Run at a Repeat: Questions for the 2014-15 Season
Yes, the season may have only ended last Thursday-ish (or somewhere around there) but Title Defense: Part 5 has begun for this Spurs franchise, so it’s now time to ramp things up once again here at 48 Minutes of Hell. We’ve been lazy. Sorry. Well, everyone except the newest guys, so I’ve enlisted them to answer a few questions about the upcoming season in San Antonio, and they’ve kindly offered up some predictions and answered questions regarding Aron Baynes and whether or not his diet consists of small human beings.
So, Trevor and Caleb…
Favorite offseason storyline…go!
Trevor Zickgraf: NBA? How the East keeps getting incrementally better. The Cavs obviously made a leap, but Chicago may finally have the offense to back up their defense. The Southeast Division might have four teams that win between 52 and 42 games. Spurs-wise: Um… Boris Diaw’s Instagram account was great this summer.
Caleb Saenz: As much as I want to say the Spurs’ Trophy Tour (which I chronicled earlier), I have to go with LeBron James’ decision to return to Cleveland. Spurs fans got upset during the offseason when the storyline of the summer became the new NBA superpower in Cleveland, blaming the changing spotlight on disrespect for San Antonio. But the truth is the Spurs made this story happen. James’ Finals exit was so swift and so severe that it left an MVP-sized crater in Miami, and his decision to return to Cleveland affected the entire league like no other story this offseason.
The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook has opened its gambling doors for the NBA season, and the Spurs have been pegged at 56.5 wins, which would be a 5.5-game drop from the 62 wins of a year ago. So, fellas, over or under?
TZ: Barely over. Not to oversimplify things, but winning 60 games is hard. However, I think this team is going to hit the ground running because it’s bringing everyone back. As long as there isn’t complacency, we could see a hot start. Still, 60 wins in the West in back-to-back seasons is asking a lot.
CS: I’m taking the over. People forget that last year’s team put up 62 wins amid a season marred by some key injuries. Ginobili, Parker, Leonard, Green, and Splitter all sat for big stretches, and still the Spurs finished the season with the league’s best record. With continuity on their side and the rest of the West more of a question mark than last year, I see the Spurs finishing the season with a cool 60 wins, good for the conference’s top seed.
True or False: We are about to witness the final NBA seasons for Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan.
TZ: If Duncan looks great again I could see him playing another year past this one. Manu is trickier because his health is always more of a toss-up, but either way I don’t think we’re about to see the last 100 games or so of Duncan’s career.
CS: Half-true. I think this is the final year for Ginobili, who has been speaking about retirement in much starker terms than Duncan since the Spurs’ unceremonious Finals exit in 2013. Of the two, Ginobili seems to be the most at peace with the quickly approaching end of his professional career. I think he announces it pre-playoffs, too. Duncan, though, is a tougher call, and other than the brief mention he made of considering retirement this offseason, he’s appeared annoyed when asked about ending his career. I think he signs a one-year deal this offseason to make the 2015-2016 season his last.
If true, then True or False: You will cry.
TZ: (Not available for comment.)
CS: Yes, I will cry. I just had a baby, and I am still an emotional wreck.
Which would you rather: Spurs repeat and Duncan/Ginobili retire, or Spurs fall short but Duncan/Ginobili return?
TZ: I’d rather have them repeat and retire. When the Spurs won in ’03 and David Robinson retired I thought it was perfect. Then again, he was a shell of himself. Anyway, the Spurs have never repeated, so that’s my main motivation. Additionally, Duncan and Manu’s departure would make the summer of 2015 and beyond incredibly intriguing. How would the Spurs build around a TP/Kawhi led team. Do they reload? Do they tank a year and reload the following year with a high draft pick? OK, the second one is unlikely, but it’d be the most interesting summer since the Spurs almost got Jason Kidd.
CS: “Welcome to 48 Minutes of Hell. Are you crying yet?” Neither of these options are particularly fun to think about, but pressed to make a choice, I’d have to go with the Spurs repeating and Duncan and Ginobili retiring. The very idea of both of them leaving is enough to make any NBA fan cringe, but the reality is they’re going to retire soon. Why wouldn’t you want it to be under the happiest circumstances possible? It would be fitting, too, for Duncan and Ginobili to follow the tradition David Robinson started, pulling a Costanza and going out on top.
OK back to Happytown… One thing the Spurs have never done is repeat, but do they have a better shot to do so this season than they did before their previous title defenses in 2000, ’04, ’06, and ’08?
TZ: I’d say the full roster coming back is one reason to think they’ll have a better chance at repeating. Kawhi’s continued development is another reason. Finally, the rest of the West didn’t get much better. OKC added one shooter. Clippers got a little better but the East is where teams really improved and I still think the Spurs are better.
