as we can get. I’d personally be open to trading anyone outside TD, Manu, and TP for him for the right deal
May 12th, 2010 at 12:57 pm
If we keep RJ for next season, I imagine he’ll improve. Not by putting up a lot more stats, but by being more consistent.
May 12th, 2010 at 1:41 pm
muwu
May 12th, 2010 at 12:36 pm
“Would anyone be against a sign and trade for Rudy Gay? He’s no lockdown defender but he’s as good an addition as we can get. I’d personally be open to trading anyone outside TD, Manu, and TP for him for the right deal”
Besides Hill, Blair, and the Big 3, who else do we have that would even remotely entice the Grizz. They don’t want an overpaid, underproductive RJ (they’d just resign Gay) and they don’t need a salary dump. Besides, I’m not a huge fan of RG. Sure, he’s the prototypical NBA 3, but if you look at his stats, he’s not a good shooter. Here is a comparison between RJ and RG. Come to your own conclusions:
RG:
FG%: 46.6% 3pt%: 32.7% FT%: 75.3% TS%: 53.5%
RJ
FG% 46.7% 3pt%: 31.6% FT%: 73.5% TS%: 55.1%
Gay is young, athletic, and big so he could be an elite defender (you could also say this about a number of guys), but so far he’s not lived up to any potential in that area. Three team deals are very difficult to pull off, but if we traded Parker and unloaded RJ along with him, we would have to get a HELL of a lot more back than just Rudy Gay and spare parts. Perhaps someone else has more insight as to what we might get back in this highly unlikely trade.
May 12th, 2010 at 1:47 pm
The FO aint trading any of the big 3 so let’s stop the nonsense. If they had any intentions they wouldn’t have re-signed MANU. Of course never say never.
I mean to sound like a broken record, they need SHOOTERS baby!!! Plain and simple. The main reason SPURS took out MAVS was GHILL hit that open 3. He fizzled in the second round.
I know they don’t have money to spend but here are some shooters that SPURS could go after:
J.J. REdick(restricted) He’s a shooter so I put him in.
Travis OUtlaw
Al Harrington
Mike Miller
Matt Barnes
Jordan Farmar(I think he knows how to hit open 3s.)
Steve Blake
Anthony Morrow
Kyle Korver
With the exception of maybe Reddick and Korver, the rest of these guys can be signed for a ham sandwich.
May 12th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
Rudy Gay? Why do fans come up with out of this world scenario’s. The Spurs have zero percent chance of of signing Rudy Gay this Summer.
1. Rudy Gay is a restricted Free Agent. He cannot sign with any team he wants.
2. I would put money that some desperate team will offer Gay a 5 year max deal. The Griz are likely to match this, but if they didn’t they’d work out a sign and trade with the team that offered Gay that deal. The Spurs can’t even offer him a FA deal because they have no cap room.
3. Ignoring point two, I am also sure that the Griz could get more for Gay than what the Spurs would be willing to offer in a sign and trade deal.
4. Has any young free agent ever wanted to come to San Antonio? I remember vets signing to win a title but a young player? Specifically a Young African American Player? Gay in particular doesn’t strike me as a player who thinks championship first, and money, nightlife, women, club scene behind winning as a priority.
May 12th, 2010 at 2:07 pm
I think that Gay can be our franchise player after Duncan leaves, so it would be good if we could unload him for parker or jefferson.
Also, we should try and also pry Marc Gasol for a pick and a couple d leaguers. He is going to be just as good as his older brother on the lakers soon, and this lopsided trade will benefit us and make pop happy.
May 12th, 2010 at 2:14 pm
the wanderer
May 11th, 2010 at 11:26 pm
“Spurs just need to replace Mason and maybe Jefferson with shooters. They would also need to replace McDyess with a big, young man to provide TD with much needed help in manning the paint.”
How are you going to make all of these upgrades? By magic wand?
analyzed
May 12th, 2010 at 2:32 am
You’re assessment of our needs, and your imaginary proposed solutions, are what I call, “living in a state of delusion.”
Bryan
May 12th, 2010 at 6:04 am
“Presti keeps passing up opportunities to acquire veterans by giving up a couple of young guys. It seems that he just wants to let his team grow into a contender. Maybe he reconsiders, but I have a feeling he is going to stay the course after the Thunder made a decent showing in the playoffs this year.”
All GM’s want to win NOW. Presti is no exception. They’re not going to win a title with ALL 23 year olds. Never been done before. As long as he can keep his main young pieces (e.g., Durant, Westbrook, Green, Ibaka), he would be thrilled to be able to bring in championship-tested veterans to help guide his team over the hump, sooner than one could have realistically expected otherwise. Having a guy like Manu is a perfect way for them to nurture that young talent from another veteran player, like Manu. There’s only so much that coaches can do to develop a player. Savvy veterans can play an important role.
“I like your trade proposal with the 76ers. I’ve always liked Iguodala – he seems like a Spurs type of player. But he makes max money. Do you really think the Spurs would swing a deal for a max contract when the player can’t be the best player on a championship team? I say no.”
Sorry, but you, like others, undervalue Iguodala, the only player other than LeBron James to average 17+ppg., 6+rpg., & 5.5+apg. In addition, Dalembert could be a crucial pick-up to regain the “protect the rim” defense of our championship years (7th in the league in blocks). It’s a risky deal, but it’s getting a lot back in return, and filling critical needs on our team. Also, ALL of the players in the proposed deal are between 24-28 years old. It’s a hard thing for a lot of people on here to understand: WE NEED MORE QUALITY YOUTH TO TRULY CONTEND AGAIN.
David G
May 12th, 2010 at 6:14 am
“Let’s be serious. Bosh isn’t coming to San Antonio. There’s tons of teams that make more seense and even if he just wanted to be close to Dallas, the Mavs, Rockets, and Thunder all make much more sense than the Spurs.”
Agreed!
Rudy
May 12th, 2010 at 6:40 am
“DO NOT BREAKUP THE CORE OF THIS TEAM. GINOBILI, DUNCAN, & PARKER = SPURS FOR LIFE!!
IF PARKER IS TRADED, SAY GOODBYE TO THE SPURS FRANCHISE AS WE KNOW IT.”
WRONG, and short-sighted thinking!!
rj
May 12th, 2010 at 6:55 am
“i don’t think trading manu is good for the franchise. i’m sure the at&t center was blowing up with people wanting to renew their season tickets when word got out that manu was resigned.”
Your post is filled to the brim with “hope”, while clinging to the status quo. We need to take bold, decisive action. We’re at a critical inflection point for this organization. We build a winning team for years to come and the fans will be fine with a Manu trade. Many fans would have a problem at first, but they’ll come along in due time. In fact, they’ll be clamoring for tickets to see Hill, Harden, Parker, & Blair light up the opposing team night in and night out with power moves, slam dunks, streaks to the rim, and three point bombs. We need to stop holding on to the past, and release our grip from the cult of personality. Manu’s a fun player, but lets stick to business, and project a young and exciting vision for our future as a franchise. The fans always respond to a fresh and exciting approach. And of course, the “W’s”, which will come in bunches in due time.
bduran
May 12th, 2010 at 7:40 am
“If they’re not producing at a high level yet, (like Harden) then it’s a huge gamble, one you may take if you’re rebuilding but not one you take if you’re trying to make a deep run in postseason play.”
Ten points per game in 20 mpg. at age 20 is pretty damn good. Just look at his game, and his athletic attributes. This guy’s on the verge of breaking out, in the right situation. He’d be a great fit here, would pair perfectly with TP & Hill, and would be the third young wheel for our future. If we started him, or played him 30 mpg., he’d average 16ppg. Is that a problem? Plus we’d have two other young pieces in the deal. Krstic is a solid, 26 yr. old 7 footer. The third piece would be a lesser known young, or a relatively high draft pick (30 or below). If we don’t start making these types of moves, we’re taking a BIG risk of becoming the Celtics of the 1990′s!
And by the way, in case you haven’t figured it out yet, WE DON’T HAVE THE TEAM TO MAKE A DEEP POST-SEASON RUN. And we aren’t going to get there by tinkering with minimal, sub-par additions, which is ALL we can do with our cap situation.
Tyler
May 12th, 2010 at 8:23 am
“FYI –
I think Jesse was being facetious with his proposed trade to Phily….I’d rather not rehash that whole discussion….”
Yes, I agree!
“And this year, Miami is the only playoff team with enough cap space to sign a max player.”
Yes, and as result, they are the prohibitive favorite to land Bosh. It’s Boozer or Bosh to Miami. I say they take Bosh. The numbers & upside are in his favor. I don’t think Bosh would mind playing with Wade. Do you?
“In short, I think we’ll see most of this FA class move via the sign and trade. I expect that market to be pretty hot this summer.”
Perhaps, but Bosh is unlikely to be one of them.
“One more thing – moving TP would be a mistake – you’re essentially saying the Spurs cannot compete for a title in the next 2-3 years and you totally shut the already closing TD window. If you move TP, you might as well start a total rebuild/youth movement. I love George Hill and what he brings to the table, but he’s not a starting PG for a contender.”
The Spurs cannot compete for a title in the next 2-3 years as currently constructed. And we have little ability to improve sufficiently through the FA market with our cap situation. In any trade of TP, we would have to get a competent point guard in return as part of the deal. I agree that trading TP would be a bit harder than trading Manu. Trading either is not an easy decision, but we need to gradually start a rebuilding process now, or we will almost assuredly be without at title, not just over the next 2-3 years, but perhaps for as long as a decade or more. And that is a prospect that I for one am not too keen about.
Hobson13
May 12th, 2010 at 9:24 am
Well, that trade proposal at least has some semblance of reality, Hobson. It all depends on how high the Knicks are on Gallinari, and how high they are on Parker being a key piece in their rebuilding process. The Knicks would have to land 1-2 other major free agents for this to make sense, in my view. From our end, Lee’s not really the best fit, but a solid player. Gallanari is a better fit, if we can get him to improve his “D”.
“I think Lee is a good player who brings lots of hustle to the table. However, I think Dejaun Blair can end up being almost as good at a fraction of the price. Lee also doesn’t answer the team’s interior defense problem, as he is a subpar defender.”
Yes. Very astute. That is a big reason why Lee is not the perfect fit for the Spurs. I’m sure Hobson would not disagree.
Colin
May 12th, 2010 at 11:54 am
Look, I don’t have a crystal ball on any given playoff series. Otherwise, I’d be in Vegas, rich. The Celtics have some great “old” players that are trying to make, literally, their last stand, and they’re being propelled by an amazing “young” stud, in Rondo.
So please, don’t give me twenty lashes if the Celtics win! And yes, it would be a Cavs choke if they were to lose this series.
Joe
May 12th, 2010 at 12:07 pm
“If we can get role players who fill at least 2 of the 3 big needs we have (shooting, shot-blocking, & defense on the wings) in a salary dump for RJ……”
That’s never going to happen. Can we move on now?
David G
May 12th, 2010 at 12:14 pm
“Outside of Gasol has any salary dumb really worked out in the past few years? What role players would a team give up for Jefferson? I personally I’m not counting on Jefferson giving the Spurs more than he gave them this year.”
Exactly! Certainly not BEFORE next February’s trade deadline. And by that time you can kiss next season goodbye.
May 12th, 2010 at 2:21 pm
Jim
No lashes dude. just givin’ you shit on the “guarantee” you gave.
May 12th, 2010 at 2:25 pm
David G
May 12th, 2010 at 2:01 pm
Great post. Very funny!
May 12th, 2010 at 2:33 pm
Colin
May 12th, 2010 at 2:21 pm
Okay, that’s cool. Fair enough. But remember, it’s not over until “the fat lady sings”! But rest assured, I won’t be gloating if the Cavs win. My whole point in the context of the “guarantee” was that “old” teams generally do not win titles, and that the Spurs main starters/rotation players are now too old to compete for a title. And I still stick to that view, regardless of what happens to the Celtics this year. That team is on its last leg. We’ve already finished off ours. We need an injection of “young” blood.
May 12th, 2010 at 3:19 pm
Why would Lakers give up 22 yr old Bynum?
1. To get Bosh
2. Injury prone
If we can get a big man for Parker, whether it be David Lee or Bynum, you have to do it. I agree though, Parker probably wouldn’t be that great of a fit in the triangle.
May 12th, 2010 at 3:37 pm
Try this trade:
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=248gadr
Makes sense to me!
SAS gets: James Posey, Daren Collison and Marc Gasol
NOH gets: OJ Mayo and Mike Conley +salary relief
Memphis: Tony Parker
May 12th, 2010 at 4:11 pm
Tim
May 12th, 2010 at 3:37 pm
Tim, let me get this straight:
You expect Memphis to entirely gut their young team by giving up Marc Gasol, O.J. Mayo, & Mike Conley (Gay is a FA) to get Tony Parker?!
I’ll just considerate this trade proposal a belated April’s fools joke.
May 12th, 2010 at 5:30 pm
I hope Tony Parker doesn’t get traded and here’s why
http://www.operaforthemasses.com/2010/05/watching-sun-set-look-back-the-spurs.html
May 12th, 2010 at 5:50 pm
@Jim:
“That’s never going to happen. Can we move on now?”
Just one example: RJ to the Warriors for Maggette, Turiaf, and a signed-and-traded Morrow
Turiaf = shot-blocking, Morrow = shooting
The Warriors are on the block. Typically when teams are sold, they sell off long-term contracts to reduce the financial commitment for prospective buyers and increase the sales price of the franchise. That deal is entirely doable, with the only question being whether our ownership is willing to take on long-term money in exchange for RJ.
That’s one example off the top of my head.
May 12th, 2010 at 5:59 pm
Further on that point:
There may be fire sales this summer the likes of which we have not seen before. This is the last chance to dump long-term commitments before the new CBA.
If you’re a team like Denver, who even when healthy is a fringe contender, do you continue to hold onto contracts that will carry you deep into the luxury tax for a few more years and give you no flexibility to sign future FAs, or do you call it a good run and dump some salary for cap relief and a draft pick or two? I don’t know how they answer that question, but I would bet it’s something that they have to take a long and hard look at this summer.
May 12th, 2010 at 6:54 pm
Joe
May 12th, 2010 at 5:50 pm
Okay, Joe. The Warriors are one organization that might be willing to really blow some things up for cap relief. That said, there’s one problem: Magette’s game is A LOT like RJ’s. Thus, I’m sure the Spur FO would not be willing to take on the salary commitment for him (even though he’s nice player, and “might” end up performing for us much better than RJ did).
On the other hand, lets see how desperate the Warriors are to gain substantial cap relief. I would seriously consider assuming Biedrins 9 mil. per year, 5 year contract, and Turiaf’s 4 mil. per year 2 year contract, and do a sign & trade for Morrow or Azubuike for no more than 4 mil. per year, for RJ and his expiring. Granted, the Spurs are making significant salary commitments with this type of deal, but I do like the players that I named. After such a deal, I would probably want to turn around and trade McDyess for another 3-point shooter and/or perimeter defender.
Of course, this scenario is still a wing & a prayer, but in my view it is worth entertaining as a remote possibility.
May 12th, 2010 at 7:12 pm
Jim
“Yes. Very astute. That is a big reason why Lee is not the perfect fit for the Spurs. I’m sure Hobson would not disagree.
@Jim and Dogg, I agree that while this would be an interesting trade, the front line of Lee and Duncan would be far from a perfect marriage. As you both agreed, just not enough size or defense to help Duncan out in his later years.
Joe
May 12th, 2010 at 5:50 pm
“Just one example: RJ to the Warriors for Maggette, Turiaf, and a signed-and-traded Morrow
Turiaf = shot-blocking, Morrow = shooting”
I agree with your points and trade suggestion. I suggested a very similar trade except I had Anthony Randolph instead of Turiaf. Ronny is definitely a big boy and can block shots, but he has little offensive game. His complete lack of offense would prohibit him from starting (in my opinion). Randolph on the other hand, could provide decent shot blocking and with time, could challenge the stretch 4′s like Stoudamire, Jamison, Aldridge, and maybe Bosh. He has HUGE potential that is being pissed away at Golden State. Randolph needs a team of winners and a good coach to help him mature into the beast he can become.
