Scattered thoughts on Suns-Spurs game 2 adjustments
John Hollinger says we should expect more smallball from the Spurs. I’m inclined to agree.
According to another statistical expert, Wayne Winston, the Suns’ best lineup is Steve Nash, Jason Richardson, Jared Dudley, Channing Frye and Amar’e Stoudemire. After Game 1, he wrote to say the Spurs will win or lose this series based on how they counter that lineup, which was +11 after one game.
George Hill was San Antonio’s biggest problem on Monday night. The Spurs were -22 with Hill in the game. But I’m betting that’s an aberration.
I’m not sure if Gregg Popovich will start Tony Parker, but I suspect it doesn’t matter. Like Hollinger, I see the Spurs utilizing a 5-man unit of Tony Parker, George Hill, Manu Ginobili, Richard Jefferson and Tim Duncan to close games. That unit played well in Game 1, despite Hill’s off night. They were +12.5, but only played 6 minutes together.
The two lineups that killed the Spurs were Hill-Ginobili-Jefferson-McDyess-Duncan and Parker-Hill-Jefferson-McDyess-Duncan, which recorded -53 and -73 APMs and played together for nearly 10 minutes. Most of these minutes came early, when Steve Nash was playing Michael Jordan to the Spurs’ Utah Jazz. But both of those lineups performed well during the regular season, and no one expects Nash to drop 17 first quarter points tonight. It’s something to watch, but probably closer to an aberration than an a worry.
It’s worth noting that Parker-Ginobili-Jefferson-McDyess-Duncan was +78 in 8 minutes of play. In other words, it’s fair to single Hill out and ask “What happened?” But again, it’s one game. Let’s not panic because George Hill brought a big bag suck to the series opener. He’ll adjust, the Spurs will look better because of it.
The problem with putting too much faith in a smallball lineup change is that it’s predicated, in part, on another kind of aberration. Keith Bogans, whom Wayne Winston begged the Spurs not to play in round 1, helped the Spurs against the Suns, but his track record up to this point is mediocre. Nonetheless, Parker-Hill-Ginobili-Bogans-Duncan was +107 in 4 minutes of play.
Unfortunately for the Spurs, Matt Bonner continues as a playoff disappointment. When Bonner was in the game with Tim Duncan, the Spurs kind of stunk. But, as has been true for most of the season, Bonner-Blair combinations provide the Spurs with effective minutes. Blair-Bonner-Ginobili-Mason-Parker and Blair-Bonner-Ginobili-Hill-Mason were +49 and +85, respectively. (Although, it’s only one game, and they didn’t play many minutes together. Do you hear the refrain?) But if Popovich needs to play Mason to provide Parker, Hill or Ginobili rest and, at the same time, prevent Bonner from hurting the team, these lineups make sense.
Better yet, the Spurs could try someone like Garrett Temple if Mason looks like a train wreck by the time he reaches the scorer’s table. If Mason’s not making shots, and he hasn’t been for something like 5 months, it’s hard to justify his playing time. Mason hasn’t shot better than .258 from deep since February. He’s 1-11 this postseason.
Finally, and this is a stretch, I admit, but here’s an experiment to try 1 in, 4 out sets: the Spurs could feature DeJuan Blair or Ian Mahinmi as their lone big. Of course, this is a limited minutes scenario. Something like the final couple minutes of a quarter in order to give Duncan rest or to protect him from a cheap, end-of-the-quarter foul. I’m not sure the Suns have a defender who could handle Blair or Mahinmi in isolation, assuming that Duncan and Stoudemire’s substitution patterns mirror one another.
Mahinmi is a foul waiting to happen, but he can score. And his quickness tends to draw fouls. If Popovich wanted to do something unexpected for 2 or 3 minutes in the first half, this is a decent gimmick.
But more than anything, I see tonight’s biggest adjustment as George Hill improving his overall play. If that happens, the Spurs should be fine.
I think their biggest problem was being too confident. After that tough MAVS series I bet the SPURS thought the SUNS won’t be that tough. That’s how they came out. They kind of went through the motions, IMO. POP should have know (and I think he did) that NASH was going to take HILL to school.
He loves having a spark off the bench so he bluffed by keeping HILL in the starting line up and TP on the bench and NASH called.
You’d think he would have put in TP after Nash’s second lay-up and not at the start of the second half. WIth TP in the starting unit for the second half the SPURS went on a tear. Even though they took the lead it was still too late. SUNS tied it right away and the SPURS again were playing from behind.
I know this is going to sound crazy but how about BOGANS on JRICH. I’m sure he can stay with him and he can be a pest at times. And if you’re lucky maybe he can hit a three or two.
