Richard Jefferson and San Antonio Spurs: It was just a break

by

Richard Jefferson is returning to San Antonio for 2010-2011. Please control your excitement.

Most of the time, when there’s a sequel, it sucks. It’s usually a half-assed attempt to capitalize on a previous edition for cheap.

In hopefully-unrelated news, Richard Jefferson will re-sign the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday.

After a rough first season in the silver and black, in which flashes of what Spurs fans expected when the team acquired Jefferson were few and far between, Jefferson surprisingly opted out of the final year of his contract. That final year would’ve paid Jefferson $15 million.

Defending his move, Jefferson said publicly that he was looking for long-term security as opposed to a quick payday.

Many frustrated Spurs fans were initially excited at the prospect of ridding themselves of Jefferson. But hours after the news of the swingman opting out, reports were already surfacing of Jefferson’s return to the Spurs, albeit at a more cap-friendly (and some would say, more deserving) price.

And though it took longer than people were expecting, RJ is indeed returning to the silver and black. Terms of the deal haven’t been disclosed, but should be released later this week. Either way, it shouldn’t be anywhere in the neighborhood of the salary that was left on the table.

This should comes as a relief to San Antonio Spurs owner Peter Holt who won’t have to pay the difference in salary or the luxury tax payments that would go along with Jefferson’s abandoned $15 million, which had San Antonio far and away over the salary cap.

Defenders of Jefferson’s have been beating the drum that players are more comfortable in their second season in Gregg Popovich’s system. And of all the things Jefferson was this past season, comfortable was not one of them. Luckily for Spurs fans, Jefferson has reportedly spend the summer in San Antonio working with Coach Pop on the finer points of the system, adapting his game to fit the team’s.

In the end, after the Spurs were able to at long last bring Tiago Splitter over from Spain, and after re-signing the sandwich hunter, there were few free agent small forwards left on the market that the Spurs could afford. And with the Spurs holding Jefferson’s bird rights, it was tough to find a better option for the Spurs than RJ.

Former Ticket 760 radio host Peter Burns might have summed it up best on Tuesday afternoon when he tweeted that, in effect, the San Antonio Spurs “refinanced” Jefferson.

Enjoy year two of Richard Jefferson and his shoulder tattoo.

  • Jim Henderson

    Jacob
    July 21st, 2010 at 2:08 pm

    “They won’t line up against each other 1-13 respectively, 16th century british army style, and mathematically cancel each other out according to their statistical value.”

    Fine, but statistics is ALL we have at our disposal in terms of objective facts that have shown to directly bear on team performance. Why would anyone not feel obliged to use them to augment an argument? Otherwise all we have is a bunch of nobody’s (including me, of course!) spouting out “merely subject opinion”.

    “I guess what I’m really trying to say is that I have a really hard time envisioning the Rockets doing anything to the Lakers in a playoff series.”

    Fine, as long as you know that this assertion is nothing more than personal opinion. Which is all hunky-dory, and is certainly not meant to suggest that anyone’s personal opinion on here is not worth anything. Nevertheless, we have to admit that the “personal opinion” of a bunch of strangers on a blog is not equal in value as a “basketball argument” as is a personal opinion augmented by some objective data.

    “On Paper, both Dallas and the Spurs looked like western conference finals contenders last year, that didnt happen either.”

    I don’t agree with that, and I’m certainly NOT suggesting that the Rockets WILL go to the WCF’s this year, only that you can’t honestly say that they don’t have just as good of a chance as anybody else in the West outside of the defending champion Lakers.

    “BTW, on a side note, completely unrelated to hoops, I thought that I would mention to you that sometimes the way you write comes off as being sort of arrogant or condescending.”

    I would say sarcastic at times, and annoyed on occasion with some of the rather silly assertions that are made with some regularity on this blog. However, many of us from time to time on here get into a somewhat arrogant or condescending spiel on occasion. For the most part it is relatively harmless, unless it devolves into outrageous accusations and/or personal insults, which I rarely, if ever, initiate.

    This line from your previous post was certainly a bit of a “jab” on your part, don’t you think?:

    “I’ll believe it when I see it. I think the Rockets finish somewhere around 6th in the West, but I dont see how they overcome LA.

    Care to enlighten me?”

    Anyway, no offense taken, but by the same token, if you’re going to project the Rockets 6th in the West, with no reasonable chance at contending with LA, it only makes sense for you to question my player comparison of the two teams, backed up by some form of objective reasoning, otherwise you could simply say that, “you might be right”, or “I don’t want to take the time to look up the stats”, or “my personal opinion is that I just don’t think the Rockets have what it takes to really contend in the West”. Something of that nature.

    I treat the blog as “fun” as well. I just think that having “fun” and backing up our arguments with some relatively simple to acquire objective data are not mutually exclusive. And in my view, that makes for a more informative & interesting blog.

  • bduran

    “So, no, it is clear that you are in fact are underestimating the Houston Rockets.”

    You are awesome.

    I, do however, agree with a lot of what you say about the current Rockets roster. However, here’s why I think the Rockets will be around the 50 win mark.

    Brad Miller sucked last year, not an upgrade if he plays that way again. -.57 WP48, 43% FG (terrible for a center), 4.9 rbds and .4 blocks in 23.8 min. Not good. I don’t normally expect players to rebound from bad year when they are in their mid 30s. This is the age when players normally decline rapidly.

    Since 2006 Yaos WP are 11.5, 8.3, 7.3, 10.8. So if Yao returns to peak form we can expect about 11 wins produced. Not net wins added. His minutes have to come from somewhere. Last year it looks like their front court was primarily, Hayes, Landry, Scola, Anderson, and Battier. A large part of Yao’s minutes will be replacing Hayes and Landry who are solid players. So even at peak form he’s not worth 11 wins.

    Patterson is a rookie. No reason to think he’ll be worth much this year. It’s very hard to predict a rookies impact and I certainly wouldn’t count on significant impact in any kind of mid summer team analysis.

    So, they added Yao, Miller, and Patterson. Only one of these players can be reasonably expected to contribute significantly to team wins. They lost two productive players in Landry and Hayes. This does not get you to 50 wins.

    So in addition I would hope for significant improvement from Martin, although he has had two sub par years in a row now. Lowry may improve some as well. I’m not a big fan of brooks. Mostly a scorer and not a terribly efficient one. Last year they produced 40 wins, I think they added about 10 wins. We’ll see.

    Last year the Spurs produced 54 wins, and we’ve improved. So I think the Spurs will be better than the Rockets, and LA is likely to be the #1 seed again.

    ” You also didn’t care to comment on the match-up edge I give to the Rockets. I wonder why?”

    Probably because it’s a terrible way to evaluate teams. In your accounting Miller>Mbenga is equal to Odom>Patterson.

    This is where things like WP48 and WP come in very handy. Even if we correctly evaluate what players are better, how do we quantify how much? Or the impact of minutes?

