The Manu Ginobili free agent conversation, so far
Back on March 11, I suggested that Manu Ginobili’s recent strong play would have the effect of complicating his upcoming contract negotiations with the San Antonio Spurs. Quoting myself:
This [Manu Ginobili's return to form] complicates Ginobili’s impending free-agent status, and so does another salient fact entirely beyond his control: only one team can sign LeBron James.
Put differently, several teams enjoy the luxury of significant cap space this summer, but the Spurs are not one of them. San Antonio is financially strapped and could be forced into a hard decision if a ready-to-spend team turns to Ginobili as a free-agent consolation prize. That, and the possibility that someone will include the promise to bid for Ginobili as part of their sales pitch to a max-level free agent.
The unique intangibles derived from winning the Euroleague, an Olympic gold medal and multiple NBA titles is a nice fallback for teams that fail (or simply can’t afford) to acquire two max-level free agents. Some clever GM could parlay Ginobili’s resurgence into a relatively inexpensive but nevertheless compelling selling point in pursuit of the market’s biggest prize.
The question before the Spurs is not simply the judgment of how much, and for how long. There is a prior question. Who will the Spurs be bidding against in their attempt to re-sign Ginobili?
Earlier this week, Peter Vecsey wrote a love song to Manu Ginobili that attempted to play matchmaker between Ginobili and the Knicks.
While the Knicks’ silo of salary cap room has fans hypnotized into believing the summer signing LeBron James and/or Dwyane Wade isn’t hallucinatory, I fantasize of soon seeing Manu Ginobili trippin’ the night fantastic for the home team at the Garden.
My take, of course, is slightly different than Vecsey’s: Ginobili could be the cute carrot Donnie Walsh dangles in front of LeBron James to make him think twice about shunning the Knicks.
This morning Jeff McDonald chimed-in with word that San Antonio wants Ginobili back, and, Ginobili, for his part, sort of, kind of wants to return to the Spurs.
“I’m not going to be unemployed,†Ginobili said. “I don’t hold any hard feelings for anybody. It’s a business, so you’ve go to do what you think is best for the franchise, and for you.â€
Manu Ginobili’s will likely add postseason gate revenue to the San Antonio Spurs’ bottom line in the coming weeks, but with each dominant performance he’s also adding tax dollars to the Spurs 2010-11 cap. Â But, of course, if the Spurs lose Ginobili’s draw at the gate next season, it’s money lost the other direction. That’s not good either. Peter Holt is in a hard spot.
And now John Krolik has joined the conversation. His take is from the gut, but it bears resemblance to Kevin Pelton’s recent statistical analysis of the 2010 free agent class. Pelton argues that after LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, Manu Ginobili is the next best player of the 2010 free agent class.  If not for age, I would actually rank Ginobili alongside Chris Bosh, rather than just behind. Pelton:
There are several surprising numbers here, probably none more unexpected than the top player in this group, Manu Ginobili. Outside of the top three players, Ginobili is the only other free agent projected to be worth double-digit WARP next season despite turning 33.
It’s a terrible cliché, but it seems entirely apt here: Rumors of Ginobili’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. In part, he probably is hurt by a comparison to his own younger self. Ginobili is no longer at that level, but he had plenty of room to take a step back and remain a valuable contributor. Let’s compare him to Johnson, for example.
Player Win% WARP TS% Usg Reb% Ast% SB% --------------------------------------------------------- Ginobili .647 6.3 .555 .243 7.6 7.8 3.7 Johnson .544 5.4 .542 .267 7.3 5.6 1.6Johnson is known as one of the league’s most versatile guards, yet Ginobili has him beat across the board except in terms of the ability to create his own shot. Does that explain why Ginobili is at the top of the group and Johnson the bottom, especially when the latter is four years younger? Not entirely, but in terms of players who could make an immediate impact by changing teams next year, Ginobili belongs in the discussion.
Krolik says the same thing, with his usual intelligence:
Last weekend, Manu Ginobili put up a combined 75 points in wins against two of the best three teams in basketball. A week earlier, Ginobili scored a combined 58 points in wins against Cleveland and Boston. Manu’s missed one game in the past couple of months. That was the game the Spurs lost to the Nets. He’s got the 2nd-best PER among shooting guards this season, and the 9th-best PER of any player in the league. And it’s not like this is a fluke year for him — Manu’s had a PER mark of 22 or higher in his last six seasons. On top of all that, if you believe in the “proven winner” thing, Manu Ginobili is definitely a proven winner.
Here’s the kicker. Manu Ginobili is a free agent in 2010, and there doesn’t seem to be anywhere near as much speculation surrounding him as there should be…Manu Ginobili is going to quietly make the team that signs him very happy while the rest of the league goes for broke chasing marquee names
Krolik is spot-on. Â I suspect the league’s best GMs would read his assessment and ‘amen’ and ‘uh-huh’ themselves into a huffy pant. And, somewhat strangely, I suspect that many casual fans would shake their heads and demur. “Don’t you know how old Manu Ginobili is? And that Rudy Gay is pregnant with potential?”
But despite such protests, there really isn’t an honest metric that would teach us to value Rudy Gay or Joe Johnson more than Manu Ginobili.
When folks knock the free agent value of Manu Ginobili–and trust me, they do–they’re floating their discontent beneath the balloon of perceived entertainment value. Rudy Gay is better because he’s more fun to watch.
And that’s the part I really don’t get.
Set aside the fact the Manu Ginobili is a much better player than all but a few of his free agent class peers. Forget that for a moment. Â If you’re just paying money to watch an exciting basketball player, and not one who helps your team win, would you rather watch Manu Ginobili or Rudy Gay? Manu Ginobili or Joe Johnson? Â If I’m a GM whose interest primarily, perhaps exclusively, lies in improving my team’s draw at the gate, it’s hard to pass on Ginobili, unless, of course, you’re doing so in favor of James, Wade, or, perhaps, Stoudemire. But I would never pass over Ginobili for Joe Johnson or Rudy Gay. No disrespect, but they’re not in the same class of talent.
In other words, Manu Ginobili will not only improve your basketball team, he’ll make it–in a completely independent evaluation from wins added–much more entertaining. The man is a nightly highlight reel.
Taken together, I’m with Krolik. Tell me again why Manu Ginobili isn’t a marquee free agent target?
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