I like the idea of putting IAN in. Especially when TD sits. At the very least he can rebound. SUNS got some critical second chance points.
As far as RMJ goes, he can’t be out there. I was rooting for the guy all year but he just never found his shot. He could have made an impact out there but he couldn’t get it done. He should have found his shot by now.
I think more BONNER would be nice too. People criticize him but he isn’t out there long enough to get his shot off. He’s basically the only 3 point threat the SPURS have. Save MANU,HILL.
I think they can take this one.
Just tell me they won’t be wearing the “LOS SPURS” jerseys…I think they are 0 – 5 wearing those things.
@ChrisJ
No, they’re not. They only have Los Spurs in home unis…
“It’s worth noting that Parker-Ginobili-Jefferson-McDyess-Duncan was +78 in 8 minutes of play.”
This should be our strongest line-up. That said, I would also play plenty of Hill AND Blair. Blair gives us the best young, explosive low post presence, which if given the chance can exploit the Suns lack of size/strength in the paint, and also allow us to regain the rebounding advantage. And I’m convinced that Hill will come back strong in game two, and give us a solid compliment in the back court. He’ll learn from his experience from game one.
I’m sorry, but Mason does not offer us ANYTHING at this time. DO NOT play him at all, except in case of EMERGENCY.
Bonner can only be in if he has the aggression & confidence to launch & make enough threes in 6-10 minute segments. If not, we can not afford to give him too many minutes, because his lack of quickness on the defensive end could hurt us.
I’d like to know what Hairston’s injury status is. DO YOU, TIM, or any of your partners know what’s going on with him. His game in spot minutes could help us in critical match-ups.
Otherwise, I would use Temple over Mason, particularly when Dragic is in the game.
Bogans is okay to use in spot minutes also, if he can play steady like he did in game one.
“Blair-Bonner-Ginobili-Mason-Parker and Blair-Bonner-Ginobili-Hill-Mason were +49 and +85, respectively. (Although, it’s only one game, and they didn’t play many minutes together. Do you hear the refrain?) But if Popovich needs to play Mason to provide Parker, Hill or Ginobili rest and, at the same time, prevent Bonner from hurting the team, these lineups make sense.”
NO!!! This is a perfect example of the weaknesses in SIMPLY using +/- to come to any definitive conclusions about line-ups. Do not use MASON UNLESS WE HAVE AN EMERGENCY (i.e., half the team ends up fouling out, or on injured reserve!).
“Better yet, the Spurs could try someone like Garrett Temple if Mason looks like a train wreck by the time he reaches the scorer’s table. If Mason’s not making shots, and he hasn’t been for something like 5 months, it’s hard to justify his playing time. Mason hasn’t shot better than .258 from deep since February. He’s 1-11 this postseason.”
Yes!!!! If for some reason we need to have two of our top three guards out at the same time, WE PLAY TEMPLE, NOT MASON!!
Finally, we need to get over this, “we can’t play Duncan with Blair” nonsense. It’s not rocket science. TD can simply play more out off the low block when he’s in the game with Blair. And please, think also of the ADVANTAGES of playing those two together, and lets have a balanced assessment here!
I think Bonner should not play this series and Temple, Hariston, and Mahinmi should come off the bench. The Suns have a young run and gun bench. I think Pop should match them with the young guys for a few minuets.
From Spurs Team Report:
“DeJuan Blair was named to the NBA All-Rookie first team after averaging 7.8 points and 6.4 rebounds in 18.2 minutes a game. He averaged just 9.0 minutes in the six-game, first-round series against Dallas but was a hustling, diving force when on the floor with 4.2 points and 4.3 rebounds.”
Congratulations to DeJuan! Now give him some minutes, PLEASE!
Hairston injury status is irrelevant. If he dresses someone else has to go inactive. I’d vote for Mason, but I’m not holding my breath.
Tim, please shoot better from the line.
(As a Spurs fan, I’ve long wondered why the shooting coaches let him hang the ball down in front so long, only to quickly snap it up and shoot. Why not a more smooth and fluid routine? Or maybe he should just set up four feet over and bank ‘em in, haha.)
fuck mason… just sayin’
+- really has no value in this small a sample size. I wouldn’t use any playoff only numbers to evaluate lineups, only ones from the whole regular season. It does tell us Hill was a problem, but I could see that just watching the game. This is where coaching comes in. Either Pop sees a matchup problem with Hill and sends him to the bench where he may get better matchups, or he thinks it a fluke for game for the sophmore guard and sticks as is. I don’t know, hopefully Pop does.
