The Good, Bad, and Weird of Spurs-Clippers
The Spurs haven’t been quite right. We can say that with confidence, which makes it all the more impressive they have a chance to knock the Clippers out of the playoffs this evening. Some things have worked and some things have gone awry, and it’s made for a totally unpredictable series thus far.
San Antonio’s starting lineup
Normally the Spurs’ road-grader, the five-man unit of Tony Parker, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan, and Tiago Splitter has been a weak point, getting outscored by 2.8 points per 100 possessions. There are mitigating circumstances here, to be fair: Parker and Splitter are clearly banged up, and they’re going against one of the best starting groups in the league in Los Angeles. Regardless, they’ve been very inconsistent thus far in the series, wildly swinging from one pole to the opposite.
Just look at the game-to-game breakdown for that starting group in terms of net rating.
Game 1: -43
Game 2: 50.8
Game 3: 61.5
Game 4: -21.3
Game 5: -57
It really is dizzying. Those are extreme numbers on both sides of the line. It’s part of the reason this series has felt like such a random crap-shoot. Anyone care to predict what will happen tonight? Here, I’ll put two pieces of paper on the wall with the words ‘good things’ on one and ‘bad things’ on the other. Then, I’m going to put this dart in your hand and a blindfold over your eyes, and finally, I’m going to spin you around a few times and point you in the general direction. Now go ahead and throw.
Boris the Magnificient
We’ve covered the tribulations of San Antonio’s bench players all season. It just hasn’t been great, in general. Things came around late in the year, and a few guys sure as hell have picked it up in the postseason. One of those people is the pirouetting, shoulder-shrugging, chill-bro-ing Boris Diaw.
His 3-point shot has all but left him — though he’ll hit some big ones from time to time — but his versatility continues to be such an important asset. Diaw is one of the few front-court players in the league who can initiate offense from a scoring and passing perspective, from the post or off the dribble, and can defend multiple positions. That’s had a ton of value in this series.
The Spurs’ net rating has skyrocketed from minus-2.8 to plus-32.8 in the 32 minutes Diaw has spent on the court in place of Splitter, alongside the other four starters. It makes you wonder: Has Pop explored the idea of starting Diaw? He’s done so in the past against certain matchups, but do you even consider it at this point of a series?
Waiting for a ‘Manu Game’
This series felt like one in which Manu Ginobili could play a major role. The Clippers’ bench is awful, and beyond Chris Paul and Matt Barnes (who will be busy guarding other guys anyway), there isn’t a defender you’d feel would pose a major challenge for Manu.
Yet here we are, five games in and Ginobili has struggled throughout. He’s hit a few important shots, as have other players who are struggling — it’s been that kind of an up-and-down series. But in general, the numbers aren’t good. He’s shooting 37.5 percent from the field, including 33 percent from deep, and his turnover ration is a really hefty 15.83 per 100 possessions. For perspective, that number is up from 13.68 this season, and 12.17 the year prior.
And Pop has felt Manu’s pain, too. He’s playing him fewer than 20 minutes per game, down about three minutes on average from the regular season. Normally, Ginobili’s minutes increase during the postseason. But while he has been down, we typically get a big performance from him once every handful of games, and when he plays well, the Spurs almost always do as well. A Game 6 at home to close out the series seems like a good spot for it.
Bouncing back slowly but surely
It’s been a brutal year for Tony Parker. There’s no other way to describe it, really. Every time he’s looked healthy, he’s been hit with another injury. The playoffs have been no different. One of the lasting images for me from Game 1 is the Spurs’ point guard laying on the ground, looking like he’s planking, after getting kneed in the thigh by Paul while fighting around a screen.
Add that to the sprained ankle he suffered not long before that, and you’ve got a couple of new bumps and bruises for Parker, just to kick the postseason off right. But over the last two games, he’s looked better. The shot still isn’t there, but he’s appeared quicker and more decisive. Those quick moves into the paint have been there, as has his floater and that final burst to the rim to separate on layups.
Parker is 6-of-9 from inside the restricted area and 5-of-8 from the paint (non-RA) over the last two games. It’s a really good sign when he’s converting in there. It means he has some explosiveness.
But man, that shot is off. And as long as he’s clanging it off the rim, Doc Rivers is going to have his players going under screens and sagging in the paint. All it takes is one game to get back on track, though, and tonight would be a good time for that.
Home-court advantage or nah?
The Spurs have been much better at home this season than away. Significantly so, in fact. That’s not typical of this team, considering last season they were the league’s best on the road.
San Antonio wasted a home-court opportunity on Sunday before winning its second game in Los Angeles in the series, and now the champs have a chance to close things out in the AT&T Center. The problem here is, unlike the Spurs, the Clippers are really good on the road — on the offensive end, at least.
Los Angeles puts up more than 111 points per 100 possessions away from Staples Center, an explosiveness we saw first-hand in Game 4. Their defense drops off significantly — they give up 105.7 points per 100 possessions — but we’ve seen the Spurs miss a lot of open 3-pointers in this series, so they won’t be able to fall back on that, necessarily. If they have another off night, that Clippers offense can present some major issues.
Normally, this situation would favor San Antonio rather easily. But L.A. is going to bring a dog-fight with it. Home-court advantage isn’t as significant against teams who seem to feel this comfortable in the opposition’s building.
I believe the Spurs will win tonight, but I think the posted line of -6 is probably a little too much. San Antonio has the ability to open things up if it plays up to its capability, but we have yet to see that this series, and I doubt the walking wounded are suddenly going to recover significantly from their various maladies.
Those ailments might be incentive enough to advance tonight. The second round starts on Monday, regardless of who wins this series. An extra couple of days off for this team would be very welcomed.
Game 6 tonight is the biggest heavyweight fight of the NBA Playoffs thus far. Can’t wait.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com.
