The No-Flash Flashpoint

by

Arguably the team's least flashy player has become a flashpoint.

In my recap of Monday’s Bucks-Spurs game, I touched on one of the team’s more controversial topics: The talent and usage of Matt Bonner. There are a proud few who claim that his ability to spread the floor and gaudy advanced statistics speak to his importance to the team, even if his vanilla-flavored style isn’t making any highlight reels. There are an equally passionate many who see Bonner’s limited defensive ability and one-trick-pony offensive style and insist he be relegated to the end of the bench.

I’ve danced around the subject numerous times but I don’t believe I have ever articulated just what I think Bonner is capable of and how often he should be used.

Let’s begin with his offensive repertoire. Bonner can shoot the long ball. He’s currently hitting 47.3% of the shots he takes from beyond the arc. If he is able to maintain that percentage it will be the best of his career.

After that, there isn’t much else. He is ineffective off the dribble, although his attempts to score in the lane have been less embarrassing than in years past. He even dunked the ball once. But for all intents and purposes, on offense he is there to spread the floor for Duncan and our cutters, and hit open outside looks.

His defense is another matter entirely. Offhand he seems to have no NBA-caliber defensive skills. He lacks lateral quickness, length and height. Obviously I’d love to say he makes up for that with confidence and aggression, but I can’t. He has shown more of those traits on the defensive end this season, and subsequently his rebounding numbers have crept up. But in the end his physical limitations overwhelm his basketball IQ and growing intensity.

Where does that underwhelming assessment leave him? With a Player Efficiency Rating of 17.3, third best on the team behind Duncan and Ginobili. In fact, his PER is not only better than former All Stars Parker, Jefferson, and McDyess, it’s currently better than notable players such as Kevin Garnett, Shawn Marion, Elton Brand, David West, and Lamar Odom.

It’s well known that PER undervalues defensive contributions (of which greater consideration would help the likes of a Garnett or a Marion) but that doesn’t change the fact that, in Hollingerian terms, Bonner has found himself rubbing elbows with an elite class of player.

Bonner’s plus/minus figures are equally if not more gaudy. By some calculations, he has the fifth best +/- on the team. By others, his +/- is the team’s best. Does this mean Bonner is more essential to the Spurs success than the big three or our big name offseason acquisitions? Of course not. But the burden of proof is steadily drifting away from Bonner’s supporters and in the direction of his critics.

Let’s get down to the important question: How many minutes should Bonner be playing a game?

Well, my response is, “What month is it?”

If it’s Novemeber or December or January, I want Bonner playing at least 20 minutes a game. But as we inch ever closer to the postseason, I want to see Antonio McDyess working his way further into the rotation, and Bonner becoming more definitively second string. In my opinion, during last year’s Spurs-Mavs series, Bonner had a chance to show he has the grit and poise to play postseason basketball. He didn’t take that opportunity.

Grit and poise are the least of my concerns when it comes to McDyess.  He’ll be ready mentally when the playoffs arrive. He already understands the defensive system better than any of our new players, and with a steady diet of 15 minute contributions will be more than ready to take on starters’ minutes come February or March.

My concerns are physical.

Until the early spring, I want McDyess resting his legs on those comfy fold-out chairs they’ve lined up along the edge of the court. We’re not paying him $4.5 million a year to win games in November. We’re paying him to win games in April and May.

More succinctly put, Bonner has proven to me that he can be a stopgap during the regular season. To the naked eye he may appear flawed but advanced statistics speak to how fluidly he fits into the system. But I’ve never felt he was a big-time, postseason player, and his mediocre performance during last year’s first round only solidified that notion in my mind.

  • jason

    I’m pro-Bonner, perhaps even more so than you are. As i’ve watched him play this season his increased intensity is what has really stood out, not just on the boards, but also on defense there is a noticable hustle with which Bonner has been making his rotations and closing out his man on defense. Any time Matt forces his defensive assignment to pass or take a dumb shot we should be commending him, this is all the team asks of him and he’s playing his role very well. My guess is that with 7 or so big men at our disposal, Bonner finds himself worrying about his minutes and place on this team, he has responded by upping his game

  • kalone

    Why is Parker’s PER so low? Do games played play that big a factor in Hollinger’s metric? If they do, I actually have no problem with this. In the end, being on the court is one of, if not the, most important part of being a contributing professional basketball player.

