Advanced Scouting: Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs

by Scott Sereday

Utah Jazz at San Antonio Spurs 7:30 CST April 9, 2011

The Spurs have officially clinched the top seed in the West, but there are still 3 regular season games to be played and the Bulls might still stand in the way of home court throughout. Tonight could be a good night to play the starters slightly more minutes since San Antonio will have another 2 days rest before taking on the Lakers.

The Jazz are historically a tough opponent. This year’s team owns a 37-42 record, which suggests that they are still formidable. However, their recent play indicates otherwise. This version of the Utah Jazz is missing Deron Williams (traded), Jerry Sloan (retired), Andrei Kirilenko (injured) and Mehmet Okur (injured). Others are nicked up. The Jazz are merely 8-18 without Williams, 6-19 without Sloan, 4-13 without Kirilenko and 10-29 since mid-January. Not helping to ease the situation, Utah was forced to played several games without the newly acquired Devin Harris, who returned against Portland on Thursday. Derrick Favors, the other acquisition in the Deron Williams trade with the Nets, has played fewer than 20 MPG since coming to the Jazz.

In Harris’ absence, Earl Watson and Gordon Hayward both saw their playing time soar to around 35 MPG. In Harris’ return, Earl Watson still played 30 minutes coming off the bench. Both of these players dramatically improved their efficiency and per-minute production, but the Jazz only managed 1 win in the 8 games in which Harris was injured.

Key Statistics
SRS ranks:

Jazz: -1.64 (20th)
San Antonio: 5.96 (4th)

Player summary statistics from basketball-reference.com and basketballvalue.com:

Utah Jazz Player Ratings 4-6

Player	G	MPG	USG%	Ortg	DRtg	WS/48	2 Yr APM
Deron Williams	53	37.9	26.1	116	112	0.159	4.42
Al Jefferson	78	36	24.3	111	108	0.127	-0.93
Paul Millsap	72	34.3	22.5	114	108	0.144	5.65
Andrei Kirilenko	64	31.2	17.8	112	109	0.109	-0.76
Raja Bell	68	30.8	12.5	107	114	0.04	-8.59
Devin Harris	13	29	25.3	107	114	0.071	1.45
C.J. Miles	75	25.2	25.3	103	110	0.064	-0.76
Earl Watson	76	19.1	13.4	101	111	0.036	3.59
Derrick Favors	18	18.9	19.6	107	108	0.095	-2.34
Gordon Hayward	68	15.8	15.2	102	113	0.034	-13.08
Mehmet Okur	13	12.9	21.2	102	111	0.048	0.35
Ronnie Price	59	12.2	18	84	110	-0.047	-2.08
Francisco Elson	60	9.9	11.8	100	110	0.041	N/A
Jeremy Evans	45	9.1	15.6	125	108	0.162	N/A
Kyrylo Fesenko	53	8.6	14.6	89	110	-0.011	7.87

San Antonio Spurs Player Ratings 4-8

Player	G	MPG	USG%	Ortg	DRtg	WS/48	2 Yr APM
Tony Parker	76	32.5	25.5	113	108	0.159	-0.32
Manu Ginobili	78	30.7	26.1	116	105	0.196	6.13
Richard Jefferson	78	30.4	15.2	116	108	0.115	0.05
Tim Duncan	74	28.4	22.8	111	100	0.173	5.72
George Hill	73	28.2	18.2	116	108	0.138	-1.74
Matt Bonner	63	21.7	13.2	125	107	0.146	3.83
DeJuan Blair	78	21.4	20	105	100	0.131	-1.78
Gary Neal	77	20.7	20.6	109	109	0.099	-2.85
Antonio McDyess	72	19	14.9	105	103	0.103	2.4
Tiago Splitter	57	12.1	17.4	112	103	0.147	N/A
James Anderson	25	10.6	16	107	110	0.072	N/A
Steve Novak	20	8.1	16.5	138	109	0.202	N/A
Chris Quinn	40	6.8	16.8	98	110	0.031	N/A

Player trends, based on Efficiency per 48 minutes:

Utah Jazz Player Trends 4-6

Player	Season	Last 10	Increase
Gordon Hayward	15.4	18.1	2.7
Kyrylo Fesenko	15.1	17.2	2.1
Earl Watson	17.5	19.5	2
Paul Millsap	28.9	29.7	0.8
Ronnie Price	10.7	11.1	0.4
Al Jefferson	29.8	29	-0.8
Derrick Favors	25	23	-2
Andrei Kirilenko	23	20.5	-2.5
C.J. Miles	20.7	17.6	-3.1
Raja Bell	12.7	8.6	-4.1
Devin Harris	21.3	13.8	-7.5
Jeremy Evans	27.4	17.3	-10.1

San Antonio Spurs Player Trends 4-8

Player	Season	Last 10	Increase
Tim Duncan	33.1	39.9	6.8
Tiago Splitter	23.5	28.7	5.2
George Hill	21.8	22.5	0.7
Gary Neal	18.7	19.2	0.5
Antonio McDyess	23	23	0
Tony Parker	27.2	27	-0.2
Matt Bonner	19.8	19.1	-0.7
Richard Jefferson	17.6	16.9	-0.7
James Anderson	14	12.8	-1.2
Steve Novak	24.2	21.7	-2.5
Manu Ginobili	28.2	25.4	-2.8
DeJuan Blair	27.7	23.2	-4.5

Lineup data
Most valuable/utilized lineups:

Jazz:
Williams, Bell, Kirilenko, Millsap, Jefferson -44 in 749 minutes (-3.9 per 100 possessions)
Williams, Miles, Kirilenko, Millsap, Jefferson +81 in 114 minutes (+35.8 per 100)
Watson, Bell, Kirilenko, Millsap, Jefferson +30 in 105 minutes (+14.8 per 100)
Harris, Bell, Kirilenko, Millsap, Jefferson -17 in 95 minutes (-7.3 per 100)
Price, Watson, Miles, Elson, Fesenko +20 in 36 minutes (+34.2 per 100)

Spurs:
Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, Blair, Duncan +148 in 676 minutes (+10.5 per 100)
Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, McDyess, Duncan +62 in 227 minutes (+14.7 per 100)
Hill, Neal, Ginobili, Bonner, McDyess +63 in 108 minutes (+33.0 per 100)
Parker, Hill, Ginobili, Bonner, Duncan +43 in 63 minutes (+34.3 per 100)
Hill, Neal, Ginobili, Bonner, Splitter +45 in 46 minutes (+48.9 per 100)

Amidst all the worrying, the lineup of Parker, Ginobili, Jefferson, McDyess, Duncan has continued to improve.

The Pick

Spurs

The Jazz did beat the Lakers recently, but that’s the only win they’ve had in nearly 4 weeks.