Advanced Scouting: Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs

by Scott Sereday

Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs 7:30 CST January 29, 2011

SRS ranks:

Houston: 0.69 (12th)
San Antonio: 7.45 (1st)

Key Player Statistics (courtesy of 82games.com (effective January 19, 2011) and basketballvalue.com (effective January 28, 2011):

Player	Fraction of teams minutes	PER minus Counterpart PER	On court +/-per 48 minutes	Off court +/-per 48 minutes	2 Year Adjusted +/-
Scola	0.69	1	3.2	-5.7	-2.7
Battier	0.64	-2.6	1.7	-2	2.6
Martin	0.62	9.3	0.8	-0.4	-2.5
Lowry	0.62	-1.8	3.1	-4.2	5.8
Lee	0.39	0.6	-1	1.3	-2.1
Hayes	0.37	-4.8	1.6	-0.3	5.0
Hill	0.36	-6.1	-7.8	5	-6.7
Budinger	0.35	1.2	0.8	0.1	0.5
Miller	0.33	0.7	0.5	0.3	-0.8
Brooks	0.22	-0.6	-3.4	1.4	-2.3
Smith	0.15	-6.5	-5.3	1.4	N/A

Most valuable/utilized lineups:

Lowry, Martin, Battier, Scola, Hayes +104 in 540 minutes (+9.24 per 48 MP)

Preferred method to create shots: Transition scores, Kevin Martin on isolations

Kevin Martin might be one of the most under-appreciated offensive weapons in the game today. When healthy, he has been among the most efficient players in the league for several years. Martin’s ability to create difficult shots without losing his efficiency is what really makes him special.

Three of my favorite simple scoring statistics to look at are frequency of 3-pointers, free throws made and true shooting percentage. The existence of all three indicate players who can stretch the floor and create difficult shots at high efficiencies. Kevin Martin has the highest true shooting percentage among the 10 players who made at least five free throws and one 3-pointer per 36 minutes over their career. (Hats off to Manu at #2)

Player	FT36	3P36	TS%	AST%	TOV%	USG%	ORtg
Kevin Martin	6.7	1.7	60.1%	10.7	10.5	24.3	117
Manu Ginobili	5.2	1.9	59.0%	23.5	14	25.1	115
Dirk Nowitzki	5.6	1.2	58.1%	13	8.9	27	117
Kevin Durant	6.6	1.2	57.5%	13.2	12.1	29.8	111
Paul Pierce	5.9	1.6	56.8%	19.1	13	27.9	109
LeBron James	6	1.3	56.3%	34.2	11.9	31.9	114
Kobe Bryant	6.3	1.3	55.7%	23.8	11.4	31.4	112
Gilbert Arenas	5.5	2	55.0%	27.2	14.2	28	110
Jerry Stackhouse	5.6	1.2	52.4%	19.7	14.5	27.6	103
Allen Iverson	6.1	1	51.8%	28.8	12.2	31.8	105

According to Synergy Sports, Martin ranks in the 94th percentile on isolation possessions with 1.10 points per possession (PPP). He also scores on isolations in volume. Only Kobe, Amare, Carmelo, Beasley, and Durant have more ISO points and none of these players really approach his offensive efficiency. Perhaps most impressively, Martin draws free throws on 22.5% of his isolations. Kobe (12%), Carmelo (8.2%), Lebron (8.6%), Wade (15.4%) and Beasley (5.5%) pale in comparison.

The Rockets also rely heavily on production in the transition game. It is surprising/impressive that they can create so many high efficiency fast breaks despite forcing few turnovers defensively. Houston ranks 4th in the NBA in transition scoring. Kevin Martin leads the way (6th in the league), but all nearly all Rockets except Brad Miller are must be accounted for on the break.

Only 6 teams produce more on spot ups than the Houston. Everyone except Chuck Hayes and Jordan Hill are options to shoot from the outside (Luis Scola doesn’t shoot threes). Only the Knicks and Magic attempt more threes. A three point shooting team can always be dangerous.

Scola provides some spark in the post game. Houston will also look for mismatches, so the Spurs need to be cautious of switching defensively.

Appropriate Spurs counter: Be overly disciplined defending Martin and rely on help defense

Kevin Martin identifies poor defensive positioning, has a good hesitation and can explode to the hole. He will draw fouls by swinging his arms into you when you reach… and he will do it often. Even when he drives he seems more intent to draw the foul than score. This is evidenced in his low rate of old fashioned three point plays. He gives clever pump fakes and has an amazing sense of timing.