  • Jim Henderson

    ThatBigGuy
    July 21st, 2010 at 2:55 pm

    Quite a discrepancy in our views. Let’s put it this way, if I had a million dollars I would bet it ALL that the Rockets make the playoffs this year. I’ll leave it at that.

    Hobson13
    July 21st, 2010 at 2:56 pm

    “In fact, I view both the Rockets and Blazers as being very similar. How many years now have people been saying “if only the Rockets were healthy, they’d be challenging for the top spot in the west.””

    Yeah, that’s why I put the Rockets & Blazers right next to each other in my rankings. The Rockets were seeded 5th in the West in 2008-2009 (when they had Yao last), just ONE GAME behind the Nuggets, Spurs, & Blazers. The fact is, the Rockets are simply better this year. They have Martin, Ariza, the rookie Patterson, and most of the rest of their key players are made up of “quality” young talent, or very good veteran players in their prime years. Plus, Miller is a clear upgrade at back-up center, and Adelman is one of the best coaches in the league.

    “My point is that neither team has proven ANYTHING in the playoffs.”

    Well if you mean a WCF appearance or better, how many teams have been fortunate enough to get there in the last 5 years? Are you going to limit your pool of “real” challengers to this ultra select group, which includes a Sun’s & Jazz team that just lost their star PF, and a Denver team that has now past their peak?

    “Here are how many games the trio of Oden, Pryz, and Camby have missed over the past two years.”

    Don’t you think the odds are with them now?

    Camby’s played in 83% of his games the past 6 seasons; Pryz – 74%. Not great, but since they have THREE pretty talented centers, not that bad. Oden’s had it rough his first few years, but he’s due for a more healthy year, unless you just happen to think that he’s Bill Walton reincarnated? Perhaps, but unlikely.

    The bottom line: I didn’t really reflect injury odds into my rankings. It’s a really difficult thing to do. I also don’t give that much weight to the good fortune of relatively recent playoff success, otherwise let’s just chuck OKC out as well, which I certainly wouldn’t do. The only issue I have with them is that they don’t have hardly any “really good, experienced veterans” on the team.

  • bduran

    “Let’s put it this way, if I had a million dollars I would bet it ALL that the Rockets make the playoffs this year.”

    I would never bet a million dollars on Yao’s health.

  • VENENO

    THATS GREAT WE START HIM AND BRING IN ALONZO GEE.GREAT COMBO

  • Jim Henderson

    bduran
    July 21st, 2010 at 4:32 pm

    “I would never bet a million dollars on Yao’s health.”

    But I’m not betting it on Yao’s health. This year, the Rockets are so talented & deep at every position that they WILL make the playoffs even IF Yao goes down at some point during the season.

  • Hobson13

    “Well if you mean a WCF appearance or better, how many teams have been fortunate enough to get there in the last 5 years? Are you going to limit your pool of “real” challengers to this ultra select group, which includes a Sun’s & Jazz team that just lost their star PF, and a Denver team that has now past their peak?”

    Jim, these teams have a combined 1 playoff series win in the last 8 years! I would like to see one of these teams at least make the playoffs on a consistent basis. Getting past the first round a couple of times over this period of time would be nice. We can talk about all the “potential” we want. The only thing that means a damn is what a team does in the playoffs and neither team has done much for virtually a decade.

  • Hobson13

    Check out this link: http://blogs.mysanantonio.com/weblogs/courtside/2010/07/its-four-more-y.html

    Apparently Jefferson signed a 4 year deal worth up to $38.9 mil. Here is how they have it broken down:

    Year 1: $8.4 Mil
    Year 2: $9.2 Mil
    Year 3: $10.16 Mil
    Year 4: $11.046 Mil (partially guaranteed)

    This was higher than what I thought we would give him. It will take Jefferson almost two years to make what he would have hauled in this year, but overall, I’m a bit mixed on my feelings about this deal. I would like to know what all is guaranteed for the 4th year. Thoughts?

  • Jim Henderson

    bduran
    July 21st, 2010 at 3:51 pm

    I won’t bother going into much depth with this post. I’d first like to ask to to address a few important items that you failed to account for in your previous post.

    “A large part of Yao’s minutes will be replacing Hayes and Landry who are solid players.”

    (1) That’s fine, they about offset. But then you don’t fully take into account for the addition of Martin. His wins produced, based on a pro-rated full season (70+ games) average about 10 wins produced on average over the past 5 years. His added minutes this year will likely come from the aging Battier, as Ariza will assume more of his natural position at the three spot. Battier only produced about 2 wins last year. That’s a net 8 right there.

    (2) You also don’t take into account that Yao is one of those centers that makes his teammates better. Thus, other players are likely to have slightly more efficient production as a result. I would add about 2.5 wins by this factor alone.

    (3) You also don’t factor in the likely improvement in wins produced from their young players, particularly a promising player going from his rookie to second year: in this case, Budinger. For example, G.Hill’s WP in 2010 increased by 355% from what it was in his rookie season of 2009. In Hill’s case, a good part of it was on account of his 78% increase in minutes played, so we could adjust his rookie-sophomore portion of the gain down to about 75%. In Budinger’s case, his minutes “might” get reduced a relatively small amount to also help account for Martin – lets say 5 mpg. less, which would be about a 25% reduction in minutes. But also give him the reasonable 75% rookie-sophomore gain, and his WP still increases by about another 2.5 wins.

    (4) And if you’re going to “get rid of” both Landry & Hayes (49 minutes), when Yao averages about 33 mpg., you have to give the extra 16 minutes to other front court players, particularly NEW ones like Brad Miller. I think you can throw out last year as an anomaly for Miller. He just turned 34 (TD’s age), has no major injuries, and plays the type of game where a lot of wear & tear on his body has not been as big of a factor during his career (his game doesn’t rely on quickness or explosiveness). Plus he feels comfortable playing in an Adelman run system. His average wins produced the 4 years prior was about 6.5, averaging about 29 mpg. So I would estimate about 3 wins added here.

    These types of adjustments are reasonable, and could realistically raise the Rocket win total from 42 to 58 wins. Obviously this is all based on the Rockets being healthy much of the year.

  • Jim Henderson

    Hobson13
    July 21st, 2010 at 5:34 pm

    “Jim, these teams have a combined 1 playoff series win in the last 8 years!”

    The point is, only the Mavs have (besides LA & us), other than the declining Suns, Nuggets, & Jazz.

    That leaves LA, the Spurs, & the Mavs. Are we going to throw everybody else out of the top half of the draw because of recent playoff success, or lack thereof? Are we going to throw OKC out because not only have they not won a playoff series in the last 8 years, they’ve only been in one! Also, it’s not like the Spurs have a stellar playoff record in the past three years: a 2nd, & two 1st round exits. And WE have an AGING CORE, and a number of, for the most part, UNPROVEN young players that as a whole are probably less talented then are the Rocket players age 26 and under. And we know the Mavs can be flaky, and their off-season hasn’t been to great yet either.

