Spurs Offseason Guide, Part 2: The Danny Green Conundrum and What to Do With Tiago Splitter
Here’s the problem with finding a scrap-heap guy and helping him transform into star role player: What was once a cheap contract with gigantic value can quickly become a luxury item that’s played its way out of your price range.
Danny Green’s ascension from the Fred Astaire of the Cleveland Cavaliers’ dancing bench mob to the ranks of the league’s best 3-and-D perimeter players has arguably been one of the most enjoyable reclamation stories in recent years, and it’s played a major part in San Antonio’s enormous success during that time.
Now, he’s about to get paid. Fortunately for the Spurs, his cap-hold situation is very similar to Kawhi Leonard’s, and what’s sure to be a contract pushing eight figures (if not leapfrogging the $10-million range) can be put off until the Spurs have handled other business.
But unlike Leonard, Green is not a restricted free agent, which means the Spurs will not have the right of first refusal. And trust me, he’s going to get a ton of attention. His defensive chops and ability to spread the floor are super valuable in today’s NBA, and while he may fit the Spurs’ system more efficiently than others, his skill sets translate pretty well regardless of style of play.
Make no mistake about it: If the Spurs lose Green, it could be a major loss should they not be able to fill the void with comparable talent.
The league has become a perimeter playground, where rostering two elite defensive players has become damn near a necessity against the likes of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, LeBron James and Kyrie Irving — the list goes on. This is one of the primary reasons for San Antonio’s success since Leonard and Green became the full-time starters at the small forward and shooting guard positions, respectively.
Rarely do you have two interchangeable defensive parts on the perimeter that offers very little drop-off from one player to the next. The Spurs are able to switch liberally in transition defense, eliminating the risk of getting crossed up in an effort to locate an assignment; and on top of that, they’re able to give different looks to offensive players if a sharpshooter is getting too comfortable or a rim-attacker is creating foul trouble.
There is no perfect metric for measuring value in two-man lineups, but the duo of Green and Leonard sit atop or near the top of Spurs’ lineups in both defensive rating and net rating, and is right in there among the elite units in the NBA. Outside of all those pesky combinations the Warriors can unleash on teams, it’s tough to argue for a better defensive duo than the one in San Antonio.
So now the Spurs find themselves between a rock and a hard place. There is absolutely mutual interest between Green and the team, but this is the guard’s best chance at a big payday and a chance to truly secure his future — can’t fault the guy for that. Unless the team finds a way to shed some salary, an eight-figure deal is going to be difficult to shell out, even if Green is patient enough to let San Antonio handle its business before exercising their Bird rights to go over the cap.
Here’s the other thing: Without knowing the futures of Duncan and Ginobili at the moment, it’s difficult to get a real visual of San Antonio’s payroll situation. But, in all likelihood, the team would have to renounce the salaries of Marco Belinelli, Cory Joseph, Aron Baynes, Jeff Ayres, Matt Bonner and Reggie Williams (or most of them, at least) to give itself a legitimate shot to re-sign Green while still allowing for flexibility in the free-agent market.
But that involves a pretty substantial gutting of the roster, and while Pop alluded to a summer of change, it’s tough to imagine major turnover being the best course of action should Duncan want to make one last run. Would taking chances in free agency be worth the risk of sacrificing roster continuity?
Green and Leonard could cost San Antonio as much as $26 million or more this offseason, which would almost assure them of luxury-tax flirtation and a date with the dreaded cap “apron.”
Unless…
Trading Tiago Splitter
Built on the already-powerful foundation of anti-Splitter-ists, the “Trade Tiago” fan club has gained quite a bit of steam in recent weeks. Splitter underperformed this season, mostly due to injuries, and his inability to play extended minutes against a brutal Clippers front line really hurt the Spurs in early May.
Tiago’s value to this team has already been proven, but for some reason there remains a need to reiterate the point: When Splitter is healthy, San Antonio is a monster.
There is no coincidence the Spurs’ best run of the season came with their starting center’s return to the starting lineup. During that time they were decimating opponents by more than 15 points per 100 possessions, while the starting lineup was drubbing its counterparts by a net rating of 30.3 in 200 minutes on the floor together during that time — absolute murder-ball.
More specifically, it’s the pressure he takes off Duncan that makes the biggest difference. The old man no longer has to deal with the NBA’s inside brutes at a weight at least 20 pounds lighter than he carried around during his early years in the league. He’s now able to move more freely from the weak side defensively, saving energy for the offensive end and saving his knees for the postseason, where he has more responsibility.
During the regular season, Splitter took on 20 percent of the opposition’s post-ups while he was on the floor, allowing just .63 points per possession. That’s the second-best mark in the league among big men, just behind Blake Griffin, per Synergy. On the flip side of that, Duncan gave up .94 points per possession on post-ups, a number that sits down in the NBA’s 31st percentile.
And this isn’t an indictment of Duncan. His weight loss several years ago gave new life to his aging game on both sides of the ball, but it’s a physical chore going up against the likes of Boogie Cousins, Blake Griffin, Dwight Howard, and all the other basketball behemoths that league throws at you on a night-to-night basis.
Splitter isn’t just a big body thrown into the scrum to take a beating, either. He’s skilled and physical in fighting for position both before and after the catch, and despite is lack of vertical athleticism, he’s very good at defending the rim without fouling. He’s versatile, too, ranging out to defend the Aldridges and Nowitzkis of the world and rooting his legs on the block against the post-up giants.
And while his back-to-the-basket offensive game is often cringeworthy, featuring an array of shots that sometimes flail like a beachball in the wind, he’s a great pick-and-roll player with excellent touch and quick instincts when he catches the ball in 4-on-3 and 3-on-2 situations. He’s a really good basketball player who’s important to what the Spurs want to do, but I’ve gone on far too long about this — I digress.
While the prospect of losing Splitter concerns me as it relates to Duncan’s longterm health over the course of a season, the idea of letting Green walk is something I find quite a bit more worrisome, especially with Tiago’s injury issues over the years. The NBA has gone small, and while there’s still huge value in size and front-court depth, deploying a center-center combination up front (which is basically what the Spurs have when Duncan and Splitter share the court) is quickly becoming dangerous against a league that’s firing 3s from four and even five positions on the floor.
And San Antonio has shown the damage it can do with Boris Diaw at the four. He’s got range all the way to the 3-point line on both sides of the ball, and still maintains the healthy figure to deal with some bumping and grinding on the block.
Most importantly, finding a way to unload Splitter’s $8.5 million salary on a team that could absorb it and get a $0 return — hey there, Atlanta Hawks and Coach Bud! — would open up a lot of possibilities for San Antonio in free agency. It could then mess around on the open market and still look to bring back some of its own, more inexpensive free agents. Not to mention, moving Tiago would also create an extra cushion that would make re-signing both Leonard and Green more of a possibility.
I really hate saying it, but this might be the way to go. Splitter is very valuable, but he’s not indispensable; and if the Spurs can find a way to replace his cap hit with more length and athleticism on the perimeter and still find a way to bring in another big body, it’s probably for the best.
It won’t be easy. Unloading contracts, even when attached to useful players, is a difficult task without attaching picks and/or prospects in the deal, and it may take multiple teams to get it done. San Antonio has been very careful with its picks and doesn’t owe anything to anybody at this point, so there may be possibilities there.
Regardless, if this team is to look “considerably different” next season, moving Splitter would be a major step in that direction.