CS: The Spurs have their best shot at repeating this season. It won’t be easy, but the stage is set for them to have the clearest path to a consecutive championship. Year 2000 saw Tim Duncan resting during the playoffs to recover from injury; 2004 saw significant roster turnover; 2008 saw an aging core playing an antiquated brand of basketball with no signs of help coming. The closest the team’s been to a repeat was 2006, but I think this season’s team is better equipped with more promising internal developments to a better balanced squad.
Who makes the biggest leap this season? Who drops off the most?
TZ: Biggest leap? Kawhi’s the easy answer, but I’m going with Cory Joseph. Patrick Thrills is out until probably the Rodeo Road Trip, so the minutes will be there for CoJo. Also, contract year. Drop off? I’m going Marco Belinelli simply because I want to be ahead of every other blogger on making that joke. I’m actually going with Patty Mills, but only because he might not be fully healed even when he returns and will have to knock some rust off no matter what.
CS: I can see picking Cory Joseph, who will spend half the season as the designated backup point guard, but Kawhi Leonard is looking at the year’s biggest leap. Leonard’s likely to improve naturally, with another season and playoff run under his belt, but he doesn’t seem content with a passive approach, requesting off of Team USA this summer to recover and work on his game (apparently adding a smooth fadeaway to his arsenal). Additionally, Popovich has said that this season he’ll be calling on Leonard for specific plays. Natural progression, new skills, increased responsibility – my money’s on a big season.
Who or what are you most curious about?
TZ: I’m going to cheat here and say I’m most curious to see if, when Kyle Anderson does get playing time, he’s put in a Boris Diaw role, at least on offense. He’s such a smart player and willing passer — I really can’t wait to see him in action.
CS: Last season, Boris Diaw provided an inspired showcase of his unique skillset, befuddling defenders, dishing pinpoint passes, and shooting often. Popovich jokingly credited Diaw’s newfound aggression to a visit to an Indian guru. A better explanation might have been that it was a contract year. Now on the other side of the offseason, Diaw has his contract and his title. The only question left: does he have his motivation? The Spurs included weight/shape incentives into his contract, but I’m curious to see if Diaw approaches this season with the same mindset that made last year such a success for him.
OK, some prop bets — How many Spurs will make the All-Star team this season, and who will it be? Will Tony Parker be the team’s leading scorer again? Will the Spurs make a trade this year? What will we see more of: Ayres dropped passes or Splitter missed lay-ups? Can/does Aron Baynes hunt animals with his bare hands AND/OR does he eat small humans for sustenance.
TZ: I’m going 2 All-Stars here. It’ll be some combo of TP, Duncan and Kawhi. Tough to see Kawhi and Duncan both getting front court spots, but injuries, Duncan getting a “one last hurrah” spot nod from the coaches could come into play here.
Tony will lead the Spurs in scoring again.
I foresee a minor trade with the Spurs picking up a back up small forward not named Austin Daye, or another point guard if Thrillions’ rehab has some bumps in the road.
More Splitter bricked lay-ups total, more Ayres dropped passes per 36 minutes.
True story: Aron Baynes was pissed when he found out Manu didn’t eat the bat he knocked out of the air a couple years ago. Like didn’t comprehend how you don’t eat what you kill.
CS: Kawhi will get the final Forward spot on the All-Star team and be the only Spur to make the cut, benefitting from Kevin Love’s move. Parker, who will lead the Spurs in scoring, will not make the team, as Russell Westbrook takes his spot.
Unless the Spurs suffer a significant injury, I don’t see a trade happening.
We’ll see more Ayres dropped passes. (But we’ll see some really bad missed dunks from Splitter, and each one will make a great GIF.)
Baynes only kills for sustenance, but like a tiger shark, he will eat anything he finds.
Trying to forecast what will happen over the course of an 82-game schedule is almost always a fool’s errand. But having said that, please forecast what’s going to happen during the 2014-15 NBA season. Will the Spurs repeat? What’s your prediction?
TZ: Prediction: 59-23, repeat as champs by beating the Bulls in the Finals.
CS: Benefitting from the dismantling of a former Eastern powerhouse and injury-related question marks in the West, the Spurs will start quick and use an infusion of coaching talent to strategize for a new season. Continuity and internal progress will be their greatest ally, and after a fiercely competitive playoffs, this will finally be the season where the Spurs repeat as champions. Obviously, other teams have great shots at winning the title, but at this point, the likeliest scenario seems to be the Spurs bringing home their sixth Larry O’Brien trophy.
Also, give me one sizzling, scalding, burning hot take.
TZ: Oh, HOT SPURZZZZZ TAKE: Belinelli repeats as 3-point shootout champ, is then part of a trade package a week later at the trade deadline.
CS: Neither LeBron James nor Kevin Durant will win the MVP this year. Voters have always been consumed with story, and the creation of a super-team in Cleveland and Durant’s injury will sap the two major MVP storylines for the season, leaving a void for a different player to fill. I’m not sure who that player will be (Anthony Davis? Chris Paul?), but I think this is the season where someone new gets to give the speech (and create a meme).