    Look, I’m not disagreeing that the West, below the Lakers, is pretty much wide open, but the West is not weakening overall as some would suggest. We’re still haven’t improved our position that much. And I do give some credit for teams that have playoff experience, but there’s only so much you can give credit to there. OKC’s a perfect example: took LA to six “tough” games in their 1st playoff experience as a franchise in I don’t know how long. It comes down to who has the talent, desire, chemistry, coaching to win at a high level. I think the Rockets are right there. Sure, injuries are perhaps more of a wild card with them than for some teams, but even Yao, before last year, had played in 84% of his teams games.

    Finally, my rankings makes it apparent that I think the Spurs need to do more to get closer to LA. We need to get an experienced veteran shooter to back up RJ, and a energy/defender guy to chip in on the interior. If we could land Kapono & Amundson (or something similar), I’d be more inclined to give us a better shot at the #2 seed. Without those kinds of additions, everything would have to go perfect for us to get into the top tier, in my view.

  • Jim Henderson

    Hobson13
    July 21st, 2010 at 6:11 pm

    The partial guarantee in year four is fine, but the salaries for years one, two, and three are too high. He better have a more productive next few years than he did in his first at that price. That said, it’s an inflated market this year. That’s why RJ opted out before the new CBA. And right now, were stuck with a lack-luster option at SF, and did not have the resources to sign anyone better. I assume the trade options were looked into and were not too appealing. Who knows! In the end it looks like we did in fact NEED each other. We had his bird rights, so we could offer RJ the best deal as well (barring a trade). Let’s hope the dependence doesn’t end up backfiring for the Spurs. GO RJ!!!!!

  • B Burke

    Jim,

    Do you watch basketball games?

    -B

    PS W/r/t RJ – I was a big booster, and later an apologist last season, so it’s fair to take my opinion with a grain of salt. Like others have said, the problem wasn’t that he averaged “only” 12 ppg, but that his scoring was _so_ inconsistent and that he barely contributed at all on nights that he didn’t contribute points. If he can eliminate those nothing games, or if Pop can learn him some defensive consistency, we’re set. But he wants to play for us, we’ve got a spot for him, so let him play. The Spurs could not and will not find a better all-around FA to plug in at the 3 this offseason. We don’t need much out of him, and I know he’s capable of not giving us much. Honest, though, good luck to RJ this season.

  • B Burke

    Also I’d like to hear about the Spurs’ secret 1st rd. exit.

  • bduran

    Jim,

    Allright, looking at WP48 here’s what I came up with. I used your lineup above and the numbers are minutes, wp48, wp. I used Kevin Martins and Yaos best years. Miller I gave a zero, I don’t think a drop at 34 is a fluke. I gave Budinger the same wp48 as Martin. I gave Patterson the rookies average.

    Yao 32 .215 11.7
    Miller 0 0 0
    Scola 33 .150 8.46
    Patterson 15 .050 1.28
    Ariza 36 .081 4.98
    Battier 12 .050 1.03
    Brooks 36 .049 3.01
    Lowry 12 .191 3.92

    Total 50.12

    So I stand by what I said about your roster. Sure some things could go better like Scola could be better and Lowry could take some minutes from Brooks. Still I also built in some things like giving Yao and Martin their best season numbers and matching Budinger’s WP48 to Martin’s. So this seems like a reasonable projection. Obviously things could go better or worse.

    However, after looking at the roster I see the name Jordan Hill. Turns out he was very solid in 13 minutes a game last year. So now I’m going to present a Rockets best case scenario.

    If we give Scola numbers from 2009 when he played with Yao, switch Brooks and Lowry’s minutes and replace Miller’s with Jordan Hill the win total becomes 63.7. Of course this won’t happen. Miller going to get some minutes and Brooks is going to get more than Lowry. Still, it means if they play the right players the right minutes and Yao stays healthy they could be very good. The fewer minutes Miller and Brooks get the better this team will be.

    BTW, a best case scenario for the Spurs leads to a similar win total. I’m not going to bet on it for either team though.

  • Will

    Good job by RC.
    From my calcs ownership saves $15m total; $7m RJ, $5m luxury tax, $3m cheque for being under luxury tax line.
    According to nba.com 4th year is player option. Not sure about this partial guarantee business.

  • Firebrand

    @ JimHenderson
    “Can you please take a closer look at Houston. As with us, if healthy, they are a very deep & talented team.Where are you putting finalist Boston, and semi-finalist Orlando? And again, Houston, where are they?” JimHenderson

    me earlier: “I remember the magic are still a force to be reckoned with and of course the team I think of as the east cost Spurs the Celtics I think either one of these two could be top in the east . ” I was not really clear here but I was saying I could not decide between orlando or boston as the top pick in the east and the other would be my two pick.

    Houston hmmmm idk call me old fashioned I have no faith in them they let me down on a yearly basis and while they do have some nice pieces I am just not convinced I expect them to be in the playoff hunt but not really a threat when the playoffs begin.

    @ the who DR.
    I will admit I am a Spurs fan and overly biased toward them (the reason why I never ever bet on a Spurs game). First I must say I was being lazy and totally forgot about the Thunder and the fact that we cant stop KD. In your expertly written column(no sarcasm it was very well written good research too) you then go on to say the Mavs are practically the same team (what I stated). That the lakers were the same but with a good backup pg behind fisher (what I stated). I did not go into Denvers problems like the fact that they will start the season without Birdman or Kenyon Martin the only guys that play D on that team.Not to mention unless Melo signs an extension they will have his looming free agency distracting the team all year I love the nuggs but losing there two big guys to start the season is going to hurt them. You on the other hand do not mention this at all.

    The Suns *sigh* they were over hyped last year and before anyone says anything I know they swept us I remember. I will also point out the obvious with the loss of Amare they lose size and athleticism as well as a finisher for all thos sick alley oops that nashty makes possible. Hedo is a good fit for the team and I expect his numbers to go back up closer to his orlando days. But and this is important this team is going to be a liability on defense as it always has been no way they can challenge the Lakers no way .

    The trailblazers. how many playoff series has this team won in the last decade . Is there a single player on this team with more than 10 playoff wins. In all honest i am kinda bad at keeping up with the blazers. I put them in the same place in my mind as the Rockets and Jazz which is to say they have years where they look really good on paper and can have success in the regular season and generally have well coached teams in terms of defense but for all that what has it gotten them. They are missing something a player that can truly close games maybe like Timmy when he was young or KD now a days.

    The Jazz . Same story as rockets and blazers they just don’t do it for me. They need AK-47 to once again be the player we all thought might one day notch a quad dub. Williams is an excellent pg and with Al Jefferson Replacing boozer I dont see a significant drop in talent there but they will need time to become acclimated to one another . They lost kyle korver who was a good threat for them with the long ball. It seems like a step back from last year or at the very least lateral movement.

