Advanced Scouting: Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs
Dallas Mavericks at San Antonio Spurs 7:00 CST January 14, 2011
Two weeks ago, San Antonio held off the Dallas Mavericks 99-93. Before that game, Dirk Nowitzki was listed as day-to-day, and little has changed in Dirkâ€™s injury status. My write-up discussed strategy if Dirk is unable to play.
Gary Neal nailed five treys on his way to 21 points. For Dallas, Jason Kidd notched yet another triple-double. Overall, Coach Popovich was not impressed with the win, saying “We didn’t show very much. We didn’t improve as a team, that’s for sure.”
Caron Butler led Dallas in scoring with 30 points on 21 shots. However, Butler injured his knee the next game and will miss the remainder of the season. In his absence, DeShawn Stevenson has seen an increase in playing time. Stevenson is a 3-point specialist who scores 75% of his points on 3′s.
In the December 30th matchup, the Mavs ran 23 pick-and-roll plays, resulting in 22 points. Jason Terry ran 10 pick-and-rolls, but Dallas only scored five points out these possessions. The Spurs ran 27 pick-and-rolls themselves, leading to 35 points. Parker was particularly effective with 16 points on 12 possessions (six points by way of passing). Ginobili contributed eight points on nine pick-and-rolls.
Four of Neal’s five 3-pointers were categorized as “spot-up” possessions. Spot-ups are generally created from kick-outs when the defender leaves his man to help on the ball. As great as Neal has been for the Spurs this season, they shouldn’t rely on such a high level of production this time out.
The Spurs were only able to score 10 points on fast breaks, this is down from their average of 16 per game (Not coincidentally, Tony Parker accounted for their only two steals). The Mavs are a mediocre team defending the transition and the Spurs should look to push the ball more in this game.
Dallas: 4.29 (7th)
San Antonio: 7.68 (1st)
|Player||Fraction of teams minutes||PER minus Counterpart PER||On court +/-per 48 minutes||Off court +/-per 48 minutes||2 Year Adjusted +/-|
Kidd, Stevenson, Butler, Nowitzki, Chandler +111 in 257 minutes (+20.7 per 48 minutes)
Kidd, Terry, Butler, Marion, Chandler +11 in 91 minutes (+5.8 per 48)
Kidd, Terry, Stevenson, Marion, Chandler +3 in 77 minutes (+1.9 per 48)
If Dirk is able to go, which seems unlikely at this point, the game could be hotly contested. The Spurs would be favored either way, but if Nowitzki doesn’t play, the Spurs have a great chance to extend their division lead to seven games.
[Update: Dirk is out tonight.]