Tall Brazilian: “I’ve always wanted to visit the River Walk”

by

(Ed. Note: Mea culpa. Originally I incorrectly referred to Tiago as a Spaniard, but a few of our beloved commenters took the time to note my mistake.)

Ok, Tiago Splitter didn’t really say that. But Josean Quereta, president of Caja Laboral, Splitter’s Spanish Club, did say Splitter wants to play in the NBA.

Via the Express-News:

Quereta said he understands it is Splitter’s “intent and desire” to join the NBA next season.

Splitter, the Spurs’ 2007 first-round draft pick and the MVP of the Spanish League this season, “wants to compete in the best league in the world,” Quereta said.

Hey, don’t the Spurs own his rights? Does that mean, if he comes to the NBA, he’ll have to play for San Antonio? I’d be cool with that.

  • Jim Henderson

    By the way, I think Philly might take the gamble on Cousins at #2. If anyone can groom that guy, Doug Collins has as good of shot as any. And thus, Turner could potentially fall to number four (T-Wolves), because I think the Nets want a PF, and will therefore select Favors. Just a guess.

  • td4life

    @Jim Henderson–
    I was referring to the rumor of TP for Murphy and the #10, which I see as more realistic for both sides b/c Indy badly needs a PG, and wants to dump Murphy’s contract. I see a mid-draft trade such as this as SA’s only way to draft a lottery bigman. And I went on to state that I am not in favor of such a move, unless we can’t get Splitter, get value back for RJ, or both. If we are otherwise stuck with the bigs we have, then I might consider trading TP.

    I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Philly go big. Minny foolishly would pass on Cousins even at #4, and they are in love with Turner. So maybe these 2 teams should swap picks, and trade some other assets while they are at it?

  • Bushka

    Harris wasn’t exactly enthralled to be playing for the little General again by the way.

    He carried on about it despite the fact that he seemed to be the leader of a 12 win team just this season past.

    I don’t honestly think that Harris is the goods. He was predicted to become a fantastic top flight PG with excellent Defensive credentials and it just hasn’t happened. If he was all that I don’t think the Nets would have sucked as much as they did this season.

  • Jim Henderson

    Bushka
    June 18th, 2010 at 6:26 pm

    “I don’t honestly think that Harris is the goods.”

    Sure, but he may be good enough to mitigate the loss of Parker, because we still have Hill & Manu (& Temple), and it would of course also provide us with the opportunity to potentially get a solid big with the #3 pick, which “could” be a long-term boon for the franchise (remember, TD only has a 2-4 less productive years left). So to me, that at least sounds like a reasonable area of discussion for both clubs. By the way, NJ would have to have some sort of agreement with Parker for a long-term (4 yr.+) contract extension to have any interest in this deal, and Parker may balk at that.

  • Patrick

    Tiago Splitter will help us and possibily keep Parker off the trade block. We can really start to compete with the Lakers in the West with Splitter, Duncan, McDyess, and Blair. With the 20th pick it looks like we can get a replacement long term for Jefferson. Damion James would be a great fit. The future is bright for the Spurs with or without Parker. One to Two year window for the championship. GO SPURS GO.

  • bigtee34

    I think tp is looking to head to a bigger city anyway. I know his wife wants to, I think the nets trade isnt out of this world when you consider he might not resign then we should get the most we can. I think devin harris would be a homerun.

  • eeg

    I’m usually opposed to trading parker for just a pick and throw-ins but what about parker and rj to the warriors for monta Ellis, Anthony randolph , azubukie/ morrow but well the spurs would have to take on Corey magettes contract for the deal to match.

    The spurs would get a decent point back plus a young big that should keep getting better, some reliable 3pt shooting and well another rj replica… and theyd still have their MLE to sign splitter hopefully

    The warriors would get two expiring contracts but two players still in their prime aswell as some extreme cap relief next year.

    I find this trade to be somewhat possible because the warriors franchise has been in a state of turmoil therefore they might be willing to blow up their team and start rebuilding with curry as the franchise player, besides if they want curry to be the starting point, they could trade tp for some younger pieces being that he is an expiring deal and all.

    Now if the spurs could manage to swap picks with the warriors it be great but I’m trying to keep it realistic…

  • td4life

    Devin Harris was campaigning for Avery Johnson to be the Nets next coach back in April.

  • http://espn.com Jacob

    What about a trade that gave Parker, and our number 20 pick and a sign and trade for Mahinmi to the Hawks for Bibby and Horford? We get a vet point guard with shooting range and good creation to come off the bench, and a high energy big whose a good defender and a good o-rebounder. The hawks get another legit all-star and finisher in Parker to surround Johnson and Smith, a athletic big that might work better in their tempo, and another solid 1st round draft choice to shop SF’s and C’s. The money works, and I can see upside for both teams. What do y’all think?

  • Mark

    @ idahospur – I agree with you. It’s time for somebody else in the West to advance to the Finals. Of course, I’m hoping for the Spurs to be that team next year. Let’s just hope for the best during this off season! :)

  • Easy B

    @Jim
    I agree with the remarks about Tony’s pedigree and I think the spurs are thinking the same way. The more I think about it, the more I think there won’t be too much trading for the top picks in the draft unless they are swaps for similar high drafts and change. Reason: GFC impact – everyone wants the value of cheap rookie contracts right now. Underperforming franchises are likely modelling off what OKC are doing, rather than what the lakers are doing. The lakers are full of stars in their prime – meaning trying to build a team to beat them is a 2 year window. In 3 years time? Rule changes, collective bargain decisions, salary cap levels etc will have an impact on what makes an elite team in the NBA. The Spurs are spending coin now, but I think they are also trying to inexpensively develop talent to build around the post- Duncan and Manu era…..you need a little luck though to speed the process to championship contenders again. Maybe this isn’t the year to gamble on draft picks though…

  • idahospur

    Spurs have to be thinking future long-term at this point. Sure it would be nice to get Duncan another ring, but what happened to Houston after the Hakeem years? I don’t think the FO wants that.

