Advanced Scouting: San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks
San Antonio Spurs at New York Knicks 6:30 CST January 4, 2011
New York: 0.07 (16th)
San Antonio: 8.77 (1st)
Key Player Statistics (courtesy of 82games.com (effective December 27, 2010) and basketballvalue.com (effective January 1, 2011):
| Player | Fraction of teams minutes | PER minus Counterpart PER | On court +/-per 48 minutes | Off court +/-per 48 minutes | 2 Year Adjusted +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Felton | 0.8 | 2.6 | -0.4 | 8.3 | -5.8 |
| Stoudemire | 0.78 | 4.9 | 2.6 | -3.1 | -3.7 |
| Gallinari | 0.71 | -3.3 | 2.3 | -1 | 3 |
| Chandler | 0.7 | 4.1 | 4 | -4.9 | 1.9 |
| Fields | 0.66 | 3.9 | 6.3 | -8.4 | 11.8 |
| Douglas | 0.46 | -2.3 | 0.2 | 2.2 | -5.9 |
| Turiaf | 0.3 | -1.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.6 |
Despite Felton’s statistical improvements this year, the Knicks has been much more successful without him. Of course, his off-court figure only represents about 6 games, some of which has been garbage time. For some reason, the Knicks have particularly struggled with both Felton and Douglas on the floor. Following are the Knicks splits, per 48 minutes:
Only Felton: 111.1-107.8 in 832 minutes
Only Douglas: 107.9-97.4 in 286 minutes
Both: 97.7-107.4 in 417 minutes
Most valuable/utilized lineups:
Felton, Fields, Chandler, Gallinari, Stoudemire +90 in 443 minutes (+9.75 per 48 MP)
Preferred method to create shots: Stoudemire on isolations, 3 point shots and the fast break
The Knicks run isolations through Amare Stoudemire nearly 10 times per game, a rate surpassed by only Carmelo Anthony.
According to Synergy Sports, Amare’s 0.87 points per possessions (PPP) place him in the 52nd percentile for such plays.
Stoudemire’s usage on isolations is significantly larger than the 3 possessions per game he typically ran at Phoenix. (His average was also above 0.95 PPP.) Stoudemire has shown that he can create without Nash, but his decreased efficiency is indicative of Nash’s impact. Amare’s overall offensive rating of 108 is well short of his 119 over the past 6 seasons in Phoenix.
Raymond Felton has been excellent at coordinating the pick and roll. His 12.2 PPG created from passing out of the pick are most in the NBA. The Knicks torrid pace does lead to a lot of high rankings, but only Paul and Nash are even in this vicinity. No one else averages more than 9.5 PPG on such passes. (Note that not all these passes are recorded as assists).
Felton’s average of 1.09 PPP when passing out of the pick and roll ranks in the 83rd percentile. By comparison, he averages “just” 0.92 PPP when he takes the keeps the ball. Last year these rates were 0.94 and 0.92, respectively. I suspect the primary difference is that the Knicks have better shooters than the Bobcats had last season. Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Toney Douglas, Landry Fields, Shawne Williams, Bill Walker and Felton himself are all significant three point threats. The Knicks currently rank first in the NBA in three pointers made and attempted.
In addition to creating shots through Felton and Stoudemire, it should come as no surprise that New York is in the top three in transition possessions this season.
Appropriate Spurs counter: Contest all jumpers and play off Felton in the Pick and Roll
There are few statistics that indicate value in transition defense. More athletic players and hustle/defensive inclined players are obviously better. The Spurs have shown the ability to defend the break to this point in the season, allowing the fewest fast break scores in the NBA, so they probably don’t want to mess with the lineup formula too much to maintain success in preventing the fast break.
George Hill might be a better matchup defending the pick and roll than Parker. His tendency to go under the screener could help defending the pass to the roll man. In addition, the Spurs consistently allow fewer points on the pick and roll when Hill is the defender.
Knowing how to defend the jump shot, and particularly the three, is much more difficult to assess. Clearly longer defenders who contest shots are preferred when defending jumpers, but there is little reliability in defensive three point percentage. Opponent 3P% has a smaller correlation from year to year than opponent FT%, meaning that the lion’s share of opponent three point rate is determined by luck.
If the Spurs can prevent the uncontested three point shot altogether, they should improve their chances to come out on top. The Knicks currently average 1.15 PPP on 370 unguarded catch and shoot attempts (76th percentile), 0.99 PPP on 349 guarded catch and shoot attempts (83rd percentile) and 0.76 on 468 jump shots off the dribble (31st percentile).
Spurs offensive game plan: crash the boards, attack Amare
The Knicks are a terrible defensive rebounding team, ranking 26th in the NBA. There could be many opportunities for Duncan and Blair to create offense by way of putbacks.
Amare Stoudemire has rated consistently below average at defending the pick and roll. Since the 2006-07 season, Stoudemire has allowed over 1.00 PPP on 352 roll man possessions and 0.95 in 633 ball handler possessions (only available since 2008-09). The Spurs can attack him in a variety of ways on the pick and roll. If Amare matches up on Duncan like in prior seasons, Duncan is also capable of producing as the roll man.
Here is how Synergy breaks down the Duncan-Amare Matchup since 2005-06:
Amare on Offense:
Post- 15 pts in 25 poss
Pick and Roll Man- 36 points in 28 possessions
Isolation- 28 pts in 25 poss
Overall- 118 pts in 126 poss
Duncan on offense:
Post- 95 pts in 92 poss
Pick and Roll Man- 25 pts in 15 poss
Isolation- 1 pt in 7 pos
Overall- 138 pts in 125 poss
Conclusion
After a hot start, the Knicks continue to be a hot topic in my area (I live in North Jersey), but they don’t match up favorably to the Spurs. The Knicks three point shooting and home court advantage could present problems, but the Spurs have a good shot at reaching 30 wins tonight.
Pingback: Tweets that mention Spurs Stats | Advanced Scouting | New York Knicks 1/4/11 -- Topsy.com()
Pingback: Spurs Stats | Advanced Scouting | New York Knicks 1/21/2011()