One last point: So much this summer depends upon our ability to sign Splitter at the MLE. If he can be signed, then we could possibly move RJ to fill a couple of gaping holes on the bench. In this scenario, Parker would still be a Spur (which I would certainly prefer). However, if we can’t sign Splitter, then we will be faced with the very real prospect of trading RJ AND TP. Let’s face it, RJ is worth some decent bench players and a young prospect or two, but there aren’t too many good bigs on the market and RJ certainly isn’t worth one of them.
May 12th, 2010 at 7:14 pm
“I will never understand the amount of criticism Parker receives from some of the San Antonio fans”
You obviously don’t live in South Texas and don’t know what you are talking about.
Anyone considering trading Parker is an idiot. You really think George Hill can pick up all the slack? Hill got burned by Nash left and right this last series. He’s not as good as Parker. no way at all! Blair and Hill are the future of our franchise. Trading Blair? Wha?? I.D.I.O.T.S!!
May 12th, 2010 at 7:55 pm
Come on guys it takes more than one year for a team to gel……give this roster a chance, bring in some prospects, gradually add a few new bloods. gotta give em more tha 1 year!!!!! DO NOT TRADE TONY, HE’S VERY IMPORTANT TO OUR SUCCESS….SPURS FAN JJ
May 12th, 2010 at 8:12 pm
get rid of bogans and mason, give temple and hairston valuable playing time…
May 12th, 2010 at 10:38 pm
“Let’s face it, RJ is worth some decent bench players and a young prospect or two……”
But that’s the problem, I don’t think he is worth it. Can you think of a team? What are the possibilities for getting two “decent bench players”? What might be some examples?
I only think we get someone worthwhile for RJ, in the OFF-SEASON, in one of those rare situations where a team wants to clear their long-term salaries. The GSW may be one of those teams. We should be negotiating with them right now. It’s quite possible negotiations for the sale of the team could be wrapped up in the next couple of months. It is conceivable that the prospective new owner (Oracle CEO, billionaire Larry Ellison has the inside track) may enter discussions with team management and current Warrior owner Chris Cohan about whether clearing any long-term contract obligations might be a part of the deal to purchase the team. The Warrior’s biggest contracts, in order, are Ellis, Biedrins, Magette, Turiaf, Curry, Brandon Wright, and Randolf. If long-term contract clearing were to be a negotiating hurdle, team management would give their views about whether they consider any of their current players (listed above) ones that it would be wise to keep & build their franchise around. If I had to guess, it would only be Curry. Thus, unloading at least some of the others could be on the table, with further discussions about whether it makes sense as a business proposition to build the team fresh through key FA acquisitions, and eventually of course, through the draft and/or trades.
As I noted in a previous comment, from the Spurs perspective, Maggette represents someone that is too close to the type of game RJ had coming to our team last year to want to turn around and take on Cory for 4 years at 9 mil. per. And like I said, I feel that Biedrins and Turiaf would be the best fit for the Spurs, and it would provide the Warriors with even more long-term cap relief than if we were to take Magette & Turiaf, as the players acquired in a deal for RJ’s expiring contract. Also, as a part of the deal, complete a sign & trade with the Warriors for either Azubuike or Morrow. Then sign Raja Bell with the MLE, and trade McDyess & Hairston (Mahinmi too?) to the Rockets for Shane Battier.
Players Gone:
Mason
Bogans
Mahinmi
Hairston
McDyess
Jefferson
Players Added:
Bell
Battier
Azubuike
Biedrins
Turiaf
New Team:
Parker, Temple
Ginobli, Hill, Bell
Battier, Azubuike, Gee
Biedrins, Turiaf
Duncan, Blair, Bonner
Main problems taken care of:
Shot-blockers: Biedrins, Turiaf
Perimeter “D”: Battier, Bell
Shooters: Battier, Bell, Azubuike
Now that team could compete for a title!
Obviously, this is a pie in the sky scenario that is predicated on the unlikely scenario that the Warriors are ready to clean house, and that they’re more than happy to do it with us, similar to how Memphis was happy to give LA a title in the Gasol case.
Now, if we want to get back to the more pragmatic & realistic endeavor of retooling this team, we can start by revisiting carefully the Manu to OKC trade that I repeated earlier on this thread.
May 13th, 2010 at 3:18 am
Funny that you mentioned Mayo, because he’s a player that I believe has slipped through the cracks and is under the radar.
Would a team be willing to trade within their own division? Debatable. I believe Mayo is the on the block and I wonder if there isn’t something to be done there - perhaps a three way thing as you suggested.
Being a contract year and all, I actually believe TP when he says he’s going to play next year “like a revenge”. He’s motivated for a new deal and despite everything, he can be the x-factor.
I wouldn’t trade him unless it was a no-brainer deal. We need Korver (or some similar type shooter) and Splitter to arrive.
May 13th, 2010 at 7:40 am
Here’s another way to think about this offseason -
What happens to the teams that lose their major FA’s? What happens to Cleveland if Lebron leaves? What incentive is there to keep a bloated payroll w/ no chance to win? If he does leave (if Boston closes them out, I think he does), you could see a firesale…..which begs the question - how about Anderson Varejao? (Full disclosure - I’m a big Varejao fan.)
He’s due $7M next year. His contract continues to rise $700k/year up to 2014/15 (last year is a team option). Not cheap, but also not hugely expensive in the short term.
If we’re looking for a defensive minded big, I can’t think of better fit. He’s already demonstrated how valuable a player he is in a Spurs-like scheme. And when I watch him, he always does the little things to help the team win. Whether it’s hedging the pick and roll, tipping out an offensive board, taking a charge, etc., he always active and he always plays hard. And for my money, I think he’s one of the best (if not the best) interior defenders in the league.
Now how do we acquire him? Based on their payroll, I’d think Cleveland would value an expiring deal like RJ’s at that point - they would have no choice but to start over, and that begins with clearing cap space. Cleveland would have to throw in parts to make the salaries match (West, Moon, Parker for example), but it could work. It also doesn’t hurt to have all those former Spurs in the Cleveland FO…..
This also doesn’t preclude the Spurs from signing Splitter. And if they feel like Splitter is no longer needed/wanted, they can use him as an asset in any trade. Not too much downside here in my opinion. Of course, it all depends on what happens in Cleveland…….
May 13th, 2010 at 8:46 am
How about this made up trade? It’s not likely but it is based on some logic at least…
Nets get 1st pick in draft and take John Wall. At that point Devin Harris is available.
Harris has 3 years at 8-9 million a year left, and his stock is very low right now. The main competetion for Harris would be the Knicks and Pacers. I could see the Russian owner not wanting to deal with the Knicks in case it works in their favor. So it would probably be between the Pacers and Spurs in my made up scenerio.
Would the Pacers be willing to give up their lottery pick? Like the Spurs they don’t much in the way of good young talents. I’ll propsoe that the Spurs #20 pick and Jefferson, who still is an effective player, with his expiring deal trumps the Pacers offer.
So Jefferson and 2010 1st round pick for Harris
The next part of this trade is would be based on the Hawks losing Joe Johnson and either Josh Smith or the Hawks managment tiring of eachother (somewhat likely it’s both!). So the Hawks are now desperate for some scoring and have soured on Josh Smiths attitude.
Spurs trade Parker and McDyess for Josh Smith and Mike Bibby.
None of this is very likely but I could see it at least being discussed…
Spurs would be taking chanes with Smith’s attitude and especially with Harris’ health but it would inject some youth and athletisism and to the Spurs.
Rotation after my made up trade
PG-Harris
SG-Ginobili
SF-Boogans
PF-Smith
C-Duncan
Bench
Bigs- Splitter, Booner, Blair
Wings-Harriston, Hill, Veteran Exception FA
PG- Hill, Bibby
This would be based on brining Splitter in, signing a shooter with the Vet Exception (or maybe resigning Mason), and having Boognas shot 1,000 corner 3′s a day in the off season.
This team is certainly better defensivley, but spacing could be a problem. This team would have 4 players who could create their own shots which is what the Spurs hoped for this year when they added Jefferson.
What ya’ll think?
May 13th, 2010 at 9:40 am
Jim,
Manu Ginobili was the second most productive guard in the league according to PER and WP48. Harden was below average in PER, don’t know his WP48. You don’t get better in the short term by trading away a top guard for someone who MAY (I agree with you that he will likely be good, but not soon enough for us) produce at a high level in a couple years. Especially a veteran guard with a great contract when compared to the other top veteran producers at SG (Wade, Johnson, Kobe, Allen, Richardson all get more now than Manu gets next year, most a lot more). Doesn’t work, doesn’t help. I don’t see us having a chance without Manu producing at a high level. Oklahoma doesn’t have the pieces to replace him.
May 13th, 2010 at 9:56 am
This may be unpopular, but Blair seems like a tradeable asset. If we package him with a bigger contract, like RJ, maybe we could get something. I love Grizzly Blair, but as far as next year goes I’m not sure how much he helps. Without a reliable jumper he can’t get many minutes along side TD. Also, his D seemed to improve but he still has a ways to go as an undersized defender. Any team looking to dump salary and gain youth may be interested. Seems kind of like trading away our future to gain a shot at a championship right now, but it’s something to think about it.
May 13th, 2010 at 11:09 am
@Tyler:
I love the Varejao suggestion. I hadn’t thought about Cleveland as a possible fire-sale franchise, but you’re absolutely right. If they lose LBJ, everyone on that roster would be available. Great call.
May 13th, 2010 at 11:15 am
bduran
May 13th, 2010 at 9:40 am
“Manu Ginobili was the second most productive guard in the league according to PER and WP48. Harden was below average in PER, don’t know his WP48. You don’t get better in the short term by trading away a top guard for someone who MAY (I agree with you that he will likely be good, but not soon enough for us) produce at a high level in a couple years.”
Okay, I get it, you care much more about having the off-chance just getting to the WCF next year, at best, instead of only making it to the first round again (maybe not, maybe further). And for this privilege (I’m being facetious, because I want a real chance at the TITLE in the next few years), you want to sacrifice our ability to “rebuild on the run” so that we may avoid the prospects of REALLY “down” years when Manu & TD are done in the next few years. You remind me of CEO’s that only care about their net profit for the next quarter, instead of building the company in a way that sustains their success over the long-term.
Also, Harden will be much better than you think, VERY soon, if given the opportunity. And on the contracts: Richardson - not a lot more; Allen - on the last year of his contract - will probably get similar to Manu money when he re-signs; I love Manu, but you really can’t compare him to Wade & Kobe; and Johnson, a couple mil. more per, plus he’s FOUR years younger, and still in his prime. No, Manu is fairly compensated. He’s not a steal at his new contract, which I believe averages out to a bit over 13 mil. per year.
By the way, in Manu’s rookie year with the Spurs, at age 25, he had a PER of 14.7, and TS% of .556. Harden, at age 20, has a PER of 14.0, and a TS% of .551. Pretty comparable, and Harden has a FIVE year head start. In Manu’s 2nd year, his PER jumped to 18.5. We could very well see a similar jump in Harden’s PER next year, if given the same type of opportunity that Manu had with the Spurs in 2003.
“Oklahoma doesn’t have the pieces to replace him (Manu).”
No, I know, Manu is god to you.
bduran
May 13th, 2010 at 9:56 am
“This may be unpopular, but Blair seems like a tradeable asset. If we package him with a bigger contract, like RJ, maybe we could get something. I love Grizzly Blair, but as far as next year goes I’m not sure how much he helps. ”
No, trading Manu is “unpopular”. But who cares about “unpopular”? I care about assembling a winning franchise that is sustainable over the long-term. You apparently want to chase “fools gold” for the next two years, praying for a title that will never come by maintaining the status quo. In regard to Blair, again, think of the CEO analogy above. You want to keep old guys that are stars for the next two years, and trade away talented young players that will become stars for a DECADE. I hate to tell you, but Blair has simply never had the coaching or opportunity to develop an NBA level mid-range jumper. Hell, he completely dominated INSIDE in college, what would be the incentive? That said, you can tell that Blair has the shooting touch. It will just take the coaching staff to give him a lot of focus, and with Blair’s determined & positive attitude, A LOT of practice taking thousands of mid-range jumpers over the off-season, for a couple of years to really get it down, maybe three years to develop a fade away from 15-18 feet. In my view, he has Boozer-type potential in the next few years written all over him. I would NEVER trade him.
May 13th, 2010 at 11:43 am
Since we’re talking about teams that might hold fire-sales because the franchise is being sold, here’s an excerpt from a recent piece by Henry Abbott (http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/15356/the-business-of-owning-an-nba-team-in-2010):
“. . . can we re-cap the list of NBA teams that are known to be on the market?
There have been stories about the Wizards, the Pistons, the Warriors, the Hornets, the Atlanta teams, over the years there have been stories about the Grizzlies being for sale . . .”
I would add to that list the possibility of Indiana, based on the following article: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5178688
The Pacers have a 2011 cap plan in place and might be willing to wait out the year rather than dump talent, but then again, they might jump at the chance to save some cash this year, too.
Depending on how things play out this summer, there is an even more remote chance that Philadelphia, Denver, and Cleveland (noted by Tyler) might dump salary, too.
From these teams, I would think there is an outside chance that all of the following players might be available in various levels of salary dumps that might address some of our needs (I’m not saying I want all of these guys, I’m just saying they might be available.) This list is not comprehensive — I’m editing based on who I personally like and who I think might actually be made available, so there is a good deal of subjectivity here.
Ben Gordon
Tay Prince
Jeff Foster
Troy Murphy
Corey Maggette
Andris Biedrins
Ronny Turiaf
Brandan Wright
Marvin Williams
Josh Childress
Sam Dalembert
Aderson Varejao
Antawn Jamison
Anthony Parker
Chauncey Billups
Chris Anderson
JR Smith
May 13th, 2010 at 11:52 am
Tyler
May 13th, 2010 at 7:40 am
In the realm of possibility? Perhaps. A realistic chance? Not really. I know LeBron James is big, but what are the chances that a team favored to win the title, suddenly and deliberately implodes? Not very high, in my estimation. Although, something similar did happen when Jordan left the Bulls in 1998. Thus, you never know. I can’t remember if management, after Jordan’s decision to leave, precipitated the exodus of others, or if some of the players were FA’s, or simply retired. Of course, as you said, the idea depends on what LeBron & the Cavs do this off-season. And we really can’t put the Cavs in their coffin quite yet.
May 13th, 2010 at 12:19 pm
so there is an article at kens 5 that makes a strong xase for trading parker.
it sides the possibility that we may not be able to sign him next season considering he may ask for a max deal. also, the rise of george hill as a starter means we would not lose the pg position completely. if richard jefferson is included in a trade deal involving parker, this leaves us with oodles of cap room that can be used towards some young, future spurs.
trading tony is starting to sound dreadfully enticing
May 13th, 2010 at 12:30 pm
“…..article at kens 5…..”
Sorry, I have no idea what you’re talking about.
May 13th, 2010 at 1:16 pm
@Jim -
I’m not saying that any particular scenario is likely. I’m just saying that with the sheer number of major FA’s in play this offseason, it’s likely that a few teams will lose major pieces for nothing, forcing them to blow up what they had previously constructed. And where there are motivated sellers, there are going to be opportunities. My hope is that the Spurs can take advantage.
May 13th, 2010 at 1:22 pm
Parker not playing for France.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AgUDBIgAVWPGe2hvP0c.Z528vLYF?slug=ap-france-parker
May 13th, 2010 at 1:35 pm
Tyler
May 13th, 2010 at 1:16 pm
Yeah, there could be some good opportunities. But in my view, they are few and far between, and clearly L…O…N…G shots. I’m not opposed to being opportunistic, and if we can get lucky, great. But in the meantime, it’s more pragmatic to talk about more sensible options, like for example, retooling with some quality youth by making tempting offers to the youth-saturated OKC Thunder.
May 13th, 2010 at 2:43 pm
Manu is not comparable to Kobe, he produced more this year at less than half the price.
You knock me for my love of Manu, but all the stats back me up.
Anyway, my only point is that he is a good value. This year he was a fantastic value, he’ll be less so going forward as his pay increases and productivity declines. Yeah Joe Johnson would be a good trade for us because of his relative youth, but it’s not going to happen (I know you know that). Our only options are as you suggest, trading for a young promising player who has yet to produce at their full potential (else they wouldn’t be tradeable).