  • muwu

    I think that any amount of hardship is worth a championship. Was Boston’s single championship worth the trouble they could have rebuilding? Absolutely. Screw the long term future. You get every championship you can. It’s not for Duncan. It’s for all of us, all of them.

  • Trade Tp

    DieHard- Tiago top ten in the world??? Jesus.

    Tony Parker isnt a top 5 PG. Rondo, Nash, Dwilliams, Paul, Chauncy…..

    I dont think we should ever let Bibby on our team. First of all he just throws up bricks, and hes ugly as sin.

    I like the Harris thing. We would get size, more athletic, and better shooting.

    I agree that we have a grade trade piece in Parker and should look to get something out of it (player and pick) before we just let him walk. Hes French anyway so good riddance.

    Funny how my name took tons of bashing and now it seems as though you all have jumped on!

  • http://www.poundingtherock.com Tim C.

    So Devin Harris is a better shooter than Tony now? Funny, Tony’s a career 49% shooter, and 31% from 3-point range. Devin Harris is a career 44% shooter, and 30% from 3-point range. Better shooter, my foot. And he doesn’t have Tony’s speed, either. And you’re probably better off not even mentioning the assist rate. Tony is better than Harris at pretty much every part of the game, but maybe you don’t see that simply because he’s French.

  • Hobson13

    Tim C.
    June 19th, 2010 at 8:55 am
    “Tony is better than Harris at pretty much every part of the game, but maybe you don’t see that simply because he’s French.”

    Tony is indeed better than Devin Harris, but there’s also a solid chance he walks at the end of this year or wants a much fatter contract. Devin is tied down for the next 3 years at $8.5mil/year or roughly 2/3 of what Parker is due to make. That’s a fairly reasonable contract if you consider his skills. Consider this: two seasons ago both Parker and Harris had career years. Parker averaged 22pt, 6.9 assts, and 3.1 rebounds on 50% shooting. Harris averaged 21.3pts, 6.9 assts, and 3.3 rebounds on 44% shooting. Besides the shooting percentage, (Tony had a better FG% and Harris a better FT%) their numbers were virtually identical. If we could get a good PG who is tied down for the next 3 years PLUS a top 3 pick for Parker, then this deal would make sense. At least from a Spurs perspective.

  • Big Whit

    I can’t wait to see Splitter, Manu and Blair on the floor at the same time. There will be some sick passing and putbacks going on.

  • Trade Tp

    Tim- Yes, Harris is a better shooter than tony. Harris can create a shot off the dribble, tony cant. Tony cant hit FTs either. Tony is a better pick and roll player whose FG% are raised due to his elite speed and finishing off the pick and roll.

    Harris would fit much better with Jefferson and Manu.

    Parker would be the logical choice if Duncan were 8 years younger.

    Devin and a top pick for Parker. It would be foolish to NOT do that

  • Jim Henderson

    Patrick
    June 18th, 2010 at 7:17 pm

    “We can really start to compete with the Lakers in the West with Splitter, Duncan, McDyess, and Blair.”

    No we can’t. Lets be rational.

  • td4life

    @Hobson13
    “If we could get a good PG who is tied down for the next 3 years. PLUS a top 3 pick for Parker, then this deal would make sense. At least from a Spurs perspective.”

    Yeah, “at least from a Spurs perspective.” I can’t believe so many of you guys are acting like NJ would do this. Why make stuff like this up. It ain’t happening. Keep in mind that:

    1) Prokhorov has already indicated he’s not inclined to throw money at a Boozer, Lee or Amare. You can bet on this, now that the defensive-minded Little General is in charge.
    2) Meanwhile, Favors is projected to become a defensive phenom. You think Avery wants to trade away the chance to develop an Amare talent into a great two-way all-NBA power forward? Just think if Amare had been drafted by a Greg Popovich type. You guys think they trade away the perfect compliment to the young center Lopez, just to get a marginal upgrade for Harris??
    3) Harris and AJ like each other alot. Harris was rooting for AJ to be their coach, over Coach K and others, months ago. AJ meanwhile, was always pushing for Devin Harris to be an all-star defensively, and would prefer Harris today over TP because of his defensive ability. Not to mention, he’s cheaper, younger, and locked-in under contract.

    As for it being (a never-gonna-happen, but) good trade for the Spurs, yes, it would potentially make us better in the long run to get a chance at a top of the lottery bigman, something that we might never be in the running to get for as long as TD has just played the previous year. And Harris would be a more than adequate, and cheaper, replacement for TP. But if we are in win-now mode, the move is questionable. Doesn’t matter though, cuz you guys might as well start coming up with Greg Oden scenarios or something.

    That said, I think it would be interesting to have polls on this site. Just to see how the votes stack up in favor of such hypothetical trades as this NJ one.

    On that note, anyone interested in giving up another Spanish league MVP’s rights to Houston for the #14, Ariza & Battier, and maybe Lowry in order to dump RJ? What if we have to include the #20?

  • mac

    td4life,

    uhh… maybe if we don’t have to give up the 20th pick, but only if we know we are picking up a good big somewhere else. Which I’m having trouble imagining. I guess if could also buy Orlando’s first rounder, which is for sale, then we could gamble one or two picks on Larry Sanders, Hassan Whiteside, or Kevin Seraphin? And still get Elliot Williams, James Anderson or both. Or even Xavier Henry. Your proposal makes losing out on Babbit, or Paul George a non-issue. No need to pick Quincy Pondexter or Stanley Robinson, either.