    To sum it up I am just a fan and these are very pedestrian observations. Part of the reason why I asked “Am I wrong to automatically assume that the Lakers and only the Lakers are a serious threat out west ” Was to get a reply from other fans . What I was aiming for and should have said is Does any team in the West ,other than the Lakers, have the ability to beat a MIami,Orlando, or boston team in the east ? I will also defend my every team in the west is weaker foolishness by saying this, with all the moves that the powers in the east made if you did not do something to get better then by virtue of the other teams getting stronger you have now become weaker :) . Yeah thats it ……………

  • JSam
  • doggydogworld

    The Spurs addressed a lack of depth at shooting guard by signing Gary Neal to a 3 year guaranteed contract. SGs now comprise half our roster.

  • Firebrand

    @JimHenderson

    “Also, it’s not like the Spurs have a stellar playoff record in the past three years: a 2nd, & two 1st round exits. And WE have an AGING CORE, and a number of, for the most part, UNPROVEN young players that as a whole are probably less talented then are the Rocket players age 26 and under. ”

    Minor correction 3 years ago 07-08 we got bounced by the lakers in the western finals 08-09 we got dropped first round by mavs 09-10 we lost to phoenix in round 2.

    Aging core only Tim and Manu are over thirty out of our “core” . We got Tony under 30 and RJ and bonner at 30 and I think we can all agree that while RJ may become part of our core Matty B is no more than a long tenured role player . We are all about youth now with dejaun, hill, and splitter, 3 young talents that I would not trade away but for a high price. The average age of our team is around 27 . Our three oldest players are timmy at 34 manu at 32 and Mcdyess at 35 . In all honesty I think we are doing pretty ok for a team in rebuilding mode…. what else can you call this what team has the luxury of being in the thick of competition when there roster has been turned around as much as ours the past couple of years.

  • lvmainman

    Wait, the Spurs lowball Splitter and overpay for Jefferson starting at $8.4 million?

    What the ….? Watch Jefferson’s contract be the reason Parker demands a max contract from the Spurs.

    What a lousy signing by the Spurs.

  • Phoebus

    This thread would be aaaawesome if it contained less mindless speculation about the 2010-11 Rockets and more details about what we know about RJ’s contract terms.

    Y’know, since that’s what the post was about.

    Is what Hobson mentioned official? Is it good?

  • Hobson13

    doggydogworld
    July 21st, 2010 at 8:40 pm
    “The Spurs addressed a lack of depth at shooting guard by signing Gary Neal to a 3 year guaranteed contract. SGs now comprise half our roster.”

    WTF!?! The Spurs have 3 other players who can hold down the 2 position. Manu, Anderson, and Hill. So this Neal cat comes in and goes 6/10 in one SL game and we sign him to a 3 year deal? I’ve learned better than to question the FO on their decisions and I won’t start now, but this is sure out of the blue (as usual for the Spurs).

    I will say that Draft Express has him ranked as the 4th best overseas Free Agent. To me, this seems like another Haislip experiment. Bring a Euro player over cheap and if he doesn’t work out, no big deal. I suppose the FO is looking for a low financial risk, high reward kind of player.

    Here is a link to some info on him.
    http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Gary-Neal-544/

  • Phoebus

    lvmainman:

    proven ability to at least tread water (despite hype) in the NBA matters a LOT in negotiations. Splitter’s agent knew that. So did RJ’s.

    Just look at Darko.

  • doggydogworld

    It wasn’t just that one game, he’s one of the best natural shooters I’ve ever watched. This was obvious to me after watching the first game against the Timberwolves. Whether he can do the other stuff and keep his head straight remains to be seen.

    I don’t know how we’re going to give minutes to all 7 SGs, though. Hill and Temple will play some PG while Hairston, Gee and Anderson will play some SF, but it’s still a logjam.

  • Hobson13

    Phoebus
    July 21st, 2010 at 9:05 pm

    “Is what Hobson mentioned official? Is it good?”

    Here’s the link. Decide for yourself.

    http://blogs.mysanantonio.com/weblogs/courtside/2010/07/its-four-more-y.html#comments

    Although I haven’t seen ESPN or Yahoo confirm or deny this report. I hope that its false and the Spurs signed him for less, but I’m afraid it may be true.

  • Sam

    @ Jim
    ” Also, it’s not like the Spurs have a stellar playoff record in the past three years: a 2nd, & two 1st round exits. ”
    in 2008 we went to the conference finals. In 2009 we had a first round exit. in 2010 we went to the semifinals. Thats a 3rd, a first, and a second round exit.
    @Bduran
    “Last year the Spurs produced 54 wins, and we’ve improved. ”
    we were 50-32

  • Jim Henderson

    Dr. Who
    July 21st, 2010 at 3:12 pm

    I enjoyed your “War and Peace” evaluation of the projected playoff seeds in the West.

    Just a few comments on your team evaluations.

    I agree with your “sleepers”, the Clippers & Grizzlies. I called them “dark horses” in my post that gave “my WC rankings”, previously on this thread. I also included the Kings, and the Amare-less Suns in this group.

    Unfortunately, despite coach Karl’s return to the sidelines, he’s not out of the woods yet with his health. As you might know, cancer can often reappear rather quickly. It’s a notoriously systemic, nasty, and insidious disease. I certainly wish the best for him, but this uncertainty puts the Nuggets at considerable risk again, in my view. Karl is just that important to their fate. In addition, for the most part, Denver has now peaked as a team. Their main players aren’t going to be improving. In other words, they are what they are (4th in the West last year). I’m not too high on the Harrington addition, and K-Mart’s knee situation and age is a huge issue. He’s clearly THE interior defender that the Nuggets must have healthy (along with a suspension of age!) if the Nuggets are going to get into top-tier in the West. I say odds are, the Nuggets end up the same or “slightly” weaker this year.

    I agree on OKC. They still have a bunch of young guns, and so I see them getting a bit better. What holds them back from making a bigger move, in my view, is the fact that they have not added any “really good veteran player” to the mix. There’s no substitute for good old fashioned savvy veteran leadership when it counts the most.

    Fine points on the Blazers. My disagreement comes with your sarcasm on the Matthews deal (although it was humorous!), and your emphasis on the Pritchard situation. While the Blazers very probably overpaid for Mathews, he is an excellent addition to that team. This guy can play “D” on the perimeter, and nail the three. Plus, from what I understand, he’s ghas a tremendous work ethic, and is a solid character guy. He gives the Blazers the athleticism & toughness in their 4-guard rotation with Roy, Miller, & Bayless. The Pritchard deal was classless & embarrassing, but really, we don’t know all the “true details” of the inside story there. It’s not pretty any way you look at it, but it’s way too early for me to conclude that this is the beginning of a karma-struck trend for the Blazers. At least Allen has made a positive step to redeem the franchise with the hiring of Rich Cho, now “former” assistant GM of the Thunder:

    “In Cho, owner Paul Allen may have rebounded from the dysfunction surrounding Pritchard’s departure because he hired a classy, unassuming workaholic who will make well-reasoned decisions.”

