Spurs-Suns preview with Michael Schwartz

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Michael Schwartz of Valley of the Suns and I engaged in a little pre-series conversation. My predictions concerning the Spurs-Suns series are currently running at Valley of the Suns. There is a slight chance Michael’s readers could stage a revolt because of my contribution, so race on over to defend the cause. Or, more importantly, to pile on.

What does this rivalry represent to a Suns fan?

Pain, anguish and nightmares. The Spurs are the reason Nash isn’t a two-time NBA champion along with being a two-time MVP (potentially). There is no team that Suns fans truly hate like the Spurs, and it’s not just because you guys always win. It’s also because of the perceived dirtiness and cheapness. Suns fans believe that their team got robbed in 2007 (a year I thought they would have won it all in if not for certain events) because of the thuggery of Robert Horry, and then all the below the belt handling of Steve Nash performed by that villain Bruce Bowen really sticks in the craw of Suns fans as well. Now, this rivalry represents a chance to get at least a modicum of revenge. I can’t tell you how many Suns fans have told me “I can’t handle another Spurs series, I’m not sure what I’ll do if we lose again.” But to me this rivalry is about exhilarating basketball mixed with loads of extracurricular drama. I’m not sure if there’s much more we could ask for in a basketball rivalry.

What do you expect from Steve Nash this series?

Nash said his strained hip should be better by the time Game 1 tips off, so I’m not too worried about him from a physical standpoint. Offensively he will be his usual efficient self, and he should lead the Suns to a plethora of points. I do worry about him on the defensive end. There’s no Bowen for him to check this year and his gimpiness only exacerbates that problem. I suppose he will spend some time on George Hill, but whoever he ends up guarding could have a field day.

Wayne Winston wrote to tell me that Jared Dudley is some kind of secret weapon. True?

Absolutely true. When the team scrimmaged before training camp, Jared Dudley’s team won about 80 percent of the time. He’s one of those guys whose contributions cannot be measured in a traditional box score, which is why Winston’s sophisticated analysis sees him as a secret weapon. Obviously he’s a proficient outside shooter and he’s a terrific defender as well.

How do you expect the Suns to defend Tim Duncan? Stoudemire, someone else, straight-up or gang tackle?

I think the Suns will try to mix up the looks on Duncan to try to prevent him from getting comfortable. When/if Lopez returns, I would expect to see him single cover Timmy, and Jarron Collins could get some time single covering him as well. Amare said he doesn’t expect to guard Duncan except potentially in crunch time to keep himself out of foul trouble, and any time Channing Frye gets matched up on him would be a great time for a double team.

Amar’e Stoudemire is a better defender than the last time the Suns and Spurs did their postseason dance. Do you think his transformation into a competent defensive player will make a difference in this series?

I think it depends on who he’s checking. I doubt anybody really expects Antonio McDyess to really go off, so if that’s his matchup then I don’t see it making a big difference. But if he can play some spirited ‘D’ on Duncan in crunch time, it certainly can make a difference. In the Portland series, Amare asked to guard Aldridge and described playing defense as being “fun” for the first time in his career. Those are words I never thought STAT would utter.

Prediction?

I think we’re destined for an all-time great series. It’s very possible that this will be the last time that the Duncan-Tony-Manu Spurs match up with the Nash-Amare Suns. It’s kind of the Suns’ last chance for revenge and redemption. I see the teams splitting the first four with each squad taking a game on the opposition’s home floor and then the Suns pulling it out in a thrilling seventh game.

  • Tyler

    Of all the teams in the West, we match up the best with Phoenix. They have no one to guard TD, Nash has to guard either TP or George, the faster pace should help RJ and George get easy buckets, etc.

    The key to the series will be Dudley and Richardson. Both played out-of-his-mind well against Portland. We need to limit their 3′s; do everything we can to run them off the 3pt line and make them put it on the floor.

    Single cover Amare and limit everyone else and make them take midrange jumpers instead of 3′s.

  • Tyler

    …..and I hope Amare guards TD…..Amare, I’d like you to meet the bench. Bench, Amare….

  • MTW

    What Suns fans always fail to mention: if Nash wouldn’t have embellished Horry’s foul, Amare and Boom Boom would’ve played Game 5. The rest is history. Spurs in 6.

