Wednesday, January 28th, 2009...5:15 pm
The Manu Conundrum
All season long Spurs fans have been dealing with the anxiety-inducing idea that Manu Ginobili may no longer be, well, Manu Ginobili. That some nefarious combination of injury and age has left him in a place where we will never see the same intense and productive play night-in-night-out. These concerns have continually floated to the surface in comment threads here at 48 Minutes of Hell but we have yet to directly address the issue.
So first and foremost, has Manu lost a step? Well, yes and no. In some ways he may never be as recklessly physical as he once was. His deceptive explosiveness will never be at 2005 levels. Even last year, his craftiness increasingly supplanted what his underappreciated athleticism had previously provided.
But, I don’t believe Manu is yet at 100%. My primary reason for this is the limited minutes he is still seeing, even at this stage in the season. While Duncan, Mason, Bonner, and Parker are consistently seeing 30+ minute nights, Manu remains squarely in the 20-25 minute range (upper 20s when the game is really tight). His being a sixth man has never stopped him from having starter minutes; we all know he isn’t just any old bench player. So if someone looks at how Manu has played so far this season and earnestly says “he’s lost a step,” in some sense they are wrong. Manu will be playing at a higher level come April and May.
Still, if Manu is truly past his prime, is it time to consider involving him a blockbuster trade (although not an illegitimate question, the mere mention of the idea seems almost heretical)? He is the most moveable member of the big three and could be the key to adding a currently unidentified building block for a new generation of title-contending teams.
But, at the same time, He is Manu Ginobili. He gives a warrior’s effort ever single night. he can still explode for 10 points in the 4th quarter to help us take down the Jazz in Utah. He is one of the most successfull basketball players in the world, having led teams at every level (European, NBA, Olympic) to a championship. And, in the grand tradition of David Robinson, we treat our athletes just a little bit more like friends than assets. That respect inspires selfless play from our veterans and instills in our younger players the values that will hopefully one day help us bring even more championships to the banks of the San Antonio River.
Until a concrete situation arises (verified trade negotiations, contract extention talks), I am going to hold off on having a firm editorial standpoint regarding the future of Manu’s relationship with the San Antonio Spurs. That being said, as we slowly crawl towards the day when the front office is faced with this difficult decision, the level of my discomfort regarding the whole matter grows.
25 Comments
January 28th, 2009 at 6:17 pm
Until 08, Manu was THE difference. Even a struggling Manu is fun to watch. It’s difficult to see teams returning value in a trade. Manu for Jermaine O’Neal? My grandma would kill me for mentioning a Manu trade.
January 28th, 2009 at 6:25 pm
Great stuff, Graydon. The thought of a trade has crossed my mind as well, but it’s hard to hink about trading Manu because he does so much and finds a way to contribute even when he’s not scoring. His passion and intensity are also much needed on this team and I don’t know if you get that from a player in a trade. Regardless, I’d like to see who you think the Spurs could realistically get by trading him.
January 28th, 2009 at 7:00 pm
The day Manu is traded is the day I begin boycotting the Spurs. He is the heart of this team.
January 28th, 2009 at 7:16 pm
I, along with my ptr brethern (and sistern) wholeheartedly reject the idea of even considering a manu trade. There is no one in this league who could adequately replace what Manu means to the Spurs outside of the top 5 or 10 players in the NBA.
Manu’s style, his humility, his competitiveness, and his perfect fit into the Spurs system make him essential. Trading him is basically admitting that we will no longer win championships in the Tim Duncan era, and I don’t believe we’re done.
January 28th, 2009 at 7:30 pm
I mentioned yesterday the possibility of trading Manu (of course, it hurt my heart to even consider it). Now, after watching last night’s game in Utah, it was even more clear to me how indispensable he is. I really don’t think any player in the league can do some of the things he does. Those were truly an impressive 8-9 boards. What heart! While practically it might make some basketball sense, I think in the long run, we gotta role with his amazing heart and not just his not-quite-there-yet legs.
January 28th, 2009 at 8:25 pm
Do you think Manu, like Duncan did in the past, would agree to take a pay cut to stay on the team and give the Spurs more room to bring in another player?
January 28th, 2009 at 11:20 pm
Of course he would..
Manu has the heart of a champion and even flirting with the idea of trading him is blasphemy.
Trade Parker before Manu.
January 29th, 2009 at 12:50 am
Watching Manu last night, I wondered if Hollinger will every come up with a formula to access his type of contributions? He dominated the last quarter, getting to every loose ball, slapping a ball away on a for-sure layup, hustling to block out so others can board, showing on picks to force a play in a different direction, shaking a defender long enough to get to the inbound pass- and thus to the free throw line. The list goes on and on.
None of these mentioned items are reflected in any stats I know of, but all of them help to provide the Spurs a win. I’m sure Pop understands. I’m not sure Hollinger does.
January 29th, 2009 at 3:01 am
It’s unlikely that Ginobili would be traded anyway for the following reasons: a) production and value not in line with $9m salary right now, b) family culture in the franchise, c) past achievements, d) future potential hoping he gets back to 100% and e) fanbase.
