Monday, April 5th, 2010...4:51 pm
The Manu Ginobili free agent conversation, so far
Back on March 11, I suggested that Manu Ginobili’s recent strong play would have the effect of complicating his upcoming contract negotiations with the San Antonio Spurs. Quoting myself:
This [Manu Ginobili's return to form] complicates Ginobili’s impending free-agent status, and so does another salient fact entirely beyond his control: only one team can sign LeBron James.
Put differently, several teams enjoy the luxury of significant cap space this summer, but the Spurs are not one of them. San Antonio is financially strapped and could be forced into a hard decision if a ready-to-spend team turns to Ginobili as a free-agent consolation prize. That, and the possibility that someone will include the promise to bid for Ginobili as part of their sales pitch to a max-level free agent.
The unique intangibles derived from winning the Euroleague, an Olympic gold medal and multiple NBA titles is a nice fallback for teams that fail (or simply can’t afford) to acquire two max-level free agents. Some clever GM could parlay Ginobili’s resurgence into a relatively inexpensive but nevertheless compelling selling point in pursuit of the market’s biggest prize.
The question before the Spurs is not simply the judgment of how much, and for how long. There is a prior question. Who will the Spurs be bidding against in their attempt to re-sign Ginobili?
Earlier this week, Peter Vecsey wrote a love song to Manu Ginobili that attempted to play matchmaker between Ginobili and the Knicks.
While the Knicks’ silo of salary cap room has fans hypnotized into believing the summer signing LeBron James and/or Dwyane Wade isn’t hallucinatory, I fantasize of soon seeing Manu Ginobili trippin’ the night fantastic for the home team at the Garden.
My take, of course, is slightly different than Vecsey’s: Ginobili could be the cute carrot Donnie Walsh dangles in front of LeBron James to make him think twice about shunning the Knicks.
This morning Jeff McDonald chimed-in with word that San Antonio wants Ginobili back, and, Ginobili, for his part, sort of, kind of wants to return to the Spurs.
“I’m not going to be unemployed,” Ginobili said. “I don’t hold any hard feelings for anybody. It’s a business, so you’ve go to do what you think is best for the franchise, and for you.”
Manu Ginobili’s will likely add postseason gate revenue to the San Antonio Spurs’ bottom line in the coming weeks, but with each dominant performance he’s also adding tax dollars to the Spurs 2010-11 cap. But, of course, if the Spurs lose Ginobili’s draw at the gate next season, it’s money lost the other direction. That’s not good either. Peter Holt is in a hard spot.
And now John Krolik has joined the conversation. His take is from the gut, but it bears resemblance to Kevin Pelton’s recent statistical analysis of the 2010 free agent class. Pelton argues that after LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, Manu Ginobili is the next best player of the 2010 free agent class. If not for age, I would actually rank Ginobili alongside Chris Bosh, rather than just behind. Pelton:
There are several surprising numbers here, probably none more unexpected than the top player in this group, Manu Ginobili. Outside of the top three players, Ginobili is the only other free agent projected to be worth double-digit WARP next season despite turning 33.
It’s a terrible cliché, but it seems entirely apt here: Rumors of Ginobili’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. In part, he probably is hurt by a comparison to his own younger self. Ginobili is no longer at that level, but he had plenty of room to take a step back and remain a valuable contributor. Let’s compare him to Johnson, for example.
Player Win% WARP TS% Usg Reb% Ast% SB% --------------------------------------------------------- Ginobili .647 6.3 .555 .243 7.6 7.8 3.7 Johnson .544 5.4 .542 .267 7.3 5.6 1.6Johnson is known as one of the league’s most versatile guards, yet Ginobili has him beat across the board except in terms of the ability to create his own shot. Does that explain why Ginobili is at the top of the group and Johnson the bottom, especially when the latter is four years younger? Not entirely, but in terms of players who could make an immediate impact by changing teams next year, Ginobili belongs in the discussion.
Krolik says the same thing, with his usual intelligence:
Last weekend, Manu Ginobili put up a combined 75 points in wins against two of the best three teams in basketball. A week earlier, Ginobili scored a combined 58 points in wins against Cleveland and Boston. Manu’s missed one game in the past couple of months. That was the game the Spurs lost to the Nets. He’s got the 2nd-best PER among shooting guards this season, and the 9th-best PER of any player in the league. And it’s not like this is a fluke year for him — Manu’s had a PER mark of 22 or higher in his last six seasons. On top of all that, if you believe in the “proven winner” thing, Manu Ginobili is definitely a proven winner.
Here’s the kicker. Manu Ginobili is a free agent in 2010, and there doesn’t seem to be anywhere near as much speculation surrounding him as there should be…Manu Ginobili is going to quietly make the team that signs him very happy while the rest of the league goes for broke chasing marquee names
Krolik is spot-on. I suspect the league’s best GMs would read his assessment and ‘amen’ and ‘uh-huh’ themselves into a huffy pant. And, somewhat strangely, I suspect that many casual fans would shake their heads and demur. “Don’t you know how old Manu Ginobili is? And that Rudy Gay is pregnant with potential?”