  • muwu

    Actually, speaking as a guy who follows the Nets, Harris wouldn’t be that hard to pry away. Unless you missed last season, he’s been very injury prone and his shooting totally vanished. Not to mention his defense vanished too. He was getting destroyed by role players last year like Jarrett Jack. His main problem is he’s more concerned about drawing the foul than he is about finishing. He just flips the ball up there, hoping for the call most of the time after contact. So yeah, Harris would not be hard to get. Not for Tony though, not like they could use him. They already have a ton of cap space now, Tony as an expiring would be useless.

    Oh and the Nets are pretty much guaranteed to pursue a top flight PF in the draft this year.

    And actually, Favors is pretty raw-ish and could just as likely turn out to be a bust. Trading the number 3 is not out of the question. But not for anything the Spurs could give. Even for Harris the Spurs don’t really have anything they could use. Outside of Tiago’s rights that is. They did after all ask for his rights in the Vince Carter negotiations before.

  • Hobson13

    @TD4life,

    Who really knows what is and isn’t possible when it comes to trades? Did anyone predict the Philly/Sacto trade this last week? Of course not. The only thing we can do is speculate as to what makes the most sense. I would bet that the Spurs make a move that none of us predicted, even after the dozens of trade speculations we’ve thrown around over the past several months.

    “1) Prokhorov has already indicated he’s not inclined to throw money at a Boozer, Lee or Amare.”

    I won’t even pretend to buy that. He’s also said he wants to win a championship within 5 years. If he truly wants to compete, how is he going to do that by not using the available cap space he has this summer? I’ve yet to see a team with massive cap space simply sit on it when it could be used to get (usually overpay) an available big name (and semi big name) FA. And this summer is stacked in the FA department. Lebron, Wade, and Bosh aren’t going to NJ. He would take one of the cats you mentioned in a second to pair him with Lopez.

    “2) Meanwhile, Favors is projected to become a defensive phenom. You think Avery wants to trade away the chance to develop an Amare talent into a great two-way all-NBA power forward?”

    Yes, it is possible that Favors could be special, but as Jim Henderson points out, it is FAR from any guarantee. Besides, who has Avery Johnson ever developed? When he went to Dallas, he walked onto a veteran team. He attempted to develop Harris for several seasons but then proceded to unload him to the Nets for Kidd.

    ” 3) Harris and AJ like each other alot.”

    Do they? If you read through the BS in this article, you see they’ve had far from a wonderful relationship. Of course Harris would present that differently now, but what do you expect. Avery is the new coach and isn’t leaving anytime soon.

    http://www.nj.com/nets/index.ssf/2010/06/despite_rocky_past_devin_harri.html

    “anyone interested in giving up another Spanish league MVP’s rights to Houston for the #14, Ariza & Battier, and maybe Lowry in order to dump RJ? What if we have to include the #20?”

    So we trade RJ and Splitter for two SF’s and the #14? (Kyle Lowry is a restricted agent and would complicate the deal) I like the idea of getting Ariza, but he and Battier are very similar players. Both are SF who are good defenders, but poor shooters. Sure our perimeter defense would be better, but neither can space the floor. By giving away Splitter, who would be able to come in and help Duncan? I suppose we could pick a PF or C at the #14 spot, but he probably wouldn’t be able to come in a make an immediate impact.

  • td4life

    @muwu

    That’s exactly my point. They don’t trade the #3 and Harris for TP. As for Splitter and TP for Harris and #3, that’s a gamble for both sides. This is the kind of move SA would make if they really think their near-term window is closed. Pop & Co have indicated interest Favors over Cousins (which is where all this speculation began), but NJ needs a PF more than a backup center.

  • Jim Henderson

    td4life
    June 19th, 2010 at 11:24 am

    I’m not sure why you keep “overvaluing a #3 pick”? Perhaps you missed a few previous posts I’ve made on the subject. Here’s two excerpts, from two separate posts:

    Jim Henderson
    June 4th, 2010 at 8:49 pm

    “……..Okay, I took a spin through the the 12 drafts from 1996 through 2007, with the intent to look at the draft picks 1-5 …….. Here’s what I found, draft # in parentheses:
    1-5 picks, just ONE all-star appearance or better:

    1996 – Iverson (1), Marbury (4), R. Allen (5)
    1997 – Duncan (1), Billups (3)
    1998 – Jamison (4), V. Carter (5)
    1999 – Brand (1), B. Davis (3)
    2000 – K. Martin (1)
    2001 – P. Gasol (3)
    2002 – Y. Ming (1)
    2003 – James (1), Anthony (3), Bosh (4), Wade (5)
    2004 – Howard (1)
    2005 – D. Williams (3), C. Paul (4)
    2006 – ZERO
    2007 – Durant (2)

    20 ONE-TIME or better all-stars out of 12 drafts from the top five picks. The MEDIAN is 1.5 one-time all-stars or better players yielded out of the top five picks in the average draft. Basically, a team has about a 30% chance of drafting a one-time or better all-star out of the top five picks. Average seasons played by the players listed in these drafts, about nine. By far, the best draft years for top five picks were 1996 and 2003.”

    As you can see, even the chance of getting a one-time or better all-star from the top five picks is not very high. Something to consider.”

