Run at a Repeat: Final Thoughts and Prediction
I’ve said it in this space before: I don’t see the point of predictions. I mean, I do in the sense that it gives us something to watch and talk about, a standard of measurement to gauge along the way. The Suns were great last season because we all thought they’d be terrible. The Nuggets were a disappointment because, for some reason, Vegas had them winning like 48 games (or something like that). The Lakers were hilarious because some crazy people actually picked them to make the playoffs last season. Predictions are fun for storylines, but rarely should they be taken totally seriously.
In the same vein, the Spurs’ outlooks have been really interesting to forecast. It’s been so difficult to watch this team and confidently pick its success rate. Age, injury issues, a rising Western Conference full of young, athletic superstars — the discipline and experience has been there for years, but was it going to be enough to overcome the speed of other contenders?
In 2011-12, a small, old roster added Kawhi Leonard and further developed Danny Green and Tiago Splitter. Tim Duncan lost weight, the defense got better, Tony Parker reached a level we hadn’t yet seen before, but that level of experience and cohesiveness as a unit weren’t enough to outlast the Durant-Westbrook-Harden-Ibaka Thunder.
The following season, 2012-13, was once again tricky to predict. By then, Duncan was 36, Ginobili was 35, and there hadn’t been any obvious improvements to point to that would change the roster enough to boost it to the next level. There was no predicting Timmy having a career year on the defensive end. There was no guessing we’d see that sort of shooting season from Green. Who knew Parker would be better than he’d ever been at the age of 30? The Spurs were one weird bounce (or made free throw, or grabbed rebound, or missed 3-pointer) away from those yellow ropes never leaving the court after Game 6 in Miami. But LeBron won out — and it felt like a sign. Was this it? Was the transition official?
Then came the motivation. Patty got swole, Scorin’ Boris visited a monk, Manu was back to being Manu — the Spurs were pissed. They were on a mission. And by the time the Finals ended, the NBA landscape was on the verge of changing. They had rocked a dynasty and destroyed its foundation, and they aren’t finished.
Enough bluster. It’s time to get going again.
Over the last three offseasons, the focal point of my predictions has been around the fact I believed the Spurs would be better. Improvement of the young guys and development within the system after the loss to the Thunder in the Western Conference Finals; a slightly deteriorating HEAT team and consistent development up and down the Spurs’ roster after the 2012-13 Finals collapse. But there was always a certain level of motivation present in those circumstances. Will that be the case this year?
Most people will point to age and injury concerns as a reason San Antonio will dip this season. And that’s fair, I guess. Then again, no team in the league has lost fewer games and payroll money to injury over the last eight years than the Spurs, and no team in NBA history had ever finished a season without a single player averaging at least 30 minutes per game until San Antonio did so last year. You can never absolutely predict the drop-off, but it doesn’t feel like this is the right team to doubt. Yet, it happens year in and year out. And again, that’s fine. It’s a fair concern. I just don’t buy it.
My prediction: The Spurs will repeat for the first time in franchise history, and Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili will hang ‘em up. I actually think this version will be even better than last year’s. I’m not sure we’ve reached peak Spurs quite yet, especially given the room for improvement with this team’s youth.
If this doesn’t happen, it doesn’t matter. Who in the world could’ve guessed four years ago, when the Grizzlies were eating the Big Three alive, San Antonio would be hanging a fifth banner tonight? Certainly not me.
Enjoy the season, everyone. It’s going to be fun, and it might be the end of an unbelievable era.
Here we go.
