San Antonio Spurs 97, Dallas Mavericks 87: George Hill and Manu Ginobili close out the Mavericks

by

AT&T CENTER-Given a second shot at a closeout game after their disappointing Game 5 loss to the Dallas Mavericks, the only adjustment needed by the San Antonio Spurs between games was to find the energy and focus they lacked on the road.

“Minds are kind of hard to understand sometimes,” Manu Ginobili said. “We went into Game 5 relaxed and we were on our heels the whole game.”

The only clear and collective thought running through the minds of the San Antonio Spurs was how badly they wanted to avoid a return trip to Dallas and a Game 7. After struggling in each of the past two games, Tim Duncan came out aggressive early, scoring seven first quarter points-hitting banks shots, running hooks and generally scoring in every conceivable way except at the free throw line (1-7). But it was his and his teammates collective defense that set the tone.

At every turn there was a defender bumping a Dallas Maverick off their path to the basket, at every shot attempt one or two defenders looking to contest. The San Antonio Spurs set a franchise playoff record by holding the Dallas Mavericks to eight points in the first quarter on 25 percent shooting.

That the 22-8 advantage proved to be not nearly enough is a testament to why Gregg Popovich did not want to see the Dallas Mavericks in a Game 7.

“I hope we never have to play those guys again, I don’t even want to play them in the regular season,” San Antonio Spurs head coach Gregg Popovich said. “Change the rules or whatever you have to do, they’re a hell of a team. We’re even, nobody’s better than anyone else. The whole Western Conference seems to be that way.”

With Dirk Nowitzki saddled with four first half fouls, the last two coming on momentary lapses of judgement while swiping at George Hill, the Mavericks battled back from what was a 41-19 lead on the play of Caron Butler (25 points, 9-18 shooting) and rookie Rodrigue Beaubois (16 points, 7-13 shooting) to trim the Spurs advantage to a manageable 13 points at the half.

In the third quarter, the Mavericks fared even better and when Dirk Nowitzki-who had 15 points in the third quarter and 33 for the game-hit a three-pointer to give his team a one-point lead it appeared all the momentum was in his favor.

“We had an almost perfect 20 minutes and let up the last four minutes of the first half and they started the third quarter hot, making every shot,” Spurs guard Manu Ginobili said. “We didn’t start the third quarter with the right mental approach but we corrected our mistakes and we were able to run a couple times down the court and that helped us execute a little better on offense.”

Immediately after Nowitzki’s shot put the Mavericks up by one, Ginobili had what can only be described as another Manu moment, hitting a three-pointer to regain the lead. Beaubois then missed a layup which led to a Tim Duncan layup in transition.

The Spurs never trailed again, thanks in part to the play of second-year guard George Hill, who is having a breakout season similar to the one Rajon Rondo enjoyed during the Celtics championship run.

Hill failed to hit a field goal in the first half, scoring four points off of free throws. At the half, Gregg Popovich told his “favorite player” to forget about his teammates and go “get his name in the newspaper.”

Hill got going late in the third quarter, hitting an up-and-under move on Jason Kidd, answering a Mavericks layup withe a pull-up jumper and hitting a free throw to keep the Spurs ahead. Hill then hit two corner threes and all four of his field goal attempts in the fourth quarter, scoring 10 of his 21 points.

“You dream about playing in big time games like this that really count and that’s the type of person I am,” George Hill said. “I like to compete, I like the pressure, I like the challenge and things like that.”

A year ago the playoffs were not for George Hill. Now, thanks in large part to Hill, the San Antonio Spurs are heading for the second round.

← Older Comments
  • Mason

    I called Spurs in 6 last series. I’m calling Spurs in 5 now. Here are my reasons:

    - relying on up-tempo offense to win you games is not going to take you very far

    - Steve Nash can’t beat the Spurs in a 7 game series

    - Suns had to double Lamarcus Aldridge ….. ……

    - At times, Mavs will pretty effective guarding the pick and roll. Mav defenders were also semi-effective in guarding Manu. I don’t that being the case this round. I see Manu having a big series.

  • junierizzle

    @Jim Henderson

    I didn’t mean to imply that a series against Lakers would be easy.
    I was trying to say that a MAVS series would have been harder or just as hard as a series against the Lakers. But now that the SPURS beaten the MAVS in a tough series, then I love their chances.

    Phoenix won’t be easy by any means, but IMO Dallas is a much better team then Phoenix.

  • Jim Henderson

    bduran
    April 30th, 2010 at 6:18 am

    “Actually the Spurs are a much better defensive team than Phoenix. We give up 104.5 points per 100 possesions vs. 110.2 for Phoenix. The problem is they are by far the best offensive team scoring 115.3 per 100. The next best is Atlanta with 111.9. San Antonio scores 110. So our effeciency differential is 5.5, and Phoenix has a differential of 5.1.”

