Advanced Scouting: New Orleans Hornets at San Antonio Spurs
New Orleans Hornets at San Antonio Spurs 6:00 CST December 5, 2010
On November 28th, the visiting Spurs beat the Hornets 109-95. The Spurs overcame a 17 point deficit in what was possibly their most impressive half of the season. Here is a link to my scouting preview written before that game.
Most of the Spurs advantage was gained through the rebounding differential. They had 42 rebounds (11 offensive) to the Hornets 34 (5 offensive). New Orleans ran 10 pick and rolls through Chris Paul, scoring 9 points. The Spurs were effectively able to cut off his passing option. Additionally, Paul only got to the rim one time on these plays (he missed). The Spurs managed to do exactly what I called for, but I wouldn’t count on that level of success every time out.
West’s 9 post plays resulted in 5 made baskets and one drawn foul. He has scored 113 points in 117 post possessions for his career against the Spurs, a modestly more successful rate than he has enjoyed against the rest of the league.
On offense, the Spurs spread the ball around. No player ran one play type more than 5 times. They only attacked Chris Paul on the pick and roll 3 times, resulting in 4 points. Instead 21 of the 33 times the Spurs utilized the pick and roll set, they passed out of it. These passes led to 2 trips to the line, 9 made twos and 3 treys.
New Orleans: 4.14 (8th)
San Antonio: 7.19 (3rd)
Key Player Statistics (courtesy of 82games.com (effective November 29, 2010) and basketballvalue.com (effective December 3, 2010):
| Player | Fraction of teams minutes | PER minus Counterpart PER | 2 Year Net PER | On court +/-per 48 minutes | Off court +/-per 48 minutes | 2 Year Adjusted +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul | 0.72 | 13.7 | 9.5 | 8.6 | -6.6 | 8.5 |
| West | 0.68 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 6.2 | 0.2 | -2.6 |
| Ariza | 0.68 | -1.5 | 0.7 | 6.6 | -0.8 | 1.0 |
| Okafor | 0.65 | 2.6 | -2 | 5.6 | 1.8 | -3.6 |
| Belinelli | 0.61 | -1.7 | 0.1 | 8.3 | -2.1 | 1.3 |
| Jack | 0.5 | -5.5 | -0.6 | -9.6* | -1.6* | -4.1 |
| Green | 0.44 | -0.6 | -1.7 | -0.1 | 7.8 | -3.4 |
| Smith | 0.38 | -5.9 | -11.1 | 4.6 | 4 | 0.6 |
Most valuable/utilized lineups:
Paul,Belinelli,Ariza,West,Okafor +62 in 354 Minutes
No other Hornets lineup has played more than 36 minutes
Conclusion
With a healthy Chris Paul this year, the Hornets are a much better team and will always be dangerous, but the Spurs simply have more weapons and appear to be the better team now.
