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Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs 7:30 CST December 20, 2010

SRS ranks:

Phoenix: -0.94 (19th)
San Antonio: 8.60 (3rd)

Key Player Statistics (courtesy of 82games.com (effective December 15, 2010) and basketballvalue.com (effective December 17, 2010):

Player	Fraction of teams minutes	PER minus Counterpart PER	2 Year Net PER	On court +/-per 48 minutes	Off court +/-per 48 minutes	2 Year Adjusted +/-
Frye	0.64	-9	-6.3	0.5	-4.6	2.3
Nash	0.63	13.3	9.7	6.1	-14	15.81
Hill	0.6	4.1	0.1	-1.3	-1.4	-3.69
Carter*	0.55	5.1	4.8	11.1	-4.3	8.68
Warrick	0.48	4.2	2.2	-1.4	-1.3	-6.13
Dudley	0.4	-5.3	-1.5	-4.3	0.6	6
Dragic	0.36	-1.2	0	-13.2	5.3	-2.81
Pietrus*	0.35	-5.2	-1.5	1.4	5.7	-3.54
Childress	0.34	0.5	N/A	-3.2	-0.4	N/A
Gortat*	0.33	-0.4	-1.6	1.6	5.5	3.83
Lopez	0.14	-11.4	-0.2	-6.9	-0.4	-3.68

*Off court numbers reflect figures with Orlando.

Most valuable/utilized lineups:

Nash, Richardson, Hill, Turkoglu, Frye +36 in 158 minutes
Nash, Richardson, Hill, Turkoglu, Lopez -3 in 118 minutes
Dragic, Childress, Dudley, Warrick, Frye -6 in 98 minutes

All other Suns lineups that played more than 12 minutes include either Jason Richardson or Hedo Turkoglu. The Suns recently traded Richardson, Turkoglu and Earl Clark for Vince Carter, Marcin Gortat and Mickael Pietrus. It is unlikely that these three newly aquired players will dress against the Spurs.

Preferred method to create shots: Pick and Roll with Steve Nash

Steve Nash is one of the greatest offensive players in basketball history. So much of his value is not picked up by his scoring average and even his assist average. Not only is Nash always among the most efficient players in the game, he creates a very high percentage of his own shots (largely because he always has the ball in his hands). In addition, Nash has an unusually high percentage of assists on close field goals and most of the Sun’s assists typically come on the road (indicating that Phoenix scorekeepers are stingy when handing out assists).

All of these signs point to greater value than box score statistics indicate and plus minus numbers back this up. Nash is currently the leader in two year adjusted plus-minus according to basketballvalue.com and is frequently near the top of this list, despite a less than stellar defensive reputation. Nash thrives at running the pick-and-roll, pushing his team on the fast break and is more than capable of creating for his teammates or picking you apart if you don’t respect his scoring.

Goran Dragic is also decent at running the pick-and-roll. When Nash sits, this figures to be one of Phoenix’s most common play sets.

Appropriate Spurs counter: Make Dragic shoot

The Sun’s new look might make the game plan more difficult for the Spurs, but in the end, this should only serve to help the Spurs chances. If Nash is unable to go, the Suns will still go to the pick and roll frequently with Dragic. The key to guarding Dragic is keeping him on the outside, making him beat you with his outside shot. Dragic averages 0.85 PPP over his career when trying to create for himself, but the Suns average 1.05 PPP when he passes out of it. This season, Dragic has scored 54 points on 86 pick and roll ballhandler possessions (19th percentile).

Unfortunately, if Nash is running the pick and roll, this matchup might require many in-game adjustments. Nothing you try to coerce Nash to do comes without significant risk. Obviously, Nash prefers setting teammates up for scores in favor of looking to score himself. He is frequently among the leader in turnovers, but if you try baiting him into a dangerous pass, he can pick you apart. He might be more turnover-prone while adjusting to new players on the Suns roster.

Although you typically don’t want to go under the screen and allow Nash to burn you with a three pointer, he has been reluctant to shoot the three this season. He has only made 0.9 three point field goals per 36 minutes this year, down from 1.7 last year.

It is very important that the Spurs contest 3-point attempts. 3-point shots are higher risk because they have a lower percentage chance of going in, but they are also higher reward. Being the underdog, simply shooting more threes will generally increase the Sun’s chances of winning.

Tony Parker has done well defending Nash on the pick-and-roll, allowing 51 points on 67 possessions (since 2005-06). The Suns have scored 92 points in 92 possessions when Nash passes out of the pick-and-roll.

Defensive Weakness: Pick and Roll against Dragic, isolation against Nash

The Sun’s allow a league high 1.00 PPP on post plays. This figure was predominately built in the absence of Robin Lopez and is sure to improve with the addition of Marcin Gortat. The Spurs may still wish to test out the lineup as the Suns figure out their team post defense.

Last season the Suns ranked 7th in the NBA in offensive transition possessions, but allowed the third most fast break opportunities themselves. This season, the Suns have done a much better job preventing the fast break. Although the Suns still rank 8th in transition plays created, they have actually allowed the 6th fewest transition plays in the current season. Although teams are able to score efficiently when they get fast break chances, it might be difficult for the Spurs to win the fast break battle in this one.

Teams have the most success against the Suns when they attack Goran Dragic on the pick and roll. He’s done better so far this season, but has allowed 1.05 PPP against the Pick-and-Roll Ball Handler for his career and typically ranks among the worst in the league.

Additionally, Steve Nash’s defensive reputation is less than sterling. He doesn’t contribute much in the way of steals, blocks and rebounds, but he does frequently ranks among the leaders in charges taken. Somewhat surprisingly, his defensive numbers provided by synergy are not as bad as you might expect.

Since 2007-08, Nash has allowed 0.82 PPP defending the pick and roll ballhandler and 0.86 PPP defending isolation plays. These figures are right around the league average. Adjusted plus minus usually puts his defensive value at slightly below average, indicating that his liabilities might be largely due to his inability to create turnovers, gather rebounds or block shots.

I suspect this discrepancy means the Suns do a good job of hiding his defensive liabilities. The Spurs have a ton of offensive weapons and figure to be one of the teams most capable of exploiting any team that tries to hide one player defensively. If nothing else, attacking Nash with Parker and Neal could serve to limit Nash’s minutes and offensive contributions.

Conclusion

The Spurs picked a good time to meet up with the Suns. The Suns are on the road after a high scoring matchup against the Thunder last night. The Suns will also likely play shorthanded without the help of Carter, Gortat and Pietrus. (The Suns still beat the Thunder despite the short bench).

The Suns possess the potential to ring up a ton of three’s and score a bunch of fastbreak points, but if the Spurs can limit these scores, they should be able to bring their record to 24-3.