    And this is what I said:

    “……The Suns are tied with the Spurs for 11th in the NBA in opponent FG%, at 45.2%. And no, you can’t look at points per game given up because the Suns are an up tempo team, and led the league in scoring, so of course they’re going to give up more points. But they can defend, and opposing FG% is the best marker for that in this case. Plus, their point differential is +4.9; ours is +5.1.”

    I don’t see how we’re at odds in these comments that we made. We just approached it slightly differently to come to the same conclusion: the Suns defense is not bad when you take into account their offensive proficiency, and thus, we should not take them lightly in the least.

    Este
    April 30th, 2010 at 9:27 am

    “It would be nice to get some contribution from Mason in this series because our spot up 3 point shooters should get a lot of good looks.”

    No, please, NO MASON! He has unequivocally LOST his shot this season, and is a liability in all other areas of his game. We don’t want to be shooting TOO MANY threes against the Suns anyway, because misses feeds their deadly offensive transition game.

    Colin
    April 30th, 2010 at 10:19 am

    Nice post, Collin. I think you’re right about getting Temple in for spot minutes for defensive purposes. His length matches up well with Dragic.

  • http://spursunderground.blogspot.com/ b.diddy

    Spurs can’t let J.Rich do to them what he did to Portland

  • Jim Henderson

    Mason
    April 30th, 2010 at 10:55 am

    “I called Spurs in 6 last series. I’m calling Spurs in 5 now.”

    I think you’re taking the Suns too lightly.

    junierizzle
    April 30th, 2010 at 11:04 am

    Yeah, I understand. I just think that, should we both advance, the Lakers would be a little tougher for us than the Mavs were (and the Mavs were tough!). That said, I like our chances against LA better than I did even as recently as 4-6 weeks ago, primarily because our team “D” has fairly recently gone up to another level. So, I’m happy about that.

  • Jim Henderson

    By the way, this is a great article for Spur fans that - Tanjavur - April 30th, 2010 at 5:16 am - linked to earlier:

    http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=ArO7kg9CRRBnbjz.dv_CF628vLYF?slug=aw-mavsspurs043010

    Here’s some excerpts to give you a taste:

    “That’s the beauty of the Spurs. They never think they have the answers, but they almost always do.”

    “It just didn’t jell,” Peter Holt said. “There were a lot of frustrating moments for all of us. We could’ve just fallen apart.”……

    “………These are the four-time champion Spurs and Popovich had advanced out of the first round for the 11th time in the past 13 seasons, but make no mistake: This 97-87 Game 6 victory to clinch a Game 6 and a series victory over the Dallas Mavericks had been born of so much struggle and uncertainty. Maybe they were kidding themselves. Maybe the run was over. In the end, everyone had to trust that staying true to this Spurs system, to its core beliefs, would ultimately find them a way out of a murky regular season and into the light of springtime.”…….

    “…….They were wildly up and down this year, and that’s why Duncan dismissed the notion that the Spurs were somehow too good to be a seventh seed in the West.

    “We earned a seven seed,” he insisted. “We got put where we were supposed to be.”

    There’s the greatness of Duncan, the essence of the man: No sense of entitlement, no sense that past glories earned them excuses now. That’s the culture here. That’s why they keep coming, and coming and coming.”…….

    “…………In the moments of truth, there was such a calm over these Spurs. They lost a 22-point lead in the game, lost their touch at the free-throw line and Popovich finally blurted in the huddle: Next guy to miss a free throw owes me a car. On the way back to the court, Duncan, the worst of them all with six misses in seven tries, stared back blankly at his coach and asked, “What color do you want?”

    The entire article is worth a read. Check it if you get the chance.

  • bduran

    Jim Henderson,

    I agree with most of what you said, I just disagreed on one point.

    “The Suns are tied with the Spurs for 11th in the NBA in opponent FG%, at 45.2%”

    “But they can defend, and opposing FG% is the best marker for that in this case.”

    This implies to me that you think that the Suns were approximately as good as the Spurs on D during the regular season. I disagree with this. I agree you have to adjust for pace, which is why I was using points per possession (point per 100 actually but it amounts to the same thing.) They are in the bottom half in points per possession given up. They do an okay job in FG%, so I looked at some of there other stats.

    It looks like they are a little below average in opp 3pt. fg%, total rebounding, and Opp FTs attempted. Of course FTs attempted wasn’t pace adjusted so I’m not sure how important this is. As far is rebounding, they are actually a pretty good offensive rebounding team, but they are a terrible defensive rebounding team. I suspect this is the number reason they give up so many points per possession.

  • lvmainman

    @pastrypride,

    NO way will Nash be guarding Parker frequently because Grant Hill will be on him. Grant Hill spent the series guarding Andre Miller. Nash will be on George Hill and forcing him to be aggressive offensively which will be a good thing. But rarely will Nash be guarding Parker in this series.