    ……AND, the odds are even more unlikely to get a “franchise” player, which Tyler & I mutually agreed were the following players for the draft years 1996-2007:

    Iverson (1) (1996)
    Duncan (1) (1997)
    James (1) (2003)
    Wade (5) (2003)
    Howard (1) (2004)
    Williams (3) (2005)
    Paul (4) (2005)
    Durant (2) (2007)

    • Jim Henderson
    June 9th, 2010 at 12:46 pm

    “Lets hone in on the top five picks, since the common perception is that we would have a good chance at getting a “franchise player” if we were to somehow secure a top five pick, and acquiring a top five pick is often considered by many imperative to winning a championship.

    I’ll start by just listing some facts from my “little study”:

    – draft years looked at – 1996 through 2007
    – number of draft years looked at – 12
    – TOTAL number of top five picks – 60
    – Number of “franchise players” – 8
    – Number of drafts “franchise players” came from – 6
    – Number of “franchise players” that were #1 picks – 4
    – Number of “franchise players” that were 1-3 picks – 6

    From this data:

    – overall, cumulative odds of drafting a franchise player from one of the top five picks – 13%
    – odds of having just ONE franchise player come out of the top five picks in any given draft year – 33%
    – odds of having TWO franchise players come out of the top five picks in any given draft year – 17%
    – odds the number one pick in any given draft becomes a franchise player – 33%
    – odds the number 2-3 pick in any given draft becomes a franchise player – 17%
    – odds the number 4-5 pick in any given draft becomes a franchise player – 17%
    – odds the number two pick in any given draft becomes a franchise player – 8%
    – odds the number three pick in any given draft becomes a franchise player – 8%
    – odds the number four pick in any given draft becomes a franchise player – 8%
    – odds the number five pick in any given draft becomes a franchise player – 8%

    Granted, this is limited data, based on just 12 years of drafts, but as you can see, the chances of drafting a franchise player appear to be very slim, even for those teams that get into the top-five selection order of the draft, by virtue of a POOR record, a “big” trade, and/or a bit of LUCK. Furthermore, you can see that the “cream of the crop” generally rises quickly from pick five up to pick one (4 franchise players from the top pick, just one each from picks #2, #3, #4, & #5).

    Thus, for those that want to trade up to the number 2-5 picks, you have approximately an 8% chance of drafting a “franchise player”. I’d think long and hard on that one. Generally speaking, in my view, it’s simply too risky to trade a guy like Parker for less than a number one pick, which just isn’t going to happen.”

    Bottom-line: the #3 pick in this draft has about a 1 in 4 chance of just getting selected to the all-star team just one-time or more, and a 1 in 13 chance of becoming something “really” special. So giving up a 3-time all-star at age 28, with 3 championships, and a FINALS MVP, who’s a better fit with his former Spur teammate & new “Pop-like” coach of the Nets, for a better than average point with NO all-star appearances, and essentially the crap shoot of a #3 pick, is not an outrageous stretch. And I’ll tell you right now, Prokhorov would LOVE to have Parker running the show with Brooks Lopez & Amare side by side on that front line. That team has a chance to make the playoffs in their first year together in the East, because they also have a budding triple-double machine in Williams at the 3 spot, Courtney Lee at SG, and Ji coming off the bench.

    As I said though, the key is, can they sign one of the better free agent PF’s, AND can they get Parker an adequate long-term contract extension that he would be interested in accepting, with still the unknowns of FA ahead AFTER draft day? That’s where I see the timing and financial practicalities of the deal ultimately spelling doom for the trade, but not because Parker would “clearly” not be worth it to New Jersey.

  • Jim Henderson

    td4life
    June 19th, 2010 at 11:24 am

    “……anyone interested in giving up another Spanish league MVP’s rights to Houston for the #14, Ariza & Battier, and maybe Lowry in order to dump RJ? What if we have to include the #20?”

    Well, for one, NJ would not give up BOTH Ariza & Battier in such a deal. And secondly, we would have an overlap at SF (which is a problem that will become more apparent for the Rockets this year with the late season addition of Kevin Martin, and BOTH Ariza & Battier healthy), and would still not have filled our gaping hole: TALL DEFENDER IN THE PAINT. And finally, I don’t see a team like Houston being particularly interested in RJ’s expiring deal.

    Hobson13
    June 19th, 2010 at 12:29 pm

    “I like the idea of getting Ariza, but he and Battier are very similar players. Both are SF who are good defenders, but poor shooters. Sure our perimeter defense would be better, but neither can space the floor.”

    I think the Rockets keep Ariza for the simple fact that he’s younger than Battier. But actually, in my view, Battier is a better fit on the Spurs because he’s less of a steals guy, more fundamentally sound defensively (as well as a better shot-blocker), and in fact does a much better job of stretching the floor (career 3-point % of 38.5, versus 32.1).

    I actually would be open to the following, to get Battier: RJ & McDyess for Battier & Jared Jefferies. The Rockets might go for that, because they have significant redundancy going on at the SF (as you noted, Ariza & Battier have VERY similar games). At least RJ gives them a better rebounding, up-tempo look at the SF, and a large expiring contract for 2011. Dice gives them experience, size, depth, mid-range shooter from the PF spot (and a team option for 2011). Yao & Scola could use some veteran help on that front line to help battle the Lakers by committee. Battier on the other hand, really stabilizes our perimeter “D”, and can knock down the three. Jefferies gets us a bit younger and taller, opens the way more for Blair, and has a 6.5 million dollar expiring deal (Battier as well, at 6.9 million – good chance to resign him). Shane Battier is a great character guy, a very consistent player, and he fits our team like a glove. That would be one MAJOR problem (in my view) taken care of. Now if we can add Splitter and another shooter, we’d be heading in the right direction.

    That said, I’d just as soon make the deal with GS, because Turiaf is a better fit than Jeffries, though it doesn’t address our perimeter “D” as well.

