Advanced Scouting: Toronto Raptors at San Antonio Spurs
Toronto Raptors at San Antonio Spurs 7:30 CST January 19, 2011
Toronto: -4.29 (25th)
San Antonio: 8.04 (1st)
Key Player Statistics (courtesy of 82games.com (effective January 6, 2011) and basketballvalue.com (effective January 17, 2011):
| Player | Fraction of teams minutes | PER minus Counterpart PER | On court +/-per 48 minutes | Off court +/-per 48 minutes | 2 Year Adjusted +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeRozan | 0.67 | -3.2 | -9.7 | 7.5 | -6.0 |
| Bargnani | 0.6 | -3.3 | -6 | -1.2 | -4.0 |
| Kleiza | 0.51 | -5.6 | -1.3 | -6.9 | 0.8 |
| Johnson | 0.5 | 2.1 | 0 | -8.2 | 4.0 |
| Calderon | 0.48 | 3 | -3.1 | -5 | -0.2 |
| Barbosa | 0.43 | 0.1 | -1.5 | -6 | 1.2 |
| Weems | 0.4 | -3.5 | -7.3 | -1.9 | -1.0 |
| Bayless | 0.24 | -1.1 | -6.4 | -3.3 | -2.5 |
| Evans | 0.24 | -0.8 | -12.3 | -1.4 | N/A |
| Davis | 0.22 | -8.2 | -6.2 | -3.5 | N/A |
| Dorsey | 0.18 | -2.6 | 2.9 | -5.6 | N/A |
| Wright | 0.18 | -5.7 | 6.2 | -6.3 | 4.9 |
Most valuable/utilized lineups:
Jack, Derozan, Kleiza, Evans, Bargnani -24 in 140 minutes
Calderon, Derozan, Kleiza, Johnson, Bargnani -11 in 91 minutes
Calderon, Derozan, Wright, Johnson, Bargnani +17 in 34 minutes
The third lineup is the only of the Raptors 10 most frequent lineups with all five players active for tonight’s game. Only two of these 10 lineups have outscored their opponents.
Preferred method to create shots: Create mismatches with Bargnani
Andrea Bargnani is one of the more difficult matchups in the NBA. He is a very good 3-point shooter who can create his own shot. Oh yeah, he’s also seven feet tall.
The former number one draft pick is currently averaging 21.7 PPG. According to Synergy, he scores 8.4 PPG in either the post or isolation plays, averaging 0.98 points per possession (PPP) on both play types (78th and 84th percentile). Bargnani can post up or shoot over smaller defenders and drive by bigs.
Appropriate Spurs counter: Beware of the 3 and create steals when Bargnani drives
Like many other teams, the Spurs don’t really have anyone who matches up well against Bargnani. In the past Matt Bonner, Tim Duncan, Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess have alternated defending him.
One apparent weakness in Bargnani’s offensive game is his tendency to lose the ball when he drives. The Spurs want to try avoiding defending him with their best help defenders. DeJuan Blair is among the best bigs in the NBA at creating steals. (Only Ginobili has a higher steal rate among Spurs.)
Tim Duncan seems to be a good matchup for Bargnani, but the Spurs will lose significant shot blocking/contesting value if Bargnani can bring him out to the 3-point line or if Duncan doesn’t fully contest the 3. Jefferson might need to defend Bargnani and he could do the trick if Bargnani is missing shots, but RJ’s height might make it hard to sufficiently contest shots and Bargnani is capable of using his height in the post.
Matt Bonner’s status for tonight’s game is uncertain and he might not represent the best way to take advantage of Bargnani’s defensive weaknesses (more on that later), but he doesn’t seem to be a bad defender against Bargnani. McDyess might be the best option to defend Bargnani. The important thing is to play opportunistic help defense when Bargnani goes towards the basket. If Bonner doesn’t play, look for Splitter to also take a few turns defending Bargnani.
Defensive Weakness: Keep sending DeJuan Blair to the basket
The Raptors seem to have the most trouble defending movement away from the ball. They allow the most points off cuts in the NBA and ranked 27th in that category last season. It also appears that Bargnani might be the biggest culprit of these defensive lapses.
If we are to believe the importance of Bargnani’s defensive Synergy numbers, he isn’t a terrible on-ball defender. His average when defending the post or isolation plays are typically in the average range (remember he usually guards bigs). However, Bargnani’s defensive adjusted plus-minus is typically in the range of -5 to -7 points per 100 possessions; much worse than his rebounding and shot blocking can explain.
I stumbled upon an article that could help explain Bargnani’s large negative defensive value. The following paragraph jumped at me:
“Bargnani has two major weaknesses on defense. First, he is too preoccupied with his own man and loses sight of his other responsibilities. This would be forgivable if he managed to shut his man down better and do his share on the glass, but since he doesn’t do that it makes it that much worse. Secondly, his defensive positioning makes his already poor peripheral vision even worse. He commits the cardinal sin of turning your back on the ball too often and all it takes is a split second for the entire situation to blow up in your face.”
Bargnani typically defends Duncan or Bonner. This might be a good game to rest Bonner. Bargnani is a terrible rebounder, mediocre shot blocker and unaware of off the ball movement. All three of these aspects can be masked when Bargnani can defend Bonner. I also suspect he could contest Bonner’s shot better than most.
When Bargnani defends Duncan, it could leave the Raptors susceptible to cuts from Blair. DeJuan has scored more points off cuts than any Spurs player this season. Blair and Duncan could also find many second chance opportunities when Bargnani defends Duncan.
In addition to Bargnani’s defensive struggles, Jose Calderon also struggles defending the pick-and-roll. Over the past year and a half, opponents have averaged 0.97 PPP when Calderon defends the pick-and-roll.
Conclusion
For the Spurs Matt Bonner is questionable, but the Raptors will be missing Kleiza, Weems, Evans, Barbosa and Peja Such has been the theme of the Raptors season. The Raptors have had 15 different starting lineups this year. Of course, the Spurs are the only team to have started the same lineup every game.
Even if the Raptors were at full health, I don’t think they could regularly compete with San Antonio. The Spurs have a great chance to win this one.
Pingback: Tweets that mention Spurs Stats | Advanced Scouting | Toronto Raptors 1/19/2011 -- Topsy.com