Reason a) is not a diss but his trade value was definitely higher a few years ago, there’s little reason to trade him now since there’s little chance the Spurs would get a comparable player in return.
January 29th, 2009 at 5:14 am
I’m in fundamental agreement with everyone else about the blasphemous nature of suggesting trading Manu … but it has to be mentioned. The point of Graydion’s article was that it seemed the same to him, but that it has to be mentioned. He couldn’t imagine the potential blockbuster trade, but what if we had the chance? Would we trade for an All-Star wing/shooting guard? Apart from salaries, would we trade Manu straight-up for:
-Joe Johnson?
-Moe Williams?
-Kevin Durant?
-Vince Carter?
-Rashard Lewis?
-Dwyane Wade?
-Brandon Roy?
-Al Jefferson?
-O.J. Mayo?
-Danny Granger?
-Kevin Martin?
-David West?
I realize most of those guys are untouchable, and supremely unlikely in any kind of trade for Manu (as he is right now), but those are the KIND of guys Graydion is talking about. (At least, I think so.) We’ve got to get imaginative to keep the Duncan era championship-contending for its last few years.
Also, I say keep Parker no matter what. Younger, sturdier, improving, indispensable.
January 29th, 2009 at 6:19 am
Manu is the excitement factor for the Spurs. It seems that it takes players about a year to recover from a very difficult injury and I think Manu will be a significant contributer this year, a superstar again next year.
January 29th, 2009 at 6:50 am
Let’s not forget the chemistry the Big 3 have. I think Mike Monroe had an article the other day that talked about how none of them have a big ego and that they all get along. I don’t know if you get that same chemistry if you trade Ginobli. Actually I do know, there is no way you get that same chemistry. I am one who believes that Manu will rediscover his mojo again.
January 29th, 2009 at 8:47 am
I’ll let Graydon give the expert analysis, but I think the good list of names Brad E. suggested for Manu fall into three categories: (1) If this trade occurs, it would be a complete disaster for the Spurs (2) It’s a near toss-up, but the Spurs should not do it, and (3) Wow, but the other teams would laugh at the Spurs for suggesting it.
Johnson (1), Williams (1), Durant(3), Carter(1), Lewis (2), Wade(3), Roy(3), Jefferson(3), Mayo(3), Granger(3), KMartin(1), West(2).
January 29th, 2009 at 8:50 am
i can’t see manu wearing another jersey besides a spurs one…
there are rumors swirling around that salmons might end up in portland for lafraentz…so with that being said, i wouldn’t mind a manu for b.roy trade..lol
on a sidenote:what are the chances of the spurs moving pieces to get troy murphy (solid rebounder/3pt range/ decent defender/hungry to get into the playoffs)?
January 29th, 2009 at 9:08 am
Hey everybody,
First and foremost, yes, the entire idea of trading Manu does make me feel sick. I just felt that I should bring it up because it does get mentioned and I hadn’t addressed it.
Anyways, part of the reason I held off from being specific regarding trade possibilities is because of exactly what Brad E. has touched upon: There are so many (and yes, those are the kind of guys I am talking about). I also don’t envision it being a straight up trade, only because the entire point would be to bring in a younger, all-star caliber player to extend the Duncan era championship window and that may mean we would have to include something else to sweeten the deal (an expiring contract, draft picks, etc…).
I will note that Ginobili only makes around 10 million a year, so I am not positive he will want to re-sign for much less. He is worth that much. Even though both Tim and Tony have restructured their contracts to help bring in extra talent, they still get paid an appropriate amount (around 21 million and 12 million, respectively).
Also, I agree with ChillFAN’s assessment of each of the players Brad suggested, with only a couple of changes: I like Joe Johnson and am confident he would be a good addition to the squad. I have no interest in Rashard Lewis or David West. I pretty much agree with your reaction to everyone else. But, again, this is all so speculative that I don’t have much more to say than that.
January 29th, 2009 at 10:29 am
Found your site via TrueHoop - keep up the good work. As an outsider (I’m a Nets fan - we really should have beaten SA in 2003), I obviously don’t get to watch the Spurs day in, day out, so take my comment for what it’s worth. However, it seems to me that some of this is not quite right. You write that Manu is not healthy because he isn’t playing big minutes, like “30+ minute nights” that Duncan, Mason, Bonner, and Parker are “consistently seeing”. But, other than last year, Manu has never been a heavy minute guy. In fact, last year is the only year of his career that he averaged over 30 minutes per game. The two years prior to that, he averaged less than 28 minutes per game. So his current 26.5 minutes per game is pretty consistent with what he played in 2005-06 and 2006-07.
As for his play, it seems to me that he is just coming down from his extraordinary play last year and in 2006-07 to the merely very, very good play he had in 2004-05 and 2005-06. If you look at Hollinger’s PER ratings for him, he was above 24 last year and the year before, which is incredible. The two years prior to that, he was at 22.3 and 22.4. This year, so far, he’s at 21.6, or pretty close to what he was in 2004-05 and 2005-06.