My post above was in the vein of what gives us the best shot at a title next year and not worrying about our future. Honestly, I’m fine not taking that route. I’m not saying we should trade Blair, just that he probably wont’ be much help to our title hopes next year and if that is the number one priority he is a good asset. I have seen enough of Blair to think that if he stays healthy he will be fantastic. Which is why I think he’s a great asset and anyone who’s only priority is a championship should consider trading him.
I prefer some sort of middle ground when it comes to the next few years, I want to keep a good team with a shot, but not trade everything. So I agree keep Blair … but don’t trade for Harden. Like I said before I think he will be good, although I doubt he will ever produce at Ginobili’s level (few do). Clearly over the next several years Harden will do more for us than Manu simply because he will still be in the league and healthy. However, the drop off in production over the next two years just doesn’t seem worth it to me. This trade would make us worse in the short run and I don’t like that. If it didn’t, it would be because Harden made a historic jump in play and i’m not going to count on that.
We don’t have to trade for away our future for a title, but i also don’t want to trade away any shot at it for our future.
May 13th, 2010 at 5:50 pm
I agree that Tony Parker should be traded since they already opt to keep Ginobili. I can see that Parker and Ginobili is not compatible inside the court. They shouldn’t play together. Parker doesn’t want to pass much especially to Ginobili. So I really wanted Parker to be traded. I would like to see a not selfish PG. I’m really hoping.
May 13th, 2010 at 7:28 pm
Looks like those old Celtics just whipped the Cavs!
May 13th, 2010 at 7:34 pm
“We needed to try to get younger, more athletic. And we did, but probably not enough,” Popovich said. “We need to work more in that direction.”
What a dumb ass…
Blow it up. Package Tony and Jefferson. Tony will want maxed out in 2 years. If we max him we will not be sniffing the POs.
Get rid of Duncan. Hes basically Shaq of the West. His playing on his name now.
Get rid of Pop….
May 13th, 2010 at 8:42 pm
bduran
May 13th, 2010 at 2:43 pm
“Manu is not comparable to Kobe, he produced more this year at less than half the price.
You knock me for my love of Manu, but all the stats back me up.”
ALL you look at in assessing a player, whether it’s Harden, Kobe, or whoever, is per minute production. You give NO value to DURABILITY or AGE in determining a player’s true value to a franchise. For example, Kobe is two years younger than Manu, but is EIGHTH ALL-TIME in NBA history in points scored with almost 26,000 points. Manu has scored a little over 8,000. I could go on and on with a ton of relevant data, but the point is, Kobe is clearly a level above Manu (unless you just want to look at PER, which is silly). ANY professional analyst would concur with that basic assessment. Now, on the subject of pay, I never said that Kobe wasn’t overpaid, but he is in LA, so what do you expect.
“Yeah Joe Johnson would be a good trade for us because of his relative youth, but it’s not going to happen (I know you know that).”
I never said I wanted Joe Johnson, or that acquiring him was feasible. I only mentioned him in the context of his salary in relation to his value as a player.
“My post above was in the vein of what gives us the best shot at a title next year and not worrying about our future.”
I don’t mean to burst your bubble, but we WILL NOT WIN THE TITLE NEXT YEAR, not without trading Manu or Tony, and even then it is very unlikely to happen next year. Manu & TP are by far our most valuable trade pieces, and we simply have way too many holes to fill (solid tall defender in the paint, three point shooting, perimeter “D”).
“I have seen enough of Blair to think that if he stays healthy he will be fantastic. Which is why I think he’s a great asset and anyone who’s only priority is a championship should consider trading him.”
You do see how illogical this is, don’t you? Nobody knows what a true diamond in the rough Blair is more than the Spurs. Thus, you’ll never get near the value back for him in a trade. Granted, teams see his basic value and potential, but there’s no way they’re in position to value him with the Boozer-type potential that the Spurs are in a position to see. Getting to Boozer-type performance has as much to do with attitude & determination to “make” yourself into a great player. Other teams are simply not in a position to fully assess this intangible that Blair possesses. Thus, by trading him you would end up letting a crucial piece to future championships go out the door forever for a mediocre piece in return that will not be enough to help us win in the next couple of years anyway. Further, you still don’t seem to understand that we are not going to win a title off our aging big three, and an overall mediocre supporting cast. And with our cap situation, we have no way of plugging our holes with merely the MLE, and relief from a couple of small contracts expiring. As I’ve attempted to point out on numerous occasions, it would be supremely fortunate for us to be able to move RJ’s expiring contract BEFORE next February’s trade deadline, AND get anything back that carries sufficient value. VERY unlikely.
“…….but don’t trade for Harden. Like I said before I think he will be good, although I doubt he will ever produce at Ginobili’s level (few do).”
Why do you keep trying to make this into a one on one trade? The trade was not Manu for Harden. Don’t you think getting the starting center on a 50 win team, the SEVEN FOOT, TWENTY-SIX year old Krstic is worth anything? You really don’t see how he could make us better NOW, lined up next to Duncan? Plus, we’re getting another young bench player in the deal, or a top 30 draft pick. You’re completely dismissing future considerations on the belief that our team post trade would be a little worse than it would be without the trade. And to be honest, it might not be, certainly by year two of the deal. You simply cannot effectively run a franchise with such short-sightedness.
May 13th, 2010 at 8:59 pm
The 2010 Cavs are apparently one of the biggest “choke” teams in NBA history. Has there ever been a player as talented as LBJ, and a team that wins 66 games, look more pathetic, particularly in the closing two games in a round two series loss?
You throw up bricks at a 38% clip, 29% from three, play lackluster & inconsistent “D”, and fumble your way to 22 turnovers in an elimination game six? That’s the tell-tale sign of nerves, and/or an utter lack of mental toughness & focus.
What an embarrassment for the snake-bit fans of Cleveland!
May 13th, 2010 at 9:07 pm
@TradeTP -
“Get rid of Duncan. Hes basically Shaq of the West. His playing on his name now.”
What was he? 3rd team All-NBA and 2nd team All-Defense? Sounds like a pretty productive player to me…..
I’ve read a good but of nonsense on here over the last year, but that truly is one of the most ignorant, nonsensical statements I’ve ever come across. Just…..wow.
May 13th, 2010 at 9:18 pm
@ Jim Henderson,
I disagree with the trade Ginobili for the Thunder’s 5th, 8th, 11th best players. I don’t believe Harden will grow to be the player you forsee. Can Harden be a Ray Allen or Reggie Miller? I doubt it. If you trade Ginobili, you have to insist on 1 of the top 4 players. Either Ibaka or Green would have to be included or NO deal.
Ginobili is a closer in the NBA and player of the month in March. A necessary component to win a championship.
Trading Parker would be a better option.
May 13th, 2010 at 9:36 pm
On another topic, I believe Lebron will join the Nets, along with coach Phil Jackson.
Center-Lopez check, PG-John Wall(depending on draft pick) check, athletic, young role players - Harris, Lee, Yi, Williams(a triple double threat), cap space for another free agent fit like Korver, Miller, etc.
Billionaire owner, Jay-Z, Sabathia, etc, big market, move to new arena in Brooklyn.
Lebron best option is to join the Nets, in my opinion.
May 13th, 2010 at 11:10 pm
@Jim Henderson
I haven’t thought about it like that but yeah, CAVS, what a bust.
Anyway, I really don’t like the trade you keep bringing up with MANU and OKC.
It would be great for OKC but not for the SPURS.
Unless you are throwing in the towel and are looking to compete in about 5 years. That’s if HARDEN even works out. He is still way too young to make the SPURS contenders.
I know he was once referred to as a “black MANU” but he’s not even close to being like MANU.
Do you honestly think the SPURS would be in the hunt next year if they make such a trade? Or are you thinking long term?
May 14th, 2010 at 12:39 am
“I disagree with the trade Ginobili for the Thunder’s 5th, 8th, 11th best players.”
I have NO idea how you are ranking the OKC players, but I’d like for you to provide some evidence if you plan to contest the following ranking of the top ten Thunder players:
Durant
Westbrook
Green
Krstic
Ibaka (he will pass Krstic, but not yet)
Harden
Sefolosha
Collison
Maynor
White
Thus, I was suggesting the 4th, 6th, & 10th (or a top 30 draft pick) ranked OKC players, NOT the 5th, 8th, & 11th. We’re getting a starter, a top reserve, and another young “big” with some potential (or the 1st round pick) from a team that took the defending champion Lakers to 6 games in the 1st round of the playoffs. What do you want for an aging, injury-prone 33 year old with, if we’re lucky, three good years left? Dwayne Wade?! You’re not going to get Ibaka or Green for ANY 33 year old player. They wouldn’t take Duncan for Ibaka & Green! And rightly so.
In addition, and as I pointed out to bduran earlier on this thread, for SO MANY of you on this blog, you give NO value to DURABILITY or AGE in determining a player’s true value to a franchise (Ginobli is 33, the OKC players are all between 20-26 years of age). This type of short-sighted thinking consigns franchises to long stretches of mediocrity, or perhaps worse.
“Can Harden be a Ray Allen or Reggie Miller? I doubt it.”
In Allen & Miller, you’re talking about two of the greatest shooters at the two-guard spot in the history of the game. Does Harden really have to become that good to make you satisfied? If so, you have a rude awakening in front of you as a Spur fan. You’re expectations are simply unrealistic, and you’re setting yourself up for disappointment.
P.S. If I was LeBron, I would stay in Cleveland, and grow up.
May 14th, 2010 at 1:12 am
junierizzle
May 13th, 2010 at 11:10 pm
“Do you honestly think the SPURS would be in the hunt next year if they make such a trade? Or are you thinking long term?”
I’m thinking of next year, and long-term, just like any GM must do successfully, or he might not have a job for very long. R.C.’s done a great job for a long time, but in my view he’s making a big mistake if he in his own mind is completely committed to keeping both Manu & TP at this critical juncture.
In terms of next year, I have every confidence that if Harden was given the opportunity to log 25+ minutes per game in the guard rotation with TP & Hill, that his scoring avg. would be in the 13 to 14 point per game area (has the potential to score 18-20 per game in the next few years), just two to three fewer ppg. than Manu put up last season. The difference will be easily made up by Parker, Hill, Blair, or a number of other players. Harden does not have Manu’s play-making or defensive capabilities as yet (he may never be as good of a play-maker as Manu), but he could become an excellent scorer & solid defender. A healthy TP (no Worlds this year!) and an improving Hill will need to make up for the loss of Manu’s play-making. A young, 7 foot Krstic will help next to Duncan, and Krstic has a nice mid-range jumper. He’s also starting to become more fully recovered from severe knee injuries he suffered from a few years back, when he was averaging 16 ppg. & 7 rpg. And I expect pretty noticeable improvement in Blair’s game next season, as well. So depending on what we do with the MLE, draft, etc., “with the proposed trade” I would expect that we would still be a lower-tier seed for the playoffs again next year, and of course, better the following year. We might do better with Manu, without the trade, but not by that much, and the simple fact is, Manu’s running out of time, the OKC guys aren’t.
May 14th, 2010 at 4:34 am
one thing i would love to see is d wade in da silver and black…..that would b da …. come on spurs….
May 14th, 2010 at 5:27 am
“Get rid of Duncan. Hes basically Shaq of the West. His playing on his name now. ”
I can’t believe this is coming from a Spurs fan. No wait, you’re not a Spurs fan are you TradeTP? I hope not.
May 14th, 2010 at 5:57 am
Jim
“ALL you look at in assessing a player, whether it’s Harden, Kobe, or whoever, is per minute production. You give NO value to DURABILITY or AGE in determining a player’s true value to a franchise.”
According to wins produced Manu produced more this year than Kobe. More than any two guard other than Wade. Wade and Manu produced at a similar per minute level, but Wade played a lot more making him significantly better. The only other level Kobe was on this year was with regards to his paycheck.
You cite points scored and “I could go on and on with a ton of relevant data”. Well you only mentioned points, and total points is a terrible way to evaluate a player. Unfortunatley, this is what you and your “professional analyst” look at.
By the way, I agree with your point about durability. Usually this allows Kobe to produce more, but this year he was inferior and at his age there’s no guarantee he returns to form.
“You do see how illogical this is, don’t you? Nobody knows what a true diamond in the rough Blair is more than the Spurs.”
Please read what I wrote, I said I’d keep him. Just that if we wanted to go all in this year he’d likely have more value to you in trade than in help … THIS YEAR. But like I said I’d keep him. I enjoy speculation though.
“Further, you still don’t seem to understand that we are not going to win a title off our aging big three, and an overall mediocre supporting cast.”
What I’m saying is that trading Manu, based onwhat he did this year, will likely hurt us next year. I’d be more likely to agree with a TP trade.
BTW I relooked at your OKC trade. I never though much of Kristic at the stats back me up (just starting on a 50 win team doesn’t mean your good, remember RJ?) but D.J. White is intriguing. He was good in college has shown something in limited minutes with the Thunder. He could develop into something. Still, all the pieces of your proposed trade will likely not do much for us next year. I’d take the draft pick instead of Kristic because we will not win with this trade (see I can speak in absolutes as well) and if we’re going to do it it should be only to plan for the future.
May 14th, 2010 at 6:42 am
Improving the team to compete for a title and do it within the next 2 years (Duncan’s window) IS the main goal. If trading Parker to get the elements needed to do that in the areas the team needs, along with the improvement of Hill, gives this team a better shot at winning without keeping Parker…I’d be all for it. Splitter IS NOT proven in the nba. I’d trade Parker for Bosh straight up and use Tiago as a tool to get a proven young PG to play as b/u to Hill.
And let’s pray that Jefferson actually earns his salary next season.
May 14th, 2010 at 9:19 am
@ jim
kens 5 is a local new station in san antonio. this article is taken from their online sports section.
http://www.kens5.com/sports/basketball/Spurs-in-Preview-Why-the-Spurs-need-to-trade-Tony-Parker-this-summer-93579699.html
May 14th, 2010 at 9:54 am
http://www.kens5.com/sports/Spurs-in-Preview-With-the-draft-an-opportunity-to-build-for-the-future-93674379.html
May 14th, 2010 at 1:46 pm
Chicago trade for TP? Why in the world would Chicago do that?
The Spurs simply need to draft the best available player on the board. Whether it’s a PG, SG or whatever, you can sort the rest out later. I don’t like the idea of drafting for need - many times you end up reaching just to fill out a certain position.
May 14th, 2010 at 1:59 pm
bduran
May 14th, 2010 at 5:57 am
For one, Bryant also has a higher career average in PER & WS than Manu. Plus, you seem to always want to use production stats in relation to minutes played. Now, don’t get me wrong, I think these are useful stats, but to obsess on them is not the way to determine a players overall, “true” value to a franchise. Otherwise, a team could have a productive player, but if he’s unable to keep himself on the court for as many minutes as possible, year in and year out, his value would need to be adjusted accordingly. For example, Kobe has averaged 9 more minutes per game than Manu over their respective careers. In addition, Kobe is second in NBA history in game-winning shots at the buzzer. Manu is nowhere even close on this list. Kobe has also averaged more assists, more rebounds, and more blocks per game, plus TEN more points per game. Look, I’m not a “big” Kobe fan. But nobody in their right mind is going to say that, over their careers, Manu has been MORE valuable than Kobe to their respective franchises. This not meant to suggest that Manu has not been VERY valuable to the Spurs since he first wore the silver & black eight years ago. However, it is to say that he does not compare to Kobe in this regard. Kobe may very well be overpaid compared to Manu, but not less valuable in the final analysis.
“By the way, I agree with your point about durability. Usually this allows Kobe to produce more, but this year he was inferior and at his age there’s no guarantee he returns to form.”
Thanks for the glancing reference to DURABILITY being a factor in determining player value. But how about AGE. I see NO acknowledgment of the very real impact that AGE has on a player’s value to a franchise. And as far as Bryant being inferior this year: How do you call 27 ppg., 5.3 rpg., 4.7 apg., & 1.5 spg. having an “inferior” year? Using other stats, 2010 might not be Kobe’s best year, but inferior? You got me scratching my head on that one.