  • doggydogworld

    I think Bonner and Mason both got tired last year. It was a significant increase in minutes for both of them compared to prior years, and long-range accuracy plummets when your legs are fatigued.

    I tend to think of Bonner’s role as “spacing the floor for Timmy”. I also thought being on the floor with Timmy & Tony explained his high +/- . But lately most of his minutes have come when Timmy was on the bench and his +/- has only gone up.

  • Rick from LA

    In Bonners case, the sum is greater than the total of the parts. But I have a question. Could the Spurs put together a package to trade for Chris Bosh. It seems to me that if they’re going to have any chance against LA in the playoffs, they’re going to need another superstar big man.

  • Beat Counselor

    Gutsy article. I agree with the logic, but at the same time, hypothetically speaking, if Bonner were to shoot 42%+ for the season from beyond the arc wouldn’t it be hard for us NOT to play him as much in the post season?

    Using your same logic, wouldn’t it be wise to play Mason more minutes than Ginobili until the end of the season too?

    It does sound smart though.

  • http://www.poundingtherock.com Tim C

    Rick,

    You could also make the argument that the Lakers need another superstar guard to compete with the Spurs. But Fisher is solid, just like McDyess is solid. It’s going to be an epic battle, but I like our chances in a fair fight. The team that worries me is Portland – if Oden is really as good as he has looked lately, we are going to have a ton of trouble with them.

  • http://hellabasic.com thaddeus clark

    I agree with Doggy Dog – judging Bonner by last years playoffs is unfair as he and Mason both set career highs in minutes played during the regular season to compensate for Spurs injuries and empty bench play. The fatigue was evident as both of their shooting percentages plummeted as the year went on.

    If Bonner can stay within his current range of stats (which also mirrors last years contributions before his minutes went way-up) , then he’s a valuable player in the rotation. More importantly he gives the Spurs a chance vs the potential Lakers, Nuggets, Blazers play-off match-up by pulling one of their long-defenders away from the key and opening things for RJ, Duncan, Manu, and Parker.

    If you’ve been watching the games and not just reading the stats you’ll see that he belongs in the rotation and I’m willing to bet his defensive assignments would be different come April, May, and June – meaning he wouldn’t be guarding Star bigs for long stretches.

  • Ian

    Bonner can’t produce offensively in the playoffs where the opposing defense is a lot tough. I agree with you about reducing his minutes as the season progresses. His PER shows how useless stats are at accurately measuring a player’s worth. If there was Defensive efficiency rating, Bonner would rank somewhere around rock bottom. Bonner plays hard, no doubt, and he seems to know his role in this team, but I just don’t think he deserves 15+ minutes per game (even less if Haislip turns out to be a decent player – come on Pop, give him a chance).

  • Andrew

    Basing Matt Bonner’s playoff value on last season’s performance is completely unfair. There was only one player on the team that performed well against the Mavs and it was Tony Parker, although JJ Barea made him look like a revolving door on defense. Even Tim looked awful since his knees were in bad shape. Matt Bonner is not capable of being the #2 or #3 scoring option and of course he would fall flat in that role. The question is whether he can be a #5 or #7 when called upon in the playoffs and I think the answer to that is yes.

  • http://sabankshots.blogspot.com Jesse Blanchard

    I wrote this in the comments section on the previous post but I’ll repeat it here because it’s more relevant to this discussion:

    Bonner is the type of limited role player who struggles on poor teams that require more versatile and featured performers. But given a specialized role on a good team he not only flourishes, but in fact makes that team better.

    By the end of last season, as much as it pains me to say it, we just weren’t a very good team. Duncan was scoring 20 points against the Mavericks but he was doing it in a fashion that did not command a double team. That allowed the Mavs to concentrate on Parker.

    Compounding our problems, all of our role players were strictly three-point spot up shooters. That allowed the Mavs to sell out in their rotations, chasing people off the three-point line without fear of additional dribble penetration. That, as much as anything, contributed to Bonner’s struggles offensively.

