Sunday, December 26th, 2010...6:50 am
Advanced Scouting: Washington Wizards at San Antonio Spurs
Washington Wizards at San Antonio Spurs 6:00 CST December 26, 2010
My resources were more limited than usual-I have been traveling frequently over the past couple days. I hope everyone enjoyed the holiday!
Washington: -6.38 (27th)
San Antonio: 7.58 (3rd)
Key Player Statistics (courtesy of 82games.com (effective December 15, 2010) and basketballvalue.com (effective December 22, 2010):
| Player | Fraction of teams minutes | PER minus Counterpart PER | On court +/-per 48 minutes | Off court +/-per 48 minutes | 2 Year Adjusted +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hinrich | 0.69 | -3 | -8.9 | -7.7 | -4.4 |
| Lewis* | 0.68 | -3 | 1.9 | 9 | -2.84 |
| Blatche | 0.63 | -4 | -8.5 | -8.5 | 0.87 |
| McGee | 0.58 | 2.5 | -8 | -9.2 | -3.62 |
| Wall | 0.51 | 0.6 | -9.7 | -7.3 | N/A |
| Young | 0.45 | 1.3 | -5.8 | -10.8 | 3.55 |
| Thornton | 0.45 | -3.7 | -9.4 | -7.8 | -2.72 |
| Booker | 0.24 | -5.7 | -5.1 | -9.5 | N/A |
| Yi | 0.24 | -6.9 | -8.5 | -8.5 | -3.17 |
| Armstrong | 0.21 | -7.5 | -13.4 | -7.2 | N/A |
| Howard** | 0.21 | -3.6 | -2 | 3.9 | 1.4 |
*82games.com figures reflect performance with Orlando in 2010-11
*82games.com figures reflect performance with Dallas in 2009-10
Most valuable/utilized lineups:
Wall, Hinrich, Thornton, Blatche, McGee -29 in 123
Arenas, Hinrich, Thornton, Blatche, McGee +17 in 73
Hinrich, Young, Thornton, Armstrong, Blatche -16 in 16 minutes
No other lineup without Arenas or Wall had played more than 10 minutes this season as of Wednesday.
Preferred method to create shots: Nick Young off the screen
Wall has run the pick and roll and isolations frequently with reasonable success for a rookie. However, he is out indefinitely. With Wall injured, Gilbert Arenas traded and Josh Howard only recently returning from surgery, Nick Young has become a far more intricate component to the Wizards offense.
Nick Young is very athletic and a very good shooter. He has scored 73 points in the last three Wizards games. Despite only starting these last three games (and having a very limited role early in the season), Young ranks 4th in the NBA in scoring off screens.
Kirk Hinrich has led the Wizards pick and roll frequently while playing with 1 or 2 other point guards on the floor. Now that both Wall and Arenas won’t be playing, he figures to be used in this play type more regularly.
Appropriate Spurs counter: Try Manu and Jefferson on Young
Nick Young has an effective FG% of well over 50% on jump shots, better than his conversion rate on close shots. The Spurs must account for his jumper. As successful as Young has been with the outside shot this season, he might be too reliant on it. 90% of his field goal attempts this season are jumpers and he only averages a few free throws a game.
Typically, the best defenders against shooters are taller with long arms and capable of closing out well. For this reason, and the fact that Young is reluctant to take advantage of his athleticism and get to the rim and the foul line, the Spurs might want to try to match Richard Jefferson against him.
Of course, Ginobili also figures to be a good counter defensively for Young. According to Synergy Sports, Ginobili only allowed 0.72 points per possession (PPP) in 114 plays when defending the screener. In contrast, Richard Jefferson allowed a respectable 0.88 PPP in 140 such plays. Although Ginobili may be better at defending offensive players coming off screens, if Jefferson is used occasionally to defend Young, it could also help to preserve Manu’s energy and increase his offensive contributions.