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/jerrybrewer/2012398675_brewer20.html

    No excuse for the Prichard fiasco, but a good first step nonetheless.

    I pretty much agree with your assessment of the Mavs, yet I see them as only slightly better next season at this point. It hinges on whether Chandler can rebound from a series of injuries, and lack-luster production (and STAY healthy), and also on the extent that Beaubois can emerge to give them a spark on the offensive end. Otherwise the core group is aging, and this team has for years always seemed to pick the wrong moment to falter.

    Pretty much in agreement again on the Rockets, although you appear to de-emphasize the youth AND talent that they have at key positions. Brooks, for example, has his issues, but he provides one of the toughest & key mismatches for the top teams around the league because he’s lighting quick AND has tremendous range on his three (and 25 years old, heading into his prime). Also, Budinger, Lowery, & Ariza are all very talented, and at age 24 and under, still have considerable upside. Yao, of course, is the key, but you give the impression that going through the year fairly healthy, particularly at the end of the season, is a bigger risk than I would give it. After all, Yao has played in 84% of his games during his 7 seasons prior to last year. He’s FAR from Bill Walton.

    We’re in a bit of disagreement about the Jazz. I don’t see AJ replacing Boozer seamlessly during the 1st season. D-Will & Boozer had that pick & roll down pat, and as with Amare & Nash, that won’t be easily replaced. I like Bell, but at age 33, he doesn’t make up for the loss of both Korver (53% from three), and the young, budding stud in Matthews. Hayward is a nice player, but I don’t see him adding more to their team than Patterson, Babbitt, or Anderson, for the Rockets, Blazers, and Spurs, respectively. Sloan will keep the Jazz tough. They should make the playoffs, but I see the Jazz dropping “slightly” (instead of 5th, battling for the final seeds).

    On the Spurs, of course, I’ve made my views fairly prominent. I do think that we’ve improved so far, but probably not far enough yet to get into the top tier. EVERYTHING would have to go exceedingly well for us to make a significant move (e.g. WCF appearance). We’re still lacking a veteran, experienced “clutch” three-point shooter, and our “D” has not improved enough through our additions to get us up into the top three to five in defensive rating, which is where the Spurs NEED to get to truly challenge.

  • dcatkd

    Assuming Gary Neal’s contract isn’t huge, I think this is a good move. He’s got some experience against professionals, and during his summer league play he not only shot lights out, but he had very few mistakes, made the right rotations, made few fouls, and had few turnovers. If nothing more, he can come in and hit the 3… which is a need that’s been on this board all off-season. If his defense is as good as it was in the summer league games (obviously that’s a big IF considering the caliber of talent) he’s a decent addition. Even though Gee fits our 3/sf need, I think Neal is strides better now and looks much more NBA ready… in my opinion of course, and from what I saw in all of the summer league games from him.

  • Hobson13

    doggydogworld
    July 21st, 2010 at 9:15 pm
    “I don’t know how we’re going to give minutes to all 7 SGs, though. Hill and Temple will play some PG while Hairston, Gee and Anderson will play some SF, but it’s still a logjam.”

    You got me on this one. I would have to assume that Gee is virtually out of the question at this point. Hairston playing behind RJ seems like a done deal or the Spurs FO wouldn’t have told him not to play in the SL. Hill, Anderson, and Manu are guaranteed and I still believe Temple did enough last year to get him a spot behind Parker and Hill. This would leave Gee as the odd man out don’t you think?

    “It wasn’t just that one game, he’s one of the best natural shooters I’ve ever watched.”

    I believe you, but his percentages sure weren’t that impressive. Perhaps Pop is looking for an Anthony Morrow kind of player; a young, cheap guy who was overlooked by other teams.

  • Phoebus

    @Hobson

    Thanks. I didn’t mean that I questioned you- just whether mysanantonio is a real journalistic establishment. is it the internet arm of the express-news?

    and yeah, i think almost everyone would agree that those numbers are about 2 mil higher than what we would have wanted, but at the end of the day, we don’t sign the checks, we’re just the peanut gallery echo chamber.

    I care more about how good the Spurs are gonna be next year than what Holt does with his money. Last year it was a salient issue because the Spurs spent a lot, in a not-Spurs way, which got everyone interested.

    This year? RJ took a pay cut. A huge one, even by NBA standards. The difference between RJ getting 6 and 8.4 mil a year is a question for Holt to ask himself in his living room.

    For us, it’s splittering hairstons.

    sorry.

  • Phoebus

    I don’t get it. If the end of the SG bench is Gee, Temple, and Neal, and they’re all signed for super freaking cheap, don’t you allow for the competition to bring the best one forward?

    How is that a ‘logjam’?

  • doggydogworld

    I think Neal was signed with the MLE. Hopefully not the entire 2.35m remaining, but it’s probably enough to render the MLE useless going forward. Still have the LLE. I also think we’re back into the luxury tax unless we cut two of the Hairston/Gee/Temple/Jerrells gang or convince Anderson to play overseas.

  • Hobson13

    doggydogworld
    July 21st, 2010 at 9:47 pm
    “I think Neal was signed with the MLE.”

    Geez, I hope not. I hope we used the LLE on him. However, someone with extensive cap knowledge refresh my memory. Can’t you only sign a player for one year with the LLE? If thats the case, then we must have used the remainder of the MLE on him.

    Here is an interesting article on Gary Neal. I got this from http://blog.shamsports.com/2010/07/2010-summer-league-rosters-san-antonio.html

    Here it is:

    “Former La Salle and Towson guard Gary Neal is a surprising inclusion on this list, mainly because it’s his first time on such a thing. The 26 year old guard has long had NBA talent, yet this is his first attempt at the NBA in any form. Neal has been playing at the upper echelons of European basketball, spending a year and a half at Benetton Treviso and moving to Euroleague team Unicaja Malaga for the stretch run. (There was a reason for his departure from Benetton, however, one which involves former Pistons guard Alex Acker.) The 6’4 guard is a scoring machine, and led SerieA in points per game last season (19.4) whilst also ranking second in the Eurocup (19.3). He can shoot, drive and create off the bounce, and also chips in with some athleticism and rebounding. But he won’t defend.

    Gary Neal fact: Gary Neal was kicked out of La Salle for violating the school’s “morality rules”. Neal and a team mate were “running a train” (not a quote) on a girl who was puking in the sink at a party; the woman later accused them of rape. The two were acquitted, but were kicked out of school; the school believed that what was heard in the court testimony was against their every principle. On the plus side, this gave Neal the opportunity to become only the third player in NCAA history to score at least 1000 points at two different schools. The others were Kenny Battle and Jon Manning.”

    Should we begin calling him the “Choo Choo?”

