Preseason: What you see is what you’ll get

by Scott Sereday

Last Wednesday I was over a friend’s house watching Roy Halladay’s no-hitter when he asked me if I saw the Lakers’ recent loss. (He was referring to the Lakers’ 111-92 loss to the Timberwolves in London.) My initial response was “Eh, it’s only preseason.”

It was a knee jerk response, hammered into my head from years of others downplaying the preseason’s importance. As soon as I said it I knew I had misspoke. Regardless of whether or not preseason success has some indication of regular season success, I suspected that I should have focused on the fact that it was just one game and that the Lakers’ top four starters played only 46 combined minutes.

Does preseason basketball really mean anything? And if so, how well does preseason performance predict regular season success? If you read the title, there may not be much suspense to the first question. Yes, teams that do well in the preseason also tend to succeed in the regular season.

Roland Beech touched on this subject a few years ago. His article indicated that preseason performance is a solid indicator of regular season record, especially for poorer teams.

Although the data was limited, teams coming off a very good season did not seem to show the same tendencies. With over four additional years of data available since Roland’s study and the preseason upon us, I’d like to revisit the question.

Comparing Preseason and Regular Season Data

In order to test for signs of future regular season performance, I assembled a table sorted by last year’s record, with a few pieces of information that help present a more meaningful comparison. Instead of using actual win totals, I prefer to use estimated Win% based on team points per game and opponent points per game. (Scoring margin is a more reliable predictor of future winning percentage than win-loss record.) In addition to regular season wins, the following table includes the estimated winning percentages for last year, the preseason, the first eight regular season games and the last 74 in order to place the preseason into proper perspective.

