Spurs v. Rockets: The Team to Avoid

by

Pop x Gandalf

“The playoffs are all about matchups.” It’s a familiar song in the NBA this time of year, and for the most part, the adage rings true. In the Western Conference especially, nearly every playoff team knows a possible postseason opponent they’d like to avoid, a roster of matchup problems and question marks to circumvent in the chaos of establishing final seeding as the season ends.

Despite the list of teams the Spurs have pounded during their eight-game winning streak, there existed a quiet doubt among some that they would be able to keep it going against the Rockets. Houston presents significant problems for any team, but particularly so for a team like the Spurs. Even after losing Patrick Beverley and (just yesterday) Donatas Motiejunas for the season, the Rockets have length, feature a dominant defensive big, shoot a ton of threes, and earn an avalanche of free throws on the back of their unstoppable offensive specialist. These traits would seem to be enough to throw off the Spurs’ pass-heavy motion offense and disciplined defensive rotations equally. They’re not unique problems, to be sure – Golden State forces tough decisions with similar individual and strategic matchups – but for whatever reason, it’s been Houston that has gotten San Antonio’s goat these past few years more than just about any team in the league.

It certainly seemed like that trend would continue, as the Spurs spent most of the first quarter Wednesday night confused and scrambling, allowing the Rockets to score 33 points in the frame. Were it not for Tony Parker’s wizardry (13 points in the first quarter, 27 in the game), the Spurs might have found themselves in a hole too big to dig out of against a Rockets team whose defense does not typically allow big comebacks. Parker, who left Tuesday’s game in Oklahoma City early with Achilles soreness, was responsible for the Spurs’ first 13 points, scoring nine himself and assisting on two other baskets. For eight games, the Spurs had grown accustomed to simply handing Kawhi Leonard the ball and watching him go, and when he was quiet out of the gate, Parker provided a much needed burst of offense to keep it tight. So when he was subbed out with two minutes remaining in the first quarter and the Spurs down seven, things weren’t looking great.

For most of this season, the inconsistency of San Antonio’s bench has been a major issue, and Popovich has spent many games watching leads dwindle or deficits grow as the Foreign Legion struggled to rediscover its synergy. Since the All-Star Break though, the team has begun to find its rhythm, and on Tuesday night, the Spurs clawed and scrapped their way back into the game on the backs of their bench core – Manu Ginobili and Boris Diaw – closing the first quarter on an 8-2 run. Those two, in particular, were brilliant all night, Manu hitting very timely threes, Diaw getting the better of whomever the Rockets threw at him.

When the deficit reached its eight-point peak halfway through the second quarter, Popovich called a timeout, and the Spurs answered back with another monster run to close the half and take the lead for good. From there, they continued to pile on to put the game out of reach. Like the Warriors game on Sunday, every time it looked like things were getting close in the second half, Tony Parker would pirouette his way into a layup, or Kawhi Leonard would grab the ball right out of someone’s hands, or Tim Duncan would make a huge block. Even without Splitter and Belinelli, San Antonio had answers. Aron Baynes came up with a big game starting for Splitter and was a monster on the boards (12 rebounds). Cory Joseph continued to establish his hold on the backup point guard spot, getting the hustle plays fans are accustomed to seeing.

For a team that limped into the All-Star break full of questions, having answers like these for really important games is quite a turnaround. There’s not much left to be said at this point in the season. There are certainly things on the line these remaining three games, but where the Spurs land won’t do much to change their new reality. After a half season of unlucky bounces and bad breaks, they’ve become the team everyone else wants to avoid.

  • brunostrange

    Good piece. I came into last night’s game concerned about HOU snapping SA’s streak, and about a potential playoff match-up. The difficulties the Rockets have posed for the Spurs in the recent past are not exaggerated. After last night’s game, I’m not too concerned about HOU. I almost expected us to come out flat (which we did), but once the team was in rhythn, we had our way in the paint with them, and our defense clamped them up, especially in the end of 2nd and throughout the 3rd. Sure, Howard is too strong for a svelte Duncan, but hey, that’s why we have Tiago (assuming he’s back in time for the post-season).