Playing Mason or Bogans is a mistake. Sure, every once in a while one may due something good, but you can in no way count on it which means little to no time in the playoffs. They had their chance. Time to move on.
I think we all need to come to the realization that Ian or Malik isn’t going to contribute this playoffs.
They played spareingly during the regular season. And knowing Pop’s propensity to stick with his veterans (Mason, Roger Jr. and Bogans, Keith), to call for a game plan that includes these guys isn’t realistic. I doubt very, very seriously either will play any role whotsoever in the playoffs this year, no matter how much we’d like to see them.
Jim- Funny how everyone can see that Blair is good but Pop right? Another good point you have is Bonner’s shitty feet. Ive seen him get beat by his man on a fast break AFTER he misses a three HOW?????
Same with McDyess. Im sure you know by now I am not a fan of his and thought the pickup was one of the worst moves we have made. Hes too slow and does EXACTLY what the suns want us to do ONLY SHOOT Js. We should have kept Drew Gooden for small change.
This is why we need to play Blair more= he can run.
AND GIVE IAN A SHOT. We arent going to win any sort of tempo controlled game. This series will be won by whoever gets out and runs. Get guys who will run the fast break. How hard is it to figure out POP?
@TradeTp
“We arent going to win any sort of tempo controlled game. This series will be won by whoever gets out and runs. Get guys who will run the fast break. How hard is it to figure out POP?”
Not going to win a tempo controlled game? I take it you didn’t watch the past few Suns/Spurs’ series?
If you’re advocating us to run with the Suns, this will be quick series. We can’t keep up with the Suns and their 3 point shooting. They’ll gladly trade us 2′s for 3′s. This might be the worst case game plan we could come out with…..
doggydogworld
May 5th, 2010 at 12:50 pm
“Hairston injury status is irrelevant.”
It’s not irrelevant. If healthy, he’s a better match-up with Suns at the SG/SF position than at least two other players on our active roster, and should be activated, pronto!
Tyler
May 5th, 2010 at 1:43 pm
“I think we all need to come to the realization that Ian or Malik isn’t going to contribute this playoffs.”
Maybe so, but an answer as to why would be nice, and appropriate. Why should we be left to speculate?
“They played sparingly during the regular season. And knowing Pop’s propensity to stick with his veterans (Mason, Roger Jr. and Bogans, Keith), to call for a game plan that includes these guys isn’t realistic.”
I’m sorry, but to stick with Mason is insanity, Pop or no Pop.
I agree with letting Temple play over RMJ. Temple gave some quality minutes in the regular season. Who knows, he may pull a “Hill” (last year when George finally got to play and showed he belonged, then had the great summer) and end up part of the Spurs for years to come.
Can we just put it out there, that pretty much everyone would prefer to see anyone else on the roster play than Roger Mason Jr right now?
I mean if it is a decission between RMJ & Bonner/Ian/Hairston/Temple/Blair etc etc etc we are all on the same page right?
Joey Crawford, the ref suspended from the Playoffs for throwing Duncan out for clapping and wanting to fight him, is putting his impact on the game. Duncan gets his 1st foul from Crawford and Duncan gets fouled by Stoutamire in the post and it leads to a uncontested 3 pt by Richardson.
Popovich calls timeout to yell at… Joey Crawford for the no call. This has the makings of a long game with Duncan in foul trouble.
Wow, Bonner creates a turnover by denying the entry pass after a basket and Blair creates a turnover by fronting Stoutamire.
Can they keep it up?
We’re getting crushed on the boards again. Can we wake the f_ _ _ up! We’re down 11-2 on the offensive boards, 9 minutes left in the half!
Take Bonner out now. Ten minutes, o-2 from three!
Please, SOMEONE make a three!!!!!
Spurs are winning only because Roger Mason hasn’t played yet. Keep it up Popovich.
It would be nice if Bonner could make a 3 pointer when nobody is guarding him.
Finally Jim Henderson to the DARK SIDE!!!!
Pop-o-bitch is an asshole.
Bonner 0/2 1TO in 10 minutes
BLAIR- 2/2 0 TO 3 minutes….
How about that for +/-
Fire please…..
If we weren’t shooting an unusually high FG percentage (which will not last), we’d be getting our asses handed to us. GET ON THE BOARDS!!
Outcoached again…. by ALvin Gentry????
Tied @ halftime. Played good defense but, forgot to rebound the misses. Need Ginobili to get hot.
Garrett Temple did a great job playing one-on-one defense on Jason Richardson on the last possession of the half.
Roger Mason isn’t playing, YES!
The two players who shouldnt be playing are:
McDyess and Bonner.
I guess you just have to be a huge dipshit to coach in the NBA. Henderson youre in luck!!!
