Wayne Winston Warns of…Jared Dudley?

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Is Jared Dudley some kind of secret weapon for the Suns to deploy against the Spurs?

Wayne Winston emailed this morning to say the Spurs should “be ready with a good lineup” whenever Jared Dudley is on the floor. The substance of his concerns is fleshed out in his Spurs-Suns preview.

Dudley, as it turns out, was an unsung hero for the Suns against the Blazers. Winston notes that “when Dudley replaced [Grant] Hill with the four other starters the Suns were +35 [against the Blazers].”

Nevertheless, Winston likes the Spurs in six. He also notes, in private correspondence, that the Spurs are likely to beat the winner of the Lakers-Jazz series. He suspects the Suns would lose to either of those teams, were they to somehow outmaneuver the Spurs.

Edit: LJ Ellis points out that the +35 lineup also includes Frye, another bench player. I passed this information along to Winston, who issued a mea culpa and corrected his post. Winston was thinking of Frye as a starter because he plays starter’s minutes.

  • Bushka

    Dudley has been an excellent 6th man for the Suns this season (and at times a starter that contributes).

    I still believe we match up better against the suns than people realise. Their perimeter D will be softer than the Mavs, and their Shot blocking is not intimidating.

    Tempo…tempo…tempo.

    If we put the handbrake on, we’ll win this series.

  • Bushka

    On another note

    Nice to see that Dragic will be playing against the spurs, the team that drafted him with the 15th pick.

  • Bushka

    Of the second round..of course lol

  • http://WWW.YAHOO.COM TITO

    The spurs of right now are not the same spurs that we are used to seeing in the beginning of the season. The spurs haved picked up their groove right on time; they have a powerful defense that will wear down the suns, George Hill is going to be the one who torches them with his outside threes and of course his overall game, there is no way in hell that the spurs will lose to the Suns especially knowing that Timmy wants his 5th ring; the spurs will crush the suns and the Lakers and will go seven games in our 2010 NBA finals. They have shown they can beat orlando atlanta cleveland the Lakers and of course the Suns. The spurs defense will be getting better and better game by game I expect manu to be the X factor . viva los spurs!!

  • Greyberger

    The lineup data is great but remember that it’s drawn from six games against the same opponent and so it doesn’t represent a wide range of situations.

    For example the numbers will tell you that the Spurs starter/closer group was very good, the bench was very bad and the pivot units and 3-guard units were mediocre. That might say more about the Mavericks than the Spurs, though - their bench and pivot lineups were better than the starter/closer ones and there’s an intuitive story for why this might be.

    There’s reason to question if Pop can play real bench units (anything with Bonner, Blair and the bench guard or anything with Bogans) or if he has to rely on pivot lineups or playing Tim 42 min a night. Pop will probably at least try Bonner-Blair ball to rest Tim and Dice as it was effective throughout the season before bleeding points in every outing in the Mavs series.

  • Jim Henderson

    Yeah, I think we should all be afraid of Jared Dudley! I think I’ve got better things to worry about in this series.

  • Phoebus

    TITO, for all your enthusiasm, i basically agree with you about one thing:

    The Spurs are now in the championship hunt, and as fans, we have 3 major worries: Magic, Cavs, and Lakers.

    I say “as fans” b/c I know there are those who will point out that Pop and the Spurs can’t/shouldn’t overlook the Suns, or Jazz, or Celtics. But Since I don’t think Pop will, I’m not worried. we have the manpower to beat all of them, said and done. If I thought Pop or any of the big 3 were about to take any series off, maybe i’d be worried.

    As for the best 3 teams in the league? Those were, like I said, ORL, LAL, and CLE over the course of the season. We can argue about whether the Spurs are up there yet or not, but the fact of the matter is that those 3 had more consistency over the season.

    I think Dwight Howard poses more of a matchup conundrum for us than either Kobe or Bron; Ginobili/Hill can do a fair enough job on either of them. Dwight’s a problem because he’s quicker (younger) than Duncan, longer than Blair, and has both on McDyess. Except SVG isn’t that good at utilizing him, so maybe a wash.

