Scattered thoughts on Suns-Spurs game 2 adjustments
John Hollinger says we should expect more smallball from the Spurs. I’m inclined to agree.
According to another statistical expert, Wayne Winston, the Suns’ best lineup is Steve Nash, Jason Richardson, Jared Dudley, Channing Frye and Amar’e Stoudemire. After Game 1, he wrote to say the Spurs will win or lose this series based on how they counter that lineup, which was +11 after one game.
George Hill was San Antonio’s biggest problem on Monday night. The Spurs were -22 with Hill in the game. But I’m betting that’s an aberration.
I’m not sure if Gregg Popovich will start Tony Parker, but I suspect it doesn’t matter. Like Hollinger, I see the Spurs utilizing a 5-man unit of Tony Parker, George Hill, Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson and Tim Duncan to close games. That unit played well in Game 1, despite Hill’s off night. They were +12.5, but only played 6 minutes together.
The two lineups that killed the Spurs were Hill-Ginobili-Jefferson-McDyess-Duncan and Parker-Hill-Jefferson-McDyess-Duncan, which recorded -53 and -73 APMs and played together for nearly 10 minutes. Most of these minutes came early, when Steve Nash was playing Michael Jordan to the Spurs’ Utah Jazz. But both of those lineups performed well during the regular season, and no one expects Nash to drop 17 first quarter points tonight. It’s something to watch, but probably closer to an aberration than an a worry.
It’s worth noting that Parker-Ginobili-Jefferson-McDyess-Duncan was +78 in 8 minutes of play. In other words, it’s fair to single Hill out and ask “What happened?” But again, it’s one game. Let’s not panic because George Hill brought a big bag suck to the series opener. He’ll adjust, the Spurs will look better because of it.
The problem with putting too much faith in a smallball lineup change is that it’s predicated, in part, on another kind of aberration. Keith Bogans, whom Wayne Winston begged the Spurs not to play in round 1, helped the Spurs against the Suns, but his track record up to this point is mediocre. Nonetheless, Parker-Hill-Ginobili-Bogans-Duncan was +107 in 4 minutes of play.
Unfortunately for the Spurs, Matt Bonner continues as a playoff disappointment. When Bonner was in the game with Tim Duncan, the Spurs kind of stunk. But, as has been true for most of the season, Bonner-Blair combinations provide the Spurs with effective minutes. Blair-Bonner-Ginobili-Mason-Parker and Blair-Bonner-Ginobili-Hill-Mason were +49 and +85, respectively. (Although, it’s only one game, and they didn’t play many minutes together. Do you hear the refrain?) But if Popovich needs to play Mason to provide Parker, Hill or Ginobili rest and, at the same time, prevent Bonner from hurting the team, these lineups make sense.
Better yet, the Spurs could try someone like Garrett Temple if Mason looks like a train wreck by the time he reaches the scorer’s table. If Mason’s not making shots, and he hasn’t been for something like 5 months, it’s hard to justify his playing time. Mason hasn’t shot better than .258 from deep since February. He’s 1-11 this postseason.
Finally, and this is a stretch, I admit, but here’s an experiment to try 1 in, 4 out sets: the Spurs could feature DeJuan Blair or Ian Mahinmi as their lone big. Of course, this is a limited minutes scenario. Something like the final couple minutes of a quarter in order to give Duncan rest or to protect him from a cheap, end-of-the-quarter foul. I’m not sure the Suns have a defender who could handle Blair or Mahinmi in isolation, assuming that Duncan and Stoudemire’s substitution patterns mirror one another.
Mahinmi is a foul waiting to happen, but he can score. And his quickness tends to draw fouls. If Popovich wanted to do something unexpected for 2 or 3 minutes in the first half, this is a decent gimmick.
But more than anything, I see tonight’s biggest adjustment as George Hill improving his overall play. If that happens, the Spurs should be fine.