Defensive Weakness: Pick and Roll Ballhandler and the Post scorers
Last year, Washington allowed 0.90 PPP when defending the Pick and Roll Ballhandler (this ranked 27th in the NBA). Although many players are different this season, the results are largely the same. They rank 26th allowing 0.89 PPP.
Tony Parker typically takes the shot and Manu Ginobili likes to distribute the ball when each respective player orchestrates the pick and roll. However, Ginobili’s probable matchup against Nick Young is likely the most favorable. Over the past two years, Young has allowed 1.16 and 1.13 PPP when defending the pick and roll ballhandler.
In addition to Washington’s difficulties defending the pick and roll, the Wizards are also struggling to defend the post this season. It appears that Brendon Haywood’s defensive contributions for the Wizards last year were significant. Washington has dropped from middle of the pack to the lower end of the league in the defending post scorers efficiently.
Specifically, defenders have had consistent success on the blocks against JaVale McGee. Over the past two seasons he has allowed 1.10 and 1.06 PPP on these plays. Although McGee does have length that can present difficulties, he is a good target for Duncan, Blair and Splitter to set up shop.
Conclusion
The Spurs are attempting to recover from a disappointing loss against the Magic when they take on the Wizards tonight. (The loss might not seem as bad knowing that the Magic were able to put together another great game against Boston on Christmas day.) The Wizards are the third team with significant trade involvement the Spurs play in a one week span.
Washington was one of the worst teams in the NBA last year. With Arenas gone, Wall out and Howard coming back from an injury, losing this game would be much more alarming. The Spurs should be heavy favorites in this one.
33 Comments
December 26th, 2010 at 6:57 am
This should be a blow out with Wall (injury), Blatche and McGee (suspensions) out. Would be a great opportunity to give Tiago a third straight game with decent minutes.
Go Spurs!
December 26th, 2010 at 7:07 am
3 starters out for the Wizards-leading scorer, assists maker & rebounder. Spurs should work very hard on defensive end to get up early and put the game away.
December 26th, 2010 at 8:18 am
any update for hill?
December 26th, 2010 at 8:23 am
Good to Tiago play good minutes…I will like see Tiago playing with Duncan and not in garbage team…
December 26th, 2010 at 9:58 am
After seeing that Orlando beat Boston yesterday, it made our Thursday night ass whooping a little easier to take. We should easily blow this Wizards team up and in fact, Accuscore gives us a 92% chance of winning this thing. If we can get back to the defense we were exhibiting a few weeks ago, we will be fine. We just need to continue to improve on the defensive end and let the offense take care of itself. If we give up 100+points to the Wiz tonight, I will be very disappointed.
December 26th, 2010 at 10:25 am
@ Hobson13
“If we give up 100+points to the Wiz tonight, I will be very disappointed.”
+10
Couldn’t have said it better - Also - this will be a good game to get Tiago some minutes with the starting group………
December 26th, 2010 at 11:02 am
@ausitnspur
George Hill has been cleared to play today.
http://blog.mysanantonio.com/spursnation/2010/12/26/hill-scheduled-for-return-tonight-in-limited-engagement/
December 26th, 2010 at 11:43 am
So apparently, the Heat’s lack of size didn’t stop them from beating the very tall Lakers. Also, niether did Orland’s lack of bigs stop them from beating Boston… I’m just saying…
December 26th, 2010 at 1:07 pm
@ Flavor
Haha, I too am not on the train saying we “must” acquire bigs to compete with the rest of the NBA elite. I will say this, though. Miami does not have great bigs, but they do have something the Spurs do not have: the scariest perimeter defense conceivable by man. Miami’s hounding perimeter defense can limit shots at the rim by pressuring the ballhandler into turnover after turnover. At worst, a motivated LeBron/Wade can force the ballhandler into making a less than optimal entry pass into the post, perhaps a few feet away from the big man’s sweet spots. Admittedly, I’ve only seen this kind of D out of Miami a few times against elite competition.