But despite such protests, there really isn’t an honest metric that would teach us to value Rudy Gay or Joe Johnson more than Manu Ginobili.
When folks knock the free agent value of Manu Ginobili-and trust me, they do-they’re floating their discontent beneath the balloon of perceived entertainment value. Rudy Gay is better because he’s more fun to watch.
And that’s the part I really don’t get.
Set aside the fact the Manu Ginobili is a much better player than all but a few of his free agent class peers. Forget that for a moment. If you’re just paying money to watch an exciting basketball player, and not one who helps your team win, would you rather watch Manu Ginobili or Rudy Gay? Manu Ginobili or Joe Johnson? If I’m a GM whose interest primarily, perhaps exclusively, lies in improving my team’s draw at the gate, it’s hard to pass on Ginobili, unless, of course, you’re doing so in favor of James, Wade, or, perhaps, Stoudemire. But I would never pass over Ginobili for Joe Johnson or Rudy Gay. No disrespect, but they’re not in the same class of talent.
In other words, Manu Ginobili will not only improve your basketball team, he’ll make it-in a completely independent evaluation from wins added-much more entertaining. The man is a nightly highlight reel.
Taken together, I’m with Krolik. Tell me again why Manu Ginobili isn’t a marquee free agent target?
68 Comments
April 5th, 2010 at 5:04 pm
Extend Manu now!
April 5th, 2010 at 5:05 pm
Would you really pay to see Joe Johnson or Rudy Gay play?? I wouldn’t.
Would I pay to see Manu play? Yes!!
You also cannot underestimate the Latino nation that Manu would attract. Especially in places like New York.
Johnson and Gay are good players, but like the article says, Manu is in another class.
Manu would make Johnson and Gay better.
I wouldn’t be surprised if The Spurs didn’t resign Manu. It is a business and Manu ain’t a rookie.
Having said that, it is a business and MANU can still be a cash cow for the next few seasons. So why wouldn’t they resign him?
April 5th, 2010 at 5:08 pm
My biggest fear is that THE LAKE show is gonna come in a steal him away. I know the Latino Community would be happy.
April 5th, 2010 at 5:50 pm
The only way to drop Manu’s FA values, will be if he insists on playing for the national team this offseason. I wouldn’t be terribly sad to see him go if he plays for the NP and comes back out of shape and banged-up. I’m also against signing him up with a over-the-top contract (say, something like what Hedo got this season: long-term and overpaid). Then again, he’s Manu freakin’ Ginobili and seeing him in other than silver-and-black would be a heart breaking thing, I must add.
@junierizzle - I seriously doubt Lakers can afford Manu, other than offering him a full mid-level. The team’s loaded with big contracts already.
April 5th, 2010 at 5:50 pm
Would you please quit trying to convince the world why their teams need Manu Ginobili!? He’s doing a good enough job of that as it is, already.
April 5th, 2010 at 5:53 pm
I mean Nation Team, not NP…
April 5th, 2010 at 5:55 pm
U know what, I am hoping Manu is offered top $$$ this summer. I know that would mean that he will probably not be a Spur, but I really want to see Manu make 13-14 Million + rest of the way. No spurs pay him more than the Jason Kidd deal (3 yr 27 mill).
I am a spurs supporter 1st before a fan of manu and I will have to live with watching manu playing in another uniform. Manu just deserves a lot more money than wht the Spurs ca offer and I wouldnt want him to settle for less. When a Koby can get a 90 million deal, manu should surely get a 50 million deal.
April 5th, 2010 at 5:56 pm
NO WAY* spurs pay him…
April 5th, 2010 at 5:59 pm
I’m a Spurs supporter first, and it’s because I am that I want Manu back!
April 5th, 2010 at 6:04 pm
@IAN
The LAKE show wouldn’t necessarily need to pay a lot to get MANU. He took less money once before.
I only see MANU going to a contender. If it’s only about money then he would go overseas. I see Manu taking less money as long as there is a chance to win.
If not The LAKE SHOW then wherever the KING Show ends up.
April 5th, 2010 at 6:32 pm
Crazy as it sounds, could the Mavs make a play at him? Seems like they need a guard with more size than Terry and Barea, and his shooting and passing would fit alongside any of their guys. Plus, Cuban’s already invested in older guys, so why not go all in?
My bet is he stays in SanAn.
April 5th, 2010 at 6:33 pm
With the rate things are going on right now, I don’t think any NBA team would be able to really afford Manu, unless they offer him a contract that’s similar to that of Kobe. I mean, yes, he’s not in the same calibre as that of Kobe (not to mean disrespect), but Manu’s capable of bringing out the best in his team rather than carrying the entire team on his shoulder. Based on the posts I’ve read here, I see Manu as a passionate player that would yell at the player who’s not giving the game his best shot every minute.
Yes, he might be the potential “cute carrot” that the Knicks can dangle at James or Wade, but I don’t think that they’d be capable of getting this carrot that easily. Yes, there’s a large Latino community in New York (and L.A. too), but I think that he’d rather go to a place where he could get the minutes and the salary.