  • doggydogworld

    @Hobson, my guess is Neal’s percentages are low because he’s been the #1 scorer who attracts a lot of defensive attention. Kobe is a great shooter but his 33% from the arc and 45% overall doesn’t really stand out.

    @Phoebus, it’s a logjam because young players need minutes to develop. I suppose Gee and Temple will get minutes in Austin. Maybe even Anderson?

    Man, those guys are going to be killing each other in training camp.

  • Jim Henderson

    bduran
    July 21st, 2010 at 7:44 pm

    “Miller I gave a zero, I don’t think a drop at 34 is a fluke.”

    Well, you can think that all you want, but it’s not rational. At age 33 in 2008-2009 he had a combined WP of 5.54, having to play with two teams that year no less, and one year later you want to have him a drop to zero because he had an off year with an in-transition Bull team. That’s absurd! Duncan’s now 34, and has a chronic knee injury. Let’s drop his WP from 15.6 to 5 for this coming year. Sound good to you?!

    Also, giving Patterson the “rookie average” underestimates his likely rookie contribution. Some rookies are 2nd round picks as well, which on the whole have a lower WP than ist round picks.

    “I used Kevin Martins and Yaos best years.”

    “I gave Budinger the same wp48 as Martin. I gave Patterson the rookies average.

    Yao 32 .215 11.7
    Miller 0 0 0
    Scola 33 .150 8.46
    Patterson 15 .050 1.28
    Ariza 36 .081 4.98
    Battier 12 .050 1.03
    Brooks 36 .049 3.01
    Lowry 12 .191 3.92

    Total 50.12″

    First of all, why and how are you using WP48? How did you arrive at Budinger & Martin’s WP value? HOW are you specifically calculating win totals? Where is Budinger & Martin on this list?! By addition & substitution, it appears that you gave the combined WP value for Budinger & Martin of 15.74. If you’re giving Budinger the same WP value as Martin’s best year, your calculation is off substantially. Martin’s best year was 2007, with a WP value of 11.27. Thus Budinger & Martin should be a combined 22.54. Added to the totals from above (34.38) gives me a total of 56.92, which is pretty close to my 58 win estimate.

    You’ll have to be more specific on your calculation method for win totals. I have no idea what you’re doing, or how you’re arriving at your totals.

    P.S. By the way, the Rockets would not win more games next year by playing Lowery more than Brooks, and Hill more than Miller. Lets not get carried away with the WP numbers.

  • doggydogworld

    @Hobson, LLE and minimum contracts can only be two years. MLE is the only way I can see he got three years guaranteed.

    Yeah, Neal’s past is scary. I have to trust that the Spurs did their homework.

  • Jim Henderson

    Firebrand
    July 21st, 2010 at 8:13 pm

    “Houston hmmmm idk call me old fashioned I have no faith in them they let me down on a yearly basis and while they do have some nice pieces I am just not convinced I expect them to be in the playoff hunt but not really a threat when the playoffs begin.”

    Okay, well, be ready to be surprised.

    doggydogworld
    July 21st, 2010 at 8:40 pm

    “The Spurs addressed a lack of depth at shooting guard by signing Gary Neal to a 3 year guaranteed contract. SGs now comprise half our roster.”

    Not adequately addressed. We can’t expect a guy from the development league to come in and solve our 3-point issue, which requires an NBA-tested, clutch-shooting veteran.

    Also, I’m not sure who all your 6 SG’s are, but Hairston & Gees skill-set is much better suited for the SF spot (and have enough size & athleticism to handle it). Hill is just as much of a PG as a SG (a combo). Manu, Anderson, & now Neal are the more true SG’s, in my view.

    Firebrand
    July 21st, 2010 at 8:42 pm

    “Minor correction 3 years ago 07-08 we got bounced by the lakers in the western finals…”

    That’s right, we played a discombobulated Sun’s team in round one (first year of the Shaq experiment), a “Green” Hornet team that had us dead to rights up 3-2 but choked, and we lost to LA so fast I guess I just forgot about it (5 games)!

    Phoebus
    July 21st, 2010 at 9:05 pm

    “This thread would be aaaawesome if it contained less mindless speculation about the 2010-11 Rockets and more details about what we know about RJ’s contract terms.”

    It’s all here, if the “mindful” would take the time to read it.

    See the following Hobson post from earlier”

    Hobson13
    July 21st, 2010 at 6:11 pm

  • Jim Henderson

    Obviously we have too many wings for the Spur roster of 12-13.

    Manu, Anderson, Neal, RJ, Hairston, Gee

    And then there’s three other PG/Combo guards.

    That’s nine guard/wings, which is too much. That could leave just three front court players on the active roster for a given game.

    Obviously at least 2 of the guard/wing players will be spending time in Austin. I would expect it to be two of these three: Anderson, Neal, and/or Gee.

    Is there any link to the Neal signing?

  • Jim Henderson

    If Yao is not sand-bagging here, I might have to back off my prediction of a top-tier playoff seeding for the Rockets. They will make the playoffs though, either way, but if there’s any truth to this article, they should be looking at an additional center for insurance purposes.

    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english2010/sports/2010-07/22/c_13409563.htm

  • Jim Miller (jimjule)

    Add newly signed Gary Neal!!! Neal’s signing,3 years, gives the Spurs the 3 point shooter their looking for. It also looks like Pop is going to go with a full 15 man roster. Signed and delivered are Duncan, Ginobli, Parker, McDyess, Splitter, Blair, Bonner, Jefferson, Hill Neal and I believe that includes Anderson. I make that 11, so Hairston, Temple, Gee, and Anderson could fill out the roster with while Jerrells, Gist and Wilkerson are on the outside looking in. Seven players competing for 4 spots. Looks like a pretty competitive preseason camp.

  • Bentley

    Firebrand,

    “The average age of our team is around 27 . Our three oldest players are timmy at 34 manu at 32 and Mcdyess at 35 .”

    Actually Ginobili will be 33 in 6 days. McDyess will be 36 before the season starts.

    Jim Henderson,

    I agree with your assessment that the Rockets will be one of those dangerous teams next year. Brooks was the most improved, and is easily a top 10 point guard in this league. Will be top 5 in the next couple of years probaably. Martin is a proven scorer. We all know about Scola. Ariza can shoot the 3 and defend exceptionally well for the SF, same thing for Battier. They have Yao back, and then they have Budinger off the bench(this guy is a steal, he went in the second round) and the man shoots lights out! And finally Brad Miller off the bench as an insurance/back-up center, a nice piece and someone who is already familiar with Adelman’s schemes. They will def be better than last year, and I expect them to at least make the playoffs this year.

    I am skeptical about exactly how dangerous they will be. Yao broke his foot against LA in the playoffs in 09, and hasnt sen court time since. The situation is kinda similar to Ginobili’s…in the sense that Yao is going to need almost a full season to try and get back to top form, barring that he gets injured again. So you can’t assume he’s gonna come back 100% and help this team win 50+ games…We expected that with Ginobili last year, and for the first 3 quarters of the season and it didnt happen.