December 26th, 2010 at 1:10 pm
@Flavor
You’re right. Phoenix, last year, for example would have had a game 7 with LA if that Artest putback didn’t go in. And they barely had any bigs. I think Pop looked at our Phoenix series last year and watched them play the Lakers afterwards and came up with the conclusion with RC and the rest that with our five bigs that we’d up enough to win the championship. I’d prefer that we have another big but I would agree that with our current five bigs we can win the championship.
December 26th, 2010 at 1:26 pm
If ppl keep talking about lack of size,
Why not bring Cousin down from Austin? Or is he too not better than Mahinmi was?
December 26th, 2010 at 2:54 pm
Stan Van Gundy was on record stating they needed to get some length to fill the holes made by ther trade. But what does he know… He’s only the head coach. Keep in mind not only do the Magic have one of the best bigs playing in his prime, the Celts are still missing their #1 big from last year due to injury. The Lakers are reeling right now and that makes me very happy. The Heat are light on bigs but to go along with Dampier they have a premier big in Bosh. Miami is the only team in the NBA with that ridiculous all star trio. That kinda helps out when they play other talented teams. I don’t see how anyone can watch the Spurs given their current body of work and think we’re all good. Their record is, but we’ve been fortunate is some close games. We’re a good team no doubt, but defense and lack of size are concerns. I don’t know how u can watch the Spurs and think otherwise.
Im not preaching doom and gloom, im just stating the obvious that there is much work to be done. Unlike other posters I don’t see a trade in the future. I think we’re banking on Tiago’s progress and heavier minutes by Duncan and McDyess in the playoffs. That is fine by me as lomg as Tiago can deliver. This will be a great week to see where we stand with a struggling Laker team and the Ponies this week. We’ll learn a lot about ourselves this week. Should be interesting. At least Pop is saying the right things. He’s less than impressed by our record given the recent defensive lapses. Streaks are meant to end, it’s good to have an eye opening blowout to work on ur deficiencies as well.
December 26th, 2010 at 3:35 pm
@Dr. Who
+1
Exactly.
December 26th, 2010 at 3:47 pm
Dr. Who
December 26th, 2010 at 2:54 pm
“We’re a good team no doubt, but defense and lack of size are concerns. I don’t know how u can watch the Spurs and think otherwise.”
Let me tell you how people can think this. Too many people on this blog look at a 25-4 record and say everthing is ok. The teams that sit on their arse and don’t look to the future are the teams that are sitting on their arse in May and June. And the future (the playoffs) comes down to bigs.
You are right, we are a good offensive team that will win a high number of regular season games. But what many don’t recognize is that postseason play slows down (less scoring) and becomes more of a grind-it-out affair (more defense). We’ve not come close to proving we can win these games so far. We have a great 4 guard lineup (Parker, Manu, Neal, Hill) but huge question marks surrounding our 3 of our 5 bigs.
December 26th, 2010 at 4:14 pm
@Hobson
100% agree… The playoffs are dominated by half court play. That’s where the Spurs thrived in past championship years, grind it out half court execution and stifling defense. The current Spurs are not built for that yet. I guess those that disagree with the above are the same saying we’re the best in the league. How can they be so blind? Tip off time! Btw… Who beat the snot out of Heinrich? Did he have a Tiger Woods Christmas?
December 26th, 2010 at 4:28 pm
Can we all agree on this-the team took advantage of the schedule the first 2 months of the season (inferior opponents, many home games). The squad lost focus in 1/2 dozen games and flat out didn’t come out to play in another 1/2 dozen, but managed to win all but 4 games. Every player must improve their defense dramatically-one on one and in their rotations. We given Tiago a pass because of his active summer, his injury and adjustment to the ‘Association’ style of play. Aquiring another player (i.e. a “big/4-5″) is not out of the question, no matter if you agree with it or not, or when-how it will happen. It will be very interesting come NewYearsEve morning what our final record will be, how we achieved it, and what all of you have to say about it. It’s 18-22 home team winning. Go Spurs Go!!!