    Hell I’m 3 scotches in here, all I’m asking is if we get to the WCF (we will), Who are ya’ll scared about, Lakers, Cavs, or Magic?

  • Phoebus

    Rooting interests:

    Celts to beat Cavs (b/c they can beat the Magic and we can beat them)

    Hawks to beat Magic

    Cavs to beat Magic (Pop knows how to mitigate Shaq. And LeBron. and the cavs’ bench is pitiful. Plus, even though orlando’s a better team, this might happen just out of bron anger over last year. thus making him tired for the finals.)

    Jazz to beat Lakers, obvs.

    Against the Lakers: Parker and Hill become the focal points against the Laker PG mediocrity.

    Against the Jazz: Lean on Okur all series, play a hard post game.

  • Daniel

    Dragic and Hill are very similar players.

  • Bushka

    I think there is no way we look at anything but the series in front of us…it’s terrible mojo to underestimate the suns.

    They can absolutely light the place up if they get going from 3, they shot 50 % in their last game from behind the line, and don’t even get me started on the Nash/Amare pick and roll.

    We should be confident we can do it, but they are lightening in a bottle if they get a roll on.

  • Ian

    As far as I know, Dudley’s one of Phoenix’s fan favorites - the guy can knock down 3s and is a decent defender. IF (that’s a big if) either him or Grant Hill can shut down Manu in this series, Spurs will be in a lot of trouble… not to mention those threats from the long-range.

  • Jim Henderson

    Neither of them can contain Manu. Hill would be the tougher cover, but Manu is too crafty, and his offensive game is just too unpredictable to contain in the end. Manu would foul Dudley out, and would spend the game at the line.

  • rice

    Ian:

    No one shuts down the MANU

  • borsho

    I’m gunna think logically here. You need to look at this froma neutral perspective. Its very much true to be scared of not only Dudley, but Frye, Nash, Richardson, Dragic, and well, PHX’s 3 pnt shooting. We talk about Manu and Hill lighting it up from 3. Now unless u have every Suns player stone cold, Spurs can’t win the 3 pnt battle. Dudley had a bad series against Portland. He ca give you 5 3′s in a row if you let him. The Suns won’t slow down. The only team that could do that was the Blazers and they only did that twice in the series. Suns have developed a killer instinct and are hungry to beat the Spurs and they are due for a victory. Spurs can’t slow down the Suns. They better find another way to beat them

  • Manolo Pedralvez

    SI’s methodical and hard-to-please Britt Robson has thoroughly analyzed the the San Antonio-Phoenix semis series, picking the Spurs to win in six games (which is also how we see it.). But getting from here to there is one game at a time, so this promises to be a compelling match-up in more ways than one.
    The usual run-and-gun Suns now pride themselves for having the defense to mix it up with the best of ‘em. Sadly for them, the best D is now being displayed than no other than their collective bogeyman at this point in time: 0 in five against San Antonio coming up.

  • borsho

    You all need to look at this at a neutral perspective. One, you can’t slow down the Suns, you might make it happen a game or two, but that’s unlikely. Two, you can’t stop the 3. If anything the Spurs have to pray for ice. If the Suns aren’t stone cold from 3, then no one in the playoffs besides maybe Orlando can over shoot them from 3. Three, the Suns have developed this killer instict that’s kinda scary and they are due for a victory against their rivals. No you can’t stop Manu and that’s fine. Now go look at Amare’s numbers against the Spurs in the playoffs and you might rethink a win over the Suns considering that his #’s were frightening. What’s even more scary. He’s playing his best basketball THIS Year. Lopez might return… and Nash is at MVP numbers… oh and one more thing, J Rich had 42 on the Blazers who swept the Spurs in the season… also the Suns bench is a simply amazing, from Frye to Amundson, from Dudley to Dragic and the Blur… one last thing… Suns in 6… cheerio!