I think that would be in Europe. Just like how people like Tiago Splitter would most probably stay.
April 5th, 2010 at 6:44 pm
Offer him 2yrs 24-28mil to play out his career with Tim. Take the tax hit, because I’m guessing it would outweigh the money the franchise would lose it they let him walk.
Manu should retire from the NBA as a Spur.
April 5th, 2010 at 6:49 pm
Europe is completely unrealistic for Manu. The guy is all about the competition, he’s already dominated Europe, and the best competition is in the NBA. He’s going to stay in the NBA and my guess is the Spurs will offer to pay him longer than to pay him more. Manu’s wife is giving birth to their first children this summer (twins), so while making money is important, long term financial security would be more of a factor. Instead of offering Manu a giant, front loaded contract (3 years, 10 mil a year) i see the Spurs offering Manu between 5-10 million per for the next 4-5 years. This allows the Spurs to keep cap room, and offers Manu more long term security. I think Manu stays a Spur, although i acknowledge it’s not 100% for certain.
April 5th, 2010 at 7:11 pm
Manu will not play overseas. He has twins on the way. Same with playing in the olympics. Resign Manu. Bring in Scola.
April 5th, 2010 at 7:37 pm
I think one of the biggest problems for the spurs in resigning Ginobili is his insitance on playing for the argentinian national team. I wonder how you approach something like that in the negotiations “ok the deal is if you DONT play for argentina youd get a 5m bonus.” haha.
April 5th, 2010 at 8:03 pm
not to sound overly glib or piss off peta, but two words:
bat swat
bring back ginobili!
April 5th, 2010 at 8:08 pm
Sperm Fans think they can Beat LA in the first round.
Lakers Rule the west with an iron fist.
Spurs are no longer who they were back in the day
You no longer put fear in hearts Sperms fans
We want the Sperms in the first round
We will dominate/Kill/Murder Sperms
then Ginobili will realize, Lakers are the team
it was good while it Lasted Sperms fans you had a good run for too long anyway about time you started sucking
Welcome to mediocrity HA HA
April 5th, 2010 at 8:26 pm
I just threw up after reading that article. I couldn’t bear to watch him play for another team.
April 5th, 2010 at 8:37 pm
I doubt we can resign him unless he doesn’t ask for a lot of money
April 5th, 2010 at 8:54 pm
Way to go….
Keep Manu on the down low already.
If Manu played for the Knicks it would be a horrible kick in the humanities.
April 5th, 2010 at 9:05 pm
I don’t want to see Manu behind another ball-hogging star (pardon me, TP). I think what the past few games have shown is that Manu with the ball in his hands as the primary option/STAR in a team is a Manu that is in the top 3 players in the league. He’s probably always had that before, but was quite inconsistent in his brilliance because he had to defer to TP. Seriously, watch Manu play with TP. He just stands there in the elbow (actually, everyone else is just standing around, too) because the only player TP ever passes the ball to by design is TD, and if he passes it to another player, it’s because he was forced to.
I’m not saying we should trade TP (actually, I think I am), but TP should power our bench and leave the real leader of this team on the starting 5.
April 5th, 2010 at 9:25 pm
Holt should probably just bite the bullet and trade RJ. Obviously the Spurs can’t get market value for his contract, but someone will bite, and if that’s the price you have to pay to keep Manu, you kind of have to do it.
Or Bonner/Mason. Basically Holt has to trade someone.
April 5th, 2010 at 9:43 pm
Is it an insane idea to trade Tony Parker in the off-season? I have no idea what his trade value is (maybe a 2010 first round pick and a later second round pick? [certainly not the CP3 deal that was apparently discussed earlier this season] ), but I think it could make sense on a few levels.
Trading Parker would free up some cap space for Manu and Splitter, plus theoretically give the Spurs some cap space for two first round picks.
While Parker is (by a long shot) the youngest of the big 3, Hill is a much more viable replacement for Parker than there is for Timmy or Manu, and the FO has a better history of drafting PG’s over the last few years (Parker, Udrih, Hill) than any other position (I’m intentionally forgetting Scola).
I’d be very content if we can keep Ginobili and sign Splitter this off-season without blowing up the roster at all, but I think that Manu is more important to the team than Parker, so it would at least be worth a thought.
April 5th, 2010 at 9:46 pm
The FO needs to figure out a way to keep him. Duncan and him are what makes the spurs the spurs. True baller
April 5th, 2010 at 10:04 pm
I don’t get why everyone seems to act like Manu would be getting screwed over if he doesn’t get the ‘max’ contract. Do we all forget that a) even 3-8 million a year is a hell of a lot of money, and b) is Manu really such a big spender that he’s going to be financially unfit if he doesn’t make 30 million over the next 4-5 years?
Sorry but he’s no Kobe or Wade… He’ll for sure want a good deal, but money isn’t going to be the biggest factor… nor whether he can support his kids. Last time I heard, Manu wasn’t blowing his entire salary each year. It’ll come down to where Manu is treated with respect and feels he’s needed/wanted and can make an impact. With Pop, Duncan, and Parker, and all of SA… I like the Spurs chances.