  • td4life

    @jim henderson

    It’s not so much that “I” overvalue the #3 pick, it’s that I understand that lottery teams value their top picks very highly. For the same reason that we’d take Harris and the #3, they will keep them. NJ has a lot of holes. I have already stated repeatedly that I don’t buy the AJ dislikes Harris line. And Harris preferred AJ to all other candidates well prior of his hire. The #3 gives NJ a lot more upside than TP does over Harris. Most of the FA PFs are defensively weak. They have a young center and can add some vet leadership w/o giving up their talent, so they will put together a team that can be competitive long term. (Avery said in his press conference that, in addition to this summer, “there’s always NEXT summer.” when talking about adding talent, and their cap space.) If Harris and AJ really don’t work out they can trade later, or just sign a Billups, TP, CP3 strait-up at a future time. Avery is one coach, given the team he captained, and given the troubles he faced coaching the Mavs, that I am QUITE SURE is dreaming about two things in particular: (1) Twin Towers (2) A great defensive bigman… they keep the pick. Coaches and GMs tend to think that they are gonna be the smart guys who draft well, and other guys are gonna draft busts, owners also tend to get giddy with the possible upside… they keep the pick.

    As for the Houston trade…
    I was just trying to cleverly demonstrate how even a trade that gets us great talent back, including an ideal spur (Battier), and lots of athletic youth and potential, is HIGHLY problematic, because Tiago Splitter is really the best new asset we can hope for. He is, essentially, THE key. Regardless of the hype, I do not think a better bigman is attainable by the Spurs. Unless POP & RC are enthralled with several draft sleepers enough to bet on the more distant future, and/or believe in, say,Tyson Chandler, we can not expect much. Nor expect much improvement next year. To that end, I am having trouble imaging any better scenario than Splitter + the GS trade. Unless we somehow pull off a major multi-team trade. (BTW, I think Azubuike, Hill, and Manu represents sufficient shooting, and that Maggatte, et al improve our perimeter defence. I also think GS must realize that their Stephan Curry window is not gonna be a Maggette and Turiaf window, so they might as well cut payroll, acquire picks, and develop young talent.)

  • Ian

    Jesus… I thought TP for Harris + #3 was a dead subject? This scenario is even more improbable (it was pretty much far-fetched from the beginning) now that AJ is the head coach of the Nets. Even if the Nets are willing for such a trade, they’ll demand at least Splitter and the #20 pick/Blair in addition to TP. I like Favors a lot, but at this point when Splitter will likely sign with the Spurs and Favors won’t likely contribute immediately, it’d be much safer to hold on to Splitter and hope that #20 develops into a special player.

  • td4life

    Ian (not to be confused with “Yan”) gets it.

  • td4life

    Isn’t it reasonable to anticipate that Tiago Splitter will instantly be the best center we’ve had since Robinson left?

    Perhaps it’s overly optimistic to think he can come in and be offer equivalent value to an ’09-’10 Bogut or Noah, but is it? I think anticipating production on par with, or superior to, what Charlotte got out of Nzar is the minumum (and that’s not to bad)… overall equivalent production to young guys Brook Lopez, Marc Gasol, Nene, Okafor for that matter… better return than Roy Hibbert right out of the gate is not at all unreasonable… which probably makes him a top 15, maybe even top 10 center even his rookie year. Certainly by year 2 and 3. It’s more a question of how he performs against the likes of LA in the playoffs, which I think is the only real sticking point in terms of his upside.

  • Easy B

    @t d4life
    I tend to agree with you about GM sentiment with draft picks. I’m not sure its just the management that gets giddy with the picks though…being a business and all, one creates alot of hope bringing in all this fresh talent that will one day “win it all”. That sells season tickets and jerseys…
    Spurs are selling ‘the big ol’ engine that still can’ with a few young pieces.
    @jim
    disagree about Iverson and Williams as franchise players….top tier talent yes, but franchise builders no….Iverson had fantastic defenders around him for a year or so when they made the finals, and he was in his absolute prime…but a franchise player to build a team around for a decade? We all saw how that went. Franchise player is handed out way to easily in my opinion. Kobe, Duncan, Shaq, Lebron, maybe Wade, maybe Durant, maybe Howard, definitely KG…you get my drift…not Bosh, or Jermaine Oneal or tracy Mc grady or Vince. See the difference between dominant offensive players and dominant players period. One sells jerseys, the other end of season parades.

  • Easy B

    On that whole franchise player tip – to clarify my thoughts: A franchise player to me is someone who is essentially untradeable with the exception of a past of prime player who has played for other teams who is due $20m like Shaq….I ammend my take on Wade to “probably” franchise player. I wouldn’t trade Timmy even if he was getting $30m next year – everything the franchise stands for would be wiped out in one trade. Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitski are interesting dilemmas; they are so valuable to a team, yet they require alot more pieces to succeed than the standard franchise player. Maybe they are franchise leaders, rather than “the franchise”?

  • Hobson13

    td4life
    June 20th, 2010 at 2:55 am
    “To that end, I am having trouble imaging any better scenario than Splitter + the GS trade.”

    After all is said and done, I agree. The GS trade is the quickest way to rebuild the bench with young/talented players and Splitter should alleviate Duncan sufficiently. IF the GS trade were made, I would suggest us drafting a big man at the #20 instead of a SF, unless of course someone incredible falls to us. Since the GS trade would net us Maggette, we wouldn’t have an immediate need for a SF. I would certainly like us to look at a long, athletic PF like Larry Sanders who although would be a long-term project, may pay handsome dividends in 2-3 years.

