Advanced Scouting: Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs

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Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs 7:30 CST April 9, 2011

The Spurs have officially clinched the top seed in the West, but there are still 3 regular season games to be played and the Bulls might still stand in the way of home court throughout. Tonight could be a good night to play the starters slightly more minutes since San Antonio will have another 2 days rest before taking on the Lakers.

The Jazz are historically a tough opponent. This year’s team owns a 37-42 record, which suggests that they are still formidable. However, their recent play indicates otherwise. This version of the Utah Jazz is missing Deron Williams (traded), Jerry Sloan (retired), Andrei Kirilenko (injured) and Mehmet Okur (injured). Others are nicked up. The Jazz are merely 8-18 without Williams, 6-19 without Sloan, 4-13 without Kirilenko and 10-29 since mid-January. Not helping to ease the situation, Utah was forced to played several games without the newly acquired Devin Harris, who returned against Portland on Thursday. Derrick Favors, the other acquisition in the Deron Williams trade with the Nets, has played fewer than 20 MPG since coming to the Jazz.

In Harris’ absence, Earl Watson and Gordon Hayward both saw their playing time soar to around 35 MPG. In Harris’ return, Earl Watson still played 30 minutes coming off the bench. Both of these players dramatically improved their efficiency and per-minute production, but the Jazz only managed 1 win in the 8 games in which Harris was injured.

Key Statistics
SRS ranks:

Jazz: -1.64 (20th)
San Antonio: 5.96 (4th)

Player summary statistics from basketball-reference.com and basketballvalue.com:

Utah Jazz Player Ratings 4-6

PlayerGMPGUSG%OrtgDRtgWS/482 Yr APM
Deron Williams5337.926.11161120.1594.42
Al Jefferson783624.31111080.127-0.93
Paul Millsap7234.322.51141080.1445.65
Andrei Kirilenko6431.217.81121090.109-0.76
Raja Bell6830.812.51071140.04-8.59
Devin Harris132925.31071140.0711.45
C.J. Miles7525.225.31031100.064-0.76
Earl Watson7619.113.41011110.0363.59
Derrick Favors1818.919.61071080.095-2.34
Gordon Hayward6815.815.21021130.034-13.08
Mehmet Okur1312.921.21021110.0480.35
Ronnie Price5912.21884110-0.047-2.08
Francisco Elson609.911.81001100.041N/A
Jeremy Evans459.115.61251080.162N/A
Kyrylo Fesenko538.614.689110-0.0117.87



San Antonio Spurs Player Ratings 4-8

PlayerGMPGUSG%OrtgDRtgWS/482 Yr APM
Tony Parker7632.525.51131080.159-0.32
Manu Ginobili7830.726.11161050.1966.13
Richard Jefferson7830.415.21161080.1150.05
Tim Duncan7428.422.81111000.1735.72
George Hill7328.218.21161080.138-1.74
Matt Bonner6321.713.21251070.1463.83
DeJuan Blair7821.4201051000.131-1.78
Gary Neal7720.720.61091090.099-2.85
Antonio McDyess721914.91051030.1032.4
Tiago Splitter5712.117.41121030.147N/A
James Anderson2510.6161071100.072N/A
Steve Novak208.116.51381090.202N/A
Chris Quinn406.816.8981100.031N/A



Player trends, based on Efficiency per 48 minutes:

Utah Jazz Player Trends 4-6

PlayerSeasonLast 10Increase
Gordon Hayward15.418.12.7
Kyrylo Fesenko15.117.22.1
Earl Watson17.519.52
Paul Millsap28.929.70.8
Ronnie Price10.711.10.4
Al Jefferson29.829-0.8
Derrick Favors2523-2
Andrei Kirilenko2320.5-2.5
C.J. Miles20.717.6-3.1
Raja Bell12.78.6-4.1
Devin Harris21.313.8-7.5
Jeremy Evans27.417.3-10.1



San Antonio Spurs Player Trends 4-8

PlayerSeasonLast 10Increase
Tim Duncan33.139.96.8
Tiago Splitter23.528.75.2
George Hill21.822.50.7
Gary Neal18.719.20.5
Antonio McDyess23230
Tony Parker27.227-0.2
Matt Bonner19.819.1-0.7
Richard Jefferson17.616.9-0.7
James Anderson1412.8-1.2
Steve Novak24.221.7-2.5
Manu Ginobili28.225.4-2.8
DeJuan Blair27.723.2-4.5


Lineup data
Most valuable/utilized lineups:

Jazz:
Williams, Bell, Kirilenko, Millsap, Jefferson -44 in 749 minutes (-3.9 per 100 possessions)
Williams, Miles, Kirilenko, Millsap, Jefferson +81 in 114 minutes (+35.8 per 100)
Watson, Bell, Kirilenko, Millsap, Jefferson +30 in 105 minutes (+14.8 per 100)
Harris, Bell, Kirilenko, Millsap, Jefferson -17 in 95 minutes (-7.3 per 100)
Price, Watson, Miles, Elson, Fesenko +20 in 36 minutes (+34.2 per 100)

Spurs:
Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, Blair, Duncan +148 in 676 minutes (+10.5 per 100)
Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, McDyess, Duncan +62 in 227 minutes (+14.7 per 100)
Hill, Neal, Ginobili, Bonner, McDyess +63 in 108 minutes (+33.0 per 100)
Parker, Hill, Ginobili, Bonner, Duncan +43 in 63 minutes (+34.3 per 100)
Hill, Neal, Ginobili, Bonner, Splitter +45 in 46 minutes (+48.9 per 100)

Amidst all the worrying, the lineup of Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, McDyess, Duncan has continued to improve.