April 5th, 2010 at 10:09 pm
Manu, is the man! and he is the spurs(now) and if we lose him, then we go into sub-par rebuilding stage….and money isn’t the world to manu, winning and being with family and friends, he said it him self and he said he would love to play along side scola again….watch for him to go to the rockets if we don’t resign him….i promise that one!
April 5th, 2010 at 10:30 pm
Somebody needs to convince RJ to opt out of his contract so the spurs can pay Manu the money RJ is taking away.
That’s the only way feasible, in the interim.
But no one would deny money. Threaten RJ by saying to trade him to a sucky team if he doesn’t opt out and take a lesser contract.
my friends aunt does the ultrasound for Manu’s wife and maybe she can convince his wife to keep Manu in SA haha
It could just work.
April 6th, 2010 at 2:11 am
@David G
I’m from Argentina and let me tell you that last season, Manu’s brother told in National television that the spurs offered him 6 million back in 2008 if he didn’t play in Beijing.
And one other thing, today the NT coach told a newspaper that Manu is thinking about playing the Olympics in London instead of playing in the World Championship. Here is the link:
http://www.ole.clarin.com/notas/2010/04/06/basquet/02174640.html
(it’s in spanish, sorry)
April 6th, 2010 at 4:25 am
I honestly don’t see why people are so worried about the Spurs’ supposed inability to pay Manu. Right now the Spurs are obligated to pay 56 million dollars in salaries next season. The luxury threshold will probably stay somewhere around the 68-9 million mark. This means that the spurs can offer Manu around 10 million next year, resign Bonner for about 3 and then fill up the roster with two or three minimum salary players. Yes they will probably move slightly into luxury tax territory but not by much. Under those circumstances I am inclined to believe that the franchise would be taking an even bigger hit by letting Manu go and thus doom the team to first round playoff fodder at best.
April 6th, 2010 at 4:32 am
A small addendum:
I realize that I completely forgot about Splitter. Now its not certain that he will be coming at all but the picture does indeed become a bit murkier if he opts to try his hand in the NBA. But I am guessing that since he is no longer bound by the rookie salary scale it would be possible to backload his deal to minimize the luxury cost this year. And since Jeffersons deal will come of the books a year from now thing will become much simpler then.
April 6th, 2010 at 5:20 am
@HJay: It’s not as pleasant as you imagine.
April 6th, 2010 at 5:29 am
We have $19,579,797.00 that will come off the books including Manu’s salary. That will leave us with 7 players that have guaranteed contracts. The league minimum is 13. If the front office wants to make our team a contender, we have no choice but to resign Manu. I say we give him a 3 yr - 27 Million dollar deal. When he is playing, he is worth it. I think there should be a clause to where if he is injured playing for the national team, that his contract be voided.. I dont know if thats possible or not.
Any way you look at it;
No Manu = No Championship
No Manu = FO loses tons of money from attendance
No Manu = Boring Spurs basketball
April 6th, 2010 at 6:46 am
HJay -
The the cap for 2010-11 is projected to drop to $50.4 - 53.6M (or about 5% from last year). Your $69.9M luxury tax figure is also projected to drop by a similar amount to around $65M for next year.
That means that if we want to resign Manu and put together a title contender + Splitter + our 1st round pick, you’re looking at $75 - 80M. That equals $10-15M is pure tax alone. That’s quite a hit for any organization, much less a small market team with limited earnings power.
April 6th, 2010 at 6:55 am
Could Manu make a crap-load of money somewhere else? Yes. But, I can’t see him playing with someone like LeBron or Kobe due to the type of game being played. I don’t think they can share roles of both going to the basket every time. I think he wants to win, make money, and have a significant role, where others don’t step on his toes. Now, what team can offer that? hmmmm….
April 6th, 2010 at 7:01 am
Anything less than a Championship will mean the Spurs will explore all options available including salary dumping RJ and trading Parker for a package of players. If we don’t win the titke no way will we see Manu, Parker, and RJ all in a Spurs uniform at the same time. I think the Spurs would extend Manu now if they weren’t so worried about not being able to get rid of RJ’s contract. One team that has a hole at SF and the cap space to absorb RJ’s salary is the LA Clippers, if the Clippers don’t get Rudy Gay, RJ could be a Plan B for them.
April 6th, 2010 at 7:08 am
@Tyler
If the luxury threshold falls as much as you say it will then this obviously becomes more of a dilemma.
As DieHardSpur wrote we have seven people under contract at 56M and lets say that Manu accepts a three year deal worth 27M. This deal certainly could be structured somehow like this:
First year 8 million
Second year 9 million
Third year 10 million
The first round pick will cost us 1 million and the three min wage players will together cost around 3 million
By then we have 12 players costing 68 million dollars and a pretty competitive core.