December 26th, 2010 at 4:46 pm
I’m not saying everything is o.k. based on a 25 & 4 record. I’m saying we are already contenders for this championship and getting a “role player” type of big is not going to push this team to the status of “contender” others don’t want to yet lable us… and when I say “role player” type of big, that is to say, thats all we could get thru trade becuase 7ft bigs with mad offensive/defensive skill are a rare breed and if any team where to give up such a player in a trade… well… its not going to happen.
Duncan: 13.9 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 3.2 APG, 2 BPG, +20.9 EFF
McDyess: 4.6 PPG, 4.7, RPG, +7.81 EFF
Blair’s avgs: 6.9 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 1.1 APG, 1.2 SPG, +10.76 EFF
Bonner: 7.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG, +9 EFF
Splitter: 4.8 PPG, 2.7 RPG, +6 EFF
Pretty good frontline… Defense is a TEAM concept…. We are averaging more BPG and SPG than any other of the “contenders”… Numbers can be twisted into anyway you want, but nonetheless…
Our defense as seen many times this season (albeit in small segments) can be very, very, good. Yet the team is not focused in for a full 48 minutes, at least, not yet. Its a long season, but to say that we are not contending and capable of winning it all because we need more tall people… I don’t agree.
December 26th, 2010 at 6:06 pm
Like Flavor says, lengthy, shot-altering bigs, with the intelligence and presence of mind to handle Pop’s defensive schemes, do not grow on trees. While it would be great to see someone like that come to the Spurs, I’m not expecting a midseason trade. This week’s games against the Lakers and Ponies will be indicative of our progress towards championship-level team defense. I hope to see crisp rotations, solid team rebounding, chasing guys off the line, etc. The outcome matters less to me than our progress towards defensive cohesiveness. And it might sound weird, but I don’t particularly insist on playoff style, grind-it-out victories against anyone, elite or terrible, until post-RRT (Rodeo Road Trip).
December 26th, 2010 at 6:25 pm
Dr. Who nailed it.
December 26th, 2010 at 2:54 pm
Spot on.
December 26th, 2010 at 6:38 pm
I think the concern of our bigs at this point and time will be vastly improved by the current roster by the time playoffs start.
I can understand though…they haven’t been the best part of the team. However…they are a work in progress and I have faith by the time post play is needed in a playoff atmosphere…our guys will be primed, taught and ready for the challenge.
After all…it’s not like the team is going to secure another “all star” type of big by that time… and who the team has now isn’t as bad as some are speculating them to be.
December 26th, 2010 at 6:44 pm
I will have to admit…I’m not so sure what the love fest of DeJuan Blair is. At best (most of the time) he plays average compared to the accolades he receives.
December 26th, 2010 at 7:26 pm
Would anyone throw rocks at me if I suggested a udoka & Blair for Ben wallace trade? Big Ben still has quite a bit of piss and vinegar on defense. He’s a championship hardened vet, he does well each night on blocks, steals and rebounds and he would have great chemistry with mcdyess. This might allow taigo to develop more in the mean time in a starting role, and allow Ben and mcdyess to help Matty off the bench. Pop loves old players, so he might go for it. I dont see Blair cutting the mustard against the better teams of the league come may.
Parker - Hill - Quinn
Manu - Neal
Jefferson - Anderson
Duncan - Mcdyess - Bonner
Splitter - Wallace
December 26th, 2010 at 7:39 pm
I wouldn’t go for it… Ben’s putting up similar numbers to DeJuan but its taking him 4 more MPG to do so (also, DeJuan is avging about 3 more PPG). Not to mention the age factor… lot more upside to DeJuan… But thats just my humble opinion.
December 26th, 2010 at 7:51 pm
@ Jacob
You might be on to something there. 7 rpg (just below 3 offensive) in 25 min/game; experience in championshp runs; consummate pro. I just don’t want to give up on Blair yet. Did not run this through the ESPN “trade game” but-Tayshaun Prince & Wallace for Udoka & Blair + 2nd round pick- will their salaries void it?
