Advanced Scouting: Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs

by Scott Sereday

Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs 7:30 CST April 6, 2011

The Spurs hopes of nailing down the top spot in the West took a huge step forward last night as they beat the Hawks 97-90. After the Lakers loss to the Jazz, the Spurs lead has increased to 3.5 games (3 in the loss column) with 4 games to play.

Quietly, Tim Duncan has played very well as of late. Since coming back from injury, he has scored 68 points in 122 minutes while taking only 43 shots. This is only a 4 game sample size, but is it a sign of things to come?

The Kings have long been in the “playing for next year” phase, but they have not laid down. In Sacramento’s last 10 games, 7 of which were on the road, they have won 7. Their only losses in this stretch were to Denver (twice) and Chicago. Sacramento beat a playoff hungry Houston Rockets team last night.

Since coming to the Kings, second year player Marcus Thornton has emerged as a potential star. His offensive rating has increase from 99 in 46 games with New Orleans (yes, even playing with Chris Paul) to 116 in 21 games with Sacramento. Of the 59 players with a usage rate of 24% or higher and at least 500 minutes played, only Kevin Martin and Dirk Nowitzki have a higher Offensive Rating than 116.

Thornton can fill it up from outside, making 40% of his 5 three point attempts per game. He is most effective in isolation sets, averaging 0.93 PPP in 81 plays with Sacramento. Thornton also looks to run, frequently pulling up for three on the break. With Evans now healthy, the challenge will now be trying to effectively fit both scoring guards into the mix.

Key Statistics

SRS ranks:

Sacramento: -4.78 (25th)
San Antonio: 5.79 (4th)

Player summary statistics from basketball-reference.com and basketballvalue.com:

Sacramento Kings Player Ratings 4-4

Player	G	MPG	USG%	Ortg	DRtg	WS/48	2 Yr APM
Beno Udrih	73	34.9	17	118	111	0.123	-0.44
Francisco Garcia	52	24	17.4	114	108	0.116	1.49
Omri Casspi	69	24.5	16.8	106	109	0.073	1.79
Carl Landry	53	26.5	20.4	109	111	0.088	-3.11
Marcus Thornton	21	37.7	24	116	109	0.15	-0.57
Samuel Dalembert	74	23.4	17	99	105	0.067	-2.29
Jason Thompson	69	22.8	17.9	104	108	0.069	0.12
Tyreke Evans	52	36.7	25.4	99	108	0.046	-2.96
Luther Head	36	16.3	16.1	110	112	0.075	0.51
Darnell Jackson	55	8.5	18	108	111	0.073	N/A
Eugene Jeter	60	14.1	16.6	101	111	0.04	N/A
DeMarcus Cousins	75	28.6	27.5	93	105	0.015	-4.5
Donte Greene	63	16.2	18.3	97	110	0.026	1.54
Jermaine Taylor	25	16.1	22.8	98	112	0.017	N/A

San Antonio Spurs Player Ratings 4-4

Player	G	MPG	USG%	Ortg	DRtg	WS/48	2 Yr APM
Tony Parker	74	32.6	25.5	113	108	0.155	-0.3
Manu Ginobili	76	30.8	26.1	115	105	0.192	5.99
Richard Jefferson	76	30.5	15.3	116	108	0.115	0.18
Tim Duncan	72	28.4	23	110	100	0.166	5.63
George Hill	71	28.2	18	116	108	0.137	-1.64
Matt Bonner	61	21.8	13.2	126	107	0.148	4.2
DeJuan Blair	76	21.5	20.1	105	100	0.129	-1.89
Gary Neal	75	20.8	20.8	109	109	0.098	-2.92
Antonio McDyess	70	18.8	14.9	105	103	0.102	2.08
Tiago Splitter	56	12.2	17.3	112	103	0.143	N/A
James Anderson	25	10.6	16	107	110	0.071	N/A
Steve Novak	19	8.2	16.7	139	109	0.207	N/A
Chris Quinn	40	6.8	16.8	98	110	0.03	N/A

Player trends, based on Efficiency per 48 minutes:

Sacramento Kings Player Trends 4-4

Player	Season	Last 10	Increase
Darnell Jackson	18.9	35.5	16.6
Tyreke Evans	21.7	28.6	6.9
Beno Udrih	21.7	23.4	1.7
Donte Greene	14.8	15.8	1
Samuel Dalembert	25.6	26.4	0.8
Marcus Thornton	25	24.7	-0.3
DeMarcus Cousins	25.1	23.7	-1.4
Francisco Garcia	19.8	17.2	-2.6
Jason Thompson	22	19	-3
Omri Casspi	18	14.6	-3.4

San Antonio Spurs Player Trends 4-4

Player	Season	Last 10	Increase
Tim Duncan	32.9	40.7	7.8
Steve Novak	24.9	31.4	6.5
Tiago Splitter	23.3	26.9	3.6
James Anderson	14	16.4	2.4
Gary Neal	18.8	19.3	0.5
Richard Jefferson	17.7	17	-0.7
George Hill	21.6	20.5	-1.1
Matt Bonner	20	18.8	-1.2
Tony Parker	26.9	25.4	-1.5
Antonio McDyess	22.9	21.2	-1.7
Manu Ginobili	28	25.9	-2.1
DeJuan Blair	27.6	21.8	-5.8

Lineup data
Most valuable/utilized lineups:

Kings:
Udrih, Thornton, Garcia, Cousins, Dalembert +2 in 160 minutes (+1.0 per 100 possessions)
Udrih, Evans, Casspi, Thompson, Dalembert +17 in 143 minutes (+3.8 per 100)
Udrih, Evans, Casspi, Thompson, Cousins +24 in 66 minutes (+14.5 per 100)

Spurs:
Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, Blair, Duncan +148 in 676 minutes (+10.5 per 100)
Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, McDyess, Duncan +46 in 193 minutes (+12.2 per 100)
Hill, Neal, Ginobili, Bonner, McDyess +63 in 108 minutes (+33.0 per 100)
Hill, Neal, Ginobili, Bonner, Splitter +45 in 46 minutes (+48.9 per 100)

The Pick

Spurs

Once again, there’s a chance that the Spurs could rest some players. However, even in that case they should still be strong enough to take this one.