Then there are two questions unanswered (or really three). Do we resign Bonner and is Splitter willing to come and for how much? We will probably end up with one of those two meaning that the club could end up paying about 71-72 million dollars in wages. That is certainly a lot for a small market team but this is obviously the price that the club will have to pay if it wants to stay competitive.
Are there any obvious flaws in this analysis?
April 6th, 2010 at 7:10 am
So, total payroll + tax is going to be roughly $85-90M next season barring any offseason moves. Also, the Spurs will also lose out on the tax rebate that all non-tax paying teams receive. In recent years, it has been between $4-6M.
To simplify:
$75M (payroll) + $10M (tax) + $5M (rebate lost, which we usually get) = $90M in total salary.
Compare that $90M we will be paying next year to what we typically pay each year - about $65M when you factor in the tax rebate - and you’re looking at a payroll increase of 38% from the norm! That’s enormous! And I took the low estimates!
Now you see why there has been a sense of urgency on the part of most NBA teams to slash salary for the coming years. This is also a reason why the upcoming CBA negotiations/fight/brawl could get ugly.
April 6th, 2010 at 7:22 am
No, we pretty much agree on the #’s, although I think the market will push Manu’s salary higher, closer to $11-12M per on average (he did sign for below market value last time we resigned him).
In the end though, I think we do what it takes to resign Manu, even if that means 11-12 per. Holt, if nothing else, needs to fills seats and the only way to do that is to put a competitive product on the floor. The payroll hit he takes would most likely be less than the gate hit he’d take if we didn’t resign Manu and had no legit shot to contend.
But make no mistake - there is going to be a sense of urgency on the FO’s part to bring down salary this offseason and before next year’s deadline.
April 6th, 2010 at 7:30 am
I love the way Manu has played of late but everybody stop the “Manu is back” hysteria. He has played solid for a little over one month but that does not necessarily mean he will stay consistent for X amount of years. There is a reason we are fans and not GM’s because many of us will just see this one month and want to throw plenty of greenbacks into Manu’s bank account. GM’s and front office personnel on the other hand will see this current Manu and then look back at his recent body of work and then make a decision. As much as I enjoy Manu the Spurs team comes first and if we could dangle Manu for solid players, picks and/or cash then I say put Manu out there. I like the young studs of Hairston, Blair, Hill, Parker and the ones still in overseas and in D-league. Sure I’d love for the Spurs to retain Manu but not if he wants 14-15 Million a year. No way. No matter how much he’s meant to us.
April 6th, 2010 at 7:38 am
Yeah all those teams with plenty af salary space are quite scary especially since they are not all going to be getting LBJ or the marquee players. I however very much doubt that Ginobili would be willing to join a poor team even if it would mean a wage hike. He just doesn’t seem to be that sort of a guy. If however the Knicks or another such team would manage to entice a big name then Manu would be definitely be a very interesting addition to fill up the remainder of the cap.
So Ginobili will certainly have a big decision to make this summer. If he opts to leave (or the FO decides not to resign him) then I can only see the Spurs being an above average team at best in a very tough conference for the forseeable future. That in itself will cost the owners a lot of money in the long run.
April 6th, 2010 at 8:05 am
I agree with El Ganzo comments about signing Ginobili. He has played great lately because he has been our #1 option. Like it or not he he and Tony will share the bulk of the offense when he comes back. So his numbers will drop. I would love to see the spurs re sign Manu. It would have to be in the 10-11 million a year range for 3 years. Anything over that i think is to much of a risk considering his age and past injuries. Lets not forget he has help bring SA three championships. He has done more than enough for this orginization. If some other team offers him 12-13 then so be it. Let him walk and start re building. This will give us a chance to let hill blair hairston splitter (no reason we cant sign him if we dont resign manu) and start looking forward to the future.
April 6th, 2010 at 8:59 am
Firstly, I completely agree Ginobli is the ‘best of the rest (i.e. players not named ‘LeBron’, ‘Wade’ or ‘Bosh’)’ so to speak in this free agency class. I have no idea why people were thinking the likes of Johnson were above him… I mean SERIOUSLY? Joe Johnson?
Secondly, I reckon if we contend this year (i.e. get to the Finals) he wants to stay and the FO want him to stay. If we don’t get contend (i.e. blown out in 4 in the 1st round) Ginobli doesn’t want to stay and neither do the FO.
Thirdly… To cheer everyone up about Ginobli possibly leaving:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nejQMtkyLgY
April 6th, 2010 at 9:17 am
You can’t base Ginobili’s value based on play but if you did he would still deserve a fat contract. Ginobili’s value comes from the fact he’s tailor made for this market and he puts buts in the seats.
The Spurs do a great job of maintaining a good relationship with their season ticket holders. They literally treat them like family. Many of those folks have occupied the same seats since the Hemisfare Arena and are just as recognizable as some of the former Spur greats. Those season ticket holders have made it known to Spurs Mgmt. that if Manu is not signed they are not going to renew their season tickets. In this economy when there are only a limited number of folks in this market who can actually afford season tickets the Spurs will not risk losing a large contingent of season ticket holders.