“……I never though much of Kristic at the stats back me up (just starting on a 50 win team doesn’t mean your good……”
Most starters on most 50 win teams are solid players. So, how do you define “good”? Just remember, we’re not going to get a stable of top quality young “studs” for aging veteran players. Not gonna happen. I hope you understand this basic fact. And the fact is, Krstic is a competent center, he’s just 26 years old, he’s 7 feet tall (yes, height ALONE has SOME value), he averaged 8.4 pts. & 5 rebounds in 22 mpg. He’s very comparable to McDyess (in terms of production this past year), only YOUNGER and TALLER. Plus he looks to be just starting to come back into form after his knee injuries from a few years back when he was averaging 16 ppg. & 7 rpg.
“I’d take the draft pick instead of Kristic because we will not win with this trade (see I can speak in absolutes as well) and if we’re going to do it it should be only to plan for the future.”
The idea is to NOT drop everything right now and ONLY think about three years down the line. This proposed deal creates that balance. Harden & Krstic can make substantial contributions to our team NOW. White is now, or later, we can’t be sure at this point. If we took a draft pick instead of White, it would most likely be later, hopefully.
May 14th, 2010 at 3:35 pm
I think durability is more of passing importance, it’s extremely important. That’s why I said
“Wade and Manu produced at a similar per minute level, but Wade played a lot more making him SIGNIFICANTLY better. ”
According to Wins Produced Manu produced more than Kobe this year. His per minute production was so much better that despite playing fewer minutes he totaled more wins. Manu for the last five years has had a higher wp48 then Kobe, but this year Kobe slid and the gap was larger. His FG%, 3pt%, and FT% all took a hit and so while he still scored points, he did so much less efficiently than normal.
Kobe has certainly produced more career wins though, no doubt about that. However, Manu was the superior player this year.
Speaking of durability, in the 3 seasons prior to this one Krstic played in 26,45,46 games. Of course this may have been a good thing because according to Wages of Wins in only one of these years (the first one in which he played 26) did he have non NEGATIVE production, and even then his .032 WP48 was well below the average of .100. This may also be way he only 23 minutes a game as a starter this year.
This is why I like production stats like wp48. As fans most of us don’t get to watch lots of minutes from every player. So how do we evaluate them? We glance at box scores. However, it is easy to assess a player incorrectly doing so. So wp48 assigns a rating to player based on box scores statistics correlation with winning. Takes a lot of the guess work out.
So the OKC trade amounts to a draft pick or project player, a player who hurts our team, and a young player who will most likely be good (maybe very good) eventually but plays the same position as the star we’re trading. So I only do this trade for the future, because I firmly believe it hurts us a lot next year.
May 14th, 2010 at 3:48 pm
IF we can bring Splitter over, I don’t think we need to trade Tony or Manu. We’d only need to trade RJ for pieces that fit our needs.
Of course we’ll be able to move RJ. Salary dumps happen every single year, and a 14mil expiring contract is worth a lot.
We don’t need to swing for the fences, we don’t need well known players. The Suns have two big names, Nash and Amare, and basically a bunch of role players, and they swept us easily. The Cavs on the other hand have Lebron, brought in big name Shaq, swung a big trade for Jamison, and still got their asses kicked by the “old” Celtics. Same goes for the Mavs. Kidd, Butler, Marion, Dirk, Terry. That right there sounds like a great start for a scary team, but they didn’t do much did they?
What we do need is players who can perform at a NBA level and compliment our big 3.
As a fan, I’d rather try and win another title before TD retires, then have his last few years in the NBA be on a rebuilding team. If this means we eventually have to go through a couple years of rebuilding, being a borderline playoff team, I can live with that.
May 14th, 2010 at 4:34 pm
Tyler and Ian= You guys and your ignorance is similar to why we wont win another ring in years. Third team all NBA…. jesus Thats like saying Yao is/was the best NBA player because the fans in China voted him to start in the all stars.
Look at Rondo. Obviously one of the best players in the league and he didnt get named to a team.
The point is I AM A SPURS FAN. Not some asshole wearing a TD or TP or MANU jersey. If Tim were worth 1/2 as much as we are giving him and losing by not giving younger players minutes or contracts then he would be winning rings, hitting FTs, dominating the block.
Henderson said it correctly. THE BIG THREE is not winning us a ring. MCDOOSH and his 6ppg (all 18 footers) wont win us a ring.
I am loyal to the TEAM and the ORGANIZATION. Not the current coach or players. I dont care how many awards anyone has won ESPECIALLY if we arent winning the one that matters the most. RING.
It sucked to watch Bowen leave. But he couldnt do his job. Same with Tim. And probably the same giving Manu 3 years.
You cant just throw out the same team and expect different results. The game changes. The players change. You have to be able to adapt. Which is something our coaching staff, and our players have failed to do when it matters.
Blow it up. Get some excitement back.
May 14th, 2010 at 6:05 pm
@TradeTP - There’s nothing wrong with wanting the team to win it all as a fan, but to ditch a player that brought 4 championships and has been loyal to the franchise for all his career? That’s just not the right way to run a team and if you call yourself a fan, you should know it. Spurs rewarded TD with a big contract not for his worth as a player, but to show that the franchise will respect its players that had been loyal to them. I mean, who would want to play for a team that ditches a franchiser just because he’s old and not as good as he used to be? THAT’s how you run the organisation man. Don’t be so ignorant.
May 14th, 2010 at 6:48 pm
“I mean, who would want to play for a team that ditches a franchiser just because he’s old and not as good as he used to be?”
Yeah we should keep him for that reason and because according to Wages of Wins he was the third highest in WP48 and total wins produced among 4s and 5s. Of course, some of that is due to his absolutely stellar first half, but he produced at a high level through the whole season with the possible exception of March. Here’s another example of a guy who we won’t be able to get good trade value for.
May 14th, 2010 at 7:13 pm
@TradeTP -
me: 6′ 9″, 245lb. professional athlete who shoves some of the biggest men in the NBA out of the paint for 20 minutes/night
you: ???
May 14th, 2010 at 8:03 pm
The Spurs are really not that bad, I don’t think we have to trade any of the big three. We HAVE to get Splitter, and our 1st round pick HAS to be a scorer (Unless there is a free-falling lottery pick). We also need to replace those other role-player guys (Bonner, Bogans, ect.) with some of these guys from this HUGE free agent class. Some of these players will not get the money they are predicting, and will just end up wanting to play for a contender… and we will get them.
May 14th, 2010 at 8:08 pm
One thing I’ve noticed over the years about great players such as Duncan, Shaq, Jordan, Kidd, etc etc is that when they were young and in their prime, they were so great at the game, that when they got into their 30s and declined, we thought they sucked because they aren’t what they used to be.
Jordan wasn’t the same with the Wizards as he was with the Bulls, but he was still a good player.
Shaq isn’t a horrible player now, he’s still average I’d say, but it’s a shock to see him like this because of how absolutely dominant he used to be.
Duncan used to be able to take over games on a whim, but he can’t anymore so certain people think he sucks now. He’s still an above average player, he’s just not elite anymore.
On top of all that, Tim Duncan was the savior of the Spurs. Without him we wouldn’t have four titles. Trading him would be ridiculous.
May 14th, 2010 at 8:53 pm
bduran
May 14th, 2010 at 3:35 pm
“Manu for the last five years has had a higher wp48 then Kobe…..”
There you again, using production per minute stats like they’re the God of player value. They’re not. As I said, if we’re just using “advanced” stats in determining a player’s overall value to a franchise, WS CAREER average is a more valid stat than WS48, “over the last five years”.
“this year Kobe ………. his FG%, 3pt%, and FT% all took a hit, and so while he still scored points, he did so much less efficiently than normal.”
I already pointed out in my previous post the following:
“How do you call 27 ppg., 5.3 rpg., 4.7 apg., & 1.5 spg. having an “inferior” year? Using other stats, 2010 might not be Kobe’s best year, but inferior?”
Thus, as you can see, I already conceded that if one were to fully assess Kobe’s stats this year, it would likely indicate that they were not as STERLING as some of his previous years. But the point was, these are not “inferior” numbers, which is what you had said originally. Now, if you “meant” to say that his numbers this year were “inferior” to the stats from some of his other amazing years, than yes, that would be accurate. Even so, I’m not sure what the point is, because his numbers this year were still very good, because you can’t say that 27, 5 & 5, 46% FG, and 6 game-winning shots, is indicative of having a meaningfully sub-par year, even for Kobe Bryant. And please, don’t quote me WS, WS48, etc. As I said, these stats are far from God. And by the way, his career PER is 23.5; this year it was 21.9. That’s not a significant drop-off.
“However, Manu was the superior player this year.”
I don’t agree, but I’m sure you’d use your “God” statistics in an effort to prove me wrong. Besides, who was it that just led their team to a 4 game sweep in round two of the playoffs, and whose team was recently swept in the second round?
“Speaking of durability, in the 3 seasons prior to this one Krstic played in 26,45,46 games.”
This all stemmed from suffering a serious knee injury, and its associated complications, as well as getting acclimated to a new team, in OKC. There’s no evidence that he’s injury prone or not durable just because he’s had ONE major injury in his fairly young career. Bad injuries happen sometimes, particularly early in a player’s career. Manu, on the other hand, has a long trend of relatively minor injuries that have stretched out over his entire career, and it has limited his minutes for most of his career, by necessity, and as a precaution.
“Speaking of durability, in the 3 seasons prior to this one Krstic played in 26,45,46 games. Of course this may have been a good thing because according to Wages of Wins in only one of these years (the first one in which he played 26) did he have non NEGATIVE production, and even then his .032 WP48 was well below the average of .100. This may also be way he only 23 minutes a game as a starter this year.”
Oh, here we go again with the lord of WS48. First of all, let me share with you a major reason why you “cannot rely so extensively” on WS48 to shed light on a player’s level of contribution. The WS48 does not measure a player’s contribution to “wins” in a vacuum. That is, a players WS48, on average, is always going to be higher if, number one, he happens to have the good fortune of being on a good all-around team, with other productive players, and number two, he is one of the two or three “go-to guys” on that team. For example, out of the top 6 single season player WS48′s in NBA history, all but one of the teams that this player played on won 60+ games that season, and the one that didn’t still made it to the NBA finals, and ALL of them made it to at least the Conference Finals. What this is saying is that if you happen to be on a team that assembled a very strong roster around you, and you’re one of the team’s “stars”, you’re MUCH more likely to have a high WS48 than if you happen to be a very talented player stuck on a team with a sub-par supporting cast.
With this in mind, in the case of Krstic, number one, he played on a mediocre, barely above .500 Net team that only made it to the Conference Finals once, in an unusually weak Eastern Conference during those years. Number two, I never stated that Krstic was a star player, but that he’s a solid complimentary player at the center position. Thus, it’s not surprising that his WS48′s are generally on the weak side. But also understand, he’s been trying desperately trying to recover from knee surgeries during the period in question. And as I said, he looks to be finally getting his legs back a bit this year, and actually had an okay WS48 of .116, compared to a .094 for McDyess, in about the same number of minutes. Of course, Krstic is taller, and has much more upside than Dice, being that he’s TEN years younger.
“This may also be way he only 23 minutes a game as a starter this year.”
No, Krstic got only 23 mpg. because Ibaka, even though he’s a 20 year old rookie, and much less polished, is in fact a “star” in the making. He’s simply got too much talent to keep him from stealing some of Krstic’s minutes.
“So the OKC trade amounts to a draft pick or project player, a player who hurts our team, and a young player who will most likely be good (maybe very good) eventually but plays the same position as the star we’re trading. So I only do this trade for the future, because I firmly believe it hurts us a lot next year.”
You’re underestimating the positive effects likely to be provided by all of these players, even in their first year with the Spurs, let alone year 2, 3, and beyond. And let me ask you this, are you going to be a Spur fan in three years? If so, what are you going to do when Tim & Manu “really” start to decline, and perhaps retire? You’re okay with a .500 team for several years, if not worse? What’s with the ultra short-term thinking here? What makes you think we can compete for a title next year, based on this years performance? We got SWEPT by the Phoenix Suns, no juggernaut, remember? You think we’re going to be able to get some fool to take over RJ’s contract for the WHOLE season? If it was your 15 million, why would you do that? Certainly, if it’s cap space you’re after, you do that deal at the trade deadline, not during the OFF-SEASON. Also, you think the modest < 6 mil. MLE is enough to fill our weaknesses? You think Splitter, who can make as much or more money in Europe, and whose rights we've owned for the past few years, is suddenly pining for a silver & black uni? If so, does HE fix all our needs? What specifically is your plan to help us get a title next year, or even in the next 6-8 years? Because I'll tell you one thing, if we don't trade Manu or TP for the right young, solid pieces, THIS OFF-SEASON, I don't see a chance we get a title in those 6-8 years. Just don't see it, and willing to bet we don't even get back to the finals during this period. And that's a LONG time, considering we have not been to the finals for three years already. That would be a whole decade without a finals trip. Is that what you want?
May 14th, 2010 at 9:27 pm
Although my position is not quite as radical, I do understand Trade Tp’s frustration, as exhibited in the following excerpt:
“You cant just throw out the same team and expect different results. The game changes. The players change. You have to be able to adapt. Which is something our coaching staff, and our players have failed to do when it matters.
Blow it up. Get some excitement back.”
I do think that as a franchise we are on the verge of failing to effectively adapt to changing circumstances. “On the verge” would be deleted if we do not come up with a major move in this off-season to address our primary needs, even if that means finding a solid deal for Manu or TP: (1) A competent, younger, taller guy on the front line; (2) A couple of “real” three point shooters; and (3) A proven perimeter defender.
I wouldn’t characterize what I want to do as “blow it up”, but I am an advocate for making an “outside the box” kind of thinking… trade.
However, just to weigh in on the idea of trading TD: I don’t think it’s reasonable to even consider, for two reasons: (1) because nobody would give us anything good for the privilege of assuming his 22 mil. dollar contract over the next 2 years. TD is still productive, but there’s no way a team values him at anything close to 22 million these days; and (2) TD is THE “key” player for our “system” to function properly as currently constructed. We would have to completely start over with out him, which is something I’m not in favor of. On the contrary, I’m in favor a “rebuild on the run” strategy, and the OKC deal that I suggested previously is just an opening salvo.
May 15th, 2010 at 12:25 am
Actually, if the current crisis with the Euro looks to be a long-term, lingering problem, the following excerpt from this article does suggest our odds of landing Splitter this summer could be increasing as we speak:
http://www.kens5.com/sports/basketball/Spurs-in-Preview-Why-Tiago-Splitter-is-like-a-chupacabra
“The Spurs might have a shot to sign Splitter – and if they don’t sign him this year, he’s locked into his Spanish contract until 2012 – because of what’s happening across the Atlantic.
If you’ve been near a TV recently, you’ve probably seen that the Greek economy is in turmoil. And as the Greek economy drops, the euro has also dropped.
What it means is that the dollar is as strong as it’s been in some time against Europe’s currency. So that massive contract Splitter’s got in Spain suddenly isn’t as large as it once was.
Suddenly, $6 million American might not be such a bad deal for Splitter.
I’m not advising that Spurs fans openly root for the collapse of the European economic system. But I am saying that it’s probably not hurting San Antonio’s chances of landing an inside presence in 2010.
The Final Verdict
The Spurs will make a very strong push for Splitter this summer. San Antonio needs another body inside, one who can take some of the scoring burden off Tim Duncan, and all indications from Spain are that Splitter can do it. He also gives the Spurs the liberty to draft a project at power forward and give him time to develop.
But Splitter’s decision comes down to two factors: money and ambition. If he’s happy living in Spain, it’s an easy decision, because he’s already making more money there. But if he wants to prove himself in the best basketball league in the world, the Spurs will have a real chance to land a player who probably should have been here three years ago.”
May 15th, 2010 at 5:47 am
Tony is going to absolutely play his best ball next season. He will be playing for a contract, whether it’s with the Spurs or another team is somewhat irrelevant. Let the Spurs benefit from Tony’s desire to get the last big contract of his career.
It was really obvious to me that Tony didn’t finish at the rim like we’ve all become used to seeing. Blame it on rust or injuries or both; My money is on a big season from TP coming up.
May 15th, 2010 at 5:54 am
All this theorizing about whether the Spurs brass needs to make some radical changes i.e. trade one of the Big 3 is kind of ridiculous.
