Advanced Scouting: San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors

by Scott Sereday

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors 9:30 CST January 24, 2011

The Spurs have two wins against the Warriors this season. Tim Duncan notched a triple double in a 118-98 victory on November 30 and the Spurs overcame eight 3’s from Reggie Williams en route to a 111-94 win on December 8.

Although the Spurs have had an easy time against Golden State to this point, the Warriors have played much better lately, winning 10 of their last 16 games. Some adjustments must be made to account for the Warriors improvements; be sure to read my scouting report of the Golden State Warriors if you haven’t already.

The Warriors are still last in the NBA in free throw attempts drawn, but they have taken and converted a higher rate of 3-point attempts in recent games. Dorell Wright, Monta Ellis, Stephen Curry, Reggie Williams and Vladimir Radmanovich are all outside options that must be accounted for. The Warriors guards have also improved taking care of the ball, reducing their turnover rate. When the Warriors passed out the pick-and-roll over the last 16 games, they have scored 1.14 points per possession (PPP) . This rate dwarfs their season average of 0.89 PPP.

David Lee has improved his production running the pick-and-roll and converting easy buckets. Lee has averaged over eight points per game on either cuts, or as the roll man in the pick-and-roll. Golden State finds few easy scores in the half court set outside of Lee.

The Warriors success on catch-and-shoot jumpers varies greatly depending on whether the attempt was contested or not. No team averages more than their 1.33 points per shot on unguarded jumpers. However, the Warriors only score a sub-standard 0.90 points per shot on contested jumpers. The Spurs need to be more hesitant than in previous games trying to force the Warriors to get rid of the ball and they should be close enough to all shooters to contest all kick-outs.

Statistics from previous Warriors-Spurs meetings

Tony Parker led 21 pick-and-roll possessions over both games against the Warriors this season. The Warriors have defended this play well throughout the season, Parker’s 21 such plays resulted in 25 points. Manu Ginobili has also created 17 points in the 13 pick-and-rolls he led. George Hill’s 12 pick-and-rolls have led to only six points.

Tony Parker scored 11 points in 14 transition opportunities. All other Spurs combined to score 40 points in 29 possessions. Posting up Tim Duncan resulted in 13 points in 12 possessions.

For the Warriors, Monta Ellis has created 15 points in the 30 pick-and-roll plays. Stephen Curry has only modestly more success in the pick-and-roll, with 16 points in 22 possessions. The 32 plays the Warriors passed out of the pick-and-roll resulted in 16 points.

Key Statistics

SRS ranks:

Golden State: -2.93 (22nd)
San Antonio: 7.41 (1st)

Key Player Statistics (courtesy of 82games.com (effective January 19, 2011) and basketballvalue.com (effective January 22, 2011):

Most valuable/utilized lineups:

Curry,Ellis,D.Wright,Lee,Biedrins +54 in 293 Minutes (8.8 per 48 MP)

The Pick

Spurs.

This game should be a lot tougher than the previous meetings. With the Warriors adapting to Coach Keith Smart’s half court offense and David Lee making significant contributions, this one could present a significant challenge. Even so, the Warriors still aren’t in the same class as the Spurs, despite having home court advantage.