I have to agree with the point that the SAEN columnist Buck Harvey made this past weekend and that is that Ginbobili’s recent play has made it an easier decision for the Spurs to re-sign Manu due to his recent stellar play. If Ginobili was playing as he did in the first half of the season then the Spurs would have a dilemma on their hands but it’s obvious he can still compete at a high level and his injury situation wasn’t a chronic ongoing issue.
April 6th, 2010 at 10:12 am
Isn’t the consensus here something like, Manu is the ultimate priority, in both gate revenue and winning (except for TD of course, but that’s beside the point)?
Meaning, amongst Parker, Jefferson, and everyone else (except MAYBE Hill or Blair), getting salaries cleared out is the thing. Of course, clearing TP or RJ’s salary is LIKELY to come with a trade request of including Hill or Blair in the deal.
April 6th, 2010 at 10:23 am
Tony will play tonight in Sac town
http://www.facebook.com/tp9network/posts/111370568890777
Hopefully he’ll have some sort of groove back by the playoffs. We need wins.
April 6th, 2010 at 10:49 am
I know it sounds crazy and all, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Daryl Morey is going after Manu on the DL this summer…it’d make perfect sense, and I think the Rockets could pull it off. If they end up keeping Scola I’d say it becomes a 70% chance of snagging Manu.
April 6th, 2010 at 11:02 am
phoebus -
Correct.
However, if we play well this postseason, I can see the FO only making minor moves and keeping the team intact, taking one more financial hit next year, and then letting RJ roll off the books. To me, that seems like the most logical outcome if the goals are to try and win before TD’s window shuts and to keep people in the seats.
I don’t think we’ll entertain the idea of moving TP though. And for what it’s worth, if push came to shove, I’d much rather let Blair go than Hill - Blair’s production at the PF spot is much easier to replace than Hill’s.
April 6th, 2010 at 11:29 am
Another way to think about resigning Manu, though, is to consider the total amount of the next contract rather than the per-year numbers.
Let’s say rather than trying to match the precise terms of teams like the Knicks, Heat, Bulls, etc. who might make a big push, we simply offer a 5-year deal at an amount that will allow us to re-sign him without having to gut the team. For example, if they offer 3 yrs @ $12 mil/year, we could offer 5 years at $8mil/year and still be offering Manu a better package of guaranteed money.
Yes, the last few years of the deal are almost certain to be a cap burden, but Manu would be the only long-term deal still on our books by that time, and one bad contract at that amount doesn’t kill your rebuilding flexibility if you rebuild mostly through the draft. Having a big expiring deal, especially if the new CBA brings in a hard salary cap, can actually be an advantage in certain situations.
If Holt is willing to take the huge tax hit for one more season, we could then bring over Splitter at mid-level money if he’ll take it, fill in w/ min. salary guys, and let RJ’s deal just expire after next season to reduce the long-term tax burden.
April 6th, 2010 at 11:46 am
If the Spurs need to dump salary to sign Manu, what they should do is trade Parker (or more honestly, give him away). Jefferson would be ideal but no one wants his salary. But Parker would make a lot of mediocre teams better. But I’ve argued for years that Manu is the engine that drives the machine. Parker gets Parker going, Manu gets the Spurs going. Last year at this time Manu was out and Parker was their number one option. Now honestly, was the team better a year ago or right now? It’s not even close.
And yes, Manu has only recently come around. But I think it’s because he wasn’t given the playing time necessary to get into a rhythm. If Manu had been starting from the get go this season he would have been back by December 1st, not February 1st.
The Spurs have made some bonehead moves in the last couple of years, but not re-signing Manu would be by far the dumbest of the dumb.
April 6th, 2010 at 12:05 pm
[...] Manu Ginobili’s place in the 2010 free agent class | 48 Minutes of Hell [...]
April 6th, 2010 at 12:13 pm
I have a cost effective solution:
Let Manu go and sign me. Sure, I suck, but I would be willing to take his minutes for the low low price of 2 million a year…
April 6th, 2010 at 12:15 pm
Trade RJ’s expiring contract for draft pick in the offseason and that is gonna take 16 mill of the books. 16 mill is more than enough to resign Manu and bring in Tiago. Start Hairston at the 3 and get him backup via free agency.
April 6th, 2010 at 12:34 pm
manufan
April 6th, 2010 at 12:15 pm
“Trade RJ’s expiring contract for draft pick in the offseason and that is gonna take 16 mill of the books. 16 mill is more than enough to resign Manu and bring in Tiago. Start Hairston at the 3 and get him backup via free agency.”
League rules prohibit that. If we trade RJ’s contract it must be for a piece (s) that add up to around $12 mil at the least. If what you were saying could be done, everyone would do it.
April 6th, 2010 at 12:47 pm
manufan -
I wish it were that simple.
April 6th, 2010 at 12:53 pm
Anyone see NBA Fanhouse ranked Manu #12 in the “Top 50 Free Agents this Summer”?? I know they were including guys who could possibly opt out and such… but behind Paul Pierce? Really?