The Pick

Spurs

The Jazz did beat the Lakers recently, but that’s the only win they’ve had in nearly 4 weeks.

  • Jacques

    Final home game before the playoffs. Go Spurs go!

  • MSteele

    Should win this comfortably coming off a couple of days rest

  • idahospur

    It may be better to not have home court in the finals because of the 2-3-2 format. Having three straight at home IMO may be better than having bookends home court.

  • Mark B

    It’s going to be interesting to see tomorrow’s New Orleans at Memphis game. Now that the Grizzlies have clinched a playoff spot, the only thing they have left to play for in the regular season is seeding. If they tank that game, it will be motivation for the Spurs, because it means they’d rather play the Spurs than the Lakers in the first round.

  • Bruno

    F%#k Chicago, rest the starters(at least Dice, Timmy, Manu), i don’t want injuries again. So Pop should let second unity play the last 3 games

  • http://48minutesofhell.com midwestfan

    I think Pop should sit all the starters for the last 7-8 days of regular season except let RJ play today then sit him we need to be fresh for the playoffs. I would be a little suprised to see the starters in this game. We could use this week as our ” bi-week ” like in the NFL.

  • Jacob

    I’ll be at the game tonight, so selfishly, I’d hope to see our starters play a little bit. I’m also thinking that Pop is more likely to, since it’s “fan appreciation night”, and the last home game. We’ll see…

    Go Spurs Go!

  • DorieStreet

    @Jacob-

    Last home game of season-I think regular minutes through 1st half; then reserves come in to finish the contest. Don’t know how Pop will approach last road trip–particularly Tuesday @ the Lakers. I don’t think Duncan & McDyess suit up in finale @ Suns—that’s the 2nd of a BTB.

  • Bob

    I think the Spurs should pursue the number one seed. They don’t play defense like they used to so if they are serious about winning it all they need all the advantages they can get. Pop has been monitoring minutes all season so they don’t really need to take games off.

  • TD = Best EVER

    I agree with BOB…… most of our players have been playing short minutes all year long that I don’t think they should shut it down just yet…… may be the final game of the year, but they need to play tonight and against the Lakers…….. you really don’t wanna have to go into the playoffs on 7days w/o a game played…..especially with our defense poor as it is…. If we get off to a bad start we may not recover from it….. and being rusty can get u off to a very bad start……

  • rob

    @ idahospur

    Yeah the 2-3-2 format sucks if the hca team loses one of it’s first games at home. Huge disadvantage if that happens. Especially if it’s the second game. I’ve always favored the 3-3-1…but I guess that is too disadvantageous to a so called “unfortunate” oponent. Gotta spread the wealth philosophy?

    The so called away team had just as much opportunity during regular season to secure hca as the hca team but yet gets the advantage if the hca team loses just one of the first two games at home.

  • DorieStreet

    @idahospur

    “I’ve always favored the 3-3-1…but I guess that is too disadvantageous to a so called “unforturnate” opponent.”

    3-3-1? As far back as I remember, the 7-game series in any sport (MLB, NBA, NHL) originally was a 2-2-1-1-1 format in the championship round. I believe the NBA switched to the 2-3-2 in 1985. I don’t recall when MLB went to the 2-3-2 format. And the NHL still goes 2-2-1-1-1 I think.

    It seems like more & more fans & sports media complain about the 2-3-2 format every year, because of a the possibility the HCA team loses 1 out of the 1st 2 home games—they should change it back to th 2-2-1-1-1.

  • idahospur

    @Dorie & rob
    At least it appears the Spurs have a slight geographic advantage being located in the center of the nation and the 2-2-1-1-1 format would not cause as much travel strain as a team from either of the coasts.
    If I were to be the Lakers (perish the thought), playing a 2-2-1-1-1 format against Boston would be worse that a 2-3-2. But that’s me.

  • DorieStreet

    They need to adjust the playoff schedule from the beginning. 1st round series start April 16-17; they should go every other day until after the 6th game-have 2 off days between game 6 & 7. This year’s 1st round would end on April 29-30–not stretch into May. Then conference semis would starts 2 days later on consecutive days– May 1-2, and follow 1st round schedule games every-other-day, with 2 days between games 6 & 7- semis end May 14-15.

  • Titletown99030507

    @Bruno,

    I agree but being fan app nite as Jacob mentioned the starters probably see 1st quarter and no more. Then for the Laker game 1st half and done leaving the last game a DNP-CD for the starters. These last 3 games will be available for heavy burn for the 2nd unit right MSteele?

  • rob

    @ DorieStreet

    I know the 2-2-2-1. I’m just saying I would prefer a 3-3-1.

    I mean…think about it…hca would mean so much more to teams trying to secure that pinnacle. That and the cost of having the media to travel to broadcast games would reduce as well.

  • DorieStreet

    @rob –
    Whatever gain it would be for the media, etc in reduced travel costs would more than be offset by the lack of playoff tickets sales for the road team at their home arena
    Think about it… how many fans would just wait and see how the series went before deciding to buy tickets; or even worse: “Man, the Nuggets are down 0-3 to the Thunder—I’m not going down and spending my money just to be witness to a sweep.”