  • http://sabankshots.blogspot.com Jesse Blanchard

    As for my own personal feelings on Bonner:

    I don’t mind him starting because he spaces the floor for our two best players (Parker and Duncan) and doesn’t need the ball constantly to be effective. My only problem last year was relying on him at times for heavy minutes. He brings a lot of positives but he is a limited role player and last season was playing out of that role.

    15-20 minutes I think is good. At worst, he’s someone who can fill those long minutes during the regular season and do it effectively. In the playoffs you can give him a quick check on his shot and if he’s on, he’s a game changer for us. If he’s off, this year we have plenty of options.

  • ruth bader ginobili

    doggydogworld makes a good point–Bonner’s +/- is good even when he’s not with Tim. It almost seems like he makes everyone else better.

    The 82games numbers say Tony-Manu-RJ-Duncan with Bonner is the best offensive and defensive 5-man unit.

    I say we ride the Bonner-train until it runs off the tracks! 28 mins for Tim, 27 mins for Bonner, and let Dice, Blair, and RJ divide the rest.

  • http://sabankshots.blogspot.com Jesse Blanchard

    @Kalone: Parker, remember, played sparingly in the preseason and training camp after a long summer of international ball. He also tweaked his ankle, which hinders speed and agility.

    Throw all of that in with new teammates for a point guard and an early season shooting slump from our three-point aces clogging up the driving lanes and you have an early season struggle. But he’s still put up some good numbers in several games this year.

  • rj

    i say ride the bonner train for now. without ginobili and tony parker yet to find his groove or his health, a couple of threes a game will be welcomed at the expense of occasional exploitation in the post. bonner has become more confident. his hustle and shot selection are superb, but his physical limiations are prevalent and there is really no blaming the guy. he lacks later quickness and length.

    if the spurs are going to compete for a championship, we need another youthful bigman to contest shots and fight for offensive rebounds. we do not have the frontcourt depth to match up with l.a. with bonner’s increased minutes and productivity, he could become trade fodder that with a mason or ginobili tossed in (pardon my blashpemy) could land us a decent, young big.

    let bonner fire away, then trade him.

    p.s.

    is anyone else irritated with rj? he seems like a guy who never worked to refine his game. its been athleticism the whole way for that guy

  • Daniel McA

    To Kalone
    PER is a per minute measure that doesn’t factor in minutes on the court, it’s based on production in time played, mainly focusing on efficiency of using possesions, as well as creating for others and rates of rebounding. Bonner tends to show up well as his shots are pretty efficient, his passing stats are suprisingly good for his position, and he rarely turns the ball over. He is limited, but knows those and hardly ever does things outside his comfort zone(Other than horrid drives to the basket). Hollinger also includes a value added and Estimated Wins added stat that include actual time on the court, and the number of minutes played, Which goes some way to including the value of playing 82 games.
    E.g. Sergio Rodriguez has PER of 20.44 so far this season, but as he has only played 9.8 minutes a game in 9 games, he has by Hollinger Stats contributed .4 extra wins, While TP has a lower PER(17.20) and has only played in 8 games, his 27 minutes a game mean that he has 0.7 Wins added, Higher that Sergio.

    Parker probably will get closer to his PER of the last few seasons, when he ranked 8th in the league, I’d say Rust and adjustment have a lot to do with the Lower than normal PER for him.

  • Bentley

    I feel like Bonner is just a better player off the bench. I feel like there is less pressure on him to produce when he isn’t guarding a starting caliber big man on the offensive end..and if the 23 points on 6-8 shooting from the arc doesn’t explain that, I dont know what does.

    Tony Parker has just looked a step slow all season. He doesn’t have the same burst of quickness we’re used to seeing and his jump-shot isn’t fluent. I wonder if this is because of his ankle, him missing games, or just the amount of time he played in Europe.

    And about RJ. There’s no way you can say that he hasn’t tried to refine his game. In this mleague you can’t just average 20 points a game without working hard at finding different ways to score..and he is a scorer. Once he gets more comfortable(wehich is a lot easier said than done) he will be able to show his scoring prowess a lot better than we can see.