April 6th, 2010 at 12:55 pm
A couple of things:
1) Sure Manu has played crazy for the past month, but lets not get carried away with everything. Lebron, Bosh, Johnson, and Wade haven’t been hampered by injury for the past year and a half. This is not lost on all the GM’s in the league. His market value will take some sort of hit with his injury history and his comittment to the National Team. This however is good news for the Spurs. I can’t see anyone crazy enough to give him $12-$14 mill/season.
2) If Lebron, Bosh, Wade, and Johnson all sign with their respective teams (which is very possible) who will be left to offer Manu big dough? New York? New Jersey? Maybe LA Clippers? Those teams have been cellar dwellers for YEARS!
3) Judging by these posts, many have forgotten that Parker is also a free agent next summer along with RJ and many think there’s a greater possibility for him to bolt than Manu. Provided we resign Gino, it would not be entirely illogical to look into Parker’s trade value in order to get a big to help Duncan or to get a few younger pieces. In fact, we could get much better pieces back from a Tony trade than from an RJ trade. Let RJ’s contract expire and then sign him for say $6-7$ mill/year. I know many of you won’t like to hear that, but after the last month you have to admit that the Spurs can win without Tony.
April 6th, 2010 at 1:03 pm
Tyler
April 6th, 2010 at 7:10 am
Thanks for fleshing out all the financial angles. It’s very easy for us fans to overlook the harsh realities of cobbling a team together.
El Ganzo
April 6th, 2010 at 7:30 am
Thanks for bringing the un-business-like “fan” in us all down to earth. Nice job!
It’s great to see that many of you are in varying degrees grappling with the “business” aspects of improving the franchise over the short and long term. Oftentimes a fan’s first inclination is to respond to great individual play, exciting “personalities”, winning every game regardless of why or how. As such, what fans often miss is looking under the hood for what makes a team’s engine not only start everyday, but at the underlying maintenance that must be attended to on a regular basis for the engine to run strong, smooth, and with great “success” for “many” years to come. And the fact is, sometimes that “engine” needs to acquire critical, NEW parts to allow optimal functioning for the longest period of time possible.
With that metaphor, and from an amateur mechanic, I’d like to leave with with a few thoughts about the Manu re-signing issue:
- sometimes it’s a smart thing to trade in (i.e., sign & trade) a favorite part BEFORE it loses its value and begins to deteriorate, or at some point malfunctions - otherwise at the most inopportune time one could be left stranded.
- there are KEY parts to an engine that without which the engine will not perform to its maximum (i.e., if we do not get another talented, TALL, shot-blocking defender in the paint next to Duncan, it is very unlikely that we will get a title again during TD’s closing window, and perhaps for many years to come).
- we cannot afford to overpay for a favorite, but relatively “old” part so that it precludes us from obtaining/affording the KEY part that is necessary for the engine to function optimally over a longer period of time (i.e., that’s why getting someone like Splitter, or better, is crucial for the engines long-term success - if we cannot get him, we MUST aggressively pursue other options to obtain the KEY part - yet I don’t hear much talk about this).
- it is usually not wise to trade in new & well-functioning parts (e.g., Hill, Blair), or overpriced parts providing under-performance (RJ) - it’s generally a lose-win proposition. Perhaps giving a tune-up (RJ) before next years trade deadline will allow us to obtain something closer to fair value in return. We’ll see, but we CAN’T consider trading him in now because most buyers will not be willing to pay the price, and/or we’d end up with a defective part in the end.
Any thoughts?
April 6th, 2010 at 1:08 pm
pop’s refusal to play (develop) ian might come to haunt the spurs in the playoffs and next year. don’t get me wrong, i love d.blair, but it’s painfully obvious against certain teams that he’s just WAY too small and pop’s refusal/stubbornness to acknowledge this has cost the spurs quite a few victories.
it almost seems as if, after refusing to pick up ian’s extension, the decision was made to bury him on the bench… for what purpose? not to showcase him for free agency? b/c it can’t be that he isn’t capable of contributing… i think we’ve all seen when he does manage to get off the pine that he is productive. so what then? who know really but that half-assed excuse about ian’s excessive fouling is just lazy and insincere. this might just be one of those ‘pop is a genius and he knows best’ moments that ends up hurting the spurs in the short term and long term. if i were ian, would i want to come back to this franchise next year?
this take on ian from tom ziller over at fanhouse:
The Skinny: Mahinmi has played sparingly in the pros, having been injured in 2008-09 and usually hanging around on the bench or in the NBA D-League as a Spurs prospect. When he does play, he performs. He ranks as the third best player in D-League history according to PER, one of its most efficient players, a great shotblocker and rebounder. So why does he see only garbage time in San Antonio? Beats me. Someone needs to unleash him, though.
April 6th, 2010 at 1:37 pm
Jim Henderson,
What you say makes sense from a strategic X’s & O’s perspective but that isn’t what Peter Holt and the management group are going to care about. They have had trouble selling out the AT&T Center at times this season and if they do not re-sign Ginobili that will become an even bigger issue next season not to mention a drop in TV ratings which would mean a reduction in ad and sponsorship revenue. They can’t afford to lose the revenue that can be directly attributable to Manu’s popularity.