Think back about a week ago to the team that kicked our butts. The stars (Nash, who is thirty friggin six and Amare, who will be a free agent very soon) got great contributions from a new cast of role players. Dudley, Frye, Dragic & Amundson won that series for Los Suns.
Bring in the right bench and the Spurs are championship caliber.
May 15th, 2010 at 6:45 am
@RJ, you should stop posting links to that idiot Dave Oshinsky. He can’t even add (trade Tony article) and he calls Splitter’s contract “massive” (it’s well below MLE). He seems ignorant of the non-money issues (e.g. his sister) and the fact that the Spurs never expected to get him for rookie scale.
May 15th, 2010 at 8:41 am
Jim,
I meant inferior only when compared to his previous years or Manu this year, Kobe’s never had a bad season.
“And let me ask you this, are you going to be a Spur fan in three years? If so, what are you going to do when Tim & Manu “really” start to decline, and perhaps retire? You’re okay with a .500 team for several years, if not worse? What’s with the ultra short-term thinking here? ”
My contention is your suggested trade could help us for the future, but hurt us in the next couple of years. I honestly don’t have a problem with people saying the prefer to prioritize winning now, rebuilding, or gambling at doing both. I think your suggestions in the middle category.
Look, you may not like WP48, but your reason why is not really accurate. It would make sense in a sport with only 5 people on the floor at a time that the all time best tended to play on good teams. Individuals have a HUGE effect on outcomes in basketball. Box score statistics tend to be very consistent from year to year and team to team for a given player. So it would suggest that in fact they depend on the PLAYER and not the TEAM.
I would ask you to reread my comments on per minute production. I did say this is the first year Manu outproduced Kobe despite higher per minute production. Durability has value, which is why I said Wade is SIGNIFICANTlY better than Manu despite similar per minute production. I agree that ultimately total production is better than per minute production. Per minute production is a great way to evaluate who should get more minutes, and obviously Manu is maxed out. Still, the duded produces at an elite level for us despite playing fewer minutes than many other top players.
Honestly, even if you think there are flaws in using box scores to evaluate players, I don’t see how you can think that trading for a player who’s missed that many games over a 3 year period and who’s production is that poor, even years he played the whole season, is a good idea. His ONE major injury hurt him for 3 YEARS. This is serious. He has as many injured years as healthy years. We will never agree on this.
May 15th, 2010 at 10:24 am
Jim Henderson
“May 15th, 2010 at 12:25 am Actually, if the current crisis with the Euro looks to be a long-term, lingering problem, the following excerpt from this article does suggest our odds of landing Splitter this summer could be increasing as we speak”
You’re absolutely right about this. Not to turn this into an economic chatroom, but the president of the European Central Bank came out and said this is the worst Euro economy since WW2 or maybe even WW1. I don’t want to wish ill on our European brethren, but this doesn’t bode well for ANY Euro sports franchise. Especially for one looking to keep a star player.
Another side note: the Euro just hit a new 4 year low against the dollar and who knows how far it can sink in the next few months. Many people, including myself, believe there is a possibilty that the EU will unravel over the next few years. If that happens, the Euro will crash as well leaving the dollar as a much better method of payment. (assuming our economy doesn’t crash faster than the EU.)
Who knows how this all plays out, but Splitter is THE key to our offseason.
May 15th, 2010 at 12:21 pm
ChrisG
May 15th, 2010 at 5:54 am
“All this theorizing about whether the Spurs brass needs to make some radical changes i.e. trade one of the Big 3 is kind of ridiculous.”
No, you and others are ridiculous for not actively considering such changes.
“Bring in the right bench and the Spurs are championship caliber.”
You act like “bringing in the right bench” is like changing a light bulb: easy and cheap. It doesn’t work that way, and magic wands are not allowed. So, what/who do you think we need, and how do you propose to acquire it/them?
“Let the Spurs benefit from Tony’s desire to get the last big contract of his career.”
Yeah, and if we can’t afford to keep him (quite likely), after one last superb season, we’ll just let him go for free, no problem. Then we can assure ourselves of a title-less decade. Congratulations. This kind of backwards thinking is starting to get on my nerves.
doggydogworld
May 15th, 2010 at 6:45 am
“…you should stop posting links to that idiot Dave Oshinsky.”
It’s “Dan” Oshinsky, and for an idiot, he had one of the most valid points I’ve heard yet on the subject: the decreasing value of the Euro in relation to the dollar. In other words, our American dollars compared to the currency he’s now receiving in Europe is looking much better over the past month or two.
bduran
May 15th, 2010 at 8:41 am
“I honestly don’t have a problem with people saying they prefer to prioritize winning now, rebuilding, or gambling at doing both. I think your suggestions in the middle category.”
No, my suggestion is clearly in the last category, and it’s not a “big” gamble at that.
“Look, you may not like WS48, but your reason why is not really accurate.”
I never said I didn’t like the the WS48 stat, I just don’t rely on it to the extent that you do, nor attribute things to it that it does not measure; such as “individual-only” influence on team wins. And I’ve taken the time to show you evidence that it does not measure such things through a process of inductive reasoning that you choose to ignore.
“Individuals have a HUGE effect on outcomes in basketball. Box score statistics tend to be very consistent from year to year and team to team for a given player. So it would suggest that in fact they depend on the PLAYER and not the TEAM.”
THE STAT MEASURES THE PLAYER IMPACT ON A “TEAM’s” WINNING. It is not JUST a reflection of box score stats. Can’t you understand that the WS48 stat is influenced by the quality of the “team”, not just on how productive an individual player is? Don’t you see that if TD, Manu, or TP, by themselves, played on the current, lets say, Raptor team, that their WS48 would be meaningfully lower, regardless of their “stats”? The stat is based on the impact a player can have on winning games. The more games you win, the higher that stat is going to be (all things being equal), and the better you’re surrounded by other good, solid team members, the more you’re going to win. It’s just basic logic. Please refrain from defending the indefensible.
“I agree that ultimately total production is better than per minute production. Per minute production is a great way to evaluate who should get more minutes, and obviously Manu is maxed out. Still, the duded produces at an elite level for us despite playing fewer minutes than many other top players.”
Now there’s an area of agreement!
“Honestly, even if you think there are flaws in using box scores to evaluate players, I don’t see how you can think that trading for a player who’s missed that many games over a 3 year period and who’s production is that poor, even years he played the whole season, is a good idea.”
His stats last year (ultimately, the most important year to look at) are just as good as McDyess’, and he’s only 26 years old, TEN years younger! Of course, again, I hear NO value given for YOUTH alone. Do you think good young players are not worth more than good old players? Why does it seem to be like pulling teeth to get an acknowledgment from you on this? And why do you think a “very solid team” and well-coached team like OKC (coach of the year, for crying out loud) started a guy like Krstic, won 50 games, and almost took out the defending champion Lakers? Because he sucks?! Let’s start getting real here.
May 15th, 2010 at 12:48 pm
You guys are wasting your time playing front office managers……….enjoy the rest of the playoffs and off-season.
May 15th, 2010 at 2:37 pm
Jim,
I just realized something, you quote me but you change what I said. You change the P in WP48 to S so it’s WS48. Does that mean you don’t know what measure I’m talking about? Wins Produced is an estimate of how many wins a player produced based in his box score. There is an adjustment made to account for help from team mates assists, blocks, and team defense but the difference it makes is really small. If you take two players from two different teams with identical box scores who play the same position, their WP48 will be almost identical.
Now there is something called Win Shares which I believe divides up team wins. Is this what you think I am talking about? Go to wagesofwins.com for details on the Wins Produced calculation.
“His stats last year (ultimately, the most important year to look at) are just as good as McDyess’, and he’s only 26 years old, TEN years younger!”
So you’re saying we should trade for a player who, in his peak years, plays just as good as McDyess, who’s trailing off and is no longer producing at his career norm? I think I’ll pass.
May 15th, 2010 at 3:08 pm
Yeah, and if we can’t afford to keep him (quite likely), after one last superb season, we’ll just let him go for free, no problem. Then we can assure ourselves of a title-less decade. Congratulations. This kind of backwards thinking is starting to get on my nerves
LOL. With 13.5 million free I think we could find great player. Not to mention a sign and trade deal could be done similar to what you are chattering about with Manu to OKC. As a new contributor to 480h let me say that your condescending, trite, overbearing posts are beyond annoying. When I see the dreaded JH posts I ,more often than not, find myself scrolling quickly down.
May 15th, 2010 at 3:22 pm
You act like “bringing in the right bench” is like changing a light bulb: easy and cheap. It doesn’t work that way, and magic wands are not allowed. So, what/who do you think we need, and how do you propose to acquire it/them
Again LOL. A healthy team is the quickest way to help the bench.
Many/TP/Hill as the #6
Signing Tiago is really important would be greatly beneficial to the bench. Pop would tinker with lineups of course, so….
Splitter/McDyess as the #7
Blair as the #8
Mahinmi and Bonner are question marks. Does Ian and/or Matt stay? I would like to finally give Ian a shot at some limited and consistent playing time. I think Bonner, because of his failed production in the post season, should go. That leaves Bonners, B0gans and Masons salary to help find the 9-11.
I have no idea what is going to happen with certain teams and there potential fire sales. I don’t know all the potential prospects via the D League, Foreign Leagues, potential draftees and free agents. That is for RC and Pop to decide. With the $4.8 million (?) they will save they and any extra Mr. Holt would authorize they can find the best players that would fill the Spurs needs. Gritty defenders, players that shoot the 3 at a good percentage and are clutch.
Now blow it our your a-hole jerk off.
May 15th, 2010 at 3:40 pm
Couple of typos:
That leaves Bonners, B0gans and Masons salary to help find the 9-11. This should be 10-11
And
Now blow it our your a-hole jerk off. This should be
Blow it out your a-hole jerk off.
May 15th, 2010 at 5:48 pm
bduran
May 15th, 2010 at 2:37 pm
Yes, I tend to go for most of my stats to basketball-reference.com. I must have misread WP48 as WS48, which you’re correct, is win shares per 48 minutes. I’ve heard of Wages of Wins before, but I’ve never really followed their stats. Let me just say, they appear to do a fairly decent job of separating out team influences from individual player impact as it relates to “team” wins. That said, the stats are quite complicated, which is not surprising, because it is virtually impossible to “completely” isolate the players impact on wins in a TEAM sport. For example, “important” role players that play very little, and provide more “intangible” benefit, are invariably going to be short-changed to some extent by this methodology. And, without going into details, this stat does not meaningfully change my basic assessment of how I evaluate a player’s contribution to a team. However, these stats are interesting enough that I will make an effort to consider and analyze them more closely in the future. It is doubtful, however, that such stats will ever dominate my assessment of player value as they apparently do for you. The following example is one reason why. Rashard Lewis of the Magic, for 2008-2009, was way more valuable, even on a per minute basis, than was Keith Bogans, though Bogans that year had a WP48 that was higher (.104 to .o99); and Gortat was not, in my estimation, almost three times as valuable as Lewis was on a per minute basis (.277 vs. .099).
“So you’re saying we should trade for a player who, in his peak years, plays just as good as McDyess, who’s trailing off and is no longer producing at his career norm? I think I’ll pass.”
Krstic is not yet at his peak, number one. His serious knee injury, and the adjustment period on his first year with a struggling franchise (at the time) has held him back some. We don’t have WP48 data from this past season. I expect that he did better last year, and should continue to show modest improvement next year, as well. Number two, I never said that Krstic is a star, or will ever be a star. He is a solid complimentary player, perfect for a team that want to surround him with their 2-4 “stars”, which could rightly be the Spurs. Harden, is the 20 year old guy with the star potential written all of his game & physical attributes, and it is he that this deal is “principally” about. Krstic simply fills the need for a young, and solid 7 footer in the middle. And his game is suited to improve within a disciplined Spurs system. Also, as part of the deal, we’re getting another “young” big guy with potential (White), or a late first round pick. Again, you overvalue established, aging, “star” players that have been fortunate to play for the “franchise of the decade”, and undervalue, if not entirely discount, “youth”, potential, and getting players that fit specific needs.
Other than that, if the Spurs GM, at this critical juncture, looks for reasons to reject our prospects for a “rebuild on the run” strategy, using similar methods of assessment & evaluation as do you, we can officially welcome the Spurs to, the “No Title” decade.
May 15th, 2010 at 6:00 pm
Notable 2010 Unrestricted Free Agents that Spurs should take a look at:
Ray Allen
Ronald Murray
Hakim Warrick
Jannero Pargo
Brendan Haywood
Johan Petro
Rasaul Butler
Travis Outlaw
Derek Fisher
Jermaine O’Neal
Udonis Haslem
Dorrell Wright
Kurt Thomas
Al Harrington
Eddie House
David Lee
Francisco Elson
Amir Johnson
Kyle Korver
Josh Howard
Of this group, I would like the Spurs to acquire a 3-point shooter, a rebounder/defensive big, and a defensive wing. The 5 most likely to ACTUALLY be considered by the Spurs, to me, are:
Ray Allen
Johan Petro/Amir Johnson
Travis Outlaw
Kyle Korver
May 15th, 2010 at 6:03 pm
*Correction*
Now that I think about it, I think Pop would be more inclined to picking Rasaul Butler over Kyle Korver, even though Korver is automatic from 3. Butler is a slightly better defender than Korver, so that gives him the edge.
May 15th, 2010 at 6:28 pm
“When I see the dreaded JH posts I ,more often than not, find myself scrolling quickly down.”
That’s good, because too much reality is something you and many others on here prefer not to confront.
“…..a sign and trade deal could be done similar to what you are chattering about with Manu to OKC.”
Manu to OKC is not a sign & trade deal. In those deals, the trade is agreed to BEFORE a new contract is signed.
“…..your condescending, trite, overbearing posts are beyond annoying.”
My posts are in NO way trite. Condescending? Perhaps, sometimes, for good reason. Overbearing? Well, I’m not afraid to offer a considered opinion, and I might feel the need to be a bit forceful in my writing at times, particularly when mentioning even the thought of trading the venerable TP & Manu. I suppose I get frustrated at times with the continuous lack of logic, and the idol worship that poses as a reasonable assessment of the Spurs needs and capabilities at this critical juncture for the franchise. Sorry if you’ve been offended. That’s not my intent.
ChrisG
May 15th, 2010 at 3:22 pm
“Many/TP/Hill as the #6
Signing Tiago is really important would be greatly beneficial to the bench. Pop would tinker with lineups of course, so….
Splitter/McDyess as the #7
Blair as the #8″
Can I ask you a few questions? What if we can’t sign Splitter for the MLE? And if we can’t, what happens to this team as Duncan continues to age, retires in 2 years, Dice too, and the injury-prone Manu heads into year 36? Do you think we’re going to contend then, with the likes of Ian & crew supporting TP, Hill, & Blair? What about truly getting better defensively on the perimeter, and from the three-point line? Is using Mason, Bonner, & Bogans’ measly cap space going to be sufficient to effectively address these problems? Give me some suggestions for player pick-ups to fill these important gaps, using the money that we have available?
“Now blow it our your a-hole jerk off.”
Now, that wasn’t nice. Shame on you.
ChrisG
May 15th, 2010 at 3:40 pm
“Now blow it our your a-hole jerk off. This should be
Blow it out your a-hole jerk off.”
Hey, Chris, thanks for the clarification!
May 15th, 2010 at 6:40 pm
ZeusVizzle
May 15th, 2010 at 6:00 pm
“Ray Allen
Johan Petro/Amir Johnson
Travis Outlaw
Kyle Korver”
I don’t believe we can afford Allen or Korver. The Clippers may decide to resign Outlaw, and they have more money. I’m open to the Petro/Amir Johnson suggestions.
ZeusVizzle
May 15th, 2010 at 6:03 pm
Butler is also more affordable.
Just checking, but you do realize that our funds are very limited to pick up hardly any “useful” free agents. Right?
May 15th, 2010 at 6:47 pm
Manu to OKC is not a sign & trade deal. In those deals, the trade is agreed to BEFORE a new contract is signed
Well that is true Jim.
But that doesn’t change the fact that if Tony does play for the silver & black next year it does not take away options from the Spurs. If he is playing well they could extend him in the middle of the season and then trade him or if is playing poorly just allowing him to become a FA opens open a very nice chunk of change to sign another player.
