Spurs Mailbag: Prepare Yourselves for a Crazy Offseason

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The most painful part of watching basketball right now isn’t just that the Spurs got knocked out, it’s that the best series of the postseason may have just ended. Watching the Rockets and Clippers the other night just felt like a series of stabs to the chest. It sucked. Anyway, the best way to deal with that is to vent and discuss, so let’s open the ol’ mailbag and take a look what’s inside.

Xu Han (China):

What do you think is the major factor that culminated our loss? Is it Kawhi Leonard surprisingly ineffective since Game 4? After all, everyone thought that he would dominate at the No.3 position. What do you think should Spurs do during the offseason to improve their chances for next season?

The biggest factor in the loss was the team’s defense. They couldn’t stop the Clippers from scoring, and much of that was because of an injured Tiago Splitter.

It’s so weird how Leonard went from beast mode, not only through three games, but for damn near three months, only to fade at the end. Credit the Clippers, who bent their game plan to keep him away from his spots, but you weren’t wrong to expect more. It’s important to remember: This is a guy whose offensive skill set was very raw coming out of college, and while he’s had his moments that make you feel as if he’s made it as a star at the NBA level — and to be fair, he has — he’s still only 23 years old, and he’s spent very little time as the focal point of an offense. He’ll learn.

The Spurs are a difficult organization to predict when it comes to offseason plans, but there’s reason to think they’re going to look for an extra playmaker or two. There has to be be concern over the fact Tony Parker has been banged up for each of the previous three postseasons, and while we’re probably on the verge of TP giving in a little more to the maintenance plans his older teammates have already experienced, this is still the second oldest team in the league. Though I think it’s the front-court that needs the most help, especially considering the end of Tim Duncan’s career is around the corner. Not to mention, the Spurs have been mentioned as likely suitors for LaMarcus Aldridge or Marc Gasol. Their overseas prospects may not be ready to contribute yet, especially considering Davis Bertans injury, so I think you’ll see them start with their own crucial elements before turning to those aforementioned free agents.

Zachery Turner (West Virginia):

Everyone wants to talk big player movement, but what do you see happening to the bench with Marco Belinelli, Manu Ginobili, Cory Joseph, and others seemingly destined to leave? Any chance guys like DeShaun Thomas or Livio Jean-Charles see some action this season? Or are there better options in this draft to play right away and contribute?

I wouldn’t say Marco is destined to leave. He’s a pretty good fit. The only thing I’m curious about is how much money he’ll be looking for, though he’s shown a willingness to take a pay cut to play in San Antonio. Remember, he was offered more money elsewhere a couple of summers ago, and he chose the Spurs. He’s got a ring now, so that’ll be something to watch. As for Manu, I fear we may be at the end. I don’t WANT to think that — he’s one of my favorite players to ever have watched. Cory? I wonder if he’s going to take a bigger opportunity elsewhere. He’s deserved it, and I’m not sure San Antonio will want to pay as much as he’s worth just to be a third-string point guard. The only thing on that front: If the Spurs feel they NEED three point guards in order to protect Parker (and that’s a real concern), then maybe they explore this. I feel like Joseph may want more. As for the likes of Jeff Ayres or Aron Baynes or Matt Bonner: There’s real value in continuity and locker-room presence, and Baynes has been a decent player who’s improved. And last, but far from least, Matty is an absolute delight and a favorite of everyone’s around the team. That sort of thing is important. I don’t want to see him go.

This is a tough call, but I’m guessing they’ll look elsewhere first. Livio has hardly produced, though he has dealt with injuries. But he’s also still very young at 21 years old. As for Thomas, perhaps he’s nearing an NBA chance at some point, but I have no idea if he can defend at the NBA level. That’s a necessity in the Spurs’ organization. (Trevor Zickgraf will no doubt have more on the draft in the coming weeks, but typically speaking, it’s difficult to find guys in the 20s who can contribute right away. But we’ll see.)

John Lugo:

Where do you think is the biggest area of improvement for the team this summer?