  • Patrick M

    I do not think this season’s version of the Spurs has the defensive capabilities of years past. However, they certainly have the offensive weapons to really go off, if guys like Hill, McDyess and Jefferson contribute. Also, bringing Parker off the bench adds a previously unseen wrinkle. This series will be a challenge to the Suns defense more than to their offense. Also, the x factor in any series against the Spurs is Greg Popovich. What does he have up his sleeve this time?

  • XK

    I’m not sure I noticed Amare’s improved defense last series. Yes, off the ball, he made some good plays. But, when guarding Aldridge, he also fell for Aldridge’s ‘back-to-the-basket-dribble-twice-spin-baseline’ move almost every time, (which is all Aldridge has). That is not going to fly with Duncan, who has a vastly more comprehensive offensive skillset.

    As crazy as it would have been to say this at the beginning of the season… I think the Suns need Robin Lopez if they’re going to win this series. Even then, whoever Nash is guarding (Hill or Parker) is going to have a field-day. I’m assuming Grant or Dudley will guard Manu to try to free JRich up so he can focus more on offense.

  • Eric

    Spurs in five

  • Este

    In Pop I trust. This series will look like a continuation of the Mavs series Spurs in six.

  • Renato

    The comment about this series being all about dudley, I would like to add. For the spurs this series is all about tony parker. If he can use that quickness to penetrate it will cause alot of problems for the suns. If the spurs can get a 2-0 lead on the suns, i think that will put them down quietly bc the memories of the past will come up. Pop must also limit the small ball technique. Wat got the spurs the victory against the suns all these years was the Suns being forced to play the spurs game, not the other way around

  • Daniel

    Guarding Aldridge would be fun for Amare. Aldridge is a jump-shooter who jacks up 15 shots/game. Duncan makes you work and more importantly, Duncan makes you think.

    Amare has never shown any inclination to do either on defense, so I’m really not worried.

  • Mason

    Spurs in 5. Suns are 4-12 in the last 3 series against the Spurs. Only thing that changes this year is Spurs have 1 more scoring option in George Hill. I wouldn’t be fooled by this Suns team, they aren’t better than the team that was suppose to “win it all.”

    Richardson is like Vince Carter. When the going gets tough, they just fade away.

    I can’t see Gentry out-maneuvering Pop. Just can’t.

  • Jwrigh2

    You are all acting as if this is the same Suns team the Spurs will be facing.. That would be a mistake. While this article does highlight Jared Dudley it doesn’t talk about how great the Suns bench is. The Suns now play 10 players deep. Not 7-8 you are used too. This bench is totally different from the starters due to the fact they are a “defensive minded” group. You will be facing two different teams literally.

    In the last series against the Blazers the second unit consistently build of a larger lead for the starters. You have no bench.

    Also wanted to point out that Manu is carrying your team. I would like to introduce Manu to Grant Hill!! A crafty veteran who can flop a flopper. Seriously while I respect Manu as a scorer, I feel he has hurt the NBA with his flopping. All players do it, but he definitely takes it to the next level. I haven’t seen to many players actually grab another players arm then act like that player just pushed him and fall down. His wife probably looks like a man. But I believe if the Suns can contain Manu then they win the series

  • vegas princess

    All this talk about Jared Dudley but yet the suns fans fail to recognize one of the Spurs players coming out party. Not even a mention or a peep about George Hill. I will be honest, I haven’t watched much Suns basketball….. nothing to see IMO and I do believe the Suns have redemption on their side but like the Spurs they also have aging stars in Nash and Hill. The Spurs defense has awakened. Its going to be another interesting matchup but I’m going with the Spurs in six could go to seven. And if the Suns do win, well it will be about d*mn time!!

    And puhlease stop with the crying about 2007. If the suns were meant to be champions NOTHING, NADA, ZIPPO would have stopped that. Stop the excuses, just shut up and play!!

  • Shaun

    If the Spurs can win game 1, there is an awfully good chance for a sweep here given the psychological factors.

  • SpurredOn

    @Daniel - This is what Suns’ supporters don’t seem to get. Guarding Aldridge away from the hoop, and Grant Hill checking Miller does not compare to what the Spurs offer. Yes, Suns play more defense than they used to but their motivation was helped by reaping immediate results, as you would expect against an injured and inferior opponent. What happens when the Suns play tough D and the Spurs still score? It becomes easy to revert back to what they are: an offense driven team that has too many casual moments on the other end.

    That PHX people are counting on a game 7 at home tells me that’s more hope on their part that they can reach that point and lean on their arena, a place where the Spurs have been quite comfortable the past decade. Problem is that one team has won a road game 7 each of the past five seasons, including the Spurs in ’08. And there will be two off days before that possible game, meaning our guys will be fresh.