If he is playing well and refuses to come to terms with the Spurs brass than he can just walk. Worst case our team gets alot of cap space.
Don’t ask me who they would sign bc I have not much idea who is a FA at that time. Actually it is really not that simple. It depends on how Manu and Hill are playing anyway. There might not be a need for a point guard. That is actually another benefit of not trading Tony right now. You allow another year to look at Hill and then make a personnel decision.
May 15th, 2010 at 6:53 pm
Give me some suggestions for player pick-ups to fill these important gaps, using the money that we have available?
See previous comment by me. I am not a GM and I don’t know of every player in the D League or over in a foreign league. That is RC’s job.
Can he find a veteran i.e. Mario Elie or an unknown player looking to earn his stripes i.e. Stephen Jackson or a player from the draft who can make an immediate impact? I sure as hell hope so. I know we need defense and Bogans isn’t the man and I know we need another shooter, preferably someone with some size and Bonner or Mason didn’t get the job done.
May 15th, 2010 at 7:02 pm
There are players every year that take their game to another level or just change their game.
Look at Frye and Dudley. They both are playing better and have different skill sets than they had last year.
Who is that player that is going to realize that if he wants a career in the NBA he is going to have to specialize in defense, ala Bowen. It is RC’s job to find these players and Pop’s job to help them develop.
May 15th, 2010 at 7:52 pm
ChrisG
May 15th, 2010 at 6:47 pm
“……If he is playing well they could extend him……”
The problem is, Tony may want to wait, and we simply may not be able to afford him in the final analysis. This is certainly possible if he has a stellar year next year, and appears all healthy. The problem with waiting is that we really do need to get younger at most of our key positions, and start the process of reinvigorating our team. And actually, I’m more in favor of trading Manu than TP for two reasons: (1) it gets us younger faster without making too many moves; and (2) I’m concerned with George as a replacement for TP. I think he’s more of a SG. Also, it’s just simply more difficult to find the right match for TP in a trade, for both teams involved, than it is for Manu.
“There are players every year that take their game to another level or just change their game.
Look at Frye and Dudley. They both are playing better and have different skill sets than they had last year.”
That is true, but you have admit, Phoenix got a little bit lucky with them. Lets hope we have some luck on our side to this year. We certainly didn’t have it with RJ!
“Who is that player that is going to realize that if he wants a career in the NBA he is going to have to specialize in defense, ala Bowen. It is RC’s job to find these players and Pop’s job to help them develop.”
True, and that’s a VERY difficult to do when we’re over the cap with little money. They’ll have to REALLY earn their pay this year to get this team in contention next year, and still keep it afloat in the post TD, Manu years.
May 16th, 2010 at 7:04 am
Ian- Then maybe Duncan should renegotiate. Should we pay him MAX to NOT BE A DOMINANT PLAYER? I think loyalty is fine, but you have to be loyal to the fans who allow you to make that money.
Tim is a stand up guy. A LOYAL guy. Unfortunately loyalty doesnt win rings
MCDOOSH-
JJ BARREA and other suns scrubs who are 6′ 180 didnt seem to care about your size when they grabbed offensive boards. PS if youre so big then why are you such a pussy, relying on 18 footers instead of posting up CHANNING FRYE who is about 110 lbs?
My daughters have more intensity and post up ability than you. I bet your mother is proud of the wimp she raised. You make Bonner look like Rodman
May 16th, 2010 at 8:01 am
Trade TP,
TD took less than max on his two year extension.
May 16th, 2010 at 10:21 am
Jim,
Rashard Lewis suffers under WP48 because of the position adjustment. He was a very productive SF in Seattle, but plays a lot of PF in Orlando. Playing out of position seems to have hurt him, for example his FG% dropped as soon as he went to Orlando. Additionally, raw production tends to be higher the closer you play to the basket. Easier shots, more boards, etc. So when calculating WP48 you take the raw production per 48 and subtract the average production the players position. So if you used instead the raw production for the average SF instead of the average PF, his WP48 would go up. Something to consider when using WP48.
There is now an automated Wins Produced web site that lists the raw production (Adj_P48, this is the raw production with the small team adjustment made.). So now you can look at the raw production if you don’t agree with the position of the player. This is often necessary with the automated site since it uses some sort of logic (I forget how it does it) to determine player position. For example it has Jason Kidd at SG.
http://www.permanent-sketch.com/WinsProduced/Main.html#/Home
May 16th, 2010 at 10:41 am
Yes, I know TD took less money. And I think very highly of him for doing so. At the same time, he’s not the center piece of our franchise. Weve seen this for the past 3 years; blowing fourth quarters, inability to score, tempo, etc.
Keeping Tim is fine. Paying him top dollar on our team, trying to pretend his O and D can save us is not fine.
Again about 99% of the posters on here dont recognize simple things about the BUSINESS. Such as life, and on a faster pace, NBA’ers have short spans and even shorter primes. I want to RELOAD, not fumble around for a few years getting 8-5th place in the West, then not get into the playoffs, get a lottery…..
It was/is the whole MEANING behind my name. If we had two legit players instead of TP. We could have contended with the Suns. We should all know how this works. Getting THE CORRECT GUYS to play THEIR ROLE.
Not old guys trying to play a role. I still dont understand why you would play someone who has limited athleticism and a vet over guys who hustle.
It doesnt matter WHO we trade. As long as we (THE SPURS) get better. Its fairly obvious that we’re a ways off and only getting worse.
May 16th, 2010 at 11:57 am
@TradeTP -
“It doesnt matter WHO we trade. As long as we (THE SPURS) get better. Its fairly obvious that we’re a ways off and only getting worse.”
I 100% agree. However, in regards to TD, our entire offensive and defensive scheme is reliant on Tim. For the last decade plus, every perimeter defender for the Spurs has been told, “force guys off the 3pt line and funnel them to Tim.” If you trade TD, you’re essentially starting over because there is no one in the league that has been a better anchor in the middle defensively over the past 10 years. Outside of Dwight Howard, there’s no replacement that won’t dramatically change the entire way our team plays defense. And I’ll admit, TD has slipped over the past 2-3 years on both ends. But compared to the rest of the league, he’s still a top tier defensive big.
Offensively, he’s not the automatic double team he used to be (at least not the 2nd half of the season), but again, compared to the rest of the league, he’s still a highly efficient weapon. Luckily, on that end of the court, we have a few other weapons to lessen the burden on him.
In short, you don’t trade Duncan. He’s still one of the best all-around post players in the league, you’re never going to get enough talent coming back in any trade, and he’s a legend that needs to retire in a Spurs’ uniform.
May 16th, 2010 at 12:13 pm
bduran
May 16th, 2010 at 10:21 am
“He was a very productive SF in Seattle, but plays a lot of PF in Orlando. Playing out of position seems to have hurt him, for example his FG% dropped as soon as he went to Orlando.”
In the year we’re talking about Lewis’ WP48 vs. BOGANS, 2008-2009, Lewis was at or above his career avg. that year in ppg., rpg., bpg., 3-point %, & FT %. His FG% was lower by 1.5%, at least partially due to him taking the most three-point shots of his career.
So, as I said, I don’t see how “Bogans” could have been a better “win-producer” per minute than Lewis that year. I know you mentioned something about “raw production” and playing out of position, but even so, it’s obvious that one has to be VERY careful when RELYING TOO MUCH on this one measurement, the WP48. And that is my point.
May 16th, 2010 at 12:20 pm
Trade Tp
May 16th, 2010 at 10:41 am
“I want to RELOAD, not fumble around for a few years getting 8-5th place in the West, then not get into the playoffs, get a lottery….. ”
I agree.
Tyler
May 16th, 2010 at 11:57 am
“In short, you don’t trade Duncan. He’s still one of the best all-around post players in the league, you’re never going to get enough talent coming back in any trade, and he’s a legend that needs to retire in a Spurs’ uniform.”
I think part of Trade Tp’s complaint is that Duncan’s SALARY is hurting us now. Unfortunately, however, there’s no easy solution to that problem.
May 16th, 2010 at 5:33 pm
FYI TradeTP, Tim Duncan’s loyalty did win Spurs three more rings when he could’ve simply signed with another team after 2000 and 2003 seasons when he was a FA.
…and I don’t think the front office was giving him a max contract extension for his less-than-top-notch services on the court, but rather to keep him until his retirement as a Spur. I mean, he’ll be 34 and 35 when that 2-year extension takes effect - do you truly think that the front office was dumb enough to not see that he’ll be in decline?
May 16th, 2010 at 6:13 pm
Jim
“I know you mentioned something about “raw production” and playing out of position, but even so, it’s obvious that one has to be VERY careful when RELYING TOO MUCH on this one measurement, the WP48. And that is my point.”
Well, you definitely have to understand what you’re looking at. This stat is obviously more accurate for players who’s position is clear cut. However, in the case of Rashard’s production it makes sense. It said last year that Bogans playing in position was average, and Rashard playing out of position was average. I doubt that a difference of .005 is statistically significant for this measure. Take Rashard’s production and put it at his natural position and his production approaches his career norm. So this stat has said that Rashard is an above average SF and average PF. Good player to have on your team IMO (although not at the price).
Now, you may want to argue that Bogan’s shouldn’t have even been rated as an average shooting guard that year and I think the reason he balanced out to average is that despite being subpar is most everything, his rebound rate is really good. Also, at first look his FG% is awful (and second look, and third). However, he took mostly 3s which he shoot at a 33.3% rate. This is still not good but puts him much closer to average shooting efficiency. This is why I like this stat, because it’s hard to look at everything in a box score and come to an accurate conclusion about productivity, especially for role players.
To put it another way, if you try to look at the box score to argue against this stat you’ll lose. This stat does a much better job than you or I at linking the components of the box score to what wins games. However, this stat doesn’t have 100% explanatory power. Still, if there is a large difference between two players I would be inclined to trust Wins Produced over my own subjective judgement. I’m no expert and even the experts (i.e. coaches and GMs) often get it wrong.
May 16th, 2010 at 6:19 pm
I was thinking today while waiting on the 12th Tee about the Spurs next season and my thoughts about their bench.
I am seeing Ginobili, Blair, Splitter, Mahinmi and two others. That is quite abit of “beef” so far on the bench. I would love seeing the Spurs recommit to defense next year. I can’t begin to describe how much I hate games that we lose because of giving up too many O rebounds. I think one reason the Spurs couldn’t get it done this year was because the team didn’t real an identity. There was no real formula on how this team won games. Down the stretch, the formula was give the ball to Manu, set a screen and get out of the way.
Bring back the ole’ Spurs philosophy. Control the glass, play tough D without fouling. We have enough talent offensively to win if we play suberb D again.
Play big lineups again. Duncan, Dice and Blair. Mahinmi, Splitter and Duncan. Duncan and Splitter are good passers. Bring back the grind it out defensive mindset that won us the 1999,2003 &2005 titles.
*All comments based on Tiago signing the MLE this year. (Let’s friggin get that guy over here)
May 16th, 2010 at 6:21 pm
Pop needs to preach defense again. Coach it, drill it into their heads time and again. Mahinmi is a foul waiting to happen but isn’t Pop supposed to be the best coach in the league? Alot of people think so. Let’s see him prove it again.
May 16th, 2010 at 6:29 pm
The obvious question that begs is this? What the hell are the Spurs supposed to do with RJ, a guy making $15 Mil?
I think RJ should only play 20-25 minutes a game if the brass can’t unload him this offseason. Cut our losses and find an athletic swing man who is committed to D and has a better 3 point shot.
If he stays, than the only plays half the game and he gets 2 lobs a night, 2 fast break cuts to the hoop & 3 penetrations on kick outs by the initial penetrator.
I just want the Spurs to regain their identity again.
May 16th, 2010 at 6:51 pm
Jefferson for Battier straight up.
May 16th, 2010 at 7:13 pm
bduran
May 16th, 2010 at 6:13 pm
I agree, that box scores are insufficient, and the wages of wins stats may very well provide a useful tool in valuing a players impact on his team in past seasons on the court. However, in terms of valuing a player in the sense of making an acquisition for a franchise, these stats, while useful, are hardly sufficient. Indeed, as you even admit, “……this stat doesn’t have 100% explanatory power….”.
So true. In fact, there are loads of intangible-types of factors that are also very important to consider, such as: age, injury history, character, “fit” on the team, ability to successfully fill a specific need, athletic attributes, a “gut” feeling about the player’s potential, through direct observation of his “game”, etc. Please do your best to properly assess and weigh all of these factors before you pooh pooh the OKC deal I proposed. For example, you have still not mentioned once that “youth” could very well be a positive variable in our favor, as a franchise, in this deal.
ChrisG
May 16th, 2010 at 6:19 pm
Some fair points, Chris. I especially like your suggestion of getting back to Spurs “defense”, by having another big/tall player in their next to TD; someone that can play good/tough position “D”, and alter shots without fouling. And yes, chemistry/identity on both sides of the ball is crucial to Spur success, and must improve, and solidify before next season’s all-star break. I just hope the FO is able to make the right acquisitions/trades to assemble a competitive team, and still keep an eye on a future without TD/Manu in the coming years. We have to gradually build a sound, talented, young core over the next 2 years that will fit well with Hill & Blair. That is our future.
May 16th, 2010 at 11:58 pm
do the spurs still own the rights to nando de colo? if so why isnt anybody talking about him? he has been a very good shooter in europe. bringing him over i think would take great strides at fixing our shooting problem. i read something about him shooting 50%+from 3′s in the euro playoffs. i know that seems like a high percentage, but im sure thats what it said. unfortunately i cant find that article =( ill keep searching for it though
May 17th, 2010 at 2:09 am
@Tradetp and others.
“It doesnt matter WHO we trade. As long as we (THE SPURS) get better. Its fairly obvious that we’re a ways off and only getting worse.”
I just don’t think that we are that badly off.
We got to the 2nd round, we add Tiago retain our Guard rotation, put a couple of draft picks on and hope we get some growth out of Hairston to add to Hill & Dejaun (plus his shiny new jumpshot).
If either of Temple or Gee works out we can have legit improvement, and contend.
I’m not seeing the need for a complete reload.
May 17th, 2010 at 5:28 am
Ian/Tyler- Why living in the past?
Bushka- Getting splitter would still be a ?
Will Pop play him?
We cant afford to give Bonner McD minutes
May 17th, 2010 at 5:39 am
Jim,
I agree with everything you said except for the statement that I only use wins produced to evaluate your trade. While D.J. White and Harden have yet to produce, I think both players show promise, especially Harden, and one or both would likely help our franchise in the future. However, due to lack of prodcution, age (players don’t improve much after, if any, after 26), and injury history, I think trading for Krstic is a bad idea. To my mind, the only player who could really help us next year in this group is Harden, and I think it highly unlikely he players better than Manu.
At this point our difference seems to lie with Krstic. I think he adds no value, and you think he’s still young enough to turn a corner. Only time will tell I guess.
On another note. I’m less excited about Tiago after reading his draft express profile. I though I’d remembered his scouting report saying he had a good jump shot but this doesn’t seem to be the case. According to draft express he scores mostly in the low post and doesn’t have a great rebound rate. Oh well, I still want him but he doesn’t quite seem like the TD complement I envisioned.
May 17th, 2010 at 8:29 am
@TradeTP
Under every reasonable scenario, trading TD makes us a worse basketball team, and farther away from championship. It’s a bad, bad idea.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:31 am
On another note. I’m less excited about Tiago after reading his draft express profile. I though I’d remembered his scouting report saying he had a good jump shot but this doesn’t seem to be the case. According to draft express he scores mostly in the low post and doesn’t have a great rebound rate. Oh well, I still want him but he doesn’t quite seem like the TD complement I envisioned.
Tiago is young, very very strong and has quicker feet than anybody in the front court we’ve currently got. Size and speed is a great combo plus I only see him getting better under the coaching of Pop and Chip.
He can shoot hooks with either hand and he is an adequate passer. His mobility on defense would allow the Spurs some wonderful lineup flexibility. There is a reason our GM wants him and many other GM’s around the league are talking about whether the Spurs can get him or not. He has a ton of raw talent and was still considered the best player in that league.