    @ Colin,

    I agree Temple should get playing time but, I’m hoping that Hairston gets the minutes instead. He has proven to be effective when guarding Kevin Durant or Kevin Martin holding them scoreless. Hairston’s athletic ability to get up and down the court will be needed as will as defending Richardson should Jefferson get in quick foul trouble again.

    Roger Mason should Never, Ever play again for the Spurs. DNP-CD for him only.

  • VP of Common Sense

    I don’t fear the Suns anymore than I have in the past.

    At the end of the day (apologies for the cliche), the Suns two best players are GREAT on offense but POOR on defense.

    The formula is tried and true. Defense wins championships.

  • Este

    The Spurs need Mason to contribute to keep guys fresh. In 08 playoffs the Spurs relied to heavily on the big 3 in the Phx and Hornets series and had nothing left in the tank when they faced the Lakers in the conference finals. Parker wore down and Manu broke down.

    I know Mason has fallen out of favor with the Spurs faithful but he’s on the roster whether we like it or not so Pop needs to try to get some production from the guy

  • idahospur

    Of our small guys in the playoffs so far: Parker-Hill-Manu-RJ(kind of)-Bogans-Mason. This is what I’ve seen and wait I expect Pop to do. I would put Temple after RJ and I would expect to see Mason be let go if not traded this summer. He did some great things for the team but he isn’t doing it now. Sorry Roger.

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  • BALLHOG

    Truthfully,

    Didnt think our team would even make the playoffs this year. The fact that they not only made the playoffs, but made it to the second round against a team that they could actually beat.

    Amazing…

    Doesnt really matter what happens from this point on…This team has exceeded expectations already…

    Cant get caught up thinking that the Suns cant defend…They can.

    Must be careful of thier bench and must contain Richardson. He will be the key. Spurs have beat the snot out of Suns with most of thier core guys from yesteryear, but they didnt have Richardson or Lopez…

    I say again, Blair really should get 20 min plus per game in this series. Not just minutes, but minutes inwhcih the Spurs are posting him up and feeding him the rock in the low post.

    Im no Bonner fan, but Bonner could get away with more minutes in this series as well…

    If Pop has his backcourt rotations solid for this series, it can be won. However, if he starts that Bogans, Mason BS, its a wrap. Look what Roddy did to us in Mavs game 6….

    Hope the trainer, the coyote, the beer man, all the players, coaches and assistants gave thier end of month checks to the young G. Hill for game 6.

    Finally,

    Win, lose, or draw from this point on in these playoffs….What can any of us say about Ginnobli, Parker, and Duncan….

    Getting to this point with this supporting cast…WOW, Ive been humbled! They are the three kings!

    PS,

    Still think Pop sucked this season! Hope he doesnt jack up round 2…

  • Jim Henderson

    bduran
    April 30th, 2010 at 11:51 am

    “This implies to me that you think that the Suns were approximately as good as the Spurs on D during the regular season.”

    No, I didn’t mean to imply that. However, what it does suggest (opposing FG% numbers), is that the Suns do play better “D” than they did in the past, and they aren’t “that much worse” defensively than any other playoff team in the West. Thus, with their exceptional shooting prowess, their decent level of “D” makes them quite competitive in the West.

    You focus on points per possession, but they’re going to give up more points per possession because they play a transition game. And of course, as you alluded to earlier, they have a “positive differential” in points per possession.

    You also mention the Suns opposing 3-pt. FG% is on the high side, but fail to note that they have the largest differential in the league, at 5.7% (they shoot it at an NBA record 41.2%, and give up 35.5%). In contrast, the Spurs shoot the three at 35.8%, and give it up at a 34.3%, a differential of just 1.5%.

    And again, they don’t need to be one of the top rebounding teams when they lead the league by far in FG%, at 49.2%, and yet they edge the Spurs in both offensive & defensive rebounding (their tied for 5th in the league in total rebounds, we’re eighth - they’re tied for 14th in offensive rebounds, we’re tied for 17th).

    lvmainman
    April 30th, 2010 at 11:53 am

    “NO way will Nash be guarding Parker frequently because Grant Hill will be on him. Grant Hill spent the series guarding Andre Miller. Nash will be on George Hill and forcing him to be aggressive offensively which will be a good thing. But rarely will Nash be guarding Parker in this series.”

    That may be true, but there’s no way Hill can stay with Parker. It’s still a match-up advantage for us.

    And I agree that Hairston should be an option before Temple, if he’s healthy, of course. Apparently, that’s a BIG if.

    Right on about Mason!

    VP of Common Sense
    April 30th, 2010 at 11:56 am

    They have built a core group of defenders around their two stars. Will it be enough? Perhaps not. But with the leading 3 point shooting team in history, their improvement on “D” from their surrounding cast makes them more formidable than ever before. If Lopez remains out due to injury, that hurts them in this match-up.