TradeTP you are clearly stupid. You sound like Mike Bascik right now.
Tied at half when Suns shoot 35% FG?!!
Out-rebounded 13-5 0n the offensive glass?!
Shoot 1 of 7 from three?!
Send Suns to the line 18 times?!
Bogans & Bonner 0-2, ZERO points, 5 fouls in 15 minutes combined?!
Blair, 2-2, 4 points, 2 rebounds, 1 steal, 1 foul, in FOUR MINUTES?!
WHY IS HE NOT PLAYING MORE?! YOU “CAN” PLAY HIM “WITH” DUNCAN, Pop!
If we don’t make second-half adjustments to take care of these problems, we’re asking for trouble.
Positives:
NO MASON!
Duncan looks VERY good
Parker looks very good
RJ looks better
We’re controlling the tempo a bit better
Turnovers are okay
Limited Suns fastbreak points better
We did better scoring in the paint
Overall, playing better “D” tonight
Great comment Kevin you idiot.
Thanks.
I really dont think we are playing better D. We’re giving up all kinds of second shots.
Great play by McDoosh to rebound the ball out of bounds.
George Hill is killing the Spurs. 3 second violation because he wouldn’t shoot. A Richardson layup after a Duncan block. A Richardson layup on a cut to the basket.
George Hill can’t guard Richardson. Period.
George Hill can’t guard Grant Hill. Period.
George Hill is being used like toilet paper. Bring Bogans back in the game.
I would almost agree lv, but he has hit some shots tonight.
Whereas Bonner the worst player in the NBA is getting minutes shooting 12%… WTF.
Announcers JUST SAID Bonner has to make shots to get PT because he is a LIABILITY IN EVERY OTHER ASPECT OF THE GAME.
Fire pop hire Kiki
Who should be coming in the game is BLAIR!! We’re getting trounced on the offensive boards, and Blair is our best offensive rebounder! This is not rocket science!
Duncan with 4 fouls with 2 minutes to go in the 3rd period.
Joey Crawford officiated Spurs game equals Tim Duncan in foul trouble.
Read my previous posts.
Spurs outscored by 9 pts at the FT line in a Joey Crawford officiated Spurs game thru 3 quarters. Twice as many FT attempts, 24 to 12. Hard to win 5 on 8.
Is anyone surprised?
If Bonner werent playing they wouldnt have 6 extra chances 4 threes and we wouldnt have a TO and 5 misses… Thats like 30 points right there.
It takes TD to be in foul trouble to give Blair any minutes?! Ridiculous!
By the way, Manu STILL has only ONE field goal?! Come on, Manu, lets go! It’s the fourth period. Turn it on!
Referees are going to ensure a Suns victory.
3 fouls on Suns post ups in the 1st 3 minutes in the 4th qtr. One on Blair, one on Jefferson, one on Parker.
5 on 8 is a hard way to win.
We’ve proceeded to make Dudley & Frye look like super-stars. What a joke.
The Spurs will NEVER, EVER win a playoff game officiated by Joey Crawford.
anyone know why mcdyess hasn’t played since 4 minutes left in the 3rd?
Why, with 2 minutes left down just 6, are we taking 20 ft. jumpers, Hill, RJ???!!! T H I N K!!!!!!!
MANU, YOU need to drive the ball to the rim, NOW!!
I’ve been wanting to say this for a long time. But I’ve never wanted to. Now I do…
Richard Jefferson is my LEAST favorite Spur ever…. and it’s not even close. Not by a long shot.
When Jefferson’s man is taking away the lob to the post for Duncan, why doesn’t Jefferson cut to the basket? Why stand on the weak side in the corner for a skip pass? Cut to the basket and catch a lob pass for an easy dunk or layup. I don’t understand. Jefferson can’t make 3 pt shots or even 15 ft jumpers with consistency. Why doesn’t Jefferson cut to the basket and post up in the lane so he gets a layup? A lob pass over Duncan’s head to the other block for a dunk is an easy pass to make. When Jefferson’s man gets in the paint to help, just follow him and catch a lob for a dunk or an easy post up on the block. It’s an easy adjustment to make.
thats cause rj has az in his heart! now what was all this business of a spurs sweep, or spurs in 5? cocky sob’s
As the biggest spurs fan out there im quite sad to see that our team will not pass 2nd round
LV – in reference to the RJ standing. Its becuase the bullshit offense still runs directly through Duncan and a pick and roll game.
For all those who said POP was a HOF’er heres another instance of why hes a loser.
Im sure Wayne Winston will have something clever to say about Bonner and how great he is.
wow that spurs bandwagon is sure unloading quick. and after only 2 losses!