  • http://capitolproductsinc.com Jacob

    Would somebody mind recapping the trade proposal to GS? Apparantly i missed it. Thanks -

  • Hobson13

    Jacob,

    There were actually two lines of thought regarding the GS trade. Let’s assume they ask for the #20 pick along with RJ. The two proposed trades would look like this:

    #1) RJ and #20 for Corey Maggette, Kelenna Azubuike, and Ronny Turiaf

    #2) RJ and #20 for Corey Maggette, Kelenna Azubuike, and Anthony Randolph

    Realistically, if either of these trades went down, we would have a starting SF and two really nice bench players. This trade plus Tiago Splitter would get us younger, bigger, and also help our outside shooting.

  • Jim Henderson

    td4life
    June 20th, 2010 at 12:41 am

    “The #3 gives NJ a lot more upside than TP does over Harris.”

    Perhaps, but how about if we throw the #20 pick into the deal? That is, if the Spur FO REALLY likes Favors, Cousins, etc.

    Otherwise, as I said, the GS deal is our safest, best option.

    Ian
    June 20th, 2010 at 2:01 am

    “Jesus… I thought TP for Harris + #3 was a dead subject? This scenario is even more improbable (it was pretty much far-fetched from the beginning) now that AJ is the head coach of the Nets.”

    I’ve always stated from the beginning that the deal has only an outside chance of ever coming to fruition, but to suggest it’s completely far-fetched, and even more so with the addition of Johnson as coach is ridiculous, in my view. Anyone who thinks that Johnson would rather have Harris over TP is either crazy or clueless. In fact, Harris is only ONE year younger than TP.

    Easy B
    June 20th, 2010 at 3:53 am

    “disagree about Iverson and Williams as franchise players….”

    Geez, what do you got to do to be a “franchise” player? Iverson averaged 30 points per game FIVE times in his career, had more than 2 steals per game 9 straight times upon entering the league, and led a mediocre team to the NBA Finals in 2000-2001.

    All Williams has done is averaged 19+ points & 10+ assists per game in three of his firsts five years in the league, all by the age of 25 (the ONLY other guys to EVER do that were Oscar Robertson, Isiah Thomas, Kevin Johnson, & Chris Paul!), and led his Jazz team to the playoffs in each of his first five years in the NBA.

    If we leave them off the list, you’re just making my main case that much stronger: it’s VERY difficult, and you have to be VERY LUCKY, to draft a “franchise” player with one of the first five picks in the draft.

    “One sells jerseys, the other end of season parades.”

    Remember, not ALL “franchise” players have the good fortune to win titles. For example, Karl Malone, Charles Barkley, George Gervin, etc. were clearly “franchise” players.

    “Steve Nash and Dirk Nowitski are interesting dilemmas; they are so valuable to a team, yet they require alot more pieces to succeed than the standard franchise player. Maybe they are franchise leaders, rather than “the franchise”?”

    ALL “franchise” players REQUIRE A LOT more pieces to win a title, and NONE of them are “the franchise”, not even TD. You appear to be elevating “franchise PLAYERS” to god-like status. They are more simply, the most valuable PLAYER of the franchise, the heart of the system on the court, and are able to CONSISTENTLY dominate games, particular BIG, pressure-packed ones.

  • td4life

    @Jacob

    RJ (and the #20, if necessary. Or next years first rounder, instead?) for Maggette, Azubuike, and Turiaf.

    It was rumored that Anthony Randolf was available to move Maggette, or more likely Monta Ellis. But he would need net them more talent in return than just an expiring contract. He’s young and very skilled. Jim Henderson pointed out that Turiaf is a better fit for the spurs, and Randolf’s development minutes would conflict with the D Blair’s.

    Another variation is Anthony Morrow, who is a restricted FA and would be a good fit in Chicago, Sacramento, next to LeBron, etc… places he wouldn’t not have to worry about sharing PT with Manu & Hill, and teams could offer him bigger $$, we’ll see. But Morrow would be a very exciting player to add. He’s a hard worker, a great marksman, and has stated his goal to become a great hustle defender. Azubuike has a good all-around game. Maggette is big and physical, is aggressive, draws fouls all night long, has shown flashes of his defensive prowess against Kobe, etc, and has been sought by Pop during both his FA summers. Finally there is the option of Reggie Williams. Lesser scenarios have the Spurs getting just, say, Turiaf and Maggette for RJ, and having to take on, say, Brandon Wright.

    In addition to RJ (who is a better fit in GS), if GS gets Wesley Johnson or Aminu, then Maggette, Azubuike and/or Morrow are expendable. They could also be more willing to part with these guys if they could draft a good wing with the #20.

    This rotation arguably addresses all of our major needs:

    TD, Splitter, McD, Blair, Turiaf
    Parker, Hill, Ginobili, Maggette, Azubuike

    (Or, perhaps you subsequently trade 2 of the above for one superior player?)

  • mac

    td4life
    June 20th, 2010 at 12:02 pm

    “Parker, Hill, Ginobili, Maggette, Azubuike”

    Dude, that’s a virtual 5-headed monster! For real. Especially if Tony improves his 3-pointer this summer, not to mention Hill showing more growth next season. But, smart, high percentage scorers across the perimeter, I like it…. I guess this means I’m rooting for Cousins to go to Philadelphia or Minnesota, and Sactown drafting Greg Monroe, setting up Golden State to draft an SF. On the other hand, maybe RJ alone is enough to make them swap, and they’ll want to replace Turiaf’s minutes. Who knows, I just hope we do get a significant overhaul as talented as this, this summer.

  • http://capitolproductsinc.com Jacob

    Thank you Hobson and Td4life for explaining it again. I can’t argue; those are both excellent trade options. I personally like the idea of maggette, azubuike and turiaf to meet more immediate needs. So, if Splitter comes over, who would fill out our roster? Temple, Hairston, Bonner? looks good!