    So yeah - the team I was most nervous about facing? Not so much anymore.

  • TD BestEVER

    I think that Howard actually hurts this team. They are not very good on D and his shot blocking/ goal tending actually hurts the team more then it helps. No one on their team locks in on D. They all gamble or reach or just try to meet you at the rim with block shots. Just look at the KL coast to coast layup when no one even tried to stop him just block his shot. They live and die by the 3 and Howard scoring actually slows down their offense when that’s the reason they win ALL of their games. So i say please slow down that offense with more ISO post ups. That’s just one less chance of them shooting a 3. Plus he is only 50% from the FT line so we can just foul him to slow them down of needed.

  • hoopsaf

    I don’t believe the myth ‘the playoffs are all about matchups’. This is an anecdote with very little statistical evidence. There have been so many playoff series in the past that turned out completely differently from what ‘matchup’ aficionados or so-called ESPN analysts have predicted.

    IMO, what really matters most is whether a team is just better than the other. You’ll rarely see upsets where an inferior team beats a better team because of some imagined matchup issues (what’s the last series anyone can point and say was a significant upset? Maybe 2007 GSW vs Dallas)

    And I think Spurs are significantly better than Hou as of now -> reasons being all Hou injuries, Dwight just not being the same player he was in Orlando, and the fact that they’ve been barely squeaking by with a lot of very lucky single digit wins (their expected win-loss percentage based on differentials is ‘significantly’ lower than what they currently have).

    Realistically, I think Houston has about 20% chance of beating Spurs if they meet in the playoffs (maybe 30% if they have the HC). It’s just very unlikely IMO.

  • Thedrwolff

    Dwight Howard looked good last night. Normally I am not very “polite to dwight” and have never been a fan of his game…yet last night he made a big difference. Inspite of our shooting woes early (parker carried us) I still think we gut that game out for the win if Howard isn’t on a tight minutes watch but it was certainly a lot easier with him out for long stretches. I’d like to say we did a great job on him but we didn’t. He scored at will. Terry is to old now to give effective minutes for very long and prigioni is a third string guard on most teams. That point position is certainly their weakness and Tony blew it up huge last night. That was a good team win…SO different in two months. Before,there was no 1 or 2 guys having a bad offensive game….there was ONLY 1 or 2 guys having a GOOD offensive game. NOW, if Danny is cold its no problem…Boris and Manu light it up. Manu is cold…okay…baines is racking up 12. The machine was mostly working all season…guys just didn’t make the open shots when they came to them and most of them KNEW they werent the “hot hand” so they kept passing it on until it lands in the hands of someone who isn’t that confident in their shot. Where do you go to give credit for the sudden simultaneous resurgence of 5 key players Tony/Tiago/Kawhi/Boris/Danny. Let’s face it…we all knew that the moment the ball was inbounded in the third quarter we were taking lumps…for half a season, every game. It was the most consistent thing we had going. You could set your clock by it. How much are the starters getting waxed in the first 8 min of the third tonight? Now every game is OVER by the end of the third. It’s like the MON STARS gave back the ability to play. 1 regulation loss in 21 games…and we hosed that team a week later. worried that OKC was going to take us for the 8 spot to feeling pretty good we are getting the 2 seed. Throwing the season out the window as “grateful to make it to the second round” to “we got this”. I was rooting for a “different team”. The one the Spurs had left behind in their place. Suddenly, everything feels right in the world. I feel embarrassed that I forgot, of course, “These are the Spurs”.

  • GoSpursGo

    I think it is mental weakness to worry about matchups or trying to avoid certain teams, and I am happy the Spurs never seem to buy into it. Yes, the Rockets and the Warriors can be a challenge, but if you have the belief that you are the best, you shouldn’t care one bit who you face. At this point, the Spurs should consider themselves favorites against any team in the league, so even thinking about arranging specific matchups would be introducing doubt.