His tremendous ability to get to the line requires a great degree of cautiousness from the Spurs. Although the Spurs tend to be disciplined, Martin can still draw fouls by timing your contest or your movement. You almost want a passive/disciplined approach when matching up against Martin. Since Martin is so good from three point range, you need to contest his outside shot, but his defender needs to keep his hand up and be in stance at all times so Martin doesn’t get 3 free shots.

If there is anything that keeps Martin from being an absolute first class offensive player, it is his passing ability. Martin only averages 2 assists per game, and his teams have not been as effective on his passes both this year and historically. Sending a lot of help could be a good strategy defending him, as long as the communication is effective and the help early more often than late.

Manu Ginobili has had the greatest success defending isolations, but his value offensively and Kevin Martin’s incredible ability to draw fouls suggests Hill might be a better option defending Martin. Although Hill has enjoyed more success defending the isolation lately, I worry that he might be more aggressive than disciplined. This is good for most, but it might force San Antonio to use Richard Jefferson on Martin defensively. Jefferson has a low foul rate, commits less energy offensively and has the height to contest Martin’s outside game.

The Spurs should also try forcing Martin to help. The Spurs have two of the best help defenders in Ginobili (drawing charges and creating turnovers) and Duncan (blocking and altering shots). Both have low foul rates and Ginobili might be one of few players who can challenge Martin’s awareness of timing.

Spurs offensive game plan: More 1-on-1 than typical

The Rockets are a below average team defensively, ranking 24th in defensive efficiency. However, they are a smart defensive team that often shows awareness in catering to their different opponents. They also entice teams to take low percentage shots.

Their help defense does a good job in limiting the easiest of the half court offense, uncontested jumpers (especially threes) and cuts. Only the Celtics, Lakers and Heat allow fewer PPP on cuts and all three allow cuts more frequently. Houston also does a good job contesting jump shots. Only 5 teams allow a higher percentage of uncontested jumpers.

Kyle Lowry, Luis Scola, Shane Battier and Chuck Hayes are all excellent at drawing the charge. Each ranked in the top 16 last year and Martin would likely have joined them if he had played the whole season. (Brad Miller is also very good at taking the charge.)

As good as Houston’s help defense is, they have no tall shot blockers. Battier leads the team with an impressive block and a half per game, but taller shot blockers tend to have more value since they can influence shots more down low without sacrificing defensive position. Chuck Hayes, at 6-5, is considered a defensive specialist who will often play at center.

The reason Houston is able to limit easy scores is partly because they will concede the lower percentage play types such as isolations, post ups and pick and rolls. Houston allows the most points from the post, the 6th most points on isolations, and they rank worse than league average in efficiency for all three categories. Thankfully, the Spurs have enough weapons to make them pay in these sets on a regular basis.

Aaron Brooks, Kevin Martin and Chase Budinger all surrender high scoring rates against isolations (1.00, 0.95 and 1.04 PPP over the last two years). Additionally, Kyle Lowry and Kevin Martin have struggled defending the pick and roll ball handler, allowing 0.96 and 0.98 PPP over the last two seasons. As far as defending the post, Luis Scola has allowed 1.00 PPP and even Shane Battier’s opponents have scored at a clip of 0.97 PPP against him in the post. There are a lot of options to pick at against Houston’s defense.

Hill, Parker and Ginobili score 1.06, 1.00 and 0.99 PPP out of the pick and roll (all are above the 75th percentile.) These three also score in the upper third when utilized on isolations. (Ginobili at 1.02, Parker at 0.96 and Hill 0.92 at PPP). Duncan is still more effective in the post than his scoring average suggests (0.94 PPP). Although Chuck Hayes is a noteworthy defender, I suspect Duncan’s skillful game might be better fit to match up against him than more strength oriented post players.

These core players will be more important than most games, but the three point shooters need to be aggressive and ready to contribute because their presence makes things easier for Manu, Parker and Duncan.

Teams are also able to run on the Rockets. Only 8 teams surrender fast break chances on a higher percentage of possessions and only 5 teams allow more transition points than Houston. In addition to the Rockets other defensive deficiencies, they don’t create turnovers, ranking 27th in turnover rate.

The Pick

Spurs

This will be an interesting matchup. Martin gets to the line, but the Spurs don’t foul. Both teams can set up the 3, but each also excels at limiting 3 point opportunities. The Spurs create easy shots, but the Rockets don’t allow them. The Rockets get easy scores in the break and the Spurs allow fewer transition opportunities than just about any one. The main difference should be in the Spurs top scorers, but poor strategy and decision making could nullify much of this advantage. Home court should also help San Antonio.

On paper, the Spurs should be easy favorites and although I’m concerned about the danger of this matchup, I see nothing significant that should favor the Rockets at this point.