    Parker – Hill – Temple
    Ginobili – Hairston
    Maggette, Azubuike
    Duncan – McDyess – Bonner
    Splitter – Turiaf – Blair

  • Ian

    I wouldn’t call a trade with GS unrealistic, but considering that the Spurs will pay heavy loads of luxury tax in the years to come esp. with Maggette on board, I just don’t see that happening. Unless Spurs are intending to let Parker walk after next season, RJ’s contract should just be left to expire and give Spurs some financial relief – that’s what I think anyway.

  • Trade Tp

    I think that the GS trade would be the best way to go.

    Spurs get: Corey Maggette, Kelenna Azubuike, and Anthony Randolph

    GS get: RJ / 20

    We dont have to play McDoosh anymore. Turiaf really isnt a better fit for SA compared to Randolph. Hes a worse rebounder scorer and FT shooter than Blair or Randolph.

    WE NEED ATHLETIC PLAYERS inside to fit this “system.”

  • Jim Henderson

    td4life
    June 20th, 2010 at 12:02 pm

    Yeah, that post pretty well summarizes why a deal with the Warriors is the best combination of being “realistic”, and filling the most holes on our roster in one fell swoop.

    “This rotation arguably addresses all of our major needs:

    TD, Splitter, McD, Blair, Turiaf
    Parker, Hill, Ginobili, Maggette, Azubuike

    (Or, perhaps you subsequently trade 2 of the above for one superior player?)”

    That’s a pretty competitive team, with a good mix of talent, youth and experience. It would put us in the ballgame in year one, if everything went just right. Otherwise, after a full year of playing together, year two should be a killer season (Blair, Hill, Azubuike, & Splitter just getting that much better, and a burgeoning chemistry – maybe add a younger front line guy instead of McDyess in year one, or year two).

    Ian
    June 20th, 2010 at 3:34 pm

    “Unless Spurs are intending to let Parker walk after next season, RJ’s contract should just be left to expire and give Spurs some financial relief – that’s what I think anyway.”

    Understandable, but you’re NOT going to win a championship during Duncan’s window that way. Hey, look at the Lakers salaries! (I know it’s a “big” market, but …..). Also, Turiaf & Azubuike have expiring deals for a total of about 7.3 mil, so if things don’t go well this year, we don’t HAVE to resign them, or pick up the option on McDyess (4.5 million). And TD has just two more years on his contract, after which his 21 mil. comes off, or he is extended at a much lower salary. Paying the luxury tax is simply the price an owner pays if he truly wants a shot at “winning”.

    Trade Tp
    June 20th, 2010 at 4:12 pm

    “Turiaf really isnt a better fit for SA compared to Randolph. Hes a worse rebounder scorer and FT shooter than Blair or Randolph.”

    For one thing, Randolph has a smaller salary under contract, and has more upside, which are reasons why GS would be much less likely to part with him for RJ. And secondly, Randolph would invariably take minutes away from Blair, since both are very young, talented guys whose best position is the same, PF (THREE power forwards demanding time is way too much). Turiaf does not present a problem of REQUIRING minutes, is bigger and a better shot-blocker (something we need), and could platoon well at CENTER with Splitter.

  • td4life

    @Ian
    I second Jim Henderson’s response to your comments above. If the Spurs plan on contending for a championship in the TD era, they have to spend… I believe that if they were gonna shell out last season for RJ and McD, they’d spend similarly to put together this proposed, and much better, roster. And, again, there are plenty of expirings along the way to TD resigning in the summer after next.

    So, Ian, of the 2 teams involved, I really don’t see SA as the one which would hesitate or have any misgivings with this trade.

  • Hobson13

    Trade Tp
    June 20th, 2010 at 4:12 pm

    “We dont have to play McDoosh anymore. Turiaf really isnt a better fit for SA compared to Randolph. Hes a worse rebounder scorer and FT shooter than Blair or Randolph. WE NEED ATHLETIC PLAYERS inside to fit this “system.”

    I agree. While both trades would vastly improve the Spurs, Randolph provides MUCH more scoring, shot blocking, and upside potential than Turiaf. He, Azebuike, Hill, Splitter, and Blair would be a NICE young core.

    Jim Henderson
    June 20th, 2010 at 5:54 pm
    “For one thing, Randolph has a smaller salary under contract, and has more upside, which are reasons why GS would be much less likely to part with him for RJ.”

    You do have a point with this, however, look at the Warriors depth chart. They have two legitimate C’s on their roster; Biedrins and Turiaf. Turiaf, like Randolph, is also a low cost option at center. On the other hand, they have 3 legitimate PF’s on their roster including Randolph. With the #6 pick and #20 they can easily pick up another PF to replace Randolph. My point is that a case could be made that Randolph is more expendable than Turiaf.

    “And secondly, Randolph would invariably take minutes away from Blair, since both are very young, talented guys whose best position is the same, PF (THREE power forwards demanding time is way too much).”

    I don’t think Pop would play 3 PF’s. First of all, if this trade went down, Bonner is bye-bye (which would help our salary cap situation a bit). Secondly, McDyess wouldn’t really even be needed. That would leave Blair starting and Randolph coming off the bench. Also, if Randolph can add another 20+ lbs, he can play the C position as well. He’s almost 6’11″ has unreal length and will be an EXCELLENT shot blocker with time.

    Don’t get me wrong, guys, I would go for this trade either way around it. However, Randolph would certainly give this trade a much greater upside.

  • td4life

    Hobson13,
    I would love Randolf, in part because I am sceptical regarding the long-term value of D Blair. But I think Turiaf is the thicker body and of more use to us in the TD-era. It’s moot however, because the Warriors GM has stated that he will not trade Randolf this summer, unless there is a major player being gained in return. He told Randolf this directly this week. And this came in response to a rumoured Kevin Love trade, which is more than we could offer.

