Advanced Scouting: Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs

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Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs 7:30 CST April 6, 2011

The Spurs hopes of nailing down the top spot in the West took a huge step forward last night as they beat the Hawks 97-90. After the Lakers loss to the Jazz, the Spurs lead has increased to 3.5 games (3 in the loss column) with 4 games to play.

Quietly, Tim Duncan has played very well as of late. Since coming back from injury, he has scored 68 points in 122 minutes while taking only 43 shots. This is only a 4 game sample size, but is it a sign of things to come?

The Kings have long been in the “playing for next year” phase, but they have not laid down. In Sacramento’s last 10 games, 7 of which were on the road, they have won 7. Their only losses in this stretch were to Denver (twice) and Chicago. Sacramento beat a playoff hungry Houston Rockets team last night.

Since coming to the Kings, second year player Marcus Thornton has emerged as a potential star. His offensive rating has increase from 99 in 46 games with New Orleans (yes, even playing with Chris Paul) to 116 in 21 games with Sacramento. Of the 59 players with a usage rate of 24% or higher and at least 500 minutes played, only Kevin Martin and Dirk Nowitzki have a higher Offensive Rating than 116.

Thornton can fill it up from outside, making 40% of his 5 three point attempts per game. He is most effective in isolation sets, averaging 0.93 PPP in 81 plays with Sacramento. Thornton also looks to run, frequently pulling up for three on the break. With Evans now healthy, the challenge will now be trying to effectively fit both scoring guards into the mix.

Key Statistics

SRS ranks:

Sacramento: -4.78 (25th)
San Antonio: 5.79 (4th)

Player summary statistics from basketball-reference.com and basketballvalue.com:

Sacramento Kings Player Ratings 4-4

PlayerGMPGUSG%OrtgDRtgWS/482 Yr APM
Beno Udrih7334.9171181110.123-0.44
Francisco Garcia522417.41141080.1161.49
Omri Casspi6924.516.81061090.0731.79
Carl Landry5326.520.41091110.088-3.11
Marcus Thornton2137.7241161090.15-0.57
Samuel Dalembert7423.417991050.067-2.29
Jason Thompson6922.817.91041080.0690.12
Tyreke Evans5236.725.4991080.046-2.96
Luther Head3616.316.11101120.0750.51
Darnell Jackson558.5181081110.073N/A
Eugene Jeter6014.116.61011110.04N/A
DeMarcus Cousins7528.627.5931050.015-4.5
Donte Greene6316.218.3971100.0261.54
Jermaine Taylor2516.122.8981120.017N/A



San Antonio Spurs Player Ratings 4-4

PlayerGMPGUSG%OrtgDRtgWS/482 Yr APM
Tony Parker7432.625.51131080.155-0.3
Manu Ginobili7630.826.11151050.1925.99
Richard Jefferson7630.515.31161080.1150.18
Tim Duncan7228.4231101000.1665.63
George Hill7128.2181161080.137-1.64
Matt Bonner6121.813.21261070.1484.2
DeJuan Blair7621.520.11051000.129-1.89
Gary Neal7520.820.81091090.098-2.92
Antonio McDyess7018.814.91051030.1022.08
Tiago Splitter5612.217.31121030.143N/A
James Anderson2510.6161071100.071N/A
Steve Novak198.216.71391090.207N/A
Chris Quinn406.816.8981100.03N/A



Player trends, based on Efficiency per 48 minutes:

Sacramento Kings Player Trends 4-4

PlayerSeasonLast 10Increase
Darnell Jackson18.935.516.6
Tyreke Evans21.728.66.9
Beno Udrih21.723.41.7
Donte Greene14.815.81
Samuel Dalembert25.626.40.8
Marcus Thornton2524.7-0.3
DeMarcus Cousins25.123.7-1.4
Francisco Garcia19.817.2-2.6
Jason Thompson2219-3
Omri Casspi1814.6-3.4



San Antonio Spurs Player Trends 4-4

PlayerSeasonLast 10Increase
Tim Duncan32.940.77.8
Steve Novak24.931.46.5
Tiago Splitter23.326.93.6
James Anderson1416.42.4
Gary Neal18.819.30.5
Richard Jefferson17.717-0.7
George Hill21.620.5-1.1
Matt Bonner2018.8-1.2
Tony Parker26.925.4-1.5
Antonio McDyess22.921.2-1.7
Manu Ginobili2825.9-2.1
DeJuan Blair27.621.8-5.8


Lineup data
Most valuable/utilized lineups:

Kings:
Udrih, Thornton, Garcia, Cousins, Dalembert +2 in 160 minutes (+1.0 per 100 possessions)
Udrih, Evans, Casspi, Thompson, Dalembert +17 in 143 minutes (+3.8 per 100)
Udrih, Evans, Casspi, Thompson, Cousins +24 in 66 minutes (+14.5 per 100)

Spurs:
Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, Blair, Duncan +148 in 676 minutes (+10.5 per 100)
Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, McDyess, Duncan +46 in 193 minutes (+12.2 per 100)
Hill, Neal, Ginobili, Bonner, McDyess +63 in 108 minutes (+33.0 per 100)
Hill, Neal, Ginobili, Bonner, Splitter +45 in 46 minutes (+48.9 per 100)

The Pick

Spurs

Once again, there’s a chance that the Spurs could rest some players. However, even in that case they should still be strong enough to take this one.

  • TD = Best EVER

    That’s what I thought Title….AT least Bruno has the stones to go and look up some teams that he thinks would be good fits(with Orlando being a place where he could definitely see some run since they lost Gortat)…… But you just shoot your mouth off and then take your ball and run away home when challenged to back up your words……. what a loser……

  • Bruno

    @TD = Best EVER
    “Boston- If Shaq is healthy no he doesn’t start… and Big Baby is also BETTER than Splitter….. So that’s 3 bigs”

    Big baby always come of the bench and with Splitter KG can play as PF.

    Miami – They never would use Matt Bonner with Bosh, are u crazy?? They haven’t a quality center.

    Denver – Kmart is old, he is better defender, but Splitter/Nene with Ty Lawson would be awesome in PnR, and good in defense.Timofey Mosgov is away worse than Splitter.

    Magic – Splitter would play in PF and DH center, two reals Bigs, Magic only have DH.

    Knicks – They clearly lack of a Center, is the reason for they bad defense

    Conclusion : Splitter would have a place in these teams, all need a PF/C to play defense/rebound and score some points inside