Spurs Offseason Guide, Part 1: Feelings of Change During the Summer of Kawhi

by Matthew Tynan

Gregg Popovich’s words during his postseason exit interview didn’t paint a picture reflective of what a Spurs summer typically looks like. Hardly one prone to hyperbole, the coach foreshadowed an offseason of change — the kind San Antonio fans often wish for and, with this team especially, rarely receive.

“We’ve got a pretty good number of free agents, so with R.C. and the coaches and the group we’ve talked about what we want to do going forward with the makeup of the team,” Pop told reporters (h/t Dan McCarney), “but the team will probably look considerably different than it looks this year because we have so many free agents and we want to re-tool a little bit.”

Silver and black brass face major questions, with 10 players heading into free agency in what might be the team’s busiest summer since 2000, when Grant Hill and the Orlando Magic tried to lure Tim Duncan out east to build his legacy in Florida. There have been contractual complications over the years for the Spurs, but nothing that concerned them quite like that franchise tipping point.

Ironically, all these years later, San Antonio finds itself with its toes on the precipice of major change once again, and whatever is to come hinges on a decision from the same Hall-of-Famer — this time, amazingly just months removed from his 39th birthday.

While nothing has been made official, it’s widely believed Duncan will return — something not all that surprising considering the season he just completed. The big story for San Antonio in the coming weeks will revolve around securing young superstar Kawhi Leonard, but the first two dominoes that must fall come in the forms of Duncan and another surefire future Hall-of-Famer, the 38-year-old Manu Ginobili.

The Spurs’ much-publicized cap flexibility and potential resulting pursuit of a max-level player like Marc Gasol or LaMarcus Aldridge, while not inaccurate, was overblown at times over the course of the season. Their ability to clear enough space to make a major splash in free agency depended on a number of major caveats, the largest being the Duncan decision.

Over the weekend, Mike Monroe of the San Antonio Express-News published a column detailing the possible plan for Duncan’s contract situation should he decide to return. Monroe’s sources around the league seem to feel there could be a deal put in place that would allow a pay-cut for the upcoming season while still guaranteeing the kind of cash Timmy deserves, just in a sort of wink-wink contract that would span multiple seasons. Nothing illegal (technically), just smart. This is something they could choose to work through with Manu, too, though given the idea he’d theoretically command a smaller price tag, there may be other options.

But we’ll get into that later. As we wait for the NBA Draft and the free-agency ball to drop, the Spurs prepare for a full plate of summer, starting with the future of the franchise. Will San Antonio’s roster indeed look substantially different for the 2015-16 season, or was that a bit exaggerated? The coming weeks will reveal what’s ahead.

The Summer of Kawhi

When the bully-ball Grizzlies pummeled a beat-up Spurs team in that 2011 first-round ouster, the idea San Antonio would soon find itself in position to smoothly transition from the Duncan era without ever having to visit NBA purgatory (or hell, as it’s called in Philly) was nothing but a pipe dream. As long as the Big 3 were around, the team would continue to win at rates that, barring injury, would likely never allow for a lottery pick so long as they remained effective; and furthermore, there was very little chance to land a big free-agent fish given salary-cap restrictions and the idea the Spurs valued roster continuity over taking any market risks that may have resulted in a big swing-and-a-miss.

Now years later, a draft-night trade that seemed balanced and smart for both teams at the time has manifested into a landscape-altering coup that not only netted the Spurs one of the youngest Finals MVPs ever on top of a handful of prospects, but it allowed Duncan to extend his career into a historical stratosphere few have reached. It’s amazing how quickly things can change.

And while it is Timmy’s decision and ensuing price-tag demands that will set the offseason wheels in motion, it’s very clear where the team’s priorities lie. The Spurs must bridge the gap between the end of Duncan’s career and whatever is next, and that begins with locking Leonard in for the immediate future and beyond.

This is not to say the reigning Defensive Player of the Year is the next Duncan-like legend in the Alamo City. But in a league where swarming mobs of 6’7, long-armed wings are suffocating perimeter threats and outrunning plodding giants, a two-way threat the caliber of Leonard is as valuable as they come.

Unless San Antonio is able to add another discount magic trick to its résumé, Kawhi will be getting a max contract — if not from his current team, from someone else — starting at around $16 million next season. If the Spurs are able to sign him to a maximum-salary deal in this swirling cap climate ahead of the massive influx of television dollars, that 5-year, $90-million accord will be coming straight from the bargain bin by the time 2017 rolls around.

But therein lies the problem. While the prevailing sentiment is that Leonard and agent Brian Elfus want a longterm deal to stick in San Antonio, there’s major incentive for players to take the risk and pursue short-term deals, and it’s easy to understand why: The NBA’s salary cap is expected to jump from a cool $67 million this year to a mind-numbing $108 million for the 2017-18 season. And because max deals are tied directly to the league’s BRI (short for basketball-related income, a number that determines the salary cap), a contract signed two years from now could be exponentially more lucrative.

Free agents could look to sign a two-year deal (possibly with an opt-out heading into the 2016-17 season) and cash out with a longterm contract at that point, but we have yet to see any indication that’s the path Leonard will take.

But what complicates the entire process (in a good way) is the presence of Leonard’s delicious cap hold. Until Leonard inks a contract for previously mentioned maximum salary, he’s only on the books for a measly $7.2 million. And because the Spurs own his Larry Bird rights, allowing them to go over the cap to re-sign their star, the team can use that extra $9 million to pursue other free agents before Kawhi signs on the dotted line. And yet, it might not be that simple.

Outside teams will be trying to break down the door just to sit in the room with Leonard, if only to foil the Spurs’ plan to use cap space to improve the roster before sailing over the cap to sign their small forward. This is a plan that could potentially require patience on the part of Leonard’s camp — as San Antonio conducts its business on the side, it will be mighty difficult to let other offers roll through.

We saw what happened last year between the Rockets and Chandler Parsons, where the Dallas Mavericks swooped in, offered him what was essentially a max deal with a brutal opt-out clause as Houston dipped its toes in other waters, and Daryl Morey was forced to let him walk rather than match the Mavs’ offer sheet Parsons elected to sign, which would’ve devoured all his cap space.

But the Spurs are in a different situation, and if they handle this the right way, all should work out well. Because Leonard was a first-round draft pick, San Antonio has what’s called a “maximum qualifying offer” at its disposal, and the best bet on the board is they will use it by the June 30 deadline¹. By utilizing the MQO, the Spurs can guarantee Kawhi’s camp that he will receive the biggest possible offer, both in terms of contract length and monetary value, and at the same time ensure no outside team can cannonball into the room with a Parsons-like deal.

¹Important to note here: If the Spurs do not submit a qualifying offer by June 30, Leonard would become an unrestricted free agent. It goes without saying, but that is probably not happening. Also important: Once a player signs an offer sheet, the prior team has three days to match.

When a team offers the MQO, any outside offer sheet must be fully guaranteed at max money for at least three years — Parsons’ deal was for two years with an early termination option (ETO) in the third — and cannot include any other options.

And perhaps the best part of this: Even if the Spurs extend the MQO, his original cap hold will maintain its spot on the payroll until a contract is signed. In other words, the cap hold will remain at $7.2 million during Leonard’s restricted free agency — it will not jump to $16 million.

This is the course of action San Antonio will most likely take — it would be a surprise if it’s not, really. The only question remains: Will Kawhi seek a short-term deal in order to chase larger longterm gains? Rumors have consistently denied that he will, but unfortunately for the Spurs, they could be at the mercy of whatever the market dictates.

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Next up, Part 2: The Danny Green Conundrum.