Spurs Offseason Guide, Part 3: The LaMarcus Aldridge Plan of Attack

by Matthew Tynan

A look ahead at the Spurs’ upcoming dive into free agency reads more like a choose-your-own-adventure book than a concrete road map. There are almost too many different “if this, then that — if that, then this” scenarios in play for San Antonio to outline all possibilities, but I’m not sure any of you care about anything more than the power forward elephant in the room.

There have been whispers for months that the Alamo City is one of, if not the preferred destination for Trail Blazers free agent big man LaMarcus Aldridge. Blustering clouds of smoke are common atmospheric elements in the winds of free agency, and you’ve got to take any rumor with a grain of salt; but the LMA-to-SA conversation has been consistent, and Yahoo! Sports reported last night that the Spurs are sending a heavy-hitting trio of Gregg Popovich, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker to Los Angeles to visit Aldridge and pitch to him the idea of playing alongside them in San Antonio.

By now you’ve almost assuredly heard, read and talked about all the different possibilities intertwined in this free-agent pursuit. The fact is, with all the salary-cap gymnastics required to pull this off, combing through the complexities in a deep dive might not be worth the headache.

The common sentiment has been, “Should the Spurs sign Aldridge, they’ll risk losing both Tiago Splitter and Danny Green in the process.” All things considered, this is certainly a possibility given all the money it will require to obtain the services of LMA and retain those of Green. But I don’t believe San Antonio will let it get that far. Yes, luring Aldridge would be a big get, but losing the other two may damage the defense enough to make the trade hardly worth it.

So how can the Spurs bring in Aldridge and keep Danny Green? There are a number of ways, but really one that makes the most sense.

First of all, as the San Antonio Express-News reported yesterday, it does not appear as if a sign-and-trade involving Aldridge is in the offing. But that’s OK, there are other ways to do it. As I wrote about last week, the first piece that must fall is the Tim Duncan domino. He must decide whether or not a return is worth it (at this point, it really seems he’ll be back), and what sort of pay-cut he’d absorb to do so — and it may have to be substantial.

Now, there are loopholes that would allow Duncan to return for a comically low salary, perhaps even the veteran minimum, which comes in at about $1.5 million but counts for just $950,000 against the cap (there are rules put in place by the CBA that give teams cap-relief incentive to sign veterans, rather than simply pursuing cheaper, younger talent at every turn). And still, I’d be very surprised if he elected to take such a number.

Regardless, this is the first step. And if the Spurs are able to convince him to take a lot less, that puts them in a great spot to continue their pursuit of LMA for max money. Second, it might be best to simply renounce the rights to Manu Ginobili, even if he intends to play. You’ll also, in all likelihood, be forced to renounce the rights to all other free agents (Marco Belinelli, Jeff Ayres, Reggie Williams, Matt Bonner, Aron Baynes and Cory Joseph) and save the “Room” Exception for Ginobili if you plan on offering the max to Aldridge.

Because the Spurs would drop under the cap to go after LaMarcus, they’d lose their Midlevel and Bi-Annual Exceptions. Therefore, the $2.8 million “Room” Exception is all they’d have at their disposal.

The next step: Find a home for Splitter without taking any money back in return. This is where things might get interesting. The Spurs would have to find a team willing to take on Tiago’s contract, and in return for being a dumping ground — Splitter is valuable, but maybe not necessarily to a non-contender with cap space to give — teams may ask for the rights to a Spurs prospect and/or draft picks in return. San Antonio has stocked up on as many assets as possible and held onto them over the years, so this might be possible.

In this case, it would probably be worth it. With all the previously mentioned moves, Tiago’s contract is big enough to create enough space for a max-level free agent at 30 percent of the BRI.

Let’s say Duncan signs on for $4,000,000 to play the 2015-16 season, the Spurs renounce the rights to Manu, Belly, Ayres, Baynes, Joseph, Bonner and Williams — you’d better be DAMN sure this is what you want to do, because that’s some serious roster-gutting — and then trade Splitter for nothing but maybe a future draft pick, then you’d be sitting at about $19 million in space under the projected $67.1 million cap, even with incomplete-roster charges included (essentially, these are cap holds for unfilled roster spots worth about $525,000).

Guess what a max contract for LMA would cost? Just about $18.9 million. You’ve done it! But now what?

Here is the part where the Bird Rights for Leonard and Green come in. Because San Antonio owns these rights, they can go over the cap to re-sign them, and here they are, less than a million bucks away from that line. Now, there will still be a reasonable limit for Green, but if you make all these moves, you might consider making the leap.

A max contract for Leonard is going to hit at the $15.8 million mark, and by all conversation with a source very near to that situation, it’s not going to be an issue. Kawhi wants security and he enjoys San Antonio, and he doesn’t appear to be interested in chasing the short-term deal other free agents are pursuing — this should go off without too much complication.

Then there’s Green. Given the current climate surrounding elite “3-and-D” players in this league, he’s likely going to command eight figures. It’s almost a certainty someone will fork that kind of cash over in an offering. And so I’m just going to throw this out there: Let’s say the Spurs offer him $10 million. That at least puts them well within the conversation, and as much as Green has enjoyed his time in San Antonio, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest he’d feel compelled to take that deal, even if it’s for a bit less than other markets may offer. But who knows? It will require patience on his part to allow the Spurs to conduct their business with Aldridge or whichever other target might pop up before they circle around back to him. Those offers will be flying in, and Green needs to do what’s best for him and his earning potential. Still, he should be able to see the game plan unfolding in front of him without feeling threatened the Spurs might renege on their offer. They own his Bird Rights after all, so it’s not like they can go chase someone else to put in his place, nor is this the year to skimp on a potential tax bill with the cap-splosion ahead.

So, with every situation above taken into account, including Manu’s “Room” Exception, the Spurs now sit with nine players under contract, and still remain $1-2 million below the luxury-tax threshold. And imagine if Duncan does take the minimum — that might allow for them to swing a deal with one of the previously renounced free agents before cruising past the salary cap. They also avoid the “apron” in this scenario — $4 million over the tax line — allowing for in-season flexibility.

(This is exhausting.)

A roster of Parker, Mills, Ginobili, Green, Leonard, Diaw, Aldridge, Duncan and Kyle Anderson is pretty nice, but you’ve still got to consider whether or not the whole thing is worth it. Yes, you can go bring back Matt Bonner for the minimum, and there will likely be free agents willing to take a minimum contract to play alongside those guys in San Antonio, but that’s a lot of turnover to deal with and a lot of questions to answer.

It’s important to keep in mind, however: San Antonio has rarely been a free-agent destination — for a number of reasons. They don’t often have the luck of the draw, where the big name in question just so happens to be from your state and has a lot of interest in your team. This might be the time to pounce, where Duncan is still playing at a high level, and your own max free agent will be around for years to come.

The Spurs have planned ahead for quite some time in preparation for this summer. If ever there was a time to move, it might be now. But lest we forget, that team was pretty damn good last season, and they can bring the gang back together again with a few additional pieces sprinkled in if they’d like.

Is it time to arrange the big transition from one era to another, or is the massive cap-space explosion looming on the horizon enough to convince this front office to just hold off another year? Hell, what’s the best way to do both? Can’t we have our cake and eat it, too?

We’re about to find out — starting tonight.

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