Preseason Team Performances

Year	Team	Wins	Last Year eW%	Preseason eW%	First 8 Gms eW%	Final 74 Gms eW%
2008/09	BOS	62	82%	61%	74%	75%
2009/10	CLE	61	79%	60%	68%	72%
2007/08	SAS	56	78%	72%	82%	65%
2005/06	SAS	63	77%	32%	77%	73%
2001/02	SAS	58	77%	88%	72%	72%
2004/05	SAS	59	76%	58%	81%	76%
2008/09	DET	39	75%	70%	64%	46%
2003/04	DAL	52	75%	29%	68%	64%
2009/10	BOS	50	75%	76%	90%	59%
2002/03	SAC	59	74%	70%	77%	71%
2007/08	DAL	51	74%	67%	76%	64%
2006/07	SAS	58	74%	30%	67%	79%
2009/10	LAL	57	74%	60%	72%	65%
2002/03	LAL	50	74%	40%	34%	61%
2006/07	DET	53	73%	52%	41%	68%
2008/09	LAL	65	73%	60%	89%	72%
2007/08	PHO	55	72%	67%	69%	66%
2009/10	ORL	59	72%	92%	67%	75%
2008/09	UTA	48	72%	65%	73%	58%
2004/05	DET	54	72%	42%	40%	67%
2005/06	PHO	54	72%	73%	58%	69%
2002/03	SAS	60	72%	75%	63%	70%
2005/06	MIA	52	72%	32%	62%	64%
2003/04	SAC	55	72%	58%	50%	68%
2004/05	IND	44	71%	55%	50%	53%
2006/07	DAL	67	71%	31%	41%	77%
2004/05	MIN	44	70%	63%	60%	55%
2001/02	SAC	61	69%	59%	73%	74%
2003/04	SAS	57	69%	52%	54%	78%
2005/06	DAL	60	69%	51%	61%	72%
2003/04	NJN	47	69%	67%	47%	61%
2009/10	POR	50	68%	52%	73%	60%
2008/09	ORL	59	68%	85%	71%	72%
2008/09	NOH	49	68%	91%	63%	55%
2006/07	PHO	61	68%	55%	50%	74%
2007/08	CHI	33	67%	68%	28%	40%
2007/08	HOU	55	67%	77%	65%	67%
2008/09	SAS	54	67%	67%	39%	66%
2004/05	SAC	50	67%	14%	41%	59%
2008/09	HOU	53	67%	63%	59%	65%
2001/02	UTA	44	67%	71%	40%	55%
2008/09	PHO	46	66%	62%	66%	55%
2001/02	PHI	43	66%	8%	41%	58%
2008/09	DAL	50	66%	66%	37%	59%
2001/02	POR	49	65%	49%	49%	62%
2007/08	DET	59	65%	39%	74%	75%
2002/03	NJN	49	65%	73%	77%	68%
2005/06	HOU	34	65%	70%	42%	44%
2001/02	DAL	57	65%	66%	69%	63%
2004/05	DAL	58	65%	54%	82%	67%
2005/06	DET	64	64%	61%	87%	71%
2009/10	HOU	42	64%	59%	63%	47%
2003/04	DET	54	64%	59%	69%	72%
2007/08	CLE	45	64%	11%	35%	51%
2006/07	MEM	22	64%	39%	34%	33%
2002/03	DAL	60	64%	63%	90%	73%
2004/05	LAL	34	64%	83%	38%	40%
2006/07	MIA	44	64%	24%	16%	51%
2009/10	SAS	50	63%	62%	57%	68%
2001/02	MIL	41	63%	48%	61%	48%
2003/04	IND	61	63%	34%	60%	73%
2001/02	LAL	58	62%	65%	77%	73%
2008/09	DEN	54	62%	74%	50%	63%
2002/03	MIN	51	62%	74%	35%	60%
2009/10	DEN	53	61%	64%	65%	63%
2002/03	SEA	40	61%	56%	71%	47%
2002/03	POR	50	61%	70%	35%	62%
2001/02	NYK	30	60%	48%	41%	35%
2008/09	TOR	33	60%	45%	44%	40%
2007/08	UTA	54	60%	56%	77%	71%
2003/04	POR	41	60%	49%	50%	44%
2004/05	NJN	42	60%	46%	13%	48%
2009/10	UTA	53	59%	75%	36%	70%
2001/02	MIA	36	59%	22%	30%	46%
2003/04	UTA	42	59%	78%	42%	46%
2006/07	LAL	42	59%	48%	51%	50%
2004/05	MEM	45	59%	75%	59%	59%
2005/06	MEM	49	59%	77%	57%	65%
2003/04	LAL	56	58%	37%	63%	64%
2002/03	BOS	44	58%	51%	59%	47%
2003/04	PHI	33	58%	44%	55%	39%
2001/02	HOU	28	58%	56%	46%	31%
2001/02	PHO	36	58%	63%	54%	47%
2005/06	SEA	35	58%	41%	19%	43%
2001/02	CHH	44	58%	58%	37%	56%
2006/07	CLE	50	58%	30%	66%	64%
2001/02	TOR	42	58%	88%	56%	48%