  • zack

    God willing, if we make it to the WCF this is going to be great, i think if all our players are being productive we can beat the lakers for these reasons. I think this lineup can stop the lakers! (spec. 4 L.a )we start a parker/hill/rj/dice/timmy @(C)
    now think about that. hill will start and and be benched when kobe starts/benched. rj and artest will be interesting to see.now if anyones going to handle bynum it would be timmy, we can even try ratliff. dice guarded dirk really good, and i think he can guard gasol the same.fisher will be screwed but tony has to play D too. lets say the refs call bogus crap on hill well here comes bogans who guarded kobe as good as anyone.

    as for the bench i say we go ratliff, (haislip) for odom. if not then bonner is our best bet, bogans,mason, and manu running the point. bogans can help out on odom and ratliff will keep the inside D. i really think we have a good chance of beating them. most of these players have major playoff experience

  • duaneofly

    Statistics are good and all, but you know the best way to tell how good a player is? Watch a game, then another, and another, and another, and another, and you get my point now?
    You can tell me all about his per, or how great his plus/minus is compared to our other players, but my eyes told me that last season Bonner sucked and should have been sitting on the bench, not starting.

    This year, after being put on the second string, he’s done good. I was wrong there, Bonner has proven he deserves to be on the bench, just not the end of the bench where I thought he should be.

  • ThatBigGuy

    Bonner was hired to do exactly what he did last year, and this season he’s exceeding that. What more can you ask for from a role player? Role players who understand what they are paid to do are the backbone of this league.

  • Kaveh

    Well, I think that I am the biggest pro-bonner guy here, but i still agree in large part with the author’s write up. Bonner does not seem to be a post-season guy, at least not last year as he put up absolutely horrid numbers. Of course that really does not mean that he will repeat the same performance in this year’s playoffs.

    The part of the write-up i disagree with are as follows:

    1) The only benefit to Bonner’s game is not just that he can shoot from behind the arc. Another real positive about his game, and perhaps the sole reason why he has such a high PER, is his efficiency. This is the biggest attribute for a role player, in my opinion. At least on the offensive side of the ball. Bonner is the most efficient player on the Spurs team, and perhaps one of the most efficient in the entire league. This means that he does not waste possessions and is extremely smart with the ball. His TS% is a blazing 64%, but even more impressive is his eFG% which is at 62%. TS% takes into account free throws, 3pt shots and 2pt shots and gives you an effective FG%. eFG% does the same with 3pt shots and 2pt shots, since shooting 35% from 3pt land is much better than shooting 35% from 2pt land (50% better to be exact). Shooting 40% from 3pt land is like shooting 60% from 2pt land.

    This is the big fault i had with Richard Jefferson. RJ is a volume shooter, an inefficienct volume shooter. This is why i thought he would not be a fit in Spurs land because he lacks the efficiency necessary to be a good role player. Kobe and Lebron can shoot lower %s, but that’s because they get so many shots. If you shoot a lower number of shots, your % must be much higher. You must be a more efficient shooter. RJ has been doing really well this year, shooting a TS% of 56% and a eFG% of 51%. But even that is simply too inefficient for a role player, at least a good one.

    2) I think that you have too high hopes for Mcdyess. In my opinion he has been a big disappointment. Every number is down from last year, even if you compute them on a per-minute basis. His PER has fallen from 16.6 to 13.5, and this has nothing to do with the number of minutes he is player. That is a huge dropoff. The average NBA player has a PER of 15. Mcdyess has gone from above average to below average.

    Bonner does much more for you guys than Mcdyess. Mcdyess does have killer mid-range shot, but Bonner’s is better. Bonner also spreads the floor for players like Duncan/Manu/Parker/Jefferson, which Mcdyess does not.

    Come playoff time, Bonner may not play like he did in last year’s playoffs. He may play like he does during the regular season. And his attributes are more beneficial to the Spurs during the post season. Spreading the floor becomes more important during the playoffs, as the game slows down and the defense is tightened up.