    Sidenote: I don’t see the Spurs being much better than they were last year. Our team is pretty much the same(except Splitter), the celing for this team, as currently constructed in my view, is another 2nd round playoff exit

  • bduran

    “That’s absurd! Duncan’s now 34, and has a chronic knee injury. Let’s drop his WP from 15.6 to 5 for this coming year. Sound good to you?!”

    Despite Duncan’s health problems he’s always been a top producer. What’s absurd is comparing Duncan and Miller. Maybe Miller will rebound somewhat, but at his age I just wouldn’t expect much. You’ve always been quick to point out decline with age. Now that it doesn’t suit your argument you argue that because TD can do it, so can Miller?

    “First of all, why and how are you using WP48?”

    I’m using WP48 times minutes to get WP. Budinger and Martin play the same position so they can’t combine for 22 wins. Using WP48 times minutes makes it easier to figure out minutes.

    “Where is Budinger & Martin on this list?!”

    Oops left them off, but as you noticed they ar3 in the total with 48 mintues combined at a WP48 of .192.

    “I have no idea what you’re doing, or how you’re arriving at your totals”

    WP = wp48*(min/48)*games (I assumed 82 games)

    http://www.permanent-sketch.com/WinsProduced/Main.html

    This is the linke for where I get wp48.

  • Beat Counselor

    2 things.

    1) “Splittering Hairstons” is hilarious and this is the perfect audience for it. Sorry I’m on my blackberry so I don’t know who wrote it several posts back, but props.

    2) Jim Henderson – I often enjoy your very astute and sharp analysis (easily some of the best on the board)yet agree that sometimes you come off a bit condesending. The bit of sugar you have in your last few posts have made them quite a bit more palatable and have made a big difference for me.

  • Jacob

    @ jim

    I’ll believe it when I see it. I think the Rockets finish somewhere around 6th in the West, but I dont see how they overcome LA.

    Care to enlighten me?”

    My apologies, never intended for that to be “jabbish” in any way. we dont have the benefit of seeing body language or hearing tone.

  • bduran

    Jim,

    Sorry for all the mistakes in that post, had to type it in a hurry.

    “By the way, the Rockets would not win more games next year by playing Lowery more than Brooks, and Hill more than Miller”

    Why don’t you think Hill is better than Miller? He’s YOUNG and ATHLETIC. Anyway, he was better than Miller last year.

    One of the reasons I don’t expect much from Miller this year is his poor rebounding rate. Maybe his shooting % comes back up somewhat, but I bet his rebounding stays low. Hill showed a lot of promise, I’d give him as many minutes as possible behind Yao and save Miller as insurance incase Yao goes down.

  • Dr. Who

    @ Jim H.

    Had fun writing War and Peace and you could tell I was thoroughly bored. I’ll defend some of my assessment, but that’s all it is (my assessment). I hear a lot about playoff teams that have peaked, had their run and shouldn’t be as good next year even with the moves they’ve made. I guess people living outside of San Antonio probably think the same about us with our aging stars, getting bounced in the first round for the first time since the Reagan administration (yes exaggerating) and then getting swept in the playoffs the following year. I was mostly trying to look at offseason moves and where teams stand. I should have given them letter grades in retrospect. Looks like we agree on most points, you’re right about Karl. Cancer is absolutely nasty and could strike back again. It was amazing how much that team tailed off last year when Karl was out. That could happen again this year. I don’t think they’ll be a much worse team if Karl is there a full season. True you worry about age and injuries but every team does aside from the Blazers, I mean… Really we are worried about how Manu will hold up, if Timmy’s knees hold up. Kobe showed signs of aging/injury and although the Lakers will be competitive should the “24hrs Rapist” go down they are not the juggernaut that we all love to hate. We do disagree on Mathews value, then again we just paid RJ how much????? Chandler’s health and Roddy’s play will be key for the Mavs along with player development. They should be a strong team. I touched on this though, I don’t think Carlisle is a strong enough coach to lead them to the promised land. I really don’t want to say anything about the Rockets because this thread has become a Rockettes fan Shangri-La, but yes you found the post that everyone has been talking about here in Houston in regards to the comments Yao made about his play in a contract year no less (AFAIK). The other thing is that you keep mentioning he’s played in 84% of his games. I live in Houston and the subject of Yao’s health comes up as often as us complaining that it’s hot as #@^* outside. The number I keep hearing on talk radio is that he’s missed 42% of his game in the last 5 years (maybe it was 4). But, I’ve been hearing that number of several occasions. Not saying it’s right because I haven’t done the research, but that is the number they keep throwing up on talk radio. And yes being in this town, not many put the faith of their entire season on a healthy Yao. However… they are a very young and talented team. They share something similar to the Spurs, they don’t really care how they get there but they want to be in the playoffs with their “Big Buy” healthy. Without Yao I’m not sure they get in since I don’t think there’s a huge fall off in the former playoff teams besides the Suns. With their current roster, they could make it but it will be a tough road and they’ll most likely be a lower seed (without Yao that is). I can see your point with the Jazz, what I’m assuming here is that since Jefferson isn’t a R&R guy that he will man the low post in a different roll that what Boozer was used in. Milsap runs the P&R very well. If they’re on the court at the same time it could be zero fun trying to guard the P&R while worrying about Jefferson’s low post game. Depends if Sloan insists he turn into Boozer Jr. If he does that I agree it will take a while for the team to gel. This is a team I can actually see getting better if they incorporate Jefferson’s skill set. Korver is a big loss that Bell doesn’t totally fill but I think if he’s smart with the use of Jefferson that could create some interesting problems for opposing defenses. Totally agree on the Spurs, we’ve upgraded but probably not enough. Can’t fault the FO for it though, they did what they could with what they had. However, we paid RJ how much???

  • Jim Henderson

    Bentley
    July 22nd, 2010 at 4:48 am

    Nice post. Pretty much agree with most everything you said.

    bduran
    July 22nd, 2010 at 5:36 am

    “Despite Duncan’s health problems he’s always been a top producer. What’s absurd is comparing Duncan and Miller.”

    But I’m not comparing “Duncan & Miller!” That said, Miller has been a solid, professional, and a pretty consistent NBA center for a decade. Dropping Miller’s WP from an average of like 6-7 over the last several years to ZERO is about as realistic as dropping Duncan’s from 15 to 6. I can see dropping Miller’s WP, with probably reduced minutes, down to about 2, but ZERO? That is absurd. I’ll bet you anything that Miller’s WP this year does not end up being ZERO or NEGATIVE.

    The rest of it you’re just not being clear enough on EXACTLY how you’re calculating everything to get to 50.12 wins, let alone the rationale for doing so.