  • Jim Henderson

    Hobson13
    June 20th, 2010 at 8:05 pm

    “Don’t get me wrong, guys, I would go for this trade either way around it. However, Randolph would certainly give this trade a much greater upside.”

    Well, don’t get me wrong either, I’d be glad to take Randolph. He’s the more talented player, with still significant upside. If he could put on 20-25 pounds, improve his strength in the next 2 years, develop a low post game, and learn to defend better in the paint, I’d be thrilled to see him and Blair play side by side in the future. Randolph could rotate in for Splitter at center, and fill in for Blair when he’s resting. In the meantime though, TD would need to play more minutes at the center position than he’s used to, sharing that role with Splitter. The bottom line is, we would need to play TD less to be able to properly develop & play all three young guys. We’d have to keep TD’s minutes closer to 25, and give him some more rest days. We need to be serious about developing our young front court players, and that requires significant minutes.

    As far as Turiaf & the Warriors: Turiaf is actually a PF as well, though he’s the best PF on their current roster to back-up Biedrins. But let’s face it, the Warriors, for whatever wacky reason, have never been too concerned about having centers, or even big, dominant PF’s for that matter. They love “small ball”, which is practically a “Nellie” trademark. And they have plenty of them: Radmonovic, Wright, and Tolliver, plus all the athletic guards & SF’s that they have. Now, if they suddenly want to begin to turn over another leaf, they can begin by drafting a PF/C with the 6th and/or 34th picks. They’d have a good shot at Monroe, Cousins, Davis, or Udoh at number 6 (to replace Randolph), and Brackins, Varnado, or Zoubek at number 34 (to replace Turiaf). Of course, they also need to draft their SF of the future, which could be Aminu, or maybe Johnson at number 6. So, hypothetically, in my view, it probably makes more sense for them to spend their number one pick on a SF, and their 4th pick of the second round on a guy to replace Turiaf as a back up to Biedrins. There’s a number of 2nd round picks that could do the trick. Plus, they could also resign their d-league guy that played with them this past spring, the 6’11″ Chris Hunter. To me, that would make more sense for them than to give up Randolph and be left with the hope that drafting those listed above at #6 will eventually pan out. It’s generally easier to replace a guy in a back-up role with less known NBA value (Turiaf), and no upside, than someone projected as an eventual full-time starter with more known NBA value (Randolph), with a bright future.

  • Jim Henderson

    That’s right, the Warriors would also have the #20 pick (from us) to find a replacement for Turiaf, and a back-up to Biedrins. Perhaps Whiteside?

  • Jim Henderson

    td4life
    June 20th, 2010 at 9:15 pm

    “I would love Randolf, in part because I am sceptical regarding the long-term value of D Blair.”

    Blair should be amazing over the long-term. How many NBA players do you know that had TWO twenty/twenty games in their rookie season at age 20. None, it’s never happened before. He’ll do great. He just needs to work hard at his game (to overcome the height issues as best he can), get some playing time, and get a TALL defender next to him on the front line. Hopefully Splitter fits the bill.

    “…..the Warriors GM has stated that he will not trade Randolf this summer, unless there is a major player being gained in return. He told Randolf this directly this week. And this came in response to a rumoured Kevin Love trade, which is more than we could offer.”

    I’m not surprised. I just don’t think it’s as realistic to get Randolph in this deal, and Turiaf is still fairly young, but much more experienced, and is the bigger body, something we definitely need.

  • Jim Henderson

    Trade Tp
    June 20th, 2010 at 4:12 pm

    “Turiaf really isnt a better fit for SA compared to Randolph. Hes a worse rebounder scorer and FT shooter than Blair or Randolph.

    WE NEED ATHLETIC PLAYERS inside to fit this “system.”

    Now, this looks pretty athletic to me:

    Pretty sweet block in transition on Kobe, don’t you think?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3V0jTHOlRA

    Also, Turiaf has a better career average in FT% than Blair, has more career shot blocks per game per 36 minutes than either Randolph or Blair, and is also a better defender in the paint than either of them. And that’s what we need: size, defense in the paint, & shot-blocking. We don’t need scoring or rebounding as much because that’s what Duncan, Blair, & McDyess do pretty well as a team, and Turiaf is adequate in these areas as well for the 15 minute per night role we need him for.

  • td4life

    some stats for anyone who’s interested:

    Player MPG…EFF48M…PER…AFG%…(misc)

    Turiaf 2o.8…22.79…12.7…0.582…(1.29blkpg)
    Duncan 31.3…35.97…24.8…0.519…(1.5blkpg)
    Blair 18.2…29.3…17.8…0.556
    Maggette 29.7…29.96…20.4…0.523…(7.9FTA on .835FT%)
    Azubuike 25.7…27.84…19.8…(.520AFG% career)
    Jefferson 31.2…19.03…13.2…0.505
    Parker 30.9…22.42…16.5…0.494
    Ginobili 28.7…29.32…22.5…0.514
    Hill 29.2…20.03…14.7…0.529
    Splitter…???

    Tony, of course, played through injury much of last season.

    Azubuike’s numbers last season were a small statistical sample due to injury, so I subbed his career AFG% for his abnormally high shortened season number; his 3pt% & FT% were down significantly in his short season last year, while his FG% was way up.

    Kelenna’s injury worry you?… here’s Reggie Williams:
    32.6MPG…23.83EFF48M…16.oPER…0.553AFG%

    As per the reasoning against the probability of picking up Randolf and of affording Morrow, I left them off.