    Also, this 4-man spreading the floor tactic is exactly what the Magic used last year to get to the NBA finals. It was with Rashard Lewis playing the 4. The Spurs are even better equipt to do so because of the other players on the team, especially Parker and Manu who both are lethal driving the lane.

  • Kaveh

    kalone
    November 25th, 2009 at 11:27 am Why is Parker’s PER so low? Do games played play that big a factor in Hollinger’s metric? If they do, I actually have no problem with this. In the end, being on the court is one of, if not the, most important part of being a contributing professional basketball player
    —————————

    The number of games played or minutes player, i believe, has absolutely no effect on the PER. Also, the pace of the game is factored out. For instance if Duncan scores 25 points in a game vs Boston, it is worth more than if Amare Staudamire scores 25 points against Goldan State, becuase the Suns and Warriors play at a much faster pace than the Celtics/Spurs. Points per possession is more important that total points is what i am attempting to say.

    Also, Parker’s PER is not that low. It is 17, which is respectable. The funny thing is that Hollinger projected Parker to have a PER of about 23 before the season started. He was projected to have one of the top ten PER’s in the league i think, or at least close to the top ten. That’s why i picked him up for my fantasy team, which now has made me sorely disappointed.

  • Kaveh

    Rick from LA
    November 25th, 2009 at 11:41 am In Bonners case, the sum is greater than the total of the parts. But I have a question. Could the Spurs put together a package to trade for Chris Bosh. It seems to me that if they’re going to have any chance against LA in the playoffs, they’re going to need another superstar big man.
    —————————–
    Sorry man, but the Spurs have absolutely no shot against the Lakers this year, lol. This comment will probably have me kicked out of this blog, but it is simply the truth.

    Since Pau Gasol came back, it has been a completely different team. They look so smooth and so dominant. It isn’t iso’s anymore, but an actual offense. They look down right unstoppable, and the biggest key is the advancement of Andrew Bynum. I believe it was the author of this blog, along with ME, during the offseason who said that Bynum was a budding star. Only to be ridiculed by others on this board. Well, Bynum is a true star, a 20/10 per night type of guy, shooting an incredibly high % from the field. Add that to Gasol, another 20/10 guy, and you basically have 2 Duncans on the team, lol.

    Oh yeah, Artest IS what he was cracked up to be. After watching all the lakers games, I have come to the belief that Artest is by far the best perimeter defender in the league. He just completely shuts players down. His strength is unbelievable. Also, he fits perfectly with the lakers because he is surprisingly an incredible passer.

    Oh yeah, and the best 6th man in the league (fine, maybe second to a HEALTHY Manu), Lamar Odom.

    Oh yeah, almost forgot about a little guy named Kobe Bean Bryant. L-E-G-E-N-D

  • kb

    Bonner is hitting shots and rebounding pretty well, but his time should be limited depending on what teams they play.(Maybe 15-20 minutes per)

  • duaneofly

    The Lakers looked pretty unstoppable in 08, until they hit the Celtics, oops.
    The Celtics looked pretty unstoppable in 09, until KG went out with an injury, dang.
    Bynum has been a “budding star” his entire, short career, except he’s been injured the past two years, who knows how he will hold up this year.

    Kaveh, the Lakers are the defending champs, they are the team to beat, but acting like they have the title won on November 26th is rather ignorant. Its a long season, injuries can happen, bullcrap salary dump trades can happen, teams get hot, etc etc.

  • bigtee

    can’t wait for march when this caterpiller turns into a butterfly. you guys act like you’ve never watched the spurs before pop is slowly building everyones confidence up, two weeks ago we wanted to get rid of bogans and now people are wondering why no one else signed this guy. I hate bonner and i think if haislip can find his shot it might spell the end of bonners minutes but until then i’ll cuss bonner until he hit one.

  • Grego

    There is less pressure on Bonner. He can take more chances and can play more aggressive. This is all good. Also coming off the bench gives him more chances to line up against other bench players. With more big men, Pop can play the matchups more than just with who he has.

    And then the Spurs have more defensive oriented players so Pop can hide Bonner much more than last season.

    As long as Pop can buy McDyess/Duncan/Manu more time, the better. Heck, if he can get Parker extra time off, the better.

