The Margin: San Antonio Spurs 110, Houston Rockets 106
So Josh Smith joins the Rockets, and Spurs team without Kawhi Leonard and Tony Parker actually beat them? Weird. Houston has just had their number in recent years, and things have been sort of spiraling in the midst of a murderous stretch of schedule without the help of Kawhi and Tony. But, hey, Patty Mills! Anyway, it seemed like a good time for The Margin, which, in case you were unaware, is just a rip-off of The Difference (a Rob Mahoney staple) with a different name. It’s post-Christmas, which of course means it’s time to seriously basketball!
- In the seven games since Leonard last played, the Spurs are allowing 1.077 points per possession defensively; Compare that to the .963 (by far the best number on the team for anyone who’s played more than one game) figure they’ve allowed when he’s been on the court this season, and it’s not difficult to find a cause for such a drop-off. When Kawhi is off the court, it’s like a chain link being replaced by a rubber-band after it breaks — there might be some initial resistance, but push hard enough and it will snap. It triggers a sort of domino effect, where Danny Green has to slide over and take the opponent’s best perimeter option. Normally, the Spurs like to use him as a utility guy, using his length to deal with point guards or off-the-ball shooters. In turn, that forces guys like Cory Joseph, Manu Ginobili, and Marco Belinelli to take on more difficult assignments themselves, and we know how that typically works out. So, yes, the Spurs need Leonard back in a big way, but the last couple of games have actually represented some progress on the defensive side of the ball. Against the Pelicans and Rockets, the Spurs have allowed 1.022 points per possession, which would translate to a top-11 mark compared to the rest of the NBA over the course of the first two months of the season. And on Sunday night, San Antonio was at the mercy of some pretty crazy shooting from the Rockets (26-of-47 on contested field-goal attempts), in particular Corey Brewer, a career 29.6 percent 3-point shooter, who hit six of the eight 3s he took. I’m not rushing to judgment over two games, because accounting for the absence of someone like Kawhi will be a chore and a process. But progress is progress, and they were running a few different looks out there on the defensive side to make up for the lack of a lockdown individual defender.
- It really is amazing how much different things feel over the course of a game that involves Patty Mills. Welcome back #PattyMillsShotCount! Despite the struggles with his shot — this is obviously something you’d expect with a guy coming off surgery on his shooting shoulder — he created a burst of energy San Antonio’s been lacking for what seems like much of the year. And, speaking of defense, he made his impact felt. Mills was never known as a plus-defender until he started turning some heads last season, chasing ball-handlers the full 94 feet and sticking in their hip pockets, making it difficult to screen him. Party Thrills played 20 minutes in his first action of the season, including the majority of the fourth quarter; during that time the Spurs allowed just 85.8 points per 100 possessions. That guy is the Energizer freaking Bunny on speed, and it’s a lot of fun to see him back on the floor sooner than originally expected. Probably sooner than the team had hoped, honestly. On a side note: When you get a chance, go look at the Mills-Joseph-Green 3-man lineup advanced numbers from last night. In the seven minutes those three spent on the court together, the Spurs were 41.2 points per 100 possessions better than Houston. (On a second side note: Matt Bonner, king of the point differential, was in full force last night.)
- This won’t come as a surprise to some, but holy hell, Josh Smith was absolutely miserable last night; and if you’re looking for a lesson from the “How to Defend Josh Smith” textbook, find a way to watch some film on this game. The Spurs literally made it impossible for Smith — in his brain, at least — to NOT keep dribbling the basketball into trouble areas. If he caught the ball on a swing pass, whichever Spur was guarding him would sag back and set up a wall about 10 feet from the basket; if he was dribbling the ball in transition they’d clog the paint with bigs and stick perimeter defenders to their men awaiting a spot-up opportunity; if he received a kick-out from a post player, San Antonio would give a totally half-assed closeout. At one point, before Smith’s final shot of the game, he brought the ball into the front-court and ran a pick-and-roll with Dwight Howard. At this juncture, Howard screens Boris Diaw, who’s defending Smith, and Bobo is absolutely ecstatic to go under the screen…because why wouldn’t he be?
Then, Smith slowly dribbles toward the free-throw line, at which point Tiago Splitter figures he should at least put a body in the way. The image below was grabbed just before Smoove shot the ball and missed. Look at Tiago’s hands, they’re literally below his ass-line. I’m not even going to pretend to be interested in contesting you dribble-dribble-dribble-up 21-footer. Just shoot it. He did. It was so bad.
Smith’s usage percentage was over 20 percent last night, barely less than the number Tim Duncan put up in that regard. It’s so weird how far this dude has fallen over the last few years, but it’s really difficult to see how this acquistion will help Morey and his vision for the Rockets if they continue to use him like this. They really need Terrence Jones to come back healthy in the next month or two, but in the mean time, you can’t let Smith suck the life out of possessions the way he did last night. - The Spurs have played 23 games against the Western Conference — more than any other team currently in the top eight of the standings. Tomorrow’s matchup with the Grizzlies will mark the twelfth time this season San Antonio has faced a top-six team in the West, and by the time we ring in 2015 the Spurs will have played 34 games, including 18 in the month of December. Eighteen games — or, roughly 21.9 percent of the season — in 31 days! On top of a pretty difficult schedule (though most metrics actually have it middle of the pack, which is crazy to me considering they’ve played Golden State once, Portland, Houston, and Dallas twice, and Memphis three times after tomorrow), San Antonio has missed 94 games due to injury, a fairly staggering number that isn’t likely to be cut quickly given the uncertainty surrounding the injuries of Leonard and Parker. But the schedule does let up a bit. The next two months bring just 25 games total, including only five back-to-backs. Of course, some of that has to do with the eight-day All-Star break, but the Spurs will certainly take any and all of it.
This season has been wild so far. Typically speaking, the NBA is one of, if not the most predictable league in all of our major sports; at this point, it feels totally wide open. I do have a feeling, however, we’ll start to get a little more normalcy over the next few months, at least in terms of the cream rising to the top.
And while the Spurs have had their struggles at times, they seem to have found their heads on the offensive end. If they can continue to tread water defensively, and if Leonard is able to find his way back in the lineup at some point in the next couple of weeks, watch the 19-game stretch between the time the ball drops for the New Year and the start of All-Star weekend — in particular the nine games prior to that week-long break for festivities in New York.
With the way the West is unfolding, you never know what one long winning streak will bring. This is the most interesting NBA regular season I can recall in a while, and I think it’s only going to get crazier. The Spurs like to start their run prior to that February break, while other teams are making All-Star plans. Buckle up, friends, it only gets better from here.
Stats and video support courtesy of NBA.com.