  • Borgy

    why on earth are we worried of about dudley? No one can stop MANU, Duncan will be a beast and of course when the suns double team him, George Hill will bury the 3′s.. pick and roll of nash and amare, we have seen it how many times, even though amare will get 60pts like we care.. the important thing is dont let anyone score except for nash and amare.. we got this, i say Spurs in 4games, oh yes its a sweep.. Go Spurs Go

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  • http://espn.com Jacob

    Borsho,

    I feel pretty confident that I speak for a lot of people here when I say that hailing players like Admundson, Lopez, Dudley and Dragic, and expecting them to make a huge difference in this series is in no way being neutral.

    Spurs fans always expect the best from Amare and Nash, and most are smart enough to know that Hill and Richardson are both smart, capable players, but lets get real. The Sun’s bench is good in certain situations, but aren’t really that good overall . IF the valley of the sun expects Robin Lopez to shut Tim Duncan down, and for Jared Dudley to stop Manu, this will be another bitter series for the Suns nation to reflect abck on when the dust settles. Dont get me wrong, we respect the Suns and their game, but the Spurs are a better team overall, and they have more experience and versatility.

    Spurs in 7

  • Tyler

    If the Spurs limit the 3pters, Spurs win in 6. The 3 pt shot is THE KEY to the Suns. When they run, they look to take 3 point shots, not necessarily layups. If we can slow the pace down a bit, and make them score 5 vs. 5, we’ll have success.

    Defensively, Phoenix has no one to guard TD. If they have to rely on Amare to do that, I like our chances even more. The guard trio of TP, George and Manu is more than the Suns can handle on that end of the court.

    Having said that, you can’t overlook the Suns. They can light it up if we give them the chance. They are more than capable of beating the Spurs if we bring anything less than our “A” game.

  • Beat Counselor

    Tyler is spot on. We need to guard the perimeter with our life if we want to beat the Suns. Absolutely no doubling on Amare!

    A lot of cockiness going on at the top of this thread; don’t sleep on the Suns…they killed us last game, while we taking down all the other big teams.

  • sunshine101

    Spurs…. Watch the sun shine in Hell. Suns in 7.

  • Jim Henderson

    “We need to guard the perimeter with our life if we want to beat the Suns.”

    Can’t argue with that.

  • bduran

    Hmm, people saying Amare’s going to go off and you can’t stop their 3 pt shots. How is this different from previous years? People need to go look at Amare’s number’s in previous series with the Spurs(which are always great), and then look at how long it took the Spurs to win. Never more than six I believe.

    The numbers don’t say Dudley’s a star, just that they play well with him on the court. The reason Dudley is so good is because he shoots a ridiculous 3pt %. So you have to guard him on D and he really helps spread the floor. Having guy like spreading the floor along guys like Nash, Amare, Richardson etc make a team really tough to guard. So i’m not surprised at Wayn’es numbers. When’s Bonner’s on he does the same for us, except Dudley probably plays better D.

    Luckily, we were pretty good against the 3 this season as a whole, and we’ve been playing much better recently. Let Amare get his, closeout and chase the Suns off the 3, and win the battle of the boards and we should be fine. This is Spurs basketball and it’s why we’ve matched up well with them in years past. Now, we aren’t quite as good as in previous years, but we do have a better offense than in previous series. Should be an interesting matchup.

  • Jim Henderson

    WINNING THE TEMPO BATTLE IS BY FAR THE IMPORTANT PREREQUISITE FOR THE SPURS TO ACHIEVE SUCCESS IN THIS SERIES.

  • Joe

    On controlling the tempo — the Suns took more than 25 3-pt attempts/game in their first round series, and Hill & Richardson combined for more than 15 rebounds/game. We need to make sure our wings body up on their wings when the 3′s go up and grab those long rebounds.

  • jay thatch

    i will give you spurs fans one thing, you are confident about your team… a little lacking in common sense, but confident. i have watched the past series, and i know how the spurs always seem to slip past the suns, but none of yall would ever own up to it.

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