    Este
    April 30th, 2010 at 12:03 pm

    There’s always guys on a roster that rarely see action unless an “emergency” exists (like a rash of injuries). RMJ should clearly be one of those guys.

  • Jim Henderson

    BALLHOG
    April 30th, 2010 at 1:39 pm

    “Must be careful of their bench and must contain Richardson. He will be the key.”

    Must agree. He is an x-factor for them.

    “I say again, Blair really should get 20 min plus per game in this series. Not just minutes, but minutes inwhcih the Spurs are posting him up and feeding him the rock in the low post.

    Im no Bonner fan, but Bonner could get away with more minutes in this series as well…”

    Good points. Generally agree. Blair just needs to make sure is “mentally ready”. Limit silly fouls, and missed defensive rotations.

    “Still think Pop sucked this season! Hope he doesnt jack up round 2…”

    Don’t agree. Big surprise!

  • KOC

    Pop should be receiving little to no criticism for the job he did during this series. He has a knack for reading his players. He knows when they’re time has come, and when they aren’t quite ready. Whether you agree with the amount of burn given to some players versus others, you have to admit, like a good lover, he knows when to insert and when to pull out. (R.J. may be the only player he made out of wedlock and didn’t use proper protection.) Compare/Contrast. Pop tells Hill, “Go get your name in the paper,” i.e., “take over,” ignore thy teammates. Hill, remember, is supposed to be done in the fourth? Gets all kinds of burn, rewards the coaches faith. Meanwhile when things are going swimmingly for Dallas, Carlilse sends Butler to the bench for a while and more significantly, Beaubois, the player we essentially had no answer for when he found his groove. You think we have complaints? He minimized the two players that restored the lead for them not named Nowitski. When the little frog finally comes back in, we eat him alive, because too much is expected out of him - he’s already programmed to fail. Quite a different approach in psychological warfare wouldn’t you say? And purposefully tanking the previous game after we fell well behind for us to come out with exactly the kind of energy and first quarter we needed to set the precedent to win? Genius. Perception is a helluva thing. Pop is unmatched by most in the league.

  • bduran

    Jim Henderson,

    At this point it may just be semantics, but my point is that they are worse defensively. Obviously they make up for it on offense. In fact, they are worse defensively than they have been in the past, they just are also better offensively. This is one of the best offensive teams in the league in a long time. If your point is that their defense suffers because of the way they plan on offense and it’s worth it, then I won’t argue ’cause I just don’t know. However, D is not a strength of theirs.

    Also, the rebounding numbers you cite are misleading. They only rebound .704 of opponents missed shots. This is not good. Y ou can’t look at totals per game for the same reason you can’t look at points, they aren’t pace adjusted. So they are in fact a poor defensive rebounding team. They are a good offensive rebounding team rebounding over 27% of their missed shots.

    Another way to look at it is rebound differential. We out rebounded teams by 3.3 a game (good for 3rd), they out rebounded teams by only .7 a game (which puts them in a 3 way tie for 12th). We should beat this team on the boards. If we don’t … well, bad things will probably happen.

  • Bushka

    Nice post ballhog.

    Also collin I like the idea of Temple, but for me right now I’d rather see an active Malik Hairston playing spot minutes at the 2 if needed and backing up the three.

    I don’t think anyone in this series is the kind of guy that needs a Bogans type on him defensively.

    Theres no big 3 who plays a point forward role here like Carmello.

    I think everyone is in agreement that the suns are crying out to be Blaired in the face right?

    Frye is no power man down low, nore is Amare for that matter.

  • Colin

    Bushka

    Amare is no power man down low????

    I’d have to disagree with that. You’ve watched him this season right?

  • Gary

    We gonna TEAR UP Suns :D

  • Jim Henderson

    KOC
    April 30th, 2010 at 1:57 pm

    Nice post, KOC!

    bduran
    April 30th, 2010 at 1:57 pm

    “In fact, they are worse defensively than they have been in the past……”

    No way, show me the data to back this up. I think you’re wrong here.

    On the rebounding data that you cite, I have a couple of issues:

    (1) How did you arrive at the data for rebounds as a percentage of opponents missed shots? Also, it would help if you’d cite the same number for the Spurs, as well as for the best teams (e.g., Cavs, Magic, LA, Jazz, Celtics) in the league in this regard, for comparison.
    (2) How are these stats you cite relevant to the whether the Suns are effective on the defensive end? The Suns might give up more second-chance point opportunities, but “defensive rebounding” is more of an indirect measure of team defense. Defensive rebounding is more relevant “defensively” when comparing “half-court” offenses with other “half-court” offenses; not so much when comparing “high-tempo-transition” offenses with “half-court” offenses. Ultimately, if a team shoots a much higher percentage than other teams, and rebounds effectively on the offensive end (which you admit is true in the Suns case), it seems to me that it would not hurt them nearly as much in terms of wins/losses and point differential (which are the most important factors in the final analysis) as it would teams who shoot a lower percentage and/or don’t rebound well on the offensive glass.
    (3) On rebounding differential: Again, same concept; the Spurs need to out-rebound their opponents, particularly against the Suns, because our FG% vs. opponents FG% differential is just 2.1%, while for example for the Suns it is an NBA leading 4%.

