Advanced Scouting: Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs
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Chicago Bulls at San Antonio Spurs 8:30 CST November 17, 2010
Chicago: 3.51 (9th)
San Antonio: 7.07 (4th)
Key Player Statistics (courtesy of 82games.com (effective November 11, 2010) and basketballvalue.com:
Chicago Bulls Player Ratings
| Player | Percentage of teams minutes | PER minus Counterpart PER | Last Year Net PER | Off court +/-per 48 minutes | Off court +/-per 48 minutes | 2 Year Adjusted +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah | 0.82 | 8 | 2.3 | 6 | -28.1 | -1.17 |
| Gibson | 0.62 | 10.7 | -3.3 | 3.7 | -6 | 4.43 |
| Bogans | 0.52 | -4.4 | -6.6 | 14.6 | -15.6 | -1.75 |
| Rose | 0.77 | -3.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | -7.9 | -3.99 |
| Deng | 0.76 | 3.2 | 4.6 | -1.7 | 5.4 | 4.59 |
| Watson | 0.23 | 1.4 | -2.1 | -8.6 | 2.5 | 2.51 |
| Asik | 0.29 | -12.6 | N/A | 1.1 | -0.5 | N/A |
| Korver | 0.41 | -9.8 | 1.7 | -1.6 | 1.1 | 2.56 |
| Brewer | 0.25 | 1.3 | 0.5 | -26.4 | 8.7 | -6.53 |
Spurs castaway Keith Bogans has played significant minutes for the Bulls up to this point in the season. It’s interesting that the Bulls have performed drastically better with him on the floor this year, but it’s important to remember that we are only 9 games into the season and on-court/off-court numbers tend to be very inconsistent.
K. Bogans, L. Deng, J. Noah, D. Rose, T. Gibson +59 in 136 Minutes
Preferred method to create shots: Pick and Roll
Last year the Bulls relied heavily on the Derrick Rose running the pick and roll, and with good success. The Bulls scored 98 points per 100 pick and roll possessions that started with Rose handling the ball. This ranked in the 71st percentile for NBA teams.
In the offseason, the Bulls made significant offensive acquisitions in Carlos Boozer and Kyle Korver. They have more efficient scoring options than last year, especially once Boozer makes his return/debut, but Rose will likely remain the offensive catalyst. This article illustrates one of the Bulls changes in offensive focus.
Appropriate Spurs counter: George Hill and defensive help on drives
George Hill and Tony Parker were the primary defenders of Derrick Rose last year. George Hill is likely the best matchup against Derrick Rose, but few, if any, players are capable of effectively staying in front of this athletic freak. Limiting his effectiveness will take smart defensive help. Although Rose’s assist totals are up this year, his turnovers have also increased and his assists tend to be less valuable than other all-star point guards. Assists on close shots and dunks are significantly more valuable than assists on jump shots. This year, about 31% of Rose’s assists are on close shots. By comparison, about 52% of Steve Nash’s assists are on close shots. Double teaming Rose can often result in turnovers and when it doesn’t; Rose’s passes aren’t among the most lethal you will find (but it should go without saying that Korver’s defender should not be quick to help).
Usually, a smart game plan against someone with Rose’s explosiveness is to entice them to shoot jump shots. However, despite Rose’s career three point percentage of under 25% and his mediocre free throw rate, he was very successful on 2 point jumpers last year (compared to the rest of the league) at nearly 47%. Despite this, I would prefer nearly any opponent not named Derek Fisher to take more two point jump shots than close shots.
Defensive Weakness: Exploit Luol Deng on the pick and roll
After helping turn around the Celtics defensive performance, many expect(ed) the Bulls to show vast improvements defending the rim in 2011. Thus far, the Bulls have climbed to 7th in the NBA in defensive rating after ranking 11th last year. (A side note relating to the link, the Bulls ranked right around average in defending pick and roll ball handlers in 2010.)
Luol Deng has been a very good isolation perimeter defender over the last couple years. His opponents rates of 0.73 and 0.84 points per possession ranked in the 83rd and 56th percentiles in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Despite his success in one of the NBA’s most significant and high profile situations, Deng has struggled against the pick and roll, allowing 0.95 and 0.92 points per possession and ranking in the 10th and 36th percentiles in 2009 and 2010.
In 2010, Deng predominantly defended Richard Jefferson, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker. The Spurs can exploit Deng’s weakness by running Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili off of pick and rolls when he is matched up against them. When the Bulls use Deng to defend RJ, isolation plays for Ginobili and Parker become more enticing.
Conclusion
The Spurs have enjoyed a sterling start to their season. Coming off of 2 days rest, they have a very good opportunity to continue their winning ways when the Bulls come to town.
Other things to watch for
*The Spurs are running more this season than in previous seasons. This season, San Antonio ranks fourth in the NBA with 19.8 fastbreak points per game.
San Antonio Spurs
Last 5 Years
FB PPG NBA Rank
2010-11 19.8 4
2009-10 12.5 23
2008-09 9.4 28
2007-08 9.5 24
2006-07 11.6 19
(information courtesy of NBA Statistics and Information Research)
*The Spurs can tie the team record if they win for the 9th time in 10 games. The last time the Spurs won 9 of their first 10 games was in 1982. That team finished 48-34 before being eliminated in the second round by the LA Lakers.
*Tim Duncan will tie the David Robinson as the all time Spurs record for games played tonight. Duncan is off to a slow start, but is within 38 points away from breaking David Robinson’s the Spurs NBA scoring record. With 20,762 career points, he still has some work to catch George Gervin’s ABA/NBA franchise mark of 23,602.
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