2003/04	NOH	41	58%	56%	50%	50%
2002/03	DET	50	58%	79%	64%	64%
2003/04	MIN	58	58%	48%	63%	70%
2005/06	SAC	44	57%	50%	40%	57%
2006/07	IND	35	57%	31%	38%	42%
2005/06	DEN	44	57%	71%	56%	50%
2004/05	HOU	51	57%	45%	50%	66%
2008/09	GSW	29	57%	75%	41%	38%
2009/10	DAL	55	57%	60%	72%	58%
2006/07	WAS	41	57%	58%	46%	48%
2002/03	PHI	48	56%	39%	60%	58%
2009/10	PHO	54	56%	52%	66%	65%
2006/07	LAC	40	56%	43%	63%	46%
2009/10	ATL	53	56%	57%	68%	66%
2006/07	SAC	33	56%	66%	55%	43%
2007/08	DEN	50	56%	72%	67%	61%
2003/04	HOU	45	56%	46%	83%	54%
2002/03	ORL	42	56%	46%	61%	49%
2009/10	NOH	37	56%	19%	39%	42%
2005/06	MIN	33	55%	42%	60%	41%
2006/07	NJN	41	55%	36%	64%	46%
2001/02	MIN	50	55%	65%	86%	58%
2005/06	CHI	41	54%	50%	35%	54%
2003/04	PHO	29	54%	32%	47%	36%
2004/05	DEN	49	54%	82%	25%	61%
2002/03	NOH	47	54%	16%	67%	57%
2001/02	ORL	44	54%	51%	58%	55%
2004/05	MIL	30	54%	37%	45%	39%
2007/08	TOR	41	54%	86%	65%	60%
2002/03	UTA	47	53%	47%	40%	61%
2005/06	BOS	33	53%	38%	43%	45%
2005/06	IND	41	53%	68%	52%	58%
2007/08	ORL	52	53%	91%	71%	68%
2005/06	CLE	50	53%	67%	78%	55%
2004/05	MIA	59	52%	67%	56%	73%
2006/07	CHI	49	52%	74%	62%	68%
2008/09	PHI	41	51%	58%	54%	50%
2002/03	IND	48	51%	48%	79%	61%
2009/10	MIA	47	51%	51%	73%	57%
2003/04	MIL	41	51%	51%	68%	52%
2006/07	DEN	45	51%	66%	56%	56%
2009/10	PHI	27	50%	59%	40%	36%
2003/04	ORL	21	50%	24%	20%	27%
2001/02	SEA	45	50%	63%	40%	63%
2007/08	LAL	57	50%	42%	62%	74%
2004/05	NOH	18	50%	46%	28%	25%
2002/03	MIL	42	49%	55%	53%	50%
2001/02	IND	42	49%	37%	72%	49%
2003/04	SEA	37	49%	74%	62%	46%
2009/10	CHI	41	49%	63%	34%	45%
2005/06	WAS	42	49%	32%	70%	55%
2008/09	CLE	66	49%	39%	72%	79%
2007/08	GSW	48	49%	64%	34%	60%
2008/09	WAS	19	49%	12%	20%	27%
2002/03	LAC	27	49%	27%	37%	35%
2003/04	BOS	36	48%	37%	53%	44%
2002/03	TOR	24	48%	42%	28%	29%
2007/08	LAC	23	48%	45%	48%	24%
2009/10	DET	27	48%	36%	60%	30%
2007/08	WAS	43	48%	35%	37%	50%
2007/08	NJN	34	48%	66%	27%	33%
2004/05	SEA	52	47%	19%	79%	56%
2002/03	PHO	44	47%	49%	47%	55%
2004/05	GSW	34	47%	49%	17%	45%
2005/06	PHI	38	47%	49%	47%	43%
2005/06	LAC	47	47%	80%	67%	54%
2008/09	POR	54	47%	69%	43%	71%
2007/08	MIA	15	47%	10%	27%	22%
2006/07	MIL	28	46%	35%	37%	35%
2009/10	IND	32	46%	37%	57%	38%
2003/04	WAS	25	46%	35%	60%	28%
2009/10	MIL	46	46%	49%	65%	55%
2006/07	ORL	40	46%	80%	54%	53%
2003/04	GSW	37	46%	65%	58%	46%
2006/07	GSW	42	45%	69%	60%	47%
2008/09	IND	36	45%	54%	64%	45%
2004/05	UTA	26	45%	43%	80%	30%
2003/04	NYK	39	45%	18%	30%	46%
2009/10	CHA	44	45%	38%	27%	58%
2004/05	POR	27	45%	59%	51%	34%
2004/05	BOS	45	45%	52%	72%	51%
2002/03	WAS	37	45%	61%	70%	44%
2006/07	BOS	24	45%	56%	47%	37%
2004/05	NYK	33	44%	35%	31%	43%
2005/06	NJN	49	44%	49%	47%	56%
2007/08	NOH	56	44%	47%	76%	67%
2005/06	TOR	27	44%	58%	16%	43%
2002/03	MIA	25	44%	35%	19%	33%
2006/07	HOU	52	44%	82%	71%	67%
2007/08	SAC	38	44%	51%	23%	45%