    “We should beat this team on the boards. If we don’t … well, bad things will probably happen.”

    This I agree with you on, because we’re more of a half-court offense, and don’t cash in on offensive possessions at nearly the rate of the Suns (offensive rating of 115.3; Spurs 110.0). In other words, we MUST limit the number of Suns possessions as much as possible to win. Obviously, rebounding is one way we can do that (controlling tempo, another).

    Colin
    April 30th, 2010 at 2:54 pm

    “Bushka

    Amare is no power man down low????

    I’d have to disagree with that. You’ve watched him this season right?”

    I’m quite sure Bushka means from a “defensive” standpoint.

  • Jim Henderson

    From my previous post:

    “…..our FG% vs. opponents FG% differential is just 2.1%, while for example for the Suns it is an NBA leading 4%.”

    Actually, I overstated here. Cleveland & Utah are the only other teams that beat the Suns differential in this case, both at 4.2%.

    However, if one used TS%, which is probably even more relevant for the point I was making, the Suns probably come out on top because they lead the Cavs & Jazz in 3-point % by 3.1% & 4.8%, respectively.

  • Jimmy Dean

    Is RMJ engineering his exit from the NBA or just the Spurs with his play this season? He’s big in the music business (his girlfriend is a rising star named Cece and most of his energy this season has gone into promoting her work) so he should be set but oh man what a way to go out after being Money Mase.

  • spursf@n25

    I’m glad the Spurs made Jason Terry eat up his words. Terry guaranteed a Mavs’ victory in game 6 but was a no show in the game. Hey Terry, 1/7 shooting with 2 pts. is not how you back up your guarantee.

    I hope this is the year of the Spurs but just to get to the NBA final the spurs would have to knock off the top 3 seeds in the West. Wow that’s tough. :\

  • bduran

    Jim,

    You can go to the espn team stats page and it has the rebounding percentages. I got the points per possession from basketballreference.com

    Also, my evidence for their poor defense is their points per possession given up. I then looked at some other stats and then saw that they have a poor defensive rebounding and speculated that this may be a large part of the reason. Maybe they have other areas of weakness that are equally problematic.

  • Miggy

    Just wanted to throw this out there. Not only was our final season loss to the Suns the back end of a back to back and not only was it Parker’s second game back from injury and not only was it our 3rd successive road game in which we had just won in Los Angeles and Sacramento oh and beaten Orlando and Houston at home prior to the road trip, but George Hill did not play. Injured. Mason, Temple, Hairston ate his 40+ minutes.

    I love our chances. Go Spurs Go!

  • Blentzen

    I truely feel sorry for the Mavs fans. To have such high hopes and great expectations dashed on the rocks of reality year, after year, after year must be heartbreaking. Better luck next year. Now all you Spurs fans join my mantra: I STILL BELIEVE!!!!! 2010 THE YEAR OF THE SPURS!!!!! GO SPURS GO!!!!!

  • Easy B

    Not to rain on everyones statistical parade, but the spurs just demonstrated how “intangiables” overcame what on paper appeared as outmatched in talent. I think the Mavs haven’t been as discerning as the Spurs (and probably not as lucky over the years) when building a team that has ALL the ingredients needed to win.
    My first gut feeling for Spurs v Suns series: Spurs in 5. They have enough offensive weapons to counter the Suns, and always do the little things in the game that bit better than Phoenix. Having games every 2 days could wear on Duncan and the veterans, pushing it to six….but its looking like the “old” spurs players have their eye on the opportunity to have a battle royale with the lakers….and the younger guys are proving to be very opportunistic.
    Spurs in 5 gets us enough rest to throw the gauntlet at LA on the road in games 1 and 2….I see LA dispatching Utah in 5 aswell - but hoping for six….because rest and recovery is paramount going up against that kind of size.

  • duaneofly

    People worry about the Suns offensive prowess, which is impressive, but I think the Suns need to worry about us! Tony / Manu / Hill were crazy awesome vs the Mavs, and should run circles around the Suns as well!
    I’m also glad the Suns closed out Portland in 6, this way Pop knows who we are playing and can use these three days off to prepare.
    I’m going to pick Spurs in 5! Win, Lose, Win, Win, Win.

  • bduran

    Jim Henderson,

    to continue…

    “Ultimately, if a team shoots a much higher percentage than other teams, and rebounds effectively on the offensive end (which you admit is true in the Suns case), it seems to me that it would not hurt them nearly as much in terms of wins/losses and point differential (which are the most important factors in the final analysis) as it would teams who shoot a lower percentage and/or don’t rebound well on the offensive glass.”