The funny thing is that Pop went down this road before with David Robinson. Before Robinson signed his last deal with the Spurs they tried to low ball him and David refused to settle and made the Spurs look bad in front of fans who rightfully admired and appreciated him.
In the end Robinson wound up getting the deal he wanted and the Spurs still took a PR hit for trying to low ball the savior of the franchise.
April 6th, 2010 at 1:39 pm
@ jim
so……what is your opinion?
and also what exactly are your credentials? your posts are very eloquent and well written. i’ll give a pass on the condesencion of your analogy.
i suppose i speak from a fan’s standpoint, but it seems to me that manu will not let any sense of loyalty to the spurs franchise or the city of san antonio dictate his desicion. if he wanted to stay in s.a., i think he would have come out and said it. we and he knows it is just too tempting to finish a career possibly winning a title with the best player on the planet. can’t hate the guy wanting to go out with a bang rather than a pop and sizzle.
i won’t hate on manu. i can understand, as jim pointed out, both perspectives on whether or not we should keep him. manu fills our seats and gives us an immediate chance to keep winning, but this team knows we need pieces for the future.
i know it is a longshot, but that would be awsome if manu took a pay cut to stay with us so we can go get splitter or another piece to our current and future puzzle.
April 6th, 2010 at 3:23 pm
I can’t blame manu for not relenting and saying he’d give a hometown discount. The spurs had an opportunity to sign him up and decided it wasn’t a wise business decision to move forward at the time.
If it’s business it’s business.
As to the continued trading of the Frenchman.
Why do we think it’s a good idea to just give up talent?
There are 96 minutes available across two guard slots. If you play 32 per that’s three people. Would you prefer to have a guard rotation of TP, George (who is a combo guard leaning more toward the 2 than a combo guard leaning toward the 1), and hopefully Manu. Or would you prefer George + whatever scraps we can pick up for league minimum. If your trading TP away and you don’t bring back a PG we’re under done at the guard slots.
If you trade TP away and bring back a PG…then what the hell is the point of trading him in the first place.
I and many others have stated previously that TP works well within the spurs system. We are one of the best teams in the league in terms of passing the rock as a unit. We don’t rely on, nor do we want to be reliant upon a pure setting the table point guard. It would be a massive backward step.
I’ll take a team that can create shots for itself by executing another to death rather than a team that needs a Steve Nash to get it’s shots for it.
Thats the team that the spurs have been for the last decade. High IQ post play, making the extra pass playing excellent D, and being accomplished pick & roll executers.
I don’t mind TP coming off the bench, I don’t mind Manu coming off the bench, I don’t mind anyone coming off the bench, just so long as we maintain that style of basketball.
April 6th, 2010 at 6:30 pm
Something you need to keep in mind also is Manu said that he’ll listen to offers including those from Real Madrid and other good teams in Europe. If there isn’t any good team in the NBA that wants him for a decent amount I could still see him going to Europe. He said he would still consider Real Madrid.
April 6th, 2010 at 8:35 pm
Manu is an absolute Legend
FYI he is of Italian Parentage… his grand parents migrated to Argentina and he has dual citizenship.
April 6th, 2010 at 9:38 pm
Ha ha ha..Please, dejen libre a Manu. I wanna see him playing with Scola or Delfino; and all you guys, franchise’s ‘fans’(?) will see. Jaj(you haven’t strong heart, you dont’t understant who win championships. You can only see when money says. That’s a poor view of sports.
April 6th, 2010 at 9:57 pm
este
April 6th, 2010 at 1:37 pm
Fair points, but let’s agree on something: a basketball season is not a rock band on tour. Sure, Manu does a lot of intangibles and is fun to watch, but he’s not the only guy in the league that’s a fan-pleaser.
The fact is, an FO’s number one priority is always to build a very competitive team that is a threat to win it all, year in and year out. If a “rock star” is a part of such a mix it’s a bonus, but it is in no way at the top of their thinking.
The way the Spur system is structured is to have two talented bigs in the paint that are top-notch defenders, and at least one with excellent shot-blocking ability. Since TD is in decline, and is not a dominant shot-blocker anymore, we MUST have another TALL big next to TD in the paint that can defend & protect the rim. That’s the only way the Spurs get back to the finals, in my view. And it is this “being a true perennial threat” again for the title (getting to conference finals often, and a title 2-3 times a decade) that is most important to consistently filling up the AT&T center, as opposed to focusing all ones resources on signing a fading “rock star”, Manu, to an overly expensive contract, especially when considering his age and durability issues.
April 7th, 2010 at 7:27 am
From what i hear kobe’s a big manu fan and i think it would be interesting to see him play for the lake show since in the triangle u dont need a true point they could roll out quite a formidable staring five!
April 7th, 2010 at 10:30 am
3 years @ $40 M ? Wow!
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ys-ginobilispurs040710
Leave a Reply