  • NFGIII

    Defensive keys: Transition D to limit them getting energized with cheap buckets, limit the Suns 3 pt shooting - this is probably one of the best 3 pt shooting teams in NBA history IMHO, make Nash a shooter while limiting his assists and clamping down on Jason R. I’m not worried about Amare since I believe he will get his and in the past the Spurs have focused on other key players and bascially let Amare go off.

    Offensive keys: Milk TD since they don’t have any bigs to effectively stop him with Lopez out, Manu needs to be Manu and the Spurs will need for someone to contribute off the bench both in rebounding(Blair) and shooting(most likely Bonner). This team needs an 8 - 9 man rotation so as to primarily not wear out TD and in the Mavs series it was basically a 6 - 6.5 one, with Blair and Bonner contributing at certain times but not consistently.

  • HoopsDogg

    I think everyone is up on the Spurs right now, because the Mavs flat out played like garbage and got out-coached last series. The Suns play better perimeter defense than they did in earlier years. Dudley and Grant Hill will be much better for the Suns than whomever was guarding Manu and George Hill last series. When Beaubois was in, the Mavs were infinitely better. Additionally, the Suns don’t have any ballstoppers like Caron Butler. The Suns will try to run them to death, and are a deeper team. The old legs in San Antonio, especially in the front court, could get pretty tested, especially if Lopez is back. TD could help a lot on defense against the Mavs, but with Amare, Fry, and Lopez, it will be harder. They’re much more dynamic offensively. Plus, I think I’ve noticed that Alvin Gentry is a better coach than D’Antoni. Depth will be a big concern for San Antonio. Look for them to get blown out in a couple games as they call it quits early. As always, Jefferson and Hill will be the X-Factors for the Spurs, as Richardson for the Suns. Should be a great series, but I’d call it a coin flip. There’s just so many variables. Given their depth, I call it Suns in 7, barring any bizarre suspensions and the usual Spurs thuggery.

  • http://espn.com izsm

    Michael,

    Really? Thuggery? Dirtiness and cheapness?? Will someone please come up with something better, different than Bowen, Horry and the refs. It really has become rather stale. Was Horry’s foul on Nash a solid play off foul? Absoulutely, did Nash embelish and try to sell it as something else? Absolutely. Bloody nose…seems to me the foul was called on Nash who nearly gave Parker a concussion, by diving with his head. Sorta the way Manu lead with his schnoz and was called for fouling Dirk’s elbow. No one here was crying for a foul, or crying foul by Dirk. Bowen, when will the whinning about Bowen stop? Hard nosed defender, limited offensive ability, dirty? Absolutely not. Not anymore than Marion. Face it, speed kills, especially in the playoffs’ especially when the speed is slow and at the pace dicated by your opponent. Suns great team to watch, but not built for a deep playoff run. Spurs two surefire hall of famers maybe four depending on what Parker and Hill do. Four championships, hall of fame coach (arguably the best in the NBA) and a iron jawed will to win. Spurs in 6.

    enjoy!
    izzy

  • jwalt

    I believe this is the best Sun team yet to play SA, and this is hardly the Spurs best team. But I still like the Spurs to find a way to win. Since Manu got into the starting lineup (FINALLY!) the Spurs have been playing much better.

    Two keys for the Spurs. First is transition defense, which is usually a real strength of theirs but not so much this year. Second is handling the Amare-Nash pick and roll. So far this year the Spurs have been miserable at that.

  • jason

    Just an observation: if the reason the suns think they’ll win this year is cause “now we play defense.” Doesn’t this implicitly absolve the spurs of all the dirtiness the suns percieve? I mean if they’re admitting that all those other teams didn’t play d, but this year’s team does and its the best, then they’re also admitting that previous suns encarnations were fundamentally flawed and doomed to be bounced anyway… Bottom line: don’t hate the player hate the game

  • Ben

    I think Nash’s hip will be more of a factor than given above. Sure he’s going to say he’s 100% for Game 1. Any player would make that statement, but it’s going to be a lot of tough games for Nash and that injury could come back to haunt him.

    I think the big key is either Hill or Jefferson. When either of those guys produce even a decent 15-18 point game it opens up the floor to the Spurs Big 3 and the rest is history.

    Spurs in 5.

  • vegas princess

    why wasn’t my comment posted? are we anti woman here? I did not post anything incoherent either. wrong really really wrong.

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