    Sure, but I was focusing on only one part of the equation, defense. Ultimately it’s about scoring more points per possession than the other guy, and the Suns, despite allowing a lot of points per, do quite well because they are ridiculously efficient on offense. The Suns are good at winning and they make me very nervous.

    The last time we faced them we shot 47.6% and rebounded almost half our misses and yet lost by 11. Scoring against the Suns is not the problem, limiting them offensively is.

    Also, according to basketball reference, the Suns were worse defensively last year, but prior to that haven’t had defense this bad since ’95-’96.

  • idahospur

    Spurs in 6, same set-up as against Dallas. Lose, Win, Win, Win, Lose, Win.
    We let Dirk score crazy and we did fine, so Amare will score too But we need defense on the others. Cannot let Nash move the ball and get assists. High assists lead to wins for that team. Their bench won’t provide too much trouble if we play the same rotations as the Dallas series. That really leaves Hill and Richardson. We keep them cold, like we did to Marion, and we will win.
    I was hoping the Thunder could push LA to 7 but no such luck.
    GO SPURS GO!!!!

  • Jim Henderson

    bduran
    May 1st, 2010 at 7:41 am

    “Also, according to basketball reference, the Suns were worse defensively last year, but prior to that haven’t had defense this bad since ‘95-’96.”

    I assume you are using the “defensive rating” stat to come to this conclusion. This is not the “ultimate” stat to use for determining the ultimate effectiveness of a team’s defense because it does not take “offensive tempo” into account. It is centrally tied to points given up per possession. The Suns did not became a “high” octane offense until Nash arrived in 2004-05, when their win total jumped from 29 to 62. This is when BOTH their offensive & defensive rating went considerably higher. It does not mean their defense was worst, but that they were not as concerned about it in a high transition situation that was to their advantage. This is why opposing team FG% is an important defensive stat because its “number” is not nearly as skewed by tempo-related factors as is the “defensive rating”. And just think about it for a moment: No team has EVER had the defense of the Spurs in 2003-04 (94.1 rating, 40.9 opp. FG%) and the offense of the Suns in 2009-10 (115.3 rating, 49.2 FG%, 41.3 3-pt.%). They wouldn’t lose a game! The “ratings” are as much about tempo as they are about defensive or offensive prowess. You gave to look at FG%’s to get a balance of the relative effectiveness of a teams offense or defense. Their was only one other year where the Suns opp. FG% was lower than this year, and only by a small amount, and their offensive rating was not as high.

  • Mason

    We couldn’t make Dirk play defense last series and we couldn’t make Nash play defense in years past. We’ll make him play defense now.

  • Colin

    Mason

    Agreed. Nash has always had trouble guarding Parker in yrs past so they would put Bell or someone else on him and hide Nash on Bowen. Hell, Nash can’t even guard my kitchen table! Now with George Hill being a different kind of threat, there is nowhere to hide Nash on defense.

  • bduran

    Jim,

    Points per possession (ppp) is the best defensive stat. It does take pace into account because it doesn’t care about possessions per game. FG% leaves out rebounding, 3 pts, TOs, etc. If you are making the argument that the Suns sacrifice some things on D in order to play they way they want on offense that’s okay, I agree. However, that is not the whole story by any means.

    Like I said, it comes down to ppp given up vs ppp scored. Your argument seems to be that that the Suns D isn’t so bad because they chose to give somethings in one area to increase things in another which ultimately increases their efficiency differential. I agree with that and it works for them. They still give up a lot of points on D.

    Also, their poor Defensive Rating isn’t a foregone conclusion because of their pace. They were a better team in 2004-05. The scored almost as many ppp (1.145 vs 1.153), but gave up only 1.071 vs 1.102 this year. They did this while playing at pace generating 95.9 possessions a game as opposed to 95.3 this year. So almost as efficient on O, much better on D, and played at a faster pace.

  • BigJ

    Taking a read through the various break down’s of this series leads one down the path for a Suns’ victory. Looks the NBA.com, ESPN.com, CNNSI.com, CBS.com, etc are going with the opposition in 7 games. I on the other hand think this series has the same muscle memory as the Spurs/Mavs.

    Come crunch time Dirk often responds the same way against a healthy Spurs team. Similarly Amare and Nash have certain responses as well. The common suggestion out there is the Suns dispatched a tough Blazers team with their new found team defense and rebounding. Allbeit true to a point, comments like this dismiss a great deal about the Spurs in order to provide substance for a Suns victory.

    My factors:

    a) Three days off before start of series
    b) Parker is poison to Nash’s pain
    c) RJ was non-existent earlier in the season
    d) When the heat is on, Amare is an ego centric star who will over rely on his own greatness to his team’s detriment (Charley Rosen speaks well to this)
    e) Manu is a Suns killer
    f) Pop > Gentry

    Go get ‘em boys.