December 26th, 2010 at 7:53 pm
@flavor
You’re right about the similar production. I would only prefer Ben for his height, playoff savvy, and defense for the playoffs. “Without a win it all now” approach, it wouldn’t be worth it.
December 26th, 2010 at 7:53 pm
Without giving up one of their starters, all the Spurs have to do is look for an Eastern Conference team out of the running willing to part with a big for some of the Spurs young talents. Take for instance Cleveland or Charlotte. The Spur should be able to get a talented big like either Varajeo or Nazr (wouldn’t it be great to have him back) and all they would have to give up in return for one or the other is a package of Tiago, Blair, Hill, Neal and Anderson. Or take that package and offer it to Philly along with Bonner and McDyess and you could get Elton Brand (and add only $1M to your payroll before having to sign 6 minimum players to fill out your roster). Perhaps hold onto McDyess (since you’d be down to only 2 bigs) and go West for Marcus Camby from Portland. who’d be only $1.6M over the 6 players you’d trade.
On second thought, rather than go for someone’s starting big it might be better to go for a big that is wasting away on someone’s bench, kind of like Tiago. That way you might only need to give away Hill and Blair. Oh never mind.
December 26th, 2010 at 7:54 pm
Yeah dorie, tayshaun is pulling in 11 mil a season…
December 26th, 2010 at 8:19 pm
@ Daniel T
+5 for the satire.
The contracts we have pretty much keep us from making a trade for Camby/Nazr/Varejao etc. We’re pretty much locked into the team we have. Our interior defense pretty much rests on whatever Splitter can give us when May rolls around.
December 26th, 2010 at 8:37 pm
Since there was a quarrel that suspended mcgee and blatche for the game, i’m sure if it gets out of hand, we could trade udoka/quinn plus a first rounder or use our trade exceptions(800 and 700k) for javale mcgee (1.7 mil) (Wizards) or Deandre Jordan (854000). Both are very capable 7 footers, but they could be too stupid to learn our system. Who knows… But we already have too many bigs and can’t lose any guards since quinn and neal have played pretty well replacing georgie. So idk
December 26th, 2010 at 9:30 pm
@ zainn
Trade exceptions cannot be combined with another trade exception nor an existing contract to obtain another player.
December 26th, 2010 at 9:35 pm
I can see us matching up with the Lakers in a 3-big lineup with Timmy on Gasol, Splitter on Bynum and Dyess on Odom.
Against Dallas with a 3-big lineup, Dyess on Dirk, Splitter on Haywood and Timmy on Chandler.
Against Boston with a 3-big lineup, Blair on Big Baby Davis, Splitter on Shaq and Timmy on KG.
In other words, I think we have good enough bigs who in the proper match ups can hold their own. I wouldn’t trade. I think this team can compete as is. We’ll learn a bit on the next 5 games.
I’m looking forward to having a better sense of how strong the team is after that stretch.
December 26th, 2010 at 11:07 pm
While no one was watching, note that McDyess only had 8 minutes and 24 minutes of court time, so expect him to do some heavy lifting when the Lakers come to town. Note, too, that Pop deployed all of his 12 men available, a luxury he won’t have in the tough sked ahead.
Finally, Kobe isn’t the only frustrated man who will be looking forward to the Spurs’ home match. Judging from what we saw of TD after his so-so form vs. the Wizards, he’ll be keen on bringing his A game against the Lakers. And with a day’s rest to focus and work himself up, Sir Spur, the visitors be forewarned, should be a man to watch then.
December 27th, 2010 at 7:45 am
For those that have previously failed to notice, our 12th & 13th players (Quinn & Ime) were late free-agent signings (they couldn’t find much interest elsewhere) and thereby are not eligible to be traded until February (Ime right on the trade deadline). Their main value in a trade at that point would likely be only for salary matching purposes, and the Spurs would otherwise have to come up with draft choices and cash to add value. Since the Spurs’ draft pick should be late in the draft, I have my doubts they would be able to get any very capable 7 footers for them.
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