    The easiest way to do it is to look at the average WP from the players that were added, make an adjustment for players that were lost, and add the difference to the win total from last year. That’s what I did, and came up with about 58 wins, assuming all players are reasonably healthy throughout the year (which may be more of an “if” than I thought on Yao?!). Apparently it’s possible for it to take over a year & a half to fully recover from a broken foot. We’ll see.

    See earlier post on Yao’s condition, if you haven’t already:

    Jim Henderson
    July 21st, 2010 at 11:55 pm

    Jacob
    July 22nd, 2010 at 6:51 am

    “My apologies, never intended for that to be “jabbish” in any way. we dont have the benefit of seeing body language or hearing tone.”

    No problem. That’s cool. I don’t mind posts with an edge to them. Of course, the “edge” might come back in return! But it’s all good in good fun, and as long as commentator’s stay away from personal insults, all’s good.

    bduran
    July 22nd, 2010 at 7:21 am

    “Sorry for all the mistakes in that post, had to type it in a hurry.”

    No problem, I understand.

    “Why don’t you think Hill is better than Miller? He’s YOUNG and ATHLETIC. Anyway, he was better than Miller last year.”

    Miller, despite the off year, is still a proven professional with a fairly versatile skill-set for a big man. Hill does have some potential, but is still quite raw. I’d rather go to war with Miller for the next couple of years. After that, Hill might be my man.

    “Maybe his shooting % comes back up somewhat, but I bet his rebounding stays low.”

    Perhaps, but he’s also one of the best passing big men out of the high post.

  • bduran

    ” Dropping Miller’s WP from an average of like 6-7 over the last several years to ZERO is about as realistic as dropping Duncan’s from 15 to 6. ”

    The major difference being that Miller actually had a year last year with a negative WP (and the year before he was only average in WP48 with 3 WP) and Duncan’s always had great years by this metric. Look you may be right that he rebounds, but I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say a 34 year old follows two years of decline with more of the same.. If his body is failing him, there’s nothing he can do about it. I could be wrong, but my reasoning is far from “absurd”. We can disagree on assumptions and if you want to add some wins to your estimate then fine. i’m just explaining mine.

    “The rest of it you’re just not being clear enough on EXACTLY how you’re calculating everything to get to 50.12 wins, let alone the rationale for doing so”

    Sorry if I’m not being clear. Let me know if this explanantion makes sense.

    I listed 3 numbers for every player. Expected minutes, wp48 and then I used the formula WP = wp48*(min/48)*games (for which I assumed 82) to get the last number. I forgot to add in the SG position. I used .192 for both Budinger and Martin giving them 48 minutes at .192 for a WP of 15.7. Then I summed up all the WP to get 50.

    “The easiest way to do it is to look at the average WP from the players that were added, make an adjustment for players that were lost, and add the difference to the win total from last year”

    The problem with this is minutes. For example in all the years you cite Brad Miller producing 5 or 6 wins he’s playing about 30 minutes a game. With Yao in the lineup he’s not going to get as many minutes as he used to. So even without a decline in per minute production he’s going see a drop in WP. So if he does something like 15 minutes a game for 70 games (he’s missed a lot of games over his career) at a WP48 of .050 he’ll produce about 1 win.

    Another example is Budinger and Martin. Two of Houston’s better players from a WP48 perspective but they play the same position so they share the same 48 minute slot. Now I suspect that one of them will get some time at 3 spot, but with Battier and Ariza on the roster I don’t think it’ll be much.

  • Jim Henderson

    bduran
    July 22nd, 2010 at 2:01 pm

    “The problem with this is minutes.”

    Okay, I’ll essentially use your method, with some modifications.

    First of all, one important assumption needs to be made. To do otherwise would make it too burdensome for me.

    — Only the top ten players are used to calculate wins. It will be assumed that all these players play in all 82 games, and nobody else on the team plays (while this will obviously not end up being true, it’s close enough for our purposes, especially IF the Rockets stay pretty healthy – for example, Patterson will obviously get some minutes, but it’s difficult to project how many – by any account, he is unlikely to see more than a very small fraction of the total team minutes throughout the year – it is likely that the Rockets will give Hill more of a chance this year).

    WP48′s are used in the win calculations for all of the top ten players. The base WP48 number is arrived at by the player’s AVERAGE WP48 over the past 5 years or less (e.g., depending how long he’s been in the league – thus, for Lowry & Budinger, just last years WP48). Minutes allocated for each player is a simply a reasonable estimate based on the depth of talent that this team has.

    Top-Ten players in order of average WP48:

    ……….Minutes….minute adj. avg. WP48…Wins

    Yao – …….30 ………..30/48 x .23 x 82……..11.78
    Lowry – ….18 …………………… .19 …………….5.84
    Scola – …..30 …………………… .17 ……………..8.71
    Ariza – ……28 ………………….. .16 ……………..7.65
    Budinger- 18 …………………… .15 ……………..4.61
    Martin – …30 ………………….. .14 ……………..7.18
    Hill – ……..18 …………………… .12 ……………..3.69
    Miller – ….18 …………………… .10 ……………..3.07
    Battier – …20 ………………….. .07 …………….2.39
    Brooks – ..30 …………………… .05 …………… 2.56

    Total – ……………………………………………….57.48

    If you want, you can play with it in terms of projected games lost by some of the more notables (e.g., Yao). But if Yao goes out for “X” amount of games, just plug in the extra minutes for his likely replacements (i.e., Miller, Scola, Hill). But use the same WP48 averages I used. Generally speaking, it’s the fairest way to look at it.

  • trapp quarterz

    IM A DIE HARD SPURS FAN IM 27 YRS OLD AND IVE NEVER PULLED FOR ANOTHER TEAM US BRINGING BACK RJ WAS A GREAT MOVE HE STARTED TO FILL IT IN THE PLAYOFFS NOW THT ROGER MASON AND BOGANS ARE GONE WE DO SOME THINGS THOSE GUYS DID NOTHING FOR OUR TEAM SORRY TO SAY AND IF MR SPLITTER IS AS GOOD AS THEY SAY SOME OF THE PRESSURE IS TAKEN OFF OF TIM DUNCAN MATT BONNER NEEDS TO STEP UP OR SHIP HIS BEHIND OUT OF THERE TONY PARKER MANU GINOBLI BACK AN HEALTHY POINTS FOR SURE GEORGE HILL WILL HAVE TO STEP UP AND BE CONSISTANT WE STILL SHOULD HAVE GOTTEN SHAQ HE FITS IN OUR SYSTEM AND HE WOULD HAVE CLOGGED THE MIDDLE AND ADDED SOME SHOT BLOCKING BUT ALL IN ALL WE DO HAVE A CHAMPIONSHIP CALIBER TEAM IF MANU WOULDNT HAVE BROKEN HIS NOSE AND TONY COMING BACK A LIL RUSTY WE WOULD HAVE SCRAPPED THOSE WHACK A** SUNS IF U LOOK AT IT WE BACK BEHIND LA