  • OliverJ

    Man, nothing grates on me more than smug LA Fakers fans… pride before a fall. LA has had the benefit of 17-20 of their first games being at home ( David Stern clearly wears the yellow and gold ) , relatively easy opponents and a mostly healthy team. In answer to the LA post here, how do I spell Kobe? F-E-L-O-N . Bynum to me seems too soft mentally to become one of the greats.

    Anyway since this is a Spurs forum, my 2 cents, Spurs do need to find some consistency in their game, but as others have said, that’s what November-December is for. Bonner last year had some great games until Pop started using him heavily, then teams figured him out and shut down his shot.

    I like Bonner to start games , but I’d love for us to use an athletic big off the bench. Putting all our eggs in the McDyess/Ratliff basket could see an early playoff exit, especially considering the load on Timmy so far this year. Putting a package of Finley/Bonner maybe together for a young big (anthony randolf? dreaming…) would be great.

    Love the Spurs down here in Sydney Australia – been supporting them for many years, since the early days of the Admiral. Cheers all!

  • Mr. Anonymous

    Bonner is a good role player, and it would not be blind optimism to see this year’s playoff performance significantly better then last eyar – as there are a plethora of reasons why he could have been so much worse.

    On a random tangent, Timmy’s statistical production has been ridiculous. I can’t comment if he’s actually played well (I live in the UK and its quite hard to watch matches at like 2 am on schoolnights :P ). But 11 odd rebounds, 75% FTs, 55% FG & 3.6 assists in 30-odd minutes is pretty awesome.

  • ananuri

    Kaveh seemed somewhat knowledgable and objective when he was talking about other team, but as soon as he turned to his own lakers, suddenly all the intelligence was gone and replaced with admiration and worshipping. Must be a common treat for lakers’ fans…

  • Grego

    @Mr. Anonymous – Timmy’s been solid.

    Since Timmy has come back from injury, in his last 6 games, these are his numbers:

    33.4 mpg
    20.8 ppg
    60.4 fg% (8.2 fgm/14.8 fga)
    85 FT% (4.5 ftm/5.3 fta)
    10.7 rpg (3 off/game)
    4.8 apg
    1.7 to/game
    1.8 bpg

  • Hicksy

    I just can’t understand why if we are to fight through these growing pains anyway, why aren’t we trying top see wether Haslip/Harriston/Mahinmi can actually do what we bought them here for??
    @Oliver J love the Randolf idea can anyone tell me if this would work out $$ wise??
    Love the SPURS in Aussie !!!!!!

  • Grego

    @Hicksy

    Pop needs the core unit to begin to gel. It has been over the past 5 games. This is why Pop has been playing Malik more and gave Hailslip a chance. It didn’ t help that the unit with both of them in brought the lead down to 10 points.

    If they held the lead, they would have seen the full 4th quarter.

    With that said, the core unit still is not fully there. Growing pains are going to be there, but you want to focus on the guys who need it most (RJ, McDyess, Mason’s new role, Bonner’s new role, Hill’s new role).

    -Randolf is on a cheap contract, so GS would have to throw in another contract to equal balance out the trade.

  • J

    Now that’s he’s thankfully not the starting center, I think Bonner is making a nice contribution of three-pointers off the bench. Not many teams have 4 athletic big men in their rotation, so Bonner can come in off the bench when he can guard someone he can manage, leading to a net positive contribution to the difference in points scored by the Spurs and their opponent.

    Pop is a practical guy. As long as Bonner isn’t being asked to guard someone that outclasses him, he’ll happily take his three-pointers, benefitting by what Bonner has to offer instead of lamenting over what he lacks.

  • d

    i pray that we dont have to resort to matt bonner in the playoffs. he isnt really a consistent player i have seen games where he plays like a a bat out of hell dishing everything he gets his hands on and there are games where you think he doesnt even know how to spell nba. bonner can be a solid player if he were to be more aggressive on the defensive and drive the ball stronger to the hoop on the offense if only he could hone that size and strenght of his then his PER would be shown on his highlight reel. im on the fence about bonner right now if we give him too much of a chance we may be losing games but if we dont give him a chance at all we could in the end be hurting our chances even more