So, my take is that his minutes and effectiveness this year are pretty much the same as 2005-06. That may be a decrease from last year’s, but consider perhaps that last year may have been the fluke, and this is his normal level of play. Guys do have career years from time to time, after all.
January 29th, 2009 at 10:31 am
It’s not only that SA would never get equal talent back but also everything that goes along trading Manu the player, figure and person. On the court he is way more than what the stats say. Even now that he is fourth in PER among SG on an off year (remember he lead all SG in PER last year. Including MVP Kobe). As a figure, you would never get what he gives to your franchise, including a huge number of european and latin american fans. Finally, you could hardly find a player of his caliber with such little ego on and off the court and, perhaps more importantly, you will never get the same chemistry if you deal any relatively important player of past championships. Let alone one of the Big Three.
The only way I could see the Spurs without Manu would be if they do not resign him because the have SECURED signing a younger, (right now) equally talented player for less money on the 2010 FA show.
January 29th, 2009 at 10:41 am
If Lakers can get Gasol for KWAME Brown, I’m pretty hopeful the Spurs can bring in a big man. Players I wouldn’t mind seeing are Drew Gooden, Camby, Rasheed Wallace, Dalembert. Only players I would leave untouchable are the big 3 and Roger Mason.
January 29th, 2009 at 10:43 am
Juan,
“The only way I could see the Spurs without Manu would be if they do not resign him because they have SECURED signing a younger, (right now) equally talented player for less money on the 2010 FA Show.”
Aside from the less money part (the Spurs will have a decent amount of cap space to work with) I think that is fundamentally right.
A.S.,
Those are all good points but I guess my sense that he is not at 100% has to do with more than just his court time. It also has to do with the amount of penetration he is able to get. I think he is clearly taking more step-back jumpers than he would like because he can’t get that initial explosion. His play last season also never struck me as the type of fluke “career year” play you are referring to. I could be wrong but I never got that sense.
January 29th, 2009 at 12:06 pm
I’m surprised there hasn’t been more talk about the Spurs moving Manu. I believe the team’s reluctance in moving him has more to do with his appeal with the fans than anything he does on the court. Don’t misunderstand me, Manu is a great player. But he’s a Jack-of-all-trades-master-of-none kind of player. And while he is incredibly important, he’s not necessarily replaceable. I guess it depends on how the Spurs want to move forward. Do they want to compete with LA and Boston now? Or are they content with being 2nd tier for the next few seasons, then trying to reload in 2010? If the latter is true, then hold onto Manu. But if its the former, then they should seriously consider moving him. For all that Manu gives them, if moving him could somehow net them another productive big, wouldn’t they have to consider it?
January 29th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
Mason,
…and Hill. Camby would be a dream come true because of his defense and little need for the ball on offense. Any athletic defensive minded center would be great.
I know he is not doing great in NJ but would anyone be in favor of trading for Eduardo Najera? I always like him for the Spurs. He is not athletic but he makes up for it with toughness and smarts. He is a good defender, adequate rebounder and can shoot the 3 now. It would hardly cost a benchwarmer.
January 29th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
Are Manu’s minutes actually down? He did average 31 mpg last season, but prior to that, in his watershed years of 05-06 and 06-07, he only saw 27 mpg. He’s at 26.5 this season, so I don’t see that as a huge dropoff.
It’s his decision making that seems suspect to me. He’s not deciding to drive or shoot with the same confidence and authority of past years. He’s like the player at the Y who still tries to do the exact same moves he did 10 years ago, with mixed results. It’s almost like he needs to reframe his thinking from “driver, finisher, with a good jump shot” to “jump shooter who can drive and finish if needed”.
January 29th, 2009 at 12:53 pm
I don’t think the Spurs should consider trading Manu. Although I don’t think we’ll never see the Manu of 2005 again. There is no way the Spurs can get back anything close to equal value. Any one on Brad E’s list that I would consider fits in category 3. He showed Tuesday against the Jazz that he can play horrible for 3 quarters and when it counts be one of the most important players on the court. It’s the game like the one against the Lakers that worries me. His inconsistency drives me crazy. It seems this year he takes more fade away or step back jumpers than in recent years and that is not his game.
January 29th, 2009 at 3:10 pm
You guys just don’t get it…
Why did the Spurs lose to L.A. in playoffs last year??
B/c Ginobili wasn’t a 100%.. probably 50% at best..
Nobody seems to remember over the last 6 seasons who’s hands the balls was in for the last shot of a big game… Ginobili!
Pop admitted it himself, without Manu we wouldn’t have as many championships..
The only guy on the list I would trade for would be D-Wade because he’s one of the few players with the competitive spirit of Manu (Kobe being the other)..
Unless Wade is on the table the answer is NO!
January 30th, 2009 at 3:42 am
Stephen Jax helped the Spurs win a championship yet they let him go, the Spurs were willing to sign and trade Parker for Kidd -this front office isn’t sentimental, this front office will do what it needs to win.
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