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San Antonio Spurs at Detroit Pistons 6:30 CST February 8, 2011

SRS ranks:

Detroit: -3.71 (24th)
San Antonio: 7.16 (1st)

Key Player Statistics (courtesy of 82games.com (effective January 19, 2011) and basketballvalue.com (effective February 6, 2011):

Player	Fraction of teams minutes	PER minus Counterpart PER	On court +/-per 48 minutes	Off court +/-per 48 minutes	2 Year Adjusted +/-
Prince	0.67	4.4	-4.2	-4	0.9
Stuckey	0.57	1.6	-3.4	-5	2.5
Gordon	0.56	0.1	-0.3	-9.1	-0.2
Villanueva	0.52	-4.3	-0.8	-7.7	-5.4
Hamilton	0.44	-0.2	-9.6	0.2	-7.7
Monroe	0.44	-4.4	-5.2	-3.3	-1.1
McGrady	0.42	2.7	-3.3	-4.7	0.2
Wallace	0.42	-4.2	-8.3	-1	1.3
Maxiell	0.28	-13	-5.3	-3.7	-1.6
Bynum	0.25	-6.7	-3.5	-4.3	-4.9
Daye	0.25	-4.4	-9.9	-2.2	-4.5

Most valuable/utilized lineups:

Stuckey, Hamilton, Prince, Maxiell, Wallace -32 in 173 minutes (-8.9 per 48 MP)
Stuckey, McGrady, Prince, Wilcox, Monroe +9 in 122 minutes (+3.5 per 48 MP)
Stuckey, Gordon, Prince, Villanueva, Wallace +24 in 94 minutes (+12.3 per 48)
Gordon, McGrady, Prince, Wallace, Monroe +18 in 55 minutes (+15.7 per 48)

Preferred method to create shots: Ben Gordon on Isolations

The Pistons run a lot of isolations (more than 16% of possessions). Tayshaun Prince, Tracy McGrady, Rodney Stuckey are all utilized with reasonable effectiveness in this role, but Ben Gordon has been the Piston’s best scorer on such plays. Although his scoring rates have dropped since coming to Detroit, Gordon continues to be a dangerous shooter who is able to create scoring attempts nearly at will. On isolations, the Pistons rank 12th in the NBA with 0.85 points per possession (PPP) and Gordon averages 1.06 PPP himself (10th in the NBA). Gordon also averaged 1.02 PPP on isolations last year.

Tayshaun Prince, historically known as a defensive specialist, has been the Pistons leading scorer this season and has been utilized on more isolations and post ups than any other Piston. Gordon and Hamilton are also effective coming off screens. Stuckey, Prince and Gordon all look to score on the break.

Despite having some ability to create for himself, Charlie Villanueva has basically turned into a spot up shooter with 3 point range, shooting over 37% on 4.5 attempts per game. Greg Monroe and Ben Wallace both fight hard for offensive rebounds.

Appropriate Spurs counter: Play the three against Gordon and defend patiently

Ben Gordon derives most of his value from creating shots from deep. He can take reasonably efficient shots at almost any point and just a couple years ago he showed no interest in being selective about them. Although he attempted predominantly long twos and threes and had a usage rate of 25-30%, Gordon took nearly all of these shots early in the shot clock. Teams usually prefer open threes and layups early in the clock, while contested jumpers (being the easiest to create with the lowest efficiency) are reserved for the end of the clock. Despite this tendency, Gordon never took more than 10% of his attempts in the last 4 seconds of the clock during his tenure with the Bulls. However, in Detroit Gordon has attempted around 18% of his attempts late in the clock. Although these shots aren’t preferred, Gordon is a good player to take them. This is part of the reason his offensive rating is lower than it was in Chicago.

Although Gordon has shown more discretion with his shot selection, he doesn’t finish inside at a high rate and will take long two frequently. The closer Gordon gets to the basket, the less efficient he becomes (relative to average). Basically, if the Spurs take away the three and don’t provide an open lane, they can limit his offensive value. Additionally, Gordon is not an effective passer. Most of his turnovers are of the passing variety, despite assisting on just 3 scores per 36 minutes. Gordon commits passing turnovers more frequently than he creates assists on easy (or close) baskets.

The Pistons seem to have a very conservative offense. Despite running a lot of isolations, the Pistons rank 28th in free throws made per field goal attempt. Although the team doesn’t have an elite passer and rank in the bottom 10 in both assist rate and three point rate, they turn the ball over at a the lowest rate in the NBA. They often times take too long to get off a good shot, attempting 23% of their field goals in the last 4 seconds of the shot clock (opponents only take 14% of field goals in the last 4 seconds). Predictably, their efficiency suffers on these late attempts. It should pay off if the Spurs play patient defense against them.

Spurs offensive game plan: Run the pick and roll and post up frequently

The Pistons rank 29th defending the pick and roll (0.89 PPP) and 22nd in plays finished by the roll man (1.06). Gordon (0.93), Stuckey (0.93), Bynum (0.95) and Hamilton (0.92) all allow high scoring rates on these plays in the last two seasons. Ginobili, Parker and Hill can all look to attack on the pick and roll; but Blair and especially Duncan could pay big dividends as the roll man.

Villanueva struggles against post ups (1.01 PPP in the last two years) and Stuckey has also been beat on the blocks in the past (0.93 PPP).

Gordon is the Pistons weakest defender against isolations (0.91 PPP) and, although these plays are more difficult to find, Hamilton gives up a lot of points against players running off screens (1.12). Tim Duncan could see a number of good looks against Villanueava in the post.

Detroit ranks 25th in the NBA in defensive rebound percentage. Detroit also ranks 25th defending the post (0.92 PPP). Additionally, teams are able to create fast breaks, scoring 17.6 PPG despite playing at the slowest pace in the NBA. Although Detroit may not present many opportunities for very easy scores off turnovers the Spurs should look to run when the opportunity presents itself.

The Pick

Spurs

The Spurs are 42-8 and show little sign of slowing down. Although the next week features many weak opponents, 4 road games in 5 nights is never easy. Getting out to a big start could be important to get the veterans rested. Coach Pop might rest some of the older players later in this road stretch, but it would be nice if he could do it in games after the outcome is already decided.