2001/02	DET	50	44%	74%	85%	54%
2008/09	ATL	47	44%	50%	70%	54%
2006/07	PHI	35	43%	47%	49%	38%
2006/07	MIN	32	43%	64%	39%	37%
2005/06	GSW	34	42%	51%	65%	43%
2008/09	SAC	17	42%	21%	28%	23%
2005/06	ORL	36	42%	58%	31%	48%
2001/02	BOS	49	42%	32%	68%	57%
2009/10	NJN	12	42%	49%	16%	22%
2005/06	NYK	23	42%	51%	38%	28%
2009/10	NYK	29	42%	56%	24%	39%
2001/02	DEN	27	41%	30%	57%	27%
2007/08	IND	36	41%	72%	34%	47%
2004/05	CLE	42	40%	77%	72%	51%
2006/07	UTA	51	40%	64%	75%	58%
2004/05	PHI	43	40%	62%	45%	47%
2006/07	TOR	47	40%	67%	33%	56%
2007/08	NYK	23	40%	42%	39%	27%
2006/07	SEA	31	40%	57%	60%	38%
2007/08	SEA	20	40%	32%	19%	23%
2009/10	TOR	40	40%	30%	48%	44%
2006/07	NOK	39	40%	25%	55%	43%
2001/02	LAC	39	40%	60%	56%	48%
2005/06	LAL	45	40%	37%	47%	60%
2005/06	MIL	40	40%	46%	41%	47%
2008/09	CHI	41	39%	46%	47%	49%
2007/08	PHI	40	39%	44%	36%	53%
2003/04	MEM	50	39%	81%	56%	59%
2009/10	GSW	26	38%	61%	44%	38%
2002/03	CLE	17	38%	31%	18%	20%
2007/08	BOS	66	38%	73%	90%	81%
2004/05	TOR	33	38%	47%	50%	44%
2003/04	ATL	28	37%	53%	31%	34%
2007/08	MIN	22	37%	33%	22%	28%
2007/08	CHA	32	37%	29%	30%	36%
2004/05	PHO	62	37%	91%	86%	70%
2006/07	CHA	33	36%	27%	31%	38%
2005/06	POR	21	36%	13%	27%	19%
2007/08	MIL	26	36%	22%	42%	26%
2002/03	NYK	37	35%	34%	21%	48%
2003/04	LAC	28	35%	46%	39%	33%
2008/09	CHA	35	35%	17%	35%	46%
2007/08	POR	41	35%	50%	40%	47%
2002/03	ATL	35	35%	66%	52%	36%
2005/06	UTA	41	35%	38%	51%	39%
2001/02	CLE	29	35%	17%	18%	41%
2004/05	LAC	37	34%	25%	74%	44%
2006/07	ATL	30	34%	52%	59%	31%
2009/10	MIN	15	34%	35%	13%	22%
2007/08	ATL	37	34%	68%	42%	44%
2007/08	MEM	22	33%	54%	34%	30%
2004/05	ATL	13	33%	16%	14%	20%
2002/03	HOU	43	33%	60%	59%	55%
2008/09	NJN	34	33%	31%	30%	43%
2003/04	CHI	23	32%	52%	13%	30%
2001/02	NJN	52	32%	52%	74%	64%
2002/03	GSW	38	32%	57%	31%	48%
2001/02	ATL	33	31%	63%	26%	36%
2009/10	MEM	40	31%	40%	22%	48%
2003/04	MIA	42	31%	48%	13%	57%
2004/05	WAS	45	30%	42%	38%	50%
2008/09	MEM	24	30%	29%	39%	31%
2005/06	CHA	26	30%	38%	39%	36%
2009/10	OKC	50	30%	23%	63%	62%
2002/03	DEN	17	30%	22%	31%	21%
2001/02	MEM	23	30%	28%	13%	26%
2003/04	TOR	33	29%	65%	31%	38%
2006/07	NYK	33	29%	47%	28%	42%
2008/09	NYK	32	28%	50%	51%	41%
2004/05	CHI	47	28%	19%	18%	59%
2008/09	MIN	24	28%	71%	34%	34%
2008/09	MIL	34	28%	11%	43%	47%
2001/02	WAS	37	27%	31%	31%	46%
2004/05	ORL	36	27%	67%	53%	41%
2009/10	WAS	26	26%	34%	33%	34%
2008/09	LAC	19	26%	46%	12%	24%
2005/06	NOK	38	25%	43%	43%	39%
2002/03	MEM	28	25%	47%	18%	42%
2009/10	SAC	25	24%	38%	45%	34%
2008/09	OKC	23	23%	26%	21%	31%
2009/10	LAC	29	22%	63%	39%	28%
2008/09	MIA	43	22%	42%	64%	50%
2002/03	CHI	30	22%	29%	28%	33%
2001/02	GSW	21	21%	30%	59%	30%
2003/04	DEN	43	21%	59%	49%	54%
2001/02	CHI	21	20%	30%	8%	24%
2003/04	CLE	35	20%	60%	38%	41%
2005/06	ATL	26	20%	42%	16%	36%
2006/07	POR	32	19%	33%	38%	35%
2004/05	CHA	18		26%	23%	31%