This depends on so many things. What happens with Manu and Duncan? Which players decide to explore free agency? Once the big dominos fall (Duncan, Manu, Kawhi, Green) we’ll get a better idea of the outlook. I will say, though, the chronic nature of Splitter’s injuries concern me, and if Timmy does indeed come back (and even more so if he doesn’t) he’s going to need support. More importantly, we know Duncan’s career is nearly over, whether that’s now or a year or two from now. The Spurs are going to have to fill a void. They’ve got back-court issues as well, but finding a big man to both help support Timmy and usher in a new era has to be a priority.

Thomas Rochelle:

Any thoughts on some mid-tier players they could realistically target? Also, no more Manu in the HEB commercials? RIP.

Sincerely,
Mengke Bateer

That’s the weirdest, most obscure fake signature reference I could’ve ever imagined. I laughed. What the hell were you … eh never mind.

Guessing on free agents is always such a tricky thing to do. There are quite a few potential candidates out there, but it’s almost impossible to guess who will stay with their teams and who will jump ship. Also, I’m finding it difficult to distinguish what’s going to qualify as “mid-tier” going forward, considering the salary-cap spike we’re about to experience. There’s going to be so much money flying around that guys who were previously Mid-Level-Exception types are likely going to be asking for more than that going forward. I’m not going to speculate on this at the moment because the Spurs currently have priorities that will tie up their ability to spend money right away, but here’s a pretty comprehensive list of who might become available. First things first, though — lock up Leonard, figure out the Duncan situation, and bring back Green. Then let’s see who falls through the cracks.

As for your other question: If Manu does retire (and that’s hardly a done deal), I’m hoping for some cameo appearances. At the very least, we need that.

Sean Milligan:

If Tim, Green and Marco come back, what are the cap scenarios for signing a player like Aldridge? Will Kawhi finally shave his corn rows next season?

I didn’t want to leave this question out, but I wanted to put it off for a second. I will get deep into all of this cap-related stuff in the near future. But, to preview: If the Spurs were to bring back all three of these players, it would be very difficult to free max-salary money without shifting a few other pieces around or renouncing the rights to several other players. Of course, it all depends on how much money these guys will be asking for. Unless they’re able to get a guy like Aldridge for a discount, bringing back all of those guys would entail renouncing Aron Baynes and Cory Joseph, AND signing the Duncan-Green-Belinelli trio for something absurdly low like $12 million combined. There are other ways of doing it, one of which might involve trading Tiago Splitter (this is another thing I’ll be addressing soon). But to answer your question in short, it would be tricky to get all those things done.

As for your second question: Personally, I want him to keep the hair long and rock a ‘fro. But that ain’t happening.

Mati Pelich

This series was definitely the best I’ve seen the Spurs in since 2008 when they played the Suns. The best moment of that series personally, and one of the greatest Spurs memories in my mind was Game 1, when Ginobili drew a double team driving to the basket in OT and kicked it out to Duncan for the 3, which was followed by the AT&T losing its mind to the fact that Tim Duncan had just sent the game into double overtime on a 3. Ginobili later won the game on a classic game winning layup, this time over Raja Bell. Any moments like these that come to mind for you when thinking about Duncan and Manu over the years?

I swear I don’t mean to keep avoiding questions, but the 48 MoH crew is going to be reminiscing on some of our favorite Big 3 moments in the near future, so stay tuned. But please feel free to discuss this question in the comment section. There are plenty of moments to choose from, that’s for sure.

Lastly, I wanted to share this e-mail we received from someone named Andrew. There are no questions, but it means a lot to get this kind of stuff from readers.