    GO SPURS GO!

  • Glib Grouse

    It’s the playoffs — I am a big fan of this blog, and only say this out of love — but there really should be more posting. The pre-series commentary re the Suns shouldn’t have to be tacked onto a recap of game 6 from the last series.

  • spursf@n25

    It is a big mistake to underestimate the Suns considering how close they came to beating the Spurs in 07 playoffs. If it wasn’t for the fortunate suspensions the Suns might have beaten the spurs that year!

    Regarding the point guard match, it’s a good idea for Pop to start Parker for the exact reasons Colin & bigJ stated. Maybe benching Manu would also be a good idea because he has not shot the ball well since the nose injury.

    I think the key for the Spurs defensively is to slow down Richardson who is technically the 3rd scorer behind Stoudamire and Nash but is the Suns’ leading scorer thus far in the playoffs.

  • Jim Henderson

    bduran
    May 1st, 2010 at 1:29 pm

    “Points per possession (ppp) is the best defensive stat. It does take pace into account because it doesn’t care about possessions per game. FG% leaves out rebounding, 3 pts, TOs, etc.”

    From basketball-reference.com, here is the definition for “defensive rating”:

    “Points allowed per 100 possessions.”

    It’s really a pretty simple stat.

    True, Drtg. does treat as neutral possessions per game. And, I never said Drtg. “completely disregards pace”. That said, ALL fast-paced teams will have a poorer Drtg. Does that mean all fast-paced team don’t play “D” well-enough to win deep into the playoffs? Perhaps, all things being equal, it may be more difficult, but certainly not out of the question. Look at the show-time Lakers of the 1980′s (no, I’m not comparing this years Suns to them! Just illustrating a point that it can be done - Magic’s Lakers did not win just because of a high-paced offense).

    Also, in some respects, having a low opponent FG% is even more impressive on a fast-paced team because the opponent is also bound to get more easy baskets in transition than they might ordinarily get. Bottom line: No fast-paced team is going to be as good defensively as the best half-court-type team defenses. However, as you know, it takes both offense & defense to win a title. I’m simply saying that the defense of this years Suns is underrated. It’s MUCH better than last year, and it is competitive with the all other Suns teams during the Nash era, with the highest Ortg., and highest 3-point percentage. We would be making a mistake to under-appreciate their ability in any aspect of their game, including defensively.

    Finally, opp. FG% is a purer measure than Drtg. is of “real” defense. It doesn’t care at all about pace. It asks, how infrequently do you allow your opponent to score, regardless of possessions per game, pace, or whether it’s in the half-court, or in transition. It cares about “fundamental defense”, as opposed to gambling for steals, how fortunate you are that your opponent commits an unforced turnover, or how good you are at rebounding, ergo, affecting the “possessions per game” in your favor. Let’s face it, steals aren’t always good “D”, turnovers are certainly not caused by good “D” many times, and rebounding is only indirectly related to “defense”.

    “Your argument seems to be that that the Suns D isn’t so bad because they chose to give somethings in one area to increase things in another which ultimately increases their efficiency differential. I agree with that and it works for them. They still give up a lot of points on D.”

    In answer to the first sentence in the paragraph quoted above, yes, and that’s what wins championships for teams with high-octane offenses (e.g., Magic’s Lakers). So again, if the Suns are running their team to maximize their strengths, which is fast-paced scoring, they’re going to be stuck with giving up more “easy” opportunities for the opponent to also score in transition. That’s just a reality of life. But giving up “a lot of points” is not the truest measure of team defense, or we could make it simpler and just look up points allowed per game. My whole argument is that the Suns defense is “underrated”. It’s not great, it’s pretty decent, but not as good as the Spurs.

    “Also, their poor Defensive Rating isn’t a foregone conclusion because of their pace. They were a better team in 2004-05. The scored almost as many ppp (1.145 vs 1.153), but gave up only 1.071 vs 1.102 this year.”

    I do agree that from a combined offensive/defensive perspective (which takes into account opp. FG%), the Suns were a bit better in 2004-05, and their record bears that out. Unfortunately, the Spurs were better then too.

    However, with Lopez in the line-up, the current Suns may very well be “comparable defensively in the half-court set” to the 2004-05 team, which of course is crucial in end-of-game situations in the playoffs. As you know, there are key times when you just need a stop in the half-court. During those relatively rare times when they’re stuck more than they would prefer in the half-court set, they are better than the typical Suns team has been since Nash arrived . I do not believe they are as good as the Spurs are in these situations, and that’s one of the reasons I favor the Spurs in a seven-game playoff match-up, if they can win the tempo-war.

  • bduran

    I understand what defensive rating is, it’s points per possession (points per 100 is the same thing).