Odds are he will be a difference maker.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:38 am
We have to gradually build a sound, talented, young core over the next 2 years that will fit well with Hill & Blair. That is our future
Jim, I don’t quite see things that grimly. In this age of free agency, no one can see the Spurs future. The Spurs will have alot of money to spend on players after TD’s and Manu’s contracts expire. What are they going to do with Tony? That is about 45 MILLION dollars/year of flexibility. How they spend that money is a huge factor in the Spurs future.
May 17th, 2010 at 11:11 am
I think this is worth moting with all the talk abiout Tony to NYC. Tony’s good friend Theirry Henry just signed a deal to play in the MLS for the NY Red Bulls. Wonder if he tries to persuade tony into coming there
May 17th, 2010 at 11:40 am
bduran
May 17th, 2010 at 5:39 am
“……While D.J. White and Harden have yet to produce”…..”
Why do you group Harden with White? Harden was tied for 5th in minutes per game, essentially the 6th man, on an OKC team that put up 50 wins, and took the defending champion Lakers to 6 tough games in their first playoff series. Harden was their 4th leading scorer at 10 ppg, in 22 mpg of playing time. Now granted, he has some room for improvement, coming off a rookie season at age 20, but to say he has not yet produced? Who’s production are you comparing him to, Durant, Westbrook? Lets be realistic here, Harden “produced” for that team.
“However, due to lack of production, age (players don’t improve much after, if any, after 26), and injury history, I think trading for Krstic is a bad idea. To my mind, the only player who could really help us next year in this group is Harden, and I think it highly unlikely he players better than Manu.”
I think you’re much too hard on Krstic. You don’t seem to understand that fully recovering from serious knee injuries takes a good deal of time (look at Brand in Philly - he’s just starting to come around, though probably never to the level he once was). In Krstic’s case, the injury came at such a young age (23) that he was not even at his peak yet. As a result, the knee injury delayed his blossoming substantially, and in my view he definitely has some upside left. But again, he doesn’t need to be the centerpiece of your team. In fact he can be the weakest of your starting five, and as long as you build-in some studs around him he could certainly be sufficient to allow us to transition successfully into the future. And he does add value NOW. He’s 7 feet tall for one (and I repeat again, being TALL has some value, in and of itself), has similar numbers to McDyess, and is TEN years younger (that type of “age difference” as well, has some value in and of itself). Also, Harden won’t play as well as a healthy Manu NEXT year, but it is probable that he does so in years 3 through 10+! Thus, as I keep repeating, it is obvious you do not give proper value to AGE, HEIGHT, or POTENTIAL for employing a “retool & rebuild on the run” strategy, which must begin NOW for this team to avoid several down years starting in the next few years.
“I’m less excited about Tiago after reading his draft express profile. I though I’d remembered his scouting report saying he had a good jump shot but this doesn’t seem to be the case.”
Splitter’s main help is on the “defensive” end, which could be quite useful for this team. That said, I’ve never looked at him as a panacea in any way. His acquisition would not be sufficient to allow us to truly contend, in my view. We would still need to make a minimum of two other significant pick-ups, not including the draft (a perimeter defender, and a “good”, clutch 3-point shooter).
ChrisG
May 17th, 2010 at 9:38 am
“The Spurs will have alot of money to spend on players after TD’s and Manu’s contracts expire. What are they going to do with Tony? That is about 45 MILLION dollars/year of flexibility. How they spend that money is a huge factor in the Spurs future.”
That’s not the most effective way to “build a championship caliber team”, and expect to have relatively small gaps of time when we are not capable of truly contending. One cannot simply “buy a team”, after the old one expires, and expect to be “truly” competitive again relatively quickly. I completely disagree with that strategy. Several “key” players on teams that win championships often need to play together for a few years before they’re ready to win a title together. The Celtics of 2007-08 are the exception, not the rule. It’s very rare that you trade for or sign “more than one” key player in a given year, and are championship-ready by the following season. Guys generally need to grow together, and develop a strong chemistry before they can take it to the top level (i.e., winning a title). Thus, if we can build a solid core BEFORE Duncan leaves, we’ll be in a much better position to be opportunistic with a top FA signing, maximizing his impact, an remaining highly competitive in the years immediately after TD’s departure.
“That is about 45 MILLION dollars/year of flexibility.”
I believe that’s closer to 35 million.
May 17th, 2010 at 12:01 pm
bduran
May 17th, 2010 at 5:39 am
By the way, since you’re so hard on Krstic, if we get Splitter, I’m okay with keeping McDyess, and getting Harden & White (or 1st round pick) for Manu. If we did this, I would just as soon resign TP, if he continues to stop playing in the Summer, and we can get him for a “reasonable” price. And please, don’t under-estimate Harden’s likely production next year if he were in a Spur uniform, and given a significant role (25 mpg.). It’d be about THREE points less per game than Manu. And, of course, we’re also building for the future by acquiring quality “young” players!
May 17th, 2010 at 12:14 pm
ChrisG
May 16th, 2010 at 6:51 pm
“Jefferson for Battier straight up.”
I doubt the Rockets would do that, and besides, the Rockets are way over the cap, and could not absorb the 8 million dollar difference in their salaries. Too bad, because I would love that deal.
To have any shot at Battier, we’d have to offer McDyess & Hairston (& perhaps Mahinmi), and see if they’d bite.
May 17th, 2010 at 12:49 pm
Kristic? Really? Kristic? I’m sure the Thunder would give up Kristic in a heartbeat. Are you talking about the Kristic who can’t rebound or play any defense…the slow, balding guy who can’t jump? How exactly is he an upgrade over McDyess or even Bonner?
May 17th, 2010 at 12:57 pm
“but it is probable that he does so in years 3 through 10+! ”
I made this point myself already. Which is why I said this trade would help the team in the long run and hurt in the short run. Also when I said “has yet to produce” I meant produce at a high level. Not a knock on him, he’s a promising rookie, especially when you consider his age.
“It’d be about THREE points less per game than Manu. ”
I don’t evaluate players by points scored. Scoring efficiency is more important. Next year Manu will likely score more efficiently, get more assists, steals etc. After 3 years Manu may not be in the league anymore and Harden will be coming into his prime so, yeah, Harden will be better.
Also, according to WP48 McDyess was average this year and Krstic offered nothing. Of course, I have no idea what McDyess will offer next year. Maybe nothing.
May 17th, 2010 at 2:07 pm
David G
May 17th, 2010 at 12:49 pm
“Kristic? Really? Kristic? I’m sure the Thunder would give up Kristic in a heartbeat. Are you talking about the Kristic who can’t rebound or play any defense…the slow, balding guy who can’t jump? How exactly is he an upgrade over McDyess or even Bonner?”
Krstic averaged 8.4 ppg. & 5 rpg. McDyess averaged 5.8 ppg. & 5.9 rpg., in about the same number of minutes. In addition, Krstic is a decent defender, is 7 feet tall, has a satisfactory mid-range jumper, and is TEN years YOUNGER than McDyess. Nobody is saying the guy’s a studly athlete. McDyess is really a PF. We don’t need that as much next year because Blair’s going to develop a dependable mid-range jumper in the off-season, and we simply need to find him minutes, BOTH with & without TD in the line-up. Krstic gives us some length in the middle for the rotation. And as I’ve stated repeatedly, the deal is more about Harden, a 20 year old that likely will become a stud in fairly short order, one that we can utilize for perhaps a decade or more (in addition to White, or a 1st rounder). Lets not get too short-sighted here. Do you want to put all your depleting eggs (some depleting in quality) in a basket that’s going to be empty in a few years, or do you want enough edible eggs left at that point?
bduran
May 17th, 2010 at 12:57 pm
“I don’t evaluate players by points scored. Scoring efficiency is more important.”
I’m not comparing Manu last season with Harden last season because Harden has upside to his overall game every year over the next 5-6 years. Manu has no upside left, and in fact, is likely to show some decline in the next 2-3 years. And already, Harden’s scoring efficiency is showing signs of improvement. For example, his TS% was .584 (not bad!) in the playoffs against LA (.551 for the year). Manu’s TS% was .572 for this years playoffs, and is .585 for his career. Obviously Manu does other things well compared to Harden at this point, that’s why OKC’s starting center and White (or 1st round pick) are also in the deal. And as I said in a previous post, we could also just delete the McDyess/Krstic part of the deal, and leave the rest of the deal the same. We get Harden, White (or 1st round pick) for Manu. The only potential snag in that deal is the financial aspect.
May 17th, 2010 at 2:16 pm
Tyler- Really? Since TD is still one of the best, as you say, why does our interior D still blow? Why cant we control tempo? Why cant we score?
Youre living in the past, and saying that trading Tim is will make us one of the worst teams in the NBA is retarded.
First of all, if he is still a top level player, we should be able to get WHOEVER we want for him.
Second, you have to be an idiot for denouncing ideas before they happen or hypotheticals are posed.
Your ignorance is based on having a favorite player. Which is fine. I understand you like Tim. But to claim he’s still one of the best, is unreasonable, and to not try to make our team better by looking at ALL OPTIONS is even more ignorant.
Tim for Luol Deng and Kirk. That would make us worse?
May 17th, 2010 at 3:00 pm
Jim,
Why would the Thunder (who are already almost a championship level team) trade two key, young members of their up-and-coming team? What makes the Thunder so scary is that they are still so young, and they are developing chemistry the whole league admires. If Harden is going to be as good as you say, why would the Thunder want to give him up? I like your thinking, but this trade just isn’t practical enough. The Thunder would not be getting enough to accept this deal because Manu demands the ball, and they already have two stars who demand the ball- which would redefine his role to basically spot up shooter- which Harden is already excellent at for a better price and age.
May 17th, 2010 at 3:49 pm
@TradeTP
“Tim for Luol Deng and Kirk. That would make us worse?”
Yes! We wouldn’t make the playoffs if that trade was executed! If you honestly think the Spurs would be better able to compete for title with Deng and Hinrich in place of TD (this year and down the road), I don’t know what to tell you…We’re already stretched for competent big men and your solution is to……get rid of our best big man?!? What kind of sense does that make?
“But to claim he’s still one of the best, is unreasonable”
What kind of metrics are you looking at? Please provide proof because everything I’ve looked at says that TD is still one of the best low post players in the game. TD was 5th in PER during regular season, trailing only one other big - Chris Bosh.
“Really? Since TD is still one of the best, as you say, why does our interior D still blow? Why cant we control tempo? Why cant we score?”
Again, anyone can make claims, but until there is actual stats to back your claim up, I’ll assume there are none. The burden of proof is on you my friend. Prove me wrong. (I looked at the stats, and TD is still one heckuva defensive player. Our interior defense is good when he’s on the court, bad when he’s off it.)
As I’ve said before, I’m not against exploring all options. But I can’t foresee any trade involving TD bringing back equal value. I’m not against a TD trade because of the fan in me, I’m against it because I seriously doubt there is any deal out there that will prove beneficial, both in the short and long term.
May 17th, 2010 at 5:42 pm
Jim,
I didn’t realize how good his TS% was. Of course, I’ve always said he’s going to be good. He also posted an average WP48, which is really good for a rookie since I believe the rookie average is usually about .05o WP48. I also agree that Manu is likely to decline some each year. My only point is about this trade is that it makes us worse next year. I don’t think Manu’s decline and Harden’s improvement will make up the current difference of .109 and .285. Maybe in the second year, but I wouldn’t bet on it until the third. Also, like you said, the finances don’t work. Through in even an average player and I like it a lot better. Maybe Collison if we don’t get Splitter or Thabo if we do. This makes the money work and we don’t lose much production next year. I’d still rather keep Ginobili, but I think this trade is more reasonable and makes the money work better. I don’t remember how close it has to be.
May 17th, 2010 at 6:52 pm
Tyler- I really wish that you would understand the game of basketball before you speak about it.
Tim has three years left on his contract. Hes not SUPER STAR MATERIAL. If he were Channing Frye wouldnt be looking like a beast. 40% FT shooting? 1-2 good games a series? That isnt close to being someone to build around or pay highest on team.
You want proof? First be able to watch the game and actually comprehend what is going on.
This year: Lowest PER in playoff career. Lowest DR% of career. Lowest AST%. WorstOWS. Lowest PPG. Lowest APG. LOWEST RPG per MP.
Obviously you cant read.
We’re already stretched for competent big men and your solution is to……get rid of our best big man?!? What kind of sense does that make?
It would give us a Fwd going into prime and a backup PG. And get rid of a old player that isnt worth the most on our team. It would also fill holes we have with athletic players.
Lose McDoosh/Bonner/Mason/
Package Parker/Jefferson
Tim is only going to get worse. He had a great reg season. But again, thats only cool if you care about not winning a ring. Hes only going to get worse.
May 17th, 2010 at 7:52 pm
Araz
May 17th, 2010 at 3:00 pm
“Why would the Thunder (who are already almost a championship level team) trade two key, young members of their up-and-coming team?”
Well, there’s a first, someone worrying about the other team not getting enough in a proposed Spur trade!
First of all, the Thunder have more young talent than they know what to do with (Ibaka 20, Harden 20, Durant 21, Westbrook 21, Mullens 21, Maynor 22, Green 23, White 23, Sefolosha 26, Collison 29). Nine players 26 and under, with most in their rotation, and the others with the potential to get there in the next couple of years). Their problem is that they’re imbalanced to the “young side”, just like we’re imbalanced to the “old side” (a perfect fit for a deal), and could not win a title with this group for at least another few years, as currently constructed. Some experienced, playoff-tested veterans are always needed in the mix to win a title. Manu & McDyess would be a perfect injection of championship tested veterans that conceivably could allow them to “truly” contend for the title NEXT year. Do you realize how dangerous that team would be with Manu in the mix?
“The Thunder would not be getting enough to accept this deal because Manu demands the ball, and they already have two stars who demand the ball- which would redefine his role to basically spot up shooter- which Harden is already excellent at for a better price and age.”
What are you talking about, “Manu demands the ball”?! Are you kidding me? What makes Manu so great is that he can play great with, AND “without demanding the ball”. When he plays so well in the line-up with TP, who do you think has the ball the most? Not Manu. He can create, and score off the dribble, but he does not need to “dominate” the ball to be very effective. In addition, Durant is also not a ballhog. Westbrook has the ball the most, which is pretty normal, he’s the point guard that averages 8 assists per game. No, Manu would not be stuck with being a three-point shooter. There’s no reason he wouldn’t be doing basically the same thing he does on the Spurs (especially when paired with TP in the starting line-up). He’ll hit threes, iso, penetrate, dish, etc. Manu, Durant, and Westbrook would be deadly together. In fact, it would help Westbrook not force up too many shots, and focus more on getting the ball to his best scorers; Manu & Durant.
That young team would love to have Manu’s championship experience, particularly when next season’s playoffs roll around. If they have any thoughts of winning NOW, they would pull the trigger on this deal. And all GM’s want to win NOW. Giving up just ONE young stud & a draft pick is not going to sacrifice what they’re building there in OKC. Not a bit. Giving up Harden wouldn’t be easy, but they’ve got plenty of quality youth, and they’re getting GINOBLI, and can afford him (they’re under the cap). The fact is, it’s the price they have to pay to have a legitimate shot at the title in the next 3 years. They’re not going to win a title with all 23 year olds. No way.
Anyway, I’ve now made the case for OKC. I’ve already explained in some detail in previous posts why the deal is good for the Spurs. It’s a win-win deal.
Tyler
May 17th, 2010 at 3:49 pm
I do agree that trading TD is one of the last things I would even consider. In fact, my only three Spur untradeables are TD, Blair, & Hill.
May 17th, 2010 at 7:56 pm
Araz
May 17th, 2010 at 3:00 pm
From my post above:
“First of all, the Thunder have more young talent than they know what to do with (Ibaka 20, Harden 20, Durant 21, Westbrook 21, Mullens 21, Maynor 22, Green 23, White 23, Sefolosha 26, Collison 29).”
I left out Krstic, age 26.
May 17th, 2010 at 8:08 pm
Harden, White and a 1st round pick for Manu? No disrespect Mr. Henderson but you do understand that’s a seriously lopsided deal right? The last thing OKC needs right now is a big contract that will kill their flexibility to sign their drafted players. Why would they send their promising young guard and a pick just to take in an enormous contract for a player past his prime?