The following table displays the averages of the above data for four segments selected according to last year’s expected winning percentage:

eWinsLY	LY eW%	Pre eW%	1st 8 eW%	Last 74 eW%
50+	69%	58%	60%	63%
41-49	55%	54%	53%	53%
32-40	45%	49%	49%	44%
<33	30%	42%	37%	39%

Observations

Not only do good teams play better in the preseason, but, after accounting for the number of games played, the preseason isn’t much worse at gauging regular season success than the regular season itself. (Note that although the preseason appears to be a better predictor of regular season success than last year’s performance, this is in part because I sorted on last year’s expected winning percentage and teams tend to regress to the mean, or become closer to average each year.)

Independent of the 82 Games study, I suspected that teams with poor records last year would have preseason records that would be more meaningful than better teams. This is because poor teams would be more likely to spark personnel turnover and to rebuild their roster. Thus, they have younger players and higher draft picks, who play more minutes in the preseason.

In instances of significant player movement, such as what the Heat experienced this year, preseason performance can paint a much clearer picture of future expectations. This is because the team’s performance last year becomes much less meaningful to estimate the current year’s record. If Wade wasn’t hurt this preseason, watching him play with Lebron and Bosh could be very telling.

Differences in Preseason and Regular Season Player MPG

Another factor that must be considered is that preseason playing time is about 70% similar to regular season playing time. This would roughly mean that players who play 30 MPG in the regular season would be expected to play 21 MPG in the preseason and the remaining playing time would be made up by players who play limited or no time in the regular season. Clearly regular season success can only be approximated if the players who play in the preseason also play in the regular season.

The Spurs’ player’s preseason MPG were only 56% similar to their regular season MPG. This figure was the second fewest in the NBA, ahead of only the Charlotte Bobcats, at 52%. The Magic were tops in the NBA at 84%. Therefore, the Spurs’ and Bobcats’ preseason records would not indicate regular season success as well as teams like the Magic.

Not surprisingly, the Spurs and Bobcats combined to win only 40% of their preseason games and over 57% of their regular season games. Meanwhile, in last year’s preseason the Magic went unbeaten and were the NBA’s best team by a long shot. By many standards, they were also the best team in the regular season. After adjusting for differences in player minutes, I estimate that the preseason is approximately 90% as effective of a predictor as the regular season.

Conclusion

The preseason is a significant factor for predicting regular season success. In fact, preseason performance is comparable to regular season performance for predicting future wins and losses. After accounting for the number of starter minutes played, the difference becomes even smaller.

With all this being said, don’t get too caught up with the Spurs preseason record, but instead focus on the performance of the players. Pay attention to whether or not Richard Jefferson seems to fit into the team’s scheme better. See if Tony Parker has the same burst as in years past. Focus on the performances of the promising young players such as DeJuan Blair, James Anderson, George Hill and (hopefully) Tiago Splitter. Even the performances of Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan should be considered when they play.

But remember the preseason is only eight games long (six or seven in the Spurs’ case) and don’t forget to place the players performances in the context of how many minutes each played. A good preseason is certainly reason for optimism, because although the games don’t count, they do matter.