    “Finally, opp. FG% is a purer measure than Drtg. is of “real” defense. It doesn’t care at all about pace. It asks, how infrequently do you allow your opponent to score, regardless of possessions per game, pace, or whether it’s in the half-court, or in transition.”

    This is not true, it doesn’t say how frequently the opponent scores, that’s ppp. It says how often does the shot go in when the opponent shoots. PPP takes everything into account opponent FG% takes only into account shots that leave the hand and whether or not they go in. Extremely limited.
    If a team only allows 25% FG, but gives allows opponents to rebound 90% of their own misses, they will be terrible on Defense (I know this is an outrageous exaggeration, just trying to make a point.)

    A simple stat like ppp doesn’t tell us why or how or anything like that. It just says what is. So I’ll say it again, but Suns are a very good team but they are not good on Defense. If a team is giving up a lot of points on every trip the opposing team makes down the floor they aren’t playing good D.
    A team can make the a decision to sacrifice D for O and play better as a result and that should be noted in any analysis.

  • Jim Henderson

    bduran
    May 1st, 2010 at 3:50 pm

    Fine, I’ll redefine opp. FG% slightly:

    “opp. FG% is a purer measure than Drtg. is of “real” defense. It doesn’t care at all about pace. It asks, how infrequently do you allow your opponents shots to go in the basket, regardless of possessions per game, pace, or whether it’s in the half-court, or in transition.”

    That’s what defense is. It’s stopping your opponent from making a shot, preferably without fouling him.

    “PPP takes everything into account opponent FG% takes only into account shots that leave the hand and whether or not they go in. Extremely limited.”

    But that’s the point, ppp allowed takes TOO much into account to be a “fine” enough measure to hone in on defining “defense”, and instead allows in a bunch of factors that only “indirectly” measures “defense”. It instead more directly measures a teams success at “allowing a team to score less points in a game”, primarily by simply winning the “efficiency” battle over points allowed per 100 possessions. This clearly FAVORS slow, half-court teams, like Charlotte, Boston, or Milwaukee, because you’re going to score less often per possession in the half-court compared to in the open court, in transition. Surely you can see this, right?

    Other than that, I think we just have a fundamentally different idea as to what “defense” really means. For the type of up-tempo offense the Suns run, their defense is pretty good.

  • Gary

    Spurs in 6.. a real bash like we love it.. L-W-W-L-W-W

  • bduran

    Allright, last attempt.

    “That’s what defense is. It’s stopping your opponent from making a shot, preferably without fouling him.”

    NO, it’s stopping the opponent from SCORING. That is defense. Stopping the shot is a good start. Points scored per possession is the only stat that matters. I don’t care how good your FG% defense is, if your opponent is scoring a lot per possession it’s a problem. The Suns are getting by right now because their offense is amazing. As in, no one has scored this well per possession in a long, long time.

    Look, a team could make every shot they took, but turn the ball over half the time down the court and they would be terrible. I don’t care how well you shoot, if you score points at a high rate every trip down the court you will be a good offense, if you don’t you won’t.

    “For the type of up-tempo offense the Suns run, their defense is pretty good.”

    I agree. Sun’s are good and they’ve decide what to focus on.

  • Jim Henderson

    Okay, let me try to sum this up. This is what I said “defense” is:

    “It’s stopping your opponent from making a shot, preferably without fouling him.”

    This what you said defense is:

    “NO, it’s stopping the opponent from SCORING. That is defense. Stopping the shot is a good start. Points scored per possession is the only stat that matters.”

    Ultimately, having a “good” defense only matters in the context of how “good” your offense is. After all, the objective is to score on avg. more points in 48 minutes of Hell than your opponent does. That’s how you win or lose. Points per possession scored, and given up, is an indicator of your chances of success in this regard. Thus, in this most important context, the Suns do quite well compared to the other playoff teams. Their points per possession differential is 5.1. The only teams with higher differentials is Orlando (8.1), Cleveland (7.1), Utah (5.7), Spurs (5.5), and Hawks (5.2). The Hawks also do not have a high ranked Drtg, but are the 2nd ranked in Ortg. Only the Magic & Cavs have an Ortg./Drtg. differential of greater than .6 over the Suns.

    So I’ll settle for this admission on your part:

    I said:

    “For the type of up-tempo offense the Suns run, their defense is pretty good.”

    You said:

    “I agree. Sun’s are good and they’ve decided what to focus on.”

    And I still say considering a teams opp. FG% is important in deciding what team has the best defense, because I don’t think Charlotte has the best defense in the league (good, but not the best). That would be Orlando.

  • http://sportschump.net Chris Humpherys

    Who would have ever thought starting George Hill over Tony Parker was the right move?

    That’s why Pop is a head coach and I just watch the NBA on tv.

    Here’s my take on what went wrong with the Mavs. Think Pop could have won with that team?

    http://sportschump.net/2010/05/03/woe-are-the-dallas-mavericks/3623/

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