TD to Chicago for Deng and Hinrich is a far-fetched idea at best. I know Chicago has been shopping these two players, but why would they want to take TD (like Manu, way past his prime) and his $40 mil left on his two-year contract, when they have a promising front-court duo of Noah and Gibson? Chicago wouldn’t want to pay a player $20 mil to be a backup. Again, just not realistic.
May 17th, 2010 at 8:17 pm
bduran
May 17th, 2010 at 5:42 pm
“Maybe Collison if we don’t get Splitter or Thabo if we do.”
If you don’t want Krstic, it would probably have to be Collison, with or without Splitter, which would be alright with me. We can’t be too big or deep on the front line to have a shot at taking out the Lakers. Plus, I don’t think OKC would be willing to give up both Harden & Thabo.
“I’d still rather keep Ginobili…..”
Hey, no Spur fan likes the idea of trading Manu, myself included. I’m just trying to look at it in terms of the overall health of the franchise, with both short and long-term in mind. I think you might be surprised at how well we could do relatively quickly with this trade. We have a healthier, determined, TP, in a contract year; and we have one of most improved players in the league this past year looking for another shot at the award (Hill) (not to mention the Blair wild card). These two guards will need to play well and take up some of the slack from losing Manu. And Harden, he could make a relatively big jump next year. He certainly has the tools.
May 17th, 2010 at 8:59 pm
Ian
May 17th, 2010 at 8:08 pm
“Harden, White and a 1st round pick for Manu?
No, the original trade was different. The most recent trade you’re referring to is because “bduran” had a problem with Krstic. I took him out of the original trade to try and accommodate his issue, but I told him that it was problematic financially. Thus, the original trade proposed was Harden, Krstic (or Collison), and White (or a 1st round pick) FOR Ginobli AND McDyess. OKC would only have to absorb about 6 mil. per year in salary, over the first two years, and they can afford it okay because they’re currently under the cap, and have no significant contracts coming up for 2 years.
“Why would they send their promising young guard and a pick just to take in an enormous contract for a player past his prime?”
First of all, they already have, without Harden, THREE promising “young” guards (Westbrook, Sefolosha, & Maynor). And in the deal they would dump about 11 million, and pick up about 17 million per year for the first two years. They would probably not pick up McDyess’ option on his third year. The reason they would do this deal is to get a jump start at winning a title. Adding Manu and McDyess would give them a solid shot at winning a title during the duration of Manu’s contract (3 years). They’re NOT going to win a title with all 22-24 year old’s, but they have a lot of young, special talent, and adding championship-tested veterans like Manu & McDyess could rather quickly put them over the hump. All they need is a couple of savvy veterans that can play; one in the back court, one in the front court, and they can compete with the elite teams in the playoffs, NOW.
And, by the way, Manu’s contract is not huge for what he brings to the table (around 13 mil. per). Granted, he’s “past his prime”, but he can still play. And OKC can handle his contract fine for three years, and it could pay off big-time in the end should they get just one title in the next three years. All GM’s, when you get down to it, want to win NOW.
May 17th, 2010 at 9:56 pm
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May 18th, 2010 at 1:05 am
TradeTP - First of all, don’t you think Tim Duncan should retire as a Spur like the other greats before him (David Robinson, George Gervin, Sean Elliott, etc.)? Don’t you think he deserves to be a Spur for his whole career (since he’s the only Spur to be around for those 4 titles)?
Second, Duncan can take on the role like Robinson did in his later years. I’m surprised that hasn’t crossed your mind. Did you say the same things about Robinson when he was getting older? Hmmmmm???
Third, I realize Duncan has been declining and hasn’t been had good interior d as he used to but do you really think it’s all his fault? HE WAS OUR ONLY SHOT BLOCKING THREAT!!!!! Don’t you think it would have been better if … uh I don’t know…. HAD ANOTHER 6’11″-7′ PF/C on the team to ease the pressure off of Tim? This is why getting Splitter (or somebody else if he can’t join) is important this season.
I guarantee you if you even mentioned trading TD in a crowd of Spurs fans, 99% of them would think “Who the hell is this guy?” or “What has this guy been smoking?”
How about coming up with something that is more realistic? Because otherwise, you’re wasting our time. Thank you.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:15 am
And you can throw all the stats and rude comments all you want, but it still won’t change the fact that Duncan is the main reason why we can enjoy those championships and WILL RETIRE AS A SPUR!!!
May 18th, 2010 at 1:16 am
Correction: Duncan is one of the main reasons why we can enjoy those championships (others helped, of course).
May 18th, 2010 at 3:58 am
“That is about 45 MILLION dollars/year of flexibility.”
I believe that’s closer to 35 million
I’m not 100% sure about these salaries but isn’t
Duncan due about $20 Million
Manu due about $13 Million
Tony due $13 Million
Didn’t I actually round down there Jim?
Don’t forget about RJ’s $15 Million
And I’m not at all saying we should try to buy a championship caliber team. I’m saying that cap space is a huge plus when trying to rebuild a team. RC has the option to take on large contracts (expiring or otherwise) when trying to wrangle up some young talent.
could not absorb the 8 million dollar difference in their salaries. Too bad, because I would love that deal.
I was actually trying to give an example of what type of trade I was referring to in my previous posts. I wasn’t saying that this perticular trade is feasible.
But since you brought up the nuts and bolts of the trade. Does Houston have any overpriced players they would be looking to move to even up the salaries?
May 18th, 2010 at 4:26 am
Jim,
Points taken, but there’s no way the Thunder take that deal. And I don’t know if you noticed but Manu played amazing WITHOUT Tony because he had the ball. When Tony came back, he slumped a little bit because he didn’t dominate the ball.
May 18th, 2010 at 5:54 am
@TradeTP
Even in one of TD’s worst years, he was still better than 95% of the bigs in the NBA - please, I beg you, find some statistics that show TD is a below average big man. I’ve honestly tried to find some, but haven’t been able to. That fact alone is reason enough not to trade him.
And after all, how many teams, after trading a superstar (even an aging one), have been better off? I can’t think of any off the top of my head. KG, Gasol, and Iverson are the first that come to mind. They’re former teams aren’t exactly lighting it up.
It’s just a bad move from every angle - basketball (we get worse as a team), business (the worse the team is, the less $ you make), and PR (San Antonio might riot). When you look at any potential deal in the big picture, short of Dwight Howard or Chris Bosh (and I’m not even sold on Bosh), we’d be taking a step back. A TD trade doesn’t move the franchise forward in any way.
May 18th, 2010 at 7:55 am
I just gave you a list of HIS LOWEST %s in playoff history and your comment is, trading him doesnt make us better?
Great job. Thats why 40 year old McDyess looked great in the playoffs too!!!
HE WILL CONTINUE TO GET WORSE AND MAKE THE MOST ON OUR TEAM. How exactly does that help us?
Your blind due to your infatuation with Tim. Similarly the PoP fever has a majority of the Spurs “fans.” No one is untouchable if it makes our team better.
We need to get younger and more athletic. Keeping Tim and paying some “never has been” (MCdoosh) to play beside him is retarded.
You guys think that keeping our same squad will win us rings. Guess what… it wont. Until you, and the coach figure out that:
THE GAME CHANGES AND SO DO THE PLAYERS
We will have to settle for 8-14th every year.
I called it two seasons ago when Tim started to show significant signs of wear; pop is riding his coattail. Same proved this year, trying to make him the focal with a scrub in McDyess to help. Hes not SUPERSTAR TD anymore.
If you need stats to show that and cant see it with your own eyes then you need to think really hard about commenting or giving ANY basketball analysis.
May 18th, 2010 at 9:08 am
Y’all do realize if we trade too many pieces, it will end up just like this year. The team will need to gel. I agree we need improvements, but we can’t BLOW UP the team. We don’t wanna be like Mavs fans who are saying to blow up their team. Haha.
Enough of this trading Duncan nonsense! I’ve already said what I’ve needed to say about that. (if you need to read what I’ve said, scroll up)
As for the offseason, I think the players who definitely should pack their bags are Mason Jr., Bogans, and Jefferson. I’m opened to letting go Bonner or McDyess as well but not as big as those other three. I would love to see us get Raja Bell or Shane Battier so that one of those two can take on Bowen’s role, obviously. Again, we need to bring over Splitter and if not, we need to start looking for a young, athletic big right away. And for the draft, I look forward to seeing what the Spurs do with the pick. Hopefully, they’ll pick a good enough SF.
May 18th, 2010 at 11:29 am
ChrisG
May 18th, 2010 at 3:58 am
“I’m not 100% sure about these salaries but isn’t
Duncan due about $20 Million
Manu due about $13 Million
Tony due $13 Million”
Yeah, I didn’t realize you were including TP.
“Does Houston have any overpriced players they would be looking to move to even up the salaries?”
Not for RJ.
Araz
May 18th, 2010 at 4:26 am
“Points taken, but there’s no way the Thunder take that deal. And I don’t know if you noticed but Manu played amazing WITHOUT Tony because he had the ball. When Tony came back, he slumped a little bit because he didn’t dominate the ball.”
You really don’t see how the Thunder would benefit from that deal? Let’s not forget, there’s no guarantee Harden’s going to be all that great. The Thunder KNOW what Manu is going to give them, NOW. And what he could get them is a title, NEXT year.
Also, of course Manu’s numbers might be up a bit without TP’s scoring in the game. That doesn’t mean Manu is a better player when TP is out of the game, he just does things differently, and the production numbers are more distributed. Also, I wouldn’t put too much stock in Manu’s relatively brief run at the end of last season, and believe that pace of productivity is sustainable. He was in a contract year, and was just due for a good run there. Don’t read more into it than it was.
You make this definitive assertion:
“….there’s no way the Thunder take that deal.”
….But you give NO sensible reason for why you maintain this belief. WHY would the Thunder not do this deal?
May 18th, 2010 at 11:56 am
@TradeTP
You just listed a bunch of TD’s stats. That does nothing to disprove my argument - TD is still one of the best low post players in the game.
Here’s why: Stats should be viewed on a RELATIVE BASIS. It’s not about how many points, rebounds or blocks TD puts up. It’s about how those #’s compare to the rest of the players at his positions (PF and C). That’s why you just can’t look at a simple box score and say blindly that player X played well because he put up this many points, this many assists, this many rebounds, etc. And this year, even in TD’s worst year, he still put up #’s that were better than 95% of the PF and C’s in the league! Again, you’ve presented zero data saying Tim Duncan is a below average player (or even average for that matter) compared to the rest of the league.
I’m not arguing he’s slowing down. I’m arging that even a subpar TD (relative to his previous years) is still one of the best at his position. We can disagree about what TD would bring back in a trade, but there is no argument when it comes to TD still being a high quality player at his position, which is the argument you tried to make and failed to support.
And even though he’s getting paid near-max money, it’s only for the next two seasons. Sure, he might continue to slow down, but I can’t forsee him becoming anything less than a borderline All-Star with enough rest.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:31 pm
Ya know Pop made a great point about championships. What the Spurs have done in the 2000′s is extremely difficult to do.
The Lakers had seven years between 2002 and 2009 championships. I can’t even remember how many years before the 2000 championship.
Championship teams aren’t easy to put together. Just ask the Suns about that. (ZERO championships in their history)
I an not at all sayin that we as fans should lower our expectations but we should just keep a level head.
Duncan is the greatest Spur ever. Period. And now that he is slowing down we should just toss him off the train? Wow. When TD was in his prime there was never any serious concern about him resigning as a Spur. Where the hell is our loyalty?
I am curious if he will retire in two years. If not, he will obviously get a huge pay cut.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:32 pm
If TD is that great, then why couldnt we ride him to beat the Suns? Didnt Lamar Odom just have a career night? Yes ODOM.
2years for TD near max = 2 years no ring
And yes, I did list a bunch of stats because you said what you have read (stats) didnt agree with my original point. I agree that stats are overrated and since you cannot separate your doting on TD with his actual performance I have to give you something.
Tim was outplayed by Channing Frye. THE END
May 18th, 2010 at 1:37 pm
Lakers went from 1988 to 2000 without a championship.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:44 pm
The Spurs of the 2000′s achieved more than Bird’s Celtics of the 1980′s.
May 18th, 2010 at 1:53 pm
Only Russell, Jordan & Magic led their teams to more championships than Duncan.
May 18th, 2010 at 2:06 pm
@TradeTP
We couldn’t ride Tim to victory because the Suns, as a team, were better than the Spurs this year. Not to say TD played well at all, but neither did anyone else.
I think it’s disingenuous to pin the Spurs loss to the Suns solely on the back of TD.
May 18th, 2010 at 2:11 pm
@ChrisG
Agreed. We’re spoiled as Spurs fans. Not too say we shouldn’t want or expect more rings, but at the very least we should take a step back and recognize that the organization we all root for has done some things very few franchises will ever do.
Having said that, I’m ready for the 2010-11 season to start already. It can’t come soon enough.
May 18th, 2010 at 2:37 pm
Jim,
I’m speaking based on the idea of the way the Thunder have come to power. I think your right about GM’s wanting to win NOW, but in the Thunder’s case things are different. Their chemistry that is building from such a young aged team is something amazing, and Harden as the 4th most important piece of that puzzle. Yes, it is not for sure how good Harden will be, but what is for sure is that Manu is on the backside of the hill and Harden hasn’t even gotten to the slope of his hill. Manu will not be able to give them much more than Harden is right now (aside from character and leadership- which Durant and Russle are developing). If they went through with the deal their shooting guard of the future will be gone, and they will only be a lock in that position for the next two years instead of the next ten.
May 18th, 2010 at 4:53 pm
Araz
May 18th, 2010 at 2:37 pm
“Their chemistry that is building from such a young aged team is something amazing, and Harden as the 4th most important piece of that puzzle.”
Actually, I would rate Ibaka & Thabo ahead of Harden in terms of importance to that team at this time. So Harden would be the 6th most important piece. Manu would be their 3rd, for sure. Harden “could” move up the list, but simply don’t know yet.
“Manu will not be able to give them much more than Harden is right now (aside from character and leadership- which Durant and Russle are developing).”
Manu has a much more balanced, all-around game than Harden, and that is likely to continue for at least a few years. In addition, the leadership and experience Manu would be worth its weight in gold to a young Thunder team. As I said, the Thunder are imbalanced on the side of youth. They have another very talented guard, Maynor, that needs some playing time. They can afford to let Harden go for a guy like Manu. It’s not like Manu’s on his death-bed yet. Come on. He would give that team a very “real” chance at a title in the next two years, particularly if Ibaka develops as expected. Really, I have no idea why you can’t see this.
“If they went through with the deal their shooting guard of the future will be gone, and they will only be a lock in that position for the next two years instead of the next ten.”
It would be a lock at that position for three years, not two. Plus, you’re short-changing Sefolosha. They don’t need a big scorer/shooter out of that SG position (Durant, Green, Westbrook, Ibaka are their scorers of the future), and Thabo is “big” for his position, and plays excellent “D”. Manu gives them a slasher at the SG position, a play maker, and a leader. They’ve got three years to find a role player to enter the rotation with Westbrook, Thabo, & Maynor when Manu leaves. Its perfect, I must say.
May 18th, 2010 at 6:31 pm
There’s really no point in arguing with you, because you’re always right. You’re only looking at this from your point of view, which is fine, but it really doesn’t matter because this trade isn’t gonna happen. Both teams are attatched to the players being traded in different ways… the Thunder in the process of becoming great for a loonnnggg time (because of their youth and chemistry) … and the Spurs nation love for their Argentinian superstar. I was trying to point out the semi-one-sidedness of the deal to you, but obviously there’s no sense to what I’m saying.
May 18th, 2010 at 8:15 pm
Araz
May 18th, 2010 at 6:31 pm
I’m just making what I think is a strong case for a deal with OKC. I think it helps both sides. For one side it helps more short term, for the other side it helps more long-term, and it doesn’t hurt either side too much long or short term. Apparently you think that the deal is one-sided in favor of the Spurs. As I’m sure you’re aware, there are actually more comments on this site that think the deal is one-sided in favor of OKC. That right there should tell you that the deal has potential for both teams. Maybe you’re right in saying that the deal will never happen. All I can say is that, in my view, the GM’s from both of these teams would be making a mistake to not seriously consider a trade of this nature if they each have BOTH the short & long term interests of their respective franchise’s in mind.
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