Hey Guys,
First off, giving you a heads up this might ramble and I’m sorry, but I figure if anyone understands my emotions right now it’s the staff that run the best Spurs blog (hoping some honest flattery gets me some forgiveness).
So I’m sending the email from my phone so sorry about formatting. The reason for using my phone is I’m sitting in hospital next to my newborn son, James.
James was born early, at 27 weeks and 2 days actually, on the 20 April 2015. He is doing really well though, but it struck me during the Clippers series and especially as I was telling James about the game 7 loss that he will never understand the beauty that was this team and it made me SO sad.
As I thought on this more I realised why I think it hurt so much. I feel like I have had the amazing privilege to have watched this team come together over the last 18yrs and that the Basketball Gods aligned things so perfectly that it’s so unlikely James will ever get to follow such a great, unique, excellent group of diverse athletes ever again.
I have no doubt James will be a Spurs fan(Honestly, he has no choice). But this run of excellence started when I was 17 and I turn 35 this year. It makes me sad to think that James will never experience live a 39yo Tim Duncan taking a guy 13yrs his junior (really, at this stage ALL players are his junior but I was referring to DeAndre Jordan) to school in the post, or Manu Ginobili exploiting angles no one else could even see or aTony Parker one man fast break and Pops’ quarter time side line interviews.
And while I know previously talk of the end of the Spurs Big 3 has been greatly exaggerated, I can’t help but feel this time it is the end. It’s like I have been at this amazing party with my closest friends and family and through the night people have come and gone that have been important in my life, but now it’s 4am, I’m sitting on the couch with my 3-4 life friends, the people I’ve known years and will know forever and one of them has just fallen asleep and the others are drifting off and I know the night is finishing but I just want it to linger that bit longer.
I know Ginobili is most likely leaving and honestly it was painful at times waiting for his GINOBILI (read in Barkley’s voice haha) game but knowing deep down he just didn’t have that gear now. And that’s what is so bittersweet: it sucks seeing them lose a series I believe they could win at full strength but they have given so many sweet memories over 18yrs that who am I to complain?
While I think two thirds of the Big 3 will be back, it’s just never going to be the same. The winds of change seem to finally have caused a ripple through the Spurs sail and I feel they will be caught in the storm sooner rather than later. Hopefully they will ride the waves as always and come out even better.
So, seeing as I haven’t taken up enough of your time, just some quick thoughts:
- Tony Parker IS underrated and I don’t understand why so many Spurs fans turn on him so quickly. I feel he has enough credits in the bank to get some leeway, but man he cops it and I just think he deserves more love for everything he has given this franchise.
- Leonard is my new favourite Spur. He is just a gun and still so young. Rough game 7 but so much potential and he’ll come back even better next year.
- Splitter’s late season injury had a bigger impact than most people realize.
- As much as the season sucked as it was so up and down, it was exciting having to watch the standings so closely for the first time in years. Also this off-season is going to be just as exciting.
- Can you try to convince Duncan to just admit he is just an one of the Basketball Gods or a robot? It’s about time.
- Lastly, thanks for all your amazing coverage and reading material you all provided from this season, I love what you guys write and it annoys me when people get upset with your contributions. PLEASE don’t change “El Conclusion” because if people don’t get it, then fuck em. You guys rock and you should all know that.

Thanks for reading, Andrew, and the rest of y’all as well. And never say never. Your son James will experience his share of moments. Maybe they’ll be different than yours, but that’s not to say they’ll be any worse. Whatever happens next, the groundwork and the foundation is there. More great times are ahead, so just do your best to share with your son what this era meant to you. The very least you could ask is that he just falls in love with the game itself, and if that happens, it’ll be almost impossible to be disappointed.

Again, thanks to everyone who reads. And you know what else? HELL NO WE’RE NOT CHANGING EL CONCLUSIÓN!


  • Juan

    Andrew’s kid, James, can see the Ginobili twins play as Spurs! Imagine a double Manu!

  • DorieStreet

    Our Spurs unfortunately are not moving on. Their 7-game tilt with the Clips was the lone bright spot in an otherwise dud first round (especially compared to last year).
    But let’s not declare Western Conference matchup 3 v. 6 the pageant winner now.
    There’s still 3 1/2 rounds of postseason ( and 5 weeks) left of basketball to be played to declare an NBA champion.

  • mattman22

    Lets see aldridge come to S.A. hopefully keep Splitter but if the right trade comes take it. walk away from cory and marco (he cannot play defense) so we can free up some space. we have patty who can play both the point and SG. just a thought.

  • Gabbo

    The challenge is that it’s going to be very hard to keep Green, Splitter AND add a major piece.

    Best case for Tony and Tim is that they maintain this year’s level of performance. A much more realistic case is that they both drop a bit. That means you need to fortify your frontline and backcourt while staying strong at the wing.

    To me LMA is a good fit ONLY if you keep Splitter. He’s a stretch 4 and not a rim protector. Splitter’s defense is underrated and he’s actually (when healthy) a crafty scorer. Gasol is probably a better fit in that he’s a true 5 that takes the heavy frontcourt D lifting off Tim.

    Either way your probably looking at losing Green. I know Icy/Hot got a bad rap a few games (including from me) - but I think we’ll all realized the value of a great 3D player at the 2. He was far and away our best backcourt defender. With Parker’s D slipping and Patty an average defensive player at best, you can’t afford another liability at the 2.

    I REALLY hate to say this, but I have mixed feelings about Manu insinuating he will come back if Tim does. I love Manu as much as everybody. I LOVE the idea of the the two of them giving it one last run. But he physically seems closer to to the end of the line than Tim. Bringing him back at too high a price could preclude the team from surrounding them with the strongest possible cast. At this point, you hope if they are making a final run they are willing to do it at an even deeper home town discount. But that’s a lot to ask.

    I’m very interested to hear how the cap situation is impacted by the future TV money. Do teams have the opportunity to backload contracts? Are there players out there who may be good options on a short term deal (better on larger money when the cap expands) that would be a good fit?

  • fkj74

    I love you guys at 48. Always check El Conclusion although I watch almost every minute of each game. I would like to see this whole group back with Anderson..but do not think that will happen. But imagine what they could do coming back fresh and healthy.

    We won 55 games in a brutally tough west, with injuries galore. This group could win 60 next year!!

    If not that then ..keep Green, Cory, Bonner, Manu, Tim, Tony, Patty, Anderson, Baynes, Spiltter, Diaw, add a young big man(maybe Brandon Wright, ) then another D first small forward, (Corey Brewer?) I think both Gasol and Aldrige will resign..just too much money on the table. Anyway I wish we were playing , but darn these last 3 seasons were a great ride!! Go Spurs

  • ir0nchef

    Andrew has been lucky enough to enjoy just the championship years. This franchise was actually turned around into what we know and love when David Robinson was drafted. “Big Dave,” as Avery used to call him, was the main reason for the turnaround of the franchise. I’m not just talking about what his play did, I’m talking about how his character shaped the Spurs. D-Rob has stories about the guys who were here before him and they weren’t the most upstanding citizens. The Admiral changed that.

    I’m happier than hell that Andrew has reaped the benefits of being a Spurs fan during the Tim/Manu/Tony era, but just as his son will never know the greatness of Tim/Tony/Manu, he will also never know that the era has no existence without one of the greatest players of all time, David Robinson. He shaped the attitude of the franchise and allowed for some young guy, named Tim Duncan, to be the leader of the team after capturing every individual league award a player could achieve.

    Give me one more damn year of Manu driving through the lane looking like a frog in a blender!

  • cohenbc1

    Three reasons I’m kinda down on the Spurs acquiring Aldridge, especially if it means letting Green go or trading Splitter;
    1. Aldridge takes a ton of shots. As in, 20 per game. This season no Spur even averaged 13 shots. How’s that gonna work?
    2. I keep reading that Aldridge may want out of Portland because the Blazers are now Damian Lillard’s team. Well, guess what? That happened because Lillard is a flat-out winner, who led the Blazers to the second round for the first time in forever. He’s got that thing that Chris Paul has, where if the game is close in the final two minutes, you just know he’s going to make the necessary plays to win. If Aldridge is jealous/resentful of that, instead of grateful to have that in a teammate … he doesn’t sound like a Spur to me. At any rate, he would be the 2nd (if not 3rd or 4th, depending on Timmy and Tony’s health) best player on the Spurs as of right now. Can he handle that?
    3. Aldridge is 30, and it usually takes guys a season or two to fully adapt to the Spurs’ system. Signing big-name free agents at their career peaks just isn’t the way the Spurs do things. I’d feel more comfortable with them spending on an undervalued younger guy (Tobias Harris? Demarre Carroll?) who seems … Spursy.

  • D

    I think we should go after HIbbert instead. his stock has plummeted (which could allow us to bring back everyone except maybe bonner and or baynes) but i think he can revive his career with the help of his homie Tim. Just an example of the many big man consolation prizes that this summer’s FA class has to offer. credit to Tynan for that comprehensive list

  • Spurs fan in Australia

    Actually, I became a Spurs fan because of The Admiral.

    But I do agree, he set the standard and was willing to pass the torch to Duncan which allowed this current era to flourish.

  • Kirkwood

    To quote Stephen Jackson, “Damn. That’s alot of turnovers.”

  • brunostrange

    Hibbert? I’ve seen trees more mobile than him.

  • TD BestEVER

    Keeping Splitter would be a huge mistake. Baynes gives you just about all of what he can and does it for a fraction of the cost and while staying healthy!

  • TD BestEVER

    Counter argument to your 3 points.

    1 - On a team w/o quality scorers every stud will take 20+ shots per game. Portland has no bench and he is there best scorer.

    2. If he leaves Portland it’s mainly because he wants to win, not be the man. He already is the man in Portland. Plus he would be our 2nd best player behind Kawhi, if Kawhi keeps improving on Offense. Then TD/TP.

    3. it doesn’t take shooters long to learn where to get open to shoot. Especially with all the pick and pop plays we can run. Mills, Neal, Green, Marco have all came in and made an impact on the offensive end quickly. Now defense, as long as he is paired with TD I don’t see him being a problem there because he isn’t a poor defender now and will only get better with better guys around him.

    4. My point Tiago is 30 and has never been healthy except his contract year.

  • cohenbc1

    http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/DRPM/position/9

    According to this (centers ranked by defensive plus/minus), Tiago’s much better defensively than Baynes, and slightly better defensively than the exalted Hibbert.

    But wait … http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/ORPM/position/9

    Here’s centers ranked by offensive plus/minus. Turns out Tiago’s also one of 12 centers in the NBA who’s an asset on offense. (The list is stingy with it’s definition of “center.”)

    Which leads to this: http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/rpm/_/sort/RPM/position/9

    Cumulative real plus/minus for centers. Tiago’s #8 in the league. Baynes and Hibbert are right around the break-even point.

    I don’t even know how much I buy into these “advanced stats,” and they don’t take into account sample size, for which Splitter’s was quite small (meaning games played and minutes per game). But in this case it kind of confirms what my eyes told me this season: Tiago is a huge asset defensively, a tremendous passer and is finally figuring out how to give his soft-ass shots a reasonable chance at not only reaching the rim, but actually dropping through that white, lacy thing.

    Baynes works hard on defense, though he certainly can’t guard someone like Griffin the way a healthy Splitter could. And while he *looks* stronger on offense than Tiago, he gets stripped and blocked a lot, and rarely even thinks about making a post-up move on a set defensive player.

  • Gabbo

    Not sure if I agree on Baynes. He was such a defensive liability against the Clippers that he sat the final 5 games…

  • Tyler

    Yeah, I don’t know how you watch Baynes in the LA series and think he’s a suitable replacement for Splitter.

    If you were to add LMA or Gasol, I think it’s more likely that Splitter is moved in a sign and trade rather than Green. I also think that’d be preferable for SA as well considering age and injury history. Having said that, I agree with you that Splitter is very underrated and you certainly don’t trade him just to trade him. I think him not being 100% proved his value in some ways.

    The cap figures going forward are going to re-shape the league in many ways. I think you’ll see a few of the younger and/or mega stars take one year deals this offseason and go back on the market when the cap jumps to $90M. At the same time, I think there are teams due to have cap space this summer looking to preemptively sign long term deals before everyone has space - the Spurs fit that.

    Looking at it in a broader context, cap space will be much less valuable. In a sense, cap space is all relative - it only matters when you compare it to what others have/don’t have. When the cap figure is $100M and every team has space, how really valuable is that, especially for a team like SA?

    Should be an interesting next few years. And that doesn’t even consider another potential lockout after the 2017 season (I think).

  • TD BestEVER

    Their numbers per 36 min are about the same and Tiago plays more with the Starters then with the reserves like Baynes. When you consider that our best 3 players this year were TD, Kawhi, Green. Whoever plays with them will have a much better +/- for the season. But I do think Splitter is a better passer and glue guy as of right now. I think Baynes would close that gap with more time with the starters and is way cheaper.

  • Tyler